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At least 1,099 records · Page 61

Pulsed Thermal Tomography Nondestructive Examination of Additively Manufactured Reactor Materials and Components (Final Technical Report)

Metal Additive Manufacturing (AM) is a promising method for cost-efficient fabrication of complex shape structures for applications in harsh environment, such as in a nuclear reactor. However, internal defects (pores) occur in high-strength AM alloys, which are manufactured with Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) AM method. Pulsed Infrared Thermography (PIT) is an efficient nondestructive evaluation (NDE) method to examine actual structures, because this method offers one-sided non-contact measurements, and fast processing of large sample areas. However, imaging of material defects, particularly defects with sizes at microscopic level, is challenging. In this report, we benchmark the performance of several Unsupervised Learning (UL) algorithms designed to enhance imaging of microscopic defects in metals with PIT. UL aims to learn the latent principal patterns (dictionaries) in PIT data to detect defects with minimal human supervision. Performance of Independent Component Analysis (ICA), Sparse Coding (SC), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) was compared using F-score, UL model training time and defects reconstruction time. We obtained the average F-score of 0.75, and a highest F-score of 0.89 for the EFA algorithm. Overall, EFA outperforms other UL algorithms considered in this study. In another approach, we investigate Thermal Tomography (TT), which is a computational method for reconstruction of depth profile of internal material defects from PIT nondestructive evaluation (NDE). TT algorithm obtains depth reconstructions of thermal effusivity, which has been shown to provide visualization of subsurface internals defects in metals. In many applications, one needs to determine the defect shape and orientation from reconstructed effusivity images. Interpretation of TT images is non-trivial because of blurring, which increases with depth due to heat diffusion-based nature of image formation. We have developed a deep learning convolutional neural network (CNN) to classify size and orientation of subsurface material defects in TT images. CNN was trained with TT images produced with computer simulations of 2D metallic structures (thin plates) containing elliptical subsurface voids. Performance of CNN was investigated using test TT images developed with computer simulations of plates containing elliptical defects, and defects with shape imported from scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images. CNN demonstrated the ability to classify radii and angular orientation of elliptical defects in previously unseen test TT images. We have also demonstrated that CNN trained on TT images of elliptical defects is capable of classifying shape and orientation of irregular defects. Training the CNN on irregular defect shapes instead of on elliptical shapes would make the resulting classifications more descriptive of actual defect shapes. However, this requires a much higher volume of SEM images of material defects, which are difficult to obtain because of random occurrence of defects in LPBF. To address this challenge, we developed a generative adversarial network (GAN) to augment the existing dataset of SEM defect images. The GAN model is demonstrated to create novel yet realistic defect shapes that can be used as input for simulated PTT images to train CNN. We also investigate several approaches based on Gaussian Random Circle and Bezier Curves for constructing parametric models of irregular-shape defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quantitative assessment of eddy viscosity rans models for turbulent mixed convection in a differentially heated plane channel

Turbulent mixed convection between two vertical, infinite parallel plates at different temperatures is studied using various two-equation turbulence models. The numerical simulations are performed at a turbulent Reynolds number of Re τ = 150 and a Grashof number of Gr = 9.6 × 10 5 . Comparisons are made against the highly trusted DNS results. Consistent with the DNS approach, the current simulations are performed using constant properties and the Boussinesq approximation to predict the influence of buoyancy. Previous studies have provided assessments of two-equation turbulence models for various scenarios, but often rely on a qualitative “eye” test in order to determine the most appropriate model to predict a given flow. This study aims to provide a new form of quantitative assessment that accounts for both the physics captured by the turbulence model as well as the magnitude of the system response quantities (SRQ) using a modified symmetric mean absolute percent error (SMAPE) method. This method is designed to be approachable to researchers at any level and can be applied to system response quantities from multiple research fields. Uncertainty quantification is also performed to determine the discretization error for each turbulence model. Recommendations are made as to which turbulence models best capture the physics – hydrodynamically and thermally – using both local and global validation metrics. Lastly, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the damping functions used in the most accurate models. This underpins the potential of model developments and adjustments most worth pursuing for buoyant flows. Finally, this framework provides a more physics-based comparative analysis of the selected turbulence models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A numerical evaluation of the ambient air temperature in the Electron-Ion Collider tunnel

The Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) is a next-generation collider-accelerator that may require consistent operating temperature conditions for the beams within the accelerator tunnels to maintain stable operation. Variations in ambient temperature within the tunnel can cause thermal expansion of beampipe and component supports and can negatively affect the tunnel equipment, impacting the stability of the beamline. Modifications will be made to the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to create the EIC, which necessitates a temperature model that addresses these modifications. To approach this problem, the consistency of temperature changes in different tunnel sections was first evaluated by plotting RHIC tunnel temperature data at various times of the day and year. From this data, a tunnel section was selected and a 2D temperature model was created for RHIC, EIC, and EIC with added cooling configurations. Soil temperature data was analyzed to determine the maximum, average, and mode soil temperatures, which were used as boundary conditions in different temperature scenarios. Computational fluid dynamics modeling was used to create 2D temperature profiles for the configurations. From this model, the predicted temperatures indicate that further analysis is required to validate the boundary conditions and benchmark the current conditions to allow the prediction of the tunnel ambient conditions at EIC. This research can be used as a preliminary model to create an EIC tunnel cooling system that will increase the operational stability of the EIC. As a result of my work this summer, I have become familiar with computational fluid dynamics, including creating fluid dynamic simulations using ANSYS Fluent and related software. I have also learned about the project process required for planning large-scale engineering projects.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Assessment of Readout Techniques for Passive Monitors

This fiscal year (FY) 2023 report on passive temperature sensors covers two main objectives: to demonstrate that the optical dilatometer can successfully process disc shaped silicon carbide (SiC) temperature monitors (TMs), and to demonstrate proof of concept for using the capacitance readout method to read printed melt wires. The SiC objective was successfully met by annealing and analyzing, via optical dilatometry, all eight 3-mm SiC discs provided by the Nuclear Science User Facilities (NSUF) Idaho State University (ISU) Nanostructured Steels for Enhanced Radiation Tolerance (N SERT) experiment, which was irradiated at Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). Per the ISU N SERT experiment, capsule 1 (KGT 3828 1 and KGT 3828-2) had a design temperature of 300°C +/- 50°C and an exposure of 2 dpa +/- 10%; capsule 2 (KGT 4600 and KGT 4609) had a design temperature of 300°C +/- 50°C and an exposure of 6 dpa +/- 10%; capsule 3 (KGT 4639 C and KGT 4639-D) had a design temperature of 500°C +/- 50°C and an exposure of 6 dpa +/- 10%; and capsule 4 (KGT 3841 3 and KGT 3841 4) had a design temperature of 500°C +/- 50°C and an exposure of 2 dpa +/- 10%. The target exposure rates, in dpa, are the neutron damage for various types of nanostructured steels. All but three SiC TMs (KGT 4600, KGT 4639 D, and KGT 3841 4) revealed averaged peak irradiation temperatures that fell within the design temperature ranges. The three SiC TMs that did not fall within the design temperatures ranges were at least 100°C below that target temperature. Furthermore, SiC TM KGT 3841 C revealed two irradiation regimes: one closer to the 300°C design temperature, and the other closer to the 500°C design temperature. Also, all the SiC TMs’ averaged peak irradiation temperatures came in anywhere between 20°C and 240°C below the irradiation temperatures predicted by the thermal models. This showed the optical dilatometry method to be a reliable and less time intensive process for determining averaged peak irradiation temperatures from passive SiC TMs such as rods and discs. Under the Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation (ASI) program in FY-23, Boise State University (BSU) proposed to demonstrate proof of concept for using a capacitance readout technique applicable to printed melt wires; however, they were stymied by the complexity of the capacitance readout method. In support of the BSU work, INL developed an additively manufactured (AM) ceramic package for encapsulating the new melt wires. Inks were synthesized at BSU that used new protocols rather than following previously established protocols implemented at INL, and testing of various temperatures was conducted at BSU to evaluate the melting behaviors of the printed melt wires. The result was that the capacitance readout technique showed promise but also created more challenges than originally anticipated. For example, the tin ink synthesized at BSU showed unusual melting behaviors that did nothing to enhance the performance of the final printed melt wire prototype in terms of the capacitance readout method. To make the proof of concept work when applied to the printed melt wires, the ASI program would need to invest further resources and time. Consequently, the program is not planning to continue this proof of concept work in FY-24, based on the progress and findings achieved in FY-23.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tail Dependence as a Measure of Teleconnected Warm and Cold Extremes of North American Wintertime Temperatures

Current models for spatial extremes are concerned with the joint upper (or lower) tail of the distribution at two or more locations. Such models cannot account for teleconnection patterns of 2-m surface air temperature ( T 2m ) in North America, where very low temperatures in the contiguous United States may coincide with very high temperatures in Alaska in the wintertime. This dependence between warm and cold extremes motivates the need for a model with opposite-tail dependence in spatial extremes. This work develops a statistical modeling framework that has flexible behavior in all four pairings of high and low extremes at pairs of locations. In particular, we use a mixture of rotations of common Archimedean copulas to capture various combinations of four-corner tail dependence. We study teleconnected T 2m extremes using ERA5 of daily average 2-m temperature during the boreal winter. Further, the estimated mixture model quantifies the strength of opposite-tail dependence between warm temperatures in Alaska and cold temperatures in the midlatitudes of North America, as well as the reverse pattern. These dependence patterns are shown to correspond to blocked and zonal patterns of midtropospheric flow. This analysis extends the classical notion of correlation-based teleconnections to considering dependence in higher quantiles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electron-impact ionization from excited states method

We present a distorted-wave with exchange (DWE) formulation for computing electron-impact ionization (EII) cross sections within the recently developed excited states method (ESM) for plasmas. The ESM provides a self-consistent quantum-mechanical description of both bound and continuum electronic states in dense plasmas, incorporating finite-temperature and screening effects absent in isolated-atom approaches. Using this framework, we calculate EII cross sections for lithium across a wide range of temperatures and densities. We show that the ESM reproduces the isolated-atom limit at low densities while capturing strong plasma effects, such as pressure ionization and shape resonances, at solid density. Comparisons with isolated-atom DWE and average-atom (AA) calculations reveal that, although AA cross sections can approximate configuration average behavior, the ESM provides more accurate, state-resolved answers. In conclusion, these results demonstrate that the ESM allows one to obtain rate coefficients for collisional-radiative modeling of plasmas out of local thermodynamical equilibrium.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Real-Time Fault Tracking and Ground Motion Prediction for Large Earthquakes With HR-GNSS and Deep Learning

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems aim to forecast the shaking intensity rapidly after an earthquake occurs and send warnings to affected areas before the onset of strong shaking. The system relies on rapid and accurate estimation of earthquake source parameters. However, it is known that source estimation for large ruptures in real-time is challenging, and it often leads to magnitude underestimation. In a previous study, we showed that machine learning, HR-GNSS, and realistic rupture synthetics can be used to reliably predict earthquake magnitude. This model, called Machine-Learning Assessed Rapid Geodetic Earthquake model (M-LARGE), can rapidly forecast large earthquake magnitudes with an accuracy of 99%. Here, we expand M-LARGE to predict centroid location and fault size, enabling the construction of the fault rupture extent for forecasting shaking intensity using existing ground motion models. We test our model in the Chilean Subduction Zone with thousands of simulated and five real large earthquakes. The result achieves an average warning time of 40.5 s for shaking intensity MMI4+, surpassing the 34 s obtained by a similar GNSS EEW model. Our approach addresses a critical gap in existing EEW systems for large earthquakes by demonstrating real-time fault tracking feasibility without saturation issues. This capability leads to timely and accurate ground motion forecasts and can support other methods, enhancing the overall effectiveness of EEW systems. Additionally, the ability to predict source parameters for real Chilean earthquakes implies that synthetic data, governed by our understanding of earthquake scaling, is consistent with the actual rupture processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling of Supercritical CO2 Shell-and-Tube Heat Exchangers Under Extreme Conditions: Part II: Heat Exchanger Model

Abstract Heat exchangers play a critical role in supercritical CO2 Brayton cycles by providing necessary waste heat recovery. Supercritical CO2 thermal cycles potentially achieve higher energy density and thermal efficiency operating at elevated temperatures and pressures. Accurate and computationally efficient estimation of heat exchanger performance metrics at these conditions is important for the design and optimization of sCO2 systems and thermal cycles. In this paper (Part II), a computationally efficient and accurate numerical model is developed to predict the performance of shell-and-tube heat exchangers (STHXs). Highly accurate correlations reported in Part I of this study are utilized to improve the accuracy of performance predictions, and the concept of volume averaging is used to abstract the geometry and reduce computation time. The numerical model is validated by comparison with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and provides high accuracy and significantly lower computation time compared to existing numerical models. A preliminary optimization study is conducted and the advantage of using supercritical CO2 as a working fluid for energy systems is demonstrated.

Engineering↗

Effective climate sensitivity distributions from a 1D model of global ocean and land temperature trends, 1970–2021

Abstract Current theoretically based Earth system models (ESMs) produce Effective Climate Sensitivities (EffCS) that range over a factor of three, with 80% of those models producing stronger global warming trends for 1970–2021 than do observations. To make a more observationally based estimate of EffCS, a 1D time-dependent forcing-feedback model of temperature departures from energy equilibrium is used to match measured ranges of global-average surface and sub-surface land and ocean temperature trends during 1970–2021. In response to two different radiative forcing scenarios, a full range of three model free parameters are evaluated to produce fits to a range of observed surface temperature trends (± 2σ) from four different land datasets and three ocean datasets, as well as deep-ocean temperature trends and borehole-based trend retrievals over land. Land-derived EffCS are larger than over the ocean, and EffCS is lower using the newer Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245, 1.86 °C global EffCS, ± 34% range 1.48–2.15 °C) than the older Representative Concentration Pathway forcing (RCP6, 2.49 °C global average EffCS, ± 34% range 2.04–2.87 °C). The strongest dependence of the EffCS results is on the assumed radiative forcing dataset, underscoring the role of radiative forcing uncertainty in determining the sensitivity of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations from observations alone. The results are consistent with previous observation-based studies that concluded EffCS during the observational period is on the low end of the range produced by current ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development & Experimental Validation of a Generalized Resistance-Capacitance Model for Numerical Simulation of Phase-Change Material Embedded Heat Exchangers

Latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) using phase change material (PCM) has attracted increased attention as a viable solution for overcoming the mismatch between energy supply and demand for renewable energy-based systems. PCM-embedded heat exchangers (PCM-HX) have the potential to significantly improve thermal performance due to high storage capacity and low temperature variation during the phase change process. Most models for simulating LHTES heat transfer use Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations, which have high computational costs resulting from considering the complex and time-dependent physics relevant to PCM-HXs. In this paper, a Generalized Resistance Capacitance-based Model (GRCM) was developed to predict the thermal performance of arbitrary PCM-HXs in a computationally efficient manner without compromising modeling accuracy. The GRCM is exercised for three case studies: (i) verification for a single-slabbed finned PCM-HX, (ii) verification and validation for a copper foam/paraffin composite PCM-HX, and (iii) validation for a straight tube annular finned PCM-HX. The copper foam PCM-HX uses an electric heater at the top of HX, while the other two configurations utilize water as heat transfer fluid. For the single-slabbed finned PCM-HX melting case, the mean deviation in average PCM temperature predicted by the GRCM compared to the CFD model was between 0.56 – 0.73 K, with maximum temperature deviation of 2.68 K. For the HTF outlet temperature, the validation results showed that GRCM prediction matches very well with experimental data, with mean temperature deviation of 0.24 K during melting case, while for solidification case was 0.34 K. These results showcase the GRCM’s capability for accurately reproducing the thermal characteristics of PCM-HXs with considerably lower computational effort.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Wave Energy Converter Control Competition: Overview

Over the past two years, a wave energy converter control systems competition (WECCCOMP) has been in progress, with the objective of comparing different wave energy converter (WEC) control paradigms on a standard benchmark problem. The target system is a point absorber, corresponding to a single float with an absolute reference, of the WaveStar WEC prototype. The system was modelled in WEC-Sim, with the hydrodynamic parameters validated against tank test data. Competitors were asked to design and implement a WEC control system for this model, with performance evaluated across six sea states. The evaluation criteria included a weighted combination of average converted power, peak/average power, and the degree to which the system physical constraints were exploited or temporarily exceeded.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Phase transformation mechanism in irradiation-induced superlattice formation

Atomic kinetic Monte Carlo simulations were used to model void superlattice formation under irradiation in molybdenum, driven by anisotropic diffusion of self-interstitial atoms. A change in the phase transformation mechanism from nucleation and growth to spinodal decomposition occurred with increasing dose rate, with both mechanisms leading to superlattice formation. Analysis of a rate-theory based analytical model showed that an observed change in the kinetics of vacancy accumulation, the appearance of a region of positive second derivative in the plot of average vacancy concentration versus time, was caused by the onset of spinodal instability. Further, the analytical model showed that for molybdenum and several other metals where void superlattice formation is commonly observed, the phase transformation likely occurs by nucleation and growth. However, nickel may offer the possibility of experimental observation of the transition between phase transformation mechanisms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The effect of a transducer’s spatial averaging on an elastodynamic guided wave’s wavenumber spectrum

Elastodynamic guided waves propagate in an elastic solid which makes it difficult, if not impractical, to place a receiving transducer in the direct path of the propagating wave (as one would for an acoustic wave in a fluid medium). Thus, to account for this, receiving transducers are often placed on the surface of the solid waveguide such that the transducer surface is parallel to the wave propagation direction. This transducer orientation introduces spatial averaging, which causes the received signal to have an altered signal amplitude and mode bias. We investigate both of these effects and present a simple model from which we derive a scaling-ratio expression that describes the effects of spatial averaging. Furthermore, we then test its performance using finite-element simulations that incorporate “real-world” assumptions (e.g., transient waves, piezoelectric effects, etc.). The results from the simulations demonstrate that the scaling-ratio can characterize the effects resulting from spatial averaging. The scaling-ratio expression will be particularly useful when designing experiments involving high frequency (small wavelength) guided waves. Lastly, the proposed scaling-ratio expression could be applied to other sensing methods, like Laser Doppler Vibrometry (LDV) or piezoelectric waveguides with inter-digitated transducers, because of its generality. However, the authors are careful to note that the scaling-ratio expression is not intended as a replacement of multi-physics analysis or good experimental design, and the effects of spatial averaging should be avoided whenever possible.

2DFFT↗

Numerical simulation of the hot-tail runaway electron production mechanism using CQL3D and comparison with Smith–Verwichte analytical model

Abstract The hot-tail mechanism of runaway electron (RE) production (Harvey et al 2000 Phys. Plasmas 7 4590) is the primary source of RE in the case of rapidly cooling tokamak plasma. Quantifying this mechanism is very important as it can provide most of the post-thermal-quench (TQ) current, or a seed current for the secondary source of RE through the avalanche mechanism. An analytic model which omits pitch-angle scattering is often used in literature for estimating the hot-tail RE density (Smith and Verwichte 2008 Phys. Plasmas 15 072502). In the present study, we use the CQL3D bounce-averaged Fokker–Planck code (Harvey and McCoy 1992 Proc. IAEA Technical Committee Meeting on Advances in Simulation and Modeling of Thermonuclear Plasmas p 527) to test the limits of validity of the model. In particular, we examine the cases of Z = 1 and Z = 18 ions, for sets of different initial temperature, density, electric field and the characteristic time of temperature decay. We show that for Z = 1 plasma, the ratio of RE density computed by CQL3D to that estimated from the model is within 0.6–6.0 in studied cases. For the Z = 18 case, this factor is systematically a much smaller number, typically 0.02–0.6. We suggest a simple correction to the model that narrows down the range of this ratio to 0.3–3.8 in all of the cases, including Z = 1 and Z = 18 plasmas.

Physics↗

The influence of dietary intake of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids on the association between short-term exposure to ambient nitrogen dioxide and respiratory and cardiovascular outcomes among healthy adults

Background: Short-term exposure to ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) is associated with adverse respiratory and cardiovascular outcomes. Supplementation of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) has shown protection against exposure to fine particulate matter. This study aims to investigate whether habitual omega-3 PUFA intake differentially modify the associations between respiratory and cardiovascular responses and short-term exposure to ambient NO 2 . Methods: Sixty-two healthy participants were enrolled into low or high omega-3 groups based on their habitual omega-3 PUFA intake. Each participant was repeatedly assessed for lung function, blood lipids, markers of coagulation and fibrinolysis, vascular function, and heart rate variability (HRV) in up to five sessions, each separated by at least 7 days. This study was carried out in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina, USA between October 2016 and September 2019. Daily ambient NO 2 concentrations were obtained from an area air quality monitoring station on the day of outcome assessment (Lag0), 4 days prior (Lag1-4), as well as 5-day moving average (5dMA). The associations between short-term exposure to NO 2 and the measured indices were evaluated using linear mixed-effects models stratified by omega-3 levels and adjusted by covariates including relative humidity and temperature. Results: The average concentration of ambient NO 2 during the study periods was 5.3±3.8 ppb which was below the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). In the high omega-3 group, an interquartile range (IQR) increase in short-term NO 2 concentrations was significantly associated with increased lung function [e.g. 1.2% (95%CI: 0.2%, 2.2%) in FVC at lag1, 2.6% (95%CI: 0.4%, 4.8%) in FEV1 at 5dMA], decreased blood lipids [e.g. -2.6% (95%CI: -4.4%, -0.9%) in total cholesterol at lag2, -3.1% (95%CI: -6.1%, 0.0%) in HDL at 5dMA, and -3.1% (95%CI: -5.5%, -0.7%) in LDL at lag2], improved vascular function [e.g. 8.9% (95%CI: 0.6%, 17.2%) increase in FMD and 43.1% (95%CI: -79.8%, -6.3%) decrease in endothelin-1 at 5dMA], and changed HRV parameters [e.g. -7.2% (95%CI: -13.6%, -0.8%) in HFn and 13.4% (95%CI: 0.2%, 28.3%) in LF/HF ratio at lag3]. In the low omega-3 group, an IQR increase in ambient NO 2 was associated with elevations in coagulation markers (von Willebrand Factor, D-dimer) and a decrease in HRV (very-low frequency); however, null associations were observed between short-term NO 2 exposure and changes in lung function, blood lipids, and vascular function. Conclusions: The results in this study imply that dietary omega-3 PUFA consumption may offer respiratory and vascular benefits in response to short-term exposure of healthy adults to NO 2 levels below the NAAQS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Synthetic modeling of soft x-ray emissivity for magnetic island analysis in LTX-β

We present a synthetic soft x-ray (SXR) forward-modeling framework that characterizes the emissivity structure of rotating magnetic islands in the Lithium Tokamak eXperiment-β across space and time. Magnetic islands associated with tearing modes produce modulations in line-integrated SXR brightness. Traditional tomographic methods struggle to resolve these structures in devices with limited sightlines, resulting in an under-determined inversion problem, or otherwise necessitate equilibrium reconstruction data, preventing their use in active control. Our approach removes this challenge by combining a fully three-dimensional ray-tracing model with a time-dependent emissivity prescription of a $m/n$ = 2/1 magnetic island. The model is validated through helical island geometry, rotation measured by magnetic diagnostics, and equilibrium constraints from PSI-Tri reconstructions. Synthetic brightness signals are generated for each photodiode sightline from a modeled emissivity profile and directly compared with experimental data from a tangential midplane SXR array. By fitting the synthetic diagnostic output to the observed brightness across time, we simultaneously infer key geometric parameters-such as island radial location, island width, and rotation frequency-without requiring full tomographic reconstruction, all with an average absolute deviation of less than 3%. This work demonstrates that forward modeling with a single tangential array can extract key island parameters in a spherical tokamak, providing a computationally efficient alternative to conventional SXR tomography and providing a pathway toward real-time magnetic-island characterization in future devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Demonstration of new fracture criteria based on micro-structure and compare to empirical model and measurements

The US nuclear industry is currently exploring extending the peak rod average burnup limits above the current regulatory limit of 62 GWd/tU. A potential concern for fuel exceeding the burnup limit is the fragmentation during a temperature transient such as a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). In the event of cladding failure, the fragmented fuel could relocate and disperse within the reactor. The potential impact of fuel fragmentation, relocation and dispersal (FFRD) on licensing assumptions for burnup extension has focused a great amount of efforts and research on this topic.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗