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Review of Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Ground Test Options

High efficiency rocket propulsion systems are essential for humanity to venture beyond the moon. Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) is a promising alternative to conventional chemical rockets with relatively high thrust and twice the efficiency of highest performing chemical propellant engines. NTP utilizes the coolant of a nuclear reactor to produce propulsive thrust. An NTP engine produces thrust by flowing hydrogen through a nuclear reactor to cool the reactor, heating the hydrogen and expelling it through a rocket nozzle. The hot gaseous hydrogen is nominally expected to be free of radioactive byproducts from the nuclear reactor; however, it has the potential to be contaminated due to off-nominal engine reactor performance. NTP ground testing is more difficult than chemical engine testing since current environmental regulations do not allow/permit open air testing of NTP as was done in the 1960's and 1970's for the Rover/NERVA program. A new and innovative approach to rocket engine ground test is required to mitigate the unique health and safety risks associated with the potential entrainment of radioactive waste from the NTP engine reactor core into the engine exhaust. Several studies have been conducted since the ROVER/NERVA program in the 1970's investigating NTP engine ground test options to understand the technical feasibility, identify technical challenges and associated risks and provide rough order of magnitude cost estimates for facility development and test operations. The options can be divided into two distinct schemes; (1) real-time filtering of the engine exhaust and its release to the environment or (2) capture and storage of engine exhaust for subsequent processing.

Coote, David J.↗

Optical beam forming techniques for phased array antennas

Conventional phased array antennas using waveguide or coax for signal distribution are impractical for large scale implementation on satellites or spacecraft because they exhibit prohibitively large system size, heavy weight, high attenuation loss, limited bandwidth, sensitivity to electromagnetic interference (EMI) temperature drifts and phase instability. However, optical beam forming systems are smaller, lighter, and more flexible. Three optical beam forming techniques are identified as applicable to large spaceborne phased array antennas. They are (1) the optical fiber replacement of conventional RF phased array distribution and control components, (2) spatial beam forming, and (3) optical beam splitting with integrated quasi-optical components. The optical fiber replacement and the spatial beam forming approaches were pursued by many organizations. Two new optical beam forming architectures are presented. Both architectures involve monolithic integration of the antenna radiating elements with quasi-optical grid detector arrays. The advantages of the grid detector array in the optical process are the higher power handling capability and the dynamic range. One architecture involves a modified version of the original spatial beam forming approach. The basic difference is the spatial light modulator (SLM) device for controlling the aperture field distribution. The original liquid crystal light valve SLM is replaced by an optical shuffling SLM, which was demonstrated for the 'smart pixel' technology. The advantages are the capability of generating the agile beams of a phased array antenna and to provide simultaneous transmit and receive functions. The second architecture considered is the optical beam splitting approach. This architecture involves an alternative amplitude control for each antenna element with an optical beam power divider comprised of mirrors and beam splitters. It also implements the quasi-optical grid phase shifter for phase control and grid amplifier for RF power. The advantages are no SLM is required for this approach, and the complete antenna system is capable of full monolithic integration.

Wu, Te-Kao↗

X-ray sources in regions of star formation. 5: The low mass stars of the Upper Scorpius association

We report followup investigations of Einstein x-ray observations of the Upper Scorpius OB association. We identify 28 low mass pre-main sequence stars as counterparts of x-ray sources in the approximately = 7 square degrees of the OB association observed. Based on kinematics and lithium abundances, these stars are low mass members of the OB association. We use optical spectra and optical and near-IR photometry to determine the stellar luminosities, effective temperatures, masses, and ages. We show that the bolometric corrections and effective temperatures of the G and K stars are consistent with those of subgiants. The low mass stars have isochronal ages of 1-2 Myr, depending on the choice of evolutionary models, with very small dispersion (sigma approximately = 1 Myr). This age is significantly younger than the 5-6 Myr found for the more massive B stars. The small dispersion in stellar ages, less than 10% the sound-crossing time of the association, suggests that star formation was triggered. We present two scenarios for star formation in this association. In the two-episode scenario, formation of the low mass stars was triggered by a supernova explosion, and the low mass stars form quickly, with high efficiency. Alternatively, high and low mass star formation was all initiated at the same time, some 5-6 Myr ago, and the apparent systematic age difference is an artifact of how the isochrones are dated. The effect of the supernova is to terminate mass accretion and yield an apparently coeval population. We show that the incompleteness in the x-ray sampling is about 65%, and is strongly dependent on stellar mass. After correction for incompleteness, we estimate there are about 2000 low mass members (stellar mass less than 2 solar mass) of this association. The mass function in this association is indistinguishable from that of the field. The ratio of naked to classical T Tauri stars is much larger than in Tau-Aur, and may be attributable to the local environment. We also present observations of eight ROX sources associated with the rho Oph cloud, and observations of non-pre-main sequence (PMS) stars in our fields.

Walter, Frederick M.↗

Thermal Protection System Design of Aerocapture Systems for Uranus Orbiters

The National Academies Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey recently identified Uranus and Neptune - the Ice Giants - as the priority destinations for science. A mission to Uranus, the highest priority destination due to proximity to Earth, is viable with existing launch vehicle providers during launch windows starting in 2031. However, a nominal interplanetary trajectory (between 12 and 15 years) would still necessitate more than half the initial launch mass in propellant to achieve orbital insertion. Aerocapture, a method of orbital control that directs aerodynamic forces generated on a vehicle by the planet's atmosphere, allows mission designers to achieve the desired orbital state while saving time to the final destination and increasing the available mass for the science payload. Achieving orbital insertion via aerocapture requires novel algorithms for Guidance, Navigation and Control, and mass-efficient Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) performing in an atmosphere unlike any other NASA has flown through. Multiple TPS in NASA's repertoire are suitable for the unique aerothermal environment on the forebody, and the results of predicted sizing and challenges in implementation are discussed below. Results for aftbody TPS made by NASA as well as commercial vendors are discussed, along with the discussion of alternative solutions that may save time, reduce complexity, and increase mass-efficiency for the recommended Uranus Orbiter and Probe mission.

Uranus↗

Thermal Protection System Design of Aerocapture Systems for Uranus Orbiters

The National Academies Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey recently identified Uranus and Neptune - the Ice Giants - as the priority destinations for science. A mission to Uranus, the highest priority destination due to proximity to Earth, is viable with existing launch vehicle providers during launch windows starting in 2031. However, a nominal interplanetary trajectory (between 12 and 15 years) would still necessitate more than half the initial launch mass in propellant to achieve orbital insertion. Aerocapture, a method of orbital control that directs aerodynamic forces generated on a vehicle by the planet's atmosphere, allows mission designers to achieve the desired orbital state while saving time to the final destination and increasing the available mass for the science payload. Achieving orbital insertion via aerocapture requires novel algorithms for Guidance, Navigation and Control, and mass-efficient Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) performing in an atmosphere unlike any other NASA has flown through. Multiple TPS in NASA's repertoire are suitable for the unique aerothermal environment on the forebody, and the results of predicted sizing and challenges in implementation are discussed below. Results for aftbody TPS made by NASA as well as commercial vendors are discussed, along with the discussion of alternative solutions that may save time, reduce complexity, and increase mass-efficiency for the recommended Uranus Orbiter and Probe mission.

Uranus↗

Space Transportation System Technology Symposium: Operations, Maintenance, and Safety (Including Cryogenic Systems) - Volume 5

The prospect of undertaking a reusable launch vehicle development led the NASA Office of Manned Space Flight (OMSF) to request the Office of Advanced Research and Technology (OART) to organize and direct a program to develop the technology that would aid in selecting the best system alternatives and that would support the ultimate development of an earth-to-orbit shuttle. Such a Space Transportation System Technology Program has been initiated. OART, OMSF, and NASA Flight and Research Centers with the considerable inputs of Department of Defense personnel have generated the program through the efforts of several Technology Working Groups and a Technology Steering Group. Funding and management of the recommended efforts is being accomplished through the normal OART and OMSF line management channels. The work is being done in government laboratories and under contract with industry and universities. Foreign nations have been invited to participate in this work as well. Substantial funding, from both OART and OMSF, was applied during the second half of fiscal year 1970. The Space Transportation System Technology Symposium held at the NASA Lewis Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio, July 15-17, 1970, was the first public report on that program. The Symposium goals were to consider the technology problems, their status, and the prospective program outlook for the benefit of the industry, government, university, and foreign participants considered to be contributors to the program. In addition, it offered an opportunity to identify the responsible individuals already engaged in the program. The Symposium sessions were intended to confront each presenter with his technical peers as listeners, and this, I believe, was substantially accomplished. Because of the high interest in the material presented, and also because the people who could edit the output are already deeply involved in other important tasks, we have elected to publish the material essentially as it was presented, utilizing mainly the illustrations used by the presenters along with brief words of explanation. Those who heard the presentations, and those who are technically astute in specialty areas, can probably put this story together again. We hope that more will be gained by compiling the information in this form now than by spending the time and effort to publish a more finished compendium later.

Source record↗

Space Transportation System Technology Symposium: Biotechnology - Volume 7

The prospect of undertaking a reusable launch vehicle development led the NASA Office of Manned Space Flight (OMSF) to request the Office of Advanced Research and Technology (OART) to organize and direct a program to develop the technology that would aid in selecting the best system alternatives and that would support the ultimate development of an earth-to-orbit shuttle. Such a Space Transportation System Technology Program has been initiated. OART, OMSF, and NASA Flight and Research Centers with the considerable inputs of Department of Defense personnel have generated the program through the efforts of several Technology Working Groups and a Technology Steering Group. Funding and management of the recommended efforts is being accomplished through the normal OART and OMSF line management channels. The work is being done in government laboratories and under contract with industry and universities. Foreign nations have been invited to participate in this work as well. Substantial funding, from both OART and OMSF, was applied during the second half of fiscal year 1970. The Space Transportation System Technology Symposium held at the NASA Lewis Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio, July 15-17, 1970, was the first public report on that program. The Symposium goals were to consider the technology problems, their status, and the prospective program outlook for the benefit of the industry, government, university, and foreign participants considered to be contributors to the program. In addition, it offered an opportunity to identify the responsible individuals already engaged in the program. The Symposium sessions were intended to confront each presenter with his technical peers as listeners, and this, I believe, was substantially accomplished. Because of the high interest in the material presented, and also because the people who could edit the output are already deeply involved in other important tasks, we have elected to publish the material essentially as it was presented, utilizing mainly the illustrations used by the presenters along with brief words of explanation. Those who heard the presentations, and those who are technically astute in specialty areas, can probably put this story together again. We hope that more will be gained by compiling the information in this form now than by spending the time and effort to publish a more finished compendium later.

Source record↗

Derivation of the midinfrared (5.0-25.0 micron) optical constants of hydrous carbonate and sulfate

There is ample theoretical and observational evidence suggesting liquid water was once stable at the surface of Mars. Because water is essential to the evolution of life, it is important to understand the types of environments in which the liquid water was present. For example, if water were present early in Mars' history, then this raises the possibility that biological activity may have evolved only to eventually become extinct as liquid water became scarce. Alternatively, if liquid water were stable only later in Mars' history, then it becomes problematic to envision mechanisms by which biological activity evolved and remained viable without water until more favorable conditions existed. Even without biological activity, atmospheric carbon dioxide dissolved in water can assist the chemical weathering of primary igneous minerals producing common secondary phases such as hydartes, carbonates, and sulfates. While the identification of hydrates, carbonates, and sulfates on Mars cannot provide direct evidence of biological activity, it can provide significant information regarding the presence and duration of an environment that would support the presence of liquid water at the surface. The specific mineralogy of these secondary phases can provide insight into the environments of their formation. For example, the slow precipitation that occurs in large standing bodies of water, e.g. oceans or lakes, commonly results in the formation of calcite, magnesite, dolomite, siderite, and rhodochrosite. Rapid precipitation that occurs in ephemeral bodies of water, e.g. hypersaline lakes or playas, can result in the formation of all of the above phases as well as aragonite, vaterite, hydrated carbonates, alkali carbonates, bicarbonates, and other poorly ordered phases. Absorption features identified in recent near-infrared spectra of Mars have been interpreted as being due to bicarbonate and bisulfate located in the mineral scaplite. Spectral data returned by the Mariner 6 and 7 spacecraft have been inerpreted as remaining consistent with the presence of hydrated carbonates. Additional, airborne thermal infrared spectra of Mars have been interpreted as implying the presence of carbonates, sulfates, and hydrates. Modeling of the thermal infrared data relied upon the optical constants of calcite anhydrite and a mixture of water in basalt because of their availability. The derived abundances of carbonate and sulfate were 1-3 percent and 10-15 percent by volume. However, the observed complexity and positions of the bands suggested other carbonate-, and sulfate-bearing species. We have already derived optical constants for hydrous and anhydrous silicates, and we are now applying these techniques to the derivation of the optical constants of hydrous carbonate and sulfate.

Roush, Ted L.↗

Space Transportation System Technology Symposium: Propulsion - Volume 4

The prospect of undertaking a reusable launch vehicle development led the NASA Office of Manned Space Flight (OMSF) to request the Office of Advanced Research and Technology (OART) to organize and direct a program to develop the technology that would aid in selecting the best system alternatives and that would support the ultimate development of an earth-to-orbit shuttle. Such a Space Transportation System Technology Program has been initiated. OART, OMSF, and NASA Flight and Research Centers with the considerable inputs of Department of Defense personnel have generated the program through the efforts of several Technology Working Groups and a Technology Steering Group. Funding and management of the recommended efforts is being accomplished through the normal OAR T and OMSF line management channels. The work is being done in government laboratories and under contract with industry and universities. Foreign nations have been invited to participate in this work as well. Substantial funding, from both OART and OMSF, was applied during the second half of fiscal year 1970. The Space Transportation System Technology Symposium held at the NASA Lewis Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio, July 15-17, 1970, was the first public report on that program. The Symposium goals were to consider the technology problems, their status, and the prospective program outlook for the benefit of the industry, government, university, and foreign participants considered to be contributors to the program. In addition, it offered an opportunity to identify the responsible individuals already engaged in the program. The Symposium sessions were intended to confront each presenter with his technical peers as listeners, and this, I believe, was substantially accomplished. Because of the high interest in the material presented, and also because the people who could edit the output are already deeply involved in other important tasks, we have elected to publish the material essentially as it was presented, utilizing mainly the illustrations used by the presenters along with brief words of explanation. Those who heard the presentations, and those who are technically astute in specialty areas, can probably put this story together again. We hope that more will be gained by compiling the information in this form now than by spending the time and effort to publish a more finished compendium later.

Source record↗

Detecting Conductive Liquid Leaking from Nonconductive Pipe

A method that can be implemented with relatively simple electronic circuitry provides a capability for detecting leakage of an electrically conductive liquid from an electrically nonconductive underground pipe. Alternatively or in addition, the method can be applied to locate the pipe, whether or not there is a leak. Although the method is subject to limitations (some of which are described below), it is still attractive as an additional option for detecting leaks and locating pipes without need for extensive digging. The method is based on capacitive coupling of an alternating electrical signal from the liquid to a portable electronic unit that resembles a metal detector. A signal voltage is applied to the liquid at some convenient point along the pipe: for example, the signal could be coupled into the liquid via an aboveground metal pipe fitting, the interior surface of which is in contact with the liquid. The signal is conducted through the liquid in the pipe; in the case of diffusive leak of liquid into the surrounding ground, the signal is conducted through the leak, into the portion of the adjacent ground that has become soaked with the liquid. (A drip leak cannot be detected by this method because there is no conductive path between the liquid inside and the liquid outside the pipe.) The portable unit includes an electrically conductive plate connected to the input terminal of an amplifier. When the plate is brought near the pipe or the leaked liquid, a small portion of the signal power is coupled capacitively from the liquid to the plate. The user scans the plate near the ground surface to find the locus of maximum signal strength. The leak can be identified as a relatively wide area, contiguous with the location of the pipe, over which the signal is detectable.

Youngquist, Robert C.↗

Creating Benchmark Data for Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Space Biology Research

To identify an appropriate AI/ML approach for a specific problem, the best practice is to measure algorithm performance through the benchmarking process. A scientific benchmark consists of an AI-ready dataset and a reference implementation on a specific scientific question. The NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) has started the “Benchmark Initiative for AI/ML to create scientific benchmark datasets in three applications: 1) scientific benchmarking, which finds the best algorithm for a specific problem; 2) application benchmarking, which measures algorithm performance against a set of parameters; and 3) system benchmarking, which evaluates performance of hardware and software architecture. Currently, there are no standardized datasets available to benchmark AI/ML algorithms in the domain of space biology. In this work, we constructed two AI/ML-ready biological datasets from experiments in space-flown mice: cellular imaging and RNA-seq. First, radiation-exposed immune cells harbor DNA damage foci that can be fluorescently marked to visualize the amount of damage following exposure to ionizing radiation. However, such large datasets are difficult to analyze visually, due to imaging inconsistencies and human bias, and classical image processing approaches can fail on imaging artifacts. AI/ML are therefore exciting alternative, providing the speed of machines and the accuracy of humans. We have made this dataset available at https://registry.opendata.aws/bps_microscopy/. Second, high-throughput nucleic acid sequencing (DNA-seq, RNA-seq) has become widespread in biomedical research due to the growing availability and affordability of these assays. However, most sequencing datasets suffer from high dimensionality and low sample count. In this work, we used a generative adversarial network to synthesize a standardized, AI-ready, publicly available benchmark dataset for space biology RNA-seq data with sufficient space-flown and ground control mouse liver samples from NASA GeneLab. This dataset is available at https://registry.opendata.aws/bps_rnaseq/. These datasets are now fully open the Space Biology community to test their favorite AI/ML approaches.

James Casaletto↗

Vibration Modal Characterization of a Stirling Convertor via Base-Shake Excitation

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin (LM), Stirling Technology Company (STC), and NASA John H. Glenn Research Center (GRC) are currently developing a high-efficiency Stirling convertor for use in a Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG). NASA and DOE have identified the SRG for potential use as an advanced power system for future NASA Space Science missions, providing spacecraft onboard electric power for deep space missions and power for unmanned Mars rovers. Low-level, baseshake sine vibration tests were conducted on the Stirling Technology Demonstration Convertor (TDC), at NASA GRC's Structural Dynamics Laboratory, in February 2001, as part of the development of this Stirling technology. The purpose of these tests was to provide a better understanding of the TDC's internal dynamic response to external vibratory base excitations. The knowledge obtained can therein be used to help explain the success that the TDC enjoyed in its previous random vibration qualification tests (December 1999). This explanation focuses on the TDC s internal dynamic characteristics in the 50 to 250 Hz frequency range, which corresponds to the maximum input levels of its qualification random vibration test specification. The internal dynamic structural characteristics of the TDC have now been measured in two separate tests under different motoring and dynamic loading conditions: (1) with the convertor being electrically motored, under a vibratory base-shake excitation load, and (2) with the convertor turned off, and its alternator internals undergoing dynamic excitation via hammer impact loading. This paper addresses the test setup, procedure and results of the base-shake vibration testing conducted on the motored TDC, and will compare these results with those results obtained from the dynamic impact tests (May 2001) on the nonmotored TDC.

Suarez, Vicente J.↗

Final Report

This grant was made to fund two accepted proposals to observe with the ASCA satellite: (1) Debunking the myth of two-temperature coronae of active stars, and (2) Dynamic coronae of dMe stars. We obtained the requested observations and have now completed two papers that will be published in the Astrophysical Journal. The RS CVn binary star UX Ari was observed for 14 hours with all four detectors onboard the ASCA satellite. The X-ray emission was at a constant, quiescent level during the first 12 hours, after which time a powerful flare with a peak luminosity of 1.4 x 10(exp 32) ergs/s started. The flare was observed until shortly after its peak. We present a spectral and temporal analysis of the UX Ari observations and analyze the data with a two-ribbon flare model including estimates for cooling losses. A time-dependent reconstruction of the emission measure (EM) distribution shows that two separate plasma components evolve during the flare (one being identified with the quiescent EM). Most of the flare EM reaches temperatures between 50 MK and 100 MK or more. Magnetic confinement requires the loop arcade to be geometrically large, with length scales on the order of one stellar radius. The electron densities inferred from the model decrease from initial values around 10(exp 12)/cc early in the flare to about 10(exp 11)/cc at the flare peak. The best-fit models require surface magnetic field strengths of a few hundred G, compatible with the maximum photospheric fields expected from equipartition. The flare parameters imply a (conductive and radiative) cooling loss time of less than one hour at flare peak. The elemental abundances increase significantly during the flare rise, with the abundances of the low-FIP elements Fe, Mg, Si, and Ni typically increasing to higher levels than the high-FIP elements such as S or Ne. The Fe abundance increases from (17 +/- 4)% of the solar photospheric value during quiescence up to (89 +/- 18)% at flare peak. A fractionation process that occurs during the chromospheric evaporation phase may selectively enrich low-FIP elements as in the solar corona; alternatively, the chromospheric evaporation may itself bring metal-rich plasma into the metal-poor corona.

Linsky, Jeffrey L.↗

In-Situ Reaction Monitoring for Lunar Applications Utilizing a Single Quadrupole Residual Gas Analyzer

With a revived focus to create a permeant presence on the moon and in preparation for future Mars exploration, it is imperative that all re-sources are utilized to their fullest potential. In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) will be critical for future mission success as it would enable independent operation of missions while minimally relying on the complex supply chain created between the Earth, moon and Mars. One of the most critical resources that have been identified for ISRU is the creation of liquid oxygen (O2) for not only breathable air, but also for rocket fuel. On the moon and potentially Mars, one of the most O2 rich resources is in the presence of regolith. Although there are numerous minerals within regolith and various processes to extract O2, this is not the scope of this paper. Since the O2 extraction method can vary, a critical standardized analytical method is needed to verify O2 (or oxygenated precursor compounds) for extraction efficiency and purity. Our group utilizes a modified consumer off-the-shelf (COTS), Residual Gas Analyzer (RGA) Single Quadrupole Mass Spectrometer (QMS). Due to the current field mission requirements, the gas analysis module will need to rely only on mass-to-charge ratios (m/z) and peak intensities to differentiate and quantitate targeted gas-phase reactants or products, i.e. carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and hydrogen (H2). However, due to solar wind implanted volatiles and various other compounds present in lunar regolith, such as nitrogen (N2), helium (He), and deuterium (D2), deconvolution and quantification of isobaric compounds becomes quite difficult. Specifically, the presence of N2 makes quantification of CO, an oxygenated precursor, difficult due to both compounds having a peak at m/z 28. Approaches to differentiate isobaric components: Initially, the solution to overcome isobaric overlap was to use isotopic ratios, particularly be-tween carbon-13 and nitrogen-15. Although limited literature discuss isotopic composition and attempt to quantify the ratios, variation is particularly high and limited to a few lunar regolith samples. The following were identified as potential approaches to quantify isobaric species, N2 and CO, using our RGA. Threshold Ionization. CO and N2 both have peaks at m/z 28, but only N2 is capable of producing a peak at m/z 7. While a N2 peak at m/z 7 is generally rare, instrument parameters can be optimized in order to maximize the peak intensity. Typically a standard ionization energy of 70 eV is used to monitor a batch process and would produce reliable results for a majority of the reactants or products that we are interested in quantifying. However, to analyze the rare molecular fragment of N2 (N2+ at m/z 7), a different ionization energy may be beneficial. Threshold Ionization Mass Spectrometry (TIMS) will be explored to optimize the N2+ peak at m/z 7 by varying parameters such as ionization energy and pressure. Therefore, a quantitative value at m/z 7 will be used to determine the product gas concentration of N2, which will be subtracted from the total concentration determined at m/z 28 enabling us to approximate the amount of CO. Secondary Detector (infrared gas detector, IR). Another approach to quantitate and differentiate be-tween isobaric components is to leverage alternative modes of detection. Unlike mass spectrometry, which generally uses a separation step prior to analysis (i.e. gas chromatography), IR produces energy that is specifically absorbed depending on the bond and configuration of the molecule. This technique could be leveraged since it is generally only active on non-symmetric molecules, i.e. CO. Utilizing concentrations of CO determined from another detector could help correct concentrations of CO obtained from the QMS. However, the inclusion of another detector adds additional mission requirements, such as power, software changes and avionics updates that add additional cost and schedule requirements.

mass spectrometry↗

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.

Goetz, Scott J.↗

Designing for Advanced Aerial Mobility: Human-Autonomy Teaming and In-Time System-Wide Safety Assurance

The continued growth of aviation shall require new innovative technologies and operational concepts to meet the ever-increasing demands on air transportation. The NASA Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) project focuses on emerging aviation markets, such as Urban Air Mobility (UAM). UAM is defined as “...a safe and efficient system for air passenger and cargo transportation within an urban area. It is inclusive of small package delivery and other urban unmanned aerial system services and supports a mix of onboard/ground-piloted and increasingly autonomous operations” ([1]). The AAM project emphasizes technology development and validating system-level concepts and solutions in coordination with other NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) projects to enable UAM metro- and micro-plex vertiport and airspace concepts of operations. The NASA AAM research portfolio includes the concepts of Remote Supervisor-in-Command (RSC) and Fleet and Airspace Manager (FAM) as possible human roles for consumer fleet providers. NASA research in RSC is focused on development of guidelines and standards for remote pilots/operators passively and actively controlling a large fleet of autonomous aircraft. For FAM, flight and ground system concepts and technologies to enable high density homogeneous operations at increased scale from vertiport(s), and coordination with other humans in the systems (e.g., UAM urban airspace manager, Air Traffic Control) are key research areas. The envisioned UAM operations are posited to require autonomous systems to enable functions ranging from fleet and resource management to vehicle control. Although automation has become increasingly sophisticated and ubiquitous in civil aviation, autonomy represents a significant evolution in automation, which has generally been limited in functional scope and capability. As autonomy takes on increasing responsibilities, humans and machines will be required to work together in new and different ways [2], rather than traditional design approaches focused on how machines (i.e., autonomy) can do the work of people. The emerging field of human-autonomy teaming (HAT) represents a comprehensive and prioritized research-driven approach to enable the success of future emerging aviation market applications through capabilities and principles that facilitate humans and machine working and thinking better together. The NASA Transformational Tools and Technologies (TTT) Autonomous System (AS) Sub-project was created to assist with the transition into higher levels of autonomy to enable new modes of air transportation, such as UAM. TTT-AS has identified HAT as a key research need to enable UAM while maintaining today’s ultra-safe aviation system safety levels. The latter challenge has been taken up by the NASA System-Wide Safety (SWS) Project, which recognizes that aviation safety, as it evolves, shall require new ways of thinking about safety to include integration of a wide-range of existing and new safety systems and practices, enhanced tools and technologies, increased access to data and data fusion, improved data analysis capabilities, enhanced in-time risk monitoring and detection, hazard prioritization and mitigation, safety assurance decision-support, and in-time integrated system analytics [3].The operational concept of UAM represents a variety of work that has been termed, “work-as-imagined” to characterize the idea that how people think that work is done and how work is actually done are often not the same [4]. To ensure design success and system safety, looking at “work-as-done” provides a comparative approach toward UAM concept and technology design through examination of corresponding analogs found today in aviation (e.g., on-demand operations) and other transportation domains (e.g., port operations). The paper shall discuss various alternative applications with specific focus on airline operation center (AOC) operations, and unmanned aerial system (UAS) command-and-control to inform scaled-versions of FAM and RSC, respectively, and with consideration of the national airspace system contextual environment. The tenets and principles of the HAT field and current NASA research efforts under the TTT-AS sub-project shall also be described. Finally, the SWS sub-project efforts to develop In-Time System-Wide Safety Assurance (ISSA) and In-Time Safety Management Systems (IASMS) are discussed in terms of how “in-time” safety assurance may be conceptualized for the on-demand mobility air taxi “work-as-imagined” operational concept [5]. As part of this effort, concepts from the emerging field of resilience engineering, are being studied. Traditional approaches to aviation safety have focused on what can go wrong and how to prevent it. Another approach to thinking about system safety should reflect not only “avoiding things that go wrong” (protective safety) but also “ensuring that things go right” (productive safety), that enables a system to exhibit the resilient performance [6] necessary for the success of the future aviation system emerging concepts of operations. The paper shall describe efforts focused on how productive safety and resilience may enable a more complete approach to system safety thinking and design of ISSA and IASMS for UAM. Future directions and research needs shall also be discussed.

resilience↗

Comprehensive Analysis of Thirty Years of Land Change in Georgia: Forest Degradation, Land-Use Patterns, and Drivers

In this talk, we present results from a study, funded by the NASA Land-Cover and Land-Use Change program, of thirty years of environmental change in the country of Georgia. The country, a former Soviet Union Republic, has experienced more political, economic and social change in the last 30 years than most countries. But the environmental implications of these extreme events remain largely unknown – the region is understudied, no national forest inventory has been completed in 20 years, and previous research in the area conducted by the authors were not successful. The latter statement is because of forest degradation. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, much of the forestry infrastructure broke down and people resorted to chopping down individual trees. The result was in many parts of the country a reduction in forest biomass but not to the point of a change in land cover. This type of forest degradation, which was either gradual over decades or abrupt, could not be readily identified using the methods and data at our disposal at the time. In the recent study, we had full access to the Landsat archive in combination with computing power. By using monitoring methods that are based on time series analysis, we were able to capture and identify the gradual processes driven by small scale activities that are so characteristic of the post-Soviet Georgian landscape. We developed an approach (“CCDC-SMA”) that combines time series analysis and spectral mixture analysis running on Google Earth Engine for monitoring abrupt and gradual forest degradation. By using this approach, we found that forest degradation was significantly larger than the area estimate of deforestation; 3,541 ± 556 km2 (11% of the forest area in 1987) compared to 158 ± 98 km2 from 1987 to 2020. The prevailing narrative is that legal and illegal cutting of trees for fuelwood is primarily responsible for this process. Yet, since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the country has undergone rapid socioeconomic and institutional changes which have not been explored as drivers of forest change. To further our understanding of the underlying causes, we combined forest disturbance estimates, Georgian statistical data, and historical institutional change data to examine socioeconomic drivers of forest degradation. We found that higher winter temperature and drought were associated with higher degradation at the regional scale, while major institutional changes and drought were associated with higher forest degradation at the national level. Access to natural gas, the major energy alternative to fuelwood, had no significant association with degradation. Our results challenge the narrative that poverty and a lack of alternative energy infrastructure drive forest degradation and suggest that government policies banning household fuelwood cutting, including the new Forest Code of 2020, may not reduce forest degradation. Given these results, improved data on wood harvesting and more research on the commercial drivers of degradation and their links to economic and political reforms is needed to better inform forest policy in the region, especially given ongoing risks from climate change.

Pontus Olofsson↗

Decomposition-Based Decision Making for Aerospace Vehicle Design

Most practical engineering systems design problems have multiple and conflicting objectives. Furthermore, the satisfactory attainment level for each objective ( requirement ) is likely uncertain early in the design process. Systems with long design cycle times will exhibit more of this uncertainty throughout the design process. This is further complicated if the system is expected to perform for a relatively long period of time, as now it will need to grow as new requirements are identified and new technologies are introduced. These points identify a need for a systems design technique that enables decision making amongst multiple objectives in the presence of uncertainty. Traditional design techniques deal with a single objective or a small number of objectives that are often aggregates of the overarching goals sought through the generation of a new system. Other requirements, although uncertain, are viewed as static constraints to this single or multiple objective optimization problem. With either of these formulations, enabling tradeoffs between the requirements, objectives, or combinations thereof is a slow, serial process that becomes increasingly complex as more criteria are added. This research proposal outlines a technique that attempts to address these and other idiosyncrasies associated with modern aerospace systems design. The proposed formulation first recasts systems design into a multiple criteria decision making problem. The now multiple objectives are decomposed to discover the critical characteristics of the objective space. Tradeoffs between the objectives are considered amongst these critical characteristics by comparison to a probabilistic ideal tradeoff solution. The proposed formulation represents a radical departure from traditional methods. A pitfall of this technique is in the validation of the solution: in a multi-objective sense, how can a decision maker justify a choice between non-dominated alternatives? A series of examples help the reader to observe how this technique can be applied to aerospace systems design and compare the results of this so-called Decomposition-Based Decision Making to more traditional design approaches.

Borer, Nicholas K.↗