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Evaluation of a multi-scale WRF-CAM5 simulation during the 2010 East Asian Summer Monsoon

The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) with the physics package of the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (CAM5) has been applied at multiple scales over Eastern China (EC) and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) to evaluate how increased horizontal resolution with physics designed for a coarser resolution climate model impacts aerosols and clouds, and the resulting precipitation characteristics and performance during the 2010 East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Despite large underpredictions in surface aerosol concentrations and aerosol optical depth, there is good spatial agreement with surface observations of chemical predictions, and increasing spatial resolution tends to improve performance. Model bias and normalized root mean square values for precipitation predictions are relatively small, but there are significant differences when comparing modeled and observed probability density functions for precipitation in EC and YRD. Increasing model horizontal resolution tends to reduce model bias and error for precipitation predictions. The surface and column aerosol loading is maximized between about 32N and 42N in early to mid-May during the 2010 EASM, and then shifts north while decreasing in magnitude during July and August. Changing model resolution moderately changes the spatiotemporal relationships between aerosols, cloud properties, and precipitation during the EASM, thus demonstrating the importance of model grid resolution in simulating EASM circulation and rainfall patterns over EC and the YRD. Results from this work demonstrate the capability and limitations in the aerosol, cloud, and precipitation representation of WRF-CAM5 for regional-scale applications down to relatively fine horizontal resolutions. Further WRF-CAM5 model development and application in this area is needed.

Campbell, Patrick↗

Mars-Gram Validation with Mars Global Surveyor Data

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2001) is an engineering-level Mars atmosphere model widely used for many b4ars mission applications. From 0-80 km, it is based on NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM), while above 80 km it is based on University of Arizona Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model. Mars-GRAM 2001 and MGCM use surface topography from Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiting Laser Altimeter (MOLA). Validation studies are described comparing Mars-GRAM with Mars Global Surveyor Radio Science (RS) and Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data. RS data from 2480 profiles were used, covering latitudes 75deg S to 72deg N, surface to approx. 40 km, for seasons ranging from areocentric longitude of Sun (Ls) = 70-160deg and 265-310deg. RS data spanned a range of local times, mostly 0-9 hours and 18-24 hours. For interests in aerocapture and precision landing, comparisons concentrated on atmospheric density. At a fixed height of 20 km, measured RS density varied by about a factor of 2.5 over the range of latitudes and Ls values observed. Evaluated at matching positions and times, average RS/Mars-GRAM density ratios were generally lf0.05, except at heights above approx. 25 km and latitudes above approx.50deg N. Average standard deviation of RS/Mars-GRAM density ratio was 6%. TES data were used covering surface to approx. 40 km, over more than a full Mars year (February, 1999 - June, 2001, just before start of Mars global dust storm). Depending on season, TES data covered latitudes 85deg S to 85deg N. Most TES data were concentrated near local times 2 hours and 14 hours. Observed average TES/Mars-GRAM density ratios were generally 1+/-0.05, except at high altitudes (15-30 km, depending on season) and high latitudes (> 45deg N), or at most altitudes in the southern hemisphere at Ls approx. 90 and 180deg). Compared to TES averages for a given latitude and season, TES data had average density standard deviation about the mean of approx. 6.5-10.5% (varying with height) for all data, or approx. 5- 12%, depending on time of day and dust optical depth. Average standard deviation of TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio was 8.9% for local time 2 hours and 7.1% for 1o:al time 14 hours. Thus standard deviation of observed TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio, evaluated at matching positions and times, is about the same as the standard deviation of TES data about the TES mean value at a given position and season.

Justus, C. G.↗

Atmospheric Dust Modeling from Meso to Global Scales with the Online NMMB/BSC-Dust Model Part 2: Experimental Campaigns in Northern Africa

The new NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. It is an online model in which the dust aerosol dynamics and physics are solved at each model time step. The companion paper (Perez et al., 2011) develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6-0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1) in 2006 and the Bodele Dust Experiment (BoDEx) in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements. All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational horizontal resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob that occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical dust distribution related to the representation of the mixing height in the atmospheric part of the model. For the BoDEx episode, we found the diurnal temperature cycle to be strongly dependant on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The low level jet (LLJ) and the dust AOD over the Bodélé are well reproduced. The remaining negative AOD bias (due to underestimated surface wind speeds) can be substantially reduced by decreasing the threshold friction velocity in the model.

photometers↗

Simulation of ENSO Teleconnections to Precipitation Extremes over the United States in the High-Resolution Version of E3SM

Abstract We evaluate the simulated teleconnection of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to winter season precipitation extremes over the United States in a long (98 years) 1950 control high-resolution version (HR; 25-km nominal atmosphere model horizontal resolution) of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). The model bias and spatial pattern of ENSO teleconnections to mean and extreme precipitation in HR overall are similar to the low-resolution model’s (LR; 110 km) historical simulation (four-member ensemble, 1925–59). However, over the southeastern United States (SE-U.S.), HR produces stronger El Niño–associated extremes, reducing LR’s model bias. Both LR and HR produce weaker than observed increase in storm track activity during El Niño events there, but HR improves the ENSO-associated variability of moisture transport over SE-U.S. During El Niño, stronger vertical velocities in HR produce stronger large-scale precipitation, causing larger latent heating of the troposphere that pulls in more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the SE-U.S. This positive feedback also contributes to the stronger mean and extreme precipitation response in HR. Over the Pacific Northwest, LR’s bias of stronger than observed La Niña associated extremes is amplified in HR. Both models simulate stronger than observed moisture transport from the Pacific Ocean into the region during La Niña years. The amplified HR bias there is due to stronger orographically driven vertical updrafts that create stronger large-scale precipitation, despite weaker La Niña–induced storm track activity. Significance Statement New high-resolution Earth system models (ESMs) solve mathematical equations of fluid flow at much smaller spatial scales than prevalent ESMs, and thus are prohibitively expensive to compute. However, they can be useful for simulating accurate details of regional climate extremes that are driven by naturally occurring climate oscillations like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, we evaluate the simulation of ENSO-driven precipitation extremes over the United States in the high-resolution version of the U.S. Department of Energy’s new Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1. We find that the high-resolution model improves upon its low-resolution counterpart over the southeastern United States by producing a better transport of moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico during El Niño. Over the U.S. Pacific Northwest, the high-resolution model simulates the atmospheric flow in more detail over the complex mountainous terrain. However, it also brings in more moisture from the Pacific Ocean just like the low-resolution model. This causes it to produce precipitation extremes during La Niña years there that are stronger than that observed in the real world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Summary MGS TES Data and Mars-Gram Validation

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2001) is an engineering-level Mars atmosphere model widely used for many Mars mission applications. From 0-80 km, it is based on NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM), while above 80 km it is based on University of Arizona Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model. Mars-GRAM 2001 and MGCM use surface topograph$ from Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiting Laser Altimeter (MOLA). Validation studies are described comparing Mars-GRAM with a global summary data set of Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data. TES averages and standard deviations were assembled from binned TES data which covered surface to approx. 40 km, over more than a full Mars year (February, 1999 - June, 2001, just before start of a Mars global dust storm). TES data were binned in 10-by-10 degree latitude-longitude bins (i.e. 36 longitude bins by 19 latitude bins), 12 seasonal bins (based on 30 degree increments of Ls angle). Bin averages and standard deviations were assembled at 23 data levels (temperature at 21 pressure levels, plus surface temperature and surface pressure). Two time-of day bins were used: local time near 2 or 14 hours local time). Two dust optical depth bins wereused: infrared optical depth either less than or greater than 0.25 (which corresponds to visible optical depth either less than or greater than about 0.5). For interests in aerocapture and precision entry and landing, comparisons focused on atmospheric density. TES densities versus height were computed from TES temperature versus pressure, using assumptions of perfect gas law and hydrostatics. Mars-GRAM validation studies used density ratio (TES/Mars-GRAM) evaluated at data bin center points in space and time. Observed average TES/Mars-GRAM density ratios were generally 1+/-0.05, except at high altitudes (15-30 km, depending on season) and high latitudes (> 45 deg N), or at most altitudes in the southern hemisphere at Ls approx. 90 and 180deg). Compared to TES averages for a given latitude and season, TES data had average density standard deviation about the mean of approx. 65-10.5% (varying with height) for all data, or approx. 5-12%, depending on time of day and dust optical depth. Average standard deviation of TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio was 8.9% for local time 2 hours and 7.1% for local time 14 hours. Thus standard deviation of observed TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio, evaluated at matching positions and times, is about the same as the standard deviation of TES data about the TES mean value at a given position and season.

Justus, C.↗

Atmospheric transmission computer program CP

A computer program is described which allows for calculation of the effects of carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane, ozone, carbon monoxide, and nitrous oxide on earth resources remote sensing techniques. A flow chart of the program and operating instructions are provided. Comparisons are made between the atmospheric transmission obtained from laboratory and spacecraft spectrometer data and that obtained from a computer prediction using a model atmosphere and radiosonde data. Limitations of the model atmosphere are discussed. The computer program listings, input card formats, and sample runs for both radiosonde data and laboratory data are included.

Pitts, D. E.↗

Communications and data handling

The communications system for the planetary entry missions is discussed with emphasis on the basic problems of the data link: uncertainty about atmospheric composition, time limitation for transmission, and geometry variation or change in aspect angles. The baseline design for Pioneer is reviewed. In this design, telemetry is transmitted only during the descent phase of probe entry at 44 bits-per-second. It is indicated that this design encompasses different atmospheric entries for different planets, different atmospheric models of planetary atmospheres, and allows for dispersion in the entry angle and phasing. The radio frequency environment is considered to be the prime problem of the communication link, therefore a discussion of the ionospheric absorption and turbulence models is included.

Grant, T. L.↗

Software Engineering Tools for Scientific Models

Software tools were constructed to address issues the NASA Fortran development community faces, and they were tested on real models currently in use at NASA. These proof-of-concept tools address the High-End Computing Program and the Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction Program. Two examples are the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric model in Cell Fortran on the Cell Broadband Engine, and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled atmosphere- ocean model called ModelE, written in fixed format Fortran.

Abrams, Marc↗

Constraining white dwarf structure and neutrino physics in 47 Tucanae

We present a robust statistical analysis of the white dwarf cooling sequence in 47 Tucanae. We combine Hubble Space Telescope UV and optical data in the core of the cluster, Modules for Experiments in Stellar Evolution (MESA) white dwarf cooling models, white dwarf atmosphere models, artificial star tests, and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling method to fit white dwarf cooling models to our data directly. We use a technique known as the unbinned maximum likelihood to fit these models to our data without binning. We use these data to constrain neutrino production and the thickness of the hydrogen layer in these white dwarfs. The data prefer thicker hydrogen layers (q{sub H}=3.2×10{sup −5}) and we can strongly rule out thin layers (q{sub H}=10{sup −6}). The neutrino rates currently in the models are consistent with the data. This analysis does not provide a constraint on the number of neutrino species.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Status of the Delco Systems Operations forward looking windshear detection program

Delco Systems Operations, a division of General Motors Hughes Electronics Corporation, is developing a Forward Looking Windshear Detection System based on the integration of infrared remote sensing and accelerometer reactive sensing technologies. The infrared sensor is a multi-spectral, scanning radiometer operating in the 8 to 14 micron region. A 2 x 5 detector array with parallel-serial scanning produces 60 degrees horizontal and 10 degrees vertical-fields of view. Using multiple wavelength signals, azimuth temperature gradients are analyzed for characteristic signatures of thermally induced windshear phenomena. Elevation temperature gradients are processed through an atmosphere model to continuously compute a stability index for arming microburst detection criteria. The atmosphere model and proprietary computer processing algorithms combine to generate coarse estimates of disturbance ranges based on multiple wavelength radiance data with different extinction coefficients. Computer outputs of atmospheric stability, disturbance intensity, and azimuth and range information provide a situation display capability. A ground operated, experimental radiometer has been developed and is being used to verify the detection and discrimination concepts at an atmospheric and simulated rain test facility in Milwaukee. A prototype airborne radiometer is being developed for flight test evaluation during the summer of 1989.

Gallagher, Brian J.↗

Mars Aerocapture and Validation of Mars-GRAM with TES Data

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is a widely-used engineering- level Mars atmospheric model. Applications include systems design, performance analysis, and operations planning for aerobraking, entry descent and landing, and aerocapture. Typical Mars aerocapture periapsis altitudes (for systems with rigid-aeroshell heat shields) are about 50 km. This altitude is above the 0-40 km height range covered by Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) nadir observations. Recently, TES limb sounding data have been made available, spanning more than two Mars years (more than 200,000 data profiles) with altitude coverage up to about 60 km, well within the height range of interest for aerocapture. Results are presented comparing Mars-GRAM atmospheric density with densities from TES nadir and limb sounding observations. A new Mars-GRAM feature is described which allows individual TES nadir or limb profiles to be extracted from the large TES databases, and to be used as an optional replacement for standard Mars-GRAM background (climatology) conditions. For Monte-Carlo applications such as aerocapture guidance and control studies, Mars-GRAM perturbations are available using these TES profile background conditions.

Justus, C. G.↗

Uncertainty Quantification and Parameter Tuning in the CAM5 Zhang-McFarlane Convection Scheme and Impact of Improved Convection on the Global Circulation and Climate

In this study, we applied an uncertainty quantification (UQ) technique to improve convective precipitation in the global climate model, the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), in which the convective and stratiform precipitation partitioning is very different from observational estimates. We examined the sensitivity of precipitation and circulation to several key parameters in the Zhang-McFarlane deep convection scheme in CAM5, using a stochastic importance-sampling algorithm that can progressively converge to optimal parameter values. The impact of improved deep convection on the global circulation and climate was subsequently evaluated. Our results show that the simulated convective precipitation is most sensitive to the parameters of the convective available potential energy consumption time scale, parcel fractional mass entrainment rate, and maximum downdraft mass flux fraction. Using the optimal parameters constrained by the observed Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, convective precipitation improves the simulation of convective to stratiform precipitation ratio and rain-rate spectrum remarkably. When convection is suppressed, precipitation tends to be more confined to the regions with strong atmospheric convergence. As the optimal parameters are used, positive impacts on some aspects of the atmospheric circulation and climate, including reduction of the double Intertropical Convergence Zone, improved East Asian monsoon precipitation, and improved annual cycles of the cross-equatorial jets, are found as a result of the vertical and horizontal redistribution of latent heat release from the revised parameterization. Positive impacts of the optimal parameters derived from the 2 simulations are found to transfer to the 1 simulations to some extent.

CAM5↗

Time-Resolved Ultraviolet Spectroscopy of The M-Dwarf GJ 876 Exoplanetary System

Extrasolar planets orbiting M-stars may represent our best chance to discover habitable worlds in the coming decade. The ultraviolet spectrum incident upon both Earth-like and Jovian planets is critically important for proper modeling of their atmospheric heating and chemistry. In order to provide more realistic inputs for atmospheric models of planets orbiting low-mass stars, we present new near- and far-ultraviolet (NUV and FUV) spectroscopy of the M-dwarf exoplanet host GJ 876 (M4V). Using the COS and STIS spectrographs on board the Hubble Space Telescope, we have measured the 1150-3140 A spectrum of GJ 876. We have reconstructed the stellar H1 Ly alpha emission line profile, and find that the integrated Ly alpha flux is roughly equal to the rest of the integrated flux (1150-1210 A + 1220-3140 A) in the entire ultraviolet bandpass (F(Ly alpha)/F(FUV+NUV) equals approximately 0.7). This ratio is approximately 2500x greater than the solar value. We describe the ultraviolet line spectrum and report surprisingly strong fluorescent emission from hot H2 (T(H2) greater than 2000 K). We show the light curve of a chromospheric + transition region flare observed in several far-UV emission lines, with flare/quiescent flux ratios greater than or equal to 10. The strong FUV radiation field of an M-star (and specifically Ly alpha) is important for determining the abundance of O2--and the formation of biomarkers-in the lower atmospheres of Earth-like planets in the habitable zones of low-mass stars.

France, Kevin↗

Time-Resolved Ultraviolet Spectroscopy of the M-Dwarf GJ 876 Exoplanetary System

Extrasolar planets orbiting M-stars may represent our best chance to discover habitable worlds in the coming decade. The ultraviolet spectrum incident upon both Earth-like and Jovian planets is critically important for proper modeling of their atmospheric heating and chemistry. In order to provide more realistic inputs for atmospheric models of planets orbiting low-mass stars, we present new near- and far-ultraviolet (NUV and FUV) spectroscopy of the M-dwarf exoplanet host GJ 876 (U4V). Using the COS and STIS spectrographs aboard the Hubble Space Telescope, we have measured the 1150 - 3140 Ang. spectrum of GJ 876. We have reconstructed the stellar H I Ly-alpha emission line profile, and find that the integrated Ly-apha flux is roughly equal to the rest of the integrated flux (1150 - 1210 Ang + 1220 - 3140 Ang) in the entire ultraviolet bandpass (F(Ly-alpha)/F(FUV+NUV) approximately equals 0.7). This ratio is approximately 2500 x greater than the solar value. We describe the ultraviolet line spectrum and report surprisingly strong fluorescent emission from hot H2 (T(H2) > 2000 K). We show the light-curve of a chromospheric + transition region flare observed in several far-UV emission lines, with flare/ quiescent flux ratios :2: 10. The strong FUV radiation field of an M-star (and specifically Ly-alpha) is important for determining the abundance of O2 - and the formation of biomarkers - in the lower atmospheres of Earth-like planets in the habitable zones of low-mass stars.

France, Kevin↗

Constraining the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes using satellite observations

The increase in cloud optical depth with warming at middle and high latitudes is a robust cloud feedback response found across all climate models. This study builds on results that suggest the optical depth response to temperature is timescale invariant for low-level clouds. The timescale invariance allows one to use satellite observations to constrain the models' optical depth feedbacks. Three passive-sensor satellite retrievals are compared against simulations from eight models from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This study confirms that the low-cloud optical depth response is timescale invariant in the AMIP simulations, generally at latitudes higher than 40°. Compared to satellite estimates, most models overestimate the increase in optical depth with warming at the monthly and interannual timescales. Many models also do not capture the increase in optical depth with estimated inversion strength that is found in all three satellite observations and in previous studies. The discrepancy between models and satellites exists in both hemispheres and in most months of the year. A simple replacement of the models' optical depth sensitivities with the satellites' sensitivities reduces the negative shortwave cloud feedback by at least 50% in the 40°–70°S latitude band and by at least 65% in the 40°–70°N latitude band. Furthermore, based on this analysis of satellite observations, we conclude that the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes is likely too negative in climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗