Modeling investment decisions from heterogeneous firms under imperfect information and risk in wholesale electricity markets
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Anwar, Muhammad Bashar (ORCID:0000000291846700)↗
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Results for “test plan”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Coastal-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) Science Plan
Understanding the mechanisms governing the urban atmospheric environment is critical for informing urban populations regarding the impacts of climate change and associated mitigation and adaptation measures. Earth system (climate and weather) models have not yet been adapted to provide accurate predictions of climate and weather variability within cities, nor do they provide well-tested representations of the impacts of urban systems on the atmospheric environment. These limitations are largely due to limited field data available for testing and development of these models. We will deploy the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s first Mobile Facility (AMF1) to the mid-Atlantic region surrounding the city of Baltimore for the Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE). This deployment will create a four-node regional atmospheric observatory network including Baltimore and its three primary surrounding environments – rural, urban, and bay. CoURAGE investigators will study the interactions among the Earth’s surface, the atmospheric boundary layer, aerosols and atmospheric composition, clouds, radiation, and precipitation at each site, and examine how the spatial gradients across the region interact to create the climate conditions in Baltimore. This study will determine the degree to which Baltimore’s atmospheric environment depends on interactive feedbacks in the atmospheric system and the degree to which conditions in Baltimore depend on the surrounding environment. Some topics of interest include how urban land management exacerbates heat waves, the impact of regional mesoscale winds (nocturnal jet, bay breeze) on urban air pollution and cloud cover, and the impact of the urban heat island and aerosol production on heavy precipitation events. Understanding this integrated coast-urban-rural system quantitatively and with good accuracy and precision is critical to informing climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the city of Baltimore. The understanding gained should be applicable to many similar coastal, mid-latitude urban centers. Another important objective of CoURAGE is to improve the representation of the climate of coastal cities in Earth systems models (ESMs). CoURAGE investigators will use the observations to test current ESMs, identify weaknesses and work towards improved simulations of this complex environment. The ARM core facility will be deployed in the city of Baltimore, complementing the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC), a DOE urban integrated field laboratory (UIFL). Ancillary sites will be deployed to rural Maryland northwest of Baltimore, and to the southern end of Kent Island within Chesapeake Bay. The fourth node will be a long-term atmospheric observatory operated in Beltsville, Maryland by Howard University and the Maryland Department of the Environment. Measurements will be conducted for one year, starting in December of 2024. There will be two intensive operational periods (IOPs), one in summer and one in winter, when the ancillary sites will be enhanced with additional balloon launches, tethered balloon system (TBS) operation, and added atmospheric composition measurements.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Fast Reactor Database Utilization for Qualification of Metallic Fuel Forms
The DOE Advanced Reactor Technologies program has supported efforts to recover and preserve metallic fuel data generated throughout the past fast reactor R&D programs. Those efforts are currently focused on establishing databases for information from the experiments conducted during the Integral Fast Reactor program including data generated at EBR-II, FFTF, and TREAT reactors, as well as out of pile transient testing data. These databases are essential for future licensing activities of metallic fuel based advanced fast reactors. This report describes the EBR-II Fuels Irradiation & Physics Database (FIPD) development, content updates, data qualification status, and user support. Future plans are also provided.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Fundamental Studies of the Vibrational, Electronic, and Photophysical Properties of Tetrapyrrolic Architectures
The ability to capture and utilize light in the near-ultraviolet (NUV), visible and near-infrared (NIR-I and NIR-II) spectral regions (i.e., 320–400, 400–700, 700–1000, 1000–1700 nm) is essential for any solar-energy conversion scheme. Nature employs chlorophylls and bacteriochlorophylls in light-harvesting architectures to absorb light in the blue and red/NIR regions. Accessory pigments (carotenoids, bilins) augment absorption of the (bacterio)chlorophylls in the green region. The harvested energy is funneled to a reaction center protein, where charge separation occurs. Subsequent migration of the electron and the hole stabilizes and stores the energy from light via redox chemistry. The long-term objective of the Bocian/Holten&Kirmaier/Lindsey research program under this DOE grant has been to develop tetrapyrrole-based molecular architectures that absorb sunlight, funnel energy and separate charge with high efficiency. Integral to the program has been iterative cycles of design, synthesis and characterization that provided deep insights into the relationships between chemical composition, electronic structure, and key static and dynamic properties (vibrational, redox, photophysical, energy/charge transfer) of tetrapyrrolic systems. Such architectures included monomers, dyads, larger arrays, and complexes with accessory components. The objective was to develop molecular designs and guiding principles to enhance current and future energy-conversion schemes. Molecular arrays targeted to address one or more fundamental questions concerning light harvesting and energy/charge transfer were constructed from analogues of the naturally occurring hemes, chlorophylls and bacteriochlorophylls. Diverse, tunable synthetic building blocks were prepared that spanned the three respective tetrapyrrole families, which are the porphyrins, chlorins and bacteriochlorins. Thus, the research focused on porphyrins as well as synthetic surrogates for chlorophylls (chlorins, 13 1 -oxophorbines and chlorin-imides) and bacteriochlorophylls (bacteriochlorins, bacterio-13 1 -oxophorbines and bacteriochlorin-imides), generically termed hydroporphyrins. Although the three tetrapyrrole classes (porphyrins, chlorins and bacteriochlorins) absorb light strongly in the violet-blue spectral region, the long-wavelength absorption band typically lies in the green-orange, red, and NIR regions, respectively, with increasing intensity. Understanding the spectra, electronic structure, and energy/charge-transfer properties of such tetrapyrrolic macrocycles is of central importance for the rational design of molecular architectures for solar-energy conversion. Our integrated program of molecular design and synthesis coupled with a variety of spectroscopic, electrochemical, and computational studies have probed from first principles how structural and electronic properties of tetrapyrrolic macrocycles dictate spectral properties as well as the rates of ground-state hole/electron transfer and excited-state energy flow in multicomponent architectures. Individual molecules and multicomponent architectures were designed to test ideas of fundamental importance, often requiring the development of new synthetic methodology. The members of the collaborative team had almost daily discussions by phone and/or e-mail concerning design of molecules, flow of compounds between the labs, planning of physical characterization studies, discussing results and analysis and integrating into design of next generation architectures, and the preparation of manuscripts. Furthermore, students and postdocs in the different labs routinely communicated with one another to facilitate the advancement of the research activities. In short, a highly integrated and collaborative research program was well established among the groups. The research effort involved molecular design and synthesis of synthetic molecular architectures by the Lindsey group integrated with physicochemical and photophysical characterization by the Bocian group and the Holten&Kirmaier group (Figure 2). The Bocian group carried out electrochemical, electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR), resonance Raman (RR), and Fourier-transform infrared (FT-IR) studies, as well as density functional theory (DFT) calculations and the time-dependent extension (TDDFT) to gain insight into excited-state properties. The Holten&Kirmaier group carried out static and time-resolved absorption and fluorescence spectroscopy studies and simulated absorption spectra using molecular orbital (MO) energies from DFT as input to the four-orbital model to complement the TDDFT calculations. The combined measurements provided understanding of the vibrational/electronic properties of the individual molecules and the changes that occur upon incorporation into multicomponent architectures. This information underpinned elucidating the mechanisms and timescales of ground-state hole/electron transfer and excited-state energy and charge transfer.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Mitigating Impact Through Community-Engaged Flood Modeling
Urban pluvial flooding poses a growing threat to the city of Baltimore, driven by heavy rainfall, increased impervious area, and aging infrastructure. Adapting to the risks posed by pluvial flooding is critical for building greater climate resiliency in Baltimore's Inner Harbor Watershed. This study addresses these challenges through community-informed decision analysis, which uses hydrologic modeling and optimization tools to identify robust flooding adaptation pathways. We will collaborate with community partners to identify key concerns and objectives regarding flooding. These concerns have been purposefully built in to a combined surface-subsurface dynamic flow simulation model. Model outputs are used to identify flooding locations within the Inner Harbor, and to test adaptation methods. Machine learning will be used search for solutions which meet diverse environmental, financial, and social goals, and solution performance will be examined under a wide range of potential future climatic conditions and integrated with an adaptive planning approach. This novel set of adaptation pathways will enhance the City's capacity to respond to evolving pluvial flood risk.
climate resilience↗
Niobium to Titanium Electron Beam Welding for SRF Cavities
Titanium and niobium are the main materials used for the fabrication of Superconducting Radio Frequency (SRF) cavities. These two metals are usually joined , using various welding techniques, using a third material in between. This contribution focuses on the development of an innovative electron beam welding technique capable of producing a strong bond between these two different materials. Several samples are produced and tested to assess the mechanical strength at room and cryogenic temperature as well as the composition of the resulting welded joint. Also, the first units of the Single Spoke Resonator type 2 (SSR2) cavities for the Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II [1]) have been fabricated joining directly various grades of titanium to niobium and results gathered through the fabrication will be reported.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
805 Stepped Plan Project Description
The 805 MHz system utilizes 1.25 MW class klystron amplifiers. The Solid-State Amplifier (SSA) technology has been utilized in the SC accelerator technology, but more powerful sources are needed for use in the NC accelerator facilities such as LASNCE. The SSA topologies that are widely used need to be scaled and tested for reliability and operation in a high impact accelerator facility, such as the 805 MHz SCCL in Los Alamos. Operational experience with high power SSA needs to be assessed prior to installation of an SSA unit at LANSCE. The RFE group at LANSCE is looking for collaboration in the development of the Solid-State Amplifier.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
Closure Report for Corrective Action Unit 116: Area 25 Test Cell C Facility, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada with ROTC-1
CR loaded to this OSTI record. Just adding new file which includes CR plus new ROTC 1 and update the metadata to the following: This Closure Report (CR) presents information supporting closure of Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 116, Area 25 Test Cell C Facility. This CR complies with the requirements of the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) that was agreed to by the State of Nevada; the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Environmental Management; the U.S. Department of Defense; and DOE, Legacy Management (FFACO, 1996 [as amended March 2010]). CAU 116 consists of the following two Corrective Action Sites (CASs), located in Area 25 of the Nevada National Security Site: (1) CAS 25-23-20, Nuclear Furnace Piping and (2) CAS 25-41-05, Test Cell C Facility. CAS 25-41-05 consisted of Building 3210 and the attached concrete shield wall. CAS 25-23-20 consisted of the nuclear furnace piping and tanks. Closure activities began in January 2007 and were completed in August 2011. Activities were conducted according to Revision 1 of the Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration Plan for CAU 116 (U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office [NNSA/NSO], 2008). This CR provides documentation supporting the completed corrective actions and provides data confirming that closure objectives for CAU 116 were met. Site characterization data and process knowledge indicated that surface areas were radiologically contaminated above release limits and that regulated and/or hazardous wastes were present in the facility. The Record of Technical Change 1 updated the use restriction information.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A Machine Learning Approach for Hourly Traffic Prediction Used in EV-Charging Sites
Reliable forecasting of hourly traffic volumes on highways is critical for planning and operating electric-vehicle charging infrastructure without overloading the grid. In this work, we develop and evaluate a station-specific machine-learning approach based on NeuralProphet, enhanced with conditional seasonality to better distinguish weekday, weekend, and holiday patterns. For each station, the model automatically retrieves the same calendar day from the prior years as an AR-Net initialization, fits trend and Fourier-based seasonality components, and then applies short-term auto-regressive corrections. We train and test on 2021 and 2022 TMAS data, respectively, and validate performance over the whole year. We chose to demonstrate how the model performs on a typical weekday (3/15/2022), weekend (3/27/2022), and a special holiday (12/25/2022). Our results yield MAPE of 7.4%, 23.6%, and 32.0%, respectively. Over the entire year 2022, the overall MAPE was 17%. This demonstrates that station-specific models with conditional seasonality can achieve accurate, scalable hourly forecasts for EV-charging load planning.
99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Investigation of irradiation damage and heat deposition: a comparative analysis for HEU-to-LEU conversion in HFIR
The planned conversion of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel requires detailed evaluation of experiment-relevant parameters to ensure continued performance for materials testing and isotope production. Here, this study presents the first comprehensive assessment of displacements per atom (dpa) and heat deposition rates in target materials within the HFIR flux trap with both HEU and candidate LEU core configurations. Seven analyses were conducted to evaluate key performance metrics, including fast neutron flux distribution, cross section response functions, cross section data, and local dpa and heat deposition rates using mesh- and cell-based tallies. Simulations employed Shift, Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP), and the HIFR Controller (HFIRCON) tool suite for high-fidelity transport and depletion modeling. The LEU designs—using U 3 Si 2 -Al dispersion fuel and operating at 95 MW—were compared to the current 85 MW HEU configuration. Results show that while the candidate LEU cores exhibit higher dpa rates due to a harder spectrum and extended cycle lengths, they also demonstrate reduced heat deposition rates in irradiation experiments, primarily due to increased gamma self-shielding from higher 238 U content in the core. These findings confirm that LEU conversion can maintain HFIR’s materials irradiation capabilities but may require redesigning existing experimental hardware.
HEU↗
Developing a small participant framework: An investigation of mode choice influential factors
An in-depth comprehension of the changing impact of mode choice influencing factors is essential in planning for behavior-adaptive mode shift policies. This study developed a framework to investigate a method of evaluation of the changes in mode choice using a small participation pool. A field application in Pima County, Arizona was developed to test the developed framework to evaluate the impact of a real transit experience. Twenty-two participants were recruited and repeated measurements were taken before and after their transit trip. The results revealed that people are less susceptible to their mental biases after a transit trip and consider more objective elements such as walking time. The developed framework resulted in successful evaluation methods that are reproducible for other application study designs. Thus, the results further present that low participant recruitment in application-based field studies can be accomplished using this developed methodology, for other regions and studies.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Development of the first 1 GHz niobium-tin quarter-wave cavity
Niobium-Tin (Nb3Sn) is a promising alternative to pure niobium for low-beta ion accelerators due to low RF losses even at high frequencies. At 4.5 K, the expected Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer resistance of Nb3Sn is a few nano-Ohms at 1 GHz, with two orders of magnitude improvement compared to pure niobium. The low Nb3Sn RF losses allow the use of higher frequency, much smaller cavities while maintaining 4.5 K operation that is compatible with cryocoolers. This work aims to demonstrate the feasibility of coating a high-frequency 1 GHz, compact quarter-wave cavity. The development of this cavity has the potential to transform low-beta ion accelerators through size reductions and by enabling the replacement of large helium cryoplants with small plug-in cryocoolers. We have designed, built, and tested a 1GHz Nb3Sn coated quarter-wave cavity. Nb3Sn coating has been performed once by vapor diffusion at Fermilab. Cryogenic cold tests show a quality factor of ~1E9 at low accelerating electric fields or ~7 times higher than the theoretical limit for pure niobium at 1GHz. This first coating does not yet meet our quality factor or gradient goals; however, we plan to continue to develop this cavity.
Zhou, Yang [Argonne]↗
Cesium Removal Performance Comparisons of Crystalline Silicotitanate Media Batches with Savannah River Site Waste Simulant
The Tank Closure Cesium Removal (TCCR) system uses ion exchange columns filled with Crystalline Silicotitanate (CST) media to process radioactive waste solutions for the removal of Cs- 137. The TCCR project is currently focused on dissolving Savannah River Site (SRS) Tank 10H waste (primarily sodium salt cake solids) within the tank followed by at-tank ion exchange column treatment. Plans are underway to prepare and install a second TCCR unit at SRS. Capacity and particle size differences exist between archived (IE-911) and more recently prepared CST media batches (9120-B and 9140-B). Side-by-side comparison testing was performed to evaluate the cesium removal performance of each batch to aid in selecting the preferred CST batch and media characteristics to load into the second TCCR unit. Batch contact equilibrium and flow-through column tests have been conducted with three CST batches using an SRS Average Simulant.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Underground Test Area (UGTA) Corrective Action Unit 97: Yucca Flat/Climax Mine, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada (Closure Report)
This CR describes the selected corrective action to be implemented during closure to protect human health and the environment from groundwater impacted by the underground nuclear testing within the YF/CM CAU. The purpose of the CR is to describe the selected corrective action. Summarize previous activities and conclusions that support CAU closure. Present final contaminant boundaries, use restriction (UR) boundaries, and regulatory boundaries. Provide an implementation plan for long-term monitoring and well network maintenance and identify the approaches and policies for institutional controls.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Autonomous System Subversion Tactics: Prototypes and Recommended Countermeasures
One of the fielding requirements for Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (AR/SMR) is the ability to support remote and autonomous operations. Autonomous Control Systems (ACS) are found on platforms such as Autonomous Space Vehicles, Cruise Missiles, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Each of these ACS implementations depends upon a set of decision support subsystems responsible for supporting Autonomous Mission Managers (names vary based upon field and author preferences). These Autonomous Mission Managers receive inputs from system sensors (e.g., LIDAR collection from an automobile travelling down a street; transients from a nuclear reactor), and perform a set of classifications (e.g., Red Traffic Light; Small Pedestrian at 10m; Load Rejection; Single Coolant Pump Trip), and then use these classifications in combination with recommendation algorithms to achieve platform goals (e.g., Stop the Vehicle at the Traffic Light, Avoid the Small Pedestrian; Trip the Reactor to prevent a Safety Event). The design, implementation, and fielding of an ACS capability will alter the cyber-attack surface such that existing risk management plans will need to be updated to include how to protect and defend against data-science and decision-support-system attack classes. These attack classes would include protection of the design and training environments where algorithm selection and testing and training data would be obvious attack vectors. These attack classes would also require an informed set of detection and response procedures to identify anomalous behaviors and document best practices for anomaly assessment and vulnerability mitigation and remediation. Last year we published a Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for AR/SMRs along with a companion publication on Cyber Attack and Defense Use Cases. The focus of the methodology was on describing and enumerating ACS processes, components, and functions such that security engineers could: evaluate subversion options against the target; identify threat actor attributes and capabilities derived from each subversion option; and identify security controls and response countermeasures. The Use Cases document offered detailed methodology examples including an assessment of a Military Base SMR, an Autonomous System Decision Loop, and implementation of AR/SMR Machine Learning algorithms. Our proposal at the end of last year was to focus on implementation of subversion prototypes related to the last Use Case area: AR/SMR Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms. We included six attack scenarios in our Use Cases paper: a Poisoning Attack against ML functions implemented using an FPGA; a Trojaning Attack against ML classifiers exploiting the excitability of Nuclear Engineers; a Backdooring Attack against ML Training environments to ensure persistence of an attack vector; a False Positive Evasion Attack against multi-factor Access Control Systems using clever inputs; an Inference Attack against ML models by an Insider with access to the Operational environment; and an Adversarial Reprogramming Attack against a Material Access Control Video Surveillance System. At the beginning of this year these six attack scenarios were provided to our research teams at Georgia Tech and Idaho State University and each team successfully implemented a subversion attack against a ML implementation to include transient misclassifications. While this is a notable outcome from this type of research, this paper offers the reader insight into not only how to structure and execute these types of attacks, but into the thought process behind how the researcher investigated the problem space, performed initial algorithm implementation, and the trial-and-error behind arriving at the successful subversion prototypes. We include in this paper a set of associated Scenarios on how these subversion prototypes could be implemented and an initial set of guidance for AR/SMR architects, Nuclear Regulators, and Cyber Defenders to implement awareness and defense capabilities into their current operational portfolios.
42 ENGINEERING↗
5ω Optical Thomson Scattering Report
The 5ω Optical Thomson Scattering system on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is a diagnostic designed to measure temporally and spatially resolved plasma conditions in Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) Hohlraums. The system was proposed in 2014 and a phased approach to implementation was developed. In phase one the collection system was designed, built, and fielded on the NIF to be used for 3ω Thomson scattering measurements and background measurements near 211 nm (5ω. The initial commissioning experiment for the collection system was completed in Oct. 2016. Commissioning of the collection system continued through 2017 and the system is now fielded for a range of user experiments and regularly produces publication quality data. A dedicated 5ω probe laser was designed and built to allow Thomson scattering measurements in the presence of 2 MJ of 3ω drive energy. Due to scattered light (spectral reflections, laser-plasma instabilities, and unconverted drive energy) from the 3w drive lasers typical wavelengths (2ω and 4ω) fielded at other laser facilities like the Nova Laser Facility and the Omega Laser Facility were unable to meeting the signal to background requirements in design studies. A 10 Joule 5ω probe was proposed as a solution that met requirements. This 10 Joule laser was more energetic than previously fielded 5w lasers by 2-3 orders of magnitude. As part of a risk reduction plan, phase two of the project was to develop a 1 Joule, 5ω laser to demonstrate conversion efficiency >20% from 1ω to 5ω and make initial Thomson scattering measurements in the first few nanoseconds of an ICF laser pulse. Initial tests of the 5w conversion were completed at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics (LLE) and produced record 5ω energies. Based on these results from LLE, a 1 Joule, 5w laser system was designed for the NIF in 2018 and commissioning began in 2019. Commissioning of the 5ω laser system continued through 2023 and was eventually paused in Q1 of FY24 due to completing resource constraints. Commissioning of the 5w laser system proved incredibly challenging. Multiple issues were identified during commissioning and resolved, but issues remain. Currently there is not a clear understanding of why 5ω scattered has not been detected on the OTS collection system. Based on offline measurements, calculations, and preshot measurements the system appears to meet all requirements. Potential target physics issues have been investigated and do not appear to be an issue. The current hypothesis is that there is an error in one or more aspects of the offline testing not translating to expected performance when the system is fielded on the NIF. Additional full system testing in-situ utilizing the complete OTS system and NIF target chamber center time is needed to further test potential failure modes.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Fuels Irradiation and Physics Database (FIPD) Development and Data Qualification FY24 Updates
The DOE-NE Advanced Reactor Technologies program has supported efforts to recover and preserve metallic fuel data generated throughout the past fast reactor R&D programs. Those efforts are currently focused on establishing databases for information from the experiments conducted during the Integral Fast Reactor program including data generated at EBR-II, FFTF, and TREAT reactors, as well as out of pile transient testing data. These databases are essential for future-licensing activities of metallic fuel based advanced fast reactors. This report describes the Metallic Fuels Irradiation & Physics Database (FIPD) development, content updates, data qualification status, and user support in FY24. Future plans are also provided.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
An updated estimate of the Mu2e experiment sensitivity
The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for the conversion of a negative muon into an electron inside the field of a nucleus. This process does not conserve charged-lepton flavour and is heavily suppressed in the Standard Model (SM), with a branching ratio < 10-50. Any evidence of it would be an undeniable evidence of new physics beyond the SM. The project sets out to achieve a single event sensitivity of $\sim 3 × 10^{-17}$ on the ratio between the probability for a conversion of a negative muon into an electron and the one for a muon capture by the nucleus. Such a sensitivity would represent a 4 orders of magnitude improvement on the previous upper limit for the process, making possible to test predictions of different extensions of the SM. Mu2e uses three superconducting solenoids to produce and measure the muon conversions. In the first solenoid, the Production Solenoid, pions and kaons are produced, together with other secondary products, by 8 GeV kinetic energy proton interactions in a tungsten target. A gradient magnetic field is specifically designed to direct low momentum particles into the Transport Solenoid, an S-shaped magnet that filters out particles with unwanted charge and momentum. Muons, produced by pion and kaon decays, finally reach the aluminum Stopping Target in the Detector Solenoid, where they eventually stop and convert. The result of the conversion process is a monochromatic electron of ~105 MeV/c momentum. The Detector Solenoid also hosts the two main detectors: a straw tube tracker and two CsI calorimeter disks, both providing measurement of event kinematics. A germanium detector and a LaBr crystal are located downstream of the Detector Solenoid to measure the X and gamma rays produced by the muon captures in the Stopping Target. A veto system of scintillators covering the Detector Solenoid and half of the Transport Solenoid is used to identify and reject cosmic rays interactions. With respect to the initial project, the Mu2e running plan has evolved to a staged configuration with 2 years at reduced intensity before the 2025 accelerator shutdown for the neutrino beam upgrade and 2 or 3 years at full intensity after that. This, together with geometry changes and a better knowledge of detector performances obtained by the first slice tests, has required a full revision of the signal over background selection that is the subject of this thesis. In order to achieve a new estimate of Mu2e sensitivity, the simulation of the data corresponding to the first 2 years of data acquisition has been performed. This includes both conversion electrons (CE) and the main sources of background: cosmics, decay-in orbits (DIO), radiative pion captures (RPC) and antiprotons. The characteristics of the signal and of the main backgrounds have been studied to define the best selection variables for CE. A special effort has been devoted to the evaluation of the antiproton background. The lack of experimental data for antiproton production cross section makes the systematic uncertainty on this background significant. A new parameterization of the cross section has been developed to fit the existing data and to provide a more reliable estimate of the systematic uncertainty by comparing the results of the old and the new model. A special effort has been devoted to the optimization of the antiprotons Monte Carlo generator. This study has also revealed that the dominant component within this background is represented by antiprotons produced in the opposite direction with respect to the Transport Solenoid entrance and then redirected to it by back-scattering processes in the Production Target. This ultimately highlights the sensitivity of the background estimate to the G4 handling of antiproton interactions in the 1 to 3 GeV/c momentum range. Finally, the final experimental sensitivity has been studied. The momentum and time selection have been optimized to obtain the 5-sigma discovery reach or, in case of no signal, the upper limit on conversion probability. The results confirm that, in the firs t two years of data taking, Mu2e will be able to improve the current experimental sensitivity for muon-to-electron conversion in an atomic field by more than 3 order of magnitudes.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗