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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

High Value Opportunities to Advance Automation in Electric Grid Control Rooms

Grid operators and electric utilities are increasingly driven to develop automated processes and introduce decision support tools to reduce cognitive demand on System Operations staff and aid in the operational decision-making process. However, System Operation staff are traditionally hesitant to implement and accept new solutions, automation processes, and tools within the control room. This paper explores high-value opportunities to advance automation in electric grid control rooms for the purpose of improving grid safety, reliability, and resiliency during normal and emergency operating conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

The value of fusion energy to a decarbonized United States electric grid

Fusion could be a part of future decarbonized electricity systems, but it will need to compete with other technologies. In particular, pulsed tokamak plants have a unique operational mode, and evaluating which characteristics make them economically competitive can help select between design pathways. Using a capacity expansion and operations model, here we determined cost thresholds for pulsed tokamaks to reach a range of penetration levels in a future decarbonized US Eastern Interconnection. The required capital cost to reach a fusion capacity of 100 GW varied from $2,700 to $7,500 kW -1 , and the equilibrium penetration increases rapidly with decreasing cost. The value per unit power capacity depends on the variable operational cost and on the cost of its competition, particularly fission, much more than on the pulse cycle parameters. These findings can therefore provide initial cost targets for fusion more generally in the United States.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

HOLISMOKES IX. Neural network inference of strong-lens parameters and uncertainties from ground-based images

Modeling of strong gravitational lenses is a necessity for further applications in astrophysics and cosmology. With the large number of detections in current and upcoming surveys, such as the Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), it is pertinent to investigate automated and fast analysis techniques beyond the traditional and time-consuming Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods. Building upon our (simple) convolutional neural network (CNN), we present here another CNN, specifically a residual neural network (ResNet), that predicts the five mass parameters of a singular isothermal ellipsoid (SIE) profile (lens center x and y, ellipticity e x and e y , Einstein radius θ E ) and the external shear (γ ext, 1 , γ ext, 2 ) from ground-based imaging data. In contrast to our previous CNN, this ResNet further predicts the 1σ uncertainty for each parameter. To train our network, we use our improved pipeline to simulate lens images using real images of galaxies from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Survey (HSC) and from the Hubble Ultra Deep Field as lens galaxies and background sources, respectively. We find very good recoveries overall for the SIE parameters, especially for the lens center in comparison to our previous CNN, while significant differences remain in predicting the external shear. From our multiple tests, it appears that most likely the low ground-based image resolution is the limiting factor in predicting the external shear. Given the run time of milli-seconds per system, our network is perfectly suited to quickly predict the next appearing image and time delays of lensed transients. Therefore, we use the network-predicted mass model to estimate these quantities and compare to those values obtained from our simulations. Unfortunately, the achieved precision allows only a first-order estimate of time delays on real lens systems and requires further refinement through follow-up modeling. Nonetheless, our ResNet is able to predict the SIE and shear parameter values in fractions of a second on a single CPU, meaning that we are able to efficiently process the huge amount of galaxy-scale lenses expected in the near future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Systems and methods for global cyber-attack or fault detection model

An industrial asset may have monitoring nodes that generate current monitoring node values representing a current operation of the industrial asset. An abnormality detection computer may detect when a monitoring node is currently being attacked or experiencing a fault based on a current feature vector, calculated in accordance with current monitoring node values, and a detection model that includes a decision boundary. A model updater (e.g., a continuous learning model updater) may determine an update time-frame (e.g., short-term, mid-term, long-term, etc.) associated with the system based on trigger occurrence detection (e.g., associated with a time-based trigger, a performance-based trigger, an event-based trigger, etc.). The model updater may then update the detection model in accordance with the determined update time-frame (and, in some embodiments, continuous learning).

Xu, Rui↗
DOE OSTI2024

UFNet: Joint U-Net and Fully Connected Neural Network to Bias Correct Precipitation Predictions from

Paper information. Shuang Yu, Indrasis Chakraborty, Gemma J. Anderson, Donald D. Lucas, Yannic Lops, and Daniel Galea. UFNet: Joint U-Net and fully connected neural network to bias correct precipitation predictions from climate models. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, 2024. Overview. This work develops the UFNet methodology to correct E3SM historical precipitation projection bias. The UFNet deep learning framework consists of a two-part architecture: a U-Net convolutional network to capture the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and a fully connected network to capture the distribution of higher-order statistics. The joint network, termed UFNet, can simultaneously improve the spatial structure of the modeled precipitation and capture the distribution of extreme precipitation values. Below we provide guidance for applying UFNet to correct the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM; Golaz et al. 2019) daily precipitation projection over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Getting started 1. Obtain the historical climate simulation and observation data. The E3SM historical simulation data are available through https://aims2.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. The CPC unified gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation can be found through https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cpc.globalprecip.html. The ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century (ERA-20C) data are available through https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-20c. The spatial resolution of E3SM and observed datasets are both regridded to a common 1° resolution grid using conservative interpolation. The regridded E3SM, CPC and ERA-20C with 1° resolution can be found throught ./data/. 2. Train the fully connected network (DNN) Python train_dnn.py 3. Train the UFNet Python train_ufnet.py 4. Evaluation and compared with the baseline Python evaluation.py

Lucas, DonaldD↗
DOE OSTI2024

Life-cycle analysis of offshore macroalgae production systems in the United States

Offshore macroalgae production offers the potential to provide valuable biomass for food, energy, and higher value products without the use of land or freshwater while using excess nutrients and carbon dioxide. To realize this potential, the Macroalgae Research Inspiring Novel Energy Resources program of the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy has initiated projects to develop advanced cultivation technologies that enable the cost- and energy-efficient production of macroalgal biomass. Here, this study addresses the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and energy return on investment for five U.S. offshore macroalgae production systems designed for deployment at the thousand-hectare scale using a detailed module developed within the GREET life-cycle analysis model for this study. The carbon intensity of macroalgae production system designs, expressed as kg of carbon dioxide equivalent per dry metric ton of algae harvested, vary widely from 49 to 220 and confirm that biomass productivity has the highest degree of sensitivity across the model parameters tested. Regardless of the system designs, the upstream and combustion emissions from fuel use are the key contributor (over 45 %) to carbon intensity, indicating that the use of low-carbon fuels (e.g., renewable diesel) could further reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Further studies need to specify the market opportunity and specific product slates for macroalgae to provide a complete picture of the environmental impacts of macroalgal feedstock.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhancing Reliability of Classified Shipments Between the Nuclear Security Enterprise

The extent of this project, as related to by the Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE), is related to the current shipping and logistical issues and optimization opportunities between several different NSE sites that are the basis of the enterprise. This current scope is part of every site’s, described as Design Agency (DA) and Production Agency (PA), normal operation to meet the needs and mission of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). The NSE has a broad mission scope encompassing several differing DA and PA sites to meet the NNSA’s mission. These sites require frequent interaction and shipments of material and items between one another in order to meet the mission needs of the enterprise. Currently, there is no methodology that integrates schedules, standards, orders, processes, and best practices to optimize transfers between the differing sites. A centralized location and standard shipping process will optimize and improve the systems behavior, reducing lag time and increasing throughput at sites today. Ultimately this project proposes a central logistical platform, tiered escalation process, and standardized shipping forms to reduce taxpayer costs to meet the NSE’s mission more efficiently. This increase in processing logistics and process accuracy of shipments will save the NSE, not only from a monetary value, but it will reduce the frustrations of individuals working these outdated and over processed systems to improve their quality of life.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimizing an Integrated Solar-Electrolysis System (CRADA CRD-18-749 Final Report)

Electrolysis powered by renewable sources provides a range of potential values such as carbon-free fuel for power, heat, or transportation; storage; and ancillary grid services. Each of these potential benefits has been studied as individual value streams. However, real-world demonstrations of these benefits working in concert are limited in the United States today as electrolyzers lack access to wholesale electricity prices. High power prices make electrolysis uncompetitive compared to traditional steam methane reformation (SMR). A potentially cost-effective way to demonstrate the value of renewable electrolysis is by powering an electrolyzer directly from a renewable generation source rather than from the electric grid. Integrated with a renewable generation source, the cost of fueling an electrolyzer is the opportunity cost of not selling power from the renewable plant to the grid - effectively, the wholesale electricity price. Additionally, an electrolyzer tied directly to a renewable generator potentially reduces excess generation and increases the value of the ancillary services that the renewable generator can provide to the grid.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Designing an Intrusion Proof Adjustable Speed Drive System Controlling a Critical Process

In this paper, an intrusion proof adjustable speed drive system controlling a critical process in an industrial control system is detailed. In such a system, should the motor speed sensor signal data be compromised and/or altered via a cyber-attack, the system can potentially be unregulated, over speed and/or malfunction thereby disrupting the critical process. The proposed active detection scheme detailed in this paper introduces a private (secret) random signal termed as "watermark" into the inverter control signal that determines the PWM gating signals of the DC-AC inverter powering the motor. The watermarking signal introduced into the PWM modulation for the DC-AC inverter is shown to propagates its unique signature, which appears in all sensors signals at the inverter output such as voltage/current/speed used to control the motor. Now employing the measured data (from sensors), two statistical variance tests are conducted to identify anomalies if any in the presence of the watermarking signal. It is shown when an intrusion occurs to manipulate the sensor data to disturb and/or destabilize the process, the proposed tests immediately display a high value indicating a compromise in sensor data. It is shown that the proposed system is capable of immediate detection of a sophisticated attacks such as record/reply attack in which the actual speed sensor is disconnected and a prerecorded speed signal from the past of the same magnitude is played back to the controller. Several types of cyber-attacks such as speed reduction/increase including vibration have been tested. Extensive simulation results verify the proposed concepts. Experimental results will be discussed in the conference presentation.

Alotaibi, Faris↗
DOE OSTI2026

Technoeconomic Opportunity Analysis for Local Power Generation in Falls City, Nebraska

Falls City is a small community in Nebraska interested in understanding how energy from local energy systems could support the community's economic development planning. To address the current community needs and address the future energy demand technical assistance conducted through the Communities Local Energy Action Program (Communities LEAP) assessed the technical and economic opportunities of adding energy technologies to Falls City's municipally owned and operated electric utility system. The modeling performed considered the technical and economic feasibility of technologies using the System Advisor Model (SAM). The modeling explored three technology configurations using multiple years of historical weather and wholesale cost data (2015-2022 & a typical meteorological year), and two different wholesale escalation rates (0.3% and 2.5%). Wholesale energy prices were based on the Southwest Power Pool's (SPP) real-time energy market and the annual escalation rates of these rates based on historical SPP wholesale and national retail electricity price trends. Results from the modeling showed that at current CAPEX costs and SPP wholesale electricity costs no technology combination averaged across the scenarios run provide a positive net present value (NPV). External financial support, changes in market conditions, and additional revenue streams would help create more economically favorable projects. As conditions change re-evaluation may be necessary.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spectroscopic Analysis of Milky Way Outer Halo Satellites: Aquarius II and Boötes II

In this paper, we present a chemical and kinematic analysis of two ultrafaint dwarf galaxies (UFDs), Aquarius II (Aqu II) and Boötes II (Boo II), using Magellan/IMACS spectroscopy. We present the largest sample of member stars for Boo II (12), and the largest sample of red giant branch members with metallicity measurements for Aqu II (eight). In both UFDs, over 80% of targets selected based on Gaia proper motions turned out to be spectroscopic members. In order to maximize the accuracy of stellar kinematic measurements, we remove the identified binary stars and RR Lyrae variables. For Aqu II, we measure a systemic velocity of -65.3 ± 1.8 km s-1 and a metallicity of [Fe/H] = $-2.57^{+0.17}_{-0.17}$. When compared with previous measurements, these values display a ~6 km s -1 difference in radial velocity and a decrease of 0.27 dex in metallicity. Similarly for Boo II, we measure a systemic velocity of $-130.4^{+1.4}_{-1.1}$ km s -1 , more than 10 km s -1 different from the literature, a metallicity almost 1 dex smaller at [Fe/H] = $-2.71^{+0.11}_{-0.10}$, and a velocity dispersion 3 times smaller at σ v hel = $2.9^{+1.6}_{-1.2}$km s -1 . Additionally, we derive systemic proper-motion parameters and model the orbits of both UFDs. Finally, we highlight the extremely dark-matter-dominated nature of Aqu II and compute the J-factor for both galaxies to aid searches of dark matter annihilation. Despite the small size and close proximity of Boo II, it is an intermediate target for the indirect detection of dark matter annihilation due to its low-velocity dispersion and corresponding low dark matter density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

High dopant activation in arsenic doped single-crystal CdTe thin films: Insights from MBE growth and rapid thermal processing

Single-crystal model systems are valuable tools to investigate fundamental material properties. In this work, we use molecular beam epitaxy to deposit in situ arsenic (As) doped single-crystal CdTe films on large area Si substrates to better understand As doping for photovoltaic applications. We found that As incorporation is highly temperature dependent: a substrate temperature difference of 50 °C can lead to several orders of magnitude difference in As concentration. Cd overpressure during in situ doping may limit out-diffusion of As but decrease As incorporation, especially at lower growth temperatures. Carrier concentrations greater than 10 16 cm −3 can be achieved with or without Cd overpressure when annealed at temperatures above 500 °C. However, unlike the low (∼1% to 5%) dopant activation commonly observed in polycrystalline CdTe, our films achieve significantly higher activation ratios—exceeding 50%, and in some cases approaching 80%. These values are consistent with or exceed prior reports in single-crystal CdTe systems. In addition to as-deposited arsenic concentrations, we also consider arsenic distribution after different rapid thermal processing temperatures. We propose a detailed definition and description of how arsenic incorporation is considered and calculated. Due to carrier concentration saturation, As incorporation also needs to be controlled to average levels of 10 17 cm −3 to achieve high activation. These findings suggest that higher annealing temperature regimes may be beneficial to polycrystalline CdTe based PV devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Demonstration System for Geological Thermal Energy Storage of Concentrating Solar Thermal

Energy storage is increasingly necessary as variable energy technologies are deployed. Seasonal energy storage can shift energy generation from the summer to the winter, but these technologies must have extremely large energy capacities and low costs. Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) is proposed as a solution for long-term energy storage [1]. Excess thermal energy can be stored in permeable reservoirs such as aquifers and depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs for several months. The energy capacity cost of GeoTES is very low which makes it suitable for both daily- and seasonal storage of Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) energy, thus enabling CST to provide value to electricity markets and thermal energy off-takers. A CST-GeoTES demonstration system has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Solar Energy Technology Office. In this article, we will describe this demonstration system and progress that has been made in its development. The demonstration system will comprise a 2 MWth parabolic trough with an 8m aperture developed by Gossamer Space Frames, seven wells, and a 100 kWe power cycle. The demonstration system will be deployed in Kern County, California by Premier Resource Management. A techno-economic model for CST-GeoTES systems has also been developed [3] and is applied to the demonstration system and its planned future expansion. The model integrates the output of specialist models of each subsystem, which enables the performance and cost of both the subsurface and surface systems to be captured. Off-design models enable the performance to be evaluated at each hour of the year, before being aggregated to evaluate the economic potential of CST-GeoTES. Initial analysis indicates that CST-GeoTES can provide long duration energy storage capabilities with low marginal costs of energy capacity - leading to a low value of Levelized Cost of Storage (LCOS) compared to alternative technologies, see Figure 2. In this article, we investigate the cost and performance of the specific demonstration site being developed by PRM and explore a range of operational profiles that can deliver different value streams, such as daily and seasonal storage, capacity, and resiliancy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Designing a Zn–Ag Catalyst Matrix and Electrolyzer System for CO 2 Conversion to CO and Beyond

CO 2 emissions can be transformed into high-added-value commodities through CO 2 electrocatalysis; however, efficient low-cost electrocatalysts are needed for global scale-up. Inspired by other emerging technologies, the authors report the development of a gas diffusion electrode containing highly dispersed Ag sites in a low-cost Zn matrix. Here, this catalyst shows unprecedented Ag mass activity for CO production: –614 mA cm –2 at 0.17 mg of Ag. Subsequent electrolyte engineering demonstrates that halide anions can further improve stability and activity of the Zn–Ag catalyst, outperforming pure Ag and Au. Membrane electrode assemblies are constructed and coupled to a microbial process that converts the CO to acetate and ethanol. Combined, these concepts present pathways to design catalysts and systems for CO 2 conversion toward sought-after products.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

The effect of functional unit and co-product handling methods on life cycle assessment of an algal biorefinery

Microalgae are a promising feedstock for sustainable fuel and nutritional products. To be economically viable, algal biorefineries will need to produce multiple products, such as nutraceuticals and animal feed, in addition to fuel. Life cycle assessment (LCA) has been applied widely to algal biorefineries, but results vary across studies. Here we address two methodological challenges that can lead to variability in LCAs of multi-product algal biorefineries: the choice of functional unit and the method used to handle co-products. LCA was conducted for an algal biorefinery that produces two representative products—fuel and animal feed—using three functional units: (1) 1 MJ fuel, (2) 1 kg animal feed, and (3) 1 ha of production area, coupled with the system expansion method. For the fuel-based functional unit, the system expansion method was compared to impact allocation based on mass, energy, and market value of the biorefinery products. The choice of functional unit affects the results for several environmental indicators. For ecosystem quality, the choice of functional unit can change the overall balance of environmental impacts from harmful to beneficial. The effect of functional unit on climate change depends on the boundary considered in the model—i.e., “well to gate” or “well to wheels”. When a fuel-based functional unit is used, the choice of co-product handling method (i.e., allocation versus the system expansion method) affects environmental impacts, such as ecosystem quality and climate change, differently. For LCAs that use a fuel-based functional unit to compare algal biofuel to other fuels, multiple co-product handling methods should be analyzed and presented to stakeholders. A land based functional unit coupled with the system expansion method can be used to improve LCAs that compare among multi-product algal biorefineries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

gdess: A framework for evaluating simulated atmospheric CO 2 in Earth System Models

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and global warming. Climate-carbon feedbacks are often studied and estimated using Earth System Models (ESMs), which couple together multiple model components—including the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere, and cryosphere—to jointly simulate mass and energy exchanges within and between these components. Despite tremendous advances, model intercomparisons and benchmarking are aspects of ESMs that warrant further improvement (Fer et al., 2021; Smith et al., 2014). Such benchmarking is critical because comparing the value of state variables in these simulations against observed values provides evidence for appropriately refining model components; moreover, researchers can learn much about Earth system dynamics in the process (Randall et al., 2019). We introduce `gdess` (a.k.a., Greenhouse gas Diagnostics for Earth System Simulations), which parses observational datasets and ESM simulation output, combines them to be in a consistent structure, computes statistical metrics, and generates diagnostic visualizations. In its current incarnation, `gdess` facilitates evaluating a model's ability to reproduce observed temporal and spatial variations of atmospheric CO 2 . The diagnostics implemented modularly in `gdess` support more rapid assessment and improvement of model-simulated global CO 2 sources and sinks associated with land and ocean ecosystem processes. We intend for this set of automated diagnostics to form an extensible, open source framework for future comparisons of simulated and observed concentrations of various greenhouse gases across Earth system models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shapiro steps and stability of skyrmions interacting with alternating anisotropy under the influence of ac and dc drives

Here we use atomistic simulations to examine the sliding dynamics of a skyrmion in a two-dimensional system containing a periodic one-dimensional stripe pattern of variations between low and high values of the perpendicular magnetic anisotropy. The skyrmion changes in size as it crosses the interface between two anisotropy regions. On applying combined dc and ac driving in either parallel or perpendicular directions, we observe a wide variety of Shapiro steps, Shapiro spikes, and phase-locking phenomena. The phase-locked orbits have two-dimensional dynamics due to the gyrotropic or Magnus dynamics of the skyrmions and are distinct from the phase-locked orbits found for strictly overdamped systems. Along a given Shapiro step when the ac drive is perpendicular to the dc drive, the velocity parallel to the ac drive is locked while the velocity in the perpendicular direction increases with increasing drive to form Shapiro spikes. At the transition between adjacent Shapiro steps, the parallel velocity jumps up to the next step value, and the perpendicular velocity drops. The skyrmion Hall angle shows a series of spikes as a function of increasing dc drive, where the jumps correspond to the transition between different phase-locked steps. At high drives, the Shapiro steps and Shapiro spikes are lost. When both the ac and dc drives are parallel to the stripe periodicity direction, Shapiro steps appear, while if the dc drive is parallel to the stripe periodicity direction and the ac drive is perpendicular to the stripe periodicity, then there are only two locked phases, and the skyrmion motion consists of a combination of sliding along the interfaces between the two anisotropy values and jumping across the interfaces.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combined Cycle Integrated Thermal Energy Storage “CiTES” (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Phase I of this project confirmed the technical feasibility of a Combined Cycle integrated Thermal Energy Storage “CiTES” system, calculated the key performance parameters like power efficiency and costs, and proved its commercial value with full-year simulations for several US electricity markets with high degree of variable renewable generation and volatile hourly electricity prices. The core element of this project is the Electro Thermal Energy Storage (ETES) technology from Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy GmbH, using thermally stable and inexpensive volcanic rocks as storage material and air as heat transfer medium. This technology is backed by more than 10 years of experience and a 440MMBTU (130MWh-th) pilot plant in Hamburg, Germany, which is in operation since 2019. The integration of this thermal storage in an existing combined cycle power plant (CCPP) is typical power plant technology without any major technology risks. It allows the storage of inexpensive renewable energy during times of surplus renewable generation and the discharge of this energy in times of high energy demand when the fossil plant is in operation. This supplements the fossil power generation with CO2-emission-free energy. The secondary effect of the CiTES system is that a small part of the stored thermal energy is used to keep the heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) and steam turbine (ST) of the combined cycle power plant in hot and ready-to-start condition. This enables the plant to start rapidly when fossil generation is required to satisfy demand as soon variable generation drops off in the evenings or during cloud cover and calm wind periods. Without pre-warming of the HRSG and ST, the CCPP would need several hours for a cold or warm start, burn a lot of gas and release high NOx emissions during start and wouldn’t be able to use the short times of high energy prices in an efficient or economical manner. The economic parameters of CiTES were determined by a full year “8760” simulation using a data set calculation for each of the hours of the year, and historical electricity and gas prices. For consistency, the simulations were focused on the pre-COVID year 2019. The financially most attractive markets were in the Energy Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region, which allowed substantial value generation with arbitrage (charge with cheap energy during renewable surplus times and discharge when energy is needed and expensive). The improvement of flexibility with the CiTES system by pre-heating and warm-keeping of the CCPP allowed for additional power generation during short time periods when demand is high but renewable generation is down; when the hourly energy prices are highest in these markets. The simulations are based on 2019 data, when ERCOT had 27GW of installed photovoltaic (PV) and wind generation. They showed that the created revenue with the prototypically sized CiTES system of 1,000MMBTU (300MWh-th) falls a little bit short of what is expected from a commercially viable investment. The system has optimization opportunities for cost reduction and increased effectiveness which will be realized during a potential Phase II Pre-FEED study following this project. Furthermore, it is safe to assume that a lot of renewable generation capacity will be added all over the US in the coming years. As an example, ERCOT is predicting to more than double its renewable generation from 27GW in 2019 to a forecasted 63GW in 2023. This will increase the amount of renewable overproduction exponentially. This rapid increase of local overproduction and the need to curtail renewable generation is well documented by the California ISO (www.CAISO.com / managing oversupply). However, the simulations also revealed a weakness in the structure of the electricity markets in the US. More specifically, when electricity prices are very low and approaching negative levels, the owners of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) will curtail a part of their facility to stabilize the price by reducing supply. This results in a situation in which storage facilities, which are integrated in existing fossil assets and don’t have the behind-the-meter benefit of a VRE, won’t be able to purchase low cost – otherwise curtailed – renewable energy off the grid. A special tariff, which motivates VRE owners to sell otherwise curtailed renewable energy to storage facilities (Hydrogen, thermal, pumped hydro, etc.) can solve this issue. The implementation of such a regulating tariff by Independent System Operators, thus avoiding renewable curtailment, is a pre condition for successful commercialization for renewable energy storage technologies. With this advancement of design and technology and improvements in the market environment, it can be expected that the Combined Cycle integrated Thermal Energy Storage proves itself as an important innovation to keep highly efficient, natural gas-based power generation economically successful and relevant for the power industry in the United States of America.

Wolf, Thorsten↗