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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,081 records · Page 60
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of Charge Fraction on the Phase Behavior of Symmetric Single-Ion Conducting Diblock Copolymers

A series of symmetric poly[(oligo(ethylene glycol) methyl ether methacrylate-co-oligo(ethylene glycol) propyl sodium sulfonate methacrylate)]-block-polystyrene (PsOEGMA-PS) diblock copolymers were synthesized as a model system to probe the effect of charge fraction on the phase behavior of charged-neutral single-ion conducting diblock copolymers. Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) experiments showed that increasing the charge fraction does not alter the ordered phase morphology (lamellar) but increases the order–disorder transition temperature (T ODT ) significantly. Additionally, the effective Flory–Huggins interaction parameter (χ eff ) was found to increase linearly with the charge fraction, similar to the case of conventional salt-doped diblock copolymers. This indicates that the effect of counterion solvation, attributed to the significant mismatch between the dielectric constant of each block, provides the dominant effect in tuning the phase behavior of this charged diblock copolymer. Lastly, we therefore infer that electrostatic cohesion (local charge ordering induced by Coulombic interactions), which is predicted to suppress microphase separation and lead to asymmetric phase diagrams, only plays a minor role in this model system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Silica Nanodepletors: Targeting and Clearing Alzheimer's beta-Amyloid Plaques

Abnormal accumulation of beta-amyloid (A beta) peptide aggregates in the brain is a major hallmark of Alzheimer's disease (AD). A beta aggregates interfere with neuronal communications, ultimately causing neuronal damage and brain atrophy. Much effort has been made to develop AD treatments that suppress A beta aggregate formation, thereby attenuating A beta-induced neurotoxicity. Here, the design of A beta nanodepletors consisting of ultralarge mesoporous silica nanostructures and anti-A beta single-chain variable fragments, with the goal of targeting and eliminating aggregative A beta monomers, is reported. The A beta nanodepletors impart a notable decline in A beta aggregate formation, resulting in significant mitigation of A beta-induced neurotoxicity in vitro. Furthermore, stereotaxic injections of A beta nanodepletors into the brain of an AD mouse model system successfully suppress A beta plaque formation in vivo up to approximate to 30%, suggesting that A beta nanodepletors can serve as a promising antiamylodoisis material.

Jung, Huijin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Causes and evolution of winter polynyas north of Greenland

During the 42-year period (1979–2020) of satellite measurements, four major winter (December–March) polynyas have been observed north of Greenland: one in December 1986 and three in the last decade, i.e., February of 2011, 2017, and 2018. The 2018 polynya was unparalleled in its magnitude and duration compared to the three previous events. Given the apparent recent increase in the occurrence of these extreme events, this study aims to examine their evolution and causality, in terms of forced versus natural variability. The limited weather station and remotely sensed sea ice data are analyzed combining with output from the fully coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), including one hindcast and two ensemble simulations. We found that neither the accompanying anomalous warm surface air intrusion nor the ocean below had an impact (i.e., no significant ice melting) on the evolution of the observed winter open-water episodes in the region. Instead, the extreme atmospheric wind forcing resulted in greater sea ice deformation and transport offshore, accounting for the majority of sea ice loss in all four polynyas. Our analysis suggests that strong southerly winds (i.e., northward wind with speeds greater than 10 m s –1 ) blowing persistently over the study region for at least 2 d or more were required over the study region to mechanically redistribute some of the thickest Arctic sea ice out of the region and thus to create open-water areas (i.e., a latent heat polynya). To assess the role of internal variability versus external forcing of such events, we carried out and examined results from the two RASM ensembles dynamically downscaled with output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) simulations. Out of 100 winters in each of the two ensembles (initialized 30 years apart: one in December 1985 and another in December 2015), 17 and 16 winter polynyas were produced north of Greenland, respectively. The frequency of polynya occurrence had no apparent sensitivity to the initial sea ice thickness in the study area pointing to internal variability of atmospheric forcing as a dominant cause of winter polynyas north of Greenland. We assert that dynamical downscaling using a high-resolution regional climate model offers a robust tool for process-level examination in space and time, synthesis with limited observations, and probabilistic forecasts of Arctic events, such as the ones being investigated here and elsewhere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in an ombrotrophic peatland: a benchmark for assessing change

Aims Slow decomposition and isolation from groundwater mean that ombrotrophic peatlands store a large amount of soil carbon (C) but have low availability of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). To better understand the role these limiting nutrients play in determining the C balance of peatland ecosystems, we compile comprehensive N and P budgets for a forested bog in northern Minnesota, USA. Methods N and P within plants, soils, and water are quantified based on field measurements. The resulting empirical dataset are then compared to modern-day, site-level simulations from the peatland land surface version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (ELM-SPRUCE).

Salmon, Verity G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Infection and Genomic Properties of Single- and Double-Stranded DNA Cellulophaga Phages

Bacterial viruses (phages) are abundant and ecologically impactful, but laboratory-based experimental model systems vastly under-represent known phage diversity, particularly for ssDNA phages. Here, we characterize the genomes and infection properties of two unrelated marine flavophages—ssDNA generalist phage phi18:4 (6.5 Kbp) and dsDNA specialist phage phi18:1 (39.2 Kbp)—when infecting the same Cellulophaga baltica strain #18 (Cba18), of the class Flavobacteriia. Phage phi18:4 belongs to a new family of ssDNA phages, has an internal lipid membrane, and its genome encodes primarily structural proteins, as well as a DNA replication protein common to ssDNA phages and a unique lysis protein. Phage phi18:1 is a siphovirus that encodes several virulence genes, despite not having a known temperate lifestyle, a CAZy enzyme likely for regulatory purposes, and four DNA methyltransferases dispersed throughout the genome that suggest both host modulation and phage DNA protection against host restriction. Physiologically, ssDNA phage phi18:4 has a shorter latent period and smaller burst size than dsDNA phage phi18:1, and both phages efficiently infect this host. These results help augment the diversity of characterized environmental phage–host model systems by studying infections of genomically diverse phages (ssDNA vs. dsDNA) on the same host.

Howard-Varona, Cristina (ORCID:0000000241495818)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Controlled exposure of CuO thin films through corrosion-protecting, ALD-deposited TiO 2 overlayers

Ultra-thin film coatings are used to protect semiconductor photoelectrodes from the harsh chemical environments common to photoelectrochemical energy conversion. These layers add contact transfer resistance to the interface that can result in a reduction of photoelectrochemical energy conversion efficiency of the photoelectrode. Here, we describe the concept of a partial protection layer, which allows for direct chemical access to a small fraction of the semiconductor underlayer for further functionalization by an electrocatalyst. The rest of the interface remains protected by a stable, inert protection layer. CuO is used as a model system for this scheme. Atomic layer deposition (ALD)-prepared TiO 2 layers on CuO thin films prepared from electrodeposited Cu 2 O allow for the control of interfacial morphology to intentionally expose the CuO underlayer. The ALD-TiO 2 overlayer shrinks during crystallization, while Cu 2 O in the underlayer expands during oxidation. As a result, the TiO 2 protection layer cracks to expose the oxidized underlying CuO layer, which can be controlled by preceding thermal oxidation. Furthermore, this work demonstrates a potentially promising strategy for the parallel optimization of photoelectrochemical interfaces for chemical stability and high performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bulk Diffusion of Cl through O Vacancies in α-Cr 2 O 3 : A Density Functional Theory Study

Many metals form passive oxides which are broken or weakened by anionic-induced degradation leading to material failure and anionic diffusion is an important step of this degradation process. The diffusion of anionic species through oxides involves a combination of diffusion along grain boundaries, cracks, and channels, as well as bulk diffusion via point defects which is the focus of this study. Using density functional theory, we study bulk diffusion of Cl through O vacancies in α -Cr 2 O 3 as a model system for passive metal oxides. Little is known about Cl diffusion and bonding characteristics, so we benchmark our work through comparison to numerous studies on O diffusion in α -Cr 2 O 3 to analyze similarities and differences between the O and Cl diffusion in the passivation and degradation process of α -Cr 2 O 3 respectively. Unlike O diffusion, the lowest diffusion barrier for Cl is cross-plane diffusion between two (0001) planes through a vacant cation site but the much shorter in-plane diffusion path within the same coordination polyhedron has 35% higher barrier. This work provides the basis for considering the contributions of Cl bulk-diffusion in the overall diffusion kinetics of Cl through α -Cr 2 O 3 .

Oware Sarfo, Kofi↗
DOE OSTI2020

X-Ray Diffraction and Electron Microscopy Studies of the Size Effects on Pressure-Induced Phase Transitions in CdS Nanocrystals

In recent years, investigations of the phase transition behavior of semiconducting nanoparticles under high pressure has attracted increasing attention due to their potential applications in sensors, electronics, and optics. However, current understanding of how the size of nanoparticles influences this pressure-dependent property is somewhat lacking. In particular, phase behaviors of semiconducting CdS nanoparticles under high pressure have not been extensively reported. Therefore, in this work, CdS nanoparticles of different sizes are used as a model system to investigate particle size effects on high-pressure-induced phase transition behaviors. In particular, 7.5, 10.6, and 39.7 nm spherical CdS nanoparticles are synthesized and subjected to controlled high pressures up to 15 GPa in a diamond anvil cell. Analysis of all three nanoparticles using in-situ synchrotron wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) data shows that phase transitions from wurtzite to rocksalt occur at higher pressures than for bulk material. Bulk modulus calculations not only show that the wurtzite CdS nanomaterial is more compressible than rocksalt, but also that the compressibility of CdS nanoparticles depends on their particle size. Furthermore, sintering of spherical nanoparticles into nanorods was observed for the 7.5 nm CdS nanoparticles. Our results provide new insights into the fundamental properties of nanoparticles under high pressure that will inform designs of new nanomaterial structures for emerging applications.

Meng, Lingyao↗
DOE OSTI2023

Peatland hydrology across scale: a probabilistic framework for confronting variability, heterogeneity, and uncertainty (Final Report)

Our project aimed to guide the representations of peatland hydrology and water-carbon feedbacks within Earth System Models, by improving process understanding and developing parsimonious models that elucidate the effects of hydroclimatic variability and spatial heterogeneity. Our research questions centered on the three key drivers of peatland hydrology: (1) seasonal and interannual hydroclimatic fluctuations, (2) spatial heterogeneity of peatland microtopography, and (3) hydrological connectivity across landscape units within a peatland watershed. Our analyses and model testing used existing long-term datasets within the Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF), with new data collected whenever necessary. To date, we have demonstrated the strong influence of water table elevations on the temperature sensitivity of CH 4 emissions, using a newly developed eddy covariance dataset spanning eleven years at MEF. Specifically, higher water tables dampen the increase in CH 4 emissions in the spring as well as their decrease in the fall, resulting in hysteresis. These results imply that any hydroclimatological changes in peatlands that shift seasonal water availability from winter to summer will increase annual CH 4 emissions, even if soil temperature remains unchanged. To further investigate water table elevation change within the peatland microtopography, we installed automated water table gauges across four bog-forest transects (the “lagg”) in two peatland watersheds at MEF, which are hotspots of intense biogeochemical activity. These measurements will give us new information about the extent of lagg expansion and contraction during snowmelt and high intensity rainfall events, as well as the directionality of water and nutrient flow into the bog from the surrounding forests. Finally, we investigated the hydrological connectivity across the peatland watershed complex during early spring – a critical period where water table is elevated from snowmelt – using extended hydrological records from MEF (e.g., snow and frost depths, water table elevations, streamflow). The importance of thermal and wintertime processes within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) was determined through sensitivity analyses. Results from data analyses show that (i) streamflow has decreased over decades likely due to increased evapotranspiration rates (despite no detectable trends in precipitation), (ii) spring streamflow generation is controlled by a sequence of fill-and-spill pathways from the snowpack to the stream through peatland water stores, and (iii) frost depth is a key explanatory variable for the timing and magnitude of streamflow. These results suggest that frost plays an important role in connecting surface water storage in peatlands to stream outlets, and that the hydrological connectivity across the peatland watershed complex can mediate the sensitivity of hydrological responses to climate variations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Economic and Environmental Analysis to Evaluate the Potential Value of Co-Optima Diesel Bioblendstocks to Petroleum Refiners

The U.S. petroleum refining sector is undergoing a period of historic transformation, catalyzed by the decarbonization of the U.S. economy. Diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks have gained traction, owing to their superior fuel properties and environmental performance as compared to traditional petroleum fuels. This work couples refinery linear programming models with life cycle assessment to quantify the potential economic and environmental benefits, and trade-offs, of blending diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks at petroleum refineries. Linear programming models were developed in Aspen Process Industry Modeling Systems (PIMS) for three representative petroleum refinery configurations of differing complexity. Seven diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks: 4-butoxyheptane, 5-ethyl-4-propylnonane, soy biodiesel, sludge hydrothermal liquefaction diesel, polyoxymethylene ethers, renewable diesel, and hexyl hexanoate, were investigated to identify key fuel properties that influence refineries' economics and to track the effect of adding bioblendstocks on refinery-wide cradle-to-gate greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. These analyses considered blending levels from 10 to 30 vol% and fuel demand projections over the period 2040 to 2050. This analysis determines that bioblendstock sulfur content and cetane number are the primary fuel attributes with the potential to provide value to refiners. Life cycle assessment results indicate that the use of diesel-boiling-range bioblendstocks can reduce cradle-to-gate refinery GHG emissions by up to ~ 40 % relative to conventional refinery operations when considering carbon uptake in the supply chain of the bioblendstock. Refinery-wide marginal GHG abatement costs range from 120 to 3,600 USD2016/metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent avoided across the scenarios evaluated. Reducing the price of bioblendstocks is identified as a key to their adoption.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,BIOMASS FUELS,ENERGY P↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving E3SM Land Model Photosynthesis Parameterization via Satellite SIF, Machine Learning, and Surrogate Modeling

The parameterization of key photosynthesis parameters is one of the key uncertain sources in modeling ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP). Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) offers a good proxy for GPP since it marks the actual process of photosynthesis; while machine learning (ML) provides a robust approach to model the GPP-SIF relationship. Here, we trained the boosted regressing tree (BRT) and the Random Forest ML models with Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite SIF data and in situ GPP observations from 49 eddy covariance towers. These trained ML GPP-SIF models were fed into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) to generate ELM-simulated global SIF estimates, which were then benchmarked against satellite SIF observations with a surrogate modeling approach. Our results indicated good modeling performance of the ML-based GPP-SIF relationship. The ELM model when fed with the ML GPP-SIF models also can well predict the spatial-temporal variations in SIF. We also found high model accuracy for the surrogate modeling. Model parameter sensitivity analysis suggested that the fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (flnr) is the most sensitive parameter to the SIF; other sensitive parameters include the Ball-Berry stomatal conductance slope (mbbopt) and the vcmax entropy (vcmaxse). The posterior uncertainty in simulated GPP was greatly reduced after benchmarking, and the model produced improved spatial patterns of mean GPP relative to FLUXCOM GPP. Our integrated approach provides a new avenue for improving land models and using remote-sensing SIF, which can be further improved in the future with more ground- and satellite-based observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integration of proteomics and metabolomics into the Design, Build, Test, Learn cycle to improve 3-hydroxypropionic acid production in Aspergillus pseudoterreus

Biological engineering of microorganisms to produce value-added chemicals is a promising route to sustainable manufacturing. However, overproduction of metabolic intermediates at high titer, rate, and yield from inexpensive substrates is challenging in non-model systems where limited information is available regarding metabolic flux and its control in production conditions. Integrated multi-omic analyses of engineered strains offers an in-depth look at metabolites and proteins directly involved in growth and production of target and non-target bioproducts. Here we applied multi-omic analyses to overproduction of the polymer precursor 3-hydroxypropionic acid (3HP) in the filamentous fungus Aspergillus pseudoterreus. A synthetic pathway consisting of aspartate decarboxylase, beta-alanine pyruvate transaminase, and 3HP dehydrogenase was designed and built for A. pseudoterreus. Strains with single- and multi-copy integration events were isolated and multi-omics analysis consisting of intracellular and extracellular metabolomics and targeted and global proteomics was used to interrogate the strains in shake-flask and bioreactor conditions. Production of a variety of co-products (organic acids and glycerol) and oxidative degradation of 3HP were identified as metabolic pathways competing with 3HP production. Intracellular accumulation of nitrogen as 2,4-diaminobutanoate was identified as an off-target nitrogen sink that may also limit flux through the engineered 3HP pathway. Elimination of the high-expression oxidative 3HP degradation pathway by deletion of a putative malonate semialdehyde dehydrogenase improved the yield of 3HP by 3.4× after 10 days in shake-flask culture. This is the first report of 3HP production in a filamentous fungus amenable to industrial scale biomanufacturing of organic acids at high titer and low pH.

Pomraning, Kyle R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nitrate-To-Ammonia Electroconversion at Neutral pH on Polycrystalline Vanadium Sulfide Derived from Vanadium Disulfide

The electrochemical nitrate reduction reaction (NO3RR) offers a pathway to produce NH3 for fuel and fertilizer from waste NO3-. In this work, a polycrystalline vanadium sulfide (VSx), which is derived from solvothermally grown and annealed VS2, is shown to exhibit excellent NO3RR activity (2.3 +- 0.6 mg.cm-2 geo..h-1 @ -0.92 VRHE) and Faradaic efficiency to NH4+ (69 +- 6% at -0.69 VRHE) in buffered neutral pH electrolyte containing 0.1 M NO3-. A variety of characterization techniques are leveraged to support the VSx assignment, including X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy, selected area electron diffraction, and X-ray diffraction measurements. The VS2 annealing step reduces the oxide character and generates VSx, which, based on the improved NO3RR activity, results in the creation of active sites for NO3- binding. To help shed light on NO3RR on VSx, VS2 is used as a model system, and a grand-canonical density functional theory (GC-DFT) investigation of VS2 shows strong evidence that S vacancies are active sites for NO3RR, where NO3- outcompetes H+ for adsorption at the S-vacancy sites. Moreover, GC-DFT results highlight a thermodynamically favorable reaction to generate NH4+ in an aqueous electrolyte at relevant cathodic potentials. As an annealed material, VSx may contain undersaturated V sites, which show an electronic structure similar to the theoretically calculated S-vacancy site of VS2, and these sites may contribute to the observed increase in NO3RR activity and selectivity for NH4+ on VSx versus unannealed VS2. Finally, kinetic isotope effect measurements suggest that the kinetic rate-limiting step of the NO3RR on VSx is not proton-coupled, indicating it may be the first electron transfer to adsorbed NO3*.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

ConductorIdentification [SWR-21-58]

This is a novel data-driven model that can identify power system model impedance for local utilities. The model builds a multi-category logistic regression that is trained on local utility secondary system partial GIS data, and then the model can be used to predict the conductor types/impedance for the local utilities secondary models.

Wang, Wenbo↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Greening Future Elevates Flash Drought Risk in Northern Mid‐to‐High Latitudes

Flash droughts have become a growing concern, as they can emerge rapidly and increase the risk of crop failure. Although past studies have investigated the meteorological drivers and future changes of flash drought, why flash drought is more frequent over humid and vegetated regions remains underexplored. This study delves further into the mechanism by which vegetation regulates flash drought and its future change using observations from multiple data sets and large ensemble simulations from three Earth system models. On an interannual timescale, both observations and simulations show robust increases in flash drought frequency and a higher flash-to-sub-seasonal drought ratio during spring or antecedent conditions with dense vegetation, supporting the important role of vegetation in flash drought occurrence, especially in the northern mid-to-high latitudes. In the latter regions, the large ensemble simulations show robust increases in flash drought (e.g., 67% and 46% increases in Eastern U.S. and North Asia in 2050–2100 relative to 1950–2000 under the high emission scenario), where the growing season is lengthening. Although greening might suggest reduced drought stress, it drives precipitation-soil moisture-evapotranspiration decoupling by increasing evapotranspiration partitioning to transpiration. As transpiration can access deep soil water through the plant root system, its increased portion can weaken the constraints of concurrent precipitation on evapotranspiration, thus accelerating soil moisture depletion under high evaporative demand, driving a slow-to-rapid drought transition. How vegetation regulates flash drought by regulating surface moisture budget is supported by observations and simulations. Although warming supports early planting, agriculture may increasingly be threatened by surging flash drought risk.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2024

Updated sustainability status of cadmium telluride thin‐film photovoltaic systems and projections

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the up-to-date life-cycle sustainability status of cadmium-telluride based photovoltaic (PV) systems. Current production modules (Series 6 and Series 7) are analyzed in terms of their energy performance and environmental footprint and compared with the older series 4 module production and current single-crystalline Silicon (sc-Si) module production. For fixed-tilt systems with Series 6 modules operating under average US irradiation of 1800 kWh/m 2 /year, the global warming potential (GWP) is reduced from 16 g CO 2eq /kWh in Series 4 systems to 10 CO 2 eq /kWh in Series 6 systems. For operation in US-SW irradiation of 2300 kWh/m 2 /year, the GWP is reduced from 11 to 8 CO 2eq /kWh and for 1-axis tracking systems operating in Phoenix, Arizona, with point-of array irradiation of 3051 kWh/m 2 /year the GWP is reduced to 6.5 CO 2eq /kWh. Similar reductions have happened in all environmental indicators. Energy payback times (EPBT) of currently installed systems range from 0.6 years for fixed–tilt ground–mounted installations at average US irradiation at latitude tilt installations to 0.3 years for one-axis trackers at high US-SW irradiation, considering average fossil-fuel dominated electricity grids with fuel to electricity conversion efficiency of 0.3. The resulting energy return on energy investment (EROI) also depends on the conversion efficiency of the electricity grid and on the operation life expectance. For a 30-year operational life and grid conversion efficiency of 0.3, EROI ranges from 50 (at US average irradiation) to 70 for US-SW irradiation. The EROI declines with increased grid conversion efficiency; for CdTe PV operating in south California with grid conversion efficiency of 49%, the EROI is about 50 and is projected to fall to 30 when the state's 2030 target of 80% renewable energy penetration materializes. Material alternatives that show a potential of further reductions in degradation rates and materials for enhanced encapsulation that would enable longer operation lives have also been investigated. A degradation rate of 0.3%/year, which has been verified by accelerated testing, is assumed in 30-year scenarios; this is projected to be reduced to 0.2%/year in the near-term and potentially to 0.1%/year in the longer term. With such low degradation rates and enhanced edge-sealing, modules can last 40- to 50-years. Consequently, all impact indicators will be proportionally reduced while EROI will increase. This detailed LCA was conducted according to ISO standards and IEA PVPS Task 12 guidelines. Furthermore, the study revealed that the choices of system models, methods and temporal system boundaries can significantly impact the results and points out to the need to include assumptions regarding these choices in the “transparency in reporting” requirements listed in the IEA PVPS Task 12 Guidelines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application-specific optimal model weighting of global climate models: A red tide example

Global climate models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) provide many climate services with environmental relevance. The High Resolution Model Inter-comparison Project (HighResMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides model runs of GCMs and ESMs to address regional phenomena. Developing a parsimonious ensemble of CMIP6 requires multiple ensemble methods such as independent-model subset selection, prescreening-based subset selection, and model weighting. The work presented here focuses on application-specific optimal model weighting, with prescreening-based subset selection. As such, independent ensemble members are categorized, selected, and weighted based on their ability to reproduce physically-interpretable features of interest that are problem-specific. We discuss the strengths and caveats of optimal model weighting using a case study of red tide prediction in the Gulf of Mexico along the West Florida Shelf. Red tide is a common name of specific harmful algal blooms that occur worldwide, causing adverse socioeconomic and environmental impacts. Our results indicate the importance of prescreening-based subset selection as optimal model weighting can underplay robust ensemble members by optimizing error cancellation. Prescreening-based subset selection also provides insights about the validity of the model weights. By illustrating the caveats of using non-representative models when optimal model weighting is used, the findings and discussion of this study are pertinent to many other climate services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗