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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model: A Unified Tool from Local to Global Scales

We provide an introduction to a new high-resolution (0.25 degree) global composition forecast produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time forecasts of atmospheric composition at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km). Previously, this combination of detailed chemistry and resolution was only provided by regional models. This system combines the operational GEOS-5 weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 11) to provide detailed chemical analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The resolution of the forecasts is the highest resolution compared to current, publically-available global composition forecasts. Evaluation and validation of modeled trace gases and aerosols compared to surface and satellite observations will be presented for constituents relative to health air quality standards. Comparisons of modeled trace gases and aerosols against satellite observations show that the model produces realistic concentrations of atmospheric constituents in the free troposphere. Model comparisons against surface observations highlight the model's capability to capture the diurnal variability of air pollutants under a variety of meteorological conditions. The GEOS-5 composition forecasting system offers a new tool for scientists and the public health community, and is being developed jointly with several government and non-profit partners. Potential applications include air quality warnings, flight campaign planning and exposure studies using the archived analysis fields.

Knowland, E. Emma↗
NASA NTRS2002

Surface Composition of NiPd Alloys

Surface segregation in Ni-Pd alloys has been studied using the BFS method for alloys. Not only does the method predict an oscillatory segregation profile but it also indicates that the number of Pd-enriched surface planes can vary as a function of orientation. The segregation profiles were computed as a function of temperature, crystal face, and composition. Pd enrichment of the first layer is observed in (111) and (100) surfaces, and enrichment of the top two layers occurs for (110) surfaces. In all cases, the segregation profile shows oscillations that are actually related to weak ordering tendencies in the bulk. An atom-by-atom analysis was performed to identify the competing mechanisms leading to the observed surface behaviors. Large-scale atomistic simulations were also performed to investigate the temperature dependence of the segregation profiles as well as for analysis of the bulk structures. Finally, the observed surface behaviors are discussed in relation to the bulk phase structure of Ni-Pd alloys, which exhibit a tendency to weakly order.

Noebe, Ronald D.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Water Observations of Flow/No-Flow for the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado (June-July 2025 and 2026)

This dataset provides multi-year, ground-truth visual observations of surface water flow/no-flow conditions within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado, collected during June and July of 2025 and 2026. In June and July 2025, on-the-ground visual observations of flow/no-flow were collected as part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA) and Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL) Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) campaign (further details are provided within the CHESS Project Description). We obtained 377 water observations of flow/no-flow within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado. These ground-truth observations were collected to validate classification maps from remote sensing data and model results within the East-Taylor Watershed. In 2025, flow/no-flow measurements were collected using a field-based app for the CHESS Campaign (Zerion iForm). Within the field app, a water observation form was created to collect coordinates and metadata about the observation. Information collected for the water observation points included information about visually-assessed streamflow presence/absence (standard question obtained from Colorado State University’s StreamTracker project), flow estimate, stream or ponded area width, canopy cover, manganese films, iron seeps, and beaver activity. For 2025 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a data file with the water observations and coordinates (2025_Water_Observations.csv); (2) a Keyhole Markup Language Zipped (KMZ) with the water observation locations and metadata (2025_Water_Observations_Locations.kmz); (3) photos (.jpg and .jpeg) of the water observation points, organized by location, contained within 2025_Water_Observations_FieldPhotographs.zip file; and (4) water observation protocols and figures (2025_Water_Observation_Protocols.pdf). In June and July 2026, on-the-ground visual observations of flow/no-flow were collected as part of the Watershed Function SFA project. We obtained 365 water observations of flow/no-flow within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado. The 2026 observations focused on collecting repeat measurements at the 2025 flow/no-flow observation locations conducted as part of the CHESS campaign. These ground-truth observations were collected to understand differences in flow/no-flow in 2026, given the unprecedented 2026 drought in Colorado. In 2026, flow/no-flow measurements were collected using ArcGIS (Geographic Information System) Survey123. Within the field app, a water observation form was created to collect coordinates and metadata about the observation. Information collected for the water observation points included repeat information from the 2025 water observation effort, including visually-assessed streamflow presence/absence (standard question obtained from Colorado State University’s StreamTracker project), flow estimate, stream or ponded area width, canopy cover, manganese films, iron seeps, beaver activity, and a new metadata component of estimated stream depth (for select locations). For 2026 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a data file with the water observations and coordinates (2026_Water_Observations.csv); (2) a Keyhole Markup Language Zipped (KMZ) with the water observation locations and metadata (2026_Water_Observations_Locations.kmz); (3) photos (.jpg) of the water observation points, organized by location, contained within 2026_Water_Observations_FieldPhotographs.zip file; and (4) water observation protocols and figures (2026_Water_Observation_Protocols.pdf). For 2025 and 2026 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a location metadata file (locations.csv); (6) a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and (7) a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type. CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. 2026-09-02: This dataset was updated to include 2026 water observation measurements. The 2025 observation files were also updated to ensure a consistent file naming convention across water observation years.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗
NASA NTRS2011

Influence of Dust and Black Carbon on the Snow Albedo in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 Land Surface Model

Present-day land surface models rarely account for the influence of both black carbon and dust in the snow on the snow albedo. Snow impurities increase the absorption of incoming shortwave radiation (particularly in the visible bands), whereby they have major consequences for the evolution of snowmelt and life cycles of snowpack. A new parameterization of these snow impurities was included in the catchment-based land surface model used in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Earth Observing System version 5. Validation tests against in situ observed data were performed for the winter of 2003.2004 in Sapporo, Japan, for both the new snow albedo parameterization (which explicitly accounts for snow impurities) and the preexisting baseline albedo parameterization (which does not). Validation tests reveal that daily variations of snow depth and snow surface albedo are more realistically simulated with the new parameterization. Reasonable perturbations in the assigned snow impurity concentrations, as inferred from the observational data, produce significant changes in snowpack depth and radiative flux interactions. These findings illustrate the importance of parameterizing the influence of snow impurities on the snow surface albedo for proper simulation of the life cycle of snow cover.

Yasunari, Teppei J.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Ocean Warming: From the Surface to the Deep in Observations and Models

The ocean is the primary heat sink of the global climate system. Since 1971, it has been responsible for storing more than 90% of the excess heat added to the Earth system by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions. Adding this heat to the ocean contributes substantially to sea level rise and affects vital marine ecosystems. Considering the global ocean’s large role in ongoing climate variability and change, it is a good place to focus in order to understand what observed changes have occurred to date and, by using models, what future changes might arise under continued anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. While sparse measurement coverage leads to enhanced uncertainties with long-term historical estimates of change, modern measurements are beginning to provide the clearest picture yet of ongoing global ocean change. Observations show that the ocean is warming from the near-surface through to the abyss, a conclusion that is strengthened with each new analysis. In this assessment, we revisit here observation- and model-based estimates of ocean warming from the industrial era to the present and show a consistent, full-depth pattern of change over the observed record that is likely to continue at an ever-increasing pace if effective actions to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions are not taken.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Observation and elimination of broken symmetry in L1{sub 0} FePt nanostructures

An unexplained surface anisotropy effect was observed and confirmed in the magnetization reversal process of both L1{sub 0} phase FePt nanoparticles with octahedral shape and (001) textured L1{sub 0} FePt thin films with island nanostructures. We suggest that the nature of the observed surface effect is caused by broken symmetry on the FePt surface, which results in weakened exchange coupling for surface atoms. Furthermore, we propose, and experimentally demonstrate, a method to repair the broken symmetry by capping the FePt islands with a Pt layer, which could prove invaluable in understanding fundamental limitations of magnetic nanostructures.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2001

Constraints Pb-210 and Be-7 on Wet Deposition and Transport in a Global Three-Dimensional Chemical Tracer Model Driven by Assimilated Meteorological Fields

The atmospheric distributions of the aerosol tracers Pb-210 and Be-7 are simulated with a global three-dimensional model driven by assimilated meteorological observations for 1991-1996 from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOSl). The combination of terrigenic Pb-210 and cosmogenic Be-7 provides a sensitive test of wet deposition and vertical transport in the model. Our simulation of moist transport and removal includes scavenging in wet convective updrafts (40% scavenging efficiency per kilometer of updraft), midlevel entrainment and detrainment, first-order rainout and washout from both convective anvils and large-scale precipitation, and cirrus precipitation. Observations from surface sites in specific years are compared to model results for the corresponding meteorological years, and observations from aircraft missions over the Pacific are compared to model results for the days of the flights. Initial simulation of Be-7 showed that cross-tropopause transport in the GEOSl meteorological fields is too fast by a factor of 3-4. We adjusted the stratospheric Be-7 source to correct the tropospheric simulation. Including this correction, we find that the model gives a good simulation of observed Pb-210 and Be-7 concentrations and deposition fluxes at surface sites worldwide, with no significant global bias and with significant success in reproducing the observed latitudinal and seasonal distributions. We achieve several improvements over previous models; in particular, we reproduce the observed Be-7 minimum in the tropics and show that its simulation is sensitive to rainout from convective anvils. Comparisons with aircraft observations up to 12-km altitude suggest that cirrus precipitation could be important for explaining the low concentrations in the middle and upper troposphere.

Liu, Hong-Yu↗
NASA NTRS2023

Magnetic Anisotropy and Stress Dependent Epoxy Wetting in FeNi-based Metal Amorphous Nanocomposite

Recently developed FeNi-based metal amorphous nanocomposites (MANCs) used in high-speed motors (HSMs) exhibit reduced eddy current losses while maintaining good mechanical properties and glass-forming abilities. Magnetic anisotropy in (Fe 70 Ni 30 ) 80 Nb 4 B 14 Si 2 amorphous magnetic ribbon (AMR) in the as-cast state and upon conventional (T CA ) and strain (T SA ) annealing heat treatment is investigated. From ribbon samples in as-cast condition, quenched in stress from planar flow casting (PFC) induced as-cast curvature derived uniaxial magnetic anisotropy. Stress relief by conventional furnace annealing at T CA > 350 °C achieved isotropic properties in the bulk. Annealing about the primary crystallization temperature, T CA ~ 450 °C, resulted in the formation of both FCC and BCC nanocrystallites and evolution to isotropic bulk magnetic properties confirming the random anisotropy model. In samples strain annealed at T SA = 440 °C at various tensions, relatively large controlled induced uniaxial anisotropy is achieved. The largest magnetic anisotropy occurs in annealing under the stress of 250 MPa yielding an anisotropy field of 7.1 x 10 4 A/m. Surface anisotropy observed by MOKE differs from bulk anisotropy due to image contrast from closure domains. Epoxy coatings are important for improved bonding, mechanical properties, and resistivity in tape-wound MANC cores for HSMs. Using a sessile droplet method, the equilibrium contact angle of an epoxy droplet on a tensile stress annealed MANC exhibits stress dependent surface energies. Anisotropic wetting in FeNi-based MANC heat treated at T CA = 440 °C mimics surface magnetic anisotropy observed by MOKE.

soft magnetic materials↗
DOE OSTI2024

The surface chemistry of colloidal lead halide perovskite nanowires

This study explored the interplay between the ligand–surface chemistry of colloidal CsPbBr 3 nanowires (NWs) and their optical properties. The ligand equilibrium was probed using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and by perturbing the equilibrium via dilution, the gradual removal of ligands from the CsPbBr 3 surface was observed. This removal was correlated with an increase in the surface defect density, as suggested by a broadening of the photoluminescence (PL) spectrum, a decrease in the PL quantum yield (PLQY), and quenching of the PL decay. These results highlight similar surface binding between the traditional CsPbBr 3 quantum dots and our NWs, thereby expanding the scope of well-established ligand chemistry to a relatively unexplored nanocrystal morphology. In conclusion, by controlling the dilution factor, it was revealed that CsPbBr 3 NWs achieve a PLQY of 72% ± 2% and a relatively long average PL lifetime of 400 ± 10 ns, without relying on additional surface passivation techniques, such as ligand exchange.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the interactive stratospheric ozone (O3v2) module in the E3SM version 1 Earth system model

Stratospheric ozone affects climate directly as the predominant heat source in the stratosphere and indirectly through chemical reactions controlling other greenhouse gases. The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) implemented a new ozone chemistry module that improves the simulation of the sharp tropopause gradients, replacing a version based partly on long-term average climatologies that poorly represented heating rates in the lowermost stratosphere. The new O3v2 module extends seamlessly into the troposphere and preserves the naturally sharp cross-tropopause gradient, with 20 %–40 % less ozone in this region. Additionally, O3v2 enables the diagnosis of stratosphere–troposphere exchange flux of ozone, a key budget term lacking in E3SMv1. Here, we evaluate key features in ozone abundance and other closely related quantities in atmosphere-only E3SMv1 simulations driven by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs, years 1990–2014), comparing them with satellite observations of ozone and also with the University of California, Irvine chemistry transport model (UCI CTM) using the same stratospheric chemistry scheme but driven by European Centre forecast fields for the same period. In terms of stratospheric column ozone, O3v2 shows reduced mean bias and improved northern midlatitude variability, but it is not quite as good as the UCI CTM. As expected, SST-forced E3SMv1 simulations cannot synchronize with observed quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs), but they do show the typical QBO pattern seen in column ozone. This new O3v2 E3SMv1 model mostly retains the same climate state and climate sensitivity as the previous version, and we recommend its use for other climate models that still use ozone climatologies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

Development of a variational SEASAT data analysis technique

Oceans are data-sparse areas in terms of conventional weather observations. The surface pressure field obtained solely by analyzing the conventional weather data is not expected to possess high accuracy. On the other hand, in entering asynoptic data such as satellite-derived temperature soundings into an atmospheric prediction system, an improved surface analysis is crucial for obtaining more accurate weather predictions because the mass distribution of the entire atmosphere will be better represented in the system as a result of the more accurate surface pressure field. In order to obtain improved surface pressure analyses over the oceans, a variational adjustment technique was developed to help blend the densely distributed surface wind data derived from the SEASAT-A radar observations into the sparsely distributed conventional pressure data. A simple marine boundary layer scheme employed in the adjustment technique was discussed. In addition, a few aspects of the current technique were determined by numerical experiments.

Sasaki, Y. K.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Observations of the Earth in polarized light from the US Space Shuttle

During the four American Space Shuttle missions of year 1985, the crewmembers took pictures of the Earth in polarized light. Different problems were encountered in the quantitative use of the data: induced polarization by the shuttle window, lack of calibration correction of the window polarization and enveloped in flight calibration methods. The analysis of the selected data first confirmed the previous observation over snow and sand. A low polarization on these surfaces was observed. On the other hand, the measurements show the potentiability of the polarization for agricultural inventory. Contamination of the atmosphere is well characterized.

Roger, Jean-Claude↗
NASA NTRS1992

Rhenium in seawater - Confirmation of generally conservative behavior

A depth profile of the concentration of Re was measured in the Pacific Ocean using a technique developed for the clean chemical separation and the precise measurement of Re by isotope dilution and negative thermal ionization mass spectrometry (ID-NTIMS). We obtain a narrow range for Re from 7.20 +/- 0.03 to 7.38 +/- 0.03 ng/kg for depths between 45 m and 4700 m. This demonstrates that Re is relatively well mixed throughout the water column and confirms the theoretical prediction that the behavior of Re in the oceans is conservative. When examined in detail, both salinity and the concentration of Re increase by approximately 1.5 percent between 400 and 4700 m, a correlation consistent with conservative behavior. However, Re appears to be depleted relative to salinity by 1.0-1.5 percent at 100 m, and enriched by approximately 4 percent at the surface. These observations suggest a minor level of Re scavenging in near surface waters, and an input of Re to the ocean surface. This work demonstrates the utility of geochemical investigations of certain trace elements not previously been amenable to detailed study.

Anbar, A. D.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Investigations of vertical wind variations at a mountain top in the Himalaya using Doppler Lidar observations and model simulations

Hight-resolved observations of vertical winds remain nearly non-existing over the Himalayas, despite of an­ticipated crucial role of vertical motions in transporting pollution across the Himalayan hms. The present study analyze the vertical wind observations from surface to 1 km above ground level over Manora Peak (29.4° N; 79.5° E; 1958 m ams!) in the Himalaya performed using a Doppler Lidar during the Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX). Vertical wind exhibited a pronounced diurnal variability at Manora Peak comprising of upward motions during the daytime (05-10 UT) and downward motions during nighttime typical of a mountain­valley system. Mean vertical wind speeds are observed to be varying from -0.8 to +0.8 ms- 1 during the study period with a variance of 0.1-1.5 m2s·2, which is attributed to the thermally driven turbulence. Mean vertical winds are observed to be stronger in the Doppler Lidar profiles above Manora Peak (-0_8 to 0.8 ms- 1) as compared to near surface measurements at this station using an ultrasonic anemometer ( -0.4 to 0.4 ms - 1 ), and low altitude stations in India. Daytime vertical wind speeds are observed to be higher during pre-monsoon (0.81 ms- 1), as compared to post-monsoon (0.24 ms- 1) and winter (0.33 ms- 1)_ Average Black Carbon (BC) concentrations are significantly higher during strong upward vertical winds, which indicates efficient transport of polluted air mass from low-altitude regions to the Himalaya. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model reproduces the observed diurnal pattern in the vertical wind at the observation site however the model un­derestimates the variability.

Shukla, K K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detecting impacts of surface development near weather stations since 1895 in the San Joaquin Valley of California

Abstract Temperature readings observed at surface weather stations have been used for detecting changes in climate due to their long period of observations. The most common temperature metrics recorded are the daily maximum (TMax) and minimum (TMin) extremes. Unfortunately, influences besides background climate variations impact these measurements such as changes in (1) instruments, (2) location, (3) time of observation, and (4) the surrounding artifacts of human civilization (buildings, farms, streets, etc.) Quantifying (4) is difficult because the surrounding infrastructure, unique to each site, often changes slowly and variably and is thus resistant to general algorithms for adjustment. We explore a direct method of detecting this impact by comparing a single station that experienced significant development from 1895 to 2019, and especially since 1970, relative to several other stations with lesser degrees of such development (after adjustments for the (1) to (3) are applied). The target station is Fresno, California (metro population ~ 15,000 in 1900 and ~ 1 million in 2019) situated on the eastern side of the broad, flat San Joaquin Valley in which several other stations reside. A unique component of this study is the use of pentad (5-day averages) as the test metric. Results indicate that Fresno experienced + 0.4 °C decade −1 more nighttime warming (TMin) since 1970 than its neighbors—a time when population grew almost 300%. There was little difference seen in TMax trends between Fresno and non-Fresno stations since 1895 with TMax trends being near zero. A case is made for the use of TMax as the preferred climate metric relative to TMin for a variety of physical reasons. Additionally, temperatures measured at systematic times of the day (i.e., hourly) show promise as climate indicators as compared with TMax and especially TMin (and thus TAvg) due to several complicating factors involved with daily high and low measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Global Ocean Evaporation: How Well Can We Estimate Interannual to Decadal Variability?

Evaporation from the world's oceans constitutes the largest component of the global water balance. It is important not only as the ultimate source of moisture that is tied to the radiative processes determining Earth's energy balance but also to freshwater availability over land, governing habitability of the planet. Here we focus on variability of ocean evaporation on scales from interannual to decadal by appealing to three sources of data: the new MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications -2); climate models run with historical sea-surface temperatures, ice and atmospheric constituents (so-called AMIP experiments); and state-of-the-art satellite retrievals from the Seaflux and HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite) projects. Each of these sources has distinct advantages as well as drawbacks. MERRA-2, like other reanalyses, synthesizes evaporation estimates consistent with observationally constrained physical and dynamical models-but data stream discontinuities are a major problem for interpreting multi-decadal records. The climate models used in data assimilation can also be run with lesser constraints such as with SSTs and sea-ice (i.e. AMIPs) or with additional, minimal observations of surface pressure and marine observations that have longer and less fragmentary observational records. We use the new ERA-20C reanalysis produced by ECMWF embodying the latter methodology. Still, the model physics biases in climate models and the lack of a predicted surface energy balance are of concern. Satellite retrievals and comparisons to ship-based measurements offer the most observationally-based estimates, but sensor inter-calibration, algorithm retrieval assumptions, and short records are dominant issues. Our strategy depends on maximizing the advantages of these combined records. The primary diagnostic tool used here is an analysis of bulk aerodynamic computations produced by these sources and uses a first-order Taylor series analysis of wind speed, SST, near-surface stability and relative humidity variations around climatology to gauge the importance of these components. We find that the MERRA-2 evaporation record is strongly influenced by the availability of wind speed and humidity from passive microwave imagers beginning in the late 1980s as well as by the SST record. The trend over the period 1980 to present is nearly 10%. AMIP or the ERA-20C trends are much smaller. We find that ENSO-related signals involving both wind speed and thermodynamic variability remain the primary signal in the latter and are confirmed by satellite retrievals. We present uncertainty estimates based on the various data sources and discuss the implications for GEWEX water and energy budget science challenges.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long-term uncertainty quantification in WRF-modeled offshore wind resource off the US Atlantic coast

Uncertainty quantification of long-term modeled wind speed is essential to ensure stakeholders can best leverage wind resource numerical data sets. Offshore, this need is even stronger given the limited availability of observations of wind speed at heights relevant for wind energy purposes and the resulting heavier relative weight of numerical data sets for wind energy planning and operational projects. In this analysis, we consider the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 21-year updated numerical offshore data set for the US East Coast and provide a methodological framework to leverage both floating lidar and near-surface buoy observations in the region to quantify uncertainty in the modeled hub-height wind resource. We first show how using a numerical ensemble to quantify the uncertainty in modeled wind speed is insufficient to fully capture the model deviation from real-world observations. Next, we train and validate a random forest to vertically extrapolate near-surface wind speed to hub height using the available short-term lidar data sets in the region. We then apply this model to vertically extrapolate the long-term near-surface buoy wind speed observations to hub height so that they can be directly compared to the long-term numerical data set. We find that the mean 21-year uncertainty in 140 m hourly average wind speed is slightly lower than 3 m s -1 (roughly 30m% of the mean observed wind speed) across the considered region. Atmospheric stability is strictly connected to the modeled wind speed uncertainty, with stable conditions associated with an uncertainty which is, on average, about 20 % larger than the overall mean uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗