Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “statistical models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,081 records · Page 60
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

The Transfer Function Model as a Tool to Study and Describe Space Weather Phenomena

The Transfer Function Model (TFM) is a semi-analytical, linear model that is designed especially to describe thermospheric perturbations associated with magnetic storms and substorm. activity. It is a multi-constituent model (N2, O, He H, Ar) that accounts for wind induced diffusion, which significantly affects not only the composition and mass density but also the temperature and wind fields. Because the TFM adopts a semianalytic approach in which the geometry and temporal dependencies of the driving sources are removed through the use of height-integrated Green's functions, it provides physical insight into the essential properties of processes being considered, which are uncluttered by the accidental complexities that arise from particular source geometrie and time dependences. Extending from the ground to 700 km, the TFM eliminates spurious effects due to arbitrarily chosen boundary conditions. A database of transfer functions, computed only once, can be used to synthesize a wide range of spatial and temporal sources dependencies. The response synthesis can be performed quickly in real-time using only limited computing capabilities. These features make the TFM unique among global dynamical models. Given these desirable properties, a version of the TFM has been developed for personal computers (PC) using advanced platform-independent 3D visualization capabilities. We demonstrate the model capabilities with simulations for different auroral sources, including the response of ducted gravity waves modes that propagate around the globe. The thermospheric response is found to depend strongly on the spatial and temporal frequency spectra of the storm. Such varied behavior is difficult to describe in statistical empirical models. To improve the capability of space weather prediction, the TFM thus could be grafted naturally onto existing statistical models using data assimilation.

Porter, Hayden S.↗
NASA NTRS2001

NRLMSISE-00 Empirical Model of the Atmosphere: Statistical Comparisons and Scientific Issues

The new NRLMSISE-00 model and the associated NRLMSIS database now include the following data: (1) total mass density from satellite accelerometers and from orbit determination, including the Jacchia and Barlier data; (2) temperature from incoherent scatter radar, and; (3) molecular oxygen number density, [O2], from solar ultraviolet occultation aboard the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM). A new component, 'anomalous oxygen,' allows for appreciable O(+) and hot atomic oxygen contributions to the total mass density at high altitudes and applies primarily to drag estimation above 500 km. Extensive tables compare our entire database to the NRLMSISE-00, MSISE-90, and Jacchia-70 models for different altitude bands and levels of geomagnetic activity. We also investigate scientific issues related to the new data sets in the NRLMSIS database. Especially noteworthy is the solar activity dependence of the Jacchia data, with which we investigate a large O(+) contribution to the total mass density under the combination of summer, low solar activity, high latitudes, and high altitudes. Under these conditions, except at very low solar activity, the Jacchia data and the Jacchia-70 model indeed show a significantly higher total mass density than does MSISE-90. However, under the corresponding winter conditions, the MSIS-class models represent a noticeable improvement relative to Jacchia-70 over a wide range of F(sub 10.7). Considering the two regimes together, NRLMSISE-00 achieves an improvement over both MSISE-90 and Jacchia-70 by incorporating advantages of each.

Aikin, A. C.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Part 2: Forensic attribution profiling of Russian VX in food using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry

This work is part two of a three-part series in this issue of a Sweden-United States collaborative effort towards the understanding of the chemical attribution signatures of Russian VX (VR) in synthesized samples and complex food matrices. We describe the sourcing of VR present in food based on chemical analysis of attribution signatures by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) combined with multivariate data analysis. Analytical data was acquired from seven different foods spiked with VR batches that were synthesized via six different routes in two separate laboratories. The synthesis products were spiked at a lethal dose into seven food matrices: water, orange juice, apple purée, baby food, pea purée, liquid eggs and hot dog. After acetonitrile sample extraction, the samples were analyzed by LC-MS/MS operated in MRM mode. A multivariate statistical calibration model was built on the chemical attribution profiles from 118 VR spiked food samples. Using the model, an external test-set of the six synthesis routes employed for VR production was correctly identified with no observable major impact of the food matrices to the classification. The overall performance of the statistical models was found to be exceptional (94%) for the test set samples retrospectively classified to their synthesis routes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1977

'Chain pooling' model selection as developed for the statistical analysis of a rotor burst protection experiment

A statistical decision procedure called chain pooling had been developed for model selection in fitting the results of a two-level fixed-effects full or fractional factorial experiment not having replication. The basic strategy included the use of one nominal level of significance for a preliminary test and a second nominal level of significance for the final test. The subject has been reexamined from the point of view of using as many as three successive statistical model deletion procedures in fitting the results of a single experiment. The investigation consisted of random number studies intended to simulate the results of a proposed aircraft turbine-engine rotor-burst-protection experiment. As a conservative approach, population model coefficients were chosen to represent a saturated 2 to the 4th power experiment with a distribution of parameter values unfavorable to the decision procedures. Three model selection strategies were developed.

Holms, A. G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Full forward model of galaxy clustering statistics with AbacusSummit light cones

ABSTRACT Novel summary statistics beyond the standard 2-point correlation function (2PCF) are necessary to capture the full astrophysical and cosmological information from the small-scale (r < 30h−1Mpc) galaxy clustering. However, the analysis of beyond-2PCF statistics on small scales is challenging because we lack the appropriate treatment of observational systematics for arbitrary summary statistics of the galaxy field. In this paper, we develop a full forward modelling pipeline for a wide range of summary statistics using the large high-fidelity AbacusSummit light cones that account for many systematic effects as well as remain flexible and computationally efficient to enable posterior sampling. We apply our forward model approach to a fully realistic mock galaxy catalog and demonstrate that we can recover unbiased constraints on the underlying galaxy–halo connection model using two separate summary statistics: the standard 2PCF and the novel k-th nearest neighbour (kNN) statistics, which are sensitive to correlation functions of all orders. We will demonstrate its strong constraining power on extended galaxy–halo connection models and cosmology in follow up papers. We expect this to become a powerful approach when applying to upcoming surveys such as DESI where we can leverage a multitude of summary statistics across a wide redshift range to maximally extract information from the non-linear scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Parametric Studies of Flow Separation using Air Injection

Boundary Layer separation causes the airfoil to stall and therefore imposes dramatic performance degradation on the airfoil. In recent years, flow separation control has been one of the active research areas in the field of aerodynamics due to its promising performance improvements on the lifting device. These active flow separation control techniques include steady and unsteady air injection as well as suction on the airfoil surface etc. This paper will be focusing on the steady and unsteady air injection on the airfoil. Although wind tunnel experiments revealed that the performance improvements on the airfoil using injection techniques, the details of how the key variables such as air injection slot geometry and air injection angle etc impact the effectiveness of flow separation control via air injection has not been studied. A parametric study of both steady and unsteady air injection active flow control will be the main objective for this summer. For steady injection, the key variables include the slot geometry, orientation, spacing, air injection velocity as well as the injection angle. For unsteady injection, the injection frequency will also be investigated. Key metrics such as lift coefficient, drag coefficient, total pressure loss and total injection mass will be used to measure the effectiveness of the control technique. A design of experiments using the Box-Behnken Design is set up in order to determine how each of the variables affects each of the key metrics. Design of experiment is used so that the number of experimental runs will be at minimum and still be able to predict which variables are the key contributors to the responses. The experiments will then be conducted in the 1ft by 1ft wind tunnel according to the design of experiment settings. The data obtained from the experiments will be imported into JMP, statistical software, to generate sets of response surface equations which represent the statistical empirical model for each of the metrics as a function of the key variables. Next, the variables such as the slot geometry can be optimized using the build-in optimizer within JMP. Finally, a wind tunnel testing will be conducted using the optimized slot geometry and other key variables to verify the empirical statistical model. The long term goal for this effort is to assess the impacts of active flow control using air injection at system level as one of the task plan included in the NASAs URETI program with Georgia Institute of Technology.

Zhang, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2019

A comprehensive modeling procedure for estimating statistical properties of forced ignition

In this work, a comprehensive modeling procedure for estimating the probability of ignition with application to high altitude relights of aircraft combustors is developed. In these configurations, an ignitor is used to introduce high-enthalpy discharge into a fuel-laden but stratified flow. Because of the inherent variabilities inflow conditions, kernel discharge process, and the chaotic turbulent flow, ignition cannot be described deterministically, but only as a probabilistic measure. The proposed modeling framework consists of three components. The turbulent flow is represented using the large eddy simulation (LES) framework. The ignition process is modeled using a manifold approach, where the initial kernel evolution is represented using a homogeneous reactor while the latter part of the evolution is represented as a competition between diffusion and chemical reactions using a flamelet-type mapping. A combined lookup table that can track the evolution of the kernel through these two distinct reaction stages is developed. The table lookup variables are solved within the LES framework. The resulting simulation tool is then embedded within an uncertainty quantification approach, where variations in the turbulent flow, as well as operating and kernel properties, are simulated using a Monte-Carlo-based sampling approach. Techniques to reduce computational cost are used to obtain a robust, numerically accurate, and physically representative model for engine relight. The method is validated using experimental data for ignition of methane/air mixtures. Due to the comprehensive nature of the modeling procedure, it is found that the simulation tool reproduces experimentally observed ignition probabilities over a wide range of operating conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Spring Onset Predictability in the North American Multimodel Ensemble

Abstract The predictability of spring onset is assessed using an index of its interannual variability (the “extended spring index” or SI‐x) and output from the North American Multimodel Ensemble reforecast experiment. The input data to compute SI‐x were treated with a daily joint bias correction approach, and the SI‐x outputs computed from the North American Multimodel Ensemble were postprocessed using an ensemble model output statistic approach—nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression. This ensemble model output statistic approach was used to quantify the effects of training period length and ensemble size on forecast skill. The lead time for predicting the timing of spring onset is found to be from 10 to 60 days, with the higher end of this range located along a narrow band between 35°N to 45°N in the eastern United States. Using continuous rank probability scores and skill score (SS) thresholds, this study demonstrates that ranges of positive predictability of SI‐x fall into two categories: 10–40 and 40–60 days. Using higher skill thresholds (SS equal to 0.1 and 0.2), predictability is confined to a lower range with values around 10–30 days. The postprocessing work using joint bias correction improves the predictive skill for SI‐x relative to the untreated input data set. Using nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression, a positive change in the SS is noted in regions where the skill with joint bias correction shows evidence of improvement. These findings suggest that the start of spring might be predictable on intraseasonal time horizons, which in turn could be useful for farmers, growers, and stakeholders making decisions on these time scales.

Carrillo, Carlos M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical (n,$$\gamma $$) cross section model comparison for short-lived nuclei

Abstract Neutron-capture cross sections of neutron-rich nuclei are calculated using a Hauser–Feshbach model when direct experimental cross sections cannot be obtained. A number of codes to perform these calculations exist, and each makes different assumptions about the underlying nuclear physics. We investigated the systematic uncertainty associated with the choice of Hauser-Feshbach code used to calculate the neutron-capture cross section of a short-lived nucleus. The neutron-capture cross section for $$^{73}\hbox {Zn}$$ 73 Zn (n, $$\gamma $$ γ ) $$^{74}\hbox {Zn}$$ 74 Zn was calculated using three Hauser-Feshbach statistical model codes: TALYS, CoH, and EMPIRE. The calculation was first performed without any changes to the default settings in each code. Then an experimentally obtained nuclear level density (NLD) and $$\gamma $$ γ -ray strength function ( $$\gamma \hbox {SF}$$ γ SF ) were included. Finally, the nuclear structure information was made consistent across the codes. The neutron-capture cross sections obtained from the three codes are in good agreement after including the experimentally obtained NLD and $$\gamma \hbox {SF}$$ γ SF , accounting for differences in the underlying nuclear reaction models, and enforcing consistent approximations for unknown nuclear data. It is possible to use consistent inputs and nuclear physics to reduce the differences in the calculated neutron-capture cross section from different Hauser-Feshbach codes. However, ensuring the treatment of the input of experimental data and other nuclear physics are similar across multiple codes requires a careful investigation. For this reason, more complete documentation of the inputs and physics chosen is important.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1984

Slant path rain attenuation and path diversity statistics obtained through radar modeling of rain structure

Single and joint terminal slant path attenuation statistics at frequencies of 28.56 and 19.04 GHz have been derived, employing a radar data base obtained over a three-year period at Wallops Island, VA. Statistics were independently obtained for path elevation angles of 20, 45, and 90 deg for purposes of examining how elevation angles influences both single-terminal and joint probability distributions. Both diversity gains and autocorrelation function dependence on site spacing and elevation angles were determined employing the radar modeling results. Comparisons with other investigators are presented. An independent path elevation angle prediction technique was developed and demonstrated to fit well with the radar-derived single and joint terminal radar-derived cumulative fade distributions at various elevation angles.

Goldhirsh, J.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling

The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

Gross, D.↗
NASA NTRS1982

A two-component rain model for the prediction of attenuation statistics

A two-component rain model has been developed for calculating attenuation statistics. In contrast to most other attenuation prediction models, the two-component model calculates the occurrence probability for volume cells or debris attenuation events. The model performed significantly better than the International Radio Consultative Committee model when used for predictions on earth-satellite paths. It is expected that the model will have applications in modeling the joint statistics required for space diversity system design, the statistics of interference due to rain scatter at attenuating frequencies, and the duration statistics for attenuation events.

Crane, R. K.↗
DOE OSTI2024

National Climate Database (NCDB)

The National Climate Database (NCDB) is a high resolution, bias-corrected climate dataset consisting of the three most widely used variables of solar radiation- global horizontal (GHI), direct normal (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI)- as well as other meteorological data. The goal of the NCDB is to provide unbiased high temporal and spatial resolution climate data needed for renewable energy modeling. The NCDB is modeled using a statistical downscaling approach with Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based climate projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX; linked below). Daily climate projections simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model 4 (CanRCM4) forced by the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 or moderate emissions scenario and RCP8.5 or highest baseline emission scenario) are selected as inputs to the statistical downscaling models. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to build and calibrate statistical models.

Array↗
NASA NTRS2007

Bootstrap data methodology for sequential hybrid model building

A method for modeling engine operation comprising the steps of: 1. collecting a first plurality of sensory data, 2. partitioning a flight envelope into a plurality of sub-regions, 3. assigning the first plurality of sensory data into the plurality of sub-regions, 4. generating an empirical model of at least one of the plurality of sub-regions, 5. generating a statistical summary model for at least one of the plurality of sub-regions, 6. collecting an additional plurality of sensory data, 7. partitioning the second plurality of sensory data into the plurality of sub-regions, 8. generating a plurality of pseudo-data using the empirical model, and 9. concatenating the plurality of pseudo-data and the additional plurality of sensory data to generate an updated empirical model and an updated statistical summary model for at least one of the plurality of sub-regions.

Volponi, Allan J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic-learning-based stochastic surrogate model from small incomplete datasets for nonlinear dynamical systems

We consider a high-dimensional nonlinear computational model of a dynamical system, parameterized by a vector-valued control parameter, in the presence of uncertainties represented by an uncontrolled parameter modeled by a vector-valued random variable, and possibly with stochastic excitation. The objective is to construct a statistical surrogate model where the input is any deterministic value of the control parameter, and the output is a vector-valued observation of the computational model, which is a random vector whose probability measure is updated using a target dataset. To construct this statistical surrogate model, the stochastic response of the computational model must be built, which is a vector-valued time-discretized stochastic process in high dimension, depending on the control parameter. It is assumed that the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is high. For the probabilistic updating, we consider a subset of the components of the observation of the computational model, defined as the “identification observation” of the computational model, for which a small target dataset is available. Therefore, the target dataset is associated with partial observability, corresponding to an incomplete data case. Given a prior probability model of the random control and uncontrolled parameters, a training dataset is constructed, consisting of realizations of the random triplet composed of the stochastic response, the random identification observation, and the random control parameter. Since the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is assumed to be large, the training dataset is also of small size. The main challenges in this problem are the high dimensionality, partial observability leading to incomplete data in the target dataset for the identification observation of the computational model (which is not sufficient to identify the computational stochastic responses), and the availability of a small training dataset. To address these challenges, we propose a methodology based on statistical methods for constructing necessary reduced representations, direct probabilistic learning under constraints using probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) constrained by the target dataset, and the use of a weak formulation of the Fourier transform of probability measures. Statistical conditioning is also employed to explore the learned dataset. The constructed predictive statistical surrogate model can be implemented in the context of online computation. Here, we apply this approach to a problem of nonlinear stochastic dynamics in high dimensions within the framework of deformable solids mechanics.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Remote Sensing Technique to Upscale Methane Emission Flux in a Subtropical Peatland

Abstract Quantification of methane (CH 4 ) gas emission from peat is critical to understand CH 4 budget from natural wetlands under a climate warming scenario. Previous studies have focused on prediction and mapping of CH 4 emission flux using process‐based models, while application of statistical‐empirical models for upscaling spatially sparse in situ measurements is scarce. In this study, we developed an empirical remote sensing upscaling approach to estimate CH 4 emission flux in the Everglades using limited in situ point‐based CH 4 emission flux measurements and Landsat data during 2013–2018. We spatially and temporally linked in situ data with Landsat surface reflectance based on temporally composite data sets and developed an object‐based machine learning framework to model and map CH 4 emission flux. An ensemble analysis of two machine learning models, k ‐Nearest Neighbor ( k ‐NN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), shows that the upscaling approach is promising for predicting CH 4 emission flux with a R 2 of 0.65 and 0.87 based on a fivefold cross‐validation for a dry season and wet season estimation, respectively. We generated emission flux map products that successfully revealed the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of CH 4 emission within the dominant freshwater marsh ecosystem in the Everglades. We conclude that Landsat is promising for upscaling and monitoring CH 4 emission flux and reducing the uncertainty in emission estimates from wetlands.

Zhang, Caiyun↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards absolutely stable ergodicity breaking in two and three dimensions

We propose physically reasonable systems capable of avoiding ergodicity at infinite time in the thermodynamic limit, even with generic perturbations and when coupled to a heat bath. In two dimensions, the rainbow loop soup has (stretched) exponentially numerous absolutely stable nonergodic states with diverging energy but vanishing energy density. In three dimensions the rainbow membrane soup has (stretched) exponentially numerous nonergodic states with diverging energy barriers, leading to infinite-time robust ergodicity breaking that even survives coupling to a nonzero temperature heat bath. We describe our results in the language of exact emergent symmetries and demonstrate how the systems avoid common instabilities. Furthermore, our construction naturally connects to quantum dimer models, topologically ordered systems, the group word construction, and Hamiltonians whose low-energy eigenstates exhibit anomalous entanglement entropy.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Framework for phase transitions between the Maxwell and Gibbs constructions

By taking the nucleon-to-quark phase transition within a neutron star as an example, we present a thermodynamically consistent method to calculate the equation of state of ambient matter so that transitions that are intermediate to those of the familiar Maxwell and Gibbs constructions can be described. This method does not address the poorly known surface tension between the two phases microscopically (as, for example, in the calculation of the core pasta phases via the Wigner-Seitz approximation) but instead combines the local and global charge neutrality conditions characteristic of the Maxwell and Gibbs constructions, respectively. Overall charge neutrality is achieved by dividing the leptons to those that obey local charge neutrality (Maxwell) and those that maintain global charge neutrality (Gibbs). The equation of state is obtained by using equilibrium constraints derived from minimizing the total energy density. The results of this minimization are then used to calculate neutron star mass-radius curves, tidal deformabilities, equilibrium and adiabatic sound speeds, and nonradial g-mode oscillation frequencies for several intermediate constructions. Various quantities of interest transform smoothly from their Gibbs structures to those of Maxwell as the local-to-total electron ratio η, introduced to mimic the hadron-to-quark interface tension from 0 (Gibbs) to ∞ (Maxwell), is raised from 0 to 1. As a result, a notable exception is the g-mode frequency for the specific case of η = 1 for which a gap appears between the quark and hadronic branches.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗