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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Building a Community Infrastructure for Scalable On-Line Performance Analysis Tools around Open|SpeedShop

In this project we created a community tool infrastructure for program development tools targeting Petascale class machines and beyond. This includes tools for performance analysis, debugging, and correctness tools, as well as tuning and optimization frameworks. The developed infrastructure provides a comprehensive and extensible set of individual tool building components. We started with the basic elements necessary across all tools in such an infrastructure followed by a set of generic core modules that allow a comprehensive performance analysis at scale. Further, we developed a methodology and workflow that allows others to add or replace modules, to integrate parts into their own tools, or to customize existing solutions. In order to form the core modules, we built on the existing Open|SpeedShop infrastructure and decomposed it into individual modules that match the necessary tool components. At the same time, we addressed the challenges found in performance tools for petascale systems in each module. When assembled, this instantiation of community tool infrastructure provides an enhanced version of Open|SpeedShop, which, while completely different in its architecture, provides scalable performance analysis for petascale applications through a familiar interface. This project also built upon and enhances capabilities and reusability of project partner components as specified in the original project proposal. The overall project team’s work over the project funding cycle was focused on several areas of research, which are described in the following sections. The reminder of this report also highlights related work as well as preliminary work that supported the project. In addition to the project partners funded by the Office of Science under this grant, the project team included several collaborators who contribute to the overall design of the envisioned tool infrastructure. In particular, the project team worked closely with the other two DOE NNSA laboratories Los Alamos and Sandia leveraging co-funding for Krell by ASC’s Common Computing Environment (CCE) program as laid out in the original proposal. The ASC CCE co-funding, coordinated through LLNL, was for 50% of the total project funding, with the ASC CCE portion of the funding going entirely to Krell, while the ASCR funding itself was split between Krell and the funded partners. This report covers the entire project from both funding sources. Additionally, the team leveraged the expertise of software engineering researchers from Carnegie Mellon University, who specialize in software framework design, in order to achieve a broadly acceptable component framework. The Component Based Tool Framework (CBTF) software has been released to the community. Information related to the project and the released software can be found on the CBTF wiki page at: http://sourceforge.net/p/cbtf/wiki/Home.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

SHARP pre-release v1.0 - Current Status and Documentation

The NEAMS Reactor Product Line effort aims to develop an integrated multiphysics simulation capability for the design and analysis of future generations of nuclear power plants. The Reactor Product Line code suite’s multi-resolution hierarchy is being designed to ultimately span the full range of length and time scales present in relevant reactor design and safety analyses, as well as scale from desktop to petaflop computing platforms. In this report, building on a several previous report issued in September 2014, we describe our continued efforts to integrate thermal/hydraulics, neutronics, and structural mechanics modeling codes to perform coupled analysis of a representative fast sodium-cooled reactor core in preparation for a unified release of the toolkit. The work reported in the current document covers the software engineering aspects of managing the entire stack of components in the SHARP toolkit and the continuous integration efforts ongoing to prepare a release candidate for interested reactor analysis users. Here we report on the continued integration effort of PROTEUS/Nek5000 and Diablo into the NEAMS framework and the software processes that enable users to utilize the capabilities without losing scientific productivity. Due to the complexity of the individual modules and their necessary/optional dependency library chain, we focus on the configuration and build aspects for the SHARP toolkit, which includes capability to autodownload dependencies and configure/install with optimal flags in an architecture-aware fashion. Such complexity is untenable without strong software engineering processes such as source management, source control, change reviews, unit tests, integration tests and continuous test suites. Details on these processes are provided in the report as a building step for a SHARP user guide that will accompany the first release, expected by Mar 2016.

Mahadevan, Vijay S.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Sorption Modeling and Verification for Off-Gas Treatment

This project was successfully executed to provide valuable adsorption data and improve a comprehensive model developed in previous work by the authors. Data obtained were used in an integrated computer program to predict the behavior of adsorption columns. The model is supported by experimental data and has been shown to predict capture of off gas similar to that evolving during the reprocessing of nuclear waste. The computer program structure contains (a) equilibrium models of off-gases with the adsorbate; (b) mass-transfer models to describe off-gas mass transfer to a particle, diffusion through the pores of the particle, and adsorption on the active sites of the particle; and (c) incorporation of these models into fixed bed adsorption modeling, which includes advection through the bed. These models are being connected with the MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) software developed at the Idaho National Laboratory through DGOSPREY (Discontinuous Galerkin Off-gas SeParation and REcoverY) computer codes developed in this project. Experiments for iodine and water adsorption have been conducted on reduced silver mordenite (Ag0Z) for single layered particles. Adsorption apparatuses have been constructed to execute these experiments over a useful range of conditions for temperatures ranging from ambient to 250°C and water dew points ranging from -69 to 19°C. Experimental results were analyzed to determine mass transfer and diffusion of these gases into the particles and to determine which models best describe the single and binary component mass transfer and diffusion processes. The experimental results were also used to demonstrate the capabilities of the comprehensive models developed to predict single-particle adsorption and transients of the adsorption-desorption processes in fixed beds. Models for adsorption and mass transfer have been developed to mathematically describe adsorption kinetics and transport via diffusion and advection processes. These models were built on a numerical framework for solving conservation law problems in one-dimensional geometries such as spheres, cylinders, and lines. Coupled with the framework are specific models for adsorption in commercial adsorbents, such as zeolites and mordenites. Utilizing this modeling approach, the authors were able to accurately describe and predict adsorption kinetic data obtained from experiments at a variety of different temperatures and gas phase concentrations. A demonstration of how these models, and framework, can be used to simulate adsorption in fixed- bed columns is provided. The CO 2 absorption work involved modeling with supportive experimental information. A dynamic model was developed to simulate CO 2 absorption using high alkaline content water solutions. The model is based upon transient mass and energy balances for chemical species commonly present in CO 2 absorption. A computer code was developed to implement CO 2 absorption with a chemical reaction model. Experiments were conducted in a laboratory scale column to determine the model parameters. The influence of geometric parameters and operating variables on CO 2 absorption was studied over a wide range of conditions. Continuing work could employ the model to control column operation and predict the absorption behavior under various input conditions and other prescribed experimental perturbations. The value of the validated models and numerical frameworks developed in this project is that they can be used to predict the sorption behavior of off-gas evolved during the reprocessing of nuclear waste and thus reduce the cost of the experiments. They can also be used to design sorption processes based on concentration limits and flow-rates determined at the plant level.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

High Throughput Computational Framework of Materials Properties for Extreme Environments

This project aims to establish a framework capable of efficiently predicting the properties of structural materials for service in harsh environments over a wide range of temperatures and over long periods of time. The approach is to develop and integrate high throughput first-principles calculations in combination with machine learning (ML) methods, perform high throughput CALPHAD (calculations of phase diagrams) modeling, and carry out finite element method (FEM) simulations. Relevant to high temperature service in fossil power system, nickel-based superalloys such as Inconel 740 and Haynes 282 as well as the associated (Ni-Cr-Co)-Al-C-Fe-Mn-Mo-Nb-Si-Ti system, were investigated. The present framework was built on the concept of phase-based property data, in which properties of individual phases are modeled as a function of internal and external independent variables. This project established an open-source infrastructure with the following capabilities: (1) High throughput implementation of first-principles calculations at finite temperatures and variable compositions using both accurate phonon calculations and the efficient Debye model for thermodynamic properties, elastic constants, diffusion coefficients, vacancy formation, stacking and twin faults, and dislocation mobility; i.e., using the developed code DFTTK; (2) Machine learning capabilities to predict the above properties so that the number of first-principles calculations can be significantly reduced; e.g., using the developed code SIPFENN; (3) High throughput CALPHAD modeling of the above properties as a function of temperature and composition using our unique capability based on ESPEI and PyCalphad; (4) New capabilities to predict the stress-strain behavior of individual phases; and (5) New models for tensile strength prediction in common FEM software with the crystal plasticity finite element simulations (CPFEM).

, Ni-based superalloys↗
DOE OSTI2021

A general approach to seismic inversion with automatic differentiation

Imaging Earth structure or seismic sources from seismic data involves minimizing a target misfit function, and is commonly solved through gradient-based optimization. The adjoint-state method has been developed to compute the gradient efficiently; however, its implementation can be time-consuming and difficult. We develop a general seismic inversion framework to calculate gradients using reverse-mode automatic differentiation. The central idea is that adjoint-state methods and reverse-mode automatic differentiation are mathematically equivalent. Here, the mapping between numerical PDE simulation and deep learning allows us to build a seismic inverse modeling library, ADSeismic, based on deep learning frameworks, which supports high performance reverse-mode automatic differentiation on CPUs and GPUs. We demonstrate the performance of ADSeismic on inverse problems related to velocity model estimation, rupture imaging, earthquake location, and source time function retrieval. ADSeismic has the potential to solve a wide variety of inverse modeling applications within a unified framework.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

SHAD: the Scalable High-performance Algorithms and Data-structures Library

The unprecedented amount of data that needs to be processed in emerging data analytics applications poses novel challenges to industry and academia. Scalability and high performance become more than a desirable feature because, due to the scale and the nature of the problems, they draw the line between what is achievable and what is unfeasible. In this paper, we propose SHAD, the Scalable High-performance Algorithms and Data-structures library. SHAD adopts a modular design that confines low level details and promotes reuse. SHAD's core is built on an Abstract Runtime Interface which enhances portability and identifies the minimal set of features of the underlying system required by the framework. The core library includes common data-structures such as: Array, Vector, Map and Set. These are designed to accommodate significant amount of data which can be accessed in massively parallel environments, and used as building blocks for SHAD extensions, i.e. higher level software libraries. We have validated and evaluated our design with a performance and scalability study of the core components of the library. We have validated the design flexibility by proposing a Graph Library as an example of SHAD extension, which implements two different graph data-structures; we evaluate their performance with a set of graph applications. Experimental results show that the approach is promising in terms of both performance and scalability. On a distributed system with 320 cores, SHAD Arrays are able to sustain a throughput of 65 billion operations per second, while SHAD Maps sustain 1 billion of operations per second. Algorithms implemented using the Graph Library exhibit performance and scalability comparable to a custom solution, but with smaller development effort.

Castellana, Vito G.↗
DOE OSTI2020

5G Enabled Energy Innovation: Advanced Wireless Networks for Science (Workshop Report)

Rapidly expanding, new telecommunications infrastructure based on 5G technologies will disrupt and transform how we design, build, operate, and optimize scientific infrastructure and the experiments and services enabled by that infrastructure, from continental-scale sensor networks to centralized scientific user facilities, from intelligent Internet of Things devices to supercomputers. Concurrently, 5G will introduce, or exacerbate, challenges related to protecting infrastructure and associated scientific data as well as to fully leveraging opportunities related to expanded infrastructure scale and complexity. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science operates scientific infrastructure, supporting some of the nation’s most advanced intellectual discoveries, spanning the country and including 30 world-class user facilities from supercomputers to accelerators. Along with field experiments and remote observatories, every aspect of DOE’s scientific enterprise will be affected by 5G, which amounts to a complete renovation of the underpinnings of the nation’s information infrastructure. In this report we explore the scientific opportunities and new research challenges associated with 5G, ranging from scalability to heterogeneity to cybersecurity. The rapid commercial deployment of 5G opens the opportunity to rethink and reinvent DOE’s scientific infrastructure and experimentation, from intelligent sensor networks at unprecedented scales to a digital continuum of cyberinfrastructure spanning low-power sensors, high-performance computing embedded within and at the edge of the network, and DOE’s large-scale user instrument and computing facilities. New programming paradigms, workflow and data frameworks, and AI-based system design, operation, and autonomous adaptation and optimization will be necessary in order to exploit these new opportunities. Field deployments and centralized scientific instruments can also be revolutionized, moving (without traditional performance penalties) from wired to wireless connectivity for data and control systems, improving flexibility, and opening new sensing modalities, including the use of the 5G electromagnetic spectrum itself as an environmental probe. For DOE science, in contrast to commercial 5G applications and settings, devices will be deployed in extreme environments such as cryogenically cooled instrument control systems and in remote settings with harsh conditions, requiring the design of new materials for RF communication and edge processing to operate in these regimes. Concurrently, 5G infrastructure comprises both hardware and sophisticated software systems - currently closed and proprietary. The cybersecurity challenges to 5G-empowered reinvention mirror the complexity and variety of new 5G features, from virtualization to private network slices to ubiquitous access. Research is also needed in order to accelerate the development of secure and open 5G software infrastructure, reducing reliance on hardware and software produced outside the United States and providing the transparency and rigorous evaluation and testing afforded through open software. Twelve broad research thrusts are laid out in four chapters, with a companion fifth chapter (and three additional research thrusts) underscoring the needs and opportunities for an aggressive testbed program co-designed by networking experts and scientists involved in the 15 research thrusts. The urgency of undertaking this research is fueled by a global, accelerating deployment of new telecommunications infrastructure that is designed for entertainment and commercial applications - barely scratching the surface of what 5G can do to extend U.S. leadership in scientific discovery.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-time control of connected vehicles in signalized corridors using pseudospectral convex optimization

Recent advances in Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) technologies have opened up new opportunities to enable safe, efficient, and sustainable transportation systems. However, developing reliable and rapid speed control algorithms in highly dynamic environments with complex inter-vehicle interactions and nonlinear vehicle dynamics is still a daunting task. In this paper, we develop a novel speed control method for CAVs to produce optimal speed profiles that minimize the fuel consumption and avoid idling at signalized intersections. To this end, an optimal control problem is formulated using the information of the upcoming traffic signal to adapt vehicles' speeds to avoid frequent stop-and-go driving patterns. Here, by applying the pseudospectral discretization method and the sequential convex programming method, the computational efficiency is greatly improved, enabling potential real-time on-vehicle applications. In addition, the algorithm is implemented under a model predictive control framework to ensure online control with instant response for collision avoidance and robust vehicle coordination. The proposed algorithm is verified through numerical simulations of three different traffic scenarios. The convergence and accuracy of the proposed approach are demonstrated by comparing with a popular nonlinear solver. Furthermore, the benefit of the proposed method in both traffic mobility and fuel efficiency is validated using the speed profile determined from a traffic following model in a simulation software as the baseline.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Utilizing the SACADA system to collect simulator training data to inform human reliability analyses - 169

Lack of appropriate human performance data for the development of human reliability analysis (HRA) methods has been identified as a key issue contributing to the method-to-method variability among the HRA methods. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) worked with domain experts to develop the Scenario Authoring, Characterization, and Debriefing Application (SACADA) system to collect nuclear power plants' licensed operator simulator training and examination data to inform HRA. In the past two decades, significant improvements in understanding and modelling human performance in HRA have affected the perspectives of the types of data to be collected for HRA. A significant change is that human performance is strongly dependent on the context of the tasks to be performed. To incorporate this understanding, the SACADA data taxonomy collects the context and actual performance information of the training objective elements (TOEs) in nuclear plant operator simulator training. This provides a framework consistent with HRA to use context to estimate human error probabilities. It is recognized that measuring crew performance is equally important as improving operator training. SACADA is designed to support the nuclear trainers in capturing this important information that is used to identify training weaknesses and drive continuous improvement. This paper discusses the SACADA taxonomy, the SACADA system's functions, and the supporting software design to enable the SACADA system to be practically implemented in the nuclear power plants' operator simulator training program to collect data for tracking operator performance and HRA analysis. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Prototyping and validating requirements of radiation and nuclear emergency plan simulator

Organizational incapability in developing unrealistic, impractical, inadequate and ambiguous mechanisms of radiological and nuclear emergency preparedness and response plan (EPR) causing emergency plan disorder and severe disasters. These situations resulting from 65.6% of poor definition and unidentified roles and duties of the disaster coordinator. Those unexpected conditions brought huge aftermath to the first responders, operators, workers, patients and community at large. Hence, in this report, we discuss prototyping and validating of Malaysia radiation and nuclear emergency preparedness and response plan simulation model (EPRM). A prototyping technique was required to formalize the simulation model requirements. Prototyping as systems requirements validation was carried on to endorse the correctness of the model itself against the stakeholder’s intensions in resolving those organizational incapability. We have made assumptions for the proposed emergency preparedness and response model (EPRM) through the simulation software. Those assumptions provided a twofold of expected mechanisms, planning and handling of the respective emergency plan as well as in bringing off the hazard involved. This model called RANEPF (Radiation and Nuclear Emergency Planning Framework) simulator demonstrated the training emergency response perquisites rather than the intervention principles alone. The demonstrations involved the determination of the casualties’ absorbed dose range screening and the coordination of the capacity planning of the expected trauma triage. Through user-centred design and sociotechnical approach, RANEPF simulator was strategized and simplified, though certainly it is equally complex.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Basin Assessment Spatial Planning Platform

The tool is intended to facilitate hydropower development and water resource planning by improving synthesis and interpretation of disparate spatial datasets that are considered in development actions (e.g., hydrological characteristics, environmentally and culturally sensitive areas, existing or proposed water power resources, climate-informed forecasts). The tool enables this capability by providing a unique framework for assimilating, relating, summarizing, and visualizing disparate spatial data through the use of spatial aggregation techniques, relational geodatabase platforms, and an interactive web-based Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Data are aggregated and related based on shared intersections with a common spatial unit; in this case, industry-standard hydrologic drainage areas for the U.S. (National Hydrography Dataset) are used as the spatial unit to associate planning data. This process is performed using all available scalar delineations of drainage areas (i.e., region, sub-region, basin, sub-basin, watershed, sub-watershed, catchment) to create spatially hierarchical relationships among planning data and drainages. These entity-relationships are stored in a relational geodatabase that provides back-end structure to the web GIS and its widgets. The full technology stack was built using all open-source software in modern programming languages. Interactive widgets that function within the viewport are also compatible with all modern browsers.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2023

Autonomy Loops for Monitoring, Operational Data Analytics, Feedback, and Response in HPC Operations

Many High Performance Computing (HPC) facilities have developed and deployed frameworks in support of continuous monitoring and operational data analytics (MODA) to help improve efficiency and throughput. Because of the complexity and scale of systems and workflows and the need for low-latency response to address dynamic circumstances, automated feedback and response have the potential to be more effective than current human-in-the-loop approaches which are laborious and error prone. Progress has been limited, however, by factors such as the lack of infrastructure and feedback hooks, and successful deployment is often site- and case-specific. In this position paper we report on the outcomes and plans from a recent Dagstuhl Seminar, seeking to carve a path for community progress in the development of autonomous feedback loops for MODA, based on the established formalism of similar (MAPE-K) loops in autonomous computing and self-adaptive systems. By defining and developing such loops for significant cases experienced across HPC sites, we seek to extract commonalities and develop conventions that will facilitate interoperability and interchangeability with system hardware, software, and applications across different sites, and will motivate vendors and others to provide telemetry interfaces and feedback hooks to enable community development and pervasive deployment of MODA autonomy loops.

autonomy loops↗
DOE OSTI2023

Verification Testing of OLI Systems Mixed Solvent Electrolyte Model for the Na-K-Mg-Ca-H-Cl-SO 4 -OH-HCO 3 -CO 3 -CO 2 -H 2 ) System to High Ionic Strength at 25°C

This technical report summarizes model verification results and summary statistics for 41 evaporite mineral solubility cases evaluated by Savannah River National Laboratory using OLI Systems’ aqueous electrolyte thermodynamic modeling software. The 41 verification cases containing a total of 60 solubility curves comprise mineral solubility data from low to high ionic strength at 25°C for the eight-component system Na-K-Mg-Ca-H-Cl-SO 4 -OH-HCO 3 -CO 3 -CO 2 -H 2 O as reported by Harvie et al. (1984). Thermodynamic calculations were executed using OLI Systems’ Stream Analyzer computation module within the OLI Studio software platform (Ver. 11.0, Rev. 11.0.1.9). The Mixed Solvent Electrolyte (MSE) thermodynamic framework was chosen for this investigation because of its superiority in modeling high ionic-strength inorganic salt solutions and actinide redox chemistry and solubility, both of which are relevant to the geological repository conditions at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in Carlsbad, New Mexico. Mineral solubility data in various inorganic salt solutions were digitized and extracted from figures generated by Harvie et al. (1984). For each of the 60 solubility curves, a case-specific chemistry model and input file were generated in OLI Studio using OLI Stream Analyzer and the MSE (H 3 O + ion) public databank provided by OLI Systems. Model simulation results were exported to Microsoft Excel to calculate summary statistics and to generate graphs comparing the OLI model predictions to the solubility data. Summary statistics include residuals (model – data) and concordance (accuracy × precision, where precision is indicated by the Pearson correlation coefficient and accuracy accounts for bias and scale differential). Private databanks were not developed, and activity coefficient model regressions were not performed to improve OLI model fits to the data. Of the 41 model verification plots, 83% have a mean of the percent residuals less than or equal to 25%. Similarly, 75% display a concordance greater than or equal to 0.75. Only seven of the 41 verification plots fail to show good agreement between the model and data. Of these seven, three are relevant to the WIPP repository because they involve the Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 aqueous system. The remaining four address salt solubilities at the pH extremes (strong acid and strong base). It should be noted that in two of the three Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 system cases, the regressed Harvie et al. (1984) solubility curve also deviated from the data. Lack of agreement between the OLI model-predicted solubility curves and the data is attributable to one or more of the following: specific solid species are not included in the OLI MSE databank; there is significant variation among the different solubility datasets chosen by Harvie et al. (1984); the OLI MSE model’s thermodynamic parameters were determined using different solubility datasets; and the activity coefficient parameters for certain relevant ion-ion and ion-molecule pairs have not been optimized via data regression. Two recommendations for future work are to (1) evaluate solubility data for the Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 system at high ionic strength and, if necessary, develop a private OLI MSE database that includes missing species and, where necessary, regressed standard state properties and interaction parameters; (2) perform similar verification testing of the OLI model for actinide solubility data.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

ROS-DOE: Leveraging Open-Source Robotics Software for the DOE-EM Mission? - 17181

In order to establish a common software framework for its robotic systems, the United States Department of Energy - Environmental Management (DOE-EM) is considering the possibility of extending the Robot Operating System (ROS) open source robotics software to address the varied, complex challenges facing DOE-EM. The effort, preliminarily called ROS-DOE, would enhance the reliability, robustness, security, and user friendliness of ROS to meet the requirements of the nuclear waste remediation mission, and those of DOE as a whole. As envisioned, the ROS DOE program would also support rapid progress to mature cross-cutting capabilities including supervised autonomy, inter-operability with off-the-shelf industrial equipment, and physics-based robot simulation (i.e., Gazebo). This paper provides background context about the current state of ROS software and its supporting community, surveys DOE-EM needs and requirements for robotic solutions, and analyzes the gaps between the current state of ROS and those needed for DOE-EM robotics. It then identifies new capabilities that are recommended for ROS-DOE and outlines software development practices that could be leveraged to blend the best of the open-source world with high-reliability software development practices. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2016

PetIGA: A framework for high-performance isogeometric analysis

We present PetIGA, a code framework to approximate the solution of partial differential equations using isogeometric analysis. PetIGA can be used to assemble matrices and vectors which come from a Galerkin weak form, discretized with Non-Uniform Rational B-spline basis functions. We base our framework on PETSc, a high-performance library for the scalable solution of partial differential equations, which simplifies the development of large-scale scientific codes, provides a rich environment for prototyping, and separates parallelism from algorithm choice. We describe the implementation of PetIGA, and exemplify its use by solving a model nonlinear problem. To illustrate the robustness and flexibility of PetIGA, we solve some challenging nonlinear partial differential equations that include problems in both solid and fluid mechanics. Lastly, we show strong scaling results on up to 4096 cores, which confirm the suitability of PetIGA for large scale simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop reported herein aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for assessing reliability and uncertainties of climate change information. An alternative approach is to generate similar ensembles by perturbing parameters within a single-model framework. One of workshop’s objectives was to give participants a deeper understanding of these approaches within a Bayesian statistical framework. However, there remain significant challenges still to be resolved before UQ can be applied in a convincing way to climate models and their projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗