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At least 1,081 records · Page 60
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Surface Solar Irradiance in Continental Shallow Cumulus Fields: Observations and Large-Eddy Simulation

This study examines shallow cumulus cloud fields and their surface shortwave radiative effects using large-eddy simulation (LES) along with observations across multiple days at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains atmospheric observatory. Pronounced differences are found between probability density functions (PDFs) of downwelling surface solar irradiance derived from observations and LES one-dimensional (1D) online radiation calculations. The shape of the observed PDF is bimodal, which is only reproduced by offline three-dimensional (3D) radiative transfer calculations, demonstrating PDF bimodality as a 3D radiative signature of continental shallow cumuli. Local differences between 3D and 1D radiative transfer calculations of downwelling surface solar irradiance are, on average, larger than 150 W m -2 on one afternoon. The differences are substantially reduced when spatially averaged over the LES domain and temporally averaged over the diurnal cycle, but systematic 3D biases ranging from 2 to 8 W m -2 persist across different days. Covariations between the domain-averaged surface irradiance, framed as a surface cloud radiative effect, and the simulated cloud fraction are found to follow a consistent diurnal relationship, often exhibiting hysteresis. In contrast, observations show highly variable behavior. By subsampling the LES domain, it is shown that this is due to the limited sampling density of inherently 3D observations. These findings help to define observational requirements for detecting such relationships, provide valuable insight for evaluating weather and climate models against surface observations as they push to ever higher resolutions, and have important implications for future assessments of solar renewable energy potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Ground-Based Remote Retrievals of Cumulus Entrainment Rates

While fractional entrainment rates for cumulus clouds have typically been derived from airborne observations, this limits the size and scope of available data sets. To increase the number of continental cumulus entrainment rate observations available for study, an algorithm for retrieving them from ground-based remote sensing observations has been developed. This algorithm, called the Entrainment Rate In Cumulus Algorithm (ERICA), uses the suite of instruments at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site of the United States Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility as inputs into a Gauss-Newton optimal estimation scheme, in which an assumed guess of the entrainment rate is iteratively adjusted through intercomparison of modeled liquid water path and cloud droplet effective radius to their observed counterparts. The forward model in this algorithm is the Explicit Mixing Parcel Model (EMPM), a cloud parcel model that treats entrainment as a series of discrete entrainment events. A quantified value for measurement uncertainty is also returned as part of the retrieval. Sensitivity testing and information content analysis demonstrate the robust nature of this method for retrieving accurate observations of the entrainment rate without the drawbacks of airborne sampling. Results from a test of ERICA on three months of shallow cumulus cloud events show significant variability of the entrainment rate of clouds in a single day and from one day to the next. The mean value of 1.06 km-¹ for the entrainment rate in this dataset corresponds well with prior observations and simulations of the entrainment rate in cumulus clouds.

Wagner, Timothy J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Schneider Springs Fire Study 2023 for Ecosystem Respiration Rates: Surface Water Chemistry and Hydrologic Sensor Data across the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA (v2)

This dataset supports a broader study examining the drivers of spatial variability in wildfire impacts across the Yakima River Basin. Data provided within this dataset were generated from sample collection across 17 total sites (8 sites affected by a recent wildfire, 9 sites unaffected by a recent wildfire) within multiple rivers throughout the Yakima River Basin in Washington, USA from May-July 2023. Fire affected sites are defined as those affected by the 2021 Schneider Springs Fire, based on the drainage area of the streams being within the 2021 Schneider Springs Fire burn perimeter or not (Figure 1, below). The contents include surface water geochemistry data (dissolved organic carbon; total dissolved nitrogen; total suspended solids); short-term sonde data (specific conductivity; turbidity; pH; chlorophyll A; temperature); stream depth data; stream velocity; manual chamber open channel respiration data; sensor time-series data (oxygen; water pressure; barometric pressure); field metadata (including qualitative information on in stream and river corridor characteristics); and environmental context photos taken in the field. The dataset also includes a summary file of the sensor data and plots of the sensor data. Sensors were only recovered at 15 out of the 17 sites, and not all sensors were recovered at all 15 sites (see Methods section for more details), therefore all data does not exist at all sites. Data from a 2022 study at the same sites, as well as additional sites, can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/1969566. The data package was originally published in November 2023. It was updated in June 2025 (v2; modified files). See the change history section in the readme for more details. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. This dataset is comprised of one folder with field photos and one main data folder with two subfolders. The main data folder consists of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) field metadata; (4) field protocol; (5) readme; (6) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; and (7) stream depth and averages. The sensor data subfolder consists of (1) sensor installation methods summary; (2) stream velocity; and (3) six subfolders. The BarotrollAtm (barometric pressure; temperature), DepthHOBO (water pressure; temperature), MantaRiver (specific conductivity; turbidity; pH; chlorophyll A; temperature), EXO (specific conductivity; pH; temperature), miniDOT (dissolved oxygen; temperature), and miniDOTManualChamber (dissolved oxygen; temperature) contain time-series data, plots, and summary files. The sample data subfolder consists of (1) total suspended solids (TSS) data; (2) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data and averages; (3) total dissolved nitrogen (TN) data and averages; and (4) methods codes. All files are .csv, .pdf, .jpg, .jpeg, or .mov.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Digital Rock Physics and 3D Printing for Fractured Porous Media

Imaging techniques for the analysis of porous structures have revolutionized our ability to quantitatively characterize geomaterials. Digital representations of rock from CT images and physics modeling based on these pore structures provide the opportunity to further advance our quantitative understanding of fluid flow, geomechanics, and geochemistry, and the emergence of coupled behaviors. Additive manufacturing, commonly known as 3D printing, has revolutionized production of custom parts with complex internal geometries. For the geosciences, recent advances in 3D printing technology may be co-opted to print reproducible porous structures derived from CT-imaging of actual rocks for experimental testing. The use of 3D printed microstructure allows us to surmount typical problems associated with sample-to-sample heterogeneity that plague rock physics testing and to test material response independent from pore-structure variability. Together, imaging, digital rocks and 3D printing potentially enables a new workflow for understanding coupled geophysical processes in a real, but well-defined setting circumventing typical issues associated with reproducibility, enabling full characterization and thus connection of physical phenomena to structure. Here we report on our research exploring the possibilities that these technologies can bring to geosciences for coupled multiscale experimental and numerical analysis using 3D printed fractured rock specimens.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

RASA Field Performance at US International Monitoring Stations

This report attempts to collate, analyze, and summarize RASA performance over time at each of 11 US operated IMS stations. The performance over time was compared to routine maintenance operations. The data, in general, were summarized into a set analyzed almost exclusively in Excel. The data set allows for further probing into RASA performance over time. The data set would permit data to be routinely added for continued analysis. In general, all RASA systems ran within the CTBTO mandated the MDA requirements over their current lifetime of operations. The largest impacts to performance appeared to arise from variabilities of Germanium gamma detectors as they were replaced. It is noted that the air volumes of samples were not provided and had to be assumed to be constant over the period analyzed.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nickel Binding to the c-Src SH3 Domain Facilitates Crystallization

Introduction: Numerous X-ray crystal structures of the c-Src SH3 domain have provideda large sampling of atomic-level information for this important signaling domain. Multiple crystalforms have been reported, with variable crystal lattice contacts and chemical crystallizationconditions. Materials and Methods: We crystallized the c-Src SH3 domain in a crystallization buffercontaining NiCl2. Results: A unique crystal structure of the Src SH3 domain in the trigonal space group H32 isdetermined to 1.45 Å resolution. Crystal packing and anomalous scattering reveal that this crystalform is mediated by two ordered nickel ions provided by the crystallization buffer. Nickelcoordination occurs in a 2:2 stoichiometry, which dimerizes two SH3 domain monomers across apseudo-twofold rotation axis and involves the native N-terminal c-Src SH3 amino acid sequence, asurface-exposed histidine residue, and ordered water molecules. Discussion: This study provides an example of metal-mediated crystallization and metal binding byN-terminal protein residues, contrasting with the Amino-Terminal Copper and Nickel Binding(ATCUN) motif. Conclusion: Alternative avenues help widen the potential for future crystallography-based studiesof the c-Src SH3 domain.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recovering the effects of subgrid heterogeneity in simulations of radionuclide transport through fractured media

Groundwater flow and contaminant transport through fractured media can be simulated using Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) models which provide a natural description of structural heterogeneity. However, this approach is computationally expensive, with the large number of intersecting fractures necessitated by many real-world applications requiring modeling simplifications to be made for calculations to be tractable. Upscaling methods commonly used for this purpose can result in some loss of local-scale variability in the groundwater flow velocity field, resulting in underestimation of particle travel times, transport resistance and retention in transport calculations. In this paper, a transport downscaling algorithm to recover the transport effects of heterogeneity is tested on a synthetic Brittle Fault Zone model, motivated by the problem of large safety assessment calculations for geological repositories of spent nuclear fuel. We show that the variability in the local-scale velocity field which is lost by upscaling can be recovered by sampling from a library of DFN transport paths, accurately reproducing DFN transport statistic distributions and radionuclide breakthrough curves in an upscaled model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A NanoSIMS 50 L Investigation into Improving the Precision and Accuracy of the 235U/238U Ratio Determination by Using the Molecular 235U16O and 238U16O Secondary Ions

A NanoSIMS 50 L was used to study the relationship between the 235U/238U atomic and 235U16O/238U16O molecular uranium isotope ratios determined from a variety of uranium compounds (UO2, UO2F2, UO3, UO2(NO3)2·6(H2O), and UF4) and silicates (NIST-610 glass and the Plesovice zircon reference materials, both containing µg/g uranium). Because there is typically a greater abundance of 235U16O+ and 238U16O+ molecular secondary ions than 235U+ and 238U+ atomic ions when uranium-bearing materials are sputtered with an oxygen primary ion beam, the goal was to understand whether use of 235U16O/238U16O has the potential for improved accuracy and precision when compared to the 235U/238U ratio. The UO2 and silicate reference materials showed the greatest potential for improved accuracy and precision through use of the 235U16O/238U16O ratio as compared to the 235U/238U ratio. For the UO2, which was investigated at a variety of primary beam currents, and the silicate reference materials, which were only investigated using a single primary beam current, this improvement was especially pronounced at low 235U+ count rates. In contrast, comparison of the 235U16O/238U16O ratio versus the 235U/238U ratio from the other uranium compounds clearly indicates that the 235U16O/238U16O ratio results in worse precision and accuracy. This behavior is based on the observation that the atomic (235U+ and 238U+) to molecular (235U16O+ and 238U16O+) secondary ion production rates remain internally consistent within the UO2 and silicate reference materials, whereas it is highly variable in the other uranium compounds. Efforts to understand the origin of this behavior suggest that irregular sample surface topography, and/or molecular interferences arising from the manner in which the UO2F2, UO3, UO2(NO3)2·6(H2O), and UF4 were prepared, may be a major contributing factor to the inconsistent relationship between the observed atomic and molecular secondary ion yields. Overall, the results suggest that for certain bulk compositions, use of the 235U16O/238U16O may be a viable approach to improving the precision and accuracy in situations where a relatively low 235U+ count rate is expected.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2020

A machine learning approach to emulation and biophysical parameter estimation with the Community Land Model, version 5

Abstract. Land models are essential tools for understanding and predicting terrestrial processes and climate–carbon feedbacks in the Earth system, but uncertainties in their future projections are poorly understood. Improvements in physical process realism and the representation of human influence arguably make models more comparable to reality but also increase the degrees of freedom in model configuration, leading to increased parametric uncertainty in projections. In this work we design and implement a machine learning approach to globally calibrate a subset of the parameters of the Community Land Model, version 5 (CLM5) to observations of carbon and water fluxes. We focus on parameters controlling biophysical features such as surface energy balance, hydrology, and carbon uptake. We first use parameter sensitivity simulations and a combination of objective metrics including ranked global mean sensitivity to multiple output variables and non-overlapping spatial pattern responses between parameters to narrow the parameter space and determine a subset of important CLM5 biophysical parameters for further analysis. Using a perturbed parameter ensemble, we then train a series of artificial feed-forward neural networks to emulate CLM5 output given parameter values as input. We use annual mean globally aggregated spatial variability in carbon and water fluxes as our emulation and calibration targets. Validation and out-of-sample tests are used to assess the predictive skill of the networks, and we utilize permutation feature importance and partial dependence methods to better interpret the results. The trained networks are then used to estimate global optimal parameter values with greater computational efficiency than achieved by hand tuning efforts and increased spatial scale relative to previous studies optimizing at a single site. By developing this methodology, our framework can help quantify the contribution of parameter uncertainty to overall uncertainty in land model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust historical evapotranspiration trends across climate regimes

Evapotranspiration (ET) links the hydrological, energy and carbon cycles on the land surface. Quantifying ET and its spatio-temporal changes is also key to understanding climate extremes such as droughts, heatwaves and flooding. Regional ET estimates require reliable observation-based gridded ET datasets, and while many have been developed using physically based, empirically based and hybrid techniques, their efficacy, and particularly the efficacy of their uncertainty estimates, is difficult to verify. In this work, we extend the methodology used in Hobeichi et al. (2018) to derive two new versions of the Derived Optimal Linear Combination Evapotranspiration (DOLCE) product, with observationally constrained spatio-temporally varying uncertainty estimates, higher spatial resolution, more constituent products and extended temporal coverage (1980–2018). After demonstrating the efficacy of these uncertainty estimates with out-of-sample testing, we derive novel ET climatology clusters for the land surface, based on the magnitude and variability of ET at each location on land. The new clusters include three wet and three dry regimes and provide an approximation of Köppen–Geiger climate classes. The verified uncertainty estimates and extended time period then allow us to examine the robustness of historical trends spatially and in each of these six ET climatology clusters. We find that despite robust decreasing ET trends in some regions these do not correlate with behavioural ET clusters. Each cluster, and the majority of the Earth's surface, shows clear robust increases in ET over the recent historical period. The new datasets DOLCE V2.1 and DOLCE V3 can be used for benchmarking global ET estimates and for examining ET trends respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Scalable Gradient Free Method for Bayesian Experimental Design with Implicit Models

Bayesian experimental design (BED) is to answer the question that how to choose designs that maximize the information gathering. For implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable but sampling is possible, conventional BED methods have difficulties in efficiently estimating the posterior distribution and maximizing the mutual information (MI) between data and parameters. Recent work proposed the use of gradient ascent to maximize a lower bound on MI to deal with these issues. However, the approach requires a sampling path to compute the pathwise gradient of the MI lower bound with respect to the design variables, and such a pathwise gradient is usually inaccessible for implicit models. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that leverages recent advances in stochastic approximate gradient ascent incorporated with a smoothed variational MI estimator for efficient and robust BED. Without the necessity of pathwise gradients, our approach allows the design process to be achieved through a unified procedure with an approximate gradient for implicit models. Several experiments show that our approach outperforms baseline methods, and significantly improves the scalability of BED in high-dimensional problems.

Zhang, Jiaxin↗
DOE OSTI2014

Diffusion Processes Satisfying a Conservation Law Constraint

We investigate coupled stochastic differential equations governing N non-negative continuous random variables that satisfy a conservation principle. In various fields a conservation law requires that a set of fluctuating variables be non-negative and (if appropriately normalized) sum to one. As a result, any stochastic differential equation model to be realizable must not produce events outside of the allowed sample space. We develop a set of constraints on the drift and diffusion terms of such stochastic models to ensure that both the non-negativity and the unit-sum conservation law constraint are satisfied as the variables evolve in time. We investigate the consequences of the developed constraints on the Fokker-Planck equation, the associated system of stochastic differential equations, and the evolution equations of the first four moments of the probability density function. We show that random variables, satisfying a conservation law constraint, represented by stochastic diffusion processes, must have diffusion terms that are coupled and nonlinear. The set of constraints developed enables the development of statistical representations of fluctuating variables satisfying a conservation law. We exemplify the results with the bivariate beta process and the multivariate Wright-Fisher, Dirichlet, and Lochner’s generalized Dirichlet processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sample Preparation Method for Low-Level Total 129 I Measurements by ICP-MS

Trace-level measurements of iodine’s isotopic ( 129 I and 127 I) and chemical species distributions are needed for an accurate understanding of radioiodine migration in the Hanford subsurface. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) previously developed a novel analytical method for iodine characterization that uses ion chromatography (IC) coupled to inductively coupled mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). While the method can measure speciated forms of 129 I at levels below the drinking water standard, an interference from molybdenum (Mo) prevents the assay from quantifying the $\underline{total}$ 129 I concentration in many Hanford sample matrices. In this work, solvent extraction was evaluated as a sample preparation method for eliminating the Mo interference. A series of 10 experiments was conducted in which solutions containing known amounts of iodate or iodide were treated by solvent extraction, and the extracted solutions were analyzed for total iodine concentrations by ICP MS. Several extraction parameters such as reagent concentrations and chemical reaction times were systematically adjusted in attempts to optimize the extraction process. While solvent extraction was shown to be effective at removing Mo, there was a consistent inability to recover more than approximately 75% of the total iodine in most experiments. This would reduce the ability to detect 129 I at levels near the drinking water standard. Additionally, the extraction efficiencies in several experiments were highly variable, suggesting that solvent extraction could add significant uncertainty to radioiodine measurements. We recommend evaluating ion exchange as an alternative sample preparation approach in fiscal year (FY) 2024.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2017

Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient

Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). We formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions, to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. The correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. This study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.

Partition coefficient↗
DOE OSTI2012

Organ sample generator for expected treatment dose construction and adaptive inverse planning optimization

Purpose: To create an organ sample generator (OSG) for expected treatment dose construction and adaptive inverse planning optimization. The OSG generates random samples of organs of interest from a distribution obeying the patient specific organ variation probability density function (PDF) during the course of adaptive radiotherapy. Methods: Principle component analysis (PCA) and a time-varying least-squares regression (LSR) method were used on patient specific geometric variations of organs of interest manifested on multiple daily volumetric images obtained during the treatment course. The construction of the OSG includes the determination of eigenvectors of the organ variation using PCA, and the determination of the corresponding coefficients using time-varying LSR. The coefficients can be either random variables or random functions of the elapsed treatment days depending on the characteristics of organ variation as a stationary or a nonstationary random process. The LSR method with time-varying weighting parameters was applied to the precollected daily volumetric images to determine the function form of the coefficients. Eleven h and n cancer patients with 30 daily cone beam CT images each were included in the evaluation of the OSG. The evaluation was performed using a total of 18 organs of interest, including 15 organs at risk and 3 targets. Results: Geometric variations of organs of interest during h and n cancer radiotherapy can be represented using the first 3 {approx} 4 eigenvectors. These eigenvectors were variable during treatment, and need to be updated using new daily images obtained during the treatment course. The OSG generates random samples of organs of interest from the estimated organ variation PDF of the individual. The accuracy of the estimated PDF can be improved recursively using extra daily image feedback during the treatment course. The average deviations in the estimation of the mean and standard deviation of the organ variation PDF for h and n cancer radiotherapy were less than 2 and 1 mm, respectively, for most organs after the second week of treatment. After the first three weeks of treatment, the mean discrepancy of the dose estimation accuracy was within 1% for most of organs, the corresponding standard deviation was within 2.5% for parotids, the brain stem and the cochleae, and within 1% for other organs. Conclusions: A patient specific OSG is feasible and can be used to generate random samples of organs of interest for the expected treatment dose construction and adaptive inverse planning. The accuracy of the OSG can be improved continuously and recursively during the adaptive treatment course using daily volumetric image feedback.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Single crystal magnetic structure and susceptibility of CoSe{sub 2}O{sub 5}

The structure of CoSe{sub 2}O{sub 5} consists of one-dimensional ribbons of edge-sharing CoO{sub 6} octahedra bound together by polyanionic subunits of Se{sub 2}O{sub 5}. Previous work on polycrystalline samples reported a canted antiferromagnetic arrangement of the magnetic moments below the ordering temperature of 8.5 K. Here, we report a single crystal investigation using variable temperature and field magnetic susceptibility and low-temperature neutron diffraction to more precisely characterize the nature of the magnetic ground state of CoSe{sub 2}O{sub 5}. Contrary to previous reports, we find that the single crystal magnetic structure shows no canting of the antiferromagnetic ground state, and in the process have identified several field-induced changes to the magnetization. We discuss these results in the context of the revised magnetic structure and highlight the importance of crystal growth for the accurate characterization of these properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Source Attribution of Cyanides using Anionic Impurity Profiling, Stable Isotope Ratios, Trace Elemental Analysis and Chemometrics

Chemical attribution signatures (CAS) for chemical threat agents (CTAs) are being investigated to provide an evidentiary link between CTAs and specific sources to support criminal investigations and prosecutions. In a previous study, anionic impurity profiles developed using high performance ion chromatography (HPIC) were demonstrated as CAS for matching samples from eight potassium cyanide (KCN) stocks to their reported countries of origin. Herein, a larger number of solid KCN stocks (n = 13) and, for the first time, solid sodium cyanide (NaCN) stocks (n = 15) were examined to determine what additional sourcing information can be obtained through anion, carbon stable isotope, and elemental analyses of cyanide stocks by HPIC, isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS), and inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES), respectively. The HPIC anion data was evaluated using the variable selection methods of Fisher-ratio (F-ratio), interval partial least squares (iPLS), and genetic algorithm-based partial least squares (GAPLS) and the classification methods of partial least squares discriminate analysis (PLSDA), K nearest neighbors (KNN), and support vector machines discriminate analysis (SVMDA). In summary, hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) of anion impurity profiles from multiple cyanide stocks from six reported country of origins resulted in cyanide samples clustering into three groups: Czech Republic, Germany, and United States, independent of the associated alkali metal (K or Na). The three country groups were independently corroborated by HCA of cyanide elemental profiles and corresponded to countries with known solid cyanide factories. Both the anion and elemental CAS are believed to originate from the aqueous alkali hydroxides used in cyanide manufacture. Carbon stable isotope measurements resulted in two clusters: Germany and United States (the single Czech stock grouped with United States stocks). The carbon isotope CAS is believed to originate from the carbon source and process used to make the HCN utilized in cyanide synthesis. Classification errors for two validation studies using anion impurity profiles collected over five years on different instruments were as low as zero for KNN and SVMDA, demonstrating the excellent reliability (so far) of using anion impurities for matching a cyanide sample to its country of manufacture (i.e., factory). Variable selection reduced errors for those classification methods having errors greater than zero with iPLS-forward selection, and F-ratio typically providing the lowest errors. Finally, using anion profiles to match cyanides to a specific stock or stock group resulted in cross-validation errors ranging from zero to 5.3%.

chemical forensics↗
DOE OSTI2019

Ongoing solution reproducibility of earth system models as they progress toward exascale computing

We present a methodology for solution reproducibility for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model during its ongoing software infrastructure development to prepare for exascale computers. The nonlinear chaotic nature of climate system simulations precludes traditional model verification approaches since machine precision differences—resulting from code refactoring, changes in software environment, and so on—grow exponentially to a different weather state. Here, we leverage the nature of climate as a statistical description of the atmosphere in order to establish model reproducibility. We evaluate the degree to which two-sample equality of distribution tests can confidently detect the change in climate from minor tuning parameter changes on model output variables in order to establish the level of difference that indicates a new climate. To apply this (baselined test), we target a section of the model’s development cycle wherein no intentional science changes have been applied to its source code. We compare an ensemble of short simulations that were conducted using a verified model configuration against a new ensemble with the same configuration but with the latest software infrastructure (Common Infrastructure for Modeling the Earth, CIME5.0), compiler versions, and software libraries. We also compare these against ensemble simulations conducted using the original version of the software infrastructure (CIME4.0) of the earlier model configuration, but with the latest compilers and software libraries, to test the impact of new compilers and libraries in isolation from additional software infrastructure. The two-sample equality of distribution tests indicates that these ensembles indeed represent the same climate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗