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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Intensification of North American Megadroughts through Surface and Dust Aerosol Forcing

Tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) indicate that, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains of North America experienced recurrent periods of drought spanning decades or longer. These megadroughts had exceptional persistence compared to more recent events, but the causes remain uncertain. The authors conducted a suite of general circulation model experiments to test the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and land surface forcing on the MCA megadroughts over the central plains. The land surface forcing is represented as a set of dune mobilization boundary conditions, derived from available geomorphological evidence and modeled as increased bare soil area and a dust aerosol source (32deg-44degN, 105deg-95degW). In the experiments, cold tropical Pacific SST forcing suppresses precipitation over the central plains but cannot reproduce the overall drying or persistence seen in the PDSI reconstruction. Droughts in the scenario with dust aerosols, however, are amplified and have significantly longer persistence than in other model experiments, more closely matching the reconstructed PDSI. This additional drying occurs because the dust increases the shortwave planetary albedo, reducing energy inputs to the surface and boundary layer. The energy deficit increases atmospheric stability, inhibiting convection and reducing cloud cover and precipitation over the central plains. Results from this study provide the first model-based evidence that dust aerosol forcing and land surface changes could have contributed to the intensity and persistence of the central plains megadroughts, although uncertainties remain in the formulation of the boundary conditions and the future importance of these feedbacks.

Earth surface↗

Effects of Mackenzie River Discharge and Bathymetry on Sea Ice in the Beaufort Sea

Mackenzie River discharge and bathymetry effects on sea ice in the Beaufort Sea are examined in 2012 when Arctic sea ice extent hit a record low. Satellite-derived sea surface temperature revealed warmer waters closer to river mouths. By 5 July 2012, Mackenzie warm waters occupied most of an open water area about 316,000 sq km. Surface temperature in a common open water area increased by 6.5 C between 14 June and 5 July 2012, before and after the river waters broke through a recurrent landfast ice barrier formed over the shallow seafloor offshore the Mackenzie Delta. In 2012, melting by warm river waters was especially effective when the strong Beaufort Gyre fragmented sea ice into unconsolidated floes. The Mackenzie and other large rivers can transport an enormous amount of heat across immense continental watersheds into the Arctic Ocean, constituting a stark contrast to the Antarctic that has no such rivers to affect sea ice.

Mackenzie↗

Characterization of the Inner Knot of the Crab: the Site of the Gamma-ray Flares?

One of the most intriguing recent discoveries has been the detection of powerful gamma-ray flares from the Crab Nebula. Such events, with a recurrence time of about once per year, can be so dramatic to make the system the brightest source in the gamma‐ray sky as occurred, e.g. in April 2011. These flares challenge our understanding of how pulsar wind nebulae work and defy current astrophysical models for particle acceleration. We present here our study of the inner knot located within a fraction of an arcsecond from the pulsar with the aim of characterizing the feature and asking if this might be the site of the origin of the gamma-ray flares. We took data using Keck, HST, and Chandra obtained as part of our multi‐wavelength campaign to identify the source of the enigmatic flares. We set an upper limit as to the gamma-ray flux from the knot. We also find that the dimensions, surface brightness, flux, etc. of the optical and infrared knot are all correlated with distance from the pulsar. This distance, in turn, varies with time. In addition to this most thorough characterization of the inner knot's properties, we examine the hypothesis that the knot may be the site of the flares by examining the knot separation versus the Fermi/LAT gamma-ray flux. Finally, as part of this research, we make use of a new approach employing singular value decomposition (SVD) for analyzing time series of images and compare the approach to more traditional methods. Our conclusions are only refined but not impacted by using the new approach.

Gamma-ray Flares↗

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗

Centimeter to Decimeter Size Spherical and Cylindrical Features in Gale Crater Sediments

The Curiosity rover traverse in Gale crater has explored a large series of sedimentary deposits in an ancient lake on Mars. Over the nine kilometers of traverse a recurrent observation has been southward-dipping sedimentary strata, from Shaler at the edge of Yellowknife Bay to the striated units near the Kimberley. Within the sedimentary strata cm- to decimeter- size hollow spheroidal objects and some apparent cylindrical objects have been observed. These features have not been seen by previous landed missions. The first of these were observed on sol 122 in the Gillespie Lake member at Yellowknife Bay. Additional hollow features were observed in the Point Lake outcrop in the same area. More recently a spherical and apparently hollow object, Winnipesaukee, was observed by ChemCam and Mastcam on sol 653. Here we describe the settings, morphology, and associated compositions, and we discuss possible origins of these objects.

Wiens, R. C.↗

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of a Global Landslide Catalog

Landslide inventories are critical to support investigations ofwhere andwhen landslides have happened andmay occur in the future; however, there is surprisingly little information on the historical occurrence of landslides at the global scale. This paper presents a new publicly available global landslide catalog (GLC), which is based on media reports, online databases, and other sources. This database is currently available at http://ojo-streamer. herokuapp.com/. The 5741 points in the GLC provide a foundation for evaluating spatial and temporal trends in landslide activity from 2007 to 2013. Globally, landslideswere reportedmost frequently from July to September. Most events occurred in Asia, North America and Southeast Asia. In contrast, fewer than 5% of the fatalities were reported in North America, suggesting a significant amount of under-reporting in other regions as well as potential discrepancies between developing and developed regions. Reported landslide events were also compared to satellite-based precipitation estimates fromthe Tropical RainfallMeasuring Mission (TRMM) to evaluate the co-occurrence of extreme precipitation and landslide activity. Of the 3550 points considered in a subset of the GLC, approximately 60% of the reported landslides have daily precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile of precipitation calculated over a 14-year TRMMrecord for the same location. This study also investigated how the recurrence interval of extreme precipitation corresponded to some of the most catastrophic landslide events. In spite of several reporting and cataloging biases, spatial and temporal analysis of the GLC suggests that it is a valuable database for characterizing global patterns of landslide occurrence and evaluating relationships with extreme precipitation at regional and global scales.

Analysis↗

Space Biology and Medicine: Space and Its Exploration - Volume I

Perhaps one of the greatest gifts that has been given to the people of the world in the last few hundred years has been an emerging sense of the place of our planet and its inhabitants within the context of the vast universe. Our knowledge of the rest of the universe has not come quickly, nor was the process of attaining it only recently begun; however, the unprecedented acceleration of that process has benefitted from a fundamental new aspect of our species that has only manifested itself in the last 30 years or so, the ability to travel in space. Before the space age, the Universe was studied only through observations from the Earth. All that has changed with the beginning of the space age. Machines built by humans have flown to all but one of the nine planets that revolve around our Sun, have ventured billions of miles from the Earth and looked back, and have landed on three other worlds. Spacecraft in orbit around the Earth have viewed the sky at a vast number of electromagnetic wavelengths, detecting the shape of the galaxy and the universe, and even measuring the remnants of the universe's beginning. Human explorers have ventured forth, first for short stays in orbit, then, later, walking upon the Moon and living for long periods in space. As they did so, billions of people on the Earth came to view the Earth in a fundamentally different way, not just as the familiar day to- day backdrop for their lives, but as a small oasis suspended in the night sky above an alien landscape. It is this new view of the Earth that is the true gift of space exploration. Space exploration has at once given us a new perspective on the value of our world, and a new perspective from which to understand how it operates. It has shown us that the Earth is by far the most precious place in the solar system in terms of supporting human life, while revealing that other destinations may still be compelling. The exploration of space has at once become a challenge for humanity to overcome and a path to our common future. But for humanity to embark on this path, we need to understand ourselves in a new environment. As such, an understanding of the biological consequences of and opportunities in space flight is essential. In this, the first volume of a joint U.S./Russian series on space biology and medicine, we describe the current status of our understanding of space and present general information that will prove useful when reading subsequent volumes. Since we are witnesses to the beginning of a new era of interplanetary travel, a significant portion of the first volume will concentrate on the physical and ecological conditions that exist in near and outer space, as well as heavenly bodies from the smallest ones to the giant planets and stars. While space exploration is a comparatively recent endeavor, its foundations were laid much more than 30 years ago, and its history has been an eventful one. In the first part of this volume, Rauschenbach, Sokolskiy, and Gurjian address the "Historical Aspects of Space Exploration" from its beginnings to a present-day view of the events of the space age. The nature of space itself and its features is the focus of the second section of the volume. In the first chapter of the part, "Stars and Interstellar Space," the origin and evolution of stars, and the nature of the portions of space most distant from Earth are described by Galeev and Marochnik. In Chapter 2, Pisarenko, Logachev, and Kurt in "The Sun and Interplanetary Space" bring us to the vicinity of our own solar system and provide a description and discussion of the nearest star and its influence on the space environment that our Earth and the other planets inhabit. In our solar system there are many fascinating objects, remnants of the formation of a rather ordinary star in a rather obscure portion of the galaxy. Historical accident has caused us to be much more curious (and knowledgeable) about "The Inner Planets of the Solar System" than about any of these other objects. In Chapter 3, Marov describes the planets Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars, their history and origin, and their environmental conditions, and in Chapter 4 Owen provides similar information about Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto, "The Outer Planets of the Solar System." Morrison provides a thorough discussion of "Asteroids, Comets, and Other Small Bodies" in Chapter 5. The understanding of these relics of the formation of the solar system may form the center of our ability to understand the origin of solar systems in general, and of the critical role that the beginning of the solar system had on the prospects for the origin of life and its continued survival and evolution in the face of their recurrent impacts on Earth. In Chapter 6, the first chapter of the third part, Rummel describes the area of "Exobiology," the study of the origin, evolution, and distribution of life in the context of the origin and evolution of the universe. The same processes that have given rise to life on Earth may have given rise to life elsewhere. In Chapter 7, the "Earth and the Biosphere," the nature and function of the Earth are discussed as a specific instance of planetary and biological evolution. The effects of biological processes on the Earth under the influence of human activities are also addressed by Moore and Bartlett in Chapter 7. The final chapter in this section concerns the prospects that life in the universe may be widespread; "SETI," the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, by Billingham and Tarter, presents the arguments for conducting a search for evidence of life elsewhere in the galaxy, and describes the various methods proposed for conducting such a search. While SETI has a distinctly exploration al character, more direct means are available for exploring the solar system around us. The fourth part of the volume addresses this subject of space exploration. Considering the prospects for research on space biology and medicine, the means of providing "Access to Space" are described by Feoktistov and Briggs in Chapter 9. This chapter addresses carriers and launch systems, the unmanned and manned spacecraft that they loft into space, and the task of mission operations by which these precious vessels are monitored, navigated, and controlled. Despite the successes of the past and the capabilities of the present, it is clear that the study of space biology and medicine will be even more rewarding in the future than it has been to date. The work of the next few years that will be undertaken by the U.S. and Russia, both independently and jointly, will focus first on enabling greater capabilities in the exploration of space, and then on using the unique characteristics of the space environment to provide insight and greater understanding into biological systems, their behavior, development, and origin. The chapters of the first volume were written by leaders in their fields from the U.S. and Russia. The material presented summarizes our current understanding of space and its exploration. We understand that the first volume will be of interest not only to medical personnel and biologists, but also to general readers who want information about space beyond their own particular fields of expertise.

Nicogossian, Arnauld E.↗

Verification of a Viscous Computational Aeroacoustics Code Using External Verification Analysis

The External Verification Analysis approach to code verification is extended to solve the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations with constant properties, and is used to verify a high-order computational aeroacoustics (CAA) code. After a brief review of the relevant literature, the details of the EVA approach are presented and compared to the similar Method of Manufactured Solutions (MMS). Pseudocode representations of EVA's algorithms are included, along with the recurrence relations needed to construct the EVA solution. The code verification results show that EVA was able to convincingly verify a high-order, viscous CAA code without the addition of MMS-style source terms, or any other modifications to the code.

Computational↗

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Walton, M.↗

Verification of a Viscous Computational Aeroacoustics Code using External Verification Analysis

The External Verification Analysis approach to code verification is extended to solve the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations with constant properties, and is used to verify a high-order computational aeroacoustics (CAA) code. After a brief review of the relevant literature, the details of the EVA approach are presented and compared to the similar Method of Manufactured Solutions (MMS). Pseudocode representations of EVA's algorithms are included, along with the recurrence relations needed to construct the EVA solution. The code verification results show that EVA was able to convincingly verify a high-order, viscous CAA code without the addition of MMS-style source terms, or any other modifications to the code.

Computational↗

Ubiquitous Fast Propagating Intensity Disturbances in Solar Chromosphere

High cadence observations by the slit-jaw (SJ) optics system of the sounding rocket experiment "the Chromospheric Lyman Alpha SpectroPolarimeter (CLASP)" reveal ubiquitous intensity disturbances that recurrently propagate in either the chromosphere, transition region, or both at a speed much higher than the sound speed.

disturbances↗

Discovery of Ubiquitous Fast Propagating Intensity Disturbances by the Chromospheric Lyman Alpha Spectropolarimeter (CLASP)

High cadence observations by the slit-jaw (SJ) optics system of the sounding rocket experiment known as the Chromospheric Lyman Alpha SpectroPolarimeter (CLASP) reveal ubiquitous intensity disturbances that recurrently propagate in one or both of the chromosphere or transition region at a speed much higher than the sound speed. The CLASP/SJ instrument provides a time series of 2D images taken with broadband filters centered on the Ly(alpha) line at a 0.6 s cadence. The fast propagating intensity disturbances are detected in the quiet Sun and in an active region, and at least 20 events are clearly detected in the field of view of 527′′ x 527′′ during the 5-minute observing time. The apparent speeds of the intensity disturbances range from 150 to 350 km/s, and they are comparable to the local Alfven speed in the transition region. The intensity disturbances tend to propagate along bright elongated structures away from areas with strong photospheric magnetic fields. This suggests that the observed propagating intensity disturbances are related to the magnetic canopy structures. The maximum distance traveled by the intensity disturbances is of about 10′′, and the widths are a few arcseconds, which is almost determined by the pixel size of 1.′′03. The timescale of each intensity pulse is shorter than 30 s. One possible explanation of the fast propagating intensity disturbances observed by CLASP is magneto-hydrodynamic fast mode waves.

CLASP↗

Identification of Fixations in Noisy Eye Movements via Recursive Subdivision

When solving problems, multi-person airline crews can choose whether to work together, or to address different aspects of a situation with a divide and conquer strategy. Knowing which of these strategies is most effective may help airlines develop better procedures and training. This paper concentrates on joint attention as a measure of crew coordination. We report results obtained by applying cross recurrence analysis to eye movement data from two-person crews, collected in a flight simulator experiment. The analysis shows that crews exhibit coordinated gaze roughly one sixth of the time, with a tendency for the captain to lead the first officers visual attention. The degree to which crews coordinate their gaze is not significantly correlated with performance ratings assigned by instructors; further research questions and approaches are discussed.

signal processing↗

Application of Machine Learning to Rotorcraft Health Monitoring

Machine learning is a powerful tool for data exploration and model building with large data sets. This project aimed to use machine learning techniques to explore the inherent structure of data from rotorcraft gear tests, relationships between features and damage states, and to build a system for predicting gear health for future rotorcraft transmission applications. Classical machine learning techniques are difficult, if not irresponsible to apply to time series data because many make the assumption of independence between samples. To overcome this, Hidden Markov Models were used to create a binary classifier for identifying scuffing transitions and Recurrent Neural Networks were used to leverage long distance relationships in predicting discrete damage states. When combined in a workflow, where the binary classifier acted as a filter for the fatigue monitor, the system was able to demonstrate accuracy in damage state prediction and scuffing identification. The time dependent nature of the data restricted data exploration to collecting and analyzing data from the model selection process. The limited amount of available data was unable to give useful information, and the division of training and testing sets tended to heavily influence the scores of the models across combinations of features and hyper-parameters. This work built a framework for tracking scuffing and fatigue on streaming data and demonstrates that machine learning has much to offer rotorcraft health monitoring by using Bayesian learning and deep learning methods to capture the time dependent nature of the data. Suggested future work is to implement the framework developed in this project using a larger variety of data sets to test the generalization capabilities of the models and allow for data exploration.

machine learning↗

Research-Grade 3D Virtual Astromaterials Samples: Novel Visualization of NASA's Apollo Lunar Samples and Antarctic Meteorite Samples to Benefit Curation, Research, and Education

NASA's vast and growing collections of astromaterials are both scientifically and culturally significant, requiring unique preservation strategies that need to be recurrently updated to contemporary technological capabilities and increasing accessibility demands. New technologies have made it possible to advance documentation and visualization practices that can enhance conservation and curation protocols for NASA's Astromaterials Collections. Our interdisciplinary team has developed a method to create 3D Virtual Astromaterials Samples (VAS) of the existing collections of Apollo Lunar Samples and Antarctic Meteorites. Research-grade 3D VAS will virtually put these samples in the hands of researchers and educators worldwide, increasing accessibility and visibility of these significant collections. With new sample return missions on the horizon, it is of primary importance to develop advanced curation standards for documentation and visualization methodologies.

Blumenfeld, E. H.↗

The First Twenty Years (1994 2014) of Ozone Soundings from Rapa Nui (27 deg S, 109 deg W, 51 m a.s.l.)

Ozone (O3) soundings have been performed on Easter Island or Rapa Nui (27 8S, 109 8W, 51 m a.s.l.) since 1994 as part of the Global Atmospheric Watch Programme of the World Meteorological Organization. In this work, we analyze 260 soundings compiled over the period 19942014, and make the data available for the international community. We characterize O3 profiles over this remote area of the Pacific by means of statistical analyses that consider, on the one hand, a traditional climatology that describes the data in terms of seasonal cycles based on monthly averages and, on the other hand, a process-oriented analysis based on self-organizing maps. Our analyses show the influence of both tropical and subtropical/mid-latitude air masses at Rapa Nui. The former occurs in summer and fall when convective conditions prevail, and the latter in late winter and spring when subsiding conditions are recurrent. The occurrence of stratospheric intrusions in late winter and spring in connection with deep troughs and the presence of the subtropical jet stream is also apparent in the data set. The tropospheric ozone column is in good agreement with the corresponding data derived from satellites but with a systematic overestimate of summer and fall values. There is evidence of an upward trend in ozone near the surface, which suggests the impact of local pollution. We look forward to an enhancement of the Rapa Nui observing site, given its location that offers a privileged position to observe climate change over the sparsely sampled and vast South Pacific Ocean.

tropical and subtropical/mid-latitude air masses↗

A Soft X-Ray Spectral Episode for the Clocked Burster, GS 1826-24 as Measured by Swift and NuSTAR

We report on NuSTAR and Swift observations of a soft state of the neutron star low-mass X-ray binary GS 1826-24, commonly known as the "clocked" burster. The transition to the soft state was recorded in 2014 June through an increase of the 2-20 keV source intensity measured by MAXI, simultaneous with a decrease of the 15-50 keV intensity measured by Swift/BAT. The episode lasted approximately two months, after which the source returned to its usual hard state. We analyze the broadband spectrum measured by Swift/XRT and NuSTAR and estimate the accretion rate during the soft episode to be approximately equal to 13% m(sub Edd), within the range of previous observations. However, the best-fit spectral model, adopting the double Comptonization used previously, exhibits significantly softer components. We detect seven type-I X-ray bursts, all significantly weaker (and with shorter rise and decay times) than observed previously. The burst profiles and recurrence times vary significantly, ruling out the regular bursts that are typical for this source. One burst exhibited photospheric radius expansionand we estimate the source distance as (5.7 +/- 0.2) xi(sub b)(exp -1/2) kpc, where xi(sub b) parameterizes the possible anisotropy of the burst emission. The observed soft state may most likely be interpreted as a change in accretion geometry at about similar bolometric luminosity as in the hard state. The different burst behavior can therefore be attributed to this change in accretion flow geometry, but the fundamental cause and process for this effect remain unclear.

accretion↗

Magnetospheric State of Sawtooth Events

Magnetospheric sawtooth events, first identified in the early 1990s, are named for their characteristic appearance of multiple quasiperiodic intervals of slow decrease followed by sharp increase of proton differential energy fluxes in the geosynchronous region. The successive proton flux oscillations have been interpreted as recurrences of stretching and dipolarization of the nightside geomagnetic field. Due to their often extended intervals with 210 cycles, sawteeth occurrences are sometimes referred to as a magnetospheric mode. While studies of sawtooth events over the past two decades have yielded a wealth of information about such events, the magnetospheric state conditions for the occurrence of sawtooth events and how sawtooth oscillations may depend on the magnetospheric state conditions remain unclear. In this study, we investigate the characteristic magnetospheric state conditions (specified by Psw interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Btot, IMF Bz Vsw, AE, Kp and Dst, all time shifted with respect to one another) associated with the intervals before, during, and after sawteeth occurrences. Applying a previously developed statistical technique, we have determined the most probable magnetospheric states propitious for the development and occurrence of sawtooth events, respectively. The statistically determined sawtooth magnetospheric state has also been validated by using out-of-sample events, confirming the notion that sawtooth intervals might represent a particular global state of the magnetosphere. We propose that the sawtooth state of the magnetosphere may be a state of marginal stability in which a slight enhancement in the loading rate of an otherwise continuous loading process can send the magnetosphere into the marginally unstable regime, causing it to shed limited amount of energy quickly and return to the marginally stable regime with the loading process continuing. Sawtooth oscillations result as the magnetosphere switches between the marginally stable (loading) and unstable (unloading) phases.

Fung, Shing F.↗