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NASA NTRS2022

Comparison of U.S. and Russian Slow Crack Growth Data and Models

Both the US and Russian space programs use similar predictive models for design of fused silica windows on the International space station. The Russian model can be derived from the power expression for slow crack growth (SCG) or “static fatigue.” The US uses both power and exponential models. Despite the similarity of models and data fitting approach (linear regression and right censoring), different SCG parameters have been derived by US and Russian parties for the same material (Russian fused silica) tested in a similar manner. The difference appears to be related to the use of short-term strength data along with the longer-term static fatigue data, with the power law parameter n being very sensitive to the conversion of strength data into equivalent static data. This hybrid approach is feasible if strength data is measured with a constant stress rate and is appropriately converted to a static equivalent. More research into the approach is needed. However, because of the nonlinear behavior of fused silica in log(v) – log(K(I) ) space and the sensitivity of parameter estimation to fit range, the exponential model is a better choice regardless of test method. Functions are given to convert parameters from the Russian model to those in the US model. However, accurate conversion is hampered by the lack of inert strength data. When the same test technique is used, US and Russian materials exhibit very similar parameters.

Silica, strength, impact, crack growth, windows, I↗

NASA NTRS1981

Global isostatic geoid anomalies for plate and boundary layer models of the lithosphere

Commonly used one dimensional geoid models predict that the isostatic geoid anomaly over old ocean basins for the boundary layer thermal model of the lithosphere is a factor of two greater than that for the plate model. Calculations presented, using the spherical analogues of the plate and boundary layer thermal models, show that for the actual global distribution of plate ages, one dimensional models are not accurate and a spherical, fully three dimensional treatment is necessary. The maximum difference in geoid heights predicted for the two models is only about two meters. The thermal structure of old lithosphere is unlikely to be resolvable using global geoid anomalies. Stripping the effects of plate aging and a hypothetical uniform, 35 km, isostatically-compensated continental crust from the observed geoid emphasizes that the largest-amplitude geoid anomaly is the geoid low of almost 120 m over West Antarctica, a factor of two greater than the low of 60 m over Ceylon.

Hager, B. H.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Detailed Post-Soft Impact Progressive Damage Assessment for Hybrid Structure Jet Engines

Currently, certification of engine designs for resistance to bird strike is reliant on physical tests. Predictive modeling of engine structural damage has mostly been limited to evaluation of individual forward section components, such as fan blades within a fixed frame of reference, to direct impact with a bird. Such models must be extended to include interactions among engine components under operating conditions to evaluate the full extent of engine damage. This paper presents the results of a study aim to develop a methodology for evaluating bird strike damage in advanced propulsion systems incorporating hybrid composite/metal structures. The initial degradation and failure of individual fan blades struck by a bird were investigated. Subsequent damage to other fan blades and engine components due to resultant violent fan assembly vibrations and fragmentation was further evaluated. Various modeling parameters for the bird and engine components were investigated to determine guidelines for accurately capturing initial damage and progressive failure of engine components. Then, a novel hybrid structure modeling approach was investigated and incorporated into the crashworthiness methodology. Such a tool is invaluable to the process of design, development, and certification of future advanced propulsion systems.

bird strike↗

NASA NTRS2022

Using an Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Characterize Earth System Model Errors: Application of SHAP Analysis to Modeling Lightning Flash Occurrence

Computational models of the Earth System are critical tools for modern scientific inquiry. Effortstoward evaluating and improving errors in representations of physical and chemical processes inthese large computational systems are commonly stymied by highly nonlinear and complexerror behavior. Recent work has shown that these errors can be effectively predicted usingmodern Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) techniques. In this work, we go beyond these previousstudies to apply an interpretable A.I. technique to not only predict model errors but also movetoward understanding the underlying reasons for successful error prediction. We use XGBoostclassification trees and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to explore the errors inthe prediction of lightning occurrence in the NASA GEOS model, a widely used Earth SystemModel. This explainable error prediction system can effectively predict the model error andindicates that the errors are strongly related to convective processes and the characteristics ofthe land surface.

Artificial intelligence↗

NASA NTRS2003

Jet Noise Modeling for Coannular Nozzles Including the Effects of Chevrons

Development of good predictive models for jet noise has always been plagued by the difficulty in obtaining good quality data over a wide range of conditions in different facilities.We consider such issues very carefully in selecting data to be used in developing our model. Flight effects are of critical importance, and none of the means of determining them are without significant problems. Free-jet flight simulation facilities are very useful, and can provide meaningful data so long as they can be analytically transformed to the flight frame of reference. In this report we show that different methodologies used by NASA and industry to perform this transformation produce very different results, especially in the rear quadrant; this compels us to rely largely on static data to develop our model, but we show reasonable agreement with simulated flight data when these transformation issues are considered. A persistent problem in obtaining good quality data is noise generated in the experimental facility upstream of the test nozzle: valves, elbows, obstructions, and especially the combustor can contribute significant noise, and much of this noise is of a broadband nature, easily confused with jet noise. Muffling of these sources is costly in terms of size as well as expense, and it is particularly difficult in flight simulation facilities, where compactness of hardware is very important, as discussed by Viswanathan (Ref. 13). We feel that the effects of jet density on jet mixing noise may have been somewhat obscured by these problems, leading to the variable density exponent used in most jet noise prediction procedures including our own. We investigate this issue, applying Occam s razor, (e.g., Ref. 14), in a search for the simplest physically meaningful model that adequately describes the observed phenomena. In a similar vein, we see no reason to reject the Lighthill approach; it provides a very solid basis upon which to build a predictive procedure, as we believe we demonstrate in this report. Another feature of our approach is that the analyses are all conducted with lossless spectra, rather than Standard Day spectra, as is often done in industry. We feel that it is important to isolate the effects of as many physical processes as practical. Atmospheric attenuation can then be included using the relations developed for NASA by Shields and Bass (Ref. 15), which are available in both FOOTPR and ANOPP. The current approach to coannular jet noise prediction used in FOOTPR is reported in Reference 16, which updates the earlier conventional-velocity-profile (CVP, Ref. 17) and inverted-velocity-profile (IVP, Ref. 18) models.

Stone, James R.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A unified thermal and vertical trajectory model for the prediction of high altitude balloon performance

A computer model for the prediction of the trajectory and thermal behavior of zero-pressure high altitude balloon was developed. In accord with flight data, the model permits radiative emission and absorption of the lifting gas and daytime gas temperatures above that of the balloon film. It also includes ballasting, venting, and valving. Predictions obtained with the model are compared with flight data from several flights and newly discovered features are discussed.

Carlson, L. A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Photospheric Current Spikes and Their Possible Association with Flares - Results from an HMI Data Driven Model

A data driven, near photospheric magnetohydrodynamic model predicts spikes in the horizontal current density, and associated resistive heating rate per unit volume Q. The spikes appear as increases by orders of magnitude above background values in neutral line regions (NLRs) of active regions (ARs). The largest spikes typically occur a few hours to a few days prior to M or X flares. The spikes correspond to large vertical derivatives of the horizontal magnetic field. The model takes as input the photospheric magnetic field observed by the Helioseismic & Magnetic Imager (HMI) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. This 2.5 D field is used to determine an analytic expression for a 3 D magnetic field, from which the current density, vector potential, and electric field are computed in every AR pixel for 14 ARs. The field is not assumed to be force-free. The spurious 6, 12, and 24 hour Doppler periods due to SDO orbital motion are filtered out of the time series of the HMI magnetic field for each pixel using a band pass filter. The subset of spikes analyzed at the pixel level are found to occur on HMI and granulation scales of 1 arcsec and 12 minutes. Spikes are found in ARs with and without M or X flares, and outside as well as inside NLRs, but the largest spikes are localized in the NLRs of ARs with M or X flares. The energy to drive the heating associated with the largest current spikes comes from bulk flow kinetic energy, not the electromagnetic field, and the current density is highly non-force free. The results suggest that, in combination with the model, HMI is revealing strong, convection driven, non-force free heating events on granulation scales, and that it is plausible these events are correlated with subsequent M or X flares. More and longer time series need to be analyzed to determine if such a correlation exists. Above an AR dependent threshold value of Q, the number of events N(Q) with heating rates greater than or equal to Q obeys a scale invariant power law distribution for each AR given by N(Q) varies Q(sup -s), where 0.40 less than or equal to S less than or equal to 0.53, with a mean and standard deviation across the 14 ARs of 0.47 and 0.045, showing there is little variation of S from one AR to another. These properties of N(Q) are in close agreement with those of the distribution N(E) for the total energy E of solar flares, determined from observations to be N(E) = constant x E(sup -alpha). From observations of nanoflares in the 0.7 to 4 MK range, and from observations of flares in hard X-rays, it is found that 0.51 less than or equal to alpha less than or equal to 0.57, and 0.4 less than or equal to alpha less than or equal to 0.6, respectively (Crosby et al. 1993, Sol. Phys., 143, 275; Aschwanden & Parnell 2002, ApJ, 572, 1048). Observations also show that, as is found here for the exponent S, there is little variation of alpha with AR (Wheatland 2000, ApJ, 532, 1209), indicating N(E) and N(Q) are largely independent of individual properties of ARs such as area, total magnetic flux, and distribution of current density (i.e. non-potentiality). Therefore the power law scaling of the photospheric heating rate Q computed here on granulation scales is essentially identical to that found for coronal observations of flare energies on scales 1-2 orders of magnitude larger. This suggests the physical mechanisms that cause Q and coronal flares are closely related. It seems likely that Q is the signature of a magnetic reconnection process in an energy range and volume orders of magnitude smaller than those of flares. In this context, at least the larger spikes in Q might be signatures of UV photospheric or lower chromospheric bombs in which plasma is heated to temperatures approximately 10(exp -5) K (Peter et al. 2014, Science 346, 1255726; Judge 2015, ApJ, 808, 116). In addition, lattice based avalanche simulations of flare energy release predict 0.4 less than or equal to alpha less than or equal to 0.5, while analytic, fractal-diffusive self-organized criticality models predict 0.4 less than or equal to alpha less than or equal to 0.67, in excellent agreement with observations, and the results presented here (Aschwanden & Parnell 2002, ApJ, 572, 1048; Aschwanden 2012, A&A, 539, A2; Aschwanden 2013, in "Self Organized Criticality Systems"; Aschwanden et al. 2016, SSR, 198, 47).

Goodman, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1975

Crop status evaluations and yield predictions

A model was developed for predicting the day 50 percent of the wheat crop is planted in North Dakota. This model incorporates location as an independent variable. The Julian date when 50 percent of the crop was planted for the nine divisions of North Dakota for seven years was regressed on the 49 variables through the step-down multiple regression procedure. This procedure begins with all of the independent variables and sequentially removes variables that are below a predetermined level of significance after each step. The prediction equation was tested on daily data. The accuracy of the model is considered satisfactory for finding the historic dates on which to initiate yield prediction model. Growth prediction models were also developed for spring wheat.

Haun, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Solar-Pumped Fluorescence Model for Line-By-Line Emission Intensities in the B-X, A-X, and X-X Band Systems of 12C14N

We present a new quantitative model for detailed solar-pumped fluorescent emission of the main isotopologue of CN. The derived fluorescence efficiencies permit estimation and interpretation of ro-vibrational infrared line intensities of CN in exospheres exposed to solar (or stellar) radiation. Our g-factors are applicable to astronomical observations of CN extending from infrared to optical wavelengths, and we compare them with previous calculations in the literature. The new model enables extraction of rotational temperature, column abundance, and production rate from astronomical observations of CN in the inner coma of comets. Our model accounts for excitation and de-excitation of rotational levels in the ground vibrational state by collisions, solar excitation to the A(sup 2)Pi(sub I) and B(sup 2)Sum(sup +) electronically excited states followed by cascade to ro-vibrational levels of X(sup 2)Sum(sup +), and direct solar infrared pumping of ro-vibrational levels in the X(sup 2)Sum(sup +) state. The model uses advanced solar spectra acquired at high spectral resolution at the relevant infrared and optical wavelengths and considers the heliocentric radial velocity of the comet (the Swings effect) when assessing the exciting solar flux for a given transition. We present model predictions for the variation of fluorescence rates with rotational temperature and heliocentric radial velocity. Furthermore, we test our fluorescence model by comparing predicted and measured line-by-line intensities for X(sup 2)Sum(sup +) (1-0) in comet C/2014 Q2 (Lovejoy), thereby identifying multiple emission lines observed at IR wavelengths.

Emission↗

NASA NTRS1987

Solar proton events as tests for the fidelity of middle atmosphere models

Ozone depletions associated with solar proton events have now been observed in nine events: November 1969, January and September 1971, August 1972, June and August 1979, October 1981, and July and December 1982. Since the proton fluxes during these events are fairly well known from satellite observations, modelers have been able to compare model predictions with observations of ozone behavior during these events to test the validity of atmospheric photochemical models. Ozone decreases initially follow approximately their theoretically predicted behavior below about 45 km (where NOx is thought to cause the ozone decrease), but after about two weeks the observed decrease appears to be larger than the computed decrease. Above 45 km, where HOx is thought to cause the ozone decrease, the picture of model validity is not as clear. The observed ozone decreases between about 45 and 60 km are substantially more than that predicted by present photochemical models while between about 60 and 85 km the observed ozone decrease is approximately equal to that predicted.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Constraining Gamma-Ray Pulsar Gap Models with a Simulated Pulsar Population

With the large sample of young gamma-ray pulsars discovered by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), population synthesis has become a powerful tool for comparing their collective properties with model predictions. We synthesised a pulsar population based on a radio emission model and four gamma-ray gap models (Polar Cap, Slot Gap, Outer Gap, and One Pole Caustic). Applying gamma-ray and radio visibility criteria, we normalise the simulation to the number of detected radio pulsars by a select group of ten radio surveys. The luminosity and the wide beams from the outer gaps can easily account for the number of Fermi detections in 2 years of observations. The wide slot-gap beam requires an increase by a factor of 10 of the predicted luminosity to produce a reasonable number of gamma-ray pulsars. Such large increases in the luminosity may be accommodated by implementing offset polar caps. The narrow polar-cap beams contribute at most only a handful of LAT pulsars. Using standard distributions in birth location and pulsar spin-down power (E), we skew the initial magnetic field and period distributions in a an attempt to account for the high E Fermi pulsars. While we compromise the agreement between simulated and detected distributions of radio pulsars, the simulations fail to reproduce the LAT findings: all models under-predict the number of LAT pulsars with high E , and they cannot explain the high probability of detecting both the radio and gamma-ray beams at high E. The beaming factor remains close to 1.0 over 4 decades in E evolution for the slot gap whereas it significantly decreases with increasing age for the outer gaps. The evolution of the enhanced slot-gap luminosity with E is compatible with the large dispersion of gamma-ray luminosity seen in the LAT data. The stronger evolution predicted for the outer gap, which is linked to the polar cap heating by the return current, is apparently not supported by the LAT data. The LAT sample of gamma-ray pulsars therefore provides a fresh perspective on the early evolution of the luminosity and beam width of the gamma-ray emission from young pulsars, calling for thin and more luminous gaps.

Pierbattista, Marco↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Effects of Surfaces on the Aerodynamics and Acoustics of Jet Flows

Aircraft noise mitigation is an ongoing challenge for the aeronautics research community. In response to this challenge, low-noise aircraft concepts have been developed that exhibit situations where the jet exhaust interacts with an airframe surface. Jet flows interacting with nearby surfaces manifest a complex behavior in which acoustic and aerodynamic characteristics are altered. In this paper, the variation of the aerodynamics, acoustic source, and far-field acoustic intensity are examined as a large at plate is positioned relative to the nozzle exit. Steady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes solutions are examined to study the aerodynamic changes in the field-variables and turbulence statistics. The mixing noise model of Tam and Auriault is used to predict the noise produced by the jet. To validate both the aerodynamic and the noise prediction models, results are compared with Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) and free-field acoustic data respectively. The variation of the aerodynamic quantities and noise source are examined by comparing predictions from various jet and at plate configurations with an isolated jet. To quantify the propulsion airframe aeroacoustic installation effects on the aerodynamic noise source, a non-dimensional number is formed that contains the flow-conditions and airframe installation parameters.

Smith, Matthew J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Spatial orientation of the vestibular system

1. A simplified three-dimensional state space model of visual vestibular interaction was formulated. Matrix and dynamical system operators representing coupling from the semicircular canals and the visual system to the velocity storage integrator were incorporated into the model. 2. It was postulated that the system matrix for a tilted position was a composition of two linear transformations of the system matrix for the upright position. One transformation modifies the eigenvalues of the system matrix while another rotates the pitch and roll eigenvectors with the head, while maintaining the yaw axis eigenvector approximately spatially invariant. Using this representation, the response characteristics of the pitch, roll, and yaw eye velocity were obtained in terms of the eigenvalues and associated eigenvectors. 3. Using OKAN data obtained from monkeys and comparing to the model predictions, the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the system matrix were identified as a function of tilt to the side or of tilt to the prone positions, using a modification of the Marquardt algorithm. The yaw eigenvector for right-side-down tilt and for downward pitch cross-coupling was approximately 30 degrees from the spatial vertical. For the prone position, the eigenvector was computed to be approximately 20 degrees relative to the spatial vertical. For both side-down and prone positions, oblique OKN induced along eigenvector directions generated OKAN which decayed to zero along a straight line with approximately a single time constant. This was verified by a spectral analysis of the residual sequence about the straight line fit to the decaying data. The residual sequence was associated with a narrow autocorrelation function and a wide power spectrum. 4. Parameters found using the Marquardt algorithm were incorporated into the model. Diagonal matrices in a head coordinate frame were introduced to represent the direct pathway and the coupling of the visual system to the integrator. Model simulations predicted the behavior of yaw and pitch OKN and OKAN when the animal was upright, as well as the cross-coupling in the tilted position. The trajectories in velocity space were also accurately simulated. 5. There were similarities between the monkey eigenvectors and human perception of the spatial vertical. For side-down tilts and downward eye velocity cross-coupling, there was only an Aubert (A) effect. For upward eye velocity cross-coupling there were both Muller (E) and Aubert (A) effects. The mean of the eigenvectors for upward and downward eye velocities overlay human 1 x g perceptual data.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS).

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

NASA NTRS1981

A model of the human observer and decision maker

The decision process is described in terms of classical sequential decision theory by considering the hypothesis that an abnormal condition has occurred by means of a generalized likelihood ratio test. For this, a sufficient statistic is provided by the innovation sequence which is the result of the perception an information processing submodel of the human observer. On the basis of only two model parameters, the model predicts the decision speed/accuracy trade-off and various attentional characteristics. A preliminary test of the model for single variable failure detection tasks resulted in a very good fit of the experimental data. In a formal validation program, a variety of multivariable failure detection tasks was investigated and the predictive capability of the model was demonstrated.

Wewerinke, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A two-component rain model for the prediction of attenuation and diversity improvement

A new model was developed to predict attenuation statistics for a single Earth-satellite or terrestrial propagation path. The model was extended to provide predictions of the joint occurrences of specified or higher attenuation values on two closely spaced Earth-satellite paths. The joint statistics provide the information required to obtain diversity gain or diversity advantage estimates. The new model is meteorologically based. It was tested against available Earth-satellite beacon observations and terrestrial path measurements. The model employs the rain climate region descriptions of the Global rain model. The rms deviation between the predicted and observed attenuation values for the terrestrial path data was 35 percent, a result consistent with the expectations of the Global model when the rain rate distribution for the path is not used in the calculation. Within the United States the rms deviation between measurement and prediction was 36 percent but worldwide it was 79 percent.

Crane, R. K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The ZBOT-NC Experiment - Effects of Non-Condensable Gases on Propellant Tank Pressurization and Pressure Control

Introduction Integral to all phases of NASA’s projected planetary expeditions is affordable and reliable cryogenic fluid storage for use in propellant or life support systems. It is greatly advantageous to develop innovative vent-less pressure control designs based on cooling/mixing of the bulk tank fluid to allow storage of the cryogenic fluid with zero or reduced boil-off. The presence of noncondensable gases, can interfere with the condensation at the interface impacting tank pressure control during subcooled jet mixing especially in microgravity. The Zero-Boil-Off Tank (ZBOT) Experiments are a series of small-scale experiments aboard the International Space Station (ISS) that use a transparent volatile simulant fluid in a transparent sealed tank to delineate various fundamental fluid flow, heat and mass transport, and phase change phenomena associated with storage tank pressurization and pressure control in microgravity. The ZBOT-1 experiment was performed on the ISS 2017-2018 timeframe and collected data to validate a state-of-the-art CFD model for tank pressurization and pressure control for a pure system. The ZBOT-NC Experiment is the second experiment in the series to be performed on the International Space Station (ISS) in 2025. Its goal is to investigate the effects of noncondensable gases on interfacial evaporation and condensation during self -pressurization and jet-mixing pressure control in microgravity for a two-component system. Materials & Methods In this work, we will describe the detailed features of the ZBOT-NC experimental hardware and Diagnostics that includes nonintrusive Quantum Dot Thermometry (QDT) for whole field temperature measurement. All microgravity pressurization and pressure control tests will be performed for both the pure and the two-components systems with Xenon and Neon as the two noncondensable gases spanning small and large molecular weights and sizes. The two-phase CFD model that is developed as part of the project will be also presented and discussed. Results Ground-based pressurization and jet mixing experiments and CFD simulation results are compared to each other to validate both the fidelity of the CFD model predictions and the accuracy of the QDT measurement. Model simulations for noncondensable gas effects will also be compared against large Cryogenic LH2-GHe experiments to indicate the noncondensable gas effects on tank pressure control during jet mixing in 1G. Finally, CFD results will be presented to predict the effects of the noncondensable gas during subcooled jet mixing during the ZBOT-NC in advance of the microgravity experiment in 2015.

Evaporation Condensation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Zero-Boil-Off Tank Experiment: the Effects of Non-Condensable Gases on Pressurization and Pressure Control of Propellant Tanks in Microgravity

Evaporation Condensation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Flooded Fraction Prediction through Machine Learning Models Focusing on Medical Infrastructure in the Southeast U.S. Coastal Areas

Rising sea levels due to climate change increasingly threaten medical infrastructure through flooding. This study develops machine learning models to predict flood exposure for 11,508 medical facilities in the southeastern coastal regions of the United States by integrating datasets including meteorological, hydrological, topographic, and geological data, the Natural Risk Index, and historical flood records from NASA, HIFLD, and FEMA. Six regression models, namely Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression, Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbors, XGBoost, and Artificial Neural Networks, are trained using 16 explanatory variables identified through literature review and correlation analysis. Data preprocessing employs the SMOGN for class imbalance and Winsorization for outliers. Model performance is evaluated using MAE, MSE, and RMSE, with Random Forest and XGBoost models achieving the highest performance (MSE of 2.58e-5 and 3.69e-5, respectively). This multifactorial approach allows the models to capture complex flood-influencing relationships, enhancing adaptability and performance across geographic regions. Future work focuses on expanding across the U.S. and developing a near real-time flood monitoring system.

Jihoon Chung↗