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DOE OSTI2025

Model-driven prediction for accelerator magnet diagnostics to improve operation reliability

Reliability is one of the most critical metrics for accelerator operation, especially in user facilities. To reduce costly facility downtime and provide an operational environment where system performance can be reliably predicted in support of scientific studies, we are developing a model-driven approach for prediction and anomaly detection. Here, in this study, we present the application of a model-driven method that employs a linear regression model to predict the future temperature, in real time, of accelerator magnets at the NSLS-II light source. This approach enables proactive identification of magnet-heating issues, facilitating magnet flushing prior to the occurrence of permanent damage without interrupting machine operation. The implementation of this method in the NSLS-II control room is described and the analysis of the online results is presented. The results demonstrate the model’s effectiveness in providing early alerts to engineers and improving the reliability of accelerator operations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thermomechanical Microstructural Predictions of Fracture Nucleation of Zircaloy-4 Alloys With δ and ε Hydride Distributions

Abstract A crystalline dislocation-density formulation that was incorporated with a nonlinear finite-element (FE) method was utilized to understand and to predict the thermomechanical behavior of an hexagonal closest packed (h.c.p.) zircaloy system with hydrides with either face-centered cubic (f.c.c.) or body-centered cubic (b.c.c.) hydrides. This formulation was then used with a recently developed fracture methodology that is adapted for finite inelastic strains and multiphase crystalline systems to understand how different microstructurally based fracture modes nucleate and propagate. The interrelated microstructural characteristics of the different crystalline hydride and matrix phases with the necessary orientation relationships (ORs) have been represented, such that a detailed physical understanding of fracture nucleation and propagation can be predicted for the simultaneous thermomechanical failure modes of hydride populations and the matrix. The effects of volume fraction, morphology, crystalline structure, and orientation and distribution of the hydrides on simultaneous and multiple fracture modes were investigated for radial, circumferential, and mixed distributions. Another key aspect was accounting for temperatures changes due to the effects of thermal conduction and dissipated plastic work and their collective effects on fracture. For hydrided aggregates subjected to high temperatures, thermal softening resulted in higher ductility due to increased dislocation-density activity, which led to higher shear strain accumulation and inhibited crack nucleation and growth. The predictions provide validated insights into why circumferential hydrides are more fracture-resistant than radial hydrides for different volume fractions and thermomechanical loading conditions.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2024

Library Screening, In Vivo Confirmation, and Structural and Bioinformatic Analysis of Pentapeptide Sequences as Substrates for Protein Farnesyltransferase

Protein farnesylation is a post-translational modification where a 15-carbon farnesyl isoprenoid is appended to the C-terminal end of a protein by farnesyltransferase (FTase). This process often causes proteins to associate with the membrane and participate in signal transduction pathways. The most common substrates of FTase are proteins that have C-terminal tetrapeptide CaaX box sequences where the cysteine is the site of modification. However, recent work has shown that five amino acid sequences can also be recognized, including the pentapeptides CMIIM and CSLMQ. In this work, peptide libraries were initially used to systematically vary the residues in those two parental sequences using an assay based on Matrix Assisted Laser Desorption Ionization–Mass Spectrometry (MALDI-MS). In addition, 192 pentapeptide sequences from the human proteome were screened using that assay to discover additional extended CaaaX-box motifs. Selected hits from that screening effort were rescreened using an in vivo yeast reporter protein assay. The X-ray crystal structure of CMIIM bound to FTase was also solved, showing that the C-terminal tripeptide of that sequence interacted with the enzyme in a similar manner as the C-terminal tripeptide of CVVM, suggesting that the tripeptide comprises a common structural element for substrate recognition in both tetrapeptide and pentapeptide sequences. Molecular dynamics simulation of CMIIM bound to FTase further shed light on the molecular interactions involved, showing that a putative catalytically competent Zn(II)-thiolate species was able to form. Bioinformatic predictions of tetrapeptide (CaaX-box) reactivity correlated well with the reactivity of pentapeptides obtained from in vivo analysis, reinforcing the importance of the C-terminal tripeptide motif. This analysis provides a structural framework for understanding the reactivity of extended CaaaX-box motifs and a method that may be useful for predicting the reactivity of additional FTase substrates bearing CaaaX-box sequences.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Probabilistic Deep Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Bias Correction

Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2023

UniKP: a unified framework for the prediction of enzyme kinetic parameters

Prediction of enzyme kinetic parameters is essential for designing and optimizing enzymes for various biotechnological and industrial applications, but the limited performance of current prediction tools on diverse tasks hinders their practical applications. Here, we introduce UniKP, a unified framework based on pretrained language models for the prediction of enzyme kinetic parameters, including enzyme turnover number (k cat ), Michaelis constant (K m ), and catalytic efficiency (k cat / K m ), from protein sequences and substrate structures. A two-layer framework derived from UniKP (EF-UniKP) has also been proposed to allow robust k cat prediction in considering environmental factors, including pH and temperature. In addition, four representative re-weighting methods are systematically explored to successfully reduce the prediction error in high-value prediction tasks. We have demonstrated the application of UniKP and EF-UniKP in several enzyme discovery and directed evolution tasks, leading to the identification of new enzymes and enzyme mutants with higher activity. UniKP is a valuable tool for deciphering the mechanisms of enzyme kinetics and enables novel insights into enzyme engineering and their industrial applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Survival analysis of localized prostate cancer with deep learning

In recent years, data-driven, deep-learning-based models have shown great promise in medical risk prediction. By utilizing the large-scale Electronic Health Record data found in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States, we have developed an automated, personalized risk prediction model to support the clinical decision-making process for localized prostate cancer patients. This method combines the representative power of deep learning and the analytical interpretability of parametric regression models and can implement both time-dependent and static input data. To collect a comprehensive evaluation of model performances, we calculate time-dependent C-statistics C td over 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizons using either a composite outcome or prostate cancer mortality as the target event. The composite outcome combines the Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) test, metastasis, and prostate cancer mortality. Our longitudinal model Recurrent Deep Survival Machine (RDSM) achieved C td 0.85 (0.83), 0.80 (0.83), and 0.76 (0.81), while the cross-sectional model Deep Survival Machine (DSM) attained C td 0.85 (0.82), 0.80 (0.82), and 0.76 (0.79) for the 2-, 5-, and 10-year composite (mortality) outcomes, respectively. In addition to estimating the survival probability, our method can quantify the uncertainty associated with the prediction. The uncertainty scores show a consistent correlation with the prediction accuracy. We find PSA and prostate cancer stage information are the most important indicators in risk prediction. Our work demonstrates the utility of the data-driven machine learning model in prostate cancer risk prediction, which can play a critical role in the clinical decision system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Melt Curves of Energetic Materials Using Molecular Models

Here, in this work, the solid–liquid coexistence curves of classical fully flexible atomistic models of α-RDX and β-HMX were calculated using thermodynamically rigorous methodologies that identify where the free energy difference between the phases is zero. The free energy difference between each phase at a given state point was computed using the pseudosupercritical path (PSCP) method, and Gibbs–Helmholtz integration was used to evaluate the solid–liquid free energy difference as a function of temperature. This procedure was repeated for several pressures to determine points along the coexistence curve, which were then fit to the Simon–Glatzel functional form. While effective, this method is computationally expensive. An alternative approach is to compute the melting point at a single pressure via the PSCP method, and then use the Gibbs–Duhem integration technique to trace out the coexistence curve in a more computationally economical manner. Both approaches were used to determine the coexistence curve of α-RDX. The Gibbs–Duhem integration method was shown to generate a melt curve that is in good agreement with the PSCP-derived melt curve, while only costing ~10 % of the computational resources used for the PSCP method. For α-RDX, the predicted melting temperature increases significantly more for a given increase in pressure when compared to available experimental data.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Review of Computational Models for the Flow of Milled Biomass Part II: Continuum-Mechanics Models

The design of efficient material-handling systems for milled lignocellulosic biomass is challenging due to their complex particle morphologies and frictional interactions. Computational modeling, including the discrete element method (DEM) and continuum-based finite-element/volume methods, may offer scientific insight and predictive capabilities for the flow of milled biomass in hoppers and feeders. Herein, this article (Part II) presents a review of current state-of-the-art continuum models for the flow of milled biomass, whereas DEM models are reviewed in a companion article (Part I). Advances of numerical methods to solve the global governing equations are discussed first, followed by a comprehensive review of constitutive models for granular materials, including Drucker–Prager, hypoplastic, Cambridge-type, inertial-rheology, and nonlocal granular fluidity models. Specifically, we provide in-depth discussion on the suitability of those models for milled lignocellulosic biomass materials in terms of nonlinear elasticity, dependence of flow strength on pressure, density and shear rate, and compaction (dilation) associated with hardening (softening). Furthermore, our study shows that, despite the recent advances in continuum granular flow modeling, the most suitable constitutive models still need further development to account for material parametrization, multiflow regimes, and multiscale behavior before they can be reliably used to optimize the design and operation of biomass handling systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Best practices for first-principles simulations of epitaxial inorganic interfaces

Abstract At an interface between two materials physical properties and functionalities may be achieved, which would not exist in either material alone. Epitaxial inorganic interfaces are at the heart of semiconductor, spintronic, and quantum devices. First principles simulations based on density functional theory (DFT) can help elucidate the electronic and magnetic properties of interfaces and relate them to the structure and composition at the atomistic scale. Furthermore, DFT simulations can predict the structure and properties of candidate interfaces and guide experimental efforts in promising directions. However, DFT simulations of interfaces can be technically elaborate and computationally expensive. To help researchers embarking on such simulations, this review covers best practices for first principles simulations of epitaxial inorganic interfaces, including DFT methods, interface model construction, interface structure prediction, and analysis and visualization tools.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2022

MECHANISTIC MULTIPHYSICS MODELING OF CLADDING RUPTURE IN NUCLEAR FUEL RODS DURING LOSS-OF-COOLANT ACCIDENT CONDITIONS

The Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) is a design basis accident that is included as part of the safety analysis of nuclear power plants. As the nuclear industry desires to increase the cycle length and discharge burnup of existing nuclear power plants they must demonstrate safe operation during a LOCA on high burnup fuel. During a LOCA transient on high burnup fuel rods, the rods may undergo a process known as fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). To permit dispersal, the cladding encapsulating the fuel must rupture with an opening size large enough to allow the fragmented fuel particles to release. Current licensing tools used by industry and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission are limited in geometric fidelity and materials that can be analyzed. These simulation tools generally employ a quasi-two-dimensional (1.5D or Layered1D) or 2D-RZ axisymmetric geometric representations exclusively. While a valid approach under some instances, there are times when important physics have an asymmetric behavior in the fuel rod. Examples include fuel fragmentation, thermal-hydraulic boundary conditions, and cladding rupture, all of which are important for LOCA analysis. As industry pursues burnup extensions it must be demonstrated that fuel dispersal can be mitigated or eliminated. To do this, an understanding of the rupture opening after cladding failure is required. This work presents the development of a model for predicting the size and location of the rupture opening in failed fuel rods during LOCA conditions using advanced modeling and simulation tools. In order to supply the rupture model with appropriate boundary conditions, improvements to fuel fragmentation, axial relocation and oxidation modeling were required. First, the eXtended Finite Element Method (XFEM) is used to mechanistically predict the number of fuel fragments that form due to material strength randomization, criteria for strength randomization, mesh density, power ramping rates and irradiation effects. These predictions with associated uncertainty were compared to empirical correlations developed for UO2 verifying that they can be used with increased confidence in subsequent axial relocation analyses. Secondly, a new first-of-its-kind Layered2D computational framework was developed that provides the ability to apply azimuthally varying boundary conditions while providing discrete layers to track fuel movement during the LOCA. An existing fuel axial relocation model developed for Layered1D was extended to work within the Layered2D framework. A large sensitivity study was performed on the initial version of the model to identify modeling parameters of particular importance, with the emissivity used for radiation after blowdown being the primary source of uncertainty. Then, a simplistic approach to incorporate mechanical degradation of the cladding due to oxidation was also developed to investigate the impact of reduced cladding thickness on predictions of the time to failure of cladding tubes. It was found that the cladding will typically rupture prior to a reduction in thickness that is sufficient to impact the rupture behavior. A model was then developed for predicting cladding rupture that transfers the cladding surface temperatures, rod internal and external pressures, fast neutron fluence, and fast neutron flux from a more detailed Layered1D, Layered2D, or 2D-RZ analysis to a 3D cladding only analysis. Comparisons of the rupture model to a few experiments indicate reasonable predictions. The rupture model was then applied to two accident tolerant fuel concepts (FeCrAl and Cr-coated Zircaloy) where it predicted that both ATF concepts would have smaller rupture openings and delayed rupture times than the standard Zircaloy-4 cladding material under identical loading conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Identifying stochastic dynamics via finite expression methods

Modeling stochastic differential equations (SDEs) is crucial for understanding complex dynamical systems in various scientific fields. Recent methods often employ neural network-based models, which typically represent SDEs through a combination of deterministic and stochastic terms. However, these models usually lack interpretability and have difficulty in generalizing beyond their training domain. Here, this paper introduces the Finite Expression Method (FEX), a symbolic learning approach designed to derive interpretable mathematical representations of the deterministic component of SDEs. For the stochastic component, we integrate FEX with advanced generative modeling techniques to provide a comprehensive representation of SDEs. The numerical experiments on linear, nonlinear, and multidimensional SDEs demonstrate that FEX generalizes well beyond the training domain and delivers more accurate long-term predictions compared to neural network-based methods. The symbolic expressions identified by FEX not only improve prediction accuracy but also offer valuable scientific insights into the underlying dynamics of the systems.

Complex dynamical systems↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-throughput oxidation screening and down-selection of refractory high entropy alloys in the Al-Cr-Mo-Nb-Ta-Ti system

Rapid experimentation and characterization are ever-present needs in the discovery of high entropy alloys. High entropy alloy systems are difficult to survey with systematic composition sweeps using traditional synthesis methods. The number of distinct compositions in even a four-element system is experimentally intractable. Exploration of these, and higher-element systems, necessitates thermodynamic prediction coupled with an automated sample creation method and a rapid screening methodology to effectively down-select alloys with targeted properties. As a result, a high-throughput method for evaluating the oxidation performance of refractory high entropy alloys was developed and tested. The six-element system of aluminum, chromium, molybdenum, niobium, tantalum, and titanium was evaluated for single phase stability and short-duration oxidation resistance. Target compositions were initially determined via thermodynamic predictions of single-phase stability across a wide temperature range. A twenty-five-sample build plate was produced using directed energy deposition additive manufacturing. After fabrication, the twenty-five 1 cm 3 samples were heat treated and characterized for composition and phase identification. The build plate was exposed to a high temperature oxidizing environment at 1000 °C for three hours. After oxidation, the composition, morphology, and chemistry of the oxides formed were characterized. Of the twenty-five samples produced, nine exhibited a favorable oxidation response, from which a single-phase BCC alloy at a composition of Al 13 Cr 7 Mo 19 Nb 18 Ta 26 Ti 17 was identified as the alloy with the most protective oxidation coating with a thin, adherent oxide scale. Finally, the complete experimental down-selection—from machine setup to final alloy identification—required approximately 45 labor hours, demonstrating a rapid validation for alloy discovery.

Additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scaled Vecchia Approximation for Fast Computer-Model Emulation

Many scientific phenomena are studied using computer experiments consisting of multiple runs of a computer model while varying the input settings. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular tool for the analysis of computer experiments, enabling interpolation between input settings, but direct GP inference is computationally infeasible for large datasets. We adapt and extend a powerful class of GP methods from spatial statistics to enable the scalable analysis and emulation of large computer experiments. Specifically, we apply Vecchia’s ordered conditional approximation in a transformed input space, with each input scaled according to how strongly it relates to the computer-model response. The scaling is learned from the data by estimating parameters in the GP covariance function using Fisher scoring. Our methods are highly scalable, enabling estimation, joint prediction, and simulation in near-linear time in the number of model runs. In several numerical examples, our approach substantially outperformed existing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

INVESTIGATION OF HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR ANALYZING PRE-INITIATORS

As a type of human actions defined in human reliability analysis (HRA), pre-initiator refers to the human actions that may lead to the unavailability of systems, typically committed during maintenance, test, or calibration. This paper investigates representative HRA methods used for analyzing pre-initiators. The HRA methods are Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP), Korean Standard HRA (K-HRA) and Standard Plant Risk HRA (SPAR-H). In this paper, characteristics of each HRA method are compared for qualitative and quantification aspects. Two pre-initiators, i.e., a calibration task and a valve restoration task, are analyzed using the HRA methods to compare human error probabilities. Then, insights from the analysis and additional research requirements are discussed in this paper.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

INVESTIGATION OF HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR ANALYZING PRE-INITIATORS

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accuracy of predictions made by machine learned models for biocrude yields obtained from hydrothermal liquefaction of organic wastes

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) has potential for converting abundant wet organic wastes into renewable fuels. Because HTL consists of a complex reaction network, deterministic, physics-based prediction of its biocrude yield is prohibitively difficult. Data-driven methods provide an alternative to the physics-based approach; however, rigorous testing must be performed to ensure the accuracy of predictions made by data-driven methods. To this end, a data set was assembled consisting of 570 data points appearing in the open literature. The data set was divided into training, validation, and test sub-sets and used for evaluating different machine learning regression approaches to predict biocrude yield. Among the tested algorithms, Random Forest and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) predicted biocrude yields in a test set that had not been used for training with the greatest accuracy, with root mean square errors (RMSE) of 8.34 and 8.57, respectively. Further refinement of the Random Forest model reduced its RMSE to 8.07. In comparison, predictions of a series of literature models resulted in RMSE ranging from 9.16 in the most accurate case to 27.6 in the least accurate; most literature models yielded RMSE values > 10. Using biocrude yield predictions from the most accurate Random Forest model and a probabilistic economic analysis found that the model accuracy is sufficient to prioritize allocation of resources based on projected minimum fuel selling price. In our report the models and analysis represent a major advance in the ability to use readily available data to predict biocrude yields on new feedstocks that have not previously been studied.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Virtual node graph neural network for full phonon prediction

Understanding the structure-property relationship is crucial for designing materials with desired properties. The past few years have witnessed remarkable progress in machine-learning methods for this connection. However, substantial challenges remain, including the generalizability of models and prediction of properties with materials-dependent output dimensions. Here we present the virtual node graph neural network to address the challenges. By developing three virtual node approaches, we achieve Γ-phonon spectra and full phonon dispersion prediction from atomic coordinates. We show that, compared with the machine-learning interatomic potentials, our approach achieves orders-of-magnitude-higher efficiency with comparable to better accuracy. This allows us to generate databases for Γ-phonon containing over 146,000 materials and phonon band structures of zeolites. Additionally, our work provides an avenue for rapid and high-quality prediction of phonon band structures enabling materials design with desired phonon properties. The virtual node method also provides a generic method for machine-learning design with a high level of flexibility. In this study, the authors present a virtual node graph neural network to enable the prediction of material properties with variable output dimensions. This method offers fast and accurate predictions of phonon band structures in complex solids.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Creep in multi-principal element materials –– A review

The ongoing push towards enhanced energy efficiency and reduced emissions has necessitated the creation of materials with superior performance, especially under extreme conditions. Modern industries, such as aerospace, energy production, and nuclear power, rely heavily on materials that can withstand elevated temperatures without compromising structural integrity. At these heightened temperatures, materials, even when subjected to mechanical stresses well below their yield strength, may experience slow deformation leading to eventual rupture — a phenomenon known as creep. With the expansive design space that comes with the high entropy concept and their reported excellent high temperature strength, multi-principal element materials (MPEMs) have attracted interest in the scientific community for high-temperature applications. Here, this review offers a comprehensive examination of existing studies on creep in MPEMs, which includes multi-principal element−alloys, −bulk metallic glasses, −ceramics, and −superalloys, comparing published findings on MPEMs with pure elements, traditional alloys, bulk metallic glasses, and superalloys. The sub-topics covered include a comparison among different creep-testing methods, creep mechanisms, creep exponents, creep strain rates, activation volume, and creep-activation energy. Modeling efforts for predicting creep behavior of MPEMs are also reviewed. Methods for improving creep resistance by performing heat treatments and/or modifying microstructures are discussed. Overall, the current state of MPEMs has not yet surpassed the creep performance of commercial alloys. Finally, directions for future efforts are suggested, such as experimenting in various controlled environments, expanding the number of compositions tested, exploring advanced manufacturing techniques, and using machine-learning to predict creep properties based on compositions and microstructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗