Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “numerical errors”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

1,065 records · Page 60

TDCOSMO VIII. A key test of systematics in the hierarchical method of time-delay cosmography

The largest source of systematic errors in the time-delay cosmography method likely arises from the lens model mass distribution, where an inaccurate choice of model could in principle bias the value of $H$ 0 . A Bayesian hierarchical framework has been proposed which combines lens systems with kinematic data, constraining the mass profile shape at a population level. The framework has been previously validated using a small sample of lensing galaxies drawn from hydro-simulations. The goal of this work is to expand the validation to a more general set of lenses consistent with observed systems, as well as confirm the capacity of the method to combine two lens populations: one which has time delay information and one which lacks time delays and has systematically different image radii. For this purpose, we generated samples of analytic lens mass distributions made of baryons+dark matter and fit the subsequent mock images with standard power-law models. Corresponding kinematics data were also emulated. The hierarchical framework applied to an ensemble of time-delay lenses allowed us to correct the $H$ 0 bias associated with model choice to find $H$ 0 within 1.5σ of the fiducial value. We then combined this set with a sample of corresponding lens systems which have no time delays and have a source at lower $z$, resulting in a systematically smaller image radius relative to their effective radius. The hierarchical framework has successfully accounted for this effect, recovering a value of $H$ 0 which is both more precise (σ ~ 2%) and more accurate (0.7% median offset) than the time-delay set alone. This result confirms that non-time-delay lenses can nonetheless contribute valuable constraining power to the determination of $H$ 0 via their kinematic constraints, assuming they come from the same global population as the time-delay set.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗