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DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Based Metamodel for Faster Life Cycle Assessment of Large Portfolio of Buildings

Managing a large portfolio of buildings involves decisions on reuse, retrofit, renovation, rehabilitation, and new construction, influenced by trade-offs between performance metrics such as cost, time, and operational flexibility over the building's life cycle. Traditional life cycle assessment tools for evaluating these metrics can be labor- and compute-intensive, requiring extensive data and modeling for each building. Metamodels (or surrogate models) using machine learning have been explored as faster alternatives, but training these models has been hindered by the limited availability of comprehensive data on key life cycle metrics. Recent advancements in machine learning, particularly deep learning techniques like zero-shot and few-shot learning, allow models to learn from sparse or limited data. We propose a machine learning-based metamodel that leverages these techniques for rapid estimation of key building life cycle metrics. This presentation will cover the model architecture, data collection, training, and validation processes, along with an ongoing case study applied to a large portfolio of buildings. We will discuss the model's performance in terms of accuracy, compute time, limitations, and its potential for expanding to additional life cycle metrics. This data-driven approach offers a promising direction for the rapid evaluation of large building portfolios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1971

Sound propagation and absorption in foam - A distributed parameter model.

Liquid-base foams are highly effective sound absorbers. A better understanding of the mechanisms of sound absorption in foams was sought by exploration of a mathematical model of bubble pulsation and coupling and the development of a distributed-parameter mechanical analog. A solution by electric-circuit analogy was thus obtained and transmission-line theory was used to relate the physical properties of the foams to the characteristic impedance and propagation constants of the analog transmission line. Comparison of measured physical properties of the foam with values obtained from measured acoustic impedance and propagation constants and the transmission-line theory showed good agreement. We may therefore conclude that the sound propagation and absorption mechanisms in foam are accurately described by the resonant response of individual bubbles coupled to neighboring bubbles.

Manson, L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spatial Transferability of Machine Learning Based Volume Estimation Models

High-quality traffic volume data is essential for efficient transportation planning and operations. However, such high-quality data is expensive to collect, owing primarily to the high capital cost of installing and maintaining continuous counting stations (CCSs). Recent availability of probe-based vehicle data offers a cost-effective solution for increasing the observability of traffic volumes. However, having ample ground truth traffic data is a prerequisite for developing robust volume estimation models. Though this might not be a big issue in many states, states with scarce CCS data might be able to benefit from robust volume estimation models developed in (adjacent) data-rich states. While there is a reasonable amount of spatial transferability research in the transportation domain, there is a dearth of knowledge on the spatial transferability of probe-based volume estimation models. To address this gap, this paper explores spatial transferability of volume estimation models developed from data in three states (Colorado, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania). Results indicate that it is extremely important to maintain temporal consistency when attempting spatial transferability of volume estimation models. It was also found that models trained on regions with lower peak traffic volumes will limit the performance of models transferred to states with higher peak hourly traffic volumes. Corroborating findings from existing spatial transferability research on other topics, it was found that a meta-model (developed using data from multiple states) performs better than volume estimation models developed within any one of the states.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards robust surrogate models: Benchmarking machine learning approaches to expediting phase field simulations of brittle fracture

Data-driven approaches have the potential to make modeling complex, nonlinear physical phenomena significantly more computationally tractable. For example, computational modeling of fracture is a core challenge where machine learning techniques have the potential to provide a much needed speedup that would enable progress in areas such as multi-scale modeling and uncertainty quantification. Currently, phase field modeling (PFM) of fracture is one such approach that offers a convenient variational formulation to model crack nucleation, branching and propagation. To date, machine learning techniques have shown promise in approximating PFM simulations. While standard fracture benchmarks represent realistic scenarios frequently observed in practice, they typically do not provide sufficiently challenging tests for data-driven methods. Here, to address this gap, we introduce a challenging dataset based on PFM simulations designed to benchmark and advance ML methods for fracture modeling. This dataset includes three energy decomposition methods, two boundary conditions, and 1000 random initial crack configurations for a total of 6000 simulations. Each sample contains 100 time steps capturing the temporal evolution of the crack field. Alongside this dataset, we also implement and evaluate Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINN), Fourier Neural Operators (FNO), and UNet models as baselines, and explore the impact of ensembling strategies on prediction accuracy. With this combination of our dataset and baseline models drawn from the literature we aim to provide a standardized and challenging benchmark for evaluating machine learning approaches to solid mechanics. Our results highlight both the promise and limitations of popular current models, and demonstrate the utility of this dataset as a testbed for advancing machine learning in fracture mechanics research.

Benchmark dataset↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fast Machine Learning for Quantum Control of Microwave Qudits on Edge Hardware

Quantum optimal control is a promising approach to improve the accuracy of quantum gates, but it relies on complex algorithms to determine the best control settings. CPU or GPU-based approaches often have delays that are too long to be applied in practice. It is paramount to have systems with extremely low delays to quickly and with high fidelity adjust quantum hardware settings, where fidelity is defined as overlap with a target quantum state. Here, we utilize machine learning (ML) models to determine control-pulse parameters for preparing Selective Number-dependent Arbitrary Phase (SNAP) gates in microwave cavity qudits, which are multi-level quantum systems that serve as elementary computation units for quantum computing. The methodology involves data generation using classical optimization techniques, ML model development, design space exploration, and quantization for hardware implementation. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach, with optimized models achieving low gate trace infidelity near $10^{-3}$ and efficient utilization of programmable logic resources.

Sanders, Flor [Columbia U.]↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mass Modeling of NEP Power Conversion Concepts for Human Mars Exploration

The specific mass (mass per unit of electric power output) of an NEP power conversion system is an important metric for the performance and feasibility of a crewed NEP vehicle. This work explores a component level buildup of the specific mass for a crewed NEP vehicle. The buildup is highly parametric and avoids being tied to specific technologies where practical. This allows the specific mass to be calculated for a variety of assumptions and operating conditions and be used to optimize particular design variables or compare different system configurations. The values of specific mass are dependent on assumptions with significant uncertainty; comparison between cases and trends observed in the models are the main goal of the work presented here. To demonstrate the level of insight this type of modeling can provide, the impacts of compressor inlet temperature, turbine inlet temperature, and radiator pressure drop on specific mass are explored. In addition, the specific mass can be used to assess the benefit of separating the radiator and reactor loop from the power conversion cycle.

nep↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mass Modeling of NEP Power Conversion Concepts for Human Mars Exploration

NEP↗

NASA NTRS2006

Verification of Autonomous Systems for Space Applications

Autonomous software, especially if it is based on model, can play an important role in future space applications. For example, it can help streamline ground operations, or, assist in autonomous rendezvous and docking operations, or even, help recover from problems (e.g., planners can be used to explore the space of recovery actions for a power subsystem and implement a solution without (or with minimal) human intervention). In general, the exploration capabilities of model-based systems give them great flexibility. Unfortunately, it also makes them unpredictable to our human eyes, both in terms of their execution and their verification. The traditional verification techniques are inadequate for these systems since they are mostly based on testing, which implies a very limited exploration of their behavioral space. In our work, we explore how advanced V&V techniques, such as static analysis, model checking, and compositional verification, can be used to gain trust in model-based systems. We also describe how synthesis can be used in the context of system reconfiguration and in the context of verification.

Brat, G.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extending SST vanadis to Add SIMT Functional Units

Sandia National Laboratories is currently investigating scalable architectural simulation capabilities, with a focus on simulating and evaluating highly scalable supercomputers for high-performance computing applications. This exploration is driven by the shift toward more specialized forms of compute and the need for a more diverse set of accurate models. This project will explore the use of General-Purpose Graphical Processing Units (GPGPUs) in high-performance computing using both physical systems and new simulator models – traditional GPUs as well as tightly-coupled SIMT accelerators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2006

NASA's M and S Accreditation Process Plan and Specification for Space Exploration

NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) is implementing a management approach for modeling and simulation (M&S) that will provide decision-makers information on the model's fidelity, credibility, and quality. This information will allow the decision-maker to understand the risks involved in using a model's results in the decision-making process. This presentation will discuss NASA's overall approach to achieving formal accreditation of its models or simulations supporting space exploration. The development of a formal Accreditation Plan is a key component in the preliminary activities for modeling and simulation (M&S) assessment. This presentation will describe NASA's process for identifying risks associated with M&S use and the associated M&S assessments that will dictate the level of data certification and M&S verification and validation (V&V) activities required to support the decision-making process. The M&S Accreditation Plan and Report templates for ESMD will also be illustrated.

O'Neil, David↗

DOE OSTI2024

Water foraging with dynamic roots in E3SM; The role of roots in terrestrial ecosystem memory on intermediate timescales (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems can show sustained responses to stress events that may last for years after the initial perturbation. This phenomenon is referred to as legacy or memory and it emerges from a set of ecosystem processes that are poorly captured by Earth System and Land Surface Models. Consequently, these models struggle to predict the impact that extreme climate events have on surface energy, carbon and hydrological exchange once a stressor such as drought has relaxed or in response to repeated exposure to stress. In this project, we set out to test how the addition of dynamic root profiles in land surface models impact the capacity for Earth System Models, such as the Department of Energy’s E3SM, to capture realistic legacy effects. Observations have shown that vegetation shifts their root profiles during stress events to forage for water and these altered root profiles may take years to relax back to the initial state. We hypothesized that the alteration of the belowground root structures may be a source of terrestrial ecosystem legacy that is missing from models. To test this idea we undertook three core activities. (1) We developed a global-scale analysis of the impact of dynamic roots on ecosystem legacy building from a recently developed dynamic root module. (2) We developed new root dynamics in the DOE’s Energy Land Model (ELM) that allowed not only root profiles to shift their profile but also simultaneously alter carbon allocation to fine root pools. We then tested the impact of these new dynamics with intensive sensitivity analysis at four long-term AmeriFlux sites. (3) We undertook detailed isotopic analysis of tree rings from these AmeriFlux sites to assess ecophysiological and ecohydrological legacy to stress events that can be used to benchmark the sensitivity experiments with ELM. From these core activities, we report the following key findings. Firstly, on a global scale, the addition of dynamic roots led to chronically water-stressed ecosystems recovering faster to climate stress while wetter ecosystem showed enhanced legacy. This is because across ecosystems, stress events were almost universally associated with water shortages that led to the development of deeper root profiles. These deeper root profiles proved beneficial for recovery from drought stress. While the root dynamics did not universally improve the modeled representation of legacy it showed complex transient dynamics that emerge from the addition of dynamic roots. Secondly, the sensitivity analysis illustrated long term shifts in rooting depths away from the prescribed default profile suggesting that initializing of root profiles could benefit from spin-up simulations that converge on locally optimized root profiles. In addition, by enabling dynamic allocation some of the sites predicted unrealistically low allocation to roots (and high allocation to leaves). While these changes did not dramatically alter modeled gross primary productivity, they illustrated that without more sophisticated root processes in models, there is little penalty to dramatically disinvest in roots. Thirdly, the isotopic analysis of tree rings showed highly distinct legacy responses across species and sites. For example, T. canadensis showed reduced transpiration the year after stress events illustrated by sustained elevated $\delta^{18}$O. In contrast, A saccharum displayed elevated $\delta^{13}$C associated with reduced stomatal conductance in response to the previous years’ stress event. These geochemical signatures of legacy were present despite tree growth returning to normal the year after the stress. The results show the importance of species-level dynamics in legacy that are absent in modeling that assumes common traits within plant functional types. In summary, the work here established new avenues to explore root dynamics in models while illustrating how additional root processes are needed before dynamic carbon allocation can be implemented. Lastly, this project provided mentorship to a postdoctoral fellow, training for an early career scientist and multiple undergraduate students recruited from a minority serving institution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Idealized Simulations of the Tropical Climate and Variability in the Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM): Radiative-Convective Equilibrium

To explore the interactions among column processes in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), the single-column version of CAM (SCAM) is integrated for 1000 days in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) with tropical values of boundary conditions, spanning a parameter or configuration space of model physics versions (v5 vs. v6), vertical resolution (standard and 60 levels), sea surface temperature (SST), and some interpretation-driven experiments. The simulated time-mean climate is reasonable, near observations and RCE of a cyclic cloud-resolving model. Updraft detrainment in the deep convection scheme produces distinctive grid-scale structures in humidity and cloud, which also interact with radiative transfer processes. These grid artifacts average out in multi-column RCE results reported elsewhere, illustrating the nuts-and-bolts interpretability that SCAM adds to the hierarchy of model configurations. Multi-day oscillations of precipitation arise from descent of warm convection-capping layers starting near the tropopause, eventually reset by a burst of convective deepening. Experiments reveal how these oscillations depend critically on an internal parameter that controls the number of neutral buoyancy levels allowed for determining cloud top and computing dilute convective available potential energy in the deep convection scheme, and merely modified a little by disabling cloud-base radiation (heating of cloud base). This strong dependence of transient behavior in 1D on this parameter will be tested in the second part of this work, in which SCAM is coupled to a parameterized dynamics of two-dimensional, linearized gravity wave, and in the 3D simulations in future study.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS2017

The dependence of the oceans MOC on mesoscale eddy diffusivities: A model study

The dependence of the depth and strength of the ocean's global meridional overturning cells (MOC) on the specification of mesoscale eddy diffusivity (K) is explored in two ocean models. The GISS and MIT ocean models are driven by the same prescribed forcing fields, configured in similar ways, spun up to equilibrium for a range of K 's and the resulting MOCs mapped and documented. Scaling laws implicit in modern theories of the MOC are used to rationalize the results. In all calculations the K used in the computation of eddy-induced circulation and that used in the representation of eddy stirring along neutral surfaces, is set to the same value but is changed across experiments. We are able to connect changes in the strength and depth of the Atlantic MOC, the southern ocean upwelling MOC, and the deep cell emanating from Antarctica, to changes in K.

Global ocean↗

NASA NTRS1994

Cosmic background radiation anisotropy in an open inflation, cold dark matter cosmogony

We compute the cosmic background radiation anisotropy, produced by energy-density fluctuations generated during an early epoch of inflation, in an open cosmological model based on the cold dark matter scenario. At Omega(sub 0) is approximately 0.3-0.4, the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) normalized open model appears to be consistent with most observations.

Kamionkowski, Marc↗

NASA NTRS2016

Traffic Modeling for Deep Space Network in the Human Mars Exploration Era

In this article we describe the analysis and simulation effort of the end-to-end traffic flow for the Deep Space Network (DSN) in the Human Exploration Era, when DSN will provide communication and navigation services for human missions to distant celestial objects like the Moon, asteroids, and Mars. Using the network traffic derived for the 30-day period within July/August 2039 from the Space Communications Mission Model (SCMM), we simulate the bandwidths of the ground links and the buffer profiles of the network nodes. We also use a 2-state Markov scheme that models the store-and-forward mechanism that regulates the ground network traffic. The network traffic modeling and simulation generates ground bandwidth and buffer statistics, which in turn are used to formulate the future DSN ground network bandwidth and storage requirements.

Cheung, Kar-ming↗

DOE OSTI2020

Constraining the Dense Matter Equation of State with Joint Analysis of NICER and LIGO/Virgo Measurements

The Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer collaboration recently published a joint estimate of the mass and the radius of PSR J0030+0451, derived via X-ray pulse-profile modeling. Raaijmakers et al. explored the implications of this measurement for the dense matter equation of state (EOS) using two parameterizations of the high-density EOS: a piecewise-polytropic model, and a model based on the speed of sound in neutron stars (NSs). In this work we obtain further constraints on the EOS following this approach, but we also include information about the tidal deformability of NSs from the gravitational wave signal of the compact binary merger GW170817. Further, we compare the constraints on the EOS to those set by the recent measurement of a 2.14 Me pulsar, included as a likelihood function approximated by a Gaussian, and find a small increase in information gain. To show the flexibility of our method, we also explore the possibility that GW170817 was a NS–black hole merger, which yields weaker constraints on the EOS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gradient sensing via cell communication

Experimental evidence lends support to the conjecture that cell-to-cell communication plays a role in the gradient sensing of chemical species by certain chains of cells. Models have been formulated to explore this idea. For cells with no identifiable sensing structure, Mugler et al. [Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. (U.S.A.) 113, E689 (2016)] have defined a particular local excitation, global inhibition (LEGI) model that pits nearest-neighbor communication against local reactions in a noisy environment to suggest how this sensing capability might arise in a physical system. In this study, we generalize the nearest-neighbor communication mechanism in the aforementioned LEGI model in order to explore the extent to which the gradient sensing characteristics depend on the parametrization of the communication itself, as well as on the cell size, the radius of influence of neighboring cells, and the influence of the background noise. Using our generalization and a collection of particular candidate communication models, we find that the precision of gradient sensing is indeed sensitive to the particular communication model, and we derive physical and analytic explanations for these results. The framework established and the associated results should prove useful in understanding the appropriateness of particular cell-to-cell communication models in gradient sensing studies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1988

Modulated mass-transfer model for superhumps in SU Ursae Majoris stars

The response of a circular accretion disk to rapid modulation of the mass-transfer rate into the disk is explored in order to model superhumps in SU UMa stars. It is proposed that periodically enhanced flow may disrupt or heat up the outer disk and produce the dips noted just before the superhump peaks. The elliptical accretion-disk model with extended vertical disk structure can account for the observed characteristics of superhumps in these stars.

Mineshige, Shin↗