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Summer Proceedings 2019

The Computer Science Research Institute (CSRI) brings university faculty and students to Sandia for focused collaborative research on Department of Energy (DOE) computer and computational science problems. The institute provides an opportunity for university researchers to learn about problems in computer and computational science at DOE laboratories. Participants conduct leading-edge research, interact with scientists and engineers at the laboratories, and help transfer results of their research to programs at the labs. Some specific CSRI research interest areas are: scalable solvers, optimization, adaptivity and mesh refinement, graph-based, discrete, and combinatorial algorithms, uncertainty estimation, mesh generation, dynamic load-balancing, virus and other malicious-code defense, visualization, scalable cluster computers and heterogeneous computers, data-intensive computing, environments for scalable computing, parallel input/output, advanced architectures, and theoretical computer science. The CSRI Summer Program includes the organization of a weekly seminar series and the publication of this summer proceedings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

2021 Summer Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Region

This report is an update to the NETL report on the same topic that examined the potential system performance of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system during the summer of 2020. Anticipated reserve margins in ERCOT have risen year-over-year from the 10.7 percent reported in ERCOT’s Final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for Summer 2020 to 15.7 percent for Summer 2021 in ERCOT’s Capacity, Demand and Reserves [CDR] report published in December 2020 and 2021 Summer Preliminary SARA published in March 2021. Using data from ERCOT’s 2021 Summer SARA, CDR, and historical performance data, six economic dispatch scenarios using PROMOD were developed to assess the risk to ERCOT of a load shedding event for Summer 2021. The results suggest that ERCOT could make it through the summer season without a loss of load event, as long as the weather remains normal. However, through a combination of scenarios, including increased demand, increased forced outages, and low wind output, ERCOT is likely to find itself operating in emergency conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DSO+T: Integrated System Simulation (DSO+T Study: Volume 2)

This report summarizes an integrated co-simulation model used by the Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study to represent an electrical generation, delivery, and end-load systems for the purposes of assessing the viability and value proposition of transactive energy coordination of flexible assets versus a business-as-usual case. The integrated co-simulation model includes the bulk generation and transmission system, including the day-ahead and real-time scheduling and dispatch of thermal generators. Forty distribution system operators were modelled in detail, including tens of thousands of residential and commercial buildings and their flexible end-loads. These included HVAC systems, residential water heaters, electric vehicles, and stationary, behind-the-meter, batteries. Both wholesale market and end-load results for the business-as-usual case are presented and compared to actual ERCOT system data to assess the accuracy and representativeness of the resulting model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Reliability and Resiliency in South Asia's Power Sector - Pathways for Research, Modeling, and Implementation

Reliability and resilience are the core principles of power system planning and operations around the world. Power systems in South Asia are transforming with increasing penetration of clean energy generation resources, emerging technologies, increasing electricity demand and electrification. At the same time, these power systems are facing challenges posed by extreme weather events and climate change. All these factors would add furthermore importance to the reliability and resilience of future power systems in South Asia. This has motivated us to better understand the country specific challenges and chalk out the pathways for research, modelling and implementation in South Asia. Our research, experience in the region and feedback from key stakeholders indicate following as the key areas where more work is needed to improve reliability and resilience of power systems in the region: Renewable energy Data for power system studies, New Tools and Studies, Resilience Planning, Resource Adequacy, Advanced RE Forecasting, Cybersecurity, Load Forecasting, and Coordinated Planning and Operations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Synthetic Sling Failure: Evaluations and Recommendations

The information and evaluations provided in this report were compiled to address the recurring problem of synthetic sling failure. As safety is the number one priority in all work aspects, a solution must be devised to prevent accidents from occurring. In revision 0, a total of thirteen cases regarding synthetic sling failure were evaluated in order to determine their causes, effects, and preventative measures. From the collected data, it was found that all cases in which the synthetic sling contacted the edge of its load resulted in sling failure. Revision 1 provides updated synthetic fling failures between the years of 2009 revision 0 and 2021 revision 1.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Long Term Damage Testing (NREL)

DOE's Regional Test Center program has fielded several strings of PV modules as part of their Long Term Testing program. Some of these modules have been installed since 2016 and have been exposed to severe weather events. A key to developing long lifespans for PV modules (in excess of 30 years) is understanding how damage and defects develop, propagate and progress. Researchers at the NREL Regional Test Center have started developing testing procedures and analysis tools in order to characterize modules in a controlled manner with the goal of understanding how damage spreads under normal operations. Characterization methods include EL and IR imaging, outdoor and indoor IV curves, and long term exposure monitoring. Modules to be evaluated will be chosen based on severity of defect, ability to track changes in defect and space requirements. The samples will be loaded at maximum power using grid-tied inverters or other means. Gathering and reporting on this data may help engineers and scientists design for damage and improve long-term performance.

crack damage↗

Bichromatic Wave Selection for Validation of the Difference-Frequency Transfer Function for the OC6 Validation Campaign: Preprint

The focus of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continuation, with Correlation and unCertainity (OC6) project, which operates under the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Task 30, is to refine the accuracy of engineering tools used to design offshore wind turbines. In support of this work, a new validation campaign is being developed that seeks to better understand the nonlinear wave loading that excites floating wind systems at their low-frequency, rigid-body modes in surge and pitch. The validation data will be used in a three-way validation between simplified engineering tools and higher-fidelity tools, such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Irregular wave spectrums, which are traditionally used to examine the nonlinear wave interaction with offshore structures, are too computationally expensive to be simulated in CFD tools, and so bichromatic wave cases will be used instead. This paper reviews the process used to choose the bichromatic wave pairs to be used in the campaign to validate the second-order difference-frequency quadratic and potential loads at the surge and pitch natural frequencies of a floating semisubmersible.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Technology Integration to Gain Commercial Efficiency for the Urban Goods Delivery System, Meet Future Demand for City Passenger and Delivery Load/Unload Spaces, and Reduce Energy Consumption

This three-year project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Office has the potential to radically improve the urban freight system in ways that help both the public and private sectors. Working from 2018-2021, project researchers at the University of Washington’s Urban Freight Lab and collaborators at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory have produced key data, tested technologies in complex urban settings, developed a prototype parking availability app, and helped close major knowledge gaps. All the fruits of this project can be harnessed to help cities better understand, support and actively manage truck load/unload operations and their urban freight transport infrastructure. Project learnings and tools can be used to help make goods delivery firms more efficient by reducing miles traveled and the time it takes to complete deliveries, benefitting businesses and residents who rely on the urban freight system for supplies of goods. And, ultimately, these project learnings and tools can be used to make cities more livable by minimizing wasted travel, which, in turn, contributes to reductions in fuel consumption and emissions. Cities today are challenged to effectively and efficiently manage their infrastructure to absorb the impacts of ever-increasing e-commerce-fueled delivery demand. All delivery trucks need to park somewhere to unload and load. Yet today’s delivery drivers have no visibility on available parking until they arrive at a site, which may be full. That means they can wind up cruising for parking, which wastes time and fuel and contributes to congestion. Once drivers do find parking, the faster they can unload at the spot, the faster they free up space for other drivers, helping others avoid circling for parking. This makes the parking space—and thus the greater load/unload network—more productive. To this end, the research team successfully met the project’s three goals, developing and piloting strategies and technologies to: 1. Reduce parking-seeking behavior in the study area by 20%; 2. Reduce parcel truck dwell time (the time a truck spends in a spot to load/unload) in the study area by 30%; 3. Increase curb space, alley space and private loading bay occupancy rates in the study area. The research team met these goals by creating and piloting on Seattle streets OpenPark, a first-of-its-kind real-time and forecasting curb parking app customized for commercial delivery drivers—giving drivers the “missing link” in their commonly used routing tools that tell them how best to get to delivery locations, but not what parking is available to use when they get there. Installing in-ground sensors on commercial vehicle load zones (CVLZs) and passenger load zones (PLZs) in the 10-block study area in Seattle’s downtown neighbourhood of Belltown let researchers glean real-time curb parking data. The research team also met project goals by piloting three parcel lockers in public and private spaces open to any delivery carrier, creating a consolidated delivery hub that lets drivers complete deliveries faster and spend less time parked. Researchers collected and analysed data to produce the first empirical, robust, statistically significant results as to the impact of the lockers, and app, on on-the-ground operations. In addition to collecting and analyzing sensor and other real-time and historical data, researchers rode along with delivery drivers to confirm real-world routing and parking behavior. Researchers also surveyed building managers on their private loading bay operations to understand how to boost usage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Stochastic Adaptive Droop Control in Frequency Regulation of Power Systems With Intermittent Generators

Modern power systems (MPSs), including microgrids (MGs), are increasingly incorporating multiple renewable energy sources (RESs) such as wind and solar power, as well as battery storage and controllable loads. While environmentally beneficial, these sources pose challenges for control and management due to their intermittent and stochastic nature, especially in maintaining frequency stability with multiple interconnected generators of varying capacities. Traditional droop control methods are effective in systems with generators that are dispatchable and have fixed generation capacities, but they fall short when applied to systems with RESs, where generation capacities are dynamic and affected by unpredictable environmental conditions. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel stochastic adaptive droop control (SADC) method for load frequency control (LFC). The proposed method adapts droop coefficients in real time, based on the measured stochastic data of power generation capacities, enabling more effective frequency regulation in systems with variable and intermittent power generation. Unlike traditional adaptive control methods, which assume constant or slowly-varying system parameters, this approach accounts for stochastic processes by modeling them as Markov chains, enabling robust performance under highly dynamic and unpredictable conditions. The key contributions of this work include the development of real-time droop coefficient adaptation algorithms, derivation of their stability and convergence properties, and the demonstration of the advantages of the method through simulations. Case studies highlight the improved performance of frequency regulation, particularly in addressing the impact of stochastic weather conditions and the benefits of reducing dependence on battery reserves in dealing with intermittency of RESs. Finally, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical foundations of the method, as well as practical implementation insights for future power systems with high penetration of RESs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A method for modeling battery-temperature-aware EV power profiles utilizing Next-Gen Profile data

With the expected increase in the number of electric vehicles (EVs) on the road in the coming years, it is important that analysis tools are capable of modeling and predicting the expected load on the power grid due to both individual EV charging sessions as well as large populations of vehicles. To do this accurately, the power profile of an EV charge session must be accurately modeled, including for scenarios where the temperature is above or below the ideal, and also take into account the nuances of manufacturer charging preferences. This paper introduces a method that utilizes the data in the Next-Gen Profile (NGP) data collection project to build a model of EV charging that takes into account the variations in charging power that occur due to off-nominal battery temperature and manufacturer preferences that limit power due to cold temperatures or high battery state-of-charge.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Quantifying the Influence of Size, Shape, and Density of Microplastics on Their Transport Modes: A Modeling Approach

Microplastics (MPs) pose significant risks to marine ecosystems and human health, necessitating accurate predictions of their distributions in aquatic environments for effective risk mitigation. However, understanding MP transport dynamics is challenging because of the inadequate representation of MP characteristics such as size, shape, and density in numerical models. Further, the accuracy of the MP vertical profiles in existing models has not been thoroughly validated. Thus, we developed an MP transport model within the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model framework (FVCOM-MP) by integrating MP characteristics. We validated FVCOM-MP against experimental and analytical data, focusing on various MP transport modes and transitions. FVCOM-MP successfully replicates MP profiles in different transport modes, including the bedload, surface-load, suspended-load, and mixed-load modes. Additionally, we introduce phase diagrams for classifying MP transport modes based on particle characteristics, enhancing our understanding of MP dynamics in aquatic systems. The transport modes for a number of real-world MP particles, including fishing line, plastic bag/bottle fragments, synthetic fibers, tire wear particles, polyvinyl chloride and expanded polystyrene pellets, were analyzed with these phase diagrams.

Microplastic transport, Settling velocity, Rising ↗

Small Nuclear Reactors for Maritime Ports

Maritime ports are entering a period of sharply rising electricity demand as operations are electrified, shore power adoption grows, and energy-intensive industries expand near ports. This report evaluates the feasibility of small nuclear reactors at U.S. ports, which could offer stable baseload power and reduced dependence on regional grids. The report describes the current state of advanced reactor technologies and other factors important for future deployment such as safety and operations, siting requirements, regulatory environments and policy, and other co-benefit considerations. A structured evaluation across a diverse group of U.S. ports highlights the wide variation in feasibility. Fifteen ports were analyzed through port interviews and data collection to assess the port-specific conditions that most impact advanced reactor deployment. The analysis found that the most feasible ports for deployment have favorable geotechnical stability, supportive regulatory environments, and substantial energy loads in a grid-constrained environment. Additionally, an initial reactor size matching was done for the ports based on their reported energy consumption across different modes of operation. However, further analysis and detailed data will be required in the future to determine the optimal reactor-port matching. The economic viability to adopt this technology will be dictated by competitive cost of nuclear-generated electricity compared to other alternatives. Overall, small nuclear reactors present a promising but highly site-dependent pathway for ports seeking resilient, high-capacity energy solutions that support future energy demands. This report identifies key areas for future research and highlights ports that warrant further evaluation to assess the viability of small nuclear reactor implementation. By establishing these priorities, the analysis provides support for the development of informed strategies for potential advanced nuclear technology deployment. The inclusion of ports in this report does not imply their endorsement of nuclear energy generation, and the authors are grateful for the information, expertise, and perspectives they contributed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The decay of HIV under anti-retroviral therapy is biphasic even in humanized mice with just T cells

HIV-1 plasma viral load decays in a biphasic manner during antiretroviral therapy (ART). It was hypothesized that this is due to infection of different cell types, namely CD4+ T cells and macrophages. We studied this possibility directly by modeling the decay of HIV-1 in humanized mice. We utilized previously published data from humanized T-cell only mice (TOM) and myeloid-only mice (MOM) infected with HIV-1 and treated with a potent ART regimen. Viral load decay dynamics were modeled using either a single or a biexponential decay fitted using nonlinear mixed effects techniques. Fits were compared using the corrected Bayesian information criterion (BICc). In TOM, the biphasic model was significantly better than a single-phase decay model (ΔBICc ≈ 16) despite additional parameters. In MOM, the biphasic decay was statistically better, but there was substantial uncertainty because the virus goes below detection very fast. The first-phase half-life was consistent between groups (1.2 days in MOM and 1.3 days in TOM) and similar to the half-life estimated in human infection. The second-phase decay in these mice was minimal likely due to low initial viral loads. Additional analyses with mice containing both CD4+ T cells and macrophages or X4-tropic virus-infected MOM mice confirmed the biphasic pattern, demonstrating the robustness of this result. The biphasic decline in HIV-1 occurs, even with only CD4+ T cells, refuting the hypothesis that distinct cell populations (CD4+ T cells and macrophages) drive each decay phase. These findings support an alternative model in which the observed dynamics arise from intrinsic properties of the viral infection lifecycle rather than from cellular compartmentalization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An Accurate and Automated Convective Vortex Detection Method for Long-Duration Infrasound Microbarometer Data

Heating of the surficial layer of the atmosphere often generates convective vortices, known as “dust devils” when they entrain visible debris. Convective vortices are common on both Earth and Mars, where they affect the climate via dust loading, contribute to wind erosion, impact the efficiency of photovoltaic systems, and potentially result in injury and property damage. However, long-duration terrestrial convective vortex activity records are rare. We have developed a high-precision and high-recall method to extract convective vortex signatures from infrasound microbarometer data streams. The techniques utilizes a wavelet-based detector to capture potential events and then a template matching system to extract the duration of the vortex. Since permanent and temporary infrasound sensors networks are present throughout the globe (many with open data), our method unlocks a vast new convective vortex dataset without requiring the deployment of specialized instrumentation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving I/O Performance for Exascale Applications through Online Data Layout Reorganization

The applications being developed within the U.S. Exascale Computing Project (ECP) to run on imminent Exascale computers will generate scientific results with unprecedented fidelity and record turn-around time. Many of these codes are based on particle-mesh methods and use advanced algorithms, especially dynamic load-balancing and mesh-refinement, to achieve high performance on Exascale machines. Yet, as such algorithms improve parallel application efficiency, they raise new challenges for I/O logic due to their irregular and dynamic data distributions. Thus, while the enormous data rates of Exascale simulations already challenge existing file system write strategies, the need for efficient read and processing of generated data introduces additional constraints on the data layout strategies that can be used when writing data to secondary storage. We review these I/O challenges and introduce two online data layout reorganization approaches for achieving good tradeoffs between read and write performance. We demonstrate the benefits of using these two approaches for the ECP particle-in-cell simulation WarpX, which serves as a motif for a large class of important Exascale applications. Here, we show that by understanding application I/O patterns and carefully designing data layouts we can increase read performance by more than 80 percent.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cesium Removal Performance Comparisons of Crystalline Silicotitanate Media Batches with Savannah River Site Waste Simulant

The Tank Closure Cesium Removal (TCCR) system uses ion exchange columns filled with Crystalline Silicotitanate (CST) media to process radioactive waste solutions for the removal of Cs137. TCCR currently focuses on dissolving Savannah River Site (SRS) Tank 10H waste (primarily sodium salt cake solids) within the tank followed by at-tank ion exchange column treatment. Plans are underway to prepare and install a second TCCR unit at SRS. Capacity and particle size differences exist between archived (IE-911) and more recently-prepared CST media batches (9120- B and 9140-B). Side-by-side comparison testing was performed to evaluate the cesium removal performance of each batch to aid in selecting the preferred CST batch and media characteristics to load into the second TCCR unit. Batch contact equilibrium and flow-through column tests have been conducted with three CST batches using an SRS Average Simulant. Simulant batch contact equilibrium cesium loading results for the three CST batches (including two lots of one batch) are provided in Table ES-1. The 35 °C data indicates that the archived IE-911 batch has a higher cesium capacity than recently-prepared CST media and that the minor TCCR CST 9120-B media lot (2099000035) has similar cesium removal performance to the major TCCR lot (2099000034). Tests conducted at 25 ºC for the archived IE-911 CST batch indicated lower cesium removal performance with this simulant batch than was observed recently with a different SRS Average Simulant batch. A dilution factor (DF) is typically utilized when modeling engineered CST media cesium loading performance to account for mass contributions from the binder material. In cases where CST performance is lower than expected, this factor includes corrections for the binder and for low performance. The ZAM (Zheng, Anthony, and Miller) Isotherm Model DF values are provided in Table ES-1 for each simulant batch contact result. DF values near 0.5 were determined for the 9120-B and 9140-B CST batch contact tests while DF values near 0.6 (20% higher) were determined for the tests with IE-911. These dilution factors are lower than recently observed with a different SRS Average Simulant batch (9140-B DF = 0.68; IE-911 DF = 1.0). Based on these results, it appears that some component in the simulant solution used for equilibrium testing may have resulted in reduced cesium loading on the CST media.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

MBARI-WEC September and October 2022 Field Data

This data is needed to simulate a model of the MBARI-WEC (Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Wave Energy Converter device) in a simulation environment (e.g. Gazebo) for 56 observation dates in the time between September and October 2022, and to compare the simulation outputs to the corresponding field data of the physical MBARI-WEC. There were 50 observations chosen in Sept and 6 observations in Oct. To help understand terms below, a summary of the system can be found at the github link in the downloads section below. The Gazebo MBARI-WEC model is also provided, should users wish to simulate using this platform. There are 4 *mat files included. ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Spectrum and Simulation Inputs: September2022_spectrum_siminputs.mat and October2022_spectrum_siminputs.mat has data needed for simulation inputs in table format. These include the ocean spectrum for an observation and operating parameters of the MBARI-WEC during that observation. They are organized as rows representing an observation and columns representing data. For example, for the September *mat there are 50 rows. The first 7 columns are Datetime, sig_waveheight, peak_period, mean_period, heaveconedoor_status, pistonpos_mean, and scale_factor: - Datetime is the date and time the observation occurred in PST - sig_waveheight is the significant wave height of the ocean spectrum during that observation in meters - peak_period is the peak period of the ocean spectrum during that observation in seconds - mean_period is the mean period of the ocean spectrum during that observation in seconds - heaveconedoor_status is the status of the heave cone doors where 0 represents the doors are open and 1 represents they are closed - pistonpos_mean is the mean position of the PTO ram (piston) in meters - scale_factor is an additional factor of 0.5 --1.4 applied to a default damping relationship The next columns are data needed to represent the ocean spectrum. First are the frequencies [Hz] labeled as "f0-f38", then the variance density [m2/Hz] labeled as "vardens0-vardens38". October2022_spectrum_siminputs.mat follows as a similar format as above, but includes a larger amount of ocean spectrum frequencies and variance density elements. ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Field data: The field data is found in MBARIWEC_septdata.mat and MBARIWEC_octdata.mat for the observations of September and October, respectively. These contain data in a struct format. The struct contains the following fields for each observation: PC_BattCurr, PC_LoadCurr, PC_RPM, PC_Voltage, SC_Range, SC_Velocity, DateTime, where: - PC_BattCurr is the current flowing to or from the onboard batteries in Amps - PC_LoadCurr is the current flowing to the load dump in Amps - PC_RPM is the electric/hydraulic motor shaft speed (directly coupled) in RPM - PC_Voltage is the bus voltage at the power converter in Volts - SC_Range is the PTO ram (piston) position in meters where 0 is fully retracted and 2.03 is fully extended - SC_Velocity is the PTO ram (piston) velocity in meters/sec - DateTime is the date and time of the sampled field data in each observation in PST - Electric Power is equal to: PC_Voltage*(PC_BattCurr + PC_LoadCurr) in Watts For example, upon loading MBARIWEC_octdata.mat, the aforementioned fields would be loaded, each with {6x1} cells for the 6 observations chosen in October. Within the first cell of e.g. SC_Range would be sampled data representing the field data of the MBARIWEC PTO piston position for say, one hour, of the first October observation. The corresponding field DateTime would...

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗