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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,081 records · Page 60
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Electronic specific heat capacities and entropies from density matrix quantum Monte Carlo using Gaussian process regression to find gradients of noisy data

In this work, we present a machine learning approach to calculating electronic specific heat capacities for a variety of benchmark molecular systems. Our models are based on data from density matrix quantum Monte Carlo, which is a stochastic method that can calculate the electronic energy at finite temperature. As these energies typically have noise, numerical derivatives of the energy can be challenging to find reliably. In order to circumvent this problem, we use Gaussian process regression to model the energy and use analytical derivatives to produce the specific heat capacity. From there, we also calculate the entropy by numerical integration. We compare our results to cubic splines and finite differences in a variety of molecules in which Hamiltonians can be diagonalized exactly with full configuration interaction. We finally apply this method to look at larger molecules where exact diagonalization is not possible and make comparisons with more approximate ways to calculate the specific heat capacity and entropy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

Real-Time Cyber-Physical False Data Attack Detection in Smart Grids Using Neural Networks

Attacks on cyber-physical systems have recently increased in frequency, impact, and publicity. In this paper, a cyber-physical false data attack detection mechanism is proposed to protect the operation of power transmission and distribution systems by automatically inferring underlying physical relationships using cross-sensor analytics in order to detect sensor failures, replay attacks, and other data integrity issues in real-time. We investigate a neural network based mechanism acting on voltage and current readings resulting from a wide variety of load conditions on the IEEE 30-bus power system standard and compare its performance with a support vector machine based mechanism. Experiments showed that 99% detection accuracy of replay attacks was achieved using the proposed neural network mechanism. More importantly, we showed that the best approach was to not create physics-based features using what we knew about the system, but rather to use a neural network to automatically learn the laws, and then use the outputs of that to build a classifier to identify whether and where data spoofing occurs. Thus, it is preferable to infer and exploit the physics using a single machine learning solution

Ferragut, Erik M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Multi-layer neural networks for robot control

Two neural learning controller designs for manipulators are considered. The first design is based on a neural inverse-dynamics system. The second is the combination of the first one with a neural adaptive state feedback system. Both types of controllers enable the manipulator to perform any given task very well after a period of training and to do other untrained tasks satisfactorily. The second design also enables the manipulator to compensate for unpredictable perturbations.

Pourboghrat, Farzad↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Model-based Approach to Controlling the ST-5 Constellation Lights-Out Using the GMSEC Message Bus and Simulink

Space Technology 5 (ST-5) is a three-satellite constellation, technology validation mission under the New Millennium Program at NASA to be launched in March 2006. One of the key technologies to be validated is a lights-out, model-based operations approach to be used for one week to control the ST-5 constellation with no manual intervention. The ground architecture features the GSFC Mission Services Evolution Center (GMSEC) middleware, which allows easy plugging in of software components and a standardized messaging protocol over a software bus. A predictive modeling tool built on MatLab's Simulink software package makes use of the GMSEC standard messaging protocol to interface to the Advanced Mission Planning System (AMPS) Scenario Scheduler which controls all activities, resource allocation and real-time re-profiling of constellation resources when non-nominal events occur. The key features of this system, which we refer to as the ST-5 Simulink system, are as follows: Original daily plan is checked to make sure that predicted resources needed are available by comparing the plan against the model. As the plan is run in real-time, the system re-profiles future activities in real-time if planned activities do not occur in the predicted timeframe or fashion. Alert messages are sent out on the GMSEC bus by the system if future predicted problems are detected. This will allow the Scenario Scheduler to correct the situation before the problem happens. The predictive model is evolved automatically over time via telemetry updates thus reducing the cost of implementing and maintaining the models by an order of magnitude from previous efforts at GSFC such as the model-based system built for MAP in the mid-1990's. This paper will describe the key features, lessons learned and implications for future missions once this system is successfully validated on-orbit in 2006.

Witt, Kenneth J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

NASA Tech Briefs, September 2013

Topics include: ISS Ammonia Leak Detection Through X-Ray Fluorescence; A System for Measuring the Sway of the Vehicle Assembly Building; Fast, High-Precision Readout Circuit for Detector Arrays; Victim Simulator for Victim Detection Radar; Hydrometeor Size Distribution Measurements by Imaging the Attenuation of a Laser Spot; Quasi-Linear Circuit; High-Speed, High-Resolution Time-to-Digital Conversion; Li-Ion Battery and Supercapacitor Hybrid Design for Long Extravehicular Activities; Ultrasonic Low-Friction Containment Plate for Thermal and Ultrasonic Stir Weld Processes; High-Powered, Ultrasonically Assisted Thermal Stir Welding; Next-Generation MKIII Lightweight HUT/Hatch Assembly; Centrifugal Sieve for Gravity-Level-Independent Size; Segregation of Granular Materials; Ion Exchange Technology Development in Support of the Urine Processor Assembly; Nickel-Graphite Composite Compliant Interface and/or Hot Shoe Material; UltraSail CubeSat Solar Sail Flight Experiment; Mechanism for Deploying a Long, Thin-Film Antenna From a Rover; Counterflow Regolith Heat Exchanger; Acquisition and Retaining Granular Samples via a Rotating Coring Bit; Very-Low-Cost, Rugged Vacuum System; Medicine Delivery Device With Integrated Sterilization and Detection; FRET-Aptamer Assays for Bone Marker Assessment, C-Telopeptide, Creatinine, and Vitamin D; Multimode Directional Coupler for Utilization of Harmonic Frequencies from TWTAs; Dual-Polarization, Multi-Frequency Antenna Array for use with Hurricane Imaging Radiometer; Complementary Barrier Infrared Detector (CBIRD) Contact Methods; Autonomous Control of Space Nuclear Reactors; High-Power, High-Speed Electro-Optic Pockels Cell Modulator; Covariance Analysis Tool (G-CAT) for Computing Ascent, Descent, and Landing Errors; Enigma Version 12; Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) Shield Ballistic Limit Analysis Program; Spitzer Telemetry Processing System; Planetary Protection Bioburden Analysis Program; Wing Leading Edge RCC Rapid Response Damage Prediction Tool (IMPACT2); ISSM: Ice Sheet System Model; Automated Loads Analysis System (ATLAS); Integrated Main Propulsion System Performance Reconstruction Process/Models. Phoenix Telemetry Processor; Contact Graph Routing Enhancements Developed in ION for DTN; GFEChutes Lo-Fi; Advanced Strategic and Tactical Relay Request Management for the Mars Relay Operations Service; Software for Generating Troposphere Corrections for InSAR Using GPS and Weather Model Data; Ionospheric Specifications for SAR Interferometry (ISSI); Implementation of a Wavefront-Sensing Algorithm; Sally Ride EarthKAM - Automated Image Geo-Referencing Using Google Earth Web Plug-In; Trade Space Specification Tool (TSST) for Rapid Mission Architecture (Version 1.2); Acoustic Emission Analysis Applet (AEAA) Software; Memory-Efficient Onboard Rock Segmentation; Advanced Multimission Operations System (ATMO); Robot Sequencing and Visualization Program (RSVP); Automating Hyperspectral Data for Rapid Response in Volcanic Emergencies; Raster-Based Approach to Solar Pressure Modeling; Space Images for NASA JPL Android Version; Kinect Engineering with Learning (KEWL); Spacecraft 3D Augmented Reality Mobile App; MPST Software: grl_pef_check; Real-Time Multimission Event Notification System for Mars Relay; SIM_EXPLORE: Software for Directed Exploration of Complex Systems; Mobile Timekeeping Application Built on Reverse-Engineered JPL Infrastructure; Advanced Query and Data Mining Capabilities for MaROS; Jettison Engineering Trajectory Tool; MPST Software: grl_suppdoc; PredGuid+A: Orion Entry Guidance Modified for Aerocapture; Planning Coverage Campaigns for Mission Design and Analysis: CLASP for DESDynl; and Space Place Prime.

Source record↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Status of the Advanced Oxygen Generation Assembly

Future Exploration missions will require an Oxygen Generation Assembly (OGA) to electrolyze water to supply oxygen for crew metabolic consumption. The system design will be based on the International Space Station (ISS) OGA but with added improvements based on lessons learned during ISS operations and technological advances since the original OGA was designed and built. The goal of these improvements will be to reduce spares mass and crew maintenance time while increasing reliability. Over the past year, the team has performed additional design reviews, testing and analysis in an effort to optimize upgrade efforts and achieve the best value that meets Exploration mission requirements. Upgrades that will be incorporated include: redesign of the electrolysis cell stack, redesign of the hydrogen dome, replacement of the hydrogen sensors, redesign of the recirculation loop deionizing bed, and incorporation of recirculation loop nitrogen purging and water flushing. The ISS OGA will be upgraded to an Advanced OGA (AOGA) configuration and its operation demonstrated in a relevant flight environment.

Kevin Takada↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP) MBSE Initiatives

NASA’s Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP) program is developing several MagicDraw SysML models to support the development of high performance Nuclear Thermal Rocket Engines (NTRE). Currently, the Demonstration Rocket for Agile Cislunar Operations (DRACO) project is aiming to perform the first ever flight demonstration of an NTRE, and NASA is developing a DRACO Insight Project Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) model to capture, define, analyze, and report on the flight and ground test system architecture, functional behavior, requirements, risks, and lessons learned. Additional models are in work for engine component trade trees, fault detection sensor coverage analysis using a Goal Function Tree (GFT) plugin, stakeholder engagement, and technology maturation projects. The GFT plugin is the Galois, Inc. Failure Recovery Instruction Generation using Automata derived from Traditional Engineering models (FRIGATE) tool. A new capability for Jira to MagicDraw data sharing using the OpenPDM collaboration platform is under development with partner Victory Solutions, Inc. to enhance risk impact analysis.

Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep inference of simulated strong lenses in ground-based surveys

The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future astronomical surveys will likely enhance the value of strong gravitational lensing as a cosmic probe of dark energy and dark matter. However, leveraging the increased statistical power of such large samples will require further development of automated lens modeling techniques. We show that deep learning and simulation-based inference (SBI) methods produce informative and reliable estimates of parameter posteriors for strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys. We present the examination and comparison of two approaches to lens parameter estimation for strong galaxy-galaxy lenses — Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). We perform inference on 1-, 5-, and 12-parameter lens models for ground-based imaging data that mimics the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that NPE outperforms BNNs, producing posterior distributions that are more accurate, precise, and well-calibrated for most parameters. For the 12-parameter NPE model, the calibration is consistently within <10% of optimal calibration for all parameters, while the BNN is rarely within 20% of optimal calibration for any of the parameters. Similarly, residuals for most of the parameters are smaller (by up to an order of magnitude) with the NPE model than the BNN model. This work takes important steps in the systematic comparison of methods for different levels of model complexity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2019

Machine learning based design space exploration for hybrid main-memory design

We develop a machine learning (ML) based design space exploration (DSE) method that builds predictive models for various responses of a hybrid main-memory system. To overcome the challenges associated with latency, capacity, and power of memory systems in future extreme-scale machines, the hybrid memory architectures are being considered in which novel non-volatile memory (NVM) systems augment the traditional DRAM. However, way before their actual design and implementation, these emerging hybrid memory systems need to be simulated and analyzed to fully understand their capabilities and limitations. As the conventional architectural-level memory simulators require significant amounts of computational costs and time, we propose to utilize ML techniques for developing various memory-response models that can instantly provide a predicted response corresponding to any new memory configuration. Specifically, in this work, we apply four supervised ML techniques to build regression models for memory latency, bandwidth, power, and total read/write responses. The training and validation data for the ML methods are generated using NVMain memory simulator for DRAM, NVM, and their hybrid combinations. We demonstrate the results of the ML based memory-DSE method in terms of the learning curve characteristics for hyperparameter tuning and the statistical error analyses of the designed predictive models.

Sen, Satyabrata↗
DOE OSTI2025

U-Surf: a global 1 km spatially continuous urban surface property dataset for kilometer-scale urban-resolving Earth system modeling

High-resolution urban climate modeling has faced substantial challenges due to the absence of a globally consistent, spatially continuous, and accurate dataset to represent the spatial heterogeneity of urban surfaces and their biophysical properties. This deficiency has long obstructed the development of urban-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) and ultra-high-resolution urban climate modeling, over large domains. Here, we present U-Surf, a first-of-its-kind 1 km resolution present-day (circa 2020) global continuous urban surface parameter dataset. Using the urban canopy model (UCM) in the Community Earth System Model as a base model for satisfying dataset requirements, U-Surf leverages the latest advances in remote sensing, machine learning, and cloud computing to provide the most relevant urban surface biophysical parameters, including radiative, morphological, and thermal properties, for UCMs at the facet and canopy level. Generated using a systematically unified workflow, U-Surf ensures internal consistency among key parameters, making it the first globally coherent urban canopy surface dataset. U-Surf significantly improves the representation of the urban land heterogeneity both within and across cities globally; provides essential, high-fidelity surface biophysical constraints to urban-resolving ESMs; enables detailed city-to-city comparisons across the globe; and supports next-generation kilometer-resolution Earth system modeling across scales. U-Surf parameters can be easily converted or adapted to various types of UCMs, such as those embedded in weather and regional climate models, as well as air quality models. The fundamental urban surface constraints provided by U-Surf can also be used as features for machine learning models and can have other broad-scale applications for socioeconomic, public health, and urban planning contexts. We expect U-Surf to advance the research frontier of urban system science, climate-sensitive urban design, and coupled human–Earth systems in the future. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11247598 (Cheng et al., 2024).

Cheng, Yifan [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaig↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Small Satellite Reliability Initiative (SSRI) Knowledge Base Tool: Update and Future Direction

NASA’s Small Satellite Reliability Initiative (SSRI), in conjunction with NASA’s Small Spacecraft Systems Virtual Institute (S3VI), has developed the SSRI Knowledge Base to improve mission confidence for small spacecraft. The SSRI Knowledge Base is a comprehensive and searchable online tool that consolidates and organizes resources, best practices, and lessons learned from previous small satellite missions sponsored by NASA, other government agencies, and academia. This free, publicly available tool is available to the entire SmallSat community at: NASA SSRI Knowledge Base | Explore. The SSRI Knowledge Base provides vetted, high-quality sources of information on elements that are key to successful small satellite missions. These resources include SSRI working group generated documents and presentations in addition to existing guides, publications, standards, software tools, websites, and books. The Knowledge Base is fully searchable, offers downloadable content when possible, and otherwise links to or references content directly from within the tool. All 58 of the planned topic pages that comprise the SSRI Knowledge Base have been recently completed and include over 450 unique resources that are now available for review. Over the past several months significant enhancements to the tool’s capabilities have been developed and implemented. These enhancements consist of the completed baseline content; development of an Application Programming Interface (API); improved user interfaces; scalable and searchable Best Practices and Lessons Learned (BPLL) lists with ratings; and custom website analytics. This presentation and paper will discuss the motivation for and development of the SSRI Knowledge Base, demonstrate the existing tool, and outline plans for further development. The SSRI is a collaborative activity with broad participation from civil, Department of Defense, and both national and international commercial space systems providers and stakeholders. The S3VI is jointly sponsored by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate and Science Mission Directorate.

Small Spacecraft↗
DOE OSTI2019

Robotics on KM-IT platform - 19107

The Knowledge Management Information Tool (KM-IT) is a web-based system developed to maintain and preserve the Department of Energy's (DoE's) knowledge base. The system was developed by Florida International University's Applied Research Center (FIU-ARC) with the support of the D and D community including the DOE Office of Environmental Management, and with the collaboration and support of the DoE's Energy Facility Contractors Group (EFCOG) and the former ALARA Centers at Hanford and Savannah. The KM-IT system is a community driven system tailored to serve the technical issues faced by the workforce across the DOE Complex. This KM-IT web-based interactive system is operational and available for use at www.dndkm.org and is currently comprised of the following modules: Web Crawler, Hotline, Technology, Hanford's ALARA Center Reports, Specialist Directory, Lessons Learned, Best Practices, Video/Picture Library, Vendors and Industry News. The Web Crawler dynamically searches through the KM-IT repository as well as the web and displays search results based on the search criteria. The Hotline allows registered users to post questions/problems related to D and D and to receive solutions from a subject-matter specialist. The Technology module serves as repository of D and D technologies and contains technology/ demonstration fact sheets and vendor information. D and D community members can add Lessons Learned, Best Practices, and Pictures/Videos to the D and D repository, after a formal approval process. The Vendor module provides a directory of commercial vendors who provide D and D related technologies, supplies, and services. KM-IT makes an excellent use of the knowledge that exists within the D and D community by allowing D and D project managers around the DOE complex to collaborate by sharing innovative ideas, past experiences, and practices and by maintaining a directory of subject matter specialists. FIU is working on developing a new knowledge base using the existing KM-IT framework to provide focused information on robotics. FIU will develop the robotics technology and vendor modules to provide information related to robotics technologies and its application to many different areas including D and D, remote systems and waste processing. This robotics knowledge base will provide the ability to search through the information repository as well as display customized summary information including robotics technology descriptions, benefits, limitations, videos and pictures. The vendor module will provide information related to industry vendors for these technologies and include updated vendor contact information. The vendor module will also provide a search capability based on keywords as well as categories. The robotics knowledge base will publish commercially available technologies as well as the technologies that are still in the research and development phase with national laboratories and academic universities. The robotics KM-IT will be developed in phases to support all of the features of the KM-IT platform and will be published on www.rkmit.org. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning viscoelasticity models from indirect data using deep neural networks

In this study, we propose a novel approach to model viscoelasticity materials, where rate-dependent and non-linear constitutive relationships are approximated with deep neural networks. We assume that inputs and outputs of the neural networks are not directly observable, and therefore common training techniques with input–output pairs for the neural networks are inapplicable. To that end, we develop a novel computational approach to both calibrate parametric and learn neural-network-based constitutive relations of viscoelasticity materials from indirect displacement data in the context of multiple-physics systems. We show that limited displacement data holds sufficient information to quantify the viscoelasticity behavior. We formulate the inverse computation – modeling viscoelasticity properties from observed displacement data – as a PDE-constrained optimization problem and minimize the error functional using a gradient-based optimization method. The gradients are computed by a combination of automatic differentiation and implicit function differentiation rules. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated through numerous benchmark problems in geomechanics and porous media transport.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Trustworthiness modeling and evaluation for a nearly autonomous management and control system

The Nearly Autonomous Management and Control (NAMAC) system supports the advanced reactor operation by recommending control actions to operators based on real-time measurements and digital twins (DTs) learning from the knowledge base. To enable the safe and reliable use of autonomous technologies, NAMAC and its recommendations should be trustworthy to operators and regulators at both the design and operation stages. This study proposes a NAMAC trustworthiness modeling and evaluation framework supported by trustworthiness ontologies and evidence-based approaches. The development-time and run-time ontologies are separately constructed and then converted to Bayesian networks to quantitatively evaluate the NAMAC trustworthiness. This evaluation is demonstrated by collecting and characterizing evidence from NAMAC practices, such as the development and assessment of the NAMAC system, data coverage assessment, and the training and optimizations of neural-network-based DTs. Our proposed approach can aggregate various trustworthiness attributes of complex artificial-intelligence-supported systems for safety-critical applications. It also considers the interaction between different DTs and extends beyond the trustworthiness evaluation of a single DT. In conclusion, the evidence-based method enhances the transparency of the trustworthiness modeling and evaluation processes and helps identify uncertainties and subjectivity involved in the processes.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Textile Material Lessons Learned During the Design and Qualification of the NASA Orion Capsule Parachute Assembly System

The NASA Orion Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) development and qualification testing was completed in September 2018. Over the course of the airdrop and ground testing campaign, the team benefited from the ability to design, test, and adjust the design based on observations and inspection results. While the design team used the best knowledge available and attempted to utilize best practices, a number of lessons were learned that should be documented for consideration by future designers. This paper describes these lessons learned including the use of textile reefing loops, the importance of performing joint tests, the impact of using bight sleeves on parachute deployment, and a surprising number of design changes required in the CPAS system after the decision was made to change the suspension line braid to save system mass.

Anderson, Brian P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Reinforcement Learning Approach to Augment Conventional PID Control in Nuclear Power Plant Transient Operation

The ability of nuclear reactors to operate their power conversion cycles more flexibly will enhance their value to energy grids with variable pricing. Current nuclear control systems are typically classical controllers that are often based on proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control. This paper presents a method of augmenting the existing PID control for difficult transient operations in nuclear power plants using a reinforcement learning–derived feedforward signal applied in real time. The agents, which are trained on a test thermal load-following problem, are designed to improve steam generator outlet temperature control for a range of fast load-following scenarios covering ramp rates from 9%/min to 15%/min. Several reinforcement learning algorithms were initially investigated for the training of the feedforward agents with deep Q-learning (DQN) and proximal policy optimization (PPO) networks, which were found to be the most promising. The DQN controllers utilize discrete actions, giving them a better disturbance rejection at steady state but inconsistent response to initial temperature deviations. In contrast, PPO-trained agents, which take continuous actions except for a dead zone around zero, were shown to have the best combination of high disturbance rejection at steady state and good tracking of the desired temperature value. The ability of the PPO agent was also examined, with the average time of decision making found to be on the order of 1 ms. The fault properties of the controller under the loss of the reinforcement learning agent feedforward signal were also examined. The controller showed strong performance in situations of “no-signal” faults. but was less good at handling “stuck-at” faults, where the feedforward signal remains at a set value. In both cases, however, the PID was able to successfully maintain stability, eventually returning the system to a steady state. It is hoped that this work will allow for the proposed control architecture to be examined for more difficult control problems such that it may eventually be used to adapt existing nuclear plants for more aggressive load-following on grids of the future.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Decarbonization through Autonomous Physics-Centric Deep Learning and Optimization of Building Operations (Abstract only)

This project directly addresses the primary goal of Area of Interest 2 in the CRADA call: to advance optimization-based integrated energy management systems in commercial and residential buildings. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and its industry partner PassiveLogic aim to accomplish this by reaching three key objectives. First, to ensure a broad impact in the building controls industry, PNNL will extend its open-source library for predictive control synthesis by augmenting its capabilities with data-driven self-learning of building models and auto-calibration of predictive controllers. The effort will focus on building use cases selected in collaboration with PassiveLogic. The team will specifically address the development of methods for data-driven adaptation of building models, investigation of model architectures that best address specific building types, and automated synthesis of differentiable predictive controllers that optimize diverse objectives. Second, PNNL will collaborate with PassiveLogic to integrate the aforementioned methods with PasiveLogic’s advanced controls platform. The collaborative integration effort will inform the developments under the first objective by providing specific data on the attainable performance of model learning on resource-constrained edge computing platforms. This software integration effort will increase the technical maturity of the developed libraries by exploring the use of software integration tools and methods. Third, PNNL and PassiveLogic will work to improve the technology readiness of the developed predictive controllers by testing their performance in relevant test environments, such as high-fidelity simulation, hardware in the loop, and actual test buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2018

A learning-based data-driven forecast approach for predicting future reservoir performance

Quantification of the predictive uncertainty of subsurface models has long been investigated. The traditional workflow is to calibrate prior models to match observed data, and then use the posterior models to simulate future system performance. Not only are these procedures computationally expensive, but they also have issues in maintaining geological model constraints during the calibration step. Data space inversion (DSI) was introduced recently to predict future system performance without the iterative history matching or model calibration step. In general, DSI approaches seek to establish a statistical relationship between the observed and forecast variables, as well as to quantify the predictive uncertainty of the forecast variables, by using an ensemble of uncalibrated prior models. Existing DSI approaches all require a number of complex transformation and mapping operations, which may deter their widespread use. Here in this study, we introduce a new and simpler DSI approach, the learning-based, data-driven forecast approach (LDFA), by combining dimension reduction and machine learning techniques to quickly provide accurate forecast results and reliably quantify corresponding uncertainty in the results. Our LDFA framework is demonstrated using two supervised learning algorithms, artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR), on two representative examples from reservoir engineering and geological carbon storage. Results suggest that our approach provides accurate forecast results (e.g., future oil production rate or cumulative injected CO 2 ) and reasonable predictive uncertainty intervals. Our framework is generic and may be applied to other surface and subsurface problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗