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Bayesian inference of fiber orientation and polymer properties in short fiber-reinforced polymer composites

Herein we present a Bayesian methodology to infer the elastic modulus of the constituent polymer and the fiber orientation state in a short-fiber reinforced polymer composite (SFRP). The properties are inversely determined using only a few experimental tests. Developing composite manufacturing digital twins for SFRP composite processes, including injection molding and extrusion deposition additive manufacturing (EDAM) requires extensive experimental material characterization. In particular, characterizing the composite mechanical properties is time consuming and therefore, micromechanics models are used to fully identify the elasticity tensor. Hence, the objective of this paper is to infer the fiber orientation and the effective polymer modulus and therefore, identify the elasticity tensor of the composite with minimal experimental tests. To that end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model coupled with a micromechanics model to infer the fiber orientation and the polymer elastic modulus simultaneously which we then use to estimate the composite elasticity tensor. We motivate and demonstrate the methodology for the EDAM process but the development is such that it is applicable to other SFRP composites processed via other methods. Our results demonstrate that the approach provides a reliable framework for the inference, with as few as three tensile tests, while accounting for epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. Posterior predictive checks show that the model is able to recreate the experimental data well. The ability of the Bayesian approach to calibrate the material properties and its associated uncertainties, make it a promising tool for enabling a probabilistic predictive framework for composites manufacturing digital twins.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fiber Sorbents – A Versatile Platform for Sorption-Based Gas Separations

Increasing demand for high-purity fine chemicals and a drive for process intensification of large-scale separations have driven significant work on the development of highly engineered porous materials with promise for sorption-based separations. While sorptive separations in porous materials offer energy-efficient alternatives to longstanding thermal-based methods, the particulate nature of many of these sorbents has sometimes limited their large-scale deployment in high-throughput applications such as gas separations, for which the necessary high feed flow rates and gas velocities accrue prohibitive operational costs. These processability limitations have been historically addressed through powder shaping methods aimed at the fabrication of structured sorbent contactors based on pellets, beads or monoliths, commonly obtained as extrudates. These structures overcome limitations such as elevated pressure drops commonly recorded across powder adsorption beds but often accrue thermal limitations arising from elevated particle density and aggregation, which ultimately cap their maximum separation performance. Furthermore, the harsh mechanical strain to which powder particles are subjected during contactor fabrication, in the form of extrusion/compression forces, can result in partial pore occlusion and framework degradation, further limiting their performance. Here, we present the development of porous fiber sorbents as an alternative sorbent contactor design capable of addressing sorbent processability limitations while enabling an array of performance-maximizing heat integration capabilities. This new sorbent form factor leverages pre-existing know-how from hollow fiber spinning to produce fiber-shaped sorbent contactors through the phase inversion of known polymers in a process known as dry-jet/wet quenching. The process of phase inversion allows microporous sorbent particles to be latched onto a macroporous polymer matrix under mild processing conditions, thus making it compatible with soft porous materials prone to amorphization under traditional pelletization conditions. Sorbent fibers can be created with different geometries through control of the spinning apparatus and process, offering the possibility to produce monolithic and hollow fibers alike, the latter of which can be integrated with thermalization fluid flows. In this Account, we summarize our progress in the field of fiber sorbents from both design and application standpoints. We further guide the reader through the evolution of this field from the early inceptive work on zeolite hollow fibers to recent developments on MOF fibers. We highlight the versatile nature of fiber sorbents, both from the composition, fabrication and structure points of view, and further demonstrate how fiber sorbents offer alternative paths in tackling new and challenging chemical separation challenges like direct air capture (DAC), with a final perspective on the future of the field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multi-modal characterization methods of solid-electrolyte interphase in silicon-graphite composite electrodes

Composite silicon-graphite (Si-Gr) anodes can improve battery energy density, due to Si's high gravimetric capacity, while mitigating mechanical degradation of the anode and solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) caused by Si volumetric expansion. Optimizing these anodes is challenging, in part due to difficulty characterizing the SEI structure and composition. In this work, we present multi-modal characterization of the SEI on composite Si-Gr anodes to relate SEI chemical composition and structure to functional properties. Discrepancies in elemental concentrations from X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, Auger electron spectroscopy, and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) are attributed to varying information depth and lateral resolution of the individual probes. However, by combining quantitative composition information with spatially resolved element mapping from scanning transmission electron microscopy, EDS, and electron energy loss spectroscopy, a holistic picture of the SEI emerges. We observe the bilayer SEI structure and a direct correlation between elemental Li and F, suggesting that most Li in the SEI exists as lithium fluoride (LiF). Further, LiF concentration is directly proportional to the maximum SEI resistivity, as determined by scanning spreading resistance microscopy. Lastly, there is an inverse relationship between lithium carbonate and LiF concentration in the SEI, providing insight into the detailed chemistry of SEI formation and evolution.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Improving Predictive Capability in REHEDS Simulations with Fast, Accurate, and Consistent Non-Equilibrium Material Properties

Predictive design of REHEDS experiments with radiation-hydrodynamic simulations requires knowledge of material properties (e.g. equations of state (EOS), transport coefficients, and radiation physics). Interpreting experimental results requires accurate models of diagnostic observables (e.g. detailed emission, absorption, and scattering spectra). In conditions of Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE), these material properties and observables can be pre-computed with relatively high accuracy and subsequently tabulated on simple temperature-density grids for fast look-up by simulations. When radiation and electron temperatures fall out of equilibrium, however, non-LTE effects can profoundly change material properties and diagnostic signatures. Accurately and efficiently incorporating these non-LTE effects has been a longstanding challenge for simulations. At present, most simulations include non-LTE effects by invoking highly simplified inline models. These inline non-LTE models are both much slower than table look-up and significantly less accurate than the detailed models used to populate LTE tables and diagnose experimental data through post-processing or inversion. Because inline non-LTE models are slow, designers avoid them whenever possible, which leads to known inaccuracies from using tabular LTE. Because inline models are simple, they are inconsistent with tabular data from detailed models, leading to ill-known inaccuracies, and they cannot generate detailed synthetic diagnostics suitable for direct comparisons with experimental data. This project addresses the challenge of generating and utilizing efficient, accurate, and consistent non-equilibrium material data along three complementary but relatively independent research lines. First, we have developed a relatively fast and accurate non-LTE average-atom model based on density functional theory (DFT) that provides a complete set of EOS, transport, and radiative data, and have rigorously tested it against more sophisticated first-principles multi-atom DFT models, including time-dependent DFT. Next, we have developed a tabular scheme and interpolation methods that compactly capture non-LTE effects for use in simulations and have implemented these tables in the GORGON magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) code. Finally, we have developed post-processing tools that use detailed tabulated non-LTE data to directly predict experimental observables from simulation output.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Physical and Thermomechanical Properties of Yttrium Hydride from Large Scale Bulk Metal Hydriding Furnace

Given the superior thermal stability and highly attainable hydrogen density, yttrium hydride is an excellent high-temperature moderator material in advanced thermal neutron spectrum reactors that require small core volumes. Yttrium hydride has been selected as the moderator material for the Transformational Challenge Reactor, which was launched at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in 2019. However, fabrication of large-scale crack-free yttrium hydride is challenging and very limited efforts have been committed to the characterization of bulk yttrium hydride in response to the need to establish a complete database of the thermomechanical properties of YHx. In this report, the challenges associated with fabricating large-scale crack-free yttrium hydride are discussed herein. In response to those challenges, a hydriding system was designed and constructed at ORNL and was used to successfully fabricate crack-free yttrium hydride in complex geometries at large scales. This was accomplished by precisely controlling the hydrogen’s partial pressure and the retort temperature, which was informed by the well-established thermodynamic properties of the binary H-Y system. Hydrogen content in as-fabricated hydride was determined by the weight change method and vacuum hot extraction technique, complemented by the X-ray diffraction (XRD). In addition, significant efforts are being dedicated to establishing a complete database of the thermomechanical properties of as-fabricated yttrium hydride. In FY2020, we investigated the thermophysical properties of yttrium hydrides as a function of temperature (room temperature to 700°C) and hydrogen concentration (H/Y ratio ranges from 1.52 to 1.93). The results indicate that at the temperatures below 300 °C, the hydrogen content did not have a significant influence on the thermal expansion, while the specific heat capacity, the thermal diffusivity, and the calculated thermal conductivity were slightly higher for the higher H/Y ratio. Between 300°C and 700 °C, a reversible second-order endothermic transition in all measured thermal properties was observed. It was also found that the onset temperatures of the observed transition varied, with the composition having inverse dependence on the hydrogen content. An attempt was made to explain the behavior of the thermophysical properties at higher temperatures by considering the order– disorder transition as a result of hydrogen redistribution. In addition, nanoindentation was employed to determine the elastic modulus and hardness and to capture the crystal orientation dependence of these parameters. Vickers hardness was also reported. The final section of the report introduces ongoing neutron irradiation campaign of yttrium hydride.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Dietary B group vitamin intake and the bladder cancer risk: a pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies

Abstract Purpose Diet may play an essential role in the aetiology of bladder cancer (BC). The B group complex vitamins involve diverse biological functions that could be influential in cancer prevention. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between various components of the B group vitamin complex and BC risk. Methods Dietary data were pooled from four cohort studies. Food item intake was converted to daily intakes of B group vitamins and pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were obtained using Cox-regression models. Dose–response relationships were examined using a nonparametric test for trend. Results In total, 2915 BC cases and 530,012 non-cases were included in the analyses. The present study showed an increased BC risk for moderate intake of vitamin B1 (HR B1 : 1.13, 95% CI: 1.00–1.20). In men, moderate intake of the vitamins B1, B2, energy-related vitamins and high intake of vitamin B1 were associated with an increased BC risk (HR (95% CI): 1.13 (1.02–1.26), 1.14 (1.02–1.26), 1.13 (1.02–1.26; 1.13 (1.02–1.26), respectively). In women, high intake of all vitamins and vitamin combinations, except for the entire complex, showed an inverse association (HR (95% CI): 0.80 (0.67–0.97), 0.83 (0.70–1.00); 0.77 (0.63–0.93), 0.73 (0.61–0.88), 0.82 (0.68–0.99), 0.79 (0.66–0.95), 0.80 (0.66–0.96), 0.74 (0.62–0.89), 0.76 (0.63–0.92), respectively). Dose–response analyses showed an increased BC risk for higher intake of vitamin B1 and B12. Conclusion Our findings highlight the importance of future research on the food sources of B group vitamins in the context of the overall and sex-stratified diet.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Diagnostics: Chapter 8 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This chapter presents the activity conducted by the ITPA topical group (TG) on Diagnostics over about the last 15 years. Following a general introduction of the ITER Diagnostics led by their measurement roles, the document is organized in several subchapters detailing the design support, research and development activity conducted by each of the specialist working groups (WGs) of the TG. Please note that the magnetic diagnostics were supported at the TG without a specific WG. Their status is included in the general introduction. In the following some highlights of the subchapter’s contents are provided. Recent advances in ITER first wall (FW) diagnostics for the measurements of plasma-metallic wall interaction in support of the ITER research plan are reported. An InfraRed imaging Video Bolometer for ITER has been developed and tested on several tokamaks to measure the radiated power loss. A laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique which utilizes a pulsed laser beam to ablate locally by forming a crater, will measure local tritium inventory in the FW material. Real-time Residual Gas Analyzers will measure the neutral gas composition in a divertor port and an equatorial port during plasma operation. Due to the full metallic FW environment, the plasma-wall interaction in ITER will face several challenges such as the compromised radiated power and divertor heat flux measurements by reflection. Ray tracing and analysis codes have been developed to eliminate and correct the effects of reflection in the measurements. The characteristics of the reflecting surfaces depending on the roughness and angle of the incidence have been measured by dedicated experiments, and the results were applied to the reflection elimination. For the measurement of the metallic impurity radiation induced by eroded metallic atoms, a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer has been developed and tested. An extensive thermonuclear diagnostic suite will be required to support the operation of ITER and the planned experimental program for future burning plasma experiments. Due to the harsh environmental conditions, the implementation of diagnostic systems in ITER is a major challenge. These conditions include high levels of neutron and gamma fluxes, neutron heating, particle bombardment. Therefore, the selection and design of diagnostic systems must take into account a number of phenomena previously unseen in diagnostic design. For this reason, the measurement of neutrons and confined or lost fast ions, with particular emphasis on alpha particles, is critical to ITER. The diagnostics associated with these measurements will be important for future plasma-burning experiments at ITER. The high neutron emission and very large plasma size in ITER make neutron diagnostics the main diagnostic method used to measure plasma parameters such as fusion power, fusion power density, ion temperature, energy of fast ions and their spatial distributions in the plasma core. Active spectroscopy techniques are methods where a neutral particle beam is injected into the plasma and information on plasma parameters is extracted from the measurement of line emission resulting from the beam-plasma interaction, either by plasma ions or by beam atoms. Spatial localization is achieved by crossing the beamline and multiple observation lines. The ITER plasma will be a high temperature, moderately dense, fully ionized collisional plasma. The plasma facing surfaces are principally metallic being fashioned from beryllium or tungsten but many other elements, arising from either structural or from operational needs, may enter this plasma. The energy range of the emitted photons range from meV (infra-red) to multi keV (x-rays) and originate from all areas of the plasma volume. The primary role of passive emission diagnostics is to identify what is in the plasma from spectral signatures. Extracting quantitative information from these measurements such as impurity content, ion temperature, rotation, degree of detachment and radiated power depends on calibrated instruments, a physics model of the atomic and molecular processes and plasma transport and an analysis workflow that takes into account environmental effects such as reflections. The particular needs for ITER have prompted a multi-machine, many-year effort to address all these aspects and this chapter reviews the work on diagnostic design, experiments and new analysis techniques. An overview of the laser diagnostics to be implemented on ITER is also provided in this paper. This includes descriptions of the Thomson scattering in the core, edge and divertor regions, polarimetry and interferometry diagnostics used for measuring plasma density and also measurements of helium density in the divertor using Laser Induced Flourescence. Techniques which can allow improvements on current measurements are also addressed in particular expanding poloidal polarimetry measurements to measure field fluctuations and proposed use of dispersion interferometery which has a number of advantages over existing methods. This paper identifies particular areas where further research and testing on existing tokamaks is useful even at this advanced stage to inform the design of diagnostics for ITER. Outstanding areas of concern for the implementation of laser diagnostics, in particular with a view to reliable operation are identified. An overview of the latest developments of microwave diagnostic systems and techniques is given. The primary focus is the contributions for ITER—the next step burning plasma experiment—which is supplemented by describing recent progress of techniques applicable for fusion experiments beyond ITER. The contributions are intentionally kept concise, and are being supplemented by a rich list of references for further studies. Radiation induced effects are receiving continuous and well-deserved attention of the ITER diagnostic community and they are in many cases one of the primary design drivers of the ITER diagnostic systems. The paper summarizes recent progress in this area focusing primarily on the ITER diagnostics but in some cases provides also outlook for the possible solutions for even more demanding radiation environment of fusion reactors beyond ITER. Despite advancements in the area of modeling and simulation of various radiation induced effects, experimental testing in a nuclear environment as close as possible to the target one is still seen as unavoidable for proper qualification of particular diagnostic functional elements. Recent advancement within three diagnostic areas: optical diagnostics, magnetics and bolometers is covered. Encouraging results on qualification of silica glass vacuum window assemblies are presented. In the area of magnetic sensors, progress of irradiation tests performed on ITER in-vessel LTCC inductive sensors is presented with outlook for novel technological approaches to inductive sensors utilizing thick printing and photolithography technologies being highlighted. Summary of advancements in the area of steady state magnetic field sensors based on Hall effect is given. New results of neutron irradiation test of the ITER borosilicate glass inserts for vacuum electrical feedthroughs are summarized finding negligible swelling at target level of neutron fluence. Off-line irradiation tests of fiber optic current sensors for plasma current measurement demonstrated that both for gamma doses up to 5 MGy and a total neutron fluence up to 10 15 cm −2 , radiation induced changes are still compatible with required measurement accuracy on ITER. The ITER bolometers are given as an example how considering radiation effects may influence the diagnostic design. Finally, outlook for future main R&D directions is outlined. All optical and laser-based diagnostics in ITER will be using mirrors to guide plasma radiation toward detectors, cameras and sensors. In the hostile plasma, radiation and particle environment the optical characteristics of diagnostic mirrors will degrade directly affecting the entire performance of involved diagnostic systems. An assessment of factors affecting mirror performance is provided. Among the prime adverse factors are deposition of plasma impurities, sputtering of mirror surface and steam ingress in the vicinity of mirrors. Within the International Tokamak Physics Activity with active support by ITER central team and domestic agencies, the structured research and development (R&D) program on mitigation of risks for diagnostic mirrors is underway. Within this program the mirror material development, the passive mitigation of mirror degradation by using diagnostic ducts and shutters along with an active mirror recovery program comprising the in-situ mirror cleaning and calibration is underway. Recent developments in diagnostic mirror R&D are described in this Chapter along with an example of their implementation of R&D solutions in ITER Infrared Thermography diagnostic. An assessment of still open engineering and physics questions, considerations on mirror risks during an early phase of ITER operation are given along with an overview of diagnostic mirror evolution in the late ITER operation stage toward the demonstration fusion power plant. Several crucial areas of diagnostic R&D outlined in ITER Research Plan are addressed. The basic control groups in a fusion reactor can be broken-down in five categories: (1) plasma position, magnetic configuration, and plasma current control, (2) profile control and confinement optimization, (3) MHD control and suppression, (4) edge dissipation control, radiation and plasma exhaust control and (5) break-down optimization. These categories are coupled via the physics (a control action in one domain will affect the other domains) and via shared actuators (e.g. ECRH for impurity accumulation avoidance, current density distribution control and MHD suppression). Consequently, a supervisory control system should determine the priority of the various control tasks, their couplings, and the interfaces with the safety and interlock system. For the systematic development of the various controllers taking the complexity of the plasma and the control system into account, a model-based approach is required. A short historical overview is given of the developments in systems and control theory and control engineering with special emphasis on those developments that are most relevant for Nuclear Fusion research and operation. An overview is given of the state of the field of fusion plasma control for the control categories. It will be shown how synthetic diagnostics are being developed in ITER and how they are used in diagnostic design and design validation and how they can be in model-based controller synthesis using relatively simple models. In modern control methods, multiple diagnostics are used to constrain relatively simple models. The constrained models provide an estimate for the state. This opens the route to state controllers, such as model predictive control. A major challenge in nuclear fusion research is the coherent combination of data from heterogeneous diagnostics and modeling codes for machine control and safety as well as physics studies. Measured data from different diagnostics often provide information about the same subset of physical parameters. Additionally, information provided by some diagnostics might be needed for the analysis of other diagnostics. A joint analysis of complementary and redundant data allows, e.g. to improve the reliability of parameter estimation, to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of profiles, to obtain synergistic effects, to consider diagnostics interdependencies and to find and resolve data inconsistencies. Physics-based modeling and parameter relationships provide additional information improving the treatment of ill-posed inversion problems. A coherent combination of all kind of available information within a probabilistic framework allows for improved data analysis results. The concept of integrated data analysis (IDA) in the framework of Bayesian probability theory is outlined and contrasted with conventional data analysis. Components of the probabilistic approach are summarized and specific ingredients beneficial for data analysis at fusion devices are discussed.

ITER↗

Quantifying the impact of temporal analysis of products reactor initial state uncertainties on kinetic parameters

The temporal analysis of products (TAP) reactor, a transient kinetic tool, provides users with information as the catalyst state evolves. However, the state of the art for TAP uncertainty quantification only considers the experimental noise present in the outlet flow signal. Additional sources of uncertainty, including, but not limited to, initial surface coverages, the catalyst zone location, the inert void fraction, and the gas pulse intensity and pulse delay, are not included. For this reason, a framework for quantifying all uncertainty sources present in TAP experiments is presented and applied to a carbon monoxide oxidation case study. Herein, two methods for quantifying these sources of uncertainty are introduced. The first utilizes initial state sensitivities to approximate the parameter variances, as well as to provide insights into the structural certainty of the model. The second generates parameter confidence distributions through an ensemble-based sampling algorithm. This initial state covariance matrix can ultimately be merged with the experimental noise covariance matrix, providing a unified description of the parameter uncertainties for a single TAP experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Probabilistic-learning-based stochastic surrogate model from small incomplete datasets for nonlinear dynamical systems

We consider a high-dimensional nonlinear computational model of a dynamical system, parameterized by a vector-valued control parameter, in the presence of uncertainties represented by an uncontrolled parameter modeled by a vector-valued random variable, and possibly with stochastic excitation. The objective is to construct a statistical surrogate model where the input is any deterministic value of the control parameter, and the output is a vector-valued observation of the computational model, which is a random vector whose probability measure is updated using a target dataset. To construct this statistical surrogate model, the stochastic response of the computational model must be built, which is a vector-valued time-discretized stochastic process in high dimension, depending on the control parameter. It is assumed that the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is high. For the probabilistic updating, we consider a subset of the components of the observation of the computational model, defined as the “identification observation” of the computational model, for which a small target dataset is available. Therefore, the target dataset is associated with partial observability, corresponding to an incomplete data case. Given a prior probability model of the random control and uncontrolled parameters, a training dataset is constructed, consisting of realizations of the random triplet composed of the stochastic response, the random identification observation, and the random control parameter. Since the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is assumed to be large, the training dataset is also of small size. The main challenges in this problem are the high dimensionality, partial observability leading to incomplete data in the target dataset for the identification observation of the computational model (which is not sufficient to identify the computational stochastic responses), and the availability of a small training dataset. To address these challenges, we propose a methodology based on statistical methods for constructing necessary reduced representations, direct probabilistic learning under constraints using probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) constrained by the target dataset, and the use of a weak formulation of the Fourier transform of probability measures. Statistical conditioning is also employed to explore the learned dataset. The constructed predictive statistical surrogate model can be implemented in the context of online computation. Here, we apply this approach to a problem of nonlinear stochastic dynamics in high dimensions within the framework of deformable solids mechanics.

Engineering↗

H2OI95: A Stand-Alone Fortran Code for Evaluating the IAPWS-95 Equation-of-State Model for Water (Rev. 1)

H2OI95 is a stand-alone Fortran code for evaluating the IAPWS-95 equation-of-state model for the thermodynamic properties of water. It also evaluates the corresponding thermochemical properties of water consistent with the CODATA recommendations. The IAPWS-95 model is based on a model equation for the dimensionless Helmholtz energy for which the primary variables are the inverse reduced temperature (τ = T cr /T ) and reduced density (δ = ρ/ρ cr ). Here T is the absolute temperature (K), ρ is density (kg/m³), and the subscript “ cr ” refers to the critical point of water (647.096 K and 22.064 MPa pressure in this model, for which ρ cr is 322 kg/m³). The code solves four basic types of problems, distinguished by the specified inputs: 1. Temperature (K) and density (ρ kg/m³) or reduced density (δ) 2. Temperature (K) and pressure (MPa). 3. Temperature (K) on the saturation (liquid-vapor equilibrium) curve 4. Pressure (MPa) on the saturation curve. Each type of problem is run using a corresponding input (text) file. All but the first type of problem require iteration. For example, to solve for desired temperature and pressure, the reduced density must be adjusted to give the desired pressure. Iteration is accomplished using the Newton-Raphson method, though the secant method is also used in solving the fourth type of problem. For the last three types of problems, H2OI95 has been used to conduct numerical studies of convergence and the problem of multiple numerical solutions, some of which are not physically valid. Obtaining valid results depends mainly on appropriate choice of starting values for the density. The default values used in H2OI95 appear to consistently lead to generally desired results. With modification (not addressed here), H2OI95 can be used to support SUPCRT92 and similar codes that compute chemical thermodynamic properties of species and reactions over a wide range of temperature and pressure (273.16-1273K and 0-1000 MPa). Version 1.1 of this software calculates an extended set of water properties, including some derivable solely from IAPWS-95, such as the isobaric thermal expansivity and the isothermal compressibility, and still other properties based on supplementary models sanctioned by IAPWS, including the dynamic viscosity, thermal conductivity, surface tension, and static dielectric constant, and various other properties (notably Debye-Hückel parameters) derivable from the dielectric constant and its partial derivatives with respect to temperature and pressure. A coding error in Version 1.0 was identified while testing the implementation of the viscosity model. This error is described in Appendix C. It mainly affects calculation of “higher order” properties such as compressibility and heat capacity near the critical point.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Graph-learning approach to combine multiresolution seismic velocity models

SUMMARY The resolution of velocity models obtained by tomography varies due to multiple factors and variables, such as the inversion approach, ray coverage, data quality, etc. Combining velocity models with different resolutions can enable more accurate ground motion simulations. Toward this goal, we present a novel methodology to fuse multiresolution seismic velocity maps with probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). The PGMs provide segmentation results, corresponding to various velocity intervals, in seismic velocity models with different resolutions. Further, by considering physical information (such as ray path density), we introduce physics-informed probabilistic graphical models (PIPGMs). These models provide data-driven relations between subdomains with low (LR) and high (HR) resolutions. Transferring (segmented) distribution information from the HR regions enhances the details in the LR regions by solving a maximum likelihood problem with prior knowledge from HR models. When updating areas bordering HR and LR regions, a patch-scanning policy is adopted to consider local patterns and avoid sharp boundaries. To evaluate the efficacy of the proposed PGM fusion method, we tested the fusion approach on both a synthetic checkerboard model and a fault zone structure imaged from the 2019 Ridgecrest, CA, earthquake sequence. The Ridgecrest fault zone image consists of a shallow (top 1 km) high-resolution shear-wave velocity model obtained from ambient noise tomography, which is embedded into the coarser Statewide California Earthquake Center Community Velocity Model version S4.26-M01. The model efficacy is underscored by the deviation between observed and calculated traveltimes along the boundaries between HR and LR regions, 38 per cent less than obtained by conventional Gaussian interpolation. The proposed PGM fusion method can merge any gridded multiresolution velocity model, a valuable tool for computational seismology and ground motion estimation.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Machine Learning‐Assisted Microearthquake Location Workflow for Monitoring the Newberry Enhanced Geothermal System

Abstract Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) offer a sustainable energy source but face challenges in accurately locating microearthquakes induced during reservoir stimulation. Locating these microearthquakes provides reliable feedback on the stimulation progress. Current deep learning methods for locating earthquakes require extensive data sets for training, which is problematic as detected microearthquakes are often limited. To address the scarcity of training data, we propose a practical workflow using probabilistic multilayer perceptron (PMLP) which predicts microearthquake locations from cross‐correlation time lags in waveforms. Utilizing a 3D velocity model of Newberry site derived from ambient noise interferometry, we generate numerous synthetic microearthquakes and 3D acoustic waveforms for PMLP training. Accurate synthetic tests prompt us to apply the trained network to the 2012 and 2014 stimulation field waveforms. To enhance the accuracy of source localization, we carefully handpick the P‐arrival times. Predictions on the 2012 stimulation data set show major microseismic activity at depths of 0.5–1.2 km, correlating with a known casing leakage scenario. In the 2014 data set, the majority of predictions concentrate at 2.0–2.9 km depths, consistent with results obtained from conventional physics‐based inversion, and align with the presence of natural fractures from 2.0 to 2.7 km. We validate our findings by comparing the synthetic and field picks, demonstrating a satisfactory match for the first arrivals. By combining the benefits of quick inference speeds and accurate location predictions, we demonstrate the feasibility of using realistic synthetic data set to locate microseismicity for EGS monitoring.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Point defect evolution under irradiation: Finite size effects and spatio-temporal correlations

The evolution of point defect concentrations under irradiation is controlled by their diffusion properties, and by their formation and elimination mechanisms. The latter includes the mutual recombination of vacancies and interstitials, and the elimination of point defects at sinks. Two models are traditionally used to predict the defect concentration evolution, the standard rate theory (SRT) and the atomistic kinetic Monte Carlo (AKMC). We show in this work a large discrepancy in the defect concentrations between both methods when the average number of defects in the AKMC simulation box is close or lower than one. The reason is that AKMC naturally captures strong space and time correlations between vacancies and interstitials generated by the finite size of the periodic simulation box. These correlations strongly affect the recombination rate and the point defect concentrations. SRT fails to predict such correlations, and the corresponding solution deviates from the more accurate solution given by the AKMC simulation under similar conditions. These finite size correlation effects are strong when the elimination of point defects occurs by recombination only, but can still be significant in the presence of sinks. In order to account for the spacio-temporal correlation in a continuum framework, we introduce a Correlated Pair Theory (CPT). This theory fully takes into account the correlations between vacancy and interstitial pairs and predicts point defect concentrations in good agreement with AKMC simulations. Inversely, if the goal is for the AKMC to reproduce defect concentrations in bulk using small simulation boxes, the naturally occurring correlations need to be corrected. We show here that the CPT can be used to modify the elimination rates in the AKMC simulations, so as to yield point defect concentrations in agreement with SRT.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Efficient Neural Network Approaches for Conditional Optimal Transport with Applications in Bayesian Inference

In this work, we present two neural network approaches that approximate the solutions of static and dynamic conditional optimal transport (COT) problems. Both approaches enable conditional sampling and conditional density estimation, which are core tasks in Bayesian inference—particularly in the simulation-based (“likelihood-free”) setting. Our methods represent the target conditional distribution as a transformation of a tractable reference distribution. Obtaining such a transformation, chosen here to be an approximation of the COT map, is computationally challenging even in moderate dimensions. To improve scalability, our numerical algorithms use neural networks to parameterize candidate maps and further exploit the structure of the COT problem. Our static approach approximates the map as the gradient of a partially input convex neural network. It uses a novel numerical implementation to increase computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art alternatives. Our dynamic approach approximates the conditional optimal transport via the flow map of a regularized neural ODE; compared to the static approach, it is slower to train but offers more modeling choices and can lead to faster sampling. We demonstrate both algorithms numerically, comparing them with competing state-of-the-art approaches, using benchmark datasets and simulation-based Bayesian inverse problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optical Classification of Lower Amazon Waters Based on In Situ Data and Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Color Instrument Imagery

Optical water types (OWTs) were identified from an in situ dataset of concomitant biogeochemical and optical parameters acquired in the Amazon River and its tributaries, in the Lower Amazon region, at different hydrological conditions from 2014 to 2017. A seasonal bio-optical characterization was performed. The k-means classification was applied to the in situ normalized reflectance spectra (rn(λ)), allowing the identification of four OWTs. An optical index method was also applied to the rn(λ) defining the thresholds of the OWTs. Next, level-3 Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Color Instrument images representative of the seasonal discharge conditions were classified using the identified in situ OWTs as reference. The differences between Amazon River and clearwater tributary OWTs were dependent on the hydrological dynamics of the Amazon River, also showing a strong seasonal variability. Each OWT was associated with a specific bio-optical and biogeochemical environment assessed from the corresponding absorption coefficient values of colored dissolved organic matter (aCDOM) and particulate matter (ap), chlorophyll-a and suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations, and aCDOM/ap ratio. The rising water season presented a unique OWT with high SPM concentration and high relative contribution of ap to total absorption compared to the other OWTs. This bio-optical characterization of Lower Amazon River waters represents a first step for developing remote sensing inversion models adjusted to the optical complexity of this region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

3D Multiresolution Velocity Model Fusion with Probability Graphical Models

ABSTRACT The variability in spatial resolution of seismic velocity models obtained via tomographic methodologies is attributed to many factors, including inversion strategies, ray-path coverage, and data integrity. Integration of such models, with distinct resolutions, is crucial during the refinement of community models, thereby enhancing the precision of ground-motion simulations. Toward this goal, we introduce the probability graphical model (PGM), combining velocity models with heterogeneous resolutions and nonuniform data point distributions. The PGM integrates data relations across varying resolution subdomains, enhancing detail within low-resolution (LR) domains by utilizing information and prior knowledge from high-resolution (HR) subdomains through a maximum posterior problem. Assessment of efficacy, utilizing both 2D and 3D velocity models—consisting of synthetic checkerboard models and a fault-zone model from Ridgecrest, California—demonstrates noteworthy improvements in accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art fusion techniques. Specifically, we find reductions of 30% and 44% in computed travel-time residuals for 2D and 3D models, respectively, as compared to conventional smoothing techniques. Unlike conventional methods, the PGM’s adaptive weight selection facilitates preserving and learning details from complex, nonuniform HR models and applies the enhancements to the LR background domain.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Spectral density reconstruction with Chebyshev polynomials

Accurate calculations of the spectral density in a strongly correlated quantum many-body system are of fundamental importance to study its dynamics in the linear response regime. Typical examples are the calculation of inclusive and semiexclusive scattering cross sections in atomic nuclei and transport properties of nuclear and neutron star matter. Integral transform techniques play an important role in accessing the spectral density in a variety of nuclear systems. However, their accuracy is in practice limited by the need to perform a numerical inversion which is often ill-conditioned. Here, in the present work we extend a recently proposed quantum algorithm which circumvents this problem. We show how to perform controllable reconstructions of the spectral density over a finite energy resolution with rigorous error estimates. An appropriate expansion in Chebyshev polynomials allows for efficient simulations also on classical computers. We apply our idea to obtain the local density of states for graphene in a magnetic field as a proof of principle. This paves the way for future applications in nuclear and condensed matter physics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗