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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Optimal design of microseismic monitoring network: Synthetic study for the Kimberlina CO2 storage demonstration site

Microseismic monitoring can play a crucial role to ensure safe long-term geological carbon storage. For reliable long-term monitoring for CO2-injection-induced microseismic events, a surface seismic array is desirable in addition to borehole geophone sensors. Optimal design of surface seismic network is of great interest to achieve cost-effective monitoring. We develop a methodology to determine the optimal number of surface seismic stations with a geometrically satisfactory distribution for given monitoring regions. We design an optimal microseismic monitoring network based on widely-accepted guiding principles, and the relationship between the location accuracy of microseismic events and the total number of seismic stations. We determine the optimal number of seismic stations based on the trade-off curve of the event location accuracy vs. the total number of seismic stations. We apply our optimal design method to the Kimberlina carbon storage site in California. We use a synthetic Kimberlina model to show that approximately 20 surface seismic stations with a geometrically satisfactory distribution are preferred for the best trade-off between the cost and the event location accuracy.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

CO 2 plume evolution in a depleted natural gas reservoir: Modeling of conformance uncertainty reduction over time

Uncertainty in the long-term fate of CO 2 injected for geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is a significant barrier to the adoption of GCS as a greenhouse-gas emission-mitigation for industry and regulatory agencies alike. Here, we present a modeling study that demonstrates that the uncertainty in forecasts of GCS site performance decreases over time as monitoring data are used to update operational models. We consider a case study of GCS in a depleted natural gas reservoir, with CO 2 injection occurring over 20 years, with a 50-year post-injection site care period. We constructed a detailed model to generate the actual model output, which is considered synthetic observation data. A series of simpler operational models based on limited data and assumptions about how an operator would model such a site are then run and compared against actual model output at specific monitoring points after one year, two years, etc. The operational model is updated and improved using the synthetic observation data from the actual model at the same time intervals. Model parameter values and model features needed to be updated over time to improve matches to the actual model. These kinds of model adjustments would be a normal part of reservoir engineering and site management at GCS sites. Uncertainty in two key measures related to site performance decreases with time: extent of the CO 2 plume up-dip migration, and radial extent of the pressure pulse. This conclusion should help allay the concerns of industry and regulators about uncertainty in long-term fate of CO 2 at GCS sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydraulic fracturing to enhance injectivity and storage capacity of CO 2 storage reservoirs: Benefits and risks

Several potential CO 2 storage reservoirs have been found to have insufficient porosity and permeability to support cost effective commercial-scale injection. As a result, the use of hydraulic fracturing to enhance injectivity and storage capacity of CO 2 storage reservoirs was explored. Previous modeling studies indicate that fracturing can increase storage capacity by modest to significant amounts (10%–35%), depending on model assumptions. Simulations completed as part of this study confirm that for a range of horizontal well lengths, number of fractures, fracture geometries, and fracture properties, injectivity is improved and capacity increases by 13%–71% over the base case unfractured vertical well. Intuitively, increasing the well length and number of fractures had a corresponding impact on increased capacity. Here, fracture area (i.e., the fracture height multiplied by its width) was an important parameter for increasing capacity but the specific geometry (e.g., the ratio of height-to-width) was unimportant. The most important aspect that affected capacity was the ability of a fracture to connect high permeability horizontal zones in the reservoir. This would allow a single well to access both layers, thereby maximizing total storage capacity of the reservoir while likely leading to an overall increase of the CO 2 footprint, which is an important consideration for Class VI UIC permitting. The results of this work demonstrate that hydraulic fracturing is an attractive option to consider when faced with an underperforming geologic carbon storage site that is at risk of causing a project to fail.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Wellbore injectivity response to step-rate CO 2 injection: Coupled thermo-poro-elastic analysis in a vertically heterogeneous formation

Safe and permanent carbon geological storages require an elaborate analysis of geomechanical stability. Subsurface injection of CO 2 changes the local temperature and pore pressure and, further, alters the stress due to thermo-poro-elastic responses. A permanent CO 2 storage testing was conducted in the water leg of Cranfield reservoir in Mississippi, USA, where hosted CO 2 enhanced-oil recovery activities. During CO 2 injection, the injection rate was ramped up twice but the bottom-hole pressure did not increase with the imposed injection rates as expected. This unexpected field observation suggests the possibility of an open-mode fracture development at the injector. However, the injector response and potential fracture development have not been rigorously interpreted with detailed near-wellbore temperature and pore pressure change upon the CO 2 injection. In this study, we performed history matching of CO 2 injection using coupled thermo-poro-elastic reservoir simulation to examine the possibility of fracturing. We built a reservoir model including vertical heterogeneity in both petrophysical and geomechanical properties estimated from well-logging analysis and laboratory experiments. The simulation results show that CO 2 injection changes stresses and support the hypothesis of development of an open-mode fracture at the injector during the Cranfield test. The near-injector region exhibits a large temperature reduction up to 55 °C with ensuing effective horizontal stress reduction up to 9.1 MPa. However, a caprock integrity issue is unlikely because of the horizontal stress contrast within layers and low hydraulic communication with the injection zone. This work indicates that the injectant temperature should be considered in the design of high-rate CO 2 injector.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Influence of geochemical reactions on the creep behavior of Mt. Simon sandstone

The capture and subsurface storage of carbon dioxide is a sustainable option that is currently pursued worldwide to mitigate greenhouse gas effect. However, predicting the long-term mechanical integrity of CO 2 underground storage systems remains a challenge. To address that question, it is essential to understand the influence of fluid-rock chemo-mechanical interactions on the long-term and on the time-dependent mechanical properties. In turn, the long-term mechanical response and the time-dependent mechanical behavior can be represented by the creep response. We investigate the impact of CO 2 -induced geochemical reaction on the creep response of Mt. Simon sandstone with a 50–400 micron grain size. We perform static and dynamic flow experiments on Mt. Simon sandstone specimens under geological conditions, at a temperature of T = 50 - 53 °C and for CO 2 pressures of P = 8:62; 17:2 MPa under both static flow and dynamic flow-through conditions. After aging, we employ creep indentation testing, high-resolution SEM-EDS, computer vision, machine learning, and micromechanics modeling to probe changes on the microstructure and mechanical properties. Following both static and dynamic flow-through experiments, we observe a 10–22% decrease in quartz volume fraction and an increase in both the microporosity (7–28%) and nanoporosity (60–65%). Additional CO 2 -induced microstructural changes include an enlargement of pore throats and the formation of channels. These observations point to the presence of CO 2 -induced K-feldspar dissolution and clay dissolution reactions. Here, the macroscopic creep behavior is logarithmic and the macroscopic creep modulus varies depending on the microporosity and the relative quartz and feldspar content. As a result of these geochemical reactions and of the related microstructural changes, a 55-60% decrease in the macroscopic logarithmic creep modulus is predicted.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Review of Well Integrity Based on Field Experience at Carbon Utilization and Storage Sites

Maintaining well integrity is critical to the success of geologic carbon storage (GCS) and carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) operations. Wells that experience leakage because of integrity issues can potentially become a risk to the environment or human health if they release previously captured CO 2 back into the atmosphere or into freshwater aquifers. There are many GCS and CO 2 -EOR sites in operation around the world. However, well integrity experiences at these sites are not widely documented in the public domain. This study details findings from a survey of well integrity experiences elicited from operators of GCS and CO 2 -EOR sites. The goal of the survey was to obtain information about site characteristics and operator experiences with well integrity, monitoring methods, and risk assessment of legacy wells. Literature relevant to the survey questions was also reviewed and summarized to provide context for survey responses and identify areas where field experiences with well integrity do and do not align with the current state of research. We highlight the current state-of-practice, identify research needs, and provide context for future interactions between researchers, operators, and regulators on issues related to well integrity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of possible reactivation of undetected faults during CO 2 injection

Geologic storage of carbon dioxide can efficiently contribute to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. Two major hazards of this technology are leakage towards the ground surface and fluid-induced seismicity. While major faults may be detected and avoided during site characterization, undetected subseismic faults could be encountered once injection has started. This paper investigates leakage and reactivation of undetected faults through coupled thermal–hydraulic–mechanical modeling. The simulations are performed using a recently developed sequential simulator, TOUGH-Pylith, that allows to accurately account for the thermodynamics of brine-CO 2 injection mixtures, and to model faults as surfaces of discontinuity using state-of-the-art fault friction laws. The simulator is benchmarked against well-known analytical solutions and subsequently applied to investigate two cases of CO 2 injection injection close to undetected faults under normal and strike-slip faulting regimes. Furthermore, although the scenarios are generic and represent unfavorable conditions, they suggest that leakage could occur and that undetected faults could trigger minor seismic events. Therefore, careful site characterization and continuous monitoring during operations should be always performed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Physics-informed machine learning for fault-leakage reduced-order modeling

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is a promising technology for mitigating CO 2 emissions. The overall success of GCS depends on safe operations that are informed by risk assessment and have proper mitigation plans in place. Performing quantitative probabilistic risk assessment for a GCS site using traditional reservoir simulators can be challenging due to the high computational costs. To overcome this challenge, the US Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) project has developed an integrated assessment modeling approach that utilizes computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROM) for simulating various parts of a GCS storage site to quantify uncertainty. Here, in this study, we develop a reduced-order model for fault leakage risk assessment. We use a deep learning approach to build the reduced-order model. We perform a sensitivity analysis and find that the deep learning model yields high accuracy with a much smaller computational cost than full-physics simulation. We also evaluate the performance of the model in scenarios where simulations are not possible to run, providing analysis not previously performed in fault-leakage ROM analyses. Based on a sensitivity analysis of the model, we suggest a simplified conceptual model for fault leakage and site monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Advancing spatiotemporal forecasts of CO 2 plume migration using deep learning networks with transfer learning and interpretation analysis

Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume distribution throughout the injection and post-injection phases are crucial for detecting plume migration, assessing leakage risks, and supporting operational decisions in geologic carbon storage (GCS). Current convolutional neural network-based approaches primarily focus on spatial information and overlook temporal dependencies in plume distributions, thus limiting their ability to capture dynamic movement effects and provide accurate predictions of plume migration. In this work, we propose two deep learning models, Auto-Encoder (AE)-LSTM and Encoder-Decoder (ED)-ConvLSTM, each uniquely designed to capture both spatial and temporal features. We apply the proposed methods to forecast the dynamic distribution of CO 2 plumes based on 108 reservoir simulations over a 30-year injection and a 30-year post-injection period. The results indicate that the ED-ConvLSTM model outperforms the AE-LSTM model in accurately predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of CO 2 plume migration, achieving R 2 values above 0.99. To provide a deeper understanding of these model predictions, we employ a gradient-based explanation method on the trained models. This approach provides insights into the influence of input variables on plume migration forecasts and uncovers the underlying prediction mechanisms of the proposed models. Furthermore, we introduce a transfer learning technique, enabling fast and accurate plume migration forecasting in the post-injection phase by leveraging the trained model during the injection phase. This reduces the necessity for extensive data collection or re-training. In conclusion, the methods proposed in our work enhances the performance and interpretability of CO 2 plume migration forecasts, thereby facilitating informed decision-making throughout the entire lifecycle of GCS applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of cement composition, brine concentration, diffusion rate, reaction rate and boundary condition on self-sealing predictions for cement-CO 2 systems

Geological CO 2 storage (GCS) plays an important role in curbing CO 2 emissions by reducing the carbon footprint of difficult to decarbonize operations and achieve negative CO 2 emissions through activities like Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS). Leakage of CO 2 through wells is an important concern when it comes to deployment of large-scale GCS. Existing wells in sites that are otherwise suitable for GCS can act as conduits for stored CO 2 to escape the reservoir. There is broad consensus that the main risk of leakage through wellbores is via fractures/damaged pathways. The results from several studies evaluating the permeability evolution of cement fractures in wells upon leakage of CO 2 agree that smaller fracture apertures, slower brine velocities and higher brine residence times promote self-sealing of fractures by mineral precipitation. Quantitatively, however, the differences in sealing conditions are significant and are typically attributed to differences in experimental conditions or model assumptions. Here we examine the sensitivity of our model, describing CO 2 leakage through wellbores, to cement composition, brine concentration, diffusion rates, and reaction rates. We also evaluate the impact of the boundary condition to allow comparisons between observations from experiments performed at constant flow rate and model predictions made at constant pressure conditions. Our results show that diffusion and reactions rates have the most impact on the self-sealing criteria for cement-CO 2 systems. In addition, conditions associated with self-sealing of fractures at constant flow rate require longer fractures, smaller fracture apertures, and slower velocities than under constant pressure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impacts of irregularly-distributed acidified brine flow on geo-chemo-mechanical alteration in an artificial shale fracture under differential stress

The efficacy of geological carbon sequestration is reliant on the integrity of the caprock and its resistance to physical and chemical alteration. Caprocks with high abundance of reactive carbonates like calcite are susceptible to acid-promoted dissolution and can result in structural weakening. This work investigates the effect of acidified brine flow through an artificially fractured, high-carbonate (30 % by XRD) shale under differential compressive stress. Cylindrical samples were cut in half vertically and milled to create an artificial fracture with interlocking asperities and open channels. Samples were sheared with a single applied stress in a custom flow cell housed within an industrial CT scanner. Further, either acidic (pH 4) or reservoir-simulated (pH 9.5) brine was flowed through the artificial fracture for 7–8 days under reservoir pressure and room temperature. Model simulations indicate flow mainly occurred in open channels, with limited flow between overlapping asperities. Analysis of fracture surfaces by optical and scanning electron microscopy show increased surface alteration and roughness after exposure to pH 4 versus pH 9.5 brine indicating mineral dissolution/loss, and this effect is greater in areas that receive the highest brine flows. Similarly, surface analysis by scratch testing shows fracture toughness decreases more after exposure to acidic versus reservoir-simulated brine, with the greatest alteration in areas of highest acidic brine flows. Despite weakening, no shear slip occurred. Overall, the results indicate that acidified brine can result in significant physical and geomechanical alteration of irregular fracture surfaces in shale caprock, with greatest effects in preferential flow regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Gigaton commercial-scale carbon storage and mineralization potential in stacked Columbia River basalt reservoirs

This work presents a detailed supercritical CO 2 storage resource estimation for the stacked basalt reservoirs in the Grande Ronde Basalt of the Columbia River Basalt Group in eastern Washington and Oregon. The assessment aims to derisk the commercialization potential of geologic carbon storage in basalt by leveraging both structural and mineralization trapping of CO 2 in basalt. The structural closures formed by anticlinal ridges and synclinal valleys in Yakima Fold Belt are excellent physical traps to accommodate injected supercritical CO 2 . Rigorous hydraulic testing, well logs and simulation results from the Wallula Basalt Pilot #1 well showed the occurrence of 17 suitable permeable injection zones (up to 2,496 mD) intercalated with dense seals (~2.6E-10 mD) in the Grand Ronde Basalt. In addition, geochemical studies showed fast reactions between supercritical CO 2 and dissolved basalt minerals to form stable carbonates. In conclusion, our calculation indicates up to 40 gigatons (P90) of mineralization storage resources exist in the Grande Ronde Basalt reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Informing field-scale CO 2 storage simulations with sandbox experiments: The effect of small-scale heterogeneities

Small-scale heterogeneities can significantly affect the fate of the CO 2 plume and trapping during CO 2 migration. We conducted geologic carbon storage field-scale simulations to investigate the impact of small-scale heterogeneities on plume dynamics and trapping performance. Small-scale heterogeneities have been shown to increase the amount of trapped CO 2 during buoyancy-driven flow. The trapped CO 2 saturation is validated by previous sandbox experimental work during buoyancy-driven flow in realistic heterogeneous domains and is implemented through the critical CO 2 saturation parameter (i.e., the first non-zero value in the drainage CO 2 relative permeability curve). Depending on the type and degree of heterogeneity, various critical CO 2 saturation values are exhibited. Furthermore, we investigated the effect of small-scale heterogeneities when multiple capillary pressure models are employed. This study demonstrates that an increase in critical CO 2 saturation reduces the CO 2 plume size and lateral extent, accompanying an increase in residual trapping and a decrease in solubility trapping. Lastly, we show that independent of the capillary pressure model used, an increase in critical saturation leads to similar CO 2 plume dynamics distribution and trapping performance. These results emphasize the importance of quantifying the effect of small-scale heterogeneity as they affect the large-scale behavior of the CO 2 plume.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cyclic loading–unloading impacts on geomechanical stability of multiple salt caverns for underground hydrogen storage

Underground caverns in a salt dome are promising geologic features to store hydrogen because of salt’s extremely low permeability and self-healing behavior. The salt cavern storage community, however, has not fully understood the geomechanical behaviors of salt rock driven by quick operation cycles of injection–production, which may significantly impact the cost-effective storage-recovery performance of multiple caverns. Our field-scale generic model captures the impact of cyclic loading–unloading on the salt creep behavior and deformation under different cycle frequencies, operating pressure, and spatial order of operating cavern(s). This systematic simulation study indicates that the initial operation cycle and arrangement of multiple caverns play a significant role in the creep-driven loss of cavern volumes and cavern deformation. Finally, our future study will develop a new salt constitutive model based on geomechanical tests of site-specific salt rock to probe the cyclic behaviors of salt precisely both beneath and above the dilatancy boundary, including reverse (inverse transient) creep, the Bauschinger effect, and damage-healing mechanism.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Gouge formation and dilation impacts to flow during fracture shearing

We report flow in fractures is of critical importance to fluid flow in low-permeability shales, particularly when they restrict vertical migration from reservoirs. The Mt. Simon Sandstone is a target for geologic CO 2 sequestration and the overlying Eau Claire Formation is the sealing formation capping this reservoir. The lower Eau Claire, a primary barrier to upward migration of CO 2 from the Mt. Simon, is lithologically heterogenous with a mixture of sandstone and shale. We use a series of flow-through experiments on fractured samples from the Eau Claire to document the morphological changes taking place in the fracture and surrounding rock as it is sheared in a stepwise fashion. The samples were imaged using computed tomography after each shearing episode and flow resistance was calculated based on the pressure differential across each core. We found that gouge accumulations in the fracture plane led to specific instances of self-sealing behavior despite the fact that most samples increased in average fracture aperture and transmissivity. Gouge limited the increase or, in some cases, decreased flow through these samples. Fractures adjacent to shale-rich zones and concordant with bedding were more likely to show evidence of self-sealing, while increased sandstone content and fracture orientation perpendicular to bedding planes was more likely to result in fracture dilation and fracture permeability increases. Reactivation and shearing of vertical fractures in lithologically heterogenous caprocks is more likely to pose risks to long term CO 2 storage scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A gradient-based deep neural network model for simulating multiphase flow in porous media

We report simulation of multiphase flow in porous media is crucial for the effective management of subsurface energy and environment-related activities. The numerical simulators used for modeling such processes rely on spatial and temporal discretization of the governing mass and energy balance partial-differential equations (PDEs) into algebraic systems via finite-difference/volume/element methods. These simulators usually require dedicated software development and maintenance, and suffer low efficiency from a runtime and memory standpoint for problems with multi-scale heterogeneity, coupled-physics processes or fluids with complex phase behavior. Therefore, developing cost-effective, data-driven models can become a practical choice, and in this work, we choose deep learning approaches as they can handle high dimensional data and accurately predict state variables with strong nonlinearity. In this paper, we describe a gradient-based deep neural network (GDNN) constrained by the physics related to multiphase flow in porous media. We tackle the nonlinearity of flow in porous media induced by rock heterogeneity, fluid properties, and fluid-rock interactions by decomposing the nonlinear PDEs into a dictionary of elementary differential operators. We use a combination of operators to handle rock spatial heterogeneity and fluid flow by advection. Since the augmented differential operators are inherently related to the physics of fluid flow, we treat them as first principles prior knowledge to regularize the GDNN training. We use the example of pressure management at geologic CO 2 storage sites, where CO 2 is injected in saline aquifers and brine is produced, and apply GDNN to construct a predictive model that is trained with physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. We demonstrate that GDNN can effectively predict the nonlinear patterns of subsurface responses, including the temporal and spatial evolution of the pressure and saturation plumes. We also successfully extend the GDNN to convolutional neural network (CNN), namely gradient-based CNN (GCNN), and validate its capability to improve the prediction accuracy. GDNN has great potential to tackle challenging problems that are governed by highly nonlinear physics and enable the development of data-driven models with higher fidelity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A new multi-model absolute difference-based sensitivity (MMADS) analysis method to screen non-influential processes under process model and parametric uncertainty

Process-based models have been widely used for hydrologic modeling, and it is a common practice to use sensitivity analysis methods for excluding non-influential hydrologic processes from further investigation and/or model improvement. This study develops a new method called multi-model absolute difference-based sensitivity (MMADS) analysis method to screen non-influential system processes and parameters. MMADS is conceptually similar to the Morris method for addressing parametric uncertainty, but has a unique feature to address both process model uncertainty (i.e., a process may be represented by multiple process models) and process model parameter uncertainty (i.e., parameters associated with a process model are random). MMADS first evaluates absolute differences of a quantity of interest (i.e., a system model output) by varying process models and/or process model parameter values, and then calculates the mean and variance of the differences for investigating process influence. The mean measures overall influence of the process on the quantity of interest, and the variance estimates influence of nonlinear effects of the process and/or its interactions with other processes. MMADS is an extension of the Morris method from a parameter space to a joint parameter-model space for explicitly addressing both process model uncertainty and model parameter uncertainty. The performance of MMADS is evaluated by using two numerical experiments. One experiment is based on Sobol’s G*-function with ten product elements, and has analytical solutions of the MMADS mean and variance of absolute differences. The other experiment is for groundwater flow modeling which considers three processes (i.e., recharge, geology, and snowmelt) that interact with each other. Finally, results indicate that MMADS is computationally efficient and can identify non-influential processes of complex hydrological systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic coevolution of baseflow and multiscale groundwater flow system during prolonged droughts

Field and numerical studies suggest that baseflow is composed of waters from a spectrum of groundwater flow paths termed the Groundwater Flow System (GWFS) – from shallow hillslope contributions to watershed-scale deep circulation originating in headwaters and discharging into lowland rivers. Here, we explore the evolution of the GWFS under prolonged droughts to understand its dynamics and multiscale nature, and to elucidate its role in baseflow generation and recession at the watershed scale. In this work, we consider three drought scenarios of varying severity and simulate groundwater flow in a 2-D cross-section of an idealized watershed with deep permeable bedrock, tracking the evolution of flow paths, baseflow, and residence times during the recession process. We find that baseflow generation at different drainage stages, and within different subwatersheds, is influenced distinctly by flow paths of different scales, depending on the relative strength of the flow paths and the position of the subwatersheds relative to the recharge/discharge zones of the deeper watershed-scale groundwater circulation. Despite having the same local relief, geology, and climate, baseflow from each subwatershed has a distinct recession behavior and time-dependent residence time distribution. Also, the hydraulic and transport characteristics of baseflow generation co-evolve and are strongly affected by the connection state of the water table to subwatersheds. These findings suggest that asynchrony and dissimilarity of baseflow generation from hillslopes under the impact of the watershed-scale groundwater flow, and interactions with local-scale and intermediate-scale groundwater flow, must be taken into account when interpreting baseflow recession data and building conceptual baseflow models at the watershed scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗