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The Unit of Lightning

For the past century, scientists have made quantitative measurements of lightning discharges. In the process, they refined the definition of a lightning unit, or basic quantum of lightning, in order to base it on observable parameters. Although many components of a lightning discharge have been identified, lightning usually occur in groups of discharges or pulses that, although complex, can be organized into units of flashes. This unit definition is based mainly on measurements of lightning from electric field, video, and ground flash lightning locating networks. More recent instrumentation with various combinations of high sensitivity, high temporal, or high spatial resolution often measure signals produced by lightning that do not cleanly divide into flashes. The data from these systems indicate the need or a more fundamental unit for lightning. Such a unit would be of benefit for both basic understanding of lightning and comparing lightning information between instruments. Without a common lightning unit definition, intercomparisons are difficult. For an example, the Lightning Detection And Ranging system (LDAR) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) have detected ,flash' rates as high as 600 per minute while analysis based on the Advanced Ground Based Field Mill network (AGBFM) detect only 33 "flashes" per minute in the same area and time periods. The satellite based Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) sometimes see single "flashes" that last longer than 10 seconds. Such long duration flashes are not found in electric field records or ground strike location system data sets. The unit of lightning should be based on the fundamental components of the lightning discharge. This should make the unit as generally applicable as possible. For example, studies of NO(x) production by lightning depend on parameters of the individual lightning channels and not the summary flash characteristics. For such studies, the best unit of lightning may be closer to the classical stroke in the electric field data sets, flash in the LDAR data sets, and group in the OTD/LIS data sets. For this type of study, however, more than just the stroke count information is needed. In this paper, we will outline the current definitions of the unit of lightning and propose new basic definitions for the unit of lightning. Since different instruments detect lightning in different ways and different studies may need almost mutually exclusive aspects of the lightning discharge, there may not be a single definition of the unit of lightning that can be applied to all systems and all studies. However, common components can be found since all instrumentation are detecting aspects of the same phenomenon.

Mach, Douglas M.↗

Saccades to remembered targets: the effects of smooth pursuit and illusory stimulus motion

1. Measurements were made in four normal human subjects of the accuracy of saccades to remembered locations of targets that were flashed on a 20 x 30 deg random dot display that was either stationary or moving horizontally and sinusoidally at +/-9 deg at 0.3 Hz. During the interval between the target flash and the memory-guided saccade, the "memory period" (1.4 s), subjects either fixated a stationary spot or pursued a spot moving vertically sinusoidally at +/-9 deg at 0.3 Hz. 2. When saccades were made toward the location of targets previously flashed on a stationary background as subjects fixated the stationary spot, median saccadic error was 0.93 deg horizontally and 1.1 deg vertically. These errors were greater than for saccades to visible targets, which had median values of 0.59 deg horizontally and 0.60 deg vertically. 3. When targets were flashed as subjects smoothly pursued a spot that moved vertically across the stationary background, median saccadic error was 1.1 deg horizontally and 1.2 deg vertically, thus being of similar accuracy to when targets were flashed during fixation. In addition, the vertical component of the memory-guided saccade was much more closely correlated with the "spatial error" than with the "retinal error"; this indicated that, when programming the saccade, the brain had taken into account eye movements that occurred during the memory period. 4. When saccades were made to targets flashed during attempted fixation of a stationary spot on a horizontally moving background, a condition that produces a weak Duncker-type illusion of horizontal movement of the primary target, median saccadic error increased horizontally to 3.2 deg but was 1.1 deg vertically. 5. When targets were flashed as subjects smoothly pursued a spot that moved vertically on the horizontally moving background, a condition that induces a strong illusion of diagonal target motion, median saccadic error was 4.0 deg horizontally and 1.5 deg vertically; thus the horizontal error was greater than under any other experimental condition. 6. In most trials, the initial saccade to the remembered target was followed by additional saccades while the subject was still in darkness. These secondary saccades, which were executed in the absence of visual feedback, brought the eye closer to the target location. During paradigms involving horizontal background movement, these corrections were more prominent horizontally than vertically. 7. Further measurements were made in two subjects to determine whether inaccuracy of memory-guided saccades, in the horizontal plane, was due to mislocalization at the time that the target flashed, misrepresentation of the trajectory of the pursuit eye movement during the memory period, or both. 8. The magnitude of the saccadic error, both with and without corrections made in darkness, was mislocalized by approximately 30% of the displacement of the background at the time that the target flashed. The magnitude of the saccadic error also was influenced by net movement of the background during the memory period, corresponding to approximately 25% of net background movement for the initial saccade and approximately 13% for the final eye position achieved in darkness. 9. We formulated simple linear models to test specific hypotheses about which combinations of signals best describe the observed saccadic amplitudes. We tested the possibilities that the brain made an accurate memory of target location and a reliable representation of the eye movement during the memory period, or that one or both of these was corrupted by the illusory visual stimulus. Our data were best accounted for by a model in which both the working memory of target location and the internal representation of the horizontal eye movements were corrupted by the illusory visual stimulus. We conclude that extraretinal signals played only a minor role, in comparison with visual estimates of the direction of gaze, in planning eye movements to remembered targ.

Clinical Trial↗

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Estimates Derived from SSMI Microwave Remote Sensing and NLDN

Lightning observations are collected using ground-based and satellite-based sensors. The National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) in the United States uses multiple ground sensors to triangulate the electromagnetic signals created when lightning strikes the Earth's surface. Satellite-based lightning observations have been made from 1998 to present using the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, and from 1995 to 2000 using the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) on the Microlab-1 satellite. Both LIS and OTD are staring imagers that detect lightning as momentary changes in an optical scene. Passive microwave remote sensing (85 and 37 GHz brightness temperatures) from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) has also been used to quantify characteristics of thunderstorms related to lightning. Each lightning detection system has fundamental limitations. TRMM satellite coverage is limited to the tropics and subtropics between 38 deg N and 38 deg S, so lightning at the higher latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres is not observed. The detection efficiency of NLDN sensors exceeds 95%, but the sensors are only located in the USA. Even if data from other ground-based lightning sensors (World Wide Lightning Location Network, the European Cooperation for Lightning Detection, and Canadian Lightning Detection Network) were combined with TRMM and NLDN, there would be enormous spatial gaps in present-day coverage of lightning. In addition, a globally-complete time history of observed lightning activity is currently not available either, with network coverage and detection efficiencies varying through the years. Previous research using the TRMM LIS and Microwave Imager (TMI) showed that there is a statistically significant correlation between lightning flash rates and passive microwave brightness temperatures. The physical basis for this correlation emerges because lightning in a thunderstorm occurs where ice is first present in the cloud and electric charge separation occurs. These ice particles efficiently scatter the microwave radiation at the 85 and 37 GHz frequencies, thus leading to large brightness temperature depressions. Lightning flash rate is related to the total amount of ice passing through the convective updraft regions of thunderstorms. Confirmation of this relationship using TRMM LIS and TMI data, however, remains constrained to TRMM observational limits of the tropics and subtropics. Satellites from the Defense Meteorology Satellite Program (DMSP) have global coverage and are equipped with passive microwave imagers that, like TMI, observe brightness temperatures at 85 and 37 GHz. Unlike the TRMM satellite, however, DMSP satellites do not have a lightning sensor, and the DMSP microwave data has never been used to derive global lightning. In this presentation, a relationship between DMSP Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) data and ground-based cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data from NLDN is investigated to derive a spatially complete time history of CG lightning for the USA study area. This relationship is analogous to the established using TRMM LIS and TMI data. NLDN has the most spatially and temporally complete CG lightning data for the USA, and therefore provides the best opportunity to find geospatially coincident observations with SSMI sensors. The strongest thunderstorms generally have minimum 85 GHz Polarized Corrected brightness Temperatures (PCT) less than 150 K. Archived radar data was used to resolve the spatial extent of the individual storms. NLDN data for that storm spatial extent defined by radar data was used to calculate the CG flash rate for the storm. Similar to results using TRMM sensors, a linear model best explained the relationship between storm-specific CG flash rates and minimum 85 GHz PCT. However, the results in this study apply only to CG lightning. To extend the results to weaker storms, the probability of CG lightning (instead of the flash rate) was calculated for storms having 85 GHz PCT greater than 150 K. NLDN data was used to determine if a CG strike occurred for a storm. This probability of CG lightning was plotted as a function of minimum 85 GHz PCT and minimum 37 GHz PCT. These probabilities were used in conjunction with the linear model to estimate the CG flash rate for weaker storms with minimum 85 GHz PCTs greater than 150 K. Results from the investigation of CG lightning and passive microwave radiation signals agree with the previous research investigating total lightning and brightness temperature. Future work will take the established relationships and apply them to the decades of available DMSP data for the USA to derive a map of CG lightning flash rates. Validation of this method and uncertainty analysis will be done by comparing the derived maps of CG lightning flash rates against existing NLDN maps of CG lightning flash rates.

Winesett, Thomas↗

Data Movement Dominates: Final Report

Over the past three years in this project, what we have observed is that the primary reason for data movement in large-scale systems is that the per-node capacity is not large enough—i.e., one of the solutions to the data-movement problem (certainly not the only solution that is required, but a significant one nonetheless) is to increase per-node capacity so that inter-node traffic is reduced. This unfortunately is not as simple as it sounds. Today’s main memory systems for datacenters, enterprise computing systems, and supercomputers, fail to provide high per-socket capacity [Dirik & Jacob 2009; Cooper-Balis et al. 2012], except at extremely high price points (factors of 10–100x the cost/bit of consumer main-memory systems) [Stokes 2008]. The reason is that our choice of technology for today’s main memory systems—i.e., DRAM, which we have used as a main-memory technology since the 1970s [Jacob et al. 2007]—can no longer keep up with our needs for density and price per bit. Main memory systems have always been built from the cheapest, densest, lowest-power memory technology available, and DRAM is no longer the cheapest, the densest, nor the lowest-power storage technology out there. It is now time for DRAM to go the way that SRAM went: move out of the way for a cheaper, slower, denser storage technology, and become a cache instead. This inflection point has happened before, in the context of SRAM yielding to DRAM. There was once a time that SRAM was the storage technology of choice for all main memories [Tomasulo 1967; Thornton 1970; Kidder 1981]. However, once DRAM hit volume production in the 1970s and 80s, it supplanted SRAM as a main memory technology because it was cheaper, and it was denser. It also happened to be lower power, but that was not the primary consideration of the day. At the time, it was recognized that DRAM was much slower than SRAM, but it was only at the supercomputer level (For instance the Cray X-MP in the 1980s and its follow-on, the Cray Y-MP, in the 1990s) that could one afford to build ever- larger main memories out of SRAM—the reasoning for moving to DRAM was that an appropriately designed memory hierarchy, built of DRAM as main memory and SRAM as a cache, would approach the performance of SRAM, at the price-per-bit of DRAM [Mashey 1999]. Today it is quite clear that, were one to build an entire multi-gigabyte main memory out of SRAM instead of DRAM, one could improve the performance of almost any computer system by up to an order of magnitude—but this option is not even considered, because to build that system would be prohibitively expensive. It is now time to revisit the same design choice in the context of modern technologies and modern systems. For reasons both technical and economic, we can no longer afford to build ever-larger main memory systems out of DRAM. Flash memory, on the other hand, is significantly cheaper and denser than DRAM and therefore should take its place. While it is true that flash is significantly slower than DRAM, one can afford to build much larger main memories out of flash than out of DRAM, and we show that an appropriately designed memory hierarchy, built of flash as main memory and DRAM as a cache, will approach the performance of DRAM, at the price-per-bit of flash. In our studies as part of this project, we have investigated Non-Volatile Main Memory (NVMM), a new main-memory architecture for large-scale computing systems, one that is specifically designed to address the weaknesses described previously. In particular, it provides the following features: non-volatility: The bulk of the storage is comprised of NAND flash, and in this organization DRAM is used only as a cache, not as main memory. Furthermore, the flash is journaled, which means that operations such as checkpoint/restore are already built into the system. 1+ terabytes of storage per socket: SSDs and DRAM DIMMs have roughly the same form factor (several square inches of PCB surface area), and terabyte SSDs are now commonplace. performance approaching that of DRAM: DRAM is used as a cache to the flash system. price-per-bit approaching that of NAND: Flash is currently well under $0.50 per gigabyte; DDR3 SDRAM is currently just over $10 per gigabyte [Newegg 2014]. Even today, one can build an easily affordable main memory system with a terabyte or more of NAND storage per CPU socket (which would be extremely expensive were one to use DRAM), and our cycle- accurate, full-system experiments show that this can be done at a performance point that lies within a factor of two of DRAM.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

The Origin of Hot Subluminous Horizontal-Branch Stars in Omega Centauri and NGC 2808

Hot subluminous stars lying up to 0.7 mag below the extreme horizontal branch (EHB) are found in the ultraviolet color-magnitude diagrams of both omega Cen (DCruz et.al. 2000) and NGC 2808 (Brown et al. 2001). In order to investigate the origin of these subluminous stars, we have constructed a detailed set of evolutionary sequences that follow the evolution of low-mass stars continuously from the zero-age main sequence through the helium-core flash to the HB for a wide range in the mass loss along the red-giant branch (RGB). Stars with the largest mass loss evolve off the RGB to high effective temperatures before igniting helium in their cores (Castellani & Castellani 1993). Our results indicate that the location of the subluminous EHB stars, as well as the high temperature gap along the EHB of NGC 2808, can be explained if these stars undergo a late helium-core flash while descending the white-dwarf cooling curve. Under these conditions the convection zone produced by the main helium flash will penetrate into the stellar envelope, thereby mixing most, if not all, of the envelope hydrogen into the hot helium-burning interior, where it is rapidly consumed (Sweigart 1997). This phenomenon is analogous to the "born-again" scenario for producing hydrogen-deficient stars following a very late helium-shell flash. This "flash mixing" of the envelope during a late helium-core flash greatly enhances the envelope helium and carbon abundances and, as a result, leads to a discontinuous increase in the HB effective temperature. We argue that the hot HB gap observed in NGC 2808 is associated with this theoretically predicted dichotomy in the HB properties. Using new helium- and carbon-rich stellar atmospheres, we show that the changes in the envelope abundances due to flash mixing will suppress the ultraviolet flux in the spectra of hot EHB stars. We suggest that such changes in the emergent spectral energy distribution are primarily responsible for explaining the hot subluminous EHB stars in omega Cen and NGC 2808. Moreover, we demonstrate that models without flash mixing lie, at most, only approximately 0.1 mag below the EHB, and hence fail to explain the observations.

Sweigart, Allen V.↗

The Origin of Hot Subluminous Horizontal-Branch Stars in (omega) Centauri and NGC 2808

Hot subluminous stars lying up to 0.7 mag below the extreme horizontal branch (EHB) are found in the ultraviolet (UV) color magnitude diagrams of both (omega) Cen and NGC 2808. In order to explore the evolutionary status of these subluminous stars, we have evolved a set of low-mass stars continuously from the main sequence through the helium-core flash to the HB (horizontal branch) for a wide range in the mass loss along the red-giant branch (RGB). Stars with the largest mass loss evolve off the RGB to high effective temperatures before igniting helium in their cores. Our results indicate that the subluminous EHB stars, as well as the gap within the EHB of NGC 2808, can be explained if these stars undergo a late helium-core flash while descending the white-dwarf cooling curve. Under these conditions the convection zone produced by the helium flash will penetrate into the stellar envelope, thereby mixing most, if not all, of the envelope hydrogen into the hot helium-burning interior, where it is rapidly consumed. This phenomenon is analogous to the 'born-again' scenario for producing hydrogen-deficient stars following a very late helium-shell flash. This 'flash mixing' of the stellar envelope greatly enhances the envelope helium and carbon abundances and, as a result, leads to a discontinuous jump in the HB effective temperature. We argue that the EHB gap in NGC 2808 is associated with this theoretically predicted dichotomy in the HB morphology. Using new helium- and carbon-rich stellar atmospheres, we show that these changes in the envelope abundances of the flash-mixed stars will suppress the UV flux by the amount needed to explain the hot subluminous EHB stars in (omega) Cen and NGC 2808. Moreover, we demonstrate that models without flash mixing lie, at most, only approximately 0.1 mag below the EHB, and hence fail to explain the observations. Flash mixing may also provide a new evolutionary channel for producing the high gravity, helium-rich sdO and sdB stars.

Sweigart, Allen V.↗

A New Formation Mechanism for the Hottest Horizontal-Branch Stars

Hot subluminous stars lying up to 0.7 mag below the extreme horizontal branch (EHB) are found in the ultraviolet color-magnitude diagrams (CMDs) of both omega Cen and NGC 2808. In order to investigate the origin of these subluminous stars, we have constructed a detailed set of evolutionary sequences that follow the evolution of low-mass stars continuously from the zero-age main sequence through the helium-core flash to the HB for a wide range in the mass loss along the red-giant branch (RGB). Stars with the largest mass loss evolve off the RGB to high effective temperatures before igniting helium in their cores. Our results indicate that the subluminous EHB stars, as well as the high temperature gap along the EHB of NGC 2808, can be explained if these stars undergo a late helium-core flash while descending the white-dwarf cooling curve. Under these conditions the convection zone produced by the main helium flash will penetrate into the stellar envelope, thereby mixing most, if not all, of the envelope hydrogen into the hot helium-burning interior, where it is rapidly consumed. This phenomenon is analogous to the 'born-again' scenario for producing hydrogen-deficient stars following a very late helium-shell flash. This 'flash mixing' of the envelope during a late helium-core flash greatly enhances the envelope helium and carbon abundances and, as a result, leads to a discontinuous increase in the HB effective temperature. We argue that the hot HB gap observed in NGC 2808 is associated with this theoretically predicted dichotomy in the RB properties. Using new helium- and carbon-rich stellar atmospheres, we show that the changes in the envelope abundances due to flash mixing will suppress the ultraviolet flux in the spectra of hot EHB stars. We suggest that such changes in the emergent spectral energy distribution are primarily responsible for explaining the hot subluminous EHB stars in omega Cen and NGC 2808. Moreover, we demonstrate that models without flash mixing lie, at most, only approximately 0.1 mag below the EHB, and hence fail to explain the observations.

Sweigart, Allen V.↗

Effects of Deep Convection on Atmospheric Chemistry

This presentation will trace the important research developments of the last 20+ years in defining the roles of deep convection in tropospheric chemistry. The role of deep convection in vertically redistributing trace gases was first verified through field experiments conducted in 1985. The consequences of deep convection have been noted in many other field programs conducted in subsequent years. Modeling efforts predicted that deep convection occurring over polluted continental regions would cause downstream enhancements in photochemical ozone production in the middle and upper troposphere due to the vertical redistribution of ozone precursors. Particularly large post-convective enhancements of ozone production were estimated for convection occurring over regions of pollution from biomass burning and urban areas. These estimates were verified by measurements taken downstream of biomass burning regions of South America. Models also indicate that convective transport of pristine marine boundary layer air causes decreases in ozone production rates in the upper troposphere and that convective downdrafts bring ozone into the boundary layer where it can be destroyed more rapidly. Additional consequences of deep convection are perturbation of photolysis rates, effective wet scavenging of soluble species, nucleation of new particles in convective outflow, and the potential fix stratosphere-troposphere exchange in thunderstorm anvils. The remainder of the talk will focus on production of NO by lightning, its subsequent transport within convective clouds . and its effects on downwind ozone production. Recent applications of cloud/chemistry model simulations combined with anvil NO and lightning flash observations in estimating NO Introduction per flash will be described. These cloud-resolving case-study simulations of convective transport and lightning NO production in different environments have yielded results which are directly applicable to the design of lightning parameterizations for global chemical transport models. The range of mean values (factor of 3) of NO production per flash (or per meter of lightning channel length) that have been deduced from the model will be shown and compared with values of production in the literature that have been deduced using other methods, Results show that on a per flash basis, IC flashes are nearly as productive of NO as CG flashes. When combined with the global flash rate of 44 flashes per second from NASA's Optical Transient Detector (OTD) measurements, these estimates and the results from other techniques yield global NO production rates of 2-9 TgN/year. Vertical profiles of lightning NOx mass at the end of the 3-D storm simulations have been summarized to yield suggested profiles for use in global models. Simulations of the photochemistry over the 24 hours following a storm have been performed to determine the additional ozone production which can be attributed to lightning NO.

Pickering, Kenneth E.↗

Radar Differential Phase Signatures of Ice Orientation for the Prediction of Lightning Initiation and Cessation

The majority of lightning-related casualties typically occur during thunderstorm initiation (e.g., first flash) or dissipation (e.g., last flash). The physics of electrification and lightning production during thunderstorm initiation is fairly well understood. As such, the literature includes a number of studies presenting various radar techniques (using reflectivity and, if available, other dual-polarimetric parameters) for the anticipation of initial electrification and first lightning flash. These radar techniques have shown considerable skill at forecasting first flash. On the other hand, electrical processes and lightning production during thunderstorm dissipation are not nearly as well understood and few, if any, successful techniques have been developed to anticipate the last flash and subsequent cessation of lightning. One promising approach involves the use of dual-polarimetric radar variables to infer the presence of oriented ice crystals in lightning producing storms. In the absence of strong vertical electric fields, ice crystals fall with their largest (semi-major) axis in the horizontal associated with gravitational and aerodynamic forces. In thunderstorms, strong vertical electric fields (100-200 kV m(sup -1)) have been shown to orient small (less than 2 mm) ice crystals such that their semi-major axis is vertical (or nearly vertical). After a lightning flash, the electric field is typically relaxed and prior radar research suggests that ice crystals rapidly resume their preferred horizontal orientation. In active thunderstorms, the vertical electric field quickly recovers and the ice crystals repeat this cycle of orientation for each nearby flash. This change in ice crystal orientation from primarily horizontal to vertical during the development of strong vertical electric fields prior to a lightning flash forms the physical basis for anticipating lightning initiation and, potentially, cessation. Research has shown that radar reflectivity (Z) and other co-polar back-scattering radar measurements like differential reflectivity (Z(sub dr)) typically measured by operational dual-polarimetric radars are not sensitive to these changes in ice crystal orientation. However, prior research has demonstrated that oriented ice crystals cause significant propagation effects that can be routinely measured by most dual-polarimetric radars from X-band (3 cm) to S-band (10 cm) wavelengths using the differential propagation phase shift (often just called differential phase, phi(sub dp)) or its range derivative, the specific differential phase (K(sub dp)). Advantages of the differential phase include independence from absolute or relative power calibration, attenuation, differential attenuation and relative insensitivity to ground clutter and partial beam occultation effects (as long as the signal remains above noise). In research mode, these sorts of techniques have been used to anticipate initial cloud electrification, lightning initiation, and cessation. In this study, we develop a simplified model of ice crystal size, shape, orientation, dielectric, and associated radar scattering and propagation effects in order to simulate various idealized scenarios of ice crystals responding to a hypothetical electric field and their dual-polarimetric radar signatures leading up to lightning initiation and particularly cessation. The sensitivity of the K(sub dp) ice orientation signature to various ice properties and radar wavelength will be explored. Since K(sub dp) is proportional to frequency in the Rayleigh- Gans scattering regime, the ice orientation signatures should be more obvious at higher (lower) frequencies (wavelengths). As a result, simulations at radar wavelengths from 10 cm down to 1 cm (Ka-band) will be conducted. Resonance effects will be considered using the T-matrix method. Since most K(sub dp) Vbased observations have been shown at S-band, we will present ice orientation signatures from C-band (UAH/NASA ARMOR) and X-bd (UAH MAX) dual-polarimetric radars located in Northern Alabama. Issues related to optimal radar scanning for the detection of oriented ice will be discussed. Preliminary suggestions on how these differential phase signatures of oriented ice could contribute to lightning initiation and cessation algorithms will be presented.

Carey, L.D.↗

Changes in Lightning Characteristics as Hurricane Dorian (2019) Reached Peak Intensity

Previous work using land-based lightning detection networks and lightning imagers in low Earth orbit has established that lighting is a useful predictor of TC intensification. Increases in the number of lightning flashes in both the inner core and outer rainbands of hurricanes are linked to hurricane intensification. Sometimes, however, lightning outbreaks can occur in storms that weaken during or after the outbreak. Environmental conditions such as vertical wind shear and land interaction or inner-core structural changes such as secondary eyewall formation can account for some of this discrepancy. Hurricane Dorian (2019), however, exhibited a distinct inner-core lightning outbreak in a low-shear environment with minimal land interaction. The lightning flashes during this outbreak were located on the inner edge of the eyewall, which is not the expected location of enhanced convection during secondary eyewall formation. Regardless, Dorian weakened during and after this lightning outbreak. This presentation will analyze Dorian’s lightning evolution using data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the GOES-16 satellite. GLM provides continuous observations of not only the number and polarity of lightning flashes, but also the size and optical energy of the flashes. Here we show marked differences in the distributions of average flash area and total optical energy between the two most pronounced lightning outbreaks in Dorian’s lifetime: one while the storm was rapidly intensifying and another while the storm began to weaken. During intensification, lightning flashes were fewer but larger and more energetic, whereas during weakening, lightning flashes were much more numerous, but were smaller and less energetic. We present evidence that barotropic mixing between the eye and eyewall could have contributed to both the increase in inner-core lightning and the weakening of Dorian’s storm-scale maximum wind speed. These results suggest that average flash area and total optical energy could help to distinguish between lightning outbreaks that correspond to intensification and outbreaks that correspond to weakening.

Hurricanes↗

The Illumination of Thunderclouds by Lightning: 2. The Effect of GLM Instrument Threshold on Detection and Clustering

Abstract Lightning is measured from space using optical instruments that detect transient changes in the illumination of the cloud top. How much of the flash (if any) is recorded by the instrument depends on the instrument detection threshold. NOAA's Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) employs a dynamic threshold that varies across the imaging array and changes over time. This causes flashes in certain regions and at night to be recorded in greater detail than other flashes, and threshold inconsistencies will impose biases on all levels of GLM data products. In this study, we quantify the impact of the varying GLM threshold on event/group/flash detection, flash clustering, and gridded product generation by imposing artificial thresholds on the event data taken from a thunderstorm with a low instrument threshold (∼0.7 fJ). We find that even modest increases in threshold severely impact event (60% loss by 2 fJ, 90% loss by 10 fJ) and group (25% loss by 2 fJ, 81% loss by 10 fJ) detection by suppressing faint illumination of the cloud top from weak sources and scattering. Flash detection is impacted less by threshold increases (4% loss by 2 fJ), but reductions are still significant at higher thresholds (35% loss by 10 fJ, or 44% if single‐group flashes are removed). Undetected pulses cause individual flashes to be split and severely impact the construction of gridded products. All of these factors complicate the interpretation of GLM data, particularly when trended over time under a changing threshold.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intense pulsed light annealing of copper zinc tin sulfide nanocrystal coatings

A promising method for forming the absorber layer in copper zinc tin sulfide [Cu{sub 2}ZnSnS{sub 4} (CZTS)] thin film solar cells is thermal annealing of coatings cast from dispersions of CZTS nanocrystals. Intense pulsed light (IPL) annealing utilizing xenon flash lamps is a potential high-throughput, low-cost, roll-to-roll manufacturing compatible alternative to thermal annealing in conventional furnaces. The authors studied the effects of flash energy density (3.9–11.6 J/cm{sup 2}) and number of flashes (1–400) during IPL annealing on the microstructure of CZTS nanocrystal coatings cast on molybdenum-coated soda lime glass substrates (Mo-coated SLG). The annealed coatings exhibited cracks with two distinct linear crack densities, 0.01 and 0.2 μm{sup −1}, depending on the flash intensity and total number of flashes. Low density cracking (0.01 μm{sup −1}, ∼1 crack per 100 μm) is caused by decomposition of CZTS at the Mo-coating interface. Vapor decomposition products at the interface cause blisters as they escape the coating. Residual decomposition products within the blisters were imaged using confocal Raman spectroscopy. In support of this hypothesis, replacing the Mo-coated SLG substrate with quartz eliminated blistering and low-density cracking. High density cracking is caused by rapid thermal expansion and contraction of the coating constricted on the substrate as it is heated and cooled during IPL annealing. Finite element modeling showed that CZTS coatings on low thermal diffusivity materials (i.e., SLG) underwent significant differential heating with respect to the substrate with rapid rises and falls of the coating temperature as the flash is turned on and off, possibly causing a build-up of tensile stress within the coating prompting cracking. Use of a high thermal diffusivity substrate, such as a molybdenum foil (Mo foil), reduces this differential heating and eliminates the high-density cracking. IPL annealing in presence of sulfur vapor prevented both low- and high-density cracking as well as blistering. However, grain growth was limited even after annealing with 400 flashes. This lack of grain growth is attributed to a difficulty of maintaining high sulfur vapor pressure and absence of alkali metal impurities when Mo foil substrates are used.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Investigation of Natural Circulation Instability and Transients in Passively Safe Small Modular Reactors

The NEUP funded project, NEUP-3496, aims to experimentally investigate two-phase natural circulation flow instability that could occur in Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), especially for natural circulation SMRs. The objective has been achieved by systematically performing tests to study the general natural circulation instability characteristics and the natural circulation behavior under start-up or design basis accident conditions. Experimental data sets highlighting the effect of void reactivity feedback as well as the effect of power ramp-up rate and system pressure have been used to develop a comprehensive stability map. The safety analysis code, RELAP5, has been used to evaluate experimental results and models. Improvements to the constitutive relations for flashing have been made in order to develop a reliable analysis tool. This research has been focusing on two generic SMR designs, i.e. a small modular Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (SBWR) like design and a small integral Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) like design. A BWR-type natural circulation test facility was firstly built based on the three-level scaling analysis of the Purdue Novel Modular Reactor (NMR) with an electric output of 50 MWe, namely NMR-50, which represents a BWR-type SMR with a significantly reduced reactor pressure vessel (RPV) height. The experimental facility was installed with various equipment to measure thermalhydraulic parameters such as pressure, temperature, mass flow rate and void fraction. Characterization tests were performed before the startup transient tests and quasi-steady tests to determine the loop flow resistance. The control system and data acquisition system were programmed with LabVIEW to realize the realtime control and data storage. The thermal-hydraulic and nuclear coupled startup transients were performed to investigate the flow instabilities at low pressure and low power conditions for NMR-50. Two different power ramps were chosen to study the effect of startup power density on the flow instability. The experimental startup transient results showed the existence of three different flow instability mechanisms, i.e., flashing instability, condensation induced flow instability, and density wave oscillations. In addition, the void-reactivity feedback did not have significant effects on the flow instability during the startup transients for NMR-50. ii Several initial startup procedures with different power ramp rates were experimentally investigated to eliminate the flow instabilities observed from the startup transients. Particularly, the very slow startup transient and pressurized startup transient tests were performed and compared. It was found that the very slow startup transients by applying very small power density can eliminate the flashing oscillations in the single-phase natural circulation and stabilize the flow oscillations in the phase of net vapor generation. The initially pressurized startup procedure was tested to eliminate the flashing instability during the startup transients as well. The pressurized startup procedure included the initial pressurization, heat-up, and venting process. The startup transient tests showed that the pressurized startup procedure could eliminate the flow instability during the transition from single-phase flow to two-phase flow at low pressure conditions. The experimental results indicated that both startup procedures were applicable to the initial startup of NMR. However, the pressurized startup procedures might be preferred due to short operating hours required. In order to have a deeper understanding of natural circulation flow instability, the quasi-steady tests were performed using the test facility installed with preheater and subcooler. The effect of system pressure, core inlet subcooling, core power density, inlet flow resistance coefficient, and void reactivity feedback were investigated in the quasi-steady state tests. The experimental stability boundaries were determined between unstable and stable flow conditions in the dimensionless stability plane of inlet subcooling number and Zuber number. To predict the stability boundary theoretically, linear stability analysis in the frequency domain was performed at four sections of the natural circulation test loop. The flashing phenomena in the chimney section was considered as an axially uniform heat source. And the dimensionless characteristic equation of the pressure drop perturbation was obtained by considering the void fraction effect and outlet flow resistance in the core section. The theoretical flashing boundary showed some discrepancies with previous experimental data from the quasi-steady state tests. In the future, thermal non-equilibrium was recommended to improve the accuracy of flashing instability boundary. As another part of the funded research, flow instabilities of a PWR-type SMR under low pressure and low power conditions were investigated experimentally as well. The NuScale reactor design was selected as the prototype for the PWR-type SMR. In order to experimentally study the natural circulation behavior of NuScale iii reactor during accidental scenarios, detailed scaling analyses are necessary to ensure that the scaled phenomena could be obtained in a laboratory test facility. The three-level scaling method is used as well to obtain the scaling ratios derived from various non-dimensional numbers. The design of the ideally scaled facility (ISF) was initially accomplished based on these scaling ratios. Then the engineering scaled facility (ESF) was designed and constructed based on the ISF by considering engineering limitations including laboratory space, pipe size, and pipe connections etc. PWR-type SMR experiments were performed in this well-scaled test facility to investigate the potential thermal hydraulic flow instability during the blowdown events, which might occur during the loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and loss of heat sink accident (LOHS) of the prototype PWR-type SMR. Two kinds of experiments, normal blowdown event and cold blowdown event, were experimentally investigated and compared with code predictions. The normal blowdown event was experimentally simulated since an initial condition where the pressure was lower than the designed pressure of the experiment facility, while the code prediction of blowdown started from the normal operation condition. Important thermal hydraulic parameters including reactor pressure vessel (RPV) pressure, containment pressure, local void fraction and temperature, pressure drop and natural circulation flow rate were measured and analyzed during the blowdown event. The pressure and water level transients are similar to the experimental results published by NuScale [51], which proves the capability of current loop in simulating the thermal hydraulic transient of real PWR-type SMR. During the 20000s blowdown experiment, water level in the core was always above the active fuel assemble during the experiment and proved the safety of natural circulation cooling and water recycling design of PWR-type SMR. Besides, pressure, temperature, and water level transient can be accurately predicted by RELAP5 code. However, the oscillations of natural circulation flow rate, water level and pressure drops were observed during the blowdown transients. This kind of flow oscillations are related to the water level and the location upper plenum, which is a path for coolant flow from chimney to steam generator and down comer. In order to investigate the transients start from the opening of ADS valve in both experimental and numerical way, the cold blow-down experiment is conducted. For the cold blowdown event, different from setting both reactor iv pressure vessel (RPV) and containment at high temperature and pressure, only RPV was heated close to the highest designed pressure and then open the ADS valve, same process was predicted using RELAP5 code. By doing cold blowdown experiment, the entire transients from the opening of ADS can be investigated by code and benchmarked with experimental data. Similar flow instability observed in the cold blowdown experiment. The comparison between code prediction and experiment data showed that the RELAP5 code can successfully predict the pressure void fraction and temperature transient during the cold blowdown event with limited error, but numerical instability exists in predicting natural circulation flow rate. Besides, the code is lack of capability in predicting the water level related flow instability observed in experiments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Simulations of Laser Experiments to Study the Origin of Cosmic Magnetic Fields

Magnetic fields are ubiquitous in the universe; however, their origin is not fully understood. Cosmologists and astrophysicists have proposed a variety of ways in which small seed magnetic fields could be created. It is widely thought that the much larger values of the cosmic magnetic fields that we observe are a result of the amplification of these seed fields by the nonlinear turbulent dynamo mechanism. Such a mechanism had not yet been demonstrated in a controlled laboratory environment. We conceived experiments designed to demonstrate and study the nonlinear turbulent dynamo mechanism in the laboratory. These experiments characterize the distribution of turbulent energy among the velocity, magnetic field, and density fluctuations, providing a comprehensive picture of the energy cascade in a magnetized, turbulent plasma. The experiments build on the pathfinder experiments we have conducted on the Vulcan laser at the Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory in the UK and the OMEGA laser at Laboratory for Laser Energetics at Rochester. They utilize the high-intensity lasers at the Omega Laser Facility, the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at LLNL and the Laser Megajoule (LMJ) Facility in France – the largest laser facilities in the world. The goal of this project was to design and model the highly demanding experiments through simulation campaigns using FLASH, a highly capable radiation-MHD code we have developed, and large-scale 3D simulations on the Mira supercomputer at ANL. The simulations were vital to ensuring the experiments achieve the strong turbulence and large magnetic Reynolds numbers required for the nonlinear turbulent dynamo mechanism to operate. The simulations were also critical to determining when to fire the diagnostics, since the experiments last tens of nanoseconds but the signals of the strongly amplified magnetic fields last only a few nanoseconds. Finally, high-fidelity, validated FLASH simulations were crucial to interpreting the results of the experiments. By combining theory, experiments, and simulations, we were able to succeed in demonstrating and characterizing the nonlinear turbulent dynamo mechanism. The effort leveraged (1) the emergence of the Flash Center for Computational Science as a leader in numerical modeling of academic High Energy Density Physics (HEDP) experiments; (2) the FLASH code, which has been developed by the Flash Center and is a leadership-class, multi- physics, publicly available community code that has been applied successfully in many laser-driven experiments; (3) the expertise acquired through pathfinder experiments we performed on the Vulcan laser at the Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory in the UK and on the Omega laser facility; (4) the experience we have gained in designing and interpreting these experiments using validated simulations done with FLASH; and (5) the close collaborations we have established with outstanding experimental groups in the US and abroad. The broader impacts of the project are two-fold: (1) the work furthered the transformation of the academic community’s ability to design and analyze HEDP experiments at large laser facilities that is happening through the availability of FLASH and its widespread adoption by the academic community – a community that previously had had limited access to open and validated hydro/MHD simulation tools for HEDP experiments; and (2) the work trained young scientists to design and interpret HEDP experiments using validated simulations – a critical national need.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Comparison of geothermal power conversion cycles

Geothermal power conversion cycles are compared with respect to recovery of the available wellhead power. The cycles compared are flash steam, in which steam turbines are driven by steam separated from one or more flash stages; binary, in which heat is transferred from the brine to an organic turbine cycle; flash binary, in which heat is transferred from flashed steam to an organic turbine cycle; and dual steam, in which two-phase expanders are driven by the flashing steam-brine mixture and steam turbines by the separated steam. Expander efficiencies assumed are 0.7 for steam turbines, 0.8 for organic turbines, and 0.6 for two-phase expanders. The fraction of available wellhead power delivered by each cycle is found to be about the same at all brine temperatures: 0.65 with one stage and 0.7 with four stages for dual stream; 0.4 with one stage and 0.6 with four stages for flash steam; 0.5 for binary; and 0.3 with one stage and 0.5 with four stages for flash binary.

Elliott, D. G.↗

Optical characteristics of lightning

A study of the optical characteristics of cloud-to-ground dischargers and how they compare with intracloud flashes was completed. Time resolved optical (7774A) and electric field-change waveforms were measured above clouds from a U2 airplane coincident with ground-based measurements of lightning. The optical pulse trains are studied for within and between flash variability. Specifically, for each flash researchers examine the 10, 50 (full width half maximum), and 90 percent pulse widths; the 10-10, 10-50, 10-90, and 10-peak percent amplitude rise times; the radiances (optical power densities); radiant energy densities; and pulse intervals. The optical pulse characteristics of first strokes, subsequent strokes, the intracloud components of cloud-to-ground flashes and intracloud flashes as viewed from above cloud are shown to exhibit very similar waveshapes, radiances and radiant energy densities. Descriptive statistics on these pulse categories were tabulated for 25 visually confirmed cloud-to-ground flashes (229 optical pulses) and 232 intracloud flashes (3126 optical pulses). A companion study of lightning observations above and below cloud in storms, storm complexes, and mesoscale convective systems has also been completed. Researchers compared the mapping of total lightning activity from above clouds with ground-based measurements and storm evolution. Although the total (IC + CG) lightning activity is the more representative indication of thunderstorm growth and decay, the ground strike data can be used to locate, diagnose, and track storm evolution in a number of instances.

Goodman, S. J.↗

The Perseus Flasher and satellite glints

The Perseus Flasher (PF) is claimed to be an astrophysical source which frequently emits bright optical flashes (Katz et al. 1986). These flashes have all been detected by the naked eye, with the exception of one photographed flash for which an accurate position is measured. Notable properties of the PF are its large amplitude (greater than 19 mag), short duration (about 1 s), and frequent occurrence (a flash every 12 hr). Here, evidence is presented that the PF is not an astrophysical source but is merely the observation of glints of reflected sunlight from artificial earth satellites. This conclusion is supported by the following facts: (1) a total of 3400 hr of photographic, video, and CCD observations have detected no flashes in or near the small PF error box, despite the claim of one bright flash every 12 hr; (2) thirteen of the 26 flashes are shown to be nonastrophysical in origin; and (3) both the observational and theoretical glint rates indicate that most, if not all, PF observations are caused by satellite glints.

Schaefer, Bradley E.↗

Initial Comparison of the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) with Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR)

The mapping of the lightning optical pulses detected by the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) is compared with the radiation sources by Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) for three thunderstorms observed during and overpasses on 15 August 1998. The comparison involves 122 flashes including 42 ground and 80 cloud flashes. For ground flash, the LIS recorded the subsequent strokes and changes inside the cloud. For cloud flashes, LIS recorded those with higher sources in altitude and larger number of sources. The discrepancies between the LIS and LDAR flash locations are about 4.3 km for cloud flashes and 12.2 km for ground flashes. The reason for these differences remain a mystery.

Ushio, Tomoo↗