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NASA NTRS2016

Assessment of Models of Galactic Thermal Dust Emission Using COBE/FIRAS and COBE/DIRBE Observations

Accurate modeling of the spectrum of thermal dust emission at millimeter wavelengths is important for improving the accuracy of foreground subtraction for cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements, for improving the accuracy with which the contributions of different foreground emission components can be determined, and for improving our understanding of dust composition and dust physics. We fit four models of dust emission to high Galactic latitude COBE/FIRAS and COBE/DIRBE observations from 3 mm to 100m and compare the quality of the fits. We consider the two-level systems (TLS) model because it provides a physically motivated explanation for the observed long wavelength flattening of the dust spectrum and the anti-correlation between emissivity index and dust temperature. We consider the model of Finkbeiner et al. because it has been widely used for CMB studies, and the generalized version of this model that was recently applied to Planck data by Meisner and Finkbeiner. For comparison we have also fit a phenomenological model consisting of the sum of two-graybody components. We find that the two-graybody model gives the best fit and the FDS model gives a significantly poorer fit than the othermodels. The Meisner and Finkbeiner model and the TLS model remain viable for use in Galactic foreground subtraction, but the FIRAS data do not have a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio to provide a strong test of the predicted spectrum at millimeter wavelengths.

Odegard, N.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Bit Error Rate and Frame Error Rate Data Processing for Space Communications and Navigation-Related Communication System Analysis Tools

One of the capabilities that the Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Strategic Center for Networking, Integration, and Communications (SCENIC) user interface (UI) web application intends to provide its users is the addition of network protocol and link encryption augmentations of communication system analyses. Before any of these analyses capabilities can be modeled, the simulations of bit error rate (BER) and frame error rate (FER) against signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) have been conducted, requiring parameters from several known coding types (low-density parity-check (LDPC), convolutional, etc.), signal modulations (binary phase shift keying (BPSK), quadrature phase shift keying (QPSK), etc.), coding rates (1/2, 1/3, etc.), and frame sizes (1,280, 3,580, etc.). However, in order to extract useful information from the results of these simulations, a curve fitting technique has been applied to each resulting dataset to extend and extrapolate the curve fit of BER and FER down to 10–30 using MATLAB® Curve Fitting Toolbox™ (The MathWorks, Inc.). This is a necessary step because simulations of BER and FER were only performed to around 10–9 due to the extensive simulation time that would be required to obtain significant simulation results at the error levels desired. Furthermore, the fitted curve results were applied to a finer resolution for the SNR at 0.01-dB interval instead of the 0.05-dB interval limitation used in the simulation. All the possible combinations of the coding types, signal modulations, coding rates, frame sizes, and the extension of BER and FER curves would enable users to capture a wide range of link performances that directly relates to the addition of higher level networking data encapsulated in a frame. The curve fitting results also led to the modeling of the optical link error rate performance by solving for coding gain, FER_BER SNR delta, coded optical BER-SNR, and coded optical FER–SNR.

Communication link analysis↗

NASA NTRS2019

Development of Human-Spacesuit Interaction Models

Today’s astronaut corps represents a wide range of various anthropometric dimensions. Accommodating this wide range of anthropometry and protecting for size variations in future crews, makes spacesuit sizing and fit a challenging and necessary aspect of suit development. Spacesuit fit can play an important role in performance, but a suit fit assessment, especially in dynamic postures, is difficult without extensive human-in-the-loop testing. One approach to address this issue is to model and simulate the human-spacesuit interactions for a target population early in the design process. The Anthropometry and Biomechanics Facility (ABF) at the NASA Johnson Space Center has been working to incorporate parametric human models based on 3D full-body scan data with spacesuit CAD models that can be driven by the user or imported motion capture data. An articulated spacesuit model combined with a poseable high-fidelity human model allows comparisons to be made between spacesuit capabilities and normal human ranges of motion. Furthermore, predictions can be made as to how a specific individual or population may perform in the suit from the perspective of reach and mobility. In this paper, we will present case study examples of reach, mobility, and fit analyses that can be done with these models and the methodology developed thus far. These models have the potential to become powerful tools for evaluating future spacesuit design architectures from the perspective of optimizing fit and performance.

Jarvis, Sarah↗

NASA NTRS2020

Thermal Analysis, Compressibility, and Decomposition of Synthetic Bastnäsite-(La) to Lanthanum Oxyfluoride

Understanding basic material properties of rare earth element (REE) bearing minerals such as their phase stability and equations of state can assist in understanding how economically viable deposits might form. Bastnäsite is the most commonly mined REE bearing mineral. We synthesized the lanthanum-fluoride end member, bastnäsite-(La) (LaCO3F), and investigated its thermal behavior and decomposition products from 298 K to 1173 K under ambient pressure conditions through thermogravimetric analysis, differential scanning calorimetry, evolved gas analysis, and high temperature powder X-ray diffraction. We also investigated the compressibility of bastnäsite-(La) via single crystal X-ray diffraction in diamond anvil cells at an ambient temperature up to 11.3 GPa and from 4.9 GPa to 7.7 GPa up to 673 K. At ambient pressure, bastnäsite-(La) was stable up to 598 K in air, where it decomposed into CO2 and tetragonal γ-LaOF. Above 948 K, cubic α-LaOF is stable. High temperature X-ray diffraction data were used to fit the Fei thermal equation of state and the thermal expansion coefficient α(sub 298) for all three materials. Bastnäsite-(La) was fit from 298 K to 723 K with V(sub 0) = 439.82 Å(exp 3), α(sub 298) = 4.32 × 10(exp -5) K(exp -1), a(sub 0) = −1.68 × 10(exp -5) K(exp -1), a(sub 1) = 8.34 × 10(exp -8) K(exp -1), and a(sub 2) = 3.126 K(exp -1). Tetragonal γ-LaOF was fit from 723 K to 948 K with V(sub 0) = 96.51 Å(exp 3), α(sub 298) = 2.95×10(exp -4) K(exp -1), a(sub 0) = −2.41×10(exp -5) K(exp -1), a(sub 1) = 2.42×10(exp -7) K(exp -1), and a(sub 2) = 41.147 K(exp -1). Cubic α-LaOF was fit from 973 K to 1123 K with V(sub 0) = 190.71 Å(exp 3), α(sub 298) = −1.12×10(exp -5) K(exp -1), a(sub 0) = 2.36×10(exp -4) K(exp -1), a(sub 1) = −1.73 × 10(exp -7) K(exp -1), and a(sub 2) = −17.362 K(exp -1). An ambient temperature third order Birch–Murnaghan equation of state was fit with V(sub 0) = 439.82 Å(exp 3), K(sub 0) = 105 GPa, and K’ = 5.58.

Bastnäsite↗

NASA NTRS2021

Retrieval Algorithm for the Column CO2 Mixing Ratio from Pulsed Multi-Wavelength Lidar Measurements

The retrieval algorithm for the column mixing ratio of CO2 from the measurements of a pulsed multi-wavelength integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar is described. The lidar samples the shape of the 1572.33 nm CO2 absorption line at 15 or 30 wavelengths. The algorithm uses a least-squares fit between the CO2 line shape computed from a layered 10 atmosphere model to that sampled by the lidar. In addition to the column average CO2 dry air mole fraction (XCO2), several other parameters are also solved simultaneously from the fit. These include the Doppler shift in the received laser signal wavelengths, the product of the surface reflectivity and atmospheric transmission and a linear trend in the lidar receiver’s spectral response. The algorithm can also be used to solve for the average water vapor mixing ratio, which causes a secondary absorption in the wings of the CO2 absorption line under high humidity conditions. The least-squares fit is linearized about the 15 expected XCO2 value which allows the use of a standard linear least-squares fitting method and software tools. The standard deviation of the retrieved XCO2 is obtained from covariance matrix of the fit. An averaging kernel is defined similarly to that used for passive trace-gas sounding. Examples are presented of using the algorithm to retrieve XCO2 from the measurements from NASA Goddard’s airborne CO2 Sounder lidar made at a constant altitude and during spiral-down maneuvers.

Xiaoli Sun↗

NASA NTRS2021

Dealing with Ion LET Uncertainties: An Application of Generalized Linear Models

Although most SEE rate estimation methods presume a fit to SEE cross section vs. LET, fitting SEE data is challenging because the data are not compatible with the assumptions of many common fitting techniques (e.g. linear regression. The difficulty of fitting such data is compounded when the LET of the ion responsible for an SEE is uncertain. We modify a Generalized Linear Model SEE data fitting methodology to accommodate uncertain LET and apply the method to the problem of backside heavy-ion SEE testing to demonstrate the utility of the method, explore the dependence of systematic errors that arise from improper treatment of LET uncertainty and develop guidelines for minimizing such systematic errors when proper treatment is not possible. Additional applications are suggested and assessed for suitability of treatment by the model.

Single-event effects↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mitigating Headward Fluid Shifts with Venoconstrictive Thigh Cuffs during Spaceflight

Venoconstrictive thigh cuffs (VTC) are a mechanical countermeasure capable of attenuating the spaceflight induced headward fluid shift, and thus may be a viable spaceflight associated neuro-ocular syndrome (SANS) countermeasure. Crewmembers can use VTC to mitigate the headward fluid shift to aid in adapting to spaceflight. However, data are needed to determine if VTC affect ocular structures. PURPOSE The purpose of this study is to determine the efficacy of long duration use of VTC application to mitigate the spaceflight-induced headward fluid shift. We hypothesize that a VTC countermeasure will temporarily reverse the headward fluid shift and attenuate spaceflight-induced changes of internal jugular vein (IJV) cross-sectional area, IJV pressure, stroke volume, cardiac output, intraocular pressure (IOP), and optic nerve head and retinal morphology. METHODS This study will evaluate the effectiveness of VTC countermeasure application on the headward fluid shift, as well as cardiovascular and ocular variables. VTC during spaceflight will be worn for an extended duration (up to 6 hours) with data collected at three time points (30 minutes, 3 hours, and 6 hours) to characterize the temporal profile of key fluid shift outcome measures of the vascular fluid shift, IOP, and ocular structure changes. Ten astronauts will be recruited to participate and will be studied before and during approximately 180-day International Space Station (ISS) spaceflight missions. Baseline data collection will occur approximately 90-days before launch (Figure). Preflight, each leg of the crewmember will be measured to determine the VTC cuff size and a cuff fit check session will occur prior to the preflight baseline ground imaging to verify the appropriate fit measured via a surface contact pressure. Prior to donning the VTC, baseline measures without VTC will be collected seated, supine, and supine followed by data collection with the VTC. The baseline data collection will include ultrasound (IJV area and pressure, stroke volume and cardiac output), brachial blood pressure and heart rate, optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging (total retinal thickness and choroid thickness), and IOP. An inflight cuff fit check session, same as the preflight fit check, will occur prior to VTC use on ISS. The inflight VTC experiment will be conducted early (FD45) and late (R-45) to determine if mission duration affects VTC fit and the efficacy of fluid redistribution. A system usability scale comfort questionnaire will be included in each VTC session to capture feedback from crewmembers regarding the comfort and usability of the VTC. SCIENTIFIC & MISSION IMPACT Results will narrow knowledge gaps described in the Human Research Roadmap to mitigate the headward fluid shift during spaceflight and help NASA to 1) determine the efficacy of extended use VTC application to mitigate the spaceflight-induced headward fluid shift and 2) further the understanding of the use of VTC on vascular fluid shifts, IOP, and ocular structure during spaceflight. Supported by NASA Human Research Program Directed Research. Figure. Detailed Testing Schedule. Baseline data collection at L-90 will be performed in a randomized order of position.

J V Jasien↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Aerobic Standards for Lunar Surface Extravehicular Activities

Introduction: As NASA prepares to return to the Moon, astronauts will need to be physically primed to successfully execute Extravehicular Activities (EVA) on the Lunar surface. Compared to past Apollo missions, Artemis missions will include EVAs of increased physical demand, frequency, intensity, and duration, thus requiring adequate fitness to successfully and safely complete mission objectives. The physical demand associated with partial gravity (g) EVAs on the Moon is expected to be greater compared to microgravity EVAs based on initial workload estimation. Currently, aerobic fitness standards for partial g EVAs are not well supported by high-fidelity data and require further research for establishing standards to protect crew health and performance during Lunar surface missions. Therefore, the aim of this investigation is to characterize metabolic data from Lunar analog simulations and in-flight crew population aerobic capacity data to validate the current NASA 3001 standard for celestial partial g aerobic fitness (aerobic capacity (VO_2pk) ≥36.5ml/kg/min). Methods: In order to evaluate aerobic fitness requirements for Lunar EVAs, the following were performed: 1) preliminary analysis of long-duration (6 hr) EVA analog simulations in the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) and the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) to evaluate expected metabolic rates for 1/6 g EVAs (NBL: n=1 female; ARGOS: n=1 male) and 2) assessment of the current NASA 3001 celestial surface EVA aerobic standard (aerobic capacity (VO_2pk) ≥36.5ml/kg/min) with data from an ISS astronaut population (n=30 male + 13 female) captured before and during space flight (flight day 15). Preliminary Results: Average fractional aerobic capacity during simulated EVAs were 33%±7% VO_2pk and 23.3±7% VO_2pk in the NBL and ARGOS, respectively. This was within a previously predicted 30–40% sustainable work rate. Average metabolic rates for some tasks performed in the NBL, such as traverse (40.4% VO_2pk) and ingress (47.1% VO_2pk) were higher than the predicted sustainable work range. In ARGOS, the tasks with the greatest metabolic rates were object relocation (34.2% VO_2pk) and incapacitated crew rescue (27.0% VO_2pk). Characterization of ISS crewmember aerobic capacity determined that the average preflight VO_2pk was 42.1±5.4 ml/kg/min for females and 37.5±5.4 ml/kg/min for males. At preflight, 21.5% of crewmembers were below the 36.5 ml/kg/min in-mission aerobic standard for celestial surface EVA as outlined in NASA-STD-3001. In-flight, both female and male crewmembers experienced reductions in VO_2pk (11.7% and 10.9%, respectively), such that, during the mission, 62% of crewmembers were below the standard aerobic capacity level for celestial surface EVAs. Conclusions: Our preliminary data suggest that while average metabolic rates for simulated Lunar EVA fall within the 30–40% sustainable work range, task specific metabolic rates exceed this range and may indicate that greater fitness is necessary for more strenuous tasks expected to be performed on the Lunar surface. Additionally, deconditioning due to space flight results in most crewmembers falling below the current celestial partial g EVA standard, which may increase risk to crew health and performance and completing mission objectives for surface missions. Further research is necessary in Artemis-specific analog environments to validate the current NASA-3001 aerobic standard for celestial EVAs. Additionally, work is ongoing to validate the current NASA-3001 strength standard for celestial EVAs.

N.C. Strock↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Aerobic Capacity in Relation to Simulated Lunar Surface Extravehicular Activities

INTRODUCTION Astronauts will need to be physically prepared to successfully execute strenuous Extravehicular Activities (EVA)on the Lunar surface. Compared to Apollo missions, Artemis missions will include EVAs of increased physical demand, frequency, and duration, thus requiring adequate fitness to successfully and safely complete mission objectives and potential contingency scenarios. Currently, aerobic fitness standards for partial gravity (g)surface EVAs are not well supported by high-fidelity EVA analog data. This investigation aims to characterize metabolic demands from Lunar analog EVA simulations in relation to the current NASA standards for celestial partial-g aerobic fitness(aerobic capacity (VO2pk) ≥36.5ml/kg/min). METHODS To evaluate current Lunar EVA aerobic fitness requirements, a pilot study was performed to characterize metabolic ratesduring6 hour simulated EVAs. The EVAs were performed in pressurized MKIII (n=2male) and xEMU (n=3 female) spacesuits offloaded to 1/6 g in the NASA Active Response Gravity Offload System. VO2pk was assessed via graded exercise testing on acycle ergometer and physical workload was quantified as percent ofVO2pk. RESULTS Four out of five subjects did not meet the current NASA celestial surface EVA aerobic standard (3 xEMU, 1MKIII;35.1±0.9 ml/kg/min). During simulated EVAs, subjects (xEMU: 35±1ml/kg/min; MKIII: 44±10ml/kg/min) worked at an average 36%VO2pk(xEMU) and 31% VO2pk(MKIII). For xEMU subjects, the tasks with the greatest average metabolic rates were 2km treadmill traverse(0% grade: 47.2%VO2pk[max 69.1%]), object relocation (45.2%VO2pk[max 60.5%]), and 1.5km traverse (0% grade: 45%VO2pk[max 59.7%]). For MKIII subjects, the tasks with the greatest average metabolic rates were 0.5km treadmill traverse (30% grade: 35.4% VO2pk[max 45.5%]), object relocation(31% VO2pk[max 40.8%]), and treadmill traverse (0% grade: 29.9%VO2pk[max 45.9%]). CONCLUSIONS While average metabolic rates for simulated Lunar EVA fall within sustainable work ranges of30–40% VO2pkand life support system limitations, task-specific metabolic rates exceed this range and may indicate that greater fitness is necessary for more strenuous tasks expected to be performed on the Lunar surface. As few subjects met the standard, more data is needed to adequately evaluate the NASA 3001 standard.

N C Strock↗

NASA NTRS2024

Advanced Pressure Garment Space Suit Sizing Considerations

Fitting a space suit to a person could be considered an art form. Establishing a repeatable fitcheck process to accommodate the full anthropometric range of test subjects for a single suit design is a critical process to be able to prove suit functionality. Suited test subjects can have different preferences on how they fit inside a suit, and different suited test environments can lead to differences in certain suit sizing accommodations. Throughout this paper, the process of achieving an acceptable suit fit for test subjects will be discussed, along with sizing considerations for changes in suit design and test environments. Lessons learned from the Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) will be used to describe specific examples, along with key takeaways from additional NASA prototype mobility space suits. The suit fitcheck process starts with utilizing the anthropometric measurements of a test subject to evaluate their relation to the dimensions of space suit hardware in creating a predicted suit sizing configuration. From here, subjective comments and test team observations drive iterations to the suit sizing configuration to culminate in an acceptable suit fit for performance of further test evaluations. Understanding the relation of subjective comments to their impact on altering suit sizing is critical in establishing an acceptable suit fit.

spacesuit↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advanced Space Suit Sizing Considerations

spacesuit↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of 3-Flavour Neutrino Oscillation Parameters in the NOvA Experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment consisting of two functionally identical tracking calorimeters, a Near and Far Detector, that measure neutrino interactions induced by the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory’s NuMI beam at baselines of 1 km and 810 km, respectively. The NuMI beam can be configured to produce either a primary ν µ neutrino or $\bar{ν}$ µ anti-neutrino beam. Neutrino oscillations are observed and measured by the analysis of ν µ + $\bar{ν}$ µ disappearance and νe + $\bar{ν}$ e appearance in the beam, comparing the neutrino energy spectra in the Near and Far detectors means that neutrino oscillation parameters sin 2 θ 23 , |Δ$m^2_{32}$|, and δ CP can be constrained. This thesis presents the 2018 NOvA ν µ +$\bar{ν}$ µ disappearance, ν e +$\bar{ν}$ e appearance, and combined analyses using both neutrino and anti-neutrino data, where oscillation fits have been performed, where possible, on an event-by-event basis rather than on a bin-by-bin basis as has conventionally been used in NOvA oscillation analyses. This allows for better precision in applying both neutrino oscillation probabilities and systematic uncertainties. Furthermore, oscillation analyses for the disappearance, appearance, and combined channels are presented using an unbinned likelihood fit and compared with the equivalent binned χ 2 likelihood fit used in the standard analysis. The 14 ktonne detector equivalent beam exposures used for this thesis are 8.85 × 10 20 and 6.91 × 10 20 protons on target for neutrino and antineutrino data respectively, corresponding to 5 years of NOvA data taking. A combined ν µ + $\bar{ν}$ µ disappearance and ν e + $\bar{ν}$ e appearance fit to the Far Detector data, assuming normal mass ordering and using the event-by-event oscillation and unbinned fitting methodologies, produces oscillation parameter constraints of Δ$m^2_{32}$ = (2.50$^{+0.08}_{-0.06}$) × 10 -3 eV 2 , sin 2 θ 23 = 0.59$^{+0.02}_{-0.04}$, and δ CP = 0.72$^{+0.5}_{-0.9}$π.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Variance in offspring sex ratio and maternal allocation in a highly invasive mammal

Abstract Skewed sex ratios at birth are widely reported in wild populations, however, the extent to which parents are able to modulate the sex ratio of offspring to maximize their own fitness remains unclear. This is particularly true for highly polytocous species as maximizing fitness may include trade‐offs between sex ratio and the size and number of offspring in litters. In such cases, it may be adaptive for mothers to adjust both the number of offspring per litter and offspring sex to maximize individual fitness. Investigating maternal sex allocation in wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) under stochastic environmental conditions, we predicted that under favorable conditions, high‐quality mothers (larger and older) would produce male‐biased litters and invest more in producing larger litters with more males. We also predicted sex ratio would vary relative to litter size, with a male‐bias among smaller litters. We found evidence that increasing wild boar ancestry, maternal age and condition, and resource availability may weakly contribute to male‐biased sex ratio, however, unknown factors not measured in this study are assumed to be more influential. High‐quality mothers allocated more resources to litter production, but this relationship was driven by adjustment of litter size, not sex ratio. There was no relationship between sex ratio and litter size. Collectively, our results emphasized that adjustment of litter size appeared to be the primary reproductive characteristic manipulated in wild pigs to increase fitness rather than adjustment of offspring sex ratio.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Water dynamics in C–S–H and M-S-H cement pastes: A revised jump-diffusion and rotation-diffusion model

The Quasi-Elastic Neutron Scattering (QENS) spectra from four cement pastes are re-analyzed by a new revised jump-diffusion and rotation-diffusion model (rJRM). From the QENS fit, it can be seen that the rJRM is an improved model to fit QENS spectra within the whole detected neutron energy transfer and scattering vector. By the rJRM fitting, the structure parameters extracted from QENS spectra show that both the additives aluminum-silicate nanotubes (ASN) and carboxyl group functionalized ASN (ASN-COOH) can improve magnesium-silicate-hydrate (M-S-H) toward calcium-silicate-hydrate (C–S–H) direction in mechanical properties, but the improvement is weakened with decreasing temperatures. The extracted dynamical parameters show that there is a dynamic anomaly near 230 K in not only translational but also rotational diffusion of water confined in all the investigated samples. In conclusion, the anomaly in rotational diffusion is new compared with those results obtained by the QENS fit using other models.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Opportunities and Challenges for Machine Learning-Assisted Enzyme Engineering

Enzymes can be engineered at the level of their amino acid sequences to optimize key properties such as expression, stability, substrate range, and catalytic efficiency or even to unlock new catalytic activities not found in nature. Because the search space of possible proteins is vast, enzyme engineering usually involves discovering an enzyme starting point that has some level of the desired activity followed by directed evolution to improve its “fitness” for a desired application. Recently, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool to complement this empirical process. ML models can contribute to (1) starting point discovery by functional annotation of known protein sequences or generating novel protein sequences with desired functions and (2) navigating protein fitness landscapes for fitness optimization by learning mappings between protein sequences and their associated fitness values. In this Outlook, we explain how ML complements enzyme engineering and discuss its future potential to unlock improved engineering outcomes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Evolutionary Algorithm to Personalize Stool-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening

Fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) is an established method for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Measured FIT-concentrations are associated with both present and future risk of CRC, and may be used for personalized screening. However, evaluation of personalized screening is computationally challenging. In this study, a broadly applicable algorithm is presented to efficiently optimize personalized screening policies that prescribe screening intervals and FIT-cutoffs, based on age and FIT-history. We present a mathematical framework for personalized screening policies and a bi-objective evolutionary algorithm that identifies policies with minimal costs and maximal health benefits. The algorithm is combined with an established microsimulation model (MISCAN-Colon), to accurately estimate the costs and benefits of generated policies, without restrictive Markov assumptions. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated in three experiments. In Experiment 1, a relatively small benchmark problem, the optimal policies were known. The algorithm approached the maximum feasible benefits with a relative difference of 0.007%. Experiment 2 optimized both intervals and cutoffs, Experiment 3 optimized cutoffs only. Optimal policies in both experiments are unknown. Compared to policies recently evaluated for the USPSTF, personalized screening increased health benefits up to 14 and 4.3%, for Experiments 2 and 3, respectively, without adding costs. Generated policies have several features concordant with current screening recommendations. The method presented in this paper is flexible and capable of optimizing personalized screening policies evaluated with computationally-intensive but established simulation models. It can be used to inform screening policies for CRC or other diseases. For CRC, more debate is needed on what features a policy needs to exhibit to make it suitable for implementation in practice.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Heterogeneous multiphase flow properties of volcanic rocks and implications for noble gas transport from underground nuclear explosions

Of interest to the Underground Nuclear Explosion Signatures Experiment are patterns and timing of explosion-generated noble gases that reach the land surface. The impact of potentially simultaneous flow of water and gas on noble gas transport in heterogeneous fractured rock is a current scientific knowledge gap. This article presents field and laboratory data to constrain and justify a triple continua conceptual model with multimodal multiphase fluid flow constitutive equations that represents host rock matrix, natural fractures, and induced fractures from past underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) at Aqueduct and Pahute Mesas, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA. Capillary pressure from mercury intrusion and direct air–water measurements on volcanic tuff core samples exhibit extreme spatial heterogeneity (i.e., variation over multiple orders of magnitude). Petrographic observations indicate that heterogeneity derives from multimodal pore structures in ash-flow tuff components and post-depositional alteration processes. Comparisons of pre- and post-UNE samples reveal different pore size distributions that are due in part to microfractures. Capillary pressure relationships require a multimodal van Genuchten (VG) constitutive model to best fit the data. Relative permeability estimations based on unimodal VG fits to capillary pressure can be different from those based on bimodal VG fits, implying the choice of unimodal vs. bimodal fits may greatly affect flow and transport predictions of noble gas signatures. The range in measured capillary pressure and predicted relative permeability curves for a given lithology and between lithologies highlights the need for future modeling to consider spatially distributed properties.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploring new physics with O(keV) electron recoils in direct detection experiments

Motivated by the recent XENON 1T results, we explore various new physics models that can be discovered through searches for electron recoils in O(keV)-threshold direct-detection experiments. First, we consider the absorption of axion-like particles, dark photons, and scalars, either as dark matter relics or being produced directly in the Sun. In the latter case, we find that keV mass bosons produced in the Sun provide an adequate fit to the data but are excluded by stellar cooling constraints. We address this tension by introducing a novel Chameleon-like axion model, which can explain the excess while evading the stellar bounds. We find that absorption of bosonic dark matter provides a viable explanation for the excess only if the dark matter is a dark photon or an axion. In the latter case, photophobic axion couplings are necessary to avoid X-ray constraints. Second, we analyze models of dark matter-electron scattering to determine which models might explain the excess. Standard scattering of dark matter with electrons is generically in conflict with data from lower-threshold experiments. Momentum-dependent interactions with a heavy mediator can fit the data with dark matter mass heavier than a GeV but are generically in tension with collider constraints. Next, we consider dark matter consisting of two (or more) states that have a small mass splitting. The exothermic (down)scattering of the heavier state to the lighter state can fit the data for keV mass splittings. Finally, we consider a subcomponent of dark matter that is accelerated by scattering off cosmic rays, finding that dark matter interacting though an O(100 keV)-mass mediator can fit the data. The cross sections required in this scenario are, however, typically challenged by complementary probes of the light mediator. Throughout our study, we implement an unbinned Monte Carlo analysis and use an improved energy reconstruction of the XENON 1T events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗