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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Latent bone modelling for estimation of plutonium concentration in skeleton of former nuclear workers

Abstract The skeleton is a major plutonium retention site in the human body. Estimation of the total plutonium activity in the skeleton is a challenging problem. For most tissue donors at the United States Transuranium and Uranium Registries, a limited number of bone samples is available. The skeleton activity is calculated using plutonium activity concentration (Cskel) and skeleton weight. In this study, latent bone modelling was used to estimate Cskel from the limited number of analysed bone samples. Data from 13 non-osteoporotic whole-body donors were used to develop latent bone model (LBM) to estimate Cskel for seven cases with four to eight analysed bone samples. LBM predictions were compared to Cskel estimated using an arithmetic mean in terms of accuracy and precision. For the studied cases, LBM offered a significant reduction of uncertainty of Cskel estimate.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Assessment of the point-source method for estimating dose rates to members of the public from exposure to patients with 131I thyroid treatment

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) initiated a contract with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to calculate radiation dose rates to members of the public that may result from exposure to patients recently administered iodine-131 ( 131 I) as part of medical therapy. The main purpose was to compare dose rate estimates based on a point source and target with values derived from more realistic simulations that considered the time-dependent distribution of 131 I in the patient and attenuation of emitted photons by the patient’s tissues. The external dose rate estimates were derived using Monte Carlo methods and two representations of the Phantom with Movable Arms and Legs, previously developed by ORNL and the USNRC, to model the patient and a nearby member of the public. Dose rates to tissues and effective dose rates were calculated for distances ranging from 10 to 300 cm between the phantoms and compared to estimates based on the point-source method, as well as to results of previous studies that estimated exposure from 131 I patients. The point-source method overestimates dose rates to members of the public in very close proximity to an 131 I patient but is a broadly accurate method of dose rate estimation at separation distances of 300 cm or more at times closer to administration.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Bias-hardened estimators of patchy screening profiles

Detecting anisotropic screening of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) holds the promise of revealing the distribution of gas in the Universe, characterizing the complex processes of galaxy formation and feedback, and studying the epoch of reionization. Estimators for inhomogeneous screening, including some recently proposed small-scale (stacked) estimators, are quadratic or higher order in the CMB temperature or polarization fields and are therefore subject to contamination from CMB lensing. We review the origin of this lensing bias and show that, when stacking on unWISE galaxies, the expected lensing bias dominates the signal if left unmitigated. Hardening techniques that null the lensing bias have been proposed for standard quadratic estimators, whereas only approximate methods have been proposed for stacked estimators. In conclusion, we review these techniques and apply the former to stacked estimators, presenting several strategies (including the optimal strategy) to null lensing contamination when stacking on any large-scale structure tracer.

Cosmic microwave background↗

Consistency testing for robust phase estimation

In this work, we present an extension to the robust phase estimation protocol, which can identify incorrect results that would otherwise lie outside the expected statistical range. Robust phase estimation is increasingly a method of choice for applications such as estimating the effective process parameters of noisy hardware, but its robustness is dependent on the noise satisfying certain threshold assumptions. We provide consistency checks that can indicate when those thresholds have been violated, which can be difficult or impossible to test directly. We test these consistency checks for several common noise models, and identify two possible checks with high accuracy in locating the point in a robust phase estimation run at which further estimates should not be trusted. One of these checks may be chosen based on resource availability, or they can be used together in order to provide additional verification.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Lower bias, lower noise CMB lensing with foreground-hardened estimators

Extragalactic foregrounds in temperature maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) severely limit the ability of standard estimators to reconstruct the weak lensing potential. These foregrounds are not fully removable by multifrequency cleaning or masking and can lead to large biases if not properly accounted for. For foregrounds made of a number of unclustered point sources, an estimator for the source amplitude can be derived and deprojected, removing any bias to the lensing reconstruction. We show with simulations that all of the extragalactic foregrounds in temperature can be approximated by a collection of sources with identical profiles, and that a simple bias hardening technique is effective at reducing any bias to lensing, at a minimal noise cost. In this work, we compare the performance and bias to other methods such as "shear-only" reconstruction, and discuss how to jointly deproject any arbitrary number of foregrounds, each with an arbitrary profile. In particular, for a Simons Observatory-like experiment foreground-hardened estimators allow us to extend the maximum multipole used in the reconstruction, increasing the overall statistical power by ~50% over the standard quadratic estimator, both in auto and cross-correlation. We conclude that source hardening outperforms the standard lensing quadratic estimator both in auto- A nd cross-correlation, and in terms of lensing signal-to-noise and foreground bias.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Constraining gravity with a new precision 𝐸 𝐺 estimator using Planck + SDSS BOSS data

The 𝐸 𝐺 statistic is a discriminating probe of gravity developed to test the prediction of general relativity (GR) for the relation between gravitational potential and clustering on the largest scales in the observable Universe. We present a novel high-precision estimator for the 𝐸 𝐺 statistic using CMB lensing and galaxy clustering correlations that carefully matches the effective redshifts across the different measurement components to minimize corrections. A suite of detailed tests is performed to characterize the estimator’s accuracy, its sensitivity to assumptions and analysis choices, and the non-Gaussianity of the estimator’s uncertainty is characterized. After finalization of the estimator, it is applied to Planck CMB lensing and SDSS CMASS and LOWZ galaxy data. We report the first harmonic space measurement of 𝐸 𝐺 using the LOWZ sample and CMB lensing and also updated constraints using the final CMASS sample and the latest Planck CMB lensing map. We find $\hat{𝐸}$$^{Planck+CMASS}_{𝐺}$ = 0.3⁢6$^{+0.06}_{−0.05}$⁢(68.27%) and $\hat{𝐸}$$^{Planck+LOWZ}_{𝐺}$ = 0.4⁢0$^{+0.11}_{−0.09}$⁢(68.27%), with additional subdominant systematic error budget estimates of 2% and 3%, respectively. Using Ω m,0 constraints from Planck and SDSS BAO observations, Λ⁢CDM-GR predicts 𝐸$^{GR}_ {𝐺}$⁡(𝑧 =0.555) = 0.401 ± 0.005 and 𝐸$^{GR}_{𝐺}$⁡(𝑧 =0.316) = 0.452 ± 0.005 at the effective redshifts of the CMASS and LOWZ based measurements. We report the measurement to be in good statistical agreement with the Λ⁢CDM-GR prediction and report that the measurement is also consistent with the more general GR prediction of scale independence for 𝐸 𝐺 . Furthermore, this work provides a carefully constructed and calibrated statistic with which 𝐸 𝐺 measurements can be confidently and accurately obtained with upcoming survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Improving neutrino energy estimation of charged-current interaction events with recurrent neural networks in MicroBooNE

We present a deep learning-based method for estimating the neutrino energy of charged-current neutrino-argon interactions. We employ a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture for neutrino energy estimation in the MicroBooNE experiment, utilizing liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detector technology. Traditional energy estimation approaches in LArTPCs, which largely rely on reconstructing and summing visible energies, often experience sizable biases and resolution smearing because of the complex nature of neutrino interactions and the detector response. The estimation of neutrino energy can be improved after considering the kinematics information of reconstructed final-state particles. Utilizing kinematic information of reconstructed particles, the deep learning-based approach shows improved resolution and reduced bias for the muon neutrino Monte Carlo simulation sample compared to the traditional approach. In order to address the common concern about the effectiveness of this method on experimental data, the RNN-based energy estimator is further examined and validated with dedicated data-simulation consistency tests using MicroBooNE data. We also assess its potential impact on a neutrino oscillation study after accounting for all statistical and systematic uncertainties and show that it enhances physics sensitivity. This method has good potential to improve the performance of other physics analyses. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Minimax Quantum Tomography: Estimators and Relative Entropy Bounds

A minimax estimator has the minimum possible error (“risk”) in the worst case. Here we construct the first minimax estimators for quantum state tomography with relative entropy risk. The minimax risk of nonadaptive tomography scales as O (1/$\sqrt{N}$ ) —in contrast to that of classical probability estimation, which is O (1/N) —where N is the number of copies of the quantum state used. We trace this deficiency to sampling mismatch: future observations that determine risk may come from a different sample space than the past data that determine the estimate. Lastly, this makes minimax estimators very biased, and we propose a computationally tractable alternative with similar behavior in the worst case, but superior accuracy on most states.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

On Projection of Safe Operation for Grid-Following Inverters - Grid Parameter Estimation

This work investigates the projection of safe operation for grid-following inverters using a reference model. This work applies recursive-least square and model reference adaptive estimation techniques to estimate the unknown grid parameters. The estimated grid parameters are used in a dynamic reference model to project the safe operation of the inverter. This work also demonstrates that the controller nonlinearity and parameter variations can cause unsafe operations, such as unexpected instability at low power levels, namely hidden mode of instability. This instability issue in the nominal operating range may occur for given control parameters in a weak-grid condition. The dynamic reference model for PQ-controlled inverters is applied to analyze this instability issue using the estimated grid parameters. Both adaptive identification techniques can estimate the unknown parameters accurately, and the dynamic reference model can safeguard inverters from an unsafe operation, i.e., hidden instability, by examining the incoming new power setpoints before engaging them to the local controller. The findings are experimentally verified using a small-scale two-level 208 V, 5 kVA inverter feeding a 12 kW NHR 9410 power grid emulator.

Hossen, Tareq↗

Cycle-by-cycle Delay Estimation at Signalized Intersections by using Machine Learning and Simulated Video Detection Data

Accurate estimation of delay is crucial for efficient traffic signal operations. Estimation of delay in the real-time manner using traditional loop detectors requires advanced detectors (in addition to stop-bar detection). In cases when this detection layout is not in place, delay estimates are approximated with a lower accuracy. Video detection is one of the most frequently deployed detection systems at signalized intersections in recent years. In most cases video detection operates in the same way as traditional inductive loops. However, when coupled with computer vision algorithms, video detection systems could be used to retrieve additional information (e.g., vehicular arrivals and departures) that cannot be taken out from the conventional systems (e.g., long stop-bar loop detectors). Although present for several decades, video detection data were not frequently examined for delay estimation purposes. In this study, we proposed a novel delay estimation model which can be developed with only data from stop-bar video detectors. Relevant data were collected from a simulation model of 11 signalized intersections at downtown Chattanooga, TN and processed to create needed inputs for model development. With the use of multigene genetic programming the authors developed a delay model that outperforms accuracy of multi regression model. Furthermore, authors evaluated the developed model by comparison with the other benchmark delay models, such as HCM and approach delay model. It was found that the developed MGGP delay model outperforms benchmark models for a wide range of traffic and signal operation conditions.

Erdagi, Ismet Goksad↗

Towards Smart Grids Enhanced Situation Awareness: A Bi-Level Quasi-Static State Estimation Model

Smart Grid situational awareness is provided by Energy Management Systems. A core process of these systems is State Estimation. The great majority of state estimators model the Smart Grid through a set of nonlinear algebraic equations, named the measurement model. Problem formulation considers the Gauss solution. Several model improvements have been presented regarding the Gauss solution, aiming between others to provide measurement noise robustness to the state estimation process. While considerable effort has been focused on such developments, state estimation is still constrained by the implicit modelling error, and thus inevitably vulnerable to cyber-threats. In this work, a state estimation bi-level formal model is presented towards Smart Grids enhanced situational awareness considering the concepts of synthetic measurements and innovation. Comparative test results with the state-of-the-art on the IEEE 14-bus system are presented highlighting improved situational awareness to bad data. Easy-to-implement model, without hard-to-derive parameters, built-on the classic weighted least squares solution, highlight potential aspects for real-life implementation.

cyber security↗

Distribution System State Estimation Using a Multiple Iteration Extended Kalman Filter Approach

To support the operation of modern distribution systems, operators require real-time visibility into system states. Due to a lack of measurements and unbalanced operation, the state estimation in distribution systems is challenging as compared to transmission systems. This paper proposes the utilization of a Multiple Iteration - Extended Kalman Filter based approach for the distribution system state estimation. This modified version of the baseline extended Kalman filter iterates over the update step multiple times thereby reducing the estimation error. The proposed algorithm along with the auxiliary algorithms such as bad data detection is integrated into a co-simulation environment. Case studies show that the proposed state estimation method can result in a lesser estimation error as compared to the baseline approach.

Bhatti, Bilal Ahmad↗

Effect of retransmission and retrodiction on estimation and fusion in long-haul sensor networks

In a long-haul sensor network, sensors are remotely deployed over a large geographical area to perform certain tasks, such as target tracking. In this work, we study the scenario where sensors take measurements of one or more dynamic targets and send state estimates of the targets to a fusion center via satellite links. The severe loss and delay inherent over the satellite channels reduce the number of estimates successfully arriving at the fusion center, thereby limiting the potential fusion gain and resulting in suboptimal accuracy performance of the fused estimates. In addition, the errors in target-sensor data association can also degrade the estimation performance. To mitigate the effect of imperfect communications on state estimation and fusion, we consider retransmission and retrodiction. The system adopts certain retransmission-based transport protocols so that lost messages can be recovered over time. Besides, retrodiction/smoothing techniques are applied so that the chances of incurring excess delay due to retransmission are greatly reduced. We analyze the extent to which retransmission and retrodiction can improve the performance of delay-sensitive target tracking tasks under variable communication loss and delay conditions. Lastly, simulation results of a ballistic target tracking application are shown in the end to demonstrate the validity of our analysis.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A Two-Stage Kalman Filter Approach for Robust and Real-Time Power System State Estimation

As electricity demand continues to grow and renewable energy increases its penetration in the power grid, realtime state estimation becomes essential for system monitoring and control. Recent development in phasor technology makes it possible with high-speed time-synchronized data provided by Phasor Measurement Units (PMU). In this paper we present a two-stage Kalman filter approach to estimate the static state of voltage magnitudes and phase angles, as well as the dynamic state of generator rotor angles and speeds. Kalman filters achieve optimal performance only when the system noise characteristics have known statistical properties (zero-mean, Gaussian, and spectrally white). However in practice the process and measurement noise models are usually difficult to obtain. Thus we have developed the Adaptive Kalman Filter with Inflatable Noise Variances (AKF with InNoVa), an algorithm that can efficiently identify and reduce the impact of incorrect system modeling and/or erroneous measurements. In stage one, we estimate the static state from raw PMU measurements using the AKF with InNoVa; then in stage two, the estimated static state is fed into an extended Kalman filter to estimate the dynamic state. Simulations demonstrate its robustness to sudden changes of system dynamics and erroneous measurements.

Zhang, Jinghe↗

Joint Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation in a Community

Distribution grid planning, control, and optimization require accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric load in the system. Most of the small residential solar PV systems are installed behind-the-meter making only the net load readings available to the utilities. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for joint disaggregation of the net load readings of a group of customers into the solar PV generation and electric load. Our algorithm synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model for individual solar PV generation estimation with a statistical model for joint load estimation. The electric loads for a group of customers are estimated jointly by a mixed hidden Markov model (MHMM) which enables modeling the general load consumption behavior present in all customers while acknowledging the individual differences. At the same time, the model can capture the change in load patterns over a time period by the hidden Markov states. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is evaluated using the net load, electric load, and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. Testing results show that our proposed method reduces the mean squared error of state-of-the-art net-load disaggregation algorithms by 67%.

behind-the-meter solar generation↗

A Procedure for Calculating the Vertical Space Height of the Sacrum When Determining Skeletal Height for Use in the Anatomical Method of Adult Stature Estimation

Abstract Estimating stature from skeletonized remains is one of the essential parameters in the development of a biological profile. A new procedure for determining skeletal height ( SKH ) incorporating the vertical space height ( VSH ) from the anterior margin of the sacral promontory to the superior margins of the acetabulae for use in the anatomical method of stature estimation is introduced. Regression equations for stature estimation were generated from measurements of 38 American males of European ancestry from the William M. Bass Donated Skeletal Collection. The modification to the procedure results in a SKH that is highly correlated with stature ( r = 0.925–0.948). Stature estimates have low standard errors of the estimate ranging from 21.79 to 25.95 mm, biases from to 0.50 to 0.94 mm, and accuracy rates from 17.71 mm to 19.45 mm. The procedure for determining the VSH , which replaces “S1 height” in traditional anatomical method models, is a key improvement to the method.

Hayashi, Atsuko↗

Switchgrass nitrogen response and estimated production costs on diverse sites

Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) has been the principal perennial herbaceous crop investigated for bioenergy production in North America given its high production potential, relatively low input requirements, and potential suitability for use on marginal lands. Few large trials have determined switchgrass yields at field scale on marginal lands, including analysis of production costs. Thus, a field–scale study was conducted to develop realistic yield and cost estimates for diverse regions of the USA. Objectives included measuring switchgrass response to fertility treatments (0, 56, and 112 kg N ha –1 ) and generating corresponding estimates of production costs for sites with diverse soil and climatic conditions. Trials occurred in Iowa, New York, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Virginia, USA. Cultivars and management practices were site specific, and field–scale equipment was used for all management practices. Input costs were estimated using final harvest–year (2015) prices, and equipment operation costs were estimated with the MachData model (2015). Switchgrass yields generally were below those reported elsewhere, averaging 6.3 Mg ha –1 across sites and treatments. Establishment stand percent ranged from 28% to 76% and was linked to initial year production. No response to N was observed at any site in the first production year. In subsequent seasons, N generally increased yields on well–drained soils; however, responses to N were nil or negative on less well–drained soils. Greatest percent increases in response to 112 kg N ha –1 were 57% and 76% on well–drained South Dakota and Virginia sites, where breakeven prices to justify N applications were over 70 and 63 Mg –1 , respectively. For some sites, typically promoted N application rates may be economically unjustified; it remains unknown whether a bioenergy industry can support the breakeven prices estimated for sites where N inputs had positive effects on switchgrass yield.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A county‐level estimation of renewable surface water and groundwater availability associated with potential large‐scale bioenergy feedstock production scenarios in the United States

Abstract This study examines fresh renewable water resources available for bioenergy feedstock production in the United States. The impacts of feedstock irrigation on surface and groundwater resources available to nonbioenergy sectors were quantified using a pair of water availability indexes: streamflow availability index and percolation flow availability index. The two metrics were applied to both historical (2008) and three possible future biomass production scenarios from the 2016 U.S. Billion‐Ton Report at the county level. For both historical and future scenarios, we found that the consumptive irrigation requirements for bioenergy feedstock account for <0.01% of annual streamflow in all but three counties in Nebraska. Results suggest that the irrigation demand of future biomass production could be supplied by annual renewable groundwater flow in about 94% of feedstock‐growing counties that use groundwater for irrigation, representing about 92% of production tonnage. Counties that require irrigation from nonrenewable groundwater resources are mostly located in the Northern Plains and Pacific regions. We also evaluated the sensitivity of crop water footprint estimation to soil moisture carryover by comparing blue water estimates from six different empirical and process‐based methods. Our findings suggest that accounting for preseason soil moisture is critical for representative blue water estimation, so that the irrigation water consumption is not overestimated. This is especially true in the Corn Belt region, where blue water estimates with and without preseason soil moisture would be about 1.9 versus 45.5 billion m 3 /year under the historical scenario. This difference is smaller in semiarid regions like the High Plains, but the blue water estimate can still triple if soil moisture is not considered. From the perspective of renewable surface water and groundwater resources, scaling feedstock production up in the High Plains and California will require careful planning integrated with water management strategies to improve water resource conservation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗