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Shadow energy functionals and potentials in Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics

In Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (BOMD) simulations based on the density functional theory (DFT), the potential energy and the interatomic forces are calculated from an electronic ground state density that is determined by an iterative self-consistent field optimization procedure, which, in practice, never is fully converged. The calculated energies and forces are, therefore, only approximate, which may lead to an unphysical energy drift and instabilities. Here, we discuss an alternative shadow BOMD approach that is based on backward error analysis. Instead of calculating approximate solutions for an underlying exact regular Born–Oppenheimer potential, we do the opposite. Instead, we calculate the exact electron density, energies, and forces, but for an underlying approximate shadow Born–Oppenheimer potential energy surface. In this way, the calculated forces are conservative with respect to the approximate shadow potential and generate accurate molecular trajectories with long-term energy stabilities. We show how such shadow Born–Oppenheimer potentials can be constructed at different levels of accuracy as a function of the integration time step, δt, from the constrained minimization of a sequence of systematically improvable, but approximate, shadow energy density functionals. For each energy functional, there is a corresponding ground state Born–Oppenheimer potential. These pairs of shadow energy functionals and potentials are higher-level generalizations of the original “zeroth-level” shadow energy functionals and potentials used in extended Lagrangian BOMD. The proposed shadow energy functionals and potentials are useful only within this extended dynamical framework, where also the electronic degrees of freedom are propagated as dynamical field variables together with the atomic positions and velocities. The theory is quite general and can be applied to MD simulations using approximate DFT, Hartree–Fock, or semi-empirical methods, as well as to coarse-grained flexible charge models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Monitoring of corrosion effects in pipes with multi-mode acoustic signals

Current commercial long-range guided wave inspection and monitoring technologies for pipes usually require establishment of certain specific acoustic modes for wave propagation and use a large number of sensors in a certain geometric arrangement (for example, uniformly-spaced arrays of sensors on a collar, placed around a pipe). This paper, in contrast, presents a long-range corrosion detection method in pipes based on multi-mode guided acoustic waves, generated and received using simple, single-element sensors. In this technique, available guided wave modes in any interrogated zone of the structure are automatically down-selected by the medium, and changes in energy distribution over the selected modes are analyzed through signal processing to monitor material loss or addition. Here, to investigate the feasibility of the proposed method, we have performed both experimental and numerical simulation studies on 50.8-mm (2-in)-diameter schedule-40 carbon steel pipes. In these studies, a linear chirp signal is injected in compression mode, perpendicular to the surface of the pipe, generating multi-mode, multi-directional guided waves that travel within the pipe wall. Corrosion effects in the pipes are simulated numerically and experimentally. To reduce errors in the measurement technique due to changes in the local or global temperature of the measured media, a universal temperature compensation algorithm is introduced. The experimental results show good agreement with simulation results, indicating that the proposed multi-mode wave generation and detection in a pipe could be used for long-range detection and monitoring of corrosion effects, such as pipe wall losses or solid material deposits.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Detection of reflector surface from near field phase measurements

The deviation of a reflector antenna surface from a perfect parabolic shape causes degradation of the performance of the antenna. The problem of determining the shape of the reflector surface in a reflector antenna using near field phase measurements is not a new one. A recent issue of the IEEE tansactions on Antennas and Propagation (June 1988) contained numerous descriptions of the use of these measurements: holographic reconstruction or inverse Fourier transform. Holographic reconstruction makes use of measurement of the far field of the reflector and then applies the Fourier transform relationship between the far field and the current distribution on the reflector surface. Inverse Fourier transformation uses the phase measurements to determine the far field pattern using the method of Kerns. After the far field pattern is established, an inverse Fourier transform is used to determine the phases in a plane between the reflector surface and the plane in which the near field measurements were taken. These calculations are time consuming since they involve a relatively large number of operations. A much faster method can be used to determine the position of the reflector. This method makes use of simple geometric optics to determine the path length of the ray from the feed to the reflector and from the reflector to the measurement point. For small physical objects and low frequencies, diffraction effects have a major effect on the error, and the algorithm provides incorrect results. It is believed that the effect is less noticeable for large distortions such as antenna warping, and more noticeable for small, localized distortions such as bumps and depressions such as might be caused by impact damage.

Ida, Nathan↗

Mass Inferencing Model Creation And Deployment To Lunar Excavation Robot, RASSOR

NASA’s Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot (RASSOR) Excavator is a teleoperated mobile robotic platform with a unique space regolith excavation capability. This research project developed functionality for inferencing regolith mass ingested during RASSOR operation, enhancing RASSOR’s ability to successfully complete ISRU missions. Radio wave propagation time to the Moon and back is ~2.56 seconds. Though teleoperation is possible with this delay, autonomous capability that enables RASSOR to plan and execute excavation missions intelligently and efficiently is preferred. To teleoperate or run autonomously, it is crucial for the quantity of regolith mass ingested by RASSOR to be available as a system state for efficient operation (e.g. knowledge of whether drums are full informs the task of highest priority, whether it be continuing to dig, or returning to a processing plant to offload regolith). A configurable data reduction and analysis pipeline was created to allow for straightforward incorporation of new data, such as that from lunar excavation, to improve model performance in new environments. Four distinct modeling approaches were employed in developing a mass inferencing approach that could work on RASSOR. All four models take in system states and output a mass prediction for each set of the robot’s bucket drums. Initial results from deployment to RASSOR and testing in a simulated lunar environment show that the models have <10% mean error during robot operation. Future work includes refinement of a model that estimates regolith mass in real-time during excavation as well as further testing of the developed models on the hardware.

ROS↗

Data-informed grid refinement to improve traveltime accuracy in the regional seismic traveltime (RSTT) model

The regional seismic traveltime (RSTT) model predicts traveltimes of regional seismic phases accounting for 3-D structure of the crust and the upper mantle on a global scale. Previous versions of the RSTT model have been implemented using nodes separated by ∼1° spacing across the globe. A regional-scale study using regional Pn and Pg traveltimes across Israel and the Middle East demonstrated that data driven, systematic grid refinement reduces traveltime residuals and enhances resolution of smaller tectonic features in regions having dense ray coverage. High density Pn ray coverage in the western US, Europe, Middle East and East Asia can likewise provide the resolution that allows systematic global grid refinement of the RSTT model. In this study, we use a large number of Pn ray paths originating from events located with an epicentral location uncertainty of 25 km (GT25) or better. We conduct targeted grid refinements at 1.0°, 0.5°, 0.25° and 0.125° on a global scale, producing a refined RSTT model that yields a 21.6 per cent reduction in median event location error in Europe and the Middle East, when compared with the original global RSTT model presented in Begnaud et al. The new model also resolves finer tectonic structures in regions with high Pn ray density.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Wave optics simulations for new soft x-ray beamlines at NSLS-II

In this work, we performed fully- and partially-coherent synchrotron emission and propagation simulations with the "Synchrotron Radiation Workshop" computer code to analyze the performance of two soft X-ray beamlines under development at the National Synchrotron Light Source II: Soft X-ray Nanoprobe (SXN), and Angle-Resolved Photoemission Spectroscopy (ARPES) and Resonant Inelastic X-ray Scattering (RIXS) Imaging (ARI). The SXN beamline intends to provide high flux and high spatial resolution coherent soft X-ray imaging capabilities using both zone plate and lensless coherent imaging techniques. The ARI beamline aims to perform high flux ARPES and RIXS experiments with a focal spot size at the sample approaching 100 nm using highly-demagnifying mirrors in Kirkpatrick-Baez geometry. To accurately calculate the resolution and the degree of X-ray coherence provided by the two state-of-the-art beamlines, partial coherence effects are required to be taken into account in wave optics simulations for these two beamlines. In this talk, beamline performance parameters such as spot size, degree of coherence, flux, and energy resolution at the sample are presented. The effects of mirror surface slope errors on beamline performance were studied and some suggestions for further optimization are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Verification of Real-Time WSA-ENLIL+Cone Simulations of CME Arrival-Time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B), and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 +/- 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 h. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014- December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

MHD / modeling / validation / forecasting / corona↗

FAIR Data and Interpretable AI Framework for Architectured Metamaterials (Final Report)

This research program established a transformative framework for the discovery and design of mechanical metamaterials, which are architected structures engineered to control physical phenomena like sound and vibration in ways natural materials cannot. To overcome the traditional reliance on trial-and-error, the project developed an interpretable Artificial Intelligence (AI) framework that moves beyond "black box" models to reveal the specific geometric patterns—such as "unit-cell templates"—that govern a material’s performance. A major breakthrough was the development of a hierarchical design method, which allows a single material to block vibrations across multiple frequency ranges simultaneously by layering patterns at different scales without them interfering with one another. This was further expanded to include irregular, graph-based designs that use spanning tree algorithms to ensure structural connectivity while allowing for customized, direction-dependent properties like stiffness and acoustic impedance. Beyond design, the project addressed the practicalities of real-world production by developing uncertainty quantification techniques that account for manufacturing defects and material variability, reducing the need for expensive physical testing by orders of magnitude. To speed up the discovery process, the team implemented Gaussian Process Regression and other surrogate models that provide accurate performance predictions at a fraction of the traditional computational cost. The AI-generated designs were successfully validated through fabrication of physical samples and wave propagation experiments, confirming their ability to accurately guide or reflect waves as predicted. By contributing these tools and high-quality FAIR benchmark datasets to the wider scientific community, this work provides a scalable foundation for advancing technologies in aerospace vibration control, medical imaging, and noise reduction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Study of Skin-Stringer Separation in Postbuckled Composite Aeronautical Structures

Aeronautical composite stiffened structures have the capability to carry loads deep into postbuckling, yet they are typically designed to operate below the buckling load to avoid potential issues with durability and structural integrity. Large out-of-plane postbuckling deformation of the skin can result in the opening of the skin-stringer interfaces, especially in the presence of defects, such as impact damage. To ensure that skin-stringer separation does not propagate in an unstable mode that can cause a complete collapse of the structure, a deeper understanding of the interaction between the postbuckling deformation and the development of damage is required. The present study represents a first step towards a methodology based on analysis and experiments to assess and improve the strength, life, and damage tolerance of stiffened composite structures subjected to postbuckling deformations. Two regions were identified in a four-stringer panel in which skin-stringer separation can occur, namely the region of maximum deflection and the region of maximum twisting. Both regions have been studied using a finite element model of a representative single-stringer specimen. For the region of maximum deflection, a seven-point bending configuration was used, in which five supports and two loading points induce buckling waves to the specimen. The region of maximum twisting was studied using an edge crack torsion configuration, with two supports and two loading points. These two configurations were studied by changing the positions of the supports and the loading points. An optimization procedure was carried out to minimize the error between the out-of-plane deformation of the representative single-stringer specimen and the corresponding region of the four-stringer panel.

Kootte, Lucas J.↗

Diffuse Attenuation Coefficient of Downwelling Irradiance: An Evaluation of Remote Sensing Methods

The propagation of downwelling irradiance at wavelength lambda from surface to a depth (z) in the ocean is governed by the diffuse attenuation coefficient, K(sup -)(sub d)(lambda). There are two standard methods for the derivation of K(sup -)(sub d)(lambda) in remote sensing, which both are based on empirical relationships involving the blue-to-green ratio of ocean color. Recently, a semianalytical method to derive K(sup -)(sub d)(lambda) from reflectance has also been developed. In this study, using K(sup -)(sub d)(490) and K(sup -)(sub d)(443) as examples, we compare the K(sup -)(sub d)(lambda) values derived from the three methods using data collected in three different regions that cover oceanic and coastal waters, with K(sup -)(sub d)(490) ranging from approximately 0.04 to 4.0 per meter. The derived values are compared with the data calculated from in situ measurements of the vertical profiles of downwelling irradiance. The comparisons show that the two standard methods produced satisfactory estimates of K(sup -)(sub d)(lambda) in oceanic waters where attenuation is relatively low but resulted in significant errors in coastal waters. The newly developed semianalytical method appears to have no such limitation as it performed well for both oceanic and coastal waters. For all data in this study the average of absolute percentage difference between the in situ measured and the semianalytically derived K(sup -)(sub d) is approximately 14% for lambda = 490 nm and approximately 11% for lambda = 443 nm.

Lee, Zhong-Ping↗

A Multi-Center Space Data System Prototype Based on CCSDS Standards

Deep space missions beyond earth orbit will require new methods of data communications in order to compensate for increasing Radio Frequency (RF) propagation delay. The Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) standard protocols Spacecraft Monitor & Control (SM&C), Asynchronous Message Service (AMS), and Delay/Disruption Tolerant Networking (DTN) provide such a method. However, the maturity level of this protocol stack is insufficient for mission inclusion at this time. This Space Data System prototype is intended to provide experience which will raise the Technical Readiness Level (TRL) of this protocol set. In order to reduce costs, future missions can take advantage of these standard protocols, which will result in increased interoperability between control centers. This prototype demonstrates these capabilities by implementing a realistic space data system in which telemetry is published to control center applications at the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL), the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), and the Johnson Space Center (JSC). Reverse publishing paths for commanding from each control center are also implemented. The target vehicle consists of realistic flight computer hardware running Core Flight Software (CFS) in the integrated Power, Avionics, and Power (iPAS) Pathfinder Lab at JSC. This prototype demonstrates a potential upgrade path for future Deep Space Network (DSN) modification, in which the automatic error recovery and communication gap compensation capabilities of DTN would be exploited. In addition, SM&C provides architectural flexibility by allowing new service providers and consumers to be added efficiently anywhere in the network using the common interface provided by SM&C's Message Abstraction Layer (MAL). In FY 2015, this space data system was enhanced by adding telerobotic operations capability provided by the Robot API Delegate (RAPID) family of protocols developed at NASA. RAPID is one of several candidates for consideration and inclusion in a new international standard being developed by the CCSDS Telerobotic Operations Working Group. Software gateways for the purpose of interfacing RAPID messages with the existing SM&C based infrastructure were developed. Telerobotic monitor, control, and bridge applications were written in the RAPID framework, which were then tailored to the NAO telerobotic test article hardware, a product of Aldebaran Robotics.

Rich, Thomas M.↗

Troposphere-Stratosphere Connections in Recent Northern Winters in NASA GEOS Assimilated Datasets

The northern winter stratosphere displays a wide range of interannual variability, much of which is believed to result from the response to the damping of upward-propagating waves. However, there is considerable (growing) evidence that the stratospheric state can also impact the tropospheric circulation. This issue will be examined using datasets generated in the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. Just as the tropospheric circulation in each of these years was dominated by differing synoptic-scale structures, the stratospheric polar vortex also displayed different evolutions. The two extremes are the winter 1998/1999, when the stratosphere underwent a series of warming events (including two major warmings), and the winter 1999/2000, which was dominated by a persistent, cold polar vortex, often distorted by a dominant blocking pattern in the troposphere. This study will examine several operational and research-level versions of the DAO's systems. The 70-level-TRMM-system with a resolution of 2-by-2.5 degrees and the 48-level, 1-by-l-degree resolution ''Terra'' system were operational in 1998/1999 and 1999/2000, respectively. Research versions of the system used a 48-level, 2-by-2.5-degree configuration, which facilitates studies of the impact of vertical resolution. The study includes checks against independent datasets and error analyses, as well as the main issue of troposphere-stratosphere interactions.

Pawson, Steven↗

CLASS: The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) is an experiment to measure the signature of a gravitational wave background from inflation in the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). CLASS is a multi-frequency array of four telescopes operating from a high-altitude site in the Atacama Desert in Chile. CLASS will survey 70% of the sky in four frequency bands centered at 38, 93, 148, and 217 GHz, which are chosen to straddle the Galactic-foreground minimum while avoiding strong atmospheric emission lines. This broad frequency coverage ensures that CLASS can distinguish Galactic emission from the CMB. The sky fraction of the CLASS survey will allow the full shape of the primordial B-mode power spectrum to be characterized, including the signal from reionization at low-length. Its unique combination of large sky coverage, control of systematic errors, and high sensitivity will allow CLASS to measure or place upper limits on the tensor-to-scalar ratio at a level of r = 0:01 and make a cosmic-variance-limited measurement of the optical depth to the surface of last scattering, tau. (c) (2014) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

propagation↗

BeyondPlanck: I. Global Bayesian analysis of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument data

We describe the BEYONDPLANCK project in terms of our motivation, methodology, and main products, and provide a guide to a set of companion papers that describe each result in more detail. Building directly on experience from ESA’s Planck mission, we implemented a complete end-to-end Bayesian analysis framework for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) observations. The primary product is a full joint posterior distribution P(ω | d), where ω represents the set of all free instrumental (gain, correlated noise, bandpass, etc.), astrophysical (synchrotron, free-free, thermal dust emission, etc.), and cosmological (cosmic microwave background – CMB – map, power spectrum, etc.) parameters. Some notable advantages of this approach compared to a traditional pipeline procedure are seamless end-to-end propagation of uncertainties; accurate modeling of both astrophysical and instrumental effects in the most natural basis for each uncertain quantity; optimized computational costs with little or no need for intermediate human interaction between various analysis steps; and a complete overview of the entire analysis process within one single framework. As a practical demonstration of this framework, we focus in particular on low-ℓ CMB polarization reconstruction with Planck LFI. In this process, we identify several important new effects that have not been accounted for in previous pipelines, including gain over-smoothing and time-variable and non-1/f correlated noise in the 30 and 44 GHz channels. Modeling and mitigating both previously known and newly discovered systematic effects, we find that all results are consistent with the ΛCDM model, and we constrained the reionization optical depth to τ = 0.066 ± 0.013, with a low-resolution CMB-based χ 2 probability to exceed of 32%. This uncertainty is about 30% larger than the official pipelines, arising from taking a more complete instrumental model into account. The marginal CMB solar dipole amplitude is 3362.7 ± 1.4 μK, where the error bar was derived directly from the posterior distribution without the need of any ad hoc instrumental corrections. We are currently not aware of any significant unmodeled systematic effects remaining in the Planck LFI data, and, for the first time, the 44 GHz channel is fully exploited in the current analysis. We argue that this framework can play a central role in the analysis of many current and future high-sensitivity CMB experiments, including LiteBIRD, and it will serve as the computational foundation of the emerging community-wide COSMOGLOBE effort, which aims to combine state-of-the-art radio, microwave, and submillimeter data sets into one global astrophysical model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

RSPECT: A PROSPECT-based model incorporating the real structure of rice leaves

Radiative transfer models (RTMs) describe how light is absorbed, scattered, and transmitted within leaves by simulating mechanistic light propagation processes. The PROSPECT model is based on measurable parameters (the leaf biochemical content) and a non-measurable parameter (the leaf anatomical structure represented by the leaf structure parameter (N)). The effect of N on the optical properties of leaves has been investigated through a number of local and global sensitivity analyses. Other studies have directly evaluated the effect of the leaf anatomical structure on spectral reflectance, particularly in the near infrared region. However, the relationship between N and the anatomical structure is unclear. Here, in this study, we leveraged eLeaf, a ray tracing-based 3D rice leaf simulator, to establish relationships between leaf anatomical features and spectral properties, enabling us to replace N in the PROSPECT-4 model with measurable leaf anatomical parameters and develop the RSPECT model. The leaf thickness at minor vein, leaf thickness at bulliform cells, mesophyll thickness at minor vein, and distance between two minor veins could be used to predict N effectively. The RSPECT model achieved spectral simulation accuracy comparable to PROSPECT-4 and was more suitable for parameter inversion of the physical and chemical properties of rice leaves, with relative root mean square errors of 7.4% for chlorophyll content, 5.6% for equivalent water thickness, and 7.5% for dry matter content. In conclusion, RSPECT improves radiative transfer modeling by integrating measurable anatomical features and provides a framework for extending this approach to other vegetation types.

hyperspectral↗

Bottomonium suppression and elliptic flow using Heavy Quarkonium Quantum Dynamics

We introduce a framework called Heavy Quarkonium Quantum Dynamics (HQQD) which can be used to compute the dynamical suppression of heavy quarkonia propagating in the quark-gluon plasma using real-time in-medium quantum evolution. Using HQQD we compute large sets of real-time solutions to the Schrödinger equation using a realistic in-medium complex-valued potential. We sample 2 million quarkonia wave packet trajectories and evolve them through the QGP using HQQD to obtain their survival probabilities. The computation is performed using three different HQQD model parameter sets in order to estimate our systematic uncertainty. After taking into account final state feed down we compare our results to existing experimental data for the suppression and elliptic flow of bottomonium states and find that HQQD predictions are good agreement with available data for R AA as a function of N part and p T collected at \( \sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}} \) = 5 . 02 TeV. In the case of v 2 for the various states, we find that the path-length dependence of ϒ(1 s ) suppression results in quite small v 2 for ϒ(1 s ). Our prediction for the integrated elliptic flow for ϒ(1 s ) in the 10 – 90% centrality class, which now includes an estimate of the systematic error, is v 2 [ϒ(1 s )] = 0 . 003 ± 0 . 0007 ± \( {}_{0.0013}^{0.0006} \) . We also find that, due to their increased suppression, excited bottomonium states have a larger elliptic flow. Based on this observation we make predictions for v 2 [ϒ(2 s )] and v 2 [ϒ(3 s )] as a function of centrality and transverse momentum.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Uncertainty about the Uncertainty [Slides]

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable result in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates, in comparison to the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on the physics of the experiment, while measurement uncertainty depends on the measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). When data from one–of–a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It gives no information about the range, in which the true values of experiment would spread if the experiment was repeated. A frequently used approximation, that if a physical quantity is measured as a function of time, only measurement of this quantity, produces uncertainty is also in some real experiments fare to strong. Example: In reaction history time measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha dominated under certain conditions over the flux measurement uncertainty propagated to alpha. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Towards an Optimal Estimation Retrieval of Cirrus Cloud Optical and Microphysical Properties Using Hyperspectral Shortwave Instruments and A Fast Radiative Transfer Algorithm

Cirrus cloud retrieval products (here, cloud optical depth, effective particle size, and cloud top height) are important inputs into numerical weather and climate models. Uncertainties in such retrieval products, as a matter of course, propagate downstream, impacting model calculations. Improvements in high-quality global cirrus cloud optical and microphysical data products from satellite observations are needed to understand and reduce retrieval uncertainties. Hyperspectral shortwave instruments produce high-resolution and information-dense spectra, thus offering the opportunity to reduce uncertainties in retrieval products. We are in the process of developing a retrieval that uses the very fast Principal Component Radiative Transfer Model in the solar spectral region (PCRTM-Solar) in the forward model calculations. This retrieval will use measured reflectances from the NASA Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) and the forthcoming Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory Pathfinder (CLARREO-Pathfinder) instruments. In this manuscript we present progress towards a reference retrieval employing a widely used, verified, accurate, yet computationally slower radiative transfer modeling technique. The reference retrieval, while too slow for using the complete hyperspectral measurement, will allow us to study the behavior of retrieval products and help us verify results from our in-development fast retrieval. Both retrievals will use the optimal estimation retrieval framework. In this manuscript we present results from an uncertainty analysis considering three uncertainty sources for a cirrus cloud retrieval in the form of error covariance matrices: reflectance uncertainty due to water vapor, the reflectance uncertainty due to ice crystal scattering assumptions, and the instrument measurement uncertainty. Results show that the uncertainty due to habit selection is the largest, while that due to water vapor is at most 0.6% relative to channel reflectance. As a first step, the retrieval is being designed for single layer ice clouds over open ocean water.

Cirrus cloud↗