SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “error estimation and analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,081 records · Page 60

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1975

Mission Analysis Program for Solar Electric Propulsion (MAPSEP). Volume 2: User's manual for earth orbital MAPSEP

The trajectory simulation mode (SIMSEP) requires the namelist SIMSEP to follow TRAJ. The SIMSEP contains parameters which describe the scope of the simulation, expected dynamic errors, and cumulative statistics from previous SIMSEP runs. Following SIMSEP are a set of GUID namelists, one for each guidance correction maneuver. The GUID describes the strategy, knowledge or estimation uncertainties and cumulative statistics for that particular maneuver. The trajectory display mode (REFSEP) requires only the namelist TRAJ followed by scheduling cards, similar to those used in GODSEP. The fixed field schedule cards define: types of data displayed, span of interest, and frequency of printout. For those users who can vary the amount of blank common storage in their runs, a guideline to estimate the total MAPSEP core requirements is given. Blank common length is related directly to the dimension of the dynamic state (NDIM) used in transition matrix (STM) computation, and, the total augmented (knowledge) state (NAUG). The values of program and blank common must be added to compute the total decimal core for a CDC 6500. Other operating systems must scale these requirements appropriately.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1996

Assessment of Error in Synoptic-Scale Diagnostics Derived from Wind Profiler and Radiosonde Network Data

A topic of current practical interest is the accurate characterization of the synoptic-scale atmospheric state from wind profiler and radiosonde network observations. We have examined several related and commonly applied objective analysis techniques for performing this characterization and considered their associated level of uncertainty both from a theoretical and a practical standpoint. A case study is presented where two wind profiler triangles with nearly identical centroids and no common vertices produced strikingly different results during a 43-h period. We conclude that the uncertainty in objectively analyzed quantities can easily be as large as the expected synoptic-scale signal. In order to quantify the statistical precision of the algorithms, we conducted a realistic observing system simulation experiment using output from a mesoscale model. A simple parameterization for estimating the uncertainty in horizontal gradient quantities in terms of known errors in the objectively analyzed wind components and temperature is developed from these results.

Mace, Gerald G.↗

NASA NTRS1986

An analysis of estimation of pulmonary blood flow by the single-breath method

The single-breath method represents a simple noninvasive technique for the assessment of capillary blood flow across the lung. However, this method has not gained widespread acceptance, because its accuracy is still being questioned. A rigorous procedure is described for estimating pulmonary blood flow (PBF) using data obtained with the aid of the single-breath method. Attention is given to the minimization of data-processing errors in the presence of measurement errors and to questions regarding a correction for possible loss of CO2 in the lung tissue. It is pointed out that the estimations are based on the exact solution of the underlying differential equations which describe the dynamics of gas exchange in the lung. The reported study demonstrates the feasibility of obtaining highly reliable estimates of PBF from expiratory data in the presence of random measurement errors.

Srinivasan, R.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Early calendar life and health prediction of silicon batteries via machine learning with uncertainty quantification

Lithium-ion batteries with silicon anodes promise high energy density but are limited by calendar lifetime. Reducing the long iteration time to obtain experimental results requires predicting calendar lifetime early in a cell's life. In this study, we demonstrate that lightweight machine learning models with feature engineering can provide calendar lifetime estimates from early electrochemical signals. After 1 month of electrochemical aging, the best models achieve 10% error in calendar-life prediction and can separate "bad" from "good" lifetime cells with a mean F1 score of 0.857. As battery systems exhibit inherent variability, four methods for uncertainty quantification are compared, and confidence intervals are demonstrated with an uncertainty of +-3.6 months in lifetime prediction. A feature importance analysis indicates that early patterns in voltage decay are the strongest indicators of calendar lifetime. Finally, this modeling approach has high error when generalizing to new electrode chemistries or testing conditions but with appropriately low confidence.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2017

Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

Thigpen, Eric B.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

Thigpen, Eric B.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Cascade Error Projection: A Learning Algorithm for Hardware Implementation

In this paper, we workout a detailed mathematical analysis for a new learning algorithm termed Cascade Error Projection (CEP) and a general learning frame work. This frame work can be used to obtain the cascade correlation learning algorithm by choosing a particular set of parameters. Furthermore, CEP learning algorithm is operated only on one layer, whereas the other set of weights can be calculated deterministically. In association with the dynamical stepsize change concept to convert the weight update from infinite space into a finite space, the relation between the current stepsize and the previous energy level is also given and the estimation procedure for optimal stepsize is used for validation of our proposed technique. The weight values of zero are used for starting the learning for every layer, and a single hidden unit is applied instead of using a pool of candidate hidden units similar to cascade correlation scheme. Therefore, simplicity in hardware implementation is also obtained. Furthermore, this analysis allows us to select from other methods (such as the conjugate gradient descent or the Newton's second order) one of which will be a good candidate for the learning technique. The choice of learning technique depends on the constraints of the problem (e.g., speed, performance, and hardware implementation); one technique may be more suitable than others. Moreover, for a discrete weight space, the theoretical analysis presents the capability of learning with limited weight quantization. Finally, 5- to 8-bit parity and chaotic time series prediction problems are investigated; the simulation results demonstrate that 4-bit or more weight quantization is sufficient for learning neural network using CEP. In addition, it is demonstrated that this technique is able to compensate for less bit weight resolution by incorporating additional hidden units. However, generation result may suffer somewhat with lower bit weight quantization.

Duong, Tuan A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta‐analysis

Abstract Despite the wide application of meta‐analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta‐analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta‐analyses. We reviewed published meta‐analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies ( n i ) and the number of studies or records ( k ) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta‐analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that n i and k were highly variable, distributions were right‐skewed and were generally small (median n i = 5, median k = 44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval (CI) based on the t distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung–Knapp–Sidik–Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z distribution CIs had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta‐analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random‐effects meta‐analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods was similar for the same combinations of factors ( k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approach had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low ( k < 15). Our literature review suggests that many meta‐analyses that used z distribution or bootstrapping CIs may have overestimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta‐analyses.

Pappalardo, Paula↗

DOE OSTI2025

Revisiting a minimally destructive analytic approach for determining electrochemical kinetic parameters: Measuring aluminum corrosion across a wide pH range based on the Butler-Volmer equation

Here, this study revisits the three-point sampling of the simplified Butler-Volmer equation to address the limitations of strong potentiodynamic polarization, which can introduce irreversible damage and uncertainty in corrosion analysis. The method extracts electrochemical kinetic parameters while minimizing polarization effects, evaluates noise sensitivity relative to overpotential, and accounts for errors from signal noise, OCP drift, ohmic resistance, and mass-transfer constraints. Verified against the Tafel extrapolation method for aluminum corrosion across a wide pH range, this low-polarization approach enables accurate evaluations with specific error estimates, offering a robust alternative to linear polarization resistance methods that assume constant Tafel slopes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo using machine learning models

Here, this work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian inference often substitute computationally expensive high-fidelity models with machine learning models, thereby introducing approximation errors, our approach offers a computationally efficient alternative by augmenting high-fidelity models with low-fidelity ones within a hierarchical framework. The multilevel approach utilizes the low-fidelity machine learning model (MLM) for inexpensive evaluation of proposed samples thereby improving the acceptance of samples by the high-fidelity model. The hierarchy in our multilevel algorithm is derived from geometric multigrid hierarchy. We utilize an MLM to accelerate the coarse level sampling. Training machine learning model for the coarsest level significantly reduces the computational cost associated with generating training data and training the model. We present an MCMC algorithm to accelerate the coarsest level sampling using MLM and account for the approximation error introduced. We provide theoretical proofs of detailed balance and demonstrate that our multilevel approach constitutes a consistent MCMC algorithm. Additionally, we derive the expression for cost reduction due to machine learning model to facilitate cost analysis of the hierarchical sampling algorithm. Our technique is demonstrated on a standard benchmark inference problem in groundwater flow, where we estimate the probability density of a quantity of interest using a four-level MCMC algorithm. Our proposed algorithm accelerates multilevel sampling by a factor of two while achieving similar accuracy compared to sampling using the standard multilevel algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Perturbation-Based Diagnosis of False Data Injection Attack Using Distributed Energy Resources

Modern smart grid relies on various sensor measurements for its operational control. In a successful false data injection attack, the attacker manipulates the measurements from the grid sensors such that undetected errors are introduced into the estimates of the system parameters leading to catastrophic situations. This paper proposes a novel perturbation based false data injection attack detection mechanism that utilizes inverter based distributed energy resources (DERs) to create low magnitude perturbation signal in the distribution system voltage that is inconsequential to the normal grid operation. Two voltage sensitivity analysis based algorithms are designed to identify the optimal set of DERs that can create the voltage perturbation signal of desired magnitude. An analytical method of voltage sensitivity analysis is used to compute the magnitude of voltage perturbation signal at each node in a computationally efficient manner. Then, a detection mechanism is developed that checks for the presence of the perturbation sequence in each sensor measurement. A sensor measurement is deemed authentic if the voltage perturbation signal is present in the data. In case of sensor malfunction or cyber-attack, the perturbation signal will not be present in the measurement data. Performance of the proposed attack detection mechanism is validated via simulation of the IEEE 69 bus test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Nonintrusive Optical Approach to Characterize Heliostats in Utility-Scale Power Tower Plants: Camera Position Sensitivity Analysis

Optics plays a major role in the effectiveness of concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. The nonintrusive optical (NIO) approach developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory uses uncrewed aircraft system (UAS)-based imaging to survey heliostats in a commercial-scale power tower CSP plant and characterize their optical errors. The image processing algorithm uses photogrammetry to calculate the camera position for each image frame, and the accuracy of the estimated optical errors is highly sensitive to the calculated camera position accuracy. In this study, we simulate a series of case studies in python to examine the impact of different parameters of the sensitivity of the camera calculation, including the number of facet corners used as control points for the photogrammetric calculation, precision error in the detected pixel locations of the facet corners in the image, and precision error of the canting and mounting positions of the facets of the heliostat. The case studies consider heliostat geometry based on three commercial designs to serve as representative examples of different possible sizes of heliostats that the NIO method could be applied to. The results show that increasing the number of control points can improve accuracy for heliostats with many facets, pixel precision has a significantly larger impact on camera calculation accuracy than facet canting and mounting errors, and the camera distance and focal length must be chosen to ensure adequate pixel accuracy on the heliostat surface depending on the size of heliostat. In conclusion, based on the results, recommendations for the allowable values of each parameter are provided to achieve the required NIO optical error estimation accuracy depending on the size of heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1973

Investigation of empirical damping laws for the space shuttle

An analysis of dynamic test data from vibration testing of a number of aerospace vehicles was made to develop an empirical structural damping law. A systematic attempt was made to fit dissipated energy/cycle to combinations of all dynamic variables. The best-fit laws for bending, torsion, and longitudinal motion are given, with error bounds. A discussion and estimate are made of error sources. Programs are developed for predicting equivalent linear structural damping coefficients and finding the response of nonlinearly damped structures.

Bernstein, E. L.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Multiple regression technique for Pth degree polynominals with and without linear cross products

A multiple regression technique was developed by which the nonlinear behavior of specified independent variables can be related to a given dependent variable. The polynomial expression can be of Pth degree and can incorporate N independent variables. Two cases are treated such that mathematical models can be studied both with and without linear cross products. The resulting surface fits can be used to summarize trends for a given phenomenon and provide a mathematical relationship for subsequent analysis. To implement this technique, separate computer programs were developed for the case without linear cross products and for the case incorporating such cross products which evaluate the various constants in the model regression equation. In addition, the significance of the estimated regression equation is considered and the standard deviation, the F statistic, the maximum absolute percent error, and the average of the absolute values of the percent of error evaluated. The computer programs and their manner of utilization are described. Sample problems are included to illustrate the use and capability of the technique which show the output formats and typical plots comparing computer results to each set of input data.

Davis, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Parameter estimation for terrain modeling from gradient data

A method is developed for modeling terrain surfaces for use on an unmanned Martian roving vehicle. The modeling procedure employs a two-step process which uses gradient as well as height data in order to improve the accuracy of the model's gradient. Least square approximation is used in order to stochastically determine the parameters which describe the modeled surface. A complete error analysis of the modeling procedure is included which determines the effect of instrumental measurement errors on the model's accuracy. Computer simulation is used as a means of testing the entire modeling process which includes the acquisition of data points, the two-step modeling process and the error analysis. Finally, to illustrate the procedure, a numerical example is included.

Dangelo, K. R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

An HP Adaptive Discontinuous Galerkin Method for Hyperbolic Conservation Laws

This dissertation addresses various issues for model classes of hyperbolic conservation laws. The basic approach developed in this work employs a new family of adaptive, hp-version, finite element methods based on a special discontinuous Galerkin formulation for hyperbolic problems. The discontinuous Galerkin formulation admits high-order local approximations on domains of quite general geometry, while providing a natural framework for finite element approximations and for theoretical developments. The use of hp-versions of the finite element method makes possible exponentially convergent schemes with very high accuracies in certain cases; the use of adaptive hp-schemes allows h-refinement in regions of low regularity and p-enrichment to deliver high accuracy, while keeping problem sizes manageable and dramatically smaller than many conventional approaches. The use of discontinuous Galerkin methods is uncommon in applications, but the methods rest on a reasonable mathematical basis for low-order cases and has local approximation features that can be exploited to produce very efficient schemes, especially in a parallel, multiprocessor environment. The place of this work is to first and primarily focus on a model class of linear hyperbolic conservation laws for which concrete mathematical results, methodologies, error estimates, convergence criteria, and parallel adaptive strategies can be developed, and to then briefly explore some extensions to more general cases. Next, we provide preliminaries to the study and a review of some aspects of the theory of hyperbolic conservation laws. We also provide a review of relevant literature on this subject and on the numerical analysis of these types of problems.

Bey, Kim S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian analysis of classical shadows

Abstract The method of classical shadows proposed by Huang, Kueng, and Preskill heralds remarkable opportunities for quantum estimation with limited measurements. Yet its relationship to established quantum tomographic approaches, particularly those based on likelihood models, remains unclear. In this article, we investigate classical shadows through the lens of Bayesian mean estimation (BME). In direct tests on numerical data, BME is found to attain significantly lower error on average, but classical shadows prove remarkably more accurate in specific situations—such as high-fidelity ground truth states—which are improbable in a fully uniform Hilbert space. We then introduce an observable-oriented pseudo-likelihood that successfully emulates the dimension-independence and state-specific optimality of classical shadows, but within a Bayesian framework that ensures only physical states. Our research reveals how classical shadows effect important departures from conventional thinking in quantum state estimation, as well as the utility of Bayesian methods for uncovering and formalizing statistical assumptions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the evidence for exponential quantum advantage in ground-state quantum chemistry

Due to intense interest in the potential applications of quantum computing, it is critical to understand the basis for potential exponential quantum advantage in quantum chemistry. Here we gather the evidence for this case in the most common task in quantum chemistry, namely, ground-state energy estimation, for generic chemical problems where heuristic quantum state preparation might be assumed to be efficient. The availability of exponential quantum advantage then centers on whether features of the physical problem that enable efficient heuristic quantum state preparation also enable efficient solution by classical heuristics. Through numerical studies of quantum state preparation and empirical complexity analysis (including the error scaling) of classical heuristics, in both ab initio and model Hamiltonian settings, we conclude that evidence for such an exponential advantage across chemical space has yet to be found. While quantum computers may still prove useful for ground-state quantum chemistry through polynomial speedups, it may be prudent to assume exponential speedups are not generically available for this problem.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗