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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Observable proton decay in flipped SU(5)

We explore proton decay in a class of realistic supersymmetric flipped SU(5) models supplemented by a U(1) R symmetry which plays an essential role in implementing hybrid inflation. Two distinct neutrino mass models, based on inverse seesaw and type I seesaw, are identified, with the latter arising from the breaking of U(1) R by nonrenormalizable superpotential terms. Depending on the neutrino mass model an appropriate set of intermediate scale color triplets from the Higgs superfields play a key role in proton decay channels that include p → (e + , μ + ) π 0 , p → (e + , μ + ) K 0 , p → $\bar v$π + , and p → $\bar v$K + . We identify regions of the parameter space that yield proton lifetime estimates which are testable at Hyper-Kamiokande and other next generation experiments. We discuss how gauge coupling unification in the presence of intermediate scale particles is realized, and a Z 4 symmetry is utilized to show how such intermediate scales can arise in flipped SU(5). Finally, we compare our predictions for proton decay with previous work based on SU(5) and flipped SU(5).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Regime-Switching Spatio-Temporal GARCH Method for Short-Term Wind Forecasting

The growth of wind energy poses challenges to the integration of wind energy into the power grid. Within a wind farm, the conditions of local wind exhibit sizeable variations in very short term period and temporal wind speed patterns vary from turbine to turbine. Hence, short-term wind forecasting has been adopted to assist power system operations. In this work, we propose a wind plant-level short term wind speed and power forecasting methodology considering turbine contributions. The proposed model utilizes spatio-temporal dependencies and nonstationarity to accommodate the characteristics of wind farm data by using a novel regime-switching spatiotemporal generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (RS-stGARCH) model. Case studies based on 2 years of data from a wind farm shows that the proposed RS-stGARCH method outperforms benchmark models by up to 21.10% for wind speed forecasting and up to 58.62% for the wind power forecasting.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Multi-fluid and kinetic models of partially ionized magnetic reconnection

Magnetic reconnection in partially ionized plasmas is a ubiquitous and important phenomenon in both laboratory and astrophysical systems. Here, simulations of partially ionized magnetic reconnection with well-matched initial conditions are performed using both multi-fluid and fully-kinetic approaches. Despite similar initial conditions, the time-dependent evolution differs between the two models. In multi-fluid models, the reconnection rate locally obeys either a decoupled Sweet–Parker scaling, where neutrals are unimportant, or a fully coupled Sweet–Parker scaling, where neutrals and ions are strongly coupled, depending on the resistivity. In contrast, kinetic models show a faster reconnection rate that is proportional to the fully-coupled, bulk Alfvén speed, $v^*_A$. In this work, these differences are interpreted as the result of operating in different collisional regimes. Multi-fluid simulations are found to maintain $ν_{ni}L/v^*_A$ ≳1, where $ν_{ni}$ is the neutral–ion collision frequency and L is the time-dependent current sheet half-length. This strongly couples neutrals to the reconnection outflow, while kinetic simulations evolve to allow $ν_{ni}L/v^*_A$ <1, decoupling neutrals from the reconnection outflow. Differences in the way reconnection is triggered may explain these discrepancies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multi-Fluid and Kinetic Models of Partially Ionized Magnetic Reconnection

Magnetic reconnection in partially ionized plasmas is a ubiquitous and important phenomena in both laboratory and astrophysical systems. Here, simulations of partially ionized magnetic reconnection with well-matched initial conditions are performed using both multi-fluid and fully-kinetic approaches. Despite similar initial conditions, the time-dependent evolution differs between the two models. In multi-fluid models, the reconnection rate locally obeys either a decoupled Sweet-Parker scaling, where neutrals are unimportant, or a fully coupled Sweet-Parker scaling, where neutrals and ions are strongly coupled, depending on the resistivity. In contrast, kinetic models show a faster reconnection rate that is proportional to the fully-coupled, bulk Alfv\'en speed, $v_A^\star$. These differences are interpreted as the result of operating in different collisional regimes. Multi-fluid simulations are found to maintain $\nu_{ni}L/v_A^\star \gtrsim 1$, where $\nu_{ni}$ is the neutral-ion collision frequency and $L$ is the time-dependent current sheet half-length. This strongly couples neutrals to the reconnection outflow, while kinetic simulations evolve to allow $\nu_{ni}L/v_A^\star < 1$, decoupling neutrals from the reconnection outflow. Differences in the way reconnection is triggered may explain these discrepancies.

Magnetic reconnection↗

AATTENUATION—The Atmospheric Attenuation Model for CSP Tower Plants: A Look-Up Table for Operational Implementation

Attenuation of solar radiation between the receiver and the heliostat field in concentrated solar power (CSP) tower plants can reduce the overall system performance significantly. The attenuation varies strongly with time and the average attenuation at different sites might also vary strongly from each other. If no site specific attenuation data is available, the optimal plant design cannot be determined and rough estimations of the attenuation effect are required leading to high uncertainties of yield analysis calculations. The attenuation is caused mainly by water vapor content and aerosol particles in the lower atmospheric layer above ground. Although several on-site measurement systems have been developed during recent years, attenuation data sets are usually not available to be included during the plant project development. An Atmospheric Attenuation (AATTENUATION) model to derive the atmospheric transmittance between a heliostat and receiver on the basis of common direct normal irradiance (DNI), temperature, relative humidity, and barometric pressure measurements was developed and validated by the authors earlier. The model allows the accurate estimation of attenuation for sites with low attenuation and gives an estimation of the attenuation for less clear sites. However, the site-dependent coefficients of the AATTENUATION model had to be developed individually for each site of interest, which required time-consuming radiative transfer simulations, considering the exact location and altitude, as well as the pre-dominant aerosol type at the location. This strongly limited the application of the model despite its typically available input data. In this manuscript, a look-up table (LUT) is presented which enables the application of the AATTENUATION model at the site of interest without the necessity to perform the according complex radiative transfer calculations for each site individually. This enables the application of the AATTENUATION model for virtually all resource assessments for tower plants and in an operational mode in real time within plant monitoring systems around the world. The LUT also facilitates the generation of solar attenuation maps on the basis of long-term meteorological data sets which can be considered during resource assessment for CSP tower plant projects. The LUTs are provided together with this manuscript as supplementary files. The LUT for the AATTENUATION model was developed for a solar zenith angle (SZA) grid of 1°, an altitude grid of 100 m, 7 different standard aerosol types and the standard AFGL atmospheres for mid-latitudes and the tropics. The LUT was tested against the original version of the AATTENUATION model at 4 sites in Morocco and Spain, and it was found that the additional uncertainty introduced by the application of the LUT is negligible. With the information of latitude, longitude, altitude above mean sea level, DNI, relative humidity (RH), ambient temperature (Tair), and barometric pressure (bp), the attenuation can be now derived easily for each site of interest.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Two-way coupled particle-turbulence interaction: Effect of numerics and resolution on fluid and particle statistics

Euler-Lagrange point-particle simulation has emerged as a premier methodology for studying dispersed particle-laden flows. This method's popularity stems from its ability to resolve fine-scale fluid structures while also tracking individual particles at reduced cost using an appropriate particle acceleration model. However, the point-particle model has known convergence issues in that refinement of the fluid grid can lead to changes in the predicted statistics. The reasons for non-convergence are twofold: the point-particle two-way coupling force in the Navier-Stokes equations requires a numerical regularization and, without careful implementation, yields a singular force on the fluid with grid refinement. The second factor that yields grid-dependent statistics is that the point-particle force model in general depends on the undisturbed fluid velocity. When the undisturbed fluid velocity is not robustly modeled in a grid-insensitive way, the calculated force for both particles and fluid will be grid-dependent, contaminating their respective statistics. While the first issue regarding regularizing the point-particle source term has received attention in the literature, the consequences of robustly modeling the undisturbed velocity in the context of grid refinement of turbulence has received little attention. Here, we consider decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence laden with particles at different Stokes numbers. For a given Stokes number, we systematically refine the grid and demonstrate that explicitly modeling the undisturbed fluid velocity yields relative grid insensitivity for the energy of the particle and fluid phases, as well as acceleration of the particles. We also demonstrate that an appropriately defined dissipation rate is also grid-insensitive when an undisturbed fluid velocity correction is used. In contrast, when the undisturbed fluid velocity is modeled using the conventional approach of interpolating the local fluid velocity to the particle location, we show this procedure yields divergent statistics with grid refinement. In particular, we show that higher-order interpolation of the fluid velocity in two-way coupled problems is worse than lower-order interpolation, in the absence of a correction procedure to estimate the undisturbed fluid velocity. We also examine velocity derivative statistics of the fluid phase and demonstrate that these statistics are not in general convergent even when the undisturbed fluid velocity is explicitly modeled. Collectively, the observations in this paper are used to present a philosophy on the types of questions which are answerable with point-particle methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Isotope physics of heat and particle transport with tritium in JET-ILW type-I ELMy H-mode plasmas

As part the DTE2 campaign in the JET tokamak, we conducted a parameter scan in T and D-T complementing existing pulses in H and D. For the different main ion masses, type-I ELMy H-modes at fixed plasma current and magnetic field can have the pedestal pressure varying by a factor of 4 and the total pressure changing from <?CDATA $\beta_{\mathrm{N}} = 1.0$?> β N = 1.0 to 3.0. We investigated the pedestal and core isotope mass dependencies using this extensive data set. The pedestal shows a strong mass dependence on the density, which influences the core due to the strong coupling between both plasma regions. To better understand the causes for the observed isotope mass dependence in the pedestal, we analysed the interplay between heat and particle transport and the edge localised mode (ELM) stability. For this purpose, we developed a dynamic ELM cycle model with basic transport assumptions and a realistic neutral penetration. The temporal evolution and resulting ELM frequency introduce an additional experimental constraint that conventional quasi-stationary transport analysis cannot provide. Our model shows that a mass dependence in the ELM stability or in the transport alone cannot explain the observations. One requires a mass dependence in the ELM stability as well as one in the particle sources. The core confinement time increases with pedestal pressure for all isotope masses due to profile stiffness and electromagnetic turbulence stabilisation. Interestingly, T and D-T plasmas show an improved core confinement time compared to H and D plasmas even for matched pedestal pressures. For T, this improvement is largely due to the unique pedestal composition of higher densities and lower temperatures than H and D. With a reduced gyroBohm factor at lower temperatures, more turbulent drive in the form of steeper gradients is required to transport the same amount of heat. This picture is supported by quasilinear flux-driven modelling using TGLF -SAT2 within Astra . With the experimental boundary condition TGLF -SAT2 predicts the core profiles well for gyroBohm heat fluxes <?CDATA ${\gt}15$?> > 15 , however, overestimates the heat and particle transport closer to the turbulent threshold.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Effects of random forest modeling decisions on biogeochemical time series predictions

Abstract Random forests (RF) are an increasingly popular machine learning approach used to model biogeochemical processes in the Earth system. While RF models are robust to many assumptions that complicate deterministic models, there are several important parameterization decisions for appropriate use and optimal model fit. We explored the role that parameter decisions, including training/testing data splitting strategies, variable selection, and hyperparameters play on RF goodness‐of‐fit by constructing models using 1296 unique parameter combinations to predict concentrations of nitrate, a key nutrient for biogeochemical cycling in aquatic ecosystems. Models were built on long‐term, publicly available water quality and meteorology time series collected by the National Estuarine Research Reserve monitoring network for two contrasting ecosystems representing freshwater and brackish estuaries. We found that accounting for temporal dependence when splitting data into training and testing subsets was key for avoiding over‐estimation of model predictive power. In addition, variable selection, the ratio of training to testing data, and to a lesser degree, variables per split and number of trees, were significant parameters for optimizing RF goodness‐of‐fit. We also explored how model parameter decisions influenced interpretation of the relative importance of predictors to the model, and model predictor‐dependent variable relationships, with results suggesting that both data structure and model parameterization influence these factors. Because much of the current RF literature is written for the computational and statistical science communities, the primary goal of this study is to provide guidelines for aquatic scientists new to machine learning to apply RF techniques appropriately to aquatic biogeochemical datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement of neutron production in atmospheric neutrino interactions at Super-Kamiokande

We present measurements of total neutron production from atmospheric neutrino interactions in water, analyzed as a function of electron-equivalent visible energy over a range of 30 MeV to 10 GeV. These results are based on 4,270 days of data collected by Super-Kamiokande, including 564 days with 0.011 wt% gadolinium added to enhance neutron detection. Neutron signal selection is based on a neural network trained on simulation, with its performance validated using an Am/Be neutron point source. The measurements are compared to predictions from neutrino event generators combined with various hadron-nucleus interaction models, which include an intranuclear cascade model and a nuclear deexcitation model. We observe significant variations in the predictions depending on the choice of hadron-nucleus interaction model. We discuss key factors that contribute to describing our data, such as in-medium effects in the intranuclear cascade and the accuracy of statistical evaporation modeling.

Cherenkov detectors↗

Deep neural network for the dielectric response of insulators

In this work, we introduce a deep neural network to model in a symmetry preserving way the environmental dependence of the centers of the electronic charge. The model learns from ab initio density functional theory, wherein the electronic centers are uniquely assigned by the maximally localized Wannier functions. When combined with the deep potential model of the atomic potential energy surface, the scheme predicts the dielectric response of insulators for trajectories inaccessible to direct ab initio simulation. The scheme is nonperturbative and can capture the response of a mutating chemical environment. We demonstrate the approach by calculating the infrared spectra of liquid water at standard conditions, and of ice under extreme pressure, when it transforms from a molecular to an ionic crystal.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Twistronics of Janus transition metal dichalcogenide bilayers

Twisted multilayers of two-dimensional (2D) materials are an increasingly important platform for investigating quantum phases of matter, and in particular, strongly correlated electrons. The moiré pattern introduced by the relative twist between layers creates effective potentials of long wavelength, leading to electron localization. However, in contrast to the abundance of 2D materials, few twisted heterostructures have been studied until now. Here, in this study, we develop a first-principles continuum theory to study the electronic bands introduced by moire patterns of twisted Janus transition metal dichalcogenide (TMD) homo- and heterobilayers. The model includes lattice relaxation, stacking-dependent effective mass, and Rashba spin-orbit coupling. We then perform a high-throughput generation and characterization of DFT-extracted continuum models for more than a hundred possible combinations of materials and stackings. Our model predicts that the moiré physics and emergent symmetries depend on chemical composition, vertical layer orientation, and twist angle, so that the miniband wave functions can form triangular, honeycomb, and kagome networks. Rashba spin-orbit effects, peculiar of these systems, can dominate the moiré bandwidth at small angles. Our work enables detailed investigation of Janus twisted heterostructures, allowing the discovery and control of novel electronic phenomena.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Two-Layer Dynamic Recycling Model (2L-DRM): Learning from Moisture Tracking Models of Different Complexity

Atmospheric moisture tracking models are used to identify and quantify sources and sinks of water in the atmospheric branch of the hydrologic cycle. These models are primarily used to investigate the origin of moisture resulting in precipitation for particular regions around the globe. Moisture tracking models vary widely in their level of complexity, depending on the number of physical processes represented. Complex models are comprehensive in their physical representation, but computationally much more expensive than simple models, which only focus on specific physical processes and use simplifying assumptions. We present the mathematical derivation of the new two-layer dynamical recycling model (2L-DRM), a simple analytical moisture tracking model that relaxes the vertically-integrated formulation of the original one-layer DRM (Dominguez et al., 2006). By comparing the simple DRM to a very complex moisture tracking model that uses water vapor tracers embedded within the Weather Research and Forecast regional climate model (WRF-WVT) for the North American Monsoon region, we pinpoint the absence of vertical wind shear as the main deficiency in the simple DRM. When comparing both simple models (DRM and 2L-DRM) to the WRF-WVT (which we treat as ‘truth’), the 2L-DRM better captures the spatial extent, the net amount and the temporal variability of precipitation that originates from oceanic and local terrestrial sources. The 2L-DRM is well suited to study the large-scale climatological sources of moisture, and for these applications, performs on-par with the much more complex and computationally demanding WRF-WVT model.

Dominguez, Francina↗

Singlet, triplet, and pair density wave superconductivity in the doped triangular-lattice moiré system

Recent experimental progress has established the twisted bilayer transition metal dichalcogenide (TMD) as a highly tunable platform for studying many-body physics. Particularly, the homobilayer TMDs under displacement field are believed to be described by a generalized triangular-lattice Hubbard model with a spin-dependent hopping phase θ. To explore the effects of θ on the system, we perform density matrix renormalization group calculations for the relevant triangular lattice t-J model. By changing θ at small hole doping, we obtain a region of quasi-long-range superconducting order coexisting with charge and spin density wave within 0 < θ < π/3. The superconductivity is composed of a dominant spin singlet d-wave and a subdominant triplet p-wave pairing. Intriguingly, the S z = ±1 triplet pairing components feature pair-density waves. In addition, we find a region of triplet superconductivity coexisting with charge-density wave and ferromagnetism within π/3 < θ < 2π/3, which is related to the former phase at smaller θ by a combined operation of spin-flip and gauge transformation. Furthermore, our findings provide insights and directions for experimental search for exotic superconductivity in twisted TMD systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

An Analysis of the Spatial Variations in the Relationship Between Built Environment and Severe Crashes

Traffic crashes significantly contribute to global fatalities, particularly in urban areas, highlighting the need to evaluate the relationship between urban environments and traffic safety. This study extends former spatial modeling frameworks by drawing paths between global models, including spatial lag (SLM), and spatial error (SEM), and local models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR), multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), and multi-scale geographically weighted regression with spatially lagged dependent variable (MGWRL). Utilizing the proposed framework, this study analyzes severe traffic crashes in relation to urban built environments using various spatial regression models within Leon County, Florida. According to the results, SLM outperforms OLS, SEM, and GWR models. Local models with lagged dependent variables outperform both the global and generic versions of the local models in all performance measures, whereas MGWR and MGWRL outperform GWR and GWRL. Local models performed better than global models, showing spatial non-stationarity; so, the relationship between the dependent and independent variables varies over space. The better performance of models with lagged dependent variables signifies that the spatial distribution of severe crashes is correlated. Finally, the better performance of multi-scale local models than classical local models indicates varying influences of independent variables with different bandwidths. According to the MGWRL model, census block groups close to the urban area with higher population, higher education level, and lower car ownership rates have lower crash rates. On the contrary, motor vehicle percentage for commuting is found to have a negative association with severe crash rate, which suggests the locality of the mentioned associations.

Alisan, Onur (ORCID:0000000193113984)↗

A model for radiative heating of a high-Z pusher

Several approaches to Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF), including double-shell, pushered-single-shell, and the Revolver designs, have fuel surrounded by pushers made from high-Z materials. An advantage of these designs is that radiation emitted by the hot fuel will be absorbed and re-radiated into the fuel to reduce cooling. This process is referred to as radiation-trapping, and it lowers the fuel temperature required for ignition. To elucidate the physics of radiation trapping, a simplified model comprising a set of coupled differential equations has been developed to model the arbitrary time-dependent wall temperature from the Hammer and Rosen solution [J. H. Hammer and M. D. Rosen, Phys. Plasmas 10, 1829 (2003)] to a Marshak wave. The derivation of the model and a set of analytical power-law solutions will be presented. A discussion on numerical implementation of the differential equations into a model for burn in ICF capsules is also included.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The star-formation history in the last 10 billion years from CIB cross-correlations

ABSTRACT The cosmic infrared background (CIB) traces the emission of star-forming galaxies throughout all cosmic epochs. Breaking down the contribution from galaxies at different redshifts to the observed CIB maps would allow us to probe the history of star formation. In this paper, we cross-correlate maps of the CIB with galaxy samples covering the range z ≲ 2 to measure the bias-weighted star-formation rate (SFR) density 〈bρSFR〉 as a function of time in a model independent way. This quantity is complementary to direct measurements of the SFR density ρSFR, giving a higher weight to more massive haloes, and thus provides additional information to constrain the physical properties of star formation. Using cross-correlations of the CIB with galaxies from the DESI Legacy Survey and the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey, we obtain high signal-to-noise ratio measurements of 〈bρSFR〉, which we then use to place constraints on halo-based models of the star-formation history. We fit halo-based SFR models to our data and compare the recovered ρSFR with direct measurements of this quantity. We find a qualitatively good agreement between both independent data sets, although the details depend on the specific halo model assumed. This constitutes a useful robustness test for the physical interpretation of the CIB, and reinforces the role of CIB maps as valuable astrophysical probes of the large-scale structure. We report our measurements of 〈bρSFR〉 as well as a thorough account of their statistical uncertainties, which can be used to constrain star-formation models in combination with other data.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

A Multiphysics Multiscale Simulation Platform for Damage, Environmental Degradation, and Life Prediction of CMCs in Extreme Environments

This project successfully developed a multiphysics, multiscale computational framework to enhance the design and development of CMCs, with a focus on modeling highly nonlinear, time-dependent damage mechanisms and material degradation under extreme conditions, such as those experienced in turbine service environments. The project made significant advances in improving our understanding of progressive damage, oxidative degradation, and time-dependent inelastic deformation in CMCs, with particular attention to the role of uncertainties in predictions. Key outcomes include the integration of advanced material characterization, uncertainty quantification, and multiphysics constitutive models to predict the behavior of CMCs over their service life. A novel multiscale methodology was employed, which integrated microscale constituent behaviors with structural-scale responses, enabling the manufacturing defects in the microstructure that are prone to damage nucleation. Through the development of DL algorithms, the project advanced the prediction of damage initiation and crack propagation, taking into account the defect morphology and statistical variations across multiple scales. The framework was rigorously validated using thermomechanical experiments, which tested CMCs under various mechanical loadings at elevated temperatures, further enhancing the model's predictive capability. Overall, the research outcomes have provided a more accurate, reliable method for predicting CMC component life, significantly advancing material design, and improving component reliability in extreme environments. This work has strong implications for the optimization of turbine components and other high-performance applications where CMCs are used.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. V. Testing Astrophysical Models of the Galactic Center Black Hole

In this paper we provide a first physical interpretation for the Event Horizon Telescope's (EHT) 2017 observations of Sgr A*. Our main approach is to compare resolved EHT data at 230 GHz and unresolved non-EHT observations from radio to X-ray wavelengths to predictions from a library of models based on time-dependent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics simulations, including aligned, tilted, and stellar-wind-fed simulations; radiative transfer is performed assuming both thermal and nonthermal electron distribution functions. We test the models against 11 constraints drawn from EHT 230 GHz data and observations at 86 GHz, 2.2μm, and in the X-ray. All models fail at least one constraint. Light-curve variability provides a particularly severe constraint, failing nearly all strongly magnetized (magnetically arrested disk (MAD)) models and a large fraction of weakly magnetized models. A number of models fail only the variability constraints. We identify a promising cluster of these models, which are MAD and have inclination i ≤ 30°. They have accretion rate (5.2–9.5) × 10$^{−9}$ M $_{⊙}$ yr$^{−1}$, bolometric luminosity (6.8–9.2) × 10$^{35}$ erg s$^{−1}$, and outflow power (1.3–4.8) × 10$^{38}$ erg s$^{−1}$. We also find that all models with i ≥ 70° fail at least two constraints, as do all models with equal ion and electron temperature; exploratory, nonthermal model sets tend to have higher 2.2μm flux density; and the population of cold electrons is limited by X-ray constraints due to the risk of bremsstrahlung overproduction. Finally, we discuss physical and numerical limitations of the models, highlighting the possible importance of kinetic effects and duration of the simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗