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DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear-Renewable-Storage Systems: Enhancing Planning and Operations of Integrated Energy Systems

Nuclear-renewable-storage integrated energy systems (IES) are multi-carrier energy systems that include not only electricity but also other forms of demands. Because individual IES components must observe their thermo-physical limits, including ramp rates, start-up, and shut-down time, we formulate operations of the IES as an optimization model by minimizing the total operations costs subject to physical limits of all constituent components. In addition, we develop a data-driven approach to improve the computational performance of the economic dispatch model by using reinforcement learning, where an agent is rewarded by meeting demands and penalized otherwise when shifting to the next state.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

An Analysis of Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

Wind power is a growing source of energy generation that relies on complex global atmospheric and earth system processes. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run wind energy models with possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States. Changes in mean annual energy production from 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will change and to what extent system costs can be reduced. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, uncertainty in future wind resources can influence the cost of wind energy nearly as much as uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

This dataset contains results estimating projections of change of annual capacity factors and levelized cost of energy for several turbine technologies in the 2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Projections of change are based on downscaled earth system model (ESM) data from Sup3rCC. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run land-based wind energy models with a range of possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States to estimate critical system performance metrics such as annual energy production (AEP) and levelized cost of energy. Where multiple earth system models agree, changes in mean AEP from the time period 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Several additional states in the Midwest that currently have considerable wind generation capacity show the possibility of substantial decreases in AEP by mid-century. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset even the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will actually change into the future and to what extent wind energy systems can drive down future costs. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, the uncertainty in future wind resource can be almost as important for future changes in the cost of wind energy as the uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Salton Sea Geothermal Development: Nontechnical Barriers to Entry – Analysis and Perspectives

Geothermal energy offers an opportunity to generate baseload, renewable energy that can help support the transition to an energy economy with reduced impacts on climate change and replace older, more expensive, nonrenewable, and more resource-impacting energy-generation facilities. The United States has the largest known geothermal resource in the world, with over 31 GW of conventional geothermal potential. However, due to market conditions, an inability to properly quantify both electrical grid benefits and resource stability, and the difficulty of exploring and developing the geothermal resource, few new geothermal projects have come online over the past three decades. The Salton Sea, in Imperial County, California, provides a prime location and opportunity to develop new geothermal resources. The Salton Sea contains a robust, well-mapped, geothermal resource, with opportunities for concurrent development of lithium and other mineral resources. This report describes the history of geothermal development at the Salton Sea and compares geothermal to other renewable energy sources in the area. The report then uses a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model to analyze the relative benefits and costs of various challenges and opportunities and provides recommendations for streamlining geothermal development at the Salton Sea and elsewhere. The challenges and opportunities analyzed in the TEA model were informed by stakeholder interviews and literature reviews. Based upon the identified challenges and opportunities and the results of the TEA model, primary findings are that certain nontechnical barriers such as permitting costs play only a minor role in determining the viability of development of the geothermal resource at the Salton Sea. Other barriers such as permitting timelines, government/agency coordination, and the potential co-location of lithium extraction with a geothermal plant may result in much larger impacts on project viability.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-scarce surrogate modeling of shock-induced pore collapse process

Understanding the mechanisms of shock-induced pore collapse is of great interest in various disciplines in sciences and engineering, including materials science, biological sciences, and geophysics. However, numerical modeling of the complex pore collapse processes can be costly. To this end, a strong need exists to develop surrogate models for generating economic predictions of pore collapse processes. Here, in this work, we study the use of a data-driven reduced-order model, namely dynamic mode decomposition, and a deep generative model, namely conditional generative adversarial networks, to resemble the numerical simulations of the pore collapse process at representative training shock pressures. Since the simulations are expensive, the training data are scarce, which makes training an accurate surrogate model challenging. To overcome the difficulties posed by the complex physics phenomena, we make several crucial treatments to the plain original form of the methods to increase the capability of approximating and predicting the dynamics. In particular, physics information is used as indicators or conditional inputs to guide the prediction. In realizing these methods, the training of each dynamic mode composition model takes only around 30 s on CPU. In contrast, training a generative adversarial network model takes 8 h on GPU. Moreover, using dynamic mode decomposition, the final-time relative error is around 0.3% in the reproductive cases. We also demonstrate the predictive power of the methods at unseen testing shock pressures, where the error ranges from 1.3 to 5% in the interpolatory cases and 8 to 9% in extrapolatory cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

An open source knowledge graph ecosystem for the life sciences

Translational research requires data at multiple scales of biological organization. Advancements in sequencing and multi-omics technologies have increased the availability of these data, but researchers face significant integration challenges. Knowledge graphs (KGs) are used to model complex phenomena, and methods exist to construct them automatically. However, tackling complex biomedical integration problems requires flexibility in the way knowledge is modeled. Moreover, existing KG construction methods provide robust tooling at the cost of fixed or limited choices among knowledge representation models. PheKnowLator (Phenotype Knowledge Translator) is a semantic ecosystem for automating the FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) construction of ontologically grounded KGs with fully customizable knowledge representation. The ecosystem includes KG construction resources (e.g., data preparation APIs), analysis tools (e.g., SPARQL endpoint resources and abstraction algorithms), and benchmarks (e.g., prebuilt KGs). We evaluated the ecosystem by systematically comparing it to existing open-source KG construction methods and by analyzing its computational performance when used to construct 12 different large-scale KGs. With flexible knowledge representation, PheKnowLator enables fully customizable KGs without compromising performance or usability.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling batch melting: Roles of heat transfer and reaction kinetics

Development of mathematical models of heat and mass transfer in glass-melting furnaces began in the 1970s and progressed rapidly with advances in sophisticated experimental/numerical techniques and increasing computational power. Today, practically all newly built or rebuilt furnaces are optimized with these models to meet stringent quality requirements, reduce the unit costs of manufacturing, or control emissions. One remaining hurdle is to model the batch-to-glass conversion accurately enough to reliably assess the glass production rate. This article summarizes two key aspects of the batch-conversion modeling—the heat transfer and the kinetics of conversion—and reviews the current state-of-the-art approaches to simulating them. We critically examine the advantages of the commonly used heat transfer approach, but also explain that its predictive capabilities are significantly restricted by the dependence of batch thermal properties on the time-temperature history. We argue that kinetic approaches to the batch-conversion modeling would offer a significant improvement when coupled with the heat transfer approach. Finally, we summarize key areas requiring further research on the way toward a realistic model of the batch blanket.

Pokorny, Richard↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Economic Accessibility of CO2 Sequestration through Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) in the US

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is one strategy to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. To assess the potential scale and cost of CO2 sequestration from BECCS in the US, this analysis models carbon sequestration net of supply chain emissions and costs of biomass production, delivery, power generation, and CO2 capture and sequestration in saline formations. The analysis includes two biomass supply scenarios (near-term and long-term), two biomass logistics scenarios (conventional and pelletized), and two generation technologies (pulverized combustion and integrated gasification combined cycle). Results show marginal cost per tonne CO2 (accounting for costs of electricity and CO2 emissions of reference power generation scenarios) as a function of CO2 sequestered (simulating capture of up to 90% of total CO2 sequestration potential) and associated spatial distribution of resources and generation locations for the array of scenario options. Under a near-term scenario using up to 206 million tonnes per year of biomass, up to 181 million tonnes CO2 can be sequestered annually at scenario-average costs ranging from $62 to $137 per tonne CO2; under a long-term scenario using up to 740 million tonnes per year of biomass, up to 737 million tonnes CO2 can be sequestered annually at scenario-average costs ranging from $42 to $92 per tonne CO2. These estimates of CO2 sequestration potential may be reduced if future competing demand reduces resource availability or may be increased if displaced emissions from conventional power sources are included. Results suggest there are large-scale opportunities to implement BECCS at moderate cost in the US, particularly in the Midwest, Plains States, and Texas.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Network Reconfiguration and Scheduling With Hardware-in-the-Loop Validation for Improved Microgrid Resilience

With the increased occurrence of various major extreme weather events, power outages and prompt power system restorations have recently drawn more attention to the resilience and recovery of power systems. From the perspective of a more resilient power delivery at the distribution grid, system restoration using network topology reconfiguration together with optimal scheduling of distributed energy resources are adopted in this paper. The proposed optimization model aims at minimizing the total load shedding cost and other operational costs, in which linearized topological constraints borrowed from graph theory and linearized DistFlow models are respectively used to maintain the radial network topology and power flow balance after system contingencies. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed strategy, a real-world case study of a networked three-microgrid system in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico, is used with the consideration of different independent/interconnected microgrid scenarios, contingencies, and fairness settings. Furthermore, hardware-in-the-loop testing is conducted for the same three-microgrid network, where the closely matched results with the simulated ones have validated the effectiveness of the proposed restoration strategy, which is now ready to move one step forward towards field deployment. Finally, to test the proposed restoration strategy in a larger networked system, the modified IEEE-33 bus test distribution system is considered, and the results show a more resilient power delivery for critical loads under three and four line outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Planning for a Resilient Home Electricity Supply System

Resilience of power systems is already a key issue that is getting frequent attention all over the world. It is useful to analyze resilience issues not only for bulk supply, but at all levels including at a customer level. This is because distributed energy resources can play a prominent role in enhancing resilience. Although the literature on planning models, tools and data for bulk supply and distribution systems have expanded in recent years, customer-centric planning, e.g., for an individual household, is yet to receive adequate attention. Although solar PV and battery storage at a household level have been analyzed, how these resources can be optimally combined, together with grid supply, from a resilience perspective is the focus of this study. The study demonstrates how a conceptual framework can be developed to show the trade-off between system costs and resilience including its dimensions such as duration, depth and frequency of service outages. A planning model is developed that incorporates multiple facets of resilience and individual customer preferences. The model considers power system resilience explicitly as a constraint. The model is implemented for a household level case study in Miami, Florida. The results show there are complex trade-offs among different dimensions of resilience. The study demonstrates how combined resilience metrics can be formulated and evaluated using the proposed least-cost planning model at a household level to optimize grid supply together with solar, battery storage and diesel generators. The model allows a planner to directly embed a resilience standard to drive the optimal supply mix. These concepts and the modeling construct can also be applied at other levels of planning, including community level and bulk supply system planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Computational fluid dynamics investigations of flow, heat transfer, and oxidation in heat recovery steam generator

Modern heat recovery steam generators (HRSGs) operate at elevated temperatures, leading to the formation of oxides inside the tubes of heat exchangers (HXs). This oxide growth reduces the heat recovery efficiency. Moreover, after reaching a certain critical thickness, some oxide scales detach from the tube surface (exfoliation), causing erosion damage to the components downstream. Predicting the metal temperature distribution and associated oxide thickness in the HXs of an HRSG can aid in mitigating these problems. Here, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed within the commercial code STAR-CCM+ for the prediction of fluid flow, conjugate heat transfer, and associated oxidation in HRSGs. Moreover, a new Porous Media Model (PMM) method was developed to model the fin effect on the heat transfer in HX, which can substantially reduce the prohibitive computational costs of fin meshes. The developed CFD model was used to conduct a high-fidelity simulation of a real-scale HRSG to investigate flow, heat transfer, and oxide growth. The calculated oxide thickness on different tubes can be used to identify HX regions that require oxide-resistant coatings to prevent exfoliation and ensuing damages. Furthermore, this CFD framework can serve as a reference for future studies that intend to model and investigate high-temperature oxidation in HXs used for any applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Comprehensive Calibration Framework for the Northwest River Forecast Center

We present a comprehensive framework developed by the Northwest River Forecast Center for calibrating hydrologically diverse basins. The framework includes models for snow, soil moisture, routing, channel loss, and consumptive use. Data inputs include a wide range of open-access datasets for meteorology, land use, topography, and land cover. The framework uses conceptual hydrologic models to handle basins with various hydrologic regimes including rain-driven and snowmelt-dominated basins. We also develop a flexible automatic calibration system that can handle numerous unobservable model parameters in a computationally efficient manner. A single-basin automatic calibration run can typically be completed on a modern laptop in under 10 min. We found that model performance metrics for this new approach match the quality of the NWRFC's previous labor-intensive manual calibrations. The model performance also rivals that of a state-of-the-art deep learning model at a fraction of the computational cost. This framework presents a new standard for the quality of calibrations possible with lumped conceptual hydrologic models, combining careful data curation, an objective calibration framework, and expert local knowledge. In addition, we have made software packages available for the entire suite of National Weather Service River Forecast System models, including SAC-SMA, SNOW-17, and Lag-K. These modern interfaces are intended to increase accessibility and facilitate future research.

Forecasting↗

DOE OSTI2026

Numerical Modeling & Size Optimization of Thermal Energy Storage for Iron & Steel Production

Iron and steel production are responsible for 90 million MtCO2 per year in the United States. Hydrogen direct reduction of iron (H2DRI) is a promising pathway for a more sustainable iron production than commercially deployed technologies which rely on natural gas. The H2DRI process requires hydrogen at a temperature of up to 950 degrees C fed into a reduction furnace to produce pellets or briquettes that are used in the downstream iron and steelmaking process. In this work, we propose to use an electrical thermal energy storage (ETES) system, that can use renewable electricity to store high-temperature heat and dispatch it upon demand. Such a system can buffer the H2DRI plant from the variability of electricity prices by charging during curtailment and running the plant from storage during times of peak electricity price. We have developed heat transfer models for two different ETES systems that can be used to heat up hydrogen to the required temperatures: a particle-based ETES and a firebrick ETES. These models are used to evaluate the performance of such a system and support the sizing and preliminary cost estimation. The preliminary results using both models show that designing ETES systems for an industrial-scale H2DRI furnace is feasible. The firebrick ETES system has limited operational duration, which might limit the price buffering effect unless significantly oversized. The particle ETES system heat exchanger has industry-feasible dimensions, but its storage capacity would be decided upon the number of particle storage silos.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation Framework for Imperfect Data and Models [Abstract]

Nuclear data evaluation methods conventionally make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate for minimization of a cost function (even for non-linear models); and that both the model (of, e.g., neutron cross section) and experimental data (including their covariance data) are perfect. These assumptions are inherent to the well-known generalized linear least squares (GLLS) minimization method commonly used for evaluations of resolved resonance region (RRR) neutron cross sections. However, these assumptions are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, non-linear models (e.g. R -matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g. discrepant data sets, discrepancies between the previous evaluation and newly measured data, or imperfect covariance data). We remove the said assumptions in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, and implement it using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Parameters of a new kind are introduced to parameterize inherent imperfections, e.g. , any discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data. These new parameters enable evaluators to quantify their expert judgement about any discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. We demonstrate the framework with an ongoing evaluation of 233 U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII library and transmission data measured by Guber, et al. , and compare the posterior parameters to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cross-sectoral synergies for household energy savings: the role of electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics, and remote work

Over the past two decades, new technologies and behavioral shifts – such as electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics, and increased work-from-home practices – have reshaped residential electricity consumption and cost. However, their combined or synergistic impact on a household’s electricity cost remains unexplored. Leveraging data from the 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, this study uses a structural equation model to unravel the extent to which the bundled adoption of EV-PV and stay-at-home decisions impact the total electricity cost of households. Results indicate that adopting both EVs and PV reduces electricity costs by 31% despite a 16% rise in consumption. When combined with stay-at-home practices, households still experience a 13% cost reduction, even with a 25% increase in electricity consumption. In conclusion, these findings suggest that financial savings are not merely a byproduct of adopting new technologies or behavioral changes but could serve as a key consideration for household contemplating engagement with multiple modern energy solutions simultaneously.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Calibration of cloud and aerosol related parameters for solar irradiance forecasts in WRF-solar

Model parameters are a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction. Recently, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar) has been upgraded by enhancing the treatment of sub-grid scale cloud and aerosols with augmentations of a sub-grid scale cloud scheme (CLD3) and an upgraded aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer scheme (TE14). However, the value of model parameters associated with these parameterizations are assigned based on limited measurements or theoretical calculations. Calibrating the most sensitive parameters has the potential to improve solar irradiance predictions. Here, we adopted a multiobjective surrogate-based optimization (SBO) framework to calibrate nine parameters used in CLD3 and TE14 that lead to the largest sensitivity in simulated irradiance. The normalized mean-absolute-error (NMAE) of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are minimized by calibrating WRF-Solar over two regions including the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Central California, in order to focus on parameter calibration under cloudy conditions with different aerosol loading. The results show that generalized linear model (GLM)-based surrogate models approximate physical models well, particularly when the third order and three-way interaction terms are considered. The SBO framework efficiently searches the parameter space for optimal solutions with less computational costs than directly calibrating the physical model. We first calibrate CLD3 parameters over the less-polluted SGP region. Optimized CLD3 parameters alone result in NMAE reduction by 14% for the site-mean and up to 33% for individual cases over the SGP region. With further calibration of TE14 parameters over the Central California during active fire periods, the optimized parameters lead to over 20% reductions of NMAE. Our investigation reveals, however, that optimizing TE14 has a limited impact on irradiance simulations under less-polluted conditions in the SGP.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Beyond Price-Taker: Multiscale Optimization of Wind and Battery Integrated Energy Systems

Integrating renewable energy into the electric grid is challenging due to the intermittency and variability of wind and other non-dispatchable resources. Integrated energy systems (IESs) combine multiple energy technologies (e.g., fossil, nuclear, renewables, storage) to reduce costs and improve flexibility and reliability. However, standard techno-economic analysis (TEA) methods often overestimate the benefits of IESs because they fail to account for energy market adjustments. This paper systematically studies the limitations of the prevailing price-taker assumption for TEA and optimization of hybrid energy systems. As an illustrative case study, we retrofit an existing wind farm in the RTS-GMLC test system (which loosely mimics the Southwest U.S.) with battery energy storage to form an IES. We show that the standard price-taker model overestimates the electricity revenue and the net present value (NPV) of the IES up to 178% and 30.4%, respectively, compared to our more rigorous multiscale optimization. These differences arise because introducing storage creates a more flexible resource that impacts the larger wholesale electricity market. Moreover, this work highlights the impact of the IES has on the market via various strategic bidding, and underscores the importance of moving beyond price-taker for optimal storage sizing and TEA of IESs. We conclude by discussing opportunities to generalize the proposed framework to other IESs, and highlight emerging research questions regarding the complex interactions between IESs and markets.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid data-driven cement-stabilized soil design: An integration of machine learning, multi-objective optimization, and life cycle assessment

Soil stabilization is crucial in geotechnical engineering, yet conventional methods are often time-consuming, resource-intensive, and environmentally unsustainable. Despite growing interest in Machine Learning (ML) and optimization tools for mix design, few studies integrate these methods with decision-making techniques and environmental assessment to support practical implementation. This study proposes a hybrid data-driven framework for predicting strength, optimizing mix compositions, and evaluating environmental impacts via life cycle assessment of cement-stabilized soft soils. Six ML models were evaluated, and the top-performing eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) model was further improved using the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO). The optimized XGB-GWO model, integrated with a polynomial cost function, served as the objective function in a multi-objective optimization problem solved via the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), with final mix selection guided by the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method. Validation through a case study produced mix designs offering superior strength-cost trade-offs, with the optimal mix achieving 2243.2 kPa unconfined compressive strength and a 16.07 % reduction in carbon emissions compared to the highest-cost design. In conclusion, this study offers a sustainable, scalable approach to soil stabilization and supports informed decision-making in construction.

Life cycle assessment↗