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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Fast Query-Optimized Kernel-Machine Classification

A recently developed algorithm performs kernel-machine classification via incremental approximate nearest support vectors. The algorithm implements support-vector machines (SVMs) at speeds 10 to 100 times those attainable by use of conventional SVM algorithms. The algorithm offers potential benefits for classification of images, recognition of speech, recognition of handwriting, and diverse other applications in which there are requirements to discern patterns in large sets of data. SVMs constitute a subset of kernel machines (KMs), which have become popular as models for machine learning and, more specifically, for automated classification of input data on the basis of labeled training data. While similar in many ways to k-nearest-neighbors (k-NN) models and artificial neural networks (ANNs), SVMs tend to be more accurate. Using representations that scale only linearly in the numbers of training examples, while exploring nonlinear (kernelized) feature spaces that are exponentially larger than the original input dimensionality, KMs elegantly and practically overcome the classic curse of dimensionality. However, the price that one must pay for the power of KMs is that query-time complexity scales linearly with the number of training examples, making KMs often orders of magnitude more computationally expensive than are ANNs, decision trees, and other popular machine learning alternatives. The present algorithm treats an SVM classifier as a special form of a k-NN. The algorithm is based partly on an empirical observation that one can often achieve the same classification as that of an exact KM by using only small fraction of the nearest support vectors (SVs) of a query. The exact KM output is a weighted sum over the kernel values between the query and the SVs. In this algorithm, the KM output is approximated with a k-NN classifier, the output of which is a weighted sum only over the kernel values involving k selected SVs. Before query time, there are gathered statistics about how misleading the output of the k-NN model can be, relative to the outputs of the exact KM for a representative set of examples, for each possible k from 1 to the total number of SVs. From these statistics, there are derived upper and lower thresholds for each step k. These thresholds identify output levels for which the particular variant of the k-NN model already leans so strongly positively or negatively that a reversal in sign is unlikely, given the weaker SV neighbors still remaining. At query time, the partial output of each query is incrementally updated, stopping as soon as it exceeds the predetermined statistical thresholds of the current step. For an easy query, stopping can occur as early as step k = 1. For more difficult queries, stopping might not occur until nearly all SVs are touched. A key empirical observation is that this approach can tolerate very approximate nearest-neighbor orderings. In experiments, SVs and queries were projected to a subspace comprising the top few principal- component dimensions and neighbor orderings were computed in that subspace. This approach ensured that the overhead of the nearest-neighbor computations was insignificant, relative to that of the exact KM computation.

Mazzoni, Dominic↗

Characterizing the Vertical Processes of Ozone in Colorado's Front Range Using the GSFC Ozone Dial

Although characterizing the interactions of ozone throughout the entire troposphere are important for health and climate processes, there is a lack of routine measurements of vertical profiles within the United States. In order to monitor this lower ozone more effectively, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center TROPospheric OZone DIfferential Absorption Lidar (GSFC TROPOZDIAL) has been developed and validated within the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet). Two scientifically interesting ozone episodes are presented that were observed during the 2014 Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER AQ) campaign at Ft. Collins,Colorado.The first case study, occurring between 22-23 July 2014, indicates enhanced concentrations of ozone at Ft. Collins during nighttime hours, which was due to the complex recirculation of ozone within the foothills of the Rocky Mountain region. Although quantifying the ozone increase a loft during recirculation episodes has been historically difficult, results indicate that an increase of 20 -30 ppbv of ozone at the Ft. Collins site has been attributed to this recirculation. The second case, occurring between Aug 4-8th 2014, characterizes a dynamical exchange of ozone between the stratosphere and the troposphere. This case, along with seasonal model parameters from previous years, is used to estimate the stratospheric contribution to the Rocky Mountain region. Results suggest that a large amount of stratospheric air is residing in the troposphere in the summertime near Ft. Collins, CO. The results also indicate that warmer tropopauses are correlated with an increase in stratospheric air below the tropopause in the Rocky Mountain Region.

Sullivan, John T.↗

Expert systems and advanced automation for space missions operations

Increased complexity of space missions during the 1980s led to the introduction of expert systems and advanced automation techniques in mission operations. This paper describes several technologies in operational use or under development at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Goddard Space Flight Center. Several expert systems are described that diagnose faults, analyze spacecraft operations and onboard subsystem performance (in conjunction with neural networks), and perform data quality and data accounting functions. The design of customized user interfaces is discussed, with examples of their application to space missions. Displays, which allow mission operators to see the spacecraft position, orientation, and configuration under a variety of operating conditions, are described. Automated systems for scheduling are discussed, and a testbed that allows tests and demonstrations of the associated architectures, interface protocols, and operations concepts is described. Lessons learned are summarized.

Durrani, Sajjad H.↗

Evolutionary Cell Computing: From Protocells to Self-Organized Computing

On the path from inanimate to animate matter, a key step was the self-organization of molecules into protocells - the earliest ancestors of contemporary cells. Studies of the properties of protocells and the mechanisms by which they maintained themselves and reproduced are an important part of astrobiology. These studies also have the potential to greatly impact research in nanotechnology and computer science. Previous studies of protocells have focussed on self-replication. In these systems, Darwinian evolution occurs through a series of small alterations to functional molecules whose identities are stored. Protocells, however, may have been incapable of such storage. We hypothesize that under such conditions, the replication of functions and their interrelationships, rather than the precise identities of the functional molecules, is sufficient for survival and evolution. This process is called non-genomic evolution. Recent breakthroughs in experimental protein chemistry have opened the gates for experimental tests of non-genomic evolution. On the basis of these achievements, we have developed a stochastic model for examining the evolutionary potential of non-genomic systems. In this model, the formation and destruction (hydrolysis) of bonds joining amino acids in proteins occur through catalyzed, albeit possibly inefficient, pathways. Each protein can act as a substrate for polymerization or hydrolysis, or as a catalyst of these chemical reactions. When a protein is hydrolyzed to form two new proteins, or two proteins are joined into a single protein, the catalytic abilities of the product proteins are related to the catalytic abilities of the reactants. We will demonstrate that the catalytic capabilities of such a system can increase. Its evolutionary potential is dependent upon the competition between the formation of bond-forming and bond-cutting catalysts. The degree to which hydrolysis preferentially affects bonds in less efficient, and therefore less well-ordered, peptides is also critical to evolution of a non-genomic system. Based on these results, a new computational object called a "molnet" is defined. Like a neural network, it is formed of interconnected units that send "signals" to each other. Like molecules, neural networks have a specific function once their structure is defined. The difference between a molnet and traditional neural networks, is that input to molnets is not simply passed along and processed from input to output units, but rather it is utilized to form and break connections(bonds), and thus to form new structures. Molnets represent a powerful tool that can be used to understand the conditions under which chemical systems can form large molecules, such as proteins, and display ever more complex functions. This has direct applications, for example to the design of smart,synthetic fabrics. Additional information is contained in the original.

Colombano, Silvano↗

Automation Hooks Architecture Trade Study for Flexible Test Orchestration

We describe the conclusions of a technology and communities survey supported by concurrent and follow-on proof-of-concept prototyping to evaluate feasibility of defining a durable, versatile, reliable, visible software interface to support strategic modularization of test software development. The objective is that test sets and support software with diverse origins, ages, and abilities can be reliably integrated into test configurations that assemble and tear down and reassemble with scalable complexity in order to conduct both parametric tests and monitored trial runs. The resulting approach is based on integration of three recognized technologies that are currently gaining acceptance within the test industry and when combined provide a simple, open and scalable test orchestration architecture that addresses the objectives of the Automation Hooks task. The technologies are automated discovery using multicast DNS Zero Configuration Networking (zeroconf), commanding and data retrieval using resource-oriented Restful Web Services, and XML data transfer formats based on Automatic Test Markup Language (ATML). This open-source standards-based approach provides direct integration with existing commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) analysis software tools.

Lansdowne, Chatwin A.↗

Exploiting Expertise and Knowledge Sharing Online for the Benefit of NASA's GN&C Community of Practice

In 2004, NASA faced major knowledge sharing challenges due to geographically isolated field centers that inhibited engineers from sharing their experiences, expertise, ideas, and lessons learned. The necessity to collaborate on complex development projects and the reality of constrained project resources together drove the need for ensuring that personnel at all NASA centers had comparable skill sets and that engineers could find resources in a timely fashion. Mission failures and new directions for the Agency also demanded better collaborative tools for NASA's engineering workforce. In response to these needs, the online NASA Engineering Network (NEN) was formed by the NASA Office of the Chief Engineer to provide a multi-faceted system for overcoming geographic and cultural barriers. NEN integrates communities of practice with a cross-repository search and the Lessons Learned Information System. This paper describes the features of the GN&C engineering discipline CoP site which went live on NEN in May of 2008 as an online means of gathering input and guidance from practitioners. It allows GN&C discipline expertise captured at one field center to be shared in a collaborative way with the larger discipline CoP spread across the entire Agency. The site enables GN&C engineers to find the information they need quickly, to find solutions to questions from experienced engineers, and to connect with other practitioners regardless of geographic location, thus increasing the probability of project success.

control↗

Twin Telescope Tests: Assessing Station Oriented Systematic Errors

Each of NASA’s three Deep Space Network sites has multiple large antennas capable of acquiring VLBI data. The long range plan is to have four 34-meter beam waveguide antennas at each site. At present Goldstone has three, Canberra has three, and Madrid has two with two more under construction. These antennas offer the opportunity to do connected element interferometry (CEI) over the few hundred meter baselines within each complex. Given that all antennas within a site are of nominally the same structural design, are run off the same clock, observe through almost the same atmosphere, and are subject to almost the same geophysics, doing CEI experiments is an excellent way to probe the limits of VLBI accuracy and expose station-specific systematic errors. This paper will report the results of just such tests which achieved about 0.2 mm baseline precision per pass. Some stations exhibit more than 1 mm systematics. Based on this data we will discuss the implications for whether the IAG’s goal of 1 mm station stability in VLBI geodesy is possible for large antennas.

Jacobs, Christopher↗

Innovation and application of ANN in Europe demonstrated by Kohonen maps

One of the most important contributions to neural networks comes from Kohonen, Helsinki/Espoo, Finland, who had the idea of self-organizating maps in 1981. He verified his idea by an algorithm of which many applications make use of. The impetus for this idea came from biology, a field where the Europeans have always been very active at several research laboratories. The challenge was to model the self-organization found in the brain. Today one goal is the development of more sophisticated neurons which model the biological neurons more exactly. They should come to a better performance of neural nets with only a few complex neurons instead of many simple ones. A lot of application concepts arise from this idea: Kohonen himself applied it to speech recognition, but the project did not overcome much more than the recognition of the numerals one to ten at that time. A more promising application for self-organizing maps is process control and process monitoring. Several proposals were made which concern parameter classification of semiconductor technologies, design of integrated circuits, and control of chemical processes. Self-organizing maps were applied to robotics. The neural concept was introduced into electric power systems. At Dortmund we are working on a system which has to monitor the quality and the reliability of gears and electrical motors in equipment installed in coal mines. The results are promising and the probability to apply the system in the field is very high. A special feature of the system is that linguistic rules which are embedded in a fuzzy controller analyze the data of the self-organizing map in regard to life expectation of the gears. It seems that the fuzzy technique will introduce the technology of neural networks in a tandem mode. These technologies together with the genetic algorithms start to form the attractive field of computational intelligence.

Goser, Karl↗

Impact of uniform electrode current distribution on ETF

A basic reason for the complexity and sheer volume of electrode consolidation hardware in the MHD ETF Powertrain system is the channel electrode current distribution, which is non-uniform. If the channel design is altered to provide uniform electrode current distribution, the amount of hardware required decreases considerably, but at the possible expense of degraded channel performance. This paper explains the design impacts on the ETF electrode consolidation network associated with uniform channel electrode current distribution, and presents the alternate consolidation designs which occur. They are compared to the baseline (non-uniform current) design with respect to performance, and hardware requirements. A rational basis is presented for comparing the requirements for the different designs and the savings that result from uniform current distribution. Performance and cost impacts upon the combined cycle plant are discussed.

Bents, D. J.↗

Accuracy Assessment of Response Surface Approximations for Supersonic Turbine Design

There is a growing trend to employ CFD tools to supply the necessary information for design optimization of fluid dynamics components/systems. Such results are prone to uncertainties due to reasons including discretization. errors, incomplete convergence of computational procedures, and errors associated with physical models such as turbulence closures. Based on this type of information, gradient-based optimization algorithms often suffer from the noisy calculations, which can seriously compromise the outcome. Similar problems arise from the experimental measurements. Global optimization techniques, such as those based on the response surface (RS) concept are becoming popular in part because they can overcome some of these barriers. However, there are also fundamental issues related to such global optimization technique such as RS. For example, in high dimensional design spaces, typically only a small number of function evaluations are available due to computational and experimental costs. On the other hand, complex features of the design variables do not allow one to model the global characteristics of the design space with simple quadratic polynomials. Consequently a main challenge is to reduce the size of the region where we fit the RS, or make it more accurate in the regions where the optimum is likely to reside. Response Surface techniques using either polynomials or and Neural Network (NN) methods offer designers alternatives to conduct design optimization. The RS technique employs statistical and numerical techniques to establish the relationship between design variables and objective/constraint functions, typically using polynomials. In this study, we aim at addressing issues related to the following questions: (1) How to identify outliers associated with a given RS representation and improve the RS model via appropriate treatments? (2) How to focus on selected design data so that RS can give better performance in regions critical to design optimization? (3) How to combine NN and polynomial techniques for improving the accuracy of the RS model?

Papila, Nilay↗

Technology Infusion of CodeSonar into the Space Network Ground Segment (RII07): Software Assurance Symposium Technical Summary

Presents a source code analysis tool (CodeSonar) for use in the Space Network Ground Segment. The Space Network requires 99.9% proficiency and 97.0% availability of systems. Software has historically accounted for an annual average of 28% of the Space Network loss of availability and proficiency. CSCI A and CSCI B account for 42% of the previous eight months of software data loss. The technology infusion of CodeSonar into the Space Network Ground segment is meant to aid in determining the impact of the technology on the project both in the expenditure of effort and the technical results of the technology. Running a CodeSonar analysis and performing a preliminary review of the results averaged 3.5 minutes per finding (approximately 20 hours total). An additional 40 hours is estimated to analyze the 37 findings deemed too complex for the initial review. Using CodeSonar's tools to suppress known non-problems, delta tool runs will not repeat findings that have been marked as non-problems, further reducing the time needed for review. The 'non-interesting' finding rate of 70% is a large number, but filtering, search, and detailed contextual features of CodeSonar reduce the time per finding. Integration of the tool into the build process may also provide further savings by preventing developers from having to configure and operate the tool separately. These preliminary results show the tool to be easy to use and incorporate into the engineering process. These findings also provide significant potential improvements in proficiency and availability on the part of the software. As time-to-fix data become available a better cost trade can be made on person hours saved versus tool cost. Selective factors may be necessary to determine where best to apply CodeSonar to balance cost and benefits.

Benson, Markland J.↗

Validation of TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) Products in the Peruvian Andes

The relevance of accurate and timely rainfall estimates cannot be overstated. The rainfall gauge network is still insufficient across significant areas worldwide. Rainfall estimates fromspaceborne sensors present an opportunity to supplement the existing network and enable the development of critical, near real time applications. However, the societal benefits of such systems can only be realized if the estimates are properly validated and the performance of existing products accurately described. In this study, two products generated by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) are validated for the Peruvian Andes. This is a region of complex topography that poses significant challenges to the retrieval of rainfall values fromspace. The TMPA products, both research grade (3B42V7) and near real time (3B42RT), are compared against in situ data. Different observation lengths are studied and the results are analyzed in light of geographic, topographic and climatic constraints. The Time Series of the science grade product were also studied under Dynamic TimeWarping and Hierarchical Clustering to streamline intertile comparisons. The TMPA products showa good agreementwith the gauge values, especially formore prolonged observation periods (over 8 days). The validation results display a strong regional dependence as a consequence of differences in the climate and topography. This region-specific performance calls for additional, detailed case studies and localized validation efforts. Overall the TMPAwas found to performadequately and provide quality information for a number of applications requiring timely estimates in convenient formats.

satellites↗

Sensitivity studies of nighttime top-of-atmosphere radiances from artificial light sources using a 3-D radiative transfer model for nighttime aerosol retrievals

By accounting for surface-based light source emissions and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) downward lunar fluxes, we adapted the spherical harmonics discrete ordinate method (SHDOM) 3-dimensional (3-D) radiative transfer model (RTM) to simulate nighttime 3-D TOA radiances as observed from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) on board the Suomi-NPP satellite platform. Used previously for daytime 3-D applications, these new SHDOM enhancements allow for the study of the impacts of various observing conditions and aerosol properties on simulated VIIRS-DNB TOA radiances. Observations over Dakar, Senegal, selected for its bright city lights and a large range of aerosol optical depth (AOD), were investigated for potential applications and opportunities for using observed radiances containing VIIRS-DNB “bright pixels” from artificial light sources to conduct aerosol retrievals. We found that using the standard deviation (SD) of such bright pixels provided a more stable quantity for nighttime AOD retrievals than direct retrievals from TOA radiances. Further, both the mean TOA radiance and SD of TOA radiances over artificial sources are significantly impacted by satellite viewing angles. Light domes, the enhanced radiances adjacent to artificial light sources, are strong functions of aerosol properties and especially aerosol vertical distribution, which may be further utilized for retrieving aerosol layer height in future studies. Through inter-comparison with both day- and nighttime Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data, the feasibility of retrieving nighttime AODs using 3-D RTM SHDOM over artificial light sources was demonstrated. Our study shows strong potential for using artificial light sources for nighttime AOD retrievals, while also highlighting larger uncertainties in quantifying surface light source emissions. This study underscores the need for surface light emission source characterizations as a key boundary condition, which is a complex task that requires enhanced input data and further research. We demonstrate how quality-controlled nighttime light data from NASA’s Black Marble product suite could serve as a primary input into estimations of surface light source emissions for nighttime aerosol retrievals.

Jianglong Zhang↗

Using Piezoelectric Devices to Transmit Power through Walls

A method denoted wireless acoustic-electric feed-through (WAEF) has been conceived for transmitting power and/or data signals through walls or other solid objects made of a variety of elastic materials that could be electrically conductive or nonconductive. WAEF would make it unnecessary to use wires, optical fibers, tubes, or other discrete wall-penetrating signal-transmitting components, thereby eliminating the potential for structural weakening or leakage at such penetrations. Avoidance of such penetrations could be essential in some applications in which maintenance of pressure, vacuum, or chemical or biological isolation is required. In a basic WAEF setup, a transmitting piezoelectric transducer on one side of a wall would be driven at resonance to excite ultrasonic vibrations in the wall. A receiving piezoelectric transducer on the opposite side of the wall would convert the vibrations back to an ultrasonic AC electric signal, which would then be detected and otherwise processed in a manner that would depend on the modulation (if any) applied to the signal and whether the signal was used to transmit power, data, or both. An electromechanical-network model has been derived as a computationally efficient means of analyzing and designing a WAEF system. This model is a variant of a prior model, known in the piezoelectric-transducer art as Mason's equivalent-circuit model, in which the electrical and mechanical dynamics, including electromechanical couplings, are expressed as electrical circuit elements that can include inductors, capacitors, and lumped-parameter complex impedances. The real parts of the complex impedances are used to account for dielectric, mechanical, and coupling losses in all components (including all piezoelectric-transducer, wall, and intermediate material layers). In an application to a three-layer piezoelectric structure, this model was shown to yield the same results as do solutions of the wave equations of piezoelectricity and acoustic propagation in their full complexity.

Sherrit, Stewart↗

Battery Health Quantification for TDRS Spacecraft by Using Signature Discriminability Measurement

The NASA/GSFC Space Network Project Office (SN) currently operates a constellation of ten geosynchronous TDRS spacecraft launched over the past 30 years. The SN project collects up to 16.5 Gigabytes of telemetry every month. Generally, the spacecraft health and functionality are obtained by the use of real-time telemetry data for the multiple spacecraft subsystems, which are transmitted to the main ground station at the White Sands Complex in Las Cruces, NM. Recently, the SN has instituted a program of Big Data to analyze the large amounts of data using a variety of tools including Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence, development of training sets, and a variety of mathematical modeling tools. The goal is to improve spacecraft management and obtain a more accurate prediction of the spacecraft end of life. The combination of these efforts with those of the Aerospace Corporation, which has a contract with the SN to produce yearly reliability estimates for the TDRS fleet, will be performed. This paper presents a new concept called telemetry quality quantification (TQQ) and discusses the progress that has been made in battery performance estimation for the second-generation TDRS spacecraft using a signature discriminability measures (SDM) algorithm combined with the Aerospace Corp. battery life estimation models. This activity is important because many of the TDRS fleet of spacecraft have exceeded their on-orbit design lifetime and, therefore, NASA must carefully manage the spacecraft to continue operations while avoiding an end-of-mission scenario that leaves a non-functioning spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit.

Ma, Kenneth Y.↗

A Distributed Simulation-to-Flight Framework to Support Investigating Trust/Trustworthiness in Multi-Agent Systems

As autonomous systems continue to grow both in use and complexity, the necessity for robust and extensible simulation-to-flight methods is paramount for establishing an effective architecture for autonomous systems. A fundamental objective of the ATTRACTOR (Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability) project was to design and develop a distributed mixed-reality simulation environment to begin establishing a basis for certification of autonomous systems via research into trust and trustworthiness. In this paper, we present an autonomous systems architecture and development framework paired with a persistent distributed modeling and simulation environment for test and evaluation of autonomous systems. The Autonomous Entity Operations Network (AEON) framework enables autonomous system development with an easily extensible collection of libraries and plug-n-play nodes facilitated by the Data Distribution Service (DDS) communication protocol standard. The Baseline Environment for Autonomous Modeling (BEAM) simulation environment is a distributed mixed-reality Unity™-based environment built around the same DDS communication paradigm allowing for easy integration with AEON-based autonomous applications. They were designed under ATTRACTOR in order to measure and establish trustworthiness and trust in single- and multi-agent human-machine systems whether these machines are fixed-wing general aviation, rotary-wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), ground rovers, or even spacecraft. Together AEON and BEAM enable sim-to-flight with minimal configuration changes. By using AEON and BEAM, source code that runs in simulation ports directly to hardware and has successfully flown in the lab and in the National Airspace System (NAS) at NASA LaRC many times over the lifetime of ATTRACTOR.

Benjamin N Kelley↗

A Distributed Simulation-to-Flight Framework to Support Investigating Trust/Trustworthiness in Multi-Agent Systems

As autonomous systems continue to grow both in use and complexity, the necessity for robust and extensible simulation-to-flight methods is paramount for establishing an effective architecture for autonomous systems. A fundamental objective of the ATTRACTOR (Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability) project was to design and develop a distributed mixed-reality simulation environment to begin establishing a basis for certification of autonomous systems via research into trust and trustworthiness. In this paper, we present an autonomous systems architecture and development framework paired with a persistent distributed modeling and simulation environment for test and evaluation of autonomous systems. The Autonomous Entity Operations Network (AEON) framework enables autonomous system development with an easily extensible collection of libraries and plug-n-play nodes facilitated by the Data Distribution Service (DDS) communication protocol standard. The Baseline Environment for Autonomous Modeling (BEAM) simulation environment is a distributed mixed-reality Unity™-based environment built around the same DDS communication paradigm allowing for easy integration with AEON-based autonomous applications. They were designed under ATTRACTOR in order to measure and establish trustworthiness and trust in single- and multi-agent human-machine systems whether these machines are fixed-wing general aviation, rotary-wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), ground rovers, or even spacecraft. Together AEON and BEAM enable sim-to-flight with minimal configuration changes. By using AEON and BEAM, source code that runs in simulation ports directly to hardware and has successfully flown in the lab and in the National Airspace System (NAS) at NASA LaRC many times over the lifetime of ATTRACTOR.

Benjamin N Kelley↗

A Novel Machine Learning Method for Surface PM2.5 Estimations from Geostationary Satellites

Particulate matter (PM) with a diameter of less or equal to 2.5 μm, known as PM , affects human health as it penetrates the respiratory system. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) measures the atmospheric concentration of PM using air quality monitors stationed throughout the Continental United States (CONUS). Such measurements are points on a spatial domain and therefore, might not be representative of the air quality at nearby areas considering that the composition of the atmosphere is highly variable from place to place. Satellite based AOD permits a spatially uniform means of estimating PM and new geostationary satellites provide high temporal and spatial resolution estimation of AOD. However, the concentration of PM is non-linearly dependent on other atmospheric parameters that include relative humidity, temperature, and height of the planetary boundary layer. This information may be estimated at similar spatial and temporal resolutions as AOD from numerical modeling such as from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model which resolves near real-time atmospheric conditions over the CONUS. The estimation of PM concentration is a multi-parametric problem that considers the effect of temporal dependencies among the different parameters. Deep learning approaches are appropriate for such complex estimation problems as they intrinsically capture relations among multiple non-linear parameters. This study compares deep-learning methods to traditional regression analysis to demonstrate the capabilities of these methods in predicting PM2.5 concentrations. Additionally, a novel ensemble learning approach is employed to identify scientific processes that could further improve the estimation of PM concentration. Utilizing Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which are suitable for multivariate time series estimation problems as they are capable of learning long-term dependencies, individual models are created for each EPA station and trained on the aforementioned dataset collocated over each station. Individual station models are merged if the model's performance is improved by reducing the root mean squared error (RMSE) metric. This ensemble training method ultimately reduces the RMSE value. Evaluation of these results provide insights into physical processes and related observable parameters that may contribute to PM concentrations. Identified parameters evaluated to be statistically different between the merged and unmerged models are expected to improve overall performance. These new parameters are then utilized for reevaluation of the deep learning methods with an extreme gradient boosting model with an RMSE of 5.5 providing the best results.

George Priftis↗