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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Weinstock, Robert M↗

Recent Progress at NASA in LlSA Formulation and Technology Development

Over the last year, the NASA portion of the LISA team has been focused its effort on advancing the formulation of the mission and responding to a major National Academy review. This talk will describe advances in, and the current state of: the baseline mission architecture, the performance requirements, the technology development and plans for final integration and test. Interesting results stimulated by the NASINRC Beyond Einstein Program Assessment Review will also be described.

Stebbins, Robin↗

NASA's Space Launch System: Momentum Builds Toward First Launch

NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) is gaining momentum toward the first launch of a new exploration-class heavy lift launch vehicle for international exploration and science initiatives. The SLS comprises an architecture that begins with a vehicle capable of launching 70 metric tons (t) into low Earth orbit. It will launch the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) on its first autonomous flight beyond the Moon and back in December 2017. Its first crewed flight follows in 2021. SLS can evolve to a130-t lift capability and serve as a baseline for numerous robotic and human missions ranging from a Mars sample return to delivering the first astronauts to explore another planet. The SLS Program formally transitioned from the formulation phase to implementation with the successful completion of the rigorous Key Decision Point C review in 2014. As a result, the Agency authorized the Program to move forward to Critical Design Review, scheduled for 2015. In the NASA project life cycle process, SLS has completed 50 percent of its major milestones toward first flight. Every SLS element manufactured development hardware for testing over the past year. Accomplishments during 2013/2014 included manufacture of core stage test articles, preparations for qualification testing the solid rocket boosters and the RS-25 main engines, and shipment of the first flight hardware in preparation for the Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) in 2014. SLS was conceived with the goals of safety, affordability, and sustainability, while also providing unprecedented capability for human exploration and scientific discovery beyond Earth orbit. In an environment of economic challenges, the SLS team continues to meet ambitious budget and schedule targets through the studied use of hardware, infrastructure, and workforce investments the United States made in the last half century, while selectively using new technologies for design, manufacturing, and testing, as well as streamlined management approaches that have increased decision velocity and reduced associated costs. This paper will summarize recent SLS Program accomplishments, as well as the challenges and opportunities ahead for the most powerful and capable launch vehicle in history.

May, Todd A.↗

Quantifying Uncertainty of Landing and Takeoff Noise for Commercial Supersonic Aircraft

Of the many challenges faced by manufacturers attempting to offer supersonic travel to the public, the uncertainty in predicting the noise of these aircraft in airport operations has an immediate impact. No noise regulation exists in FAA or ICAO for certifying such aircraft, as these organization require solid data, usually from existing aircraft. Manufacturers are taking large risks to design a vehicle not knowing whether it will be allowed to fly. A partial solution to this conundrum is to use physics-based simulations to provide the “data” used to calibrate system-level prediction methods, carefully documenting the uncertainty of the method for application to supersonic aircraft. A close look at the accuracy of empirical prediction methods points to areas where improvements need to be made if noise studies of supersonic aircraft are to be useful. As NASA embarks on a focused research program to improve predictions of noise from the noise-dominant propulsion noise of commercial supersonic aircraft, this paper documents the work done to baseline the uncertainties found in today’s noise prediction methods. A relatively simplistic method was developed, summarizing the error of the empirical methods on a component basis and following their impact on the total aircraft during landing and takeoff operations using Monte Carlo analysis. By this method it is found that current empirical noise prediction methods have an uncertainty of 1.5 EPNdB cumulative for propulsion noise of a representative conventional subsonic passenger aircraft. When applied to likely near-term supersonic commercial aircraft, the uncertainty is 7.6 EPNdB cumulative, a difference that must be reduced if the prediction methods are to guide decision makers.

Airport noise↗

A Joint Measurement of $\nu_{\mu}$-Disappearance and $\nu_{e}$e-Appearance in the NuMI beam using the NOvA Experiment

The discovery of neutrino oscillations provides the first indication of a lepton flavor violating (LFV) process, one that isn't predicted by the Standard Model. As such, NOvA is part of a rich experimental program to constrain unknown parameters in the neutrino oscillation model, described for three neutrino flavors using the PMNS unitary matrix. It is a long baseline experiment utilizing two detectors, a Near Detector at Fermilab and a Far Detector in Ash River, Minnesota for a total baseline of 810 km. It receives a predominantly ${\nu_\mu}/\overline{\bar\nu_\mu}$ beam peaking at 1:8 GeV from the NuMI beam facility at Fermilab. There are four oscillation channels used in the analysis, ${\nu_\mu} \to {\nu_\mu}$, ${\nu_\mu} \to {\nu_e}$, ${\overline{\nu}_\mu} \to {\overline{\nu}_\mu}$ and ${\overline{\nu}_\mu} \to {\overline{\nu}_e }$. With a total exposure of 13:6_10$^{20}$ and 12:5_10$^{20}$ protons on target for the neutrino and anti-neutrino beam modes respectively, 82 candidates are seen in the ${\nu_\mu} \to {\nu_e}$ channel for a total predicted backgroundof 26:8 events. Similarly, 33 candidates are seen in the corresponding anti-neutrino channel for a total predicted background of 14:0 events. In the ${\nu_\mu} \to {\nu_\mu}$ $(\overline{\nu}_\mu \to \overline{\nu}_\mu}$ channel, 211 (105) candidates are seen with an expectation of 1156.1 (488.1) events at no oscillations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Optimal sizing of battery energy storage systems for peak shaving and demand response using a degradation-aware Bayesian Optimization-Mixed-Integer Linear Programming framework

The increasing integration of renewable energy and rising electricity demand highlight the importance of battery energy storage systems for peak shaving and demand response. Unlike prior approaches that overlook operational impacts on degradation, this study proposes a Bayesian Optimization–Mixed Integer Linear Programming framework for optimal battery energy storage system sizing. In this framework, Mixed Integer Linear Programming determines short-term scheduling while a calibrated electrochemical model iteratively evaluates degradation. The central hypothesis is that the framework can efficiently identify optimal sizes that yield realistic and economically robust outcomes. The method is tested across three scenarios: peak shaving, peak shaving with energy-reduction demand response, and peak shaving with power-reduction demand response. Results show that the framework converge to the optimum within 20 iterations out of 150 possible sizes. Under baseline conditions, the framework consistently selects the smallest feasible system, minimizing unnecessary degradation costs from oversized storage. Sensitivity analyses reveal that larger systems are favored as demand rates or incentives increase. Comparisons of demand response programs indicate that power-reduction demand response offers greater economic benefits than energy-reduction demand response, although demand savings from peak shaving remain the dominant contributor to overall performance. This study demonstrates that the proposed framework balances computational tractability with degradation fidelity, identifies critical economic thresholds for investment, and offers a practical, flexible tool to guide industrial stakeholders in cost-effective battery energy storage system deployment.

Batteries↗

Advanced Natural Gas Reciprocating Engine(s)

The objective of the Cummins ARES program, in partnership with the US Department of Energy (DOE), is to develop advanced natural gas engine technologies that increase engine system efficiency at lower emissions levels while attaining lower cost of ownership. The goals of the project are to demonstrate engine system achieving 50% Brake Thermal Efficiency (BTE) in three phases, 44%, 47% and 50% (starting baseline efficiency at 36% BTE) and 0.1 g/bhp-hr NOx system out emissions (starting baseline NOx emissions at 2 – 4 g/bhp-hr NOx). Primary path towards above goals include high Brake Mean Effective Pressure (BMEP), improved closed cycle efficiency, increased air handling efficiency and optimized engine subsystems. Cummins has successfully demonstrated each of the phases of this program. All targets have been achieved through application of a combined set of advanced base engine technologies and Waste Heat Recovery from Charge Air and Exhaust streams, optimized and validated on the demonstration engine and other large engines. The following architectures were selected for each Phase: Phase 1: Lean Burn Spark Ignited (SI) Key Technologies: High Efficiency Turbocharging, Higher Efficiency Combustion System. In production on the 60/91L engines. Over 500MW of ARES Phase 1 technology has been sold. Phase 2: Lean Burn Technology with Exhaust Waste Heat Recovery (WHR) System Key Technologies: Advanced Ignition System, Combustion Improvement, Integrated Waste Heat Recovery System. Base engine technologies intended for production within 2 to 3 years Phase 3: Lean Burn Technology with Exhaust and Charge Air Waste Heat Recovery System Key Technologies: Lower Friction, New Cylinder Head Designs, Improved Integrated Waste Heat Recovery System. Intended for production within 5 to 6 years Cummins is committed to the launch of next generation of large advanced NG engines based on ARES technology to be commercialized worldwide.

Pike, Edward↗

Skylab program: Earth resources experiment package. Sensor performance evaluation. Volume 6: (S194) L-band radiometer

Analysis of the Skylab S194 L-band radiometer experiment data provided significant results pertaining to the actual realized performance during flight. Analysis of preflight test data provided a baseline from which to compare the experiment flight performance, although many radiometric data performance capabilities could only be demonstrated in the flight environment. The final results establish the overall hardware performance of the S194 system from which prospective users of the flight data can refer for various scientific applications. Instrument performance is presented in the areas of housekeeping and internal calibration parameters, antenna system integrity, dynamic range, linearity, precision, resolution, and absolute accuracy. Supplementary evaluations were included for an error analysis of system calibration stability. Results of the evaluation show that the instrument performance was generally as expected. Conclusions are drawn from the final evaluation results, and recommendations for improving the effectiveness of a future program are offered.

Kenney, G. P.↗

Ramjet cost estimating handbook

The subject program was conducted for the purpose of generating cost information on ramjet engines and developing a methodology that could be employed to accurately predict production costs ramjet engines. The methodology addresses many different ramjet types, sizes and production quantities. The methodology determines the cost of individual modules of ramjet assemblies based on similarity of the modules to baseline components that are identified in a cost handbook. (There are typically around 20 basic components of a given ramjet to be costed.) The total cost of the engine is a summation of all the appropriate cost elements. A significant accomplishment of the program was the development of a large cost data base on many different configurations, materials of construction and variations in manufacturing processes. This data base should provide a good foundation on which to build other cost data as it becomes available.

Emmons, H. T.↗

The Fourier-Kelvin Stellar Interferometer (FKSI): Infrared Detection and Characterization of Exozodiacal Dust to Super-Earths, A Progress Report

The Fourier-Kelvin Stellar Interferometer (FKSI) is a structurally connected infrared space interferometer with 0.5 m diameter telescopes on a 12.5 m baseline, and is passively cooled to approx.60K. The FKSI operates in the thermal infrared from 3-8 microns in a nulling (or starlight suppressing) mode for the detection and characterization of exoplanets, debris disks, extrasolar zodiacal dust levels. The FKSI will have the highest angular resolution of any infrared space instrument ever made with its nominal resolution of 40 mas at a 5 micron center wavelength. This resolution exceeds that of Spitzer by a factor of 38 and JWST by a factor of 5. The FKSI mission is conceived as a "probe class" or "mid-sized" strategic mission that utilizes technology advances from flagship projects like JWST, SIM, Spitzer, and the technology programs of TPF-I/Darwin. During the past year we began investigating an enhanced version of FKSI with 1-2 m diameter telescopes, passively cooled to 40K, on a 20-m baseline, with a sunshade giving a +/- 45 degree Field-of-Regard. This enhanced design is capable of detecting and characterizing the atmospheres of many 2 Earth-radius super-Earths and a few Earth-twins. We will report progress on the design of the enhanced mission concept and current status of the technologies needed for this mission.

Danchi, W.↗

Improvement Plans of Fermilab’s Proton Accelerator Complex

The flagship of Fermilab's long term research program is the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), located Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota, which will study neutrino oscillations with a baseline of 1300 km. The neutrinos will be produced in the Long Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF), a proposed new beam line from Fermilab's Main Injector. The physics goals of the DUNE require a proton beam with a power of some 2.4 MW at 120 GeV, which is roughly four times the current maximum power. Here I discuss current performance of the Fermilab proton accelerator complex, our plans for construction of the SRF proton linac as key part of the Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II), outline the main challenges toward multi-MW beam power operation of the Fermilab accelerator complex and the staged plan to achieve the required performance over the next 15 years.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Investigation of the Use of Laser Shock Peening for Enhancing Fatigue and Stress Corrosion Cracking Resistance of Nuclear Energy Materials

The objective of this project, which includes close collaboration with scientists from INL and ANL, is to investigate and demonstrate the use of advanced mechanical surface treatments like laser shock peening (LSP) and ultrasonic nanocrystal surface modification (UNSM) and establish baseline parameters for enhancing the fatigue properties and SCC resistance of nuclear materials like nickel-based alloy 600 and 304 stainless steel. The research program includes the following key elements/tasks: 1) Procurement of Alloy 600 and 304 SS, heat treatment studies; 2) LSP and UNSM processing of base metal and welds/HAZ of alloys 600 and 304; (3) measurement and mapping of surface and sub-surface residual strains/stresses and microstructural changes as a function of process parameters using novel methods; (4) determination of thermal relaxation of residual stresses (macro and micro) and microstructure evolution with time at high temperatures typical of service conditions and modeling of the kinetics of relaxation; (5) evaluation of the effects of residual stress, near surface microstructure and temperature on SCC and fatigue resistance and associated microstructural mechanisms; and (6) studies of the effects of bulk and surface grain boundary engineering on improvements in the SCC resistance and associated microstructural and cracking mechanisms

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Long-Term Daily and Monthly Climate Records from Stations Across the Contiguous United States (U.S. Historical Climatology Network)

The United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) is a high-quality data set of daily and monthly records of basic meteorological variables from 1218 observing stations across the 48 contiguous United States. Daily data include observations of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation amount, snowfall amount, and snow depth; monthly data consist of monthly-averaged maximum, minimum, and mean temperature and total monthly precipitation. Most of these stations are U.S. Cooperative Observing Network stations located generally in rural locations, while some are National Weather Service First-Order stations that are often located in more urbanized environments. The USHCN has been developed over the years at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) to assist in the detection of regional climate change. Furthermore, it has been widely used in analyzing U.S. climte. The period of record varies for each station. USHCN stations were chosen using a number of criteria including length of record, percent of missing data, number of station moves and other station changes that may affect data homogeneity, and resulting network spatial coverage. Collaboration between NCDC and CDIAC on the USHCN project dates to the 1980s (Quinlan et al. 1987). At that time, in response to the need for an accurate, unbiased, modern historical climate record for the United States, the Global Change Research Program of the U.S. Department of Energy and NCDC chose a network of 1219 stations in the contiguous United States that would become a key baseline data set for monitoring U.S. climate. This initial USHCN data set contained monthly data and was made available free of charge from CDIAC. Since then it has been comprehensively updated several times [e.g., Karl et al. (1990) and Easterling et al. (1996)]. The initial USHCN daily data set was made available through CDIAC via Hughes et al. (1992) and contained a 138-station subset of the USHCN. This product was updated by Easterling et al. (1999) and expanded to include 1062 stations. In 2009 the daily USHCN dataset was expanded to include all 1218 stations in the USHCN.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation of abort procedures for space shuttle-type vehicles

An investigation has been made of abort procedures for space shuttle-type vehicles using a point mass trajectory optimization program known as POST. This study determined the minimum time gap between immediate and once-around safe return to the launch site from a baseline due-East launch trajectory for an alternate space shuttle concept which experiences an instantaneous loss of 25 percent of the total main engine thrust.

Powell, R. W.↗

The 747 primary flight control systems reliability and maintenance study

The major operational characteristics of the 747 Primary Flight Control Systems (PFCS) are described. Results of reliability analysis for separate control functions are presented. The analysis makes use of a NASA computer program which calculates reliability of redundant systems. Costs for maintaining the 747 PFCS in airline service are assessed. The reliabilities and cost will provide a baseline for use in trade studies of future flight control system design.

Source record↗

The SIRTF mission

This paper describes the scientific and technical background and prospects for the Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF). SIRTF is a cryogenically-cooled, one meter-class space telescope which will be operated by NASA as an observatory for infrared astronomy, in the mid-1990's. SIRTF will provide detailed studies of even the faintest IRAS sources, important new capabilities for the study of known astrophysical phenomena, and the potential to make new and unexpected discoveries about the nature of the universe. The long-life SIRTF mission has undergone intensive review by the SIRTF Science Working Group, which was selected in mid-1984. This paper presents the outcome of that review process and describes the SIRTF program as it is now envisioned. Particular emphasis will be placed on the choice of orbit for SIRTF, the SIRTF scientific performance requirements, and the baseline design concept for the SIRTF facility and mission.

Werner, Michael W.↗

Neural Architectures for Control

The cerebellar model articulated controller (CMAC) neural architectures are shown to be viable for the purposes of real-time learning and control. Software tools for the exploration of CMAC performance are developed for three hardware platforms, the MacIntosh, the IBM PC, and the SUN workstation. All algorithm development was done using the C programming language. These software tools were then used to implement an adaptive critic neuro-control design that learns in real-time how to back up a trailer truck. The truck backer-upper experiment is a standard performance measure in the neural network literature, but previously the training of the controllers was done off-line. With the CMAC neural architectures, it was possible to train the neuro-controllers on-line in real-time on a MS-DOS PC 386. CMAC neural architectures are also used in conjunction with a hierarchical planning approach to find collision-free paths over 2-D analog valued obstacle fields. The method constructs a coarse resolution version of the original problem and then finds the corresponding coarse optimal path using multipass dynamic programming. CMAC artificial neural architectures are used to estimate the analog transition costs that dynamic programming requires. The CMAC architectures are trained in real-time for each obstacle field presented. The coarse optimal path is then used as a baseline for the construction of a fine scale optimal path through the original obstacle array. These results are a very good indication of the potential power of the neural architectures in control design. In order to reach as wide an audience as possible, we have run a seminar on neuro-control that has met once per week since 20 May 1991. This seminar has thoroughly discussed the CMAC architecture, relevant portions of classical control, back propagation through time, and adaptive critic designs.

Peterson, James K.↗

Atmospheric disturbance model for aircraft and space capable vehicles

An atmospheric disturbance model (ADM) is developed that considers the requirements of advanced aerospace vehicles and balances algorithmic assumptions with computational constraints. The requirements for an ADM include a realistic power spectrum, inhomogeneity, and the cross-correlation of atmospheric effects. The baseline models examined include the Global Reference Atmospheric Model Perturbation-Modeling Technique, the Dryden Small-Scale Turbulence Description, and the Patchiness Model. The Program to Enhance Random Turbulence (PERT) is developed based on the previous models but includes a revised formulation of large-scale atmospheric disturbance, an inhomogeneous Dryden filter, turbulence statistics, and the cross-correlation between Dryden Turbulence Filters and small-scale thermodynamics. Verification with the Monte Carlo approach demonstrates that the PERT software provides effective simulations of inhomogeneous atmospheric parameters.

Chimene, Beau C.↗