Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Variability analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Predicting soil carbon changes in switchgrass grown on marginal lands under climate change and adaptation strategies

Abstract The United States Great Lakes Region (USGLR) is a critical geographic area for future bioenergy production. Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) is widely considered a carbon (C)‐neutral or C‐negative bioenergy production system, but projected increases in air temperature and precipitation due to climate change might substantially alter soil organic C (SOC) dynamics and storage in soils. This study examined long‐term SOC changes in switchgrass grown on marginal land in the USGLR under current and projected climate, predicted using a process‐based model (Systems Approach to Land‐Use Sustainability) extensively calibrated with a wealth of plant and soil measurements at nine experimental sites. Simulations indicate that these soils are likely a net C sink under switchgrass (average gain 0.87 Mg C ha −1 year −1 ), although substantial variation in the rate of SOC accumulation was predicted (range: 0.2–1.3 Mg C ha −1 year −1 ). Principal component analysis revealed that the predicted intersite variability in SOC sequestration was related in part to differences in climatic characteristics, and to a lesser extent, to heterogeneous soils. Although climate change impacts on switchgrass plant growth were predicted to be small (4%–6% decrease on average), the increased soil respiration was predicted to partially negate SOC accumulations down to 70% below historical rates in the most extreme scenarios. Increasing N fertilizer rate and decreasing harvest intensity both had modest SOC sequestration benefits under projected climate, whereas introducing genotypes better adapted to the longer growing seasons was a much more effective strategy. Best‐performing adaptation scenarios were able to offset >60% of the climate change impacts, leading to SOC sequestration 0.7 Mg C ha −1 year −1 under projected climate. On average, this was 0.3 Mg C ha −1 year −1 more C sequestered than the no adaptation baseline. These findings provide crucial knowledge needed to guide policy and operational management for maximizing SOC sequestration of future bioenergy production on marginal lands in the USGLR.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Novel Method for Preoperative Positioning of Total Ankle Replacement Using 3D Digital Model

Abstract Objective To establish a digital model of the ankle joint through 3D imaging technology and explore the preoperative placement of ankle replacement prostheses. Methods Computed tomography images of intact ankle joints from 54 cases in the outpatient and inpatient departments of our hospital were collected; according to the INBONE® total ankle system surgery process, the surgery model and surgical osteotomy were finished using MIMICS based on computer simulation method. The shortest distance was measured between the center point and the anterior, posterior, medial, and lateral, respectively, to ensure the precise position of the ankle replacement prosthesis by digital simulation surgery. The relationship between the two variables was analyzed by bivariate correlation analysis. Results The dataset of this study included 48 cases of the sub‐data set (26 males and 22 females) and included 27 cases of left ankle and 21 cases of right ankle. The average medial malleolar angle was 18.67°± 2.87°, the average amount of bone resection was 12.13 ± 1.86 cm 3 , the mid‐anterior distance was 1.72 ± 0.19 cm, the mid‐posterior distance was 2.00 ± 0.19 cm, the ratio of mid‐anterior to mid‐posterior was 0.87, the mid‐medial distance was 1.26 ± 0.17 cm, the mid‐lateral distance was 1.19 ± 0.16 cm, and the ratio of mid‐medial to mid‐lateral was 1.06. After osteotomy, the anteroposterior diameter was 3.73 ± 0.32 cm, the transverse diameter was 2.46 ± 0.27 cm, and the ratio of anteroposterior diameter to transverse diameter was 1.53. In the bottom view, the shape after osteotomy is rectangular. The mid‐anterior distance was strongly negatively correlated with age, the mid‐anterior distance and the amount of bone resection, the mid‐medial distance and the amount of bone resection, the mid‐lateral distance and the amount of bone resection, the mid‐lateral distance and the anteroposterior diameter, the anteroposterior diameter and the transverse diameter were all strongly positively correlated. Conclusion The projection point of the lower tibia centerline on the tibial horizontal osteotomy surface is located at a position slightly anterior to the midpoint of the transverse diameter after ankle arthroplasty. The rational positioning of the total ankle replacement is located at both a position slightly anterior to the midpoint of the transverse diameter and midpoint of the anteroposterior diameter, which can be used as a reference method before total ankle arthroplasty surgery.

Wu, Shi‐xun↗

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse↗

The Evolving Role of Extreme Weather Events in the U.S. Power System with High Levels of Variable Renewable Energy

As weather-dependent renewable generation grows, it is important for power system planning to understand the broad trends and correlations between weather, renewable resources, and load. The traditional planning, performed by utilities and system operators, includes the study of system resource adequacy during peak load periods in the summer and winter to ensure the generation and transmission system is appropriate to meet load. But in a power grid with a high penetration of variable renewable energy (i.e., wind and solar), periods of high risk to system resource adequacy may no longer correspond only to hours of peak load. In particular, high shares of variable renewable energy, even when well-forecasted to inform system operations, can further complicate the stress extreme weather events already place on the grid. They also may lead to changes to the types of weather conditions that are most problematic to system operations and resource adequacy due to widespread and extended deficits of wind and solar generation. Accordingly, the focus of reliability assessments in long-term planning studies may need to evolve in the coming years to more fully incorporate weather events that lead to these deficits. This report seeks to identify these new weather events and understand the characteristics of the events that lead to system risk of future systems with higher penetrations variable renewable energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Two-Dimensional Silk Crystal Films as Matrix Layer for High-Performance Microelectronics

This study explores a bio-inspired approach for memristive devices by combining Keggin-type polyoxometalates (POMs)-[SiW 12 O 40 ] 4 (POM-T) and [PW 12 O 40 ] 3 (POM-P), with silk fibroin (SF) to create 2D SF–POM layers on highly ordered pyrolytic graphite (HOPG) as resistive switching layers for memristors. We propose that the ordered SF layer template 0D POMs facilitate the formation of conductive filaments, thereby enhancing the variability of the manufactured memristors. AFM analysis revealed that both SF and SF–POM layers shared similar morphologies, while SF–POM–T formed larger aggregates, likely due to the stronger acidity of POM-T, which probably caused SF to aggregate and alter its secondary structure. Scanning Kelvin probe microscopy (SKPM) revealed that POMs reduced the contact potential difference of HOPG, resulting in lower work functions. Compared to an SF device, the SF–POM–P device showed improved memristive behavior, with a larger current gap and good repeatability over multiple sweeps; whereas the SF–POM–T device did not exhibit memristor activity, likely due to acidity-induced disruption of the SF template’s order and CF formation. More importantly, SF–POM–P devices also demonstrated programmable memristive states. Finally, combining simulation-driven memristor modeling, we showcase a co-design workflow for advancing bioinspired memristors through new materials design, synthesis, and device modeling and development.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Education for PV Modeling Professionals: Observations from the 2025 PVPMC Workshop

We surveyed professionals in the photovoltaic industry to understand interests in education and training for performance modeling of solar power systems. We found that most professionals are self-taught and rely on a variety of public sources of technical materials. Available formal education, such as courses or certification programs, either lacks detail or is focused on software user training. Responses indicate several opportunities to create public resources that would benefit professional learning for solar power system modeling: • Create a glossary of terms and common variable names. • Develop guidance on uncertainty analysis in the context of solar power systems modeling. • Assemble a catalog of available educational materials and data sources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quantifying the Effect of Economic Development Zones on Electrical Load Growth in Kentucky [Slides]

The Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet has recently undertaken a comprehensive effort to map and catalog potential economic development sites across the state. The purpose of this technical assistance is to quantify the potential impact of developing designated sites on Kentucky's electricity load growth, providing insights at both state and county level considering the next 10 years. This analysis should explicitly incorporate and address key project uncertainties by developing various load growth scenarios that account for development scale, site specificity, and sector variability. The need for a site-specific analysis comes from the understanding that conventional econometric (top-down) load forecasting models cannot sufficiently isolate or predict the discrete load increases resulting from the development of these unique and targeted economic sites.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A novel approach for tetrahedral-element-based finite element simulations of anisotropic hyperelastic intervertebral disc behavior

Intervertebral discs are microstructurally complex spinal tissues that add greatly to the flexibility and mechanical strength of the human spine. Attempting to provide an adjustable basis for capturing a wide range of mechanical characteristics and to better address known challenges of numerical modeling of the disc, we present a robust finite-element-based model formulation for spinal segments in a hyperelastic framework using tetrahedral elements. We evaluate the model stability and accuracy using numerical simulations, with particular attention to the degenerated intervertebral discs and their likely skewed and narrowed geometry. To this end, 1) annulus fibrosus is modeled as a fiber-reinforced Mooney-Rivlin type solid for numerical analysis. 2) An adaptive state-variable dependent explicit time step is proposed and utilized here as a computationally efficient alternative to theoretical estimates. 3) Tetrahedral-element-based FE models for spinal segments under various loading conditions are evaluated for their use in robust numerical simulations. For flexion, extension, lateral bending, and axial rotation load cases, numerical simulations reveal that a suitable framework based on tetrahedral elements can provide greater stability and flexibility concerning geometrical meshing over commonly employed hexahedral-element-based ones for representation and study of spinal segments in various stages of degeneration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Orbital Refinement and Stellar Properties for the HD 9446, HD 43691, and HD 179079 Planetary Systems

The Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey is a project that aims to detect transits of intermediate-long period planets by refining orbital parameters of the known radial velocity planets using additional data from ground-based telescopes, calculating a revised transit ephemeris for the planet, then monitoring the planet host star during the predicted transit window. Here we present the results from three systems that had high probabilities of transiting planets: HD 9446 b and c, HD 43691 b, and HD 179079 b. We provide new radial velocity (RV) measurements that are then used to improve the orbital solution for the known planets. We search the RV data for indications of additional planets in orbit and find that HD 9446 shows a strong linear trend of 4.8σ. Using the newly refined planet orbital solutions, which include a new best-fit solution for the orbital period of HD 9446 c, and an improved transit ephemerides, we found no evidence of transiting planets in the photometry for each system. Transits of HD 9446 b can be ruled out completely and transits HD 9446 c and HD 43691 b can be ruled out for impact parameters up to b = 0.5778 and b = 0.898, respectively, due to gaps in the photometry. A transit of HD 179079 b cannot be ruled out, however, due to the relatively small size of this planet compared to the large star and thus low signal to noise. We determine properties of the three host stars through spectroscopic analysis and find through photometric analysis that HD 9446 exhibits periodic variability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Availability Estimates of Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity (LDE)

This dataset accompanies the report "Potential Availability of and Supply Curves for Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity", which provides initial estimates of the quantity and availability of the potential low-cost, dispatch-constrained electricity (LDE) resource in the United States under scenarios with high variable renewable energy (VRE) penetrations. The analysis also estimates supply curves that can be used in subsequent analysis of the opportunity to use the LDE. The estimated LDE resource could be used for various applications that value low-cost electricity and can operate at reduced capacity factors, including electrolytic hydrogen production and carbon capture. The analysis accompanying this dataset was performed in 2018-2019 to support an analysis of "The Technical and Economic Potential of the H2@Scale Concept within the United States" ( https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy21osti/77610.pdf ). This dataset includes the quantity of estimated LDE resource for each hour of the year in 2050, aggregated to both the national level and the ReEDS balancing area level. As described in the accompanying report, the ReEDS model was used to project the evolution of the power sector over time. Links to the mapping of ReEDS balancing areas to states and ReEDS balancing area shape files are provided. This dataset also includes the report figure data.

08 HYDROGEN↗

The stability of motion of satellites with flexible appendages

The mathematical formulation associated with the problem of stability of motion of a satellite consisting of a main rigid body and three (or less) pairs of flexible rods is presented. The rods are capable of flexure in two orthogonal directions. Whereas the rotational motion of the body is described by generalized coordinates depending on time alone, the elastic displacements of the rods depend both on spatial position and time. Assuming no external torques, there exist motion integrals in the form of momentum integrals. These integrals can be regarded as constraint equations relating the system velocities, and used to reduce the number of variables describing the motion. The stability analysis has been carried out by means of an extension of the Liapunov direct method. Since the elastic vibrations result in energy dissipation, it is shown that the equilibrium position is asymptotically stable if the Hamiltonian is positive definite and unstable if it can take negative values in the neighborhood of the equilibrium. Determining the sign definiteness of the Hamiltonian is complicated by the fact that it contains spatial derivatives of the elastic displacements. Two methods are presented to cope with this problem. The first, the standard modal analysis in conjunction with series truncation, develops criteria in terms of infinite series associated with the natural modes and frequencies of the elastic rods. The second, the method of integral coordinates, yields closed-form stability criteria involving the system parameters, such as the body moments of inertia, the length and mass distribution of the rods, the lowest natural frequencies of the rods, and the satellite spin velocity.

Meirovitch, L.↗

Preliminary design-lift/cruise fan research and technology airplane flight control system

This report presents the preliminary design of a stability augmentation system for a NASA V/STOL research and technology airplane. This stability augmentation system is postulated as the simplest system that meets handling qualities levels for research and technology missions flown by NASA test pilots. The airplane studied in this report is a T-39 fitted with tilting lift/cruise fan nacelles and a nose fan. The propulsion system features a shaft interconnecting the three variable pitch fans and three power plants. The mathematical modeling is based on pre-wind tunnel test estimated data. The selected stability augmentation system uses variable gains scheduled with airspeed. Failure analysis of the system illustrates the benign effect of engine failure. Airplane rate sensor failure must be solved with redundancy.

Gotlieb, P.↗

The preliminary design of a lift-cruise fan airplane flight control system

This paper presents the preliminary design of a stability augmentation system for a NASA V/STOL research and technology airplane. This stability augmentation system is postulated as the simplest system that meets handling-quality levels for research and technology missions flown by NASA test pilots. The airplane studied in this report is a modified T-39 fitted with tilting lift/cruise fan nacelles and a nose fan. The propulsion system features a shaft that interconnects three variable-pitch fans and three powerplants. The mathematical modeling is based on pre-wind tunnel test estimated data. The selected stability augmentation system uses variable gains scheduled with airspeed. Failure analysis of the system illustrates the benign effect of engine failure. Airplane rate sensor failure must be solved with redundancy.

Gotlieb, P.↗

Sampling analysis for the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite System mission based on orbital coverage and cloud variability

It is pointed out that accurate computation of the earth's radiation budget from satellite measurements requires spatial and temporal sampling which accounts for variations in cloud and surface conditions. It is in this connection important that cloud radiative properties and areal cloud cover be accurately determined for the desired time period. The reported investigation represents an extension of a study by Harrison et al. (1976). The time and space coverage capabilities of various sampling schemes are analyzed for the proposed Earth Radiation Budget Satellite System. The effects of cloud cover variability on the measured monthly mean reflected shortwave (0.2-5.0 micrometers) irradiance are also analyzed for several spatial scales.

Harrison, E. F.↗

Man-machine analysis of translation and work tasks of Skylab films

An objective approach to determine the concurrent validity of computer-graphic models is real time film analysis. This technique was illustrated through the procedures and results obtained in an evaluation of translation of Skylab mission astronauts. The quantitative analysis was facilitated by the use of an electronic film analyzer, minicomputer, and specifically supportive software. The uses of this technique for human factors research are: (1) validation of theoretical operator models; (2) biokinetic analysis; (3) objective data evaluation; (4) dynamic anthropometry; (5) empirical time-line analysis; and (6) consideration of human variability. Computer assisted techniques for interface design and evaluation have the potential for improving the capability for human factors engineering.

Hosler, W. W.↗

The effect of inflow velocity profiles on the performance of supersonic ejector nozzles

The design of supersonic nozzles is becoming increasingly complex as conflicting requirements for low noise, higher efficiency, and wider operating range are driving the designer toward more variable geometry and multiple stream flows. Analysis techniques must be modified and expanded to take into account these additional complexities and still retain the rapid computational rate necessary for optimization and design studies. A nozzle analysis must handle more flow streams, more complex geometries, and more highly distorted initial profiles. This paper discusses some modifications to a method for calculating the performance characteristics of supersonic ejector nozzles and demonstrates the improvement in results the modifications provide.

Bishop, A. R.↗