Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “State estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,081 records · Page 60

NLR HPC Eagle Jobs Data and Additional Energy Metrics

Overview: Anonymized job-level records from the Eagle high-performance computing (HPC) system at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). Each record represents a Slurm batch job with scheduling metadata, resource requests, resource utilization, CPU/GPU energy consumption, and efficiency metrics. Sensitive fields (user, account, job name) are replaced with cryptographic hashes. System & Timeframe: Eagle was a 2,000-node, 8-petaflop system operated at NLR from 2019–2024. Data covers the full operational lifetime of the system. Slurm data was processed nightly; timestamps are in Mountain Time. Funding provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, EERE. Files: esif.hpc.eagle.job-anon.zip — Core anonymized job records (Hive-partitioned Parquet) esif.hpc.eagle.job-anon-energy-metrics.zip — Same records with additional iLO and Ganglia energy metrics datacard.md — Full dataset documentation ~13.8 million rows, 62 variables. Readable with PyArrow, pandas, DuckDB, Apache Spark, or any Parquet-compatible tool. Data Collection: Jobs collected via sacct through a pipeline: Eagle Jobs API → Redpanda → StreamSets → HPCMON API → PostgreSQL. Node-level power from iLO (HP Integrated Lights-Out); GPU power from Ganglia monitoring, joined to jobs via node lists and time ranges. Preprocessing: Anonymization of name, user, and account fields via cryptographic hashing Derived columns: queue_wait, cpu_eff, max_mem_eff Simplified job state mapping (e.g., "CANCELLED BY 12345" → "CANCELLED") QoS accounting rules (buy-in, standby, or Slurm QoS value) CPU energy estimated from TDP (200W, Intel Xeon Gold 6154, 18 cores) Timezone-aware columns (_tz) sourced from LEX accounting database to correctly handle DST transitions Key Variables: Scheduling: job_id, partition, state_simple, submit_time_tz, start_time_tz, end_time_tz, queue_waitResources: nodes_req/used, processors_req/used, memory_req, wallclock_req/used, gpus_requested Efficiency: cpu_eff, max_mem_eff Energy: cpu_energy_tdp_estimated_max/used_watt_hours, node_energy_total_watt_hours (iLO), gpu0/1_energy_total_watt_hours (Ganglia) Partitions: bigmem, bigmem-8600, bigscratch, csc, dav, ddn, debug, gpu, haswell, long, mono, short, standard Job States: CANCELLED, COMPLETED, FAILED, NODE_FAIL, OUT_OF_MEMORY, PENDING, RUNNING, TIMEOUT QoS Levels: Unknown, normal, buy-in, debug, penalty, high, standby Important Notes: Non-_tz timestamp columns may be off by one hour across DST boundaries; use _tz columns for time difference calculations Energy fields are null for jobs without monitoring coverage Job step records and raw Slurm JSONB fields are excluded from this extract Do not attempt to re-identify individuals from hashed fields

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (R eff ) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median R eff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median R eff 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58–1.39) or face masks (median R eff 0.97, 95% CI 0.58–1.39). While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Predictive modeling of a subcritical pulverized-coal power plant for optimization: Parameter estimation, validation, and application

As renewable power generation deployment increases, fossil fuel plants are increasingly required to operate more flexibly. Many coal-fired power plants were originally designed to operate at base load and do not operate optimally at partial load. Predictive first-principles plant-wide models can be employed to identify opportunities for flexibility improvements and diagnose low-load operating issues. This paper describes the application of the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems Integrated Platform (IDAES) to model and optimize flexible power plant operations. The key benefits of using IDAES are that it provides an open-source, fully equation-oriented modeling framework for efficient modular model construction, reuse, and customization, together with a mathematical optimization framework leveraging powerful, state-of-the-art solvers. The process systems engineering workflow from predictive process simulation to parameter estimation, model validation, and plant optimization is applicable to a variety of existing and next-generation energy systems as well as other chemical and environmental processes. Here, to demonstrate this capability, a physics-based, steady-state model was developed to improve full- and part-load performance of the Escalante Generating Station, a 245 MWe (net) subcritical pulverized coal-fired power plant owned and operated by Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association. Specifically, sixty-nine model parameters were simultaneously estimated from several months of operating data enabling prediction of flow rates, temperatures, pressures, and steam quality throughout the plant. The validated model was leveraged by Escalante to reduce the minimum operating load from 90 MW to 50 MW by diagnosing a low-load water-hammer issue, enabling coal usage and emissions reductions during periods of low power demand. Additionally, opportunities for heat rate reduction (i.e., efficiency improvement) through a steeper sliding-pressure approach to load-following and optimization of other boiler operating variables were also identified and quantified. For example, a potential efficiency improvement of 0.7 percentage points was observed at half-load operation.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

CFD modeling of natural circulation in LiCl-KCl molten salt closed loop

Characterizing flow within a molten salt closed-loop system is crucial for assessing system requirements, evaluating performance, and identifying potential flaws. Direct flow measurement using instrumentation is challenging due to extreme environmental conditions and the limitations associated with measuring molten salt flow under natural convection. Here, this study aims to provide comprehensive insights into the thermal-hydraulic behavior of a closed loop, with a particular focus on temperature distribution and velocity prediction. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model demonstrated the capability to effectively simulate and predict both temperature distributions and flow velocities within the molten salt loop. The CFD model's predictive capability was validated by its ability to replicate temperature measurements under varying boundary conditions. The analysis revealed that the CFD model tends to underpredict temperatures in the cold leg and overpredict them in the hot leg, highlighting the need for continuous model refinement and acknowledging the limitations of using a steady-state approach. Furthermore, the potential of using external temperature measurements to estimate internal molten salt temperatures and predict flow velocity was explored, revealing that this approach could introduce up to a 5.5% error in flow velocity calculations. Line probes mapping temperature distributions across the tube's cross-section and molten salt provided valuable insights into temperature gradients, emphasizing the need for a thermal conductivity equation for molten salt with lower uncertainty to achieve more accurate temperature predictions of the system.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Estimating QSVT angles for matrix inversion with large condition numbers

Quantum Singular Value Transformation (QSVT) is a state-of-the-art, near-optimal quantum algorithm that can be used for matrix inversion. The QSVT circuit is parameterized by a sequence of angles that must be pre-calculated classically, with the number of angles increasing as the matrix condition number grows. Computing QSVT angles for ill-conditioned problems is a numerically challenging task. Here, we propose a numerical technique for estimating QSVT angles for large condition numbers. This technique allows one to avoid expensive numerical computations of QSVT angles and to emulate QSVT circuits for solving ill-conditioned problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Closing the methane gap in US oil and natural gas production emissions inventories

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from oil and natural gas (O&NG) systems are an important contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. In the United States, recent synthesis studies of field measurements of CH 4 emissions at different spatial scales are ~1.5–2× greater compared to official greenhouse gas inventory (GHGI) estimates, with the production-segment as the dominant contributor to this divergence. Based on an updated synthesis of measurements from component-level field studies, we develop a new inventory-based model for CH 4 emissions, for the production-segment only, that agrees within error with recent syntheses of site-level field studies and allows for isolation of equipment-level contributions. We find that unintentional emissions from liquid storage tanks and other equipment leaks are the largest contributors to divergence with the GHGI. If our proposed method were adopted in the United States and other jurisdictions, inventory estimates could better guide CH 4 mitigation policy priorities.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Interplay Between Time and Energy in Bosonic Noisy Quantum Metrology

Quantum entanglement and coherence often allow for protocols that outperform classical ones in estimating a system’s parameter. When using infinite-dimensional probes (such as a bosonic mode), one could, in principle, obtain infinite precision in a finite time for both classical and quantum protocols, which makes it hard to quantify potential quantum advantage. However, such a situation is unphysical, as it would require infinite resources, so one needs to impose some additional constraint: typically the average energy employed by the probe is finite. Here we treat both energy and time as a resource, showing that, in the presence of noise, there is a nontrivial interplay between the average energy and the time devoted to the estimation. Our results are valid for the most general metrological schemes (e.g., adaptive schemes, which may involve entanglement with external ancillae or any kind of continuous measurement). We apply recently derived precision bounds for all parameters characterizing the paradigmatic case of a bosonic mode, subject to Lindbladian noise. We show how the time employed in the estimation should be partitioned in order to achieve the best possible precision. In most cases, the optimal performance may be obtained without the necessity of adaptivity or entanglement with ancilla. We compare results with classical strategies. Interestingly, for temperature estimation, applying a fast-prepare-and-measure protocol with Fock states provides better scaling with the number of photons than any classical strategy.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Towards non-contact pollution monitoring in sewers with hyperspectral imaging

Monitoring water quality in sewers is challenging, particularly because state-of-the-art technologies require contact with the raw wastewater. The presence of fat, oil, grease, and solids makes automated grab sampling difficult and causes sensor fouling. To overcome these limitations, non-contact methods based on light reflectance, such as hyperspectral imaging (HSI), are gaining attention. However, HSI has never been tested for raw wastewater. To assess its accuracy for measuring pollution, we developed a laboratory setup and performed targeted experiments with a combination of raw and diluted wastewater, as well as synthetic turbidity stock solutions. We measured seven pollution variables: chemical oxygen demand, turbidity, dissolved organic compounds, ammonium, total nitrogen, phosphate, and sulphates. We used automated pixel selection and partial least squares regression to retrieve pollution information from the hyperspectral images. Our results, based on 144 samples, suggest that HSI can estimate pollution levels with a precision in the range of state-of-the-art absorbance spectrophotometric methods. Additionally, we found that the combination of pixel and wavelength selection, enabled by the hyperspectral data structure, significantly influences the performance of partial least square modelling. Overall, our findings indicate that HSI is a promising technology for non-contact monitoring of water quality in raw wastewater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ENERGY STAR for Tenants: An Online Energy Estimation Tool for Commercial Office Building Tenants

The commercial building sector consumes over 18% of the total energy in the United States. According to the 2012 Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS), office buildings comprise nearly 16 billion square feet of floor space and consume 253 billion kWh of energy annually. Office buildings represent nearly one-fifth of the energy consumed by commercial buildings, more than any other building type. Therefore, monitoring and reducing energy consumption in office buildings has become an increasingly important focus across the United States. The goal of the ENERGY STAR for Tenants program is to recognize office building tenants who demonstrate commitment to energy efficiency and environmental stewardship. Tenants seeking recognition must complete five major steps: estimate energy use, meter energy use, use efficient lighting, use efficient equipment, and share data. NREL is responsible for the underlying analysis performed for step one, estimating energy use. An online survey was developed for tenants to input information about their office space and its internal loads. NREL performed a parametric analysis across a large parameter space of office buildings. The analysis results were processed to map the user inputs to output energy ranges. The mappings enable the web tool to provide users with instant energy usage estimates based on a limited number of inputs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Models

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models (https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/jedi/) are publicly available, user-friendly tools designed to estimate the economic impacts of both construction and operation of power generation and biofuel plants at a local (usually state) level. Based on project-specific and default inputs (from techno-economic analysis data and NREL's expertise), these models estimate the number of jobs and economic benefits to a region that could reasonably be supported by a particular project. Underlying these calculations is an input-output framework that models the local economy as a network of sectors buying and selling to one-another, creating a multiplier effect. Over the last decade, JEDI has been widely used by both the academic and private sectors, serving as the foundations for multiple peer-reviewed publications and impact analysis reports.

economic impact analysis↗

On the Prediction of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Within a Data-Driven Framework

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) pose the largest uncertainty for climate projection. Among many challenges of understanding ACI, the question of whether ACI can be deterministically predicted has not been explicitly answered. Here we attempt to answer this question by predicting cloud droplet number concentration N c from aerosol number concentration N a and ambient conditions using a data-driven framework. We use aerosol properties, vertical velocity fluctuations, and meteorological states from the ACTIVATE field observations (2020–2022) as predictors to estimate N c . We show that the campaign-wide N c can be successfully predicted using machine learning models despite the strongly nonlinear and multi-scale nature of ACI. However, the observation-trained machine learning model fails to predict N c in individual cases while it successfully predicts N c of randomly selected data points that cover a broad spatiotemporal scale. This suggests that, within a data-driven framework, the N c prediction is uncertain at fine spatiotemporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Age of Evapotranspiration: Lower‐Bound Constraints From Distributed Water Fluxes Across the Continental United States

Abstract Unlike streamflow, which can be sampled in aggregate at the catchment outlet, evapotranspiration (ET) is spatially dispersed, challenging large‐scale age estimation. Here, we introduce an approach for constraining the age of ET via mass balance and present the minimum flux‐weighted age of ET across the continental United States using distributed, publicly available water flux data sets. The lower‐bound constraint on ET age can be calculated by assuming that ET is preferentially sourced from the most recent precipitation through a last‐in, first‐out algorithm. From 2012 to 2017, ET was at least several months old across large areas of the western continental United States, including in Mediterranean and (semi‐)arid climate zones and shrub and evergreen needleleaf plant communities. The primary limitation of this approach is that it provides only a minimum flux‐weighted average age to satisfy the mass balance of outgoing fluxes; true ET fluxes are composed of distributions of ages and may be composed of much older water. The primary advantage of the approach is that flux time series of precipitation and ET are sufficient to constrain ET age, and model parameterization is unnecessary. ET ages can be used to validate tracer‐aided and modeling approaches and inform studies of biogeochemistry, water‐rock interactions, and plant water sourcing under drought.

Hahm, W. J.↗

Correlated Noise Estimation with Quantum Sensor Networks

We address the metrological problem of estimating collective stochastic properties imprinted on a network of quantum sensors. Canonical examples include center-of-mass quadrature fluctuations in a system of bosonic modes and correlated dephasing in an ensemble of qubits (e.g., spins), bosons, or fermions. We develop a theoretical framework to determine the limits of correlated (weak) noise estimation with quantum sensor networks and reveal the requirements for entanglement advantage. Notably, an advantage emerges from the synergistic interplay between quantum correlations of the sensors and “classical” correlations of the noises. Here, we determine optimal entangled probe states and identify a sensing protocol—reminiscent of a many-body echo—that achieves the fundamental limits of measurement sensitivity for a broad class of problems, unveiling a route toward entanglement-enhanced metrology of correlated many-body phenomena.

Quantum metrology↗

Datasets for characterizing extreme events relevant to hydrologic design over the conterminous United States

Despite the close linkage between extreme floods and snowmelt, particularly through rain-on-snow (ROS), hydrologic infrastructure is mostly designed based on standard precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (PREC-IDF) that neglect snow processes in runoff generation. For snow-dominated regions, such simplification could result in substantial errors in estimating extreme events and infrastructure design risk. To address this long-standing problem, we applied the Next Generation IDF (NG-IDF) technique to estimate design basis extreme events for different durations and return periods in the conterminous United States (CONUS) to distinctly represent the contribution of rain, snowmelt, and ROS events to the amount of water reaching the land surface. A suite of datasets were developed to characterize the magnitude, trend, seasonality, and dominant mechanism of extreme events for over 200,000 locations. Infrastructure design risk associated with the use of PREC-IDF was estimated. Accuracy of the model simulations used in the analyses was confirmed by long-term snow data at over 200 Snowpack Telemetry stations. The presented spatially continuous datasets are readily usable and instrumental for supporting site-specific infrastructure design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Electric Transit Bus Depots in the United States

Transit buses operate primarily in dense urban areas, where nearby populations face increased exposure to fine particulates, nitrogen oxides, and other harmful pollutants. Electrifying transit buses presents a clear opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve urban air quality. However, widespread adoption may pose significant energy and infrastructure challenges, which can be mitigated through proactive planning and investment. This report presents a robust modeling framework and an initial estimation of the hourly electricity demand at transit bus depots across the United States. The resulting depot-level dataset, available at data.nrel.gov/submissions/282, provides valuable insights for infrastructure planning and electricity demand forecasting, supporting the scalable electrification of transit bus fleets nationwide.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Physics-Informed Deep Neural Networks for Learning Parameters and Constitutive Relationships in Subsurface Flow Problems

In this paper, we present a physics informed deep neural network (DNN) method for estimating parameters and unknown physics (constitutive relationships) in partial differential equation (PDE) models. We use PDEs in addition to measurements to train DNNs to approximate unknown parameters and constitutive relationships as well as states. The proposed approach increases the accuracy of DNN approximations of partially known functions when a limited number of measurements is available and allows for training DNNs when no direct measurements of the functions of interest are available. We employ physics informed DNNs to estimate the unknown space-dependent diffusion coefficient in a linear diffusion equation and an unknown constitutive relationship in a non-linear diffusion equation. For the parameter estimation problem, we assume that partial measurements of the coefficient and states are available and demonstrate that under these conditions, the proposed method is more accurate than state-of-the-art methods. For the non-linear diffusion PDE model with a fully unknown constitutive relationship (i.e., no measurements of constitutive relationship are available), the physics informed DNN method can accurately estimate the non-linear constitutive relationship based on state measurements only. Finally, we demonstrate that the proposed method remains accurate in the presence of measurement noise.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Globally optimal interferometry with lossy twin Fock probes

Parity or quadratic spin (e.g., J z 2 ) readouts of a Mach–Zehnder (MZ) interferometer probed with a twin Fock (TF) input state allow saturating the optimal sensitivity attainable among all mode-separable states with a fixed total number of particles but only when the interferometer phase θ is near zero. When more general Dicke state probes are used, the parity readout saturates the quantum Fisher information (QFI) at θ = 0, whereas better-than-standard quantum limit performance of the J z 2 readout is restricted to an o ( N ) occupation imbalance. We show that a method of moments readout of two quadratic spin observables J z 2 and J + 2 + J − 2 is globally optimal for Dicke state probes; i.e., the error saturates the QFI for all θ . In the lossy setting, we derive the time-inhomogeneous Markov process describing the effect of particle loss on TF states, showing that the method of moments readout of four at-most-quadratic spin observables is sufficient for globally optimal estimation of θ when two or more particles are lost. The analysis culminates in a numerical calculation of the QFI matrix for distributed MZ interferometry on the four-mode state | N 4 , N 4 , N 4 , N 4 〉 and its lossy counterparts, showing that an advantage for the estimation of any linear function of the local MZ phases θ 1 and θ 2 (compared to independent probing of the MZ phases by two copies of | N 4 , N 4 〉 ) appears when more than one particle is lost.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update

This report updates the 2024 Data Center Energy Usage Report (2024 Report) and estimates that data centers could account for 11.8% of total U.S. electricity by 2030. The estimate also includes a range of scenarios that indicate the energy use could be between 9.5 and 15.3% of total U.S. electricity use by 2030. In comparison, the 2024 Report estimate range was 6.7% to 12.0% of total U.S. electricity by 2028.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗