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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of PICA-NuSil at the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System (HyMETS)

Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) gained heritage during theStardust mission and is the baseline thermal protection system (TPS) material for missions to Mars. However, PICA is friable, so a thin layer of siloxane resin (NuSil) is applied to the surface of the heat shield to suppress the spread of particulate matter during cleanroom activities. Until recently, the thermochemical response of NuSil had not been accounted for in material response models. Therefore, a test campaign was executed at the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System (HyMETS) facility to investigate the material response of NuSil and provide crucial insight for model development. Finally, salient results from an experiment supported by the AsteroidThreat Assessment Project (ATAP) will be discussed, which probed the materialr esponse of the Tamdakht meteorite and notable analogs.

Brody K. Bessire↗

DOE OSTI2021

Powder spreading, densification, and part deformation in binder jetting additive manufacturing

Binder jetting additive manufacturing (AM) can print complex structures in economical and scalable manner. Binder jetting AM comprises of deposition and weak binding of particles, known as green part, at room temperature and subsequent binder removal and sintering densification at high temperatures. However, during the densification (i.e., sintering), the part significantly deforms due to volume shrinkage. The deformation during sintering is difficult to predict, which prevents the widespread application of this technology. In this research, powder spreading simulation using discrete element method (DEM) was performed first to capture local variations in powder bed configuration. Second, finite element method (FEM) with a phenomenological continuum constitutive model was used to predict part shrinkage during the sintering process. DEM simulation showed variations in packing density, particle segregation, formation of uneven powder bed surface, and shift in particle size distribution (PSD). The sintering simulation modeled part deformation with a reasonable accuracy of 3% for solid-state sintering and intermediate liquid phase sintering. A demonstration case with non-uniform initial packing density showed that inhomogeneous green part density and PSD should be accounted for prediction of part deformation in binder jetting AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advanced Laser-driven Plasma Accelerator Electron-beam Diagnostics with COTR Techniques

A significant advance in laser-driven plasma accelerator (LPA) electron-beam diagnostics has recently been demonstrated based on coherent optical transition radiation (COTR) imaging. We find COTR signal strengths from a microbunched subset of beam exiting the LPA to be several orders of magnitude higher than that of incoherent optical transition radiation (OTR). The transverse sizes are only a few microns as deduced from the point-spread-function-related lobe structure. In addition, the far-field COTR interferometric images obtained on the same shot provide beam-size limits plus divergence and pointing information at the sub-mrad level when compared to a modified analytical model. The integrated image intensities can be used to estimate the microbunching fraction and relatable to the LPA process. Initial results in a collaborative LPA experiment will be reported for electron beam energies of about 215 MeV. A revised configuration is proposed to record energy and ene rgy spread via COTR on the same shot with the interferometer.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Type II Supernova Energetics and Comparison of Light Curves to Shock-Cooling Models

During the first few days after explosion, Type II supernovae (SNe) are dominated by relatively simple physics. Theoretical predictions regarding early-time SN light curves in the ultraviolet (UV) and optical bands are thus quite robust. We present, for the first time, a sample of 57 R-band SN II light curves that are well-monitored during their rise, with greater than 5 detections during the first 10 days after discovery, and a well-constrained time of explosion to within 13 days. We show that the energy per unit mass (E/M) can be deduced to roughly a factor of five by comparing early-time optical data to the 2011 model of Rabinak Waxman, while the progenitor radius cannot be determined based on R-band data alone. We find that SN II explosion energies span a range of EM = (0.2-20) x 10(exp 51) erg/(10 M stellar mass), and have a mean energy per unit mass of E/ M = 0.85 x 10(exp 51) erg(10 stellar mass), corrected for Malmquist bias. Assuming a small spread in progenitor masses, this indicates a large intrinsic diversity in explosion energy. Moreover, E/M is positively correlated with the amount of Ni-56 produced in the explosion, as predicted by some recent models of core-collapse SNe. We further present several empirical correlations. The peak magnitude is correlated with the decline rate (Delta m(sub15), the decline rate is weakly correlated with the rise time, and the rise time is not significantly correlated with the peak magnitude. Faster declining SNe are more luminous and have longer rise times. This limits the possible power sources for such events.

supernovae: general↗

NASA NTRS2019

Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models

Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real‐world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near‐surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy‐induced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend.

T B Richardson↗

DOE OSTI2023

Capturing electronic decoherence in quantum-classical dynamics using the ring-polymer-surface-hopping–density-matrix approach

Simulations of coupled electronic and nuclear dynamics in molecules can be quite challenging due to the involved interplay of the many degrees of freedom. Because a full quantum treatment of both electrons and nuclei is computationally very demanding, it is generally restricted to model systems or rather small molecules and short timescales. Mixed quantum-classical dynamics methods such as Tully's fewest switches surface hopping (FSSH) can be used to overcome this limitation. However, FSSH is known to poorly describe electronic coherences and decoherence phenomena. Here, we present an approach that combines FSSH with ring-polymer molecular dynamics (RPMD) in a specific way that aims to alleviate the coherence problem. Termed the ring-polymer-surface-hopping–density-matrix approach, this method uses an electronic density-matrix formulation to calculate surface hopping rates. Additionally, this incorporates decoherence effects into FSSH in a natural way by taking into account the spatial spreading of the ring polymer that mimics the width of a nuclear wave packet in each RPMD trajectory. By applying our method to Tully's one-dimensional model system, we demonstrate that this method captures a crucial decoherence mechanism that is missing in FSSH. Furthermore, our method turns out to be superior at describing electronic coherences compared with earlier attempts at combining RPMD and FSSH.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Probabilistic Wake Vortex Lateral Transport Model Using Data from SFO and DEN

In a previous report, we considered the behavior of the lateral position of vortices as a function of time after vortex formation for Out of Ground Effects (OGE) data for aircraft landing at San Francisco International Airport (SFO). We quantified the spread in lateral position as a function of time and examined how predictable lateral position is under a variety of assumptions. The combination of spread and predictability allowed us to derive probability distribution functions (PDFs) for lateral position given observed crosswind (CW) velocities. In this study, we examine the portability of these PDFs with respect to other landing sites. To this end, we consider OGE data obtained by the Federal Aviation Administration for landings at Denver International Airport (DEN) between 04/05/2006 and 06/03/2006. We consider vortices from both B733 (Boeing 737 models 200-500) and B757 (Boeing 757) aircraft. The data set contains 635 B733 landings and 506 B757 landings. The glide slope altitude for these measurements was 280 m, determined by the average initial vortex observation adjusted for a 3-second delay in the initial observation. The comparable SFO altitude was 158 m. We note that the principal mechanism for lateral transport in the OGE regime is advection by the ambient wind. This implies that a simple crosswind correction may be effective in explaining much of the variation in the lateral transport data. In this study, we again consider the use of ASOS data and average Lidar crosswind data over the vortex altitude range to predict vortex location as a function of time.

Mellman, George R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Investigating seasonal ENSO forecast amplitude calibration for GEOS-S2S-2

The GEOS-S2S-2 is a global coupled model and assimilation system, encompassing many aspects of the Earth climate system. This project looked at seasonal (nine-month) ensemble forecasts, over the period from 1982 through the present. We explored and validated a forecast amplitude correction technique used by the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), of which GEOS is a member, for Niño3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly predictions. The method relies on deriving a set of correction factors based on the standard deviations of hindcast and observed SST anomalies. This algorithm was implemented at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and applied to the GEOS-S2S-2 Niño 3.4 hindcasts. In general, the correction reduced the forecast amplitude. This improved the quality of the forecasts when measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) of the ensemble mean forecast. RMSE decreased for most initialization months and forecast leads. The correction had a larger impact on seasons with strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events than neutral seasons. The effects of the correction on the ensemble characteristics were also examined, and a variation of the algorithm was proposed that preserves the ensemble spread. The outcome of this project is a tool that can be used to calibrate GEOS-S2S-2 ENSO forecasts and potentially improve the precision of multi-model El Niño outlooks.

ENSO↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the effects of climate change on the cross-scale epidemiological dynamics of a fungal plant pathogen

The potential for climate change to exacerbate the burden of human infectious diseases is increasingly recognized, but its effects on infectious diseases of plants have received less attention. Understanding the impacts of climate on the epidemiological dynamics of plant pathogens is imperative, as these organisms play central roles in natural ecosystems and also pose a serious threat to agricultural production and food security. We use the fungal ‘flax rust’ pathogen (Melampsora lini) and its subalpine wildflower host Lewis flax (Linum lewisii) to investigate how climate change might affect the dynamics of fungal plant pathogen epidemics using a combination of empirical and modeling approaches. Our results suggest that climate change will initially slow transmission at both the within- and between-host scales. However, moderate resurgences in disease spread are predicted as warming progresses, especially if the rate of greenhouse gas emissions continues to increase at its current pace. These findings represent an important step towards building a holistic understanding of climate effects on plant infectious disease that encompasses demographic, epidemiological, and evolutionary processes. A core result is that neglecting processes at any one scale of plant pathogen transmission may bias projections of climate effects, as climate drivers have variable and cascading impacts on processes underlying transmission that occur at different scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Intelligence to Detect, Characterise, and Defend against Influence Operations in the Information Environment

Social media has enabled a new era of manipulation in the information and cognitive domains. Deceptive content—misleading, falsified, and fabricated—is routinely created and spread in the modern social media environment with the intent to create confusion and widen political and social divides, and exploit the societal conflict exacerbated by these divides in the real-world (aka physical domain). Such disinformation campaigns demonstrate a threat to the integrity of economic, political, cultural, public health, and national security institutions around the world. In this work we overview our artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities to detect, describe, and defend against information operations on Twitter as an example social platform to understand the influence of misleading and falsified content diffusion and better enable those charged with defending against such manipulation to enable responsive parties to counter it. We first present novel linguistically-informed deep learning (DL) models for misinformation and disinformation detection, and present an in-depth linguistic analysis of psycho-linguistic markers across broad deception categories. We then demonstrate how our models perform in the multilingual and multimodal setting and categorize falsified and misleading content based on the intent to deceive. We also provide a large-scale analysis to describe user behavior and spread patterns while engaging with deceptive content and report novel findings about the immediate diffusion of deceptive content by characterizing the vulnerable sub-populations and their demographics, and explicitly measuring speed and scale of deception spread to uncover who shares deceptive content, how quickly, how much, and how evenly. In addition, we measure audience reactions to misinformation and disinformation at scale, distinguishing the reactions of users identified as bots versus humans. Finally, we take advantage of deep translation and generation models to create unique solutions for real-time defense against digital deception and discuss how to apply causal inference to prescribe and intervene into strategic communications jointly across information, cognitive, and physical domains.

artificial intelligence, deep learning, neural lan↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Water Balance Representation in Urban‐PLUMBER Land Surface Models

Abstract Urban Land Surface Models (ULSMs) simulate energy and water exchanges between the urban surface and atmosphere. However, earlier systematic ULSM comparison projects assessed the energy balance but ignored the water balance, which is coupled to the energy balance. Here, we analyze the water balance representation in 19 ULSMs participating in the Urban‐PLUMBER project using results for 20 sites spread across a range of climates and urban form characteristics. As observations for most water fluxes are unavailable, we examine the water balance closure, flux timing, and magnitude with a score derived from seven indicators expecting better scoring models to capture the latent heat flux more accurately. We find that the water budget is only closed in 57% of the model‐site combinations assuming closure when annual total incoming fluxes (precipitation and irrigation) fluxes are within 3% of the outgoing (all other) fluxes. Results show the timing is better captured than magnitude. No ULSM has passed all water balance indicators for any site. Models passing more indicators do not capture the latent heat flux more accurately refuting our hypothesis. While output reporting inconsistencies may have negatively affected model performance, our results indicate models could be improved by explicitly verifying water balance closure and revising runoff parameterizations. By expanding ULSM evaluation to the water balance and related to latent heat flux performance, we demonstrate the benefits of evaluating processes with direct feedback mechanisms to the processes of interest.

Jongen, H. J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

ADRPM-VII applied to the long-range acoustic detection problem

An acoustic detection range prediction model (ADRPM-VII) has been written for IBM PC/AT machines running on the MS-DOS operating system. The software allows the user to predict detection distances of ground combat vehicles and their associated targets when they are involved in quasi-military settings. The program can also calculate individual attenuation losses due to spherical spreading, atmospheric absorption, ground reflection and atmospheric refraction due to temperature and wind gradients while varying parameters effecting the source-receiver problem. The purpose here is to examine the strengths and limitations of ADRPM-VII by modeling the losses due to atmospheric refraction and ground absorption, commonly known as excess attenuation, when applied to the long range detection problem for distances greater than 3 kilometers.

Shalis, Edward↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hybrid predictive modeling approach simulated evapotranspiration and ecosystem respiration data

This dataset includes measured data used for developing hybrid-predictive-modeling (HPM) approach and simulated evapotranspiration and ecosystem respiration data across several Fluxnet sites, SNOTEL sites and East River locations (Chen et al., 2020 in review). Fluxnet sites considered in this study include: CA-OAS, CA-OBS, US-NR1, US-TON, US-VAR, US-SRM, US-WHS, US-WKG. Snotel sites Butte (ER-BT), Porphyry Creek (ER-PK) and Schofield Pass (ER-SP) are included as well 16 east river locations with different vegetation types denoted by evergreen forests (EF), deciduous forests (DF), riparian shrublands (RS) and meadow grassland (MS). This data package includes: 1) A summary spread sheet of the sites and acronyms for data variables. 2) Processed Fluxnet datasets that are obtained from Fluxnet.fluxdata.org with HPM estimated evapotranspiration (ET) and ecosystem respiration (RECO). Trained models and metrics for parameters for the Fluxnet sites were added in an update on November 2, 2020; 3) Processed SNOTEL datasets obtained from www.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/ and HPM estimated ET and RECO; 4) Weather data at east river locations obtained from DAYMET (daymet.ornl.gov) as well as HPM estimated ET and RECO. NDVI datasets are obtained from Landsat 5, 7 and 8 on Google Earth Engine platform. Detailed QA/QC and sampling methods of measured data are available at the original data source.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

Spatial modelling of total storm rainfall

The spatial structure of the depth of rainfall from a stationary storm event is investigated by using point process techniques. Cells are assumed to be stationary and to be distributed in space either independently according to a Poisson process, or with clustering according to a Neyman-Scott scheme. Total storm rainfall at the centre of each cell is a random variable and rainfall is distributed around the centre in a way specified by a spread function that may incorporate random parameters. The mean, variance and covariance structure of the precipitation depth at a point are obtained for different spread functions. For exponentially distributed centre depth and a spread function having quadratically exponential decay, the total storm depth at any point in the field is shown to have a gamma distribution. The probability of zero rainfall at a point is investigated, as is the stochastic variability of model parameters from storm to storm. Data from the Upper Rio Guaire basin in Venezuela are used in illustration.

Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Photon counting with intensified charge coupled device (ICCD) – II. Laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) spectral measurement

This study explores the application of photon counting (PC) to enhance the resolution of spectra acquired by an intensified charge-coupled device (ICCD) detector, with a focus on analytical atomic emission spectrometry using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) as a use-case example. It demonstrates that, for spectra obtained with the same spectrometer–ICCD system, PC provides higher spectral resolution compared to conventional analog detector readout. This enhancement is particularly evident in the line wings of spectral peaks, facilitating better discrimination of isotopic peaks in the measured spectra. Although PC does not improve the resolution of an optical spectrometer directly, it rectifies the resolution lost caused by signal spreading in conventional ICCD analog measurement. However, similar to other counting techniques, excessive photons compromise detector linearity due to signal pileup. A correction model is proposed to mitigate the pileup effect, resulting in improved linearity and dynamic range in PC measurements. Additionally, the study reveals unexpected periodic structures in the flatfield image of the ICCD, which cause non-uniform detector gain in conventional analog as well as PC measurement modes and must be addressed for high-precision measurements.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

A data-driven perspective on the colours of metal–organic frameworks

Colour is at the core of chemistry and has been fascinating humans since ancient times. It is also a key descriptor of optoelectronic properties of materials and is often used to assess the success of a synthesis. However, predicting the colour of a material based on its structure is challenging. In this work, we leverage subjective and categorical human assignments of colours to build a model that can predict the colour of compounds on a continuous scale. In the process of developing the model, we also uncover inadequacies in current reporting mechanisms. For example, we show that the majority of colour assignments are subject to perceptive spread that would not comply with common printing standards. To remedy this, we suggest and implement an alternative way of reporting colour—and chemical data in general. All data is captured in an objective, and standardised, form in an electronic lab notebook and subsequently automatically exported to a repository in open formats, from where it can be interactively explored by other researchers. We envision this to be key for a data-driven approach to chemical research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Superdiffusion from Nonabelian Symmetries in Nearly Integrable Systems

The Heisenberg spin chain is a canonical integrable model. As such, it features stable ballistically propagating quasiparticles, but spin transport is subballistic at any nonzero temperature: An initially localized spin fluctuation spreads in time t to a width t 2/3 . This exponent as well as the functional form of the dynamical spin correlation function suggest that spin transport is in the Kardar–Parisi–Zhang (KPZ) universality class. However, the full counting statistics of magnetization is manifestly incompatible with KPZ scaling. A simple two-mode hydrodynamic description, derivable from microscopic principles, captures both the KPZ scaling of the correlation function and the coarse features of the full counting statistics, but remains to be numerically validated. These results generalize to any integrable spin chain invariant under a continuous nonabelian symmetry and are surprisingly robust against moderately strong integrability-breaking perturbations that respect the nonabelian symmetry.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

OPTIMIZATION OF COOLING DISTRIBUTION OF THE EIC SHC COOLER ERL

The Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) Hadron Storage Ring (HSR) will use strong hadron cooling to maintain the beam brightness and high luminosity during long collision ex?periments. An Energy Recovery Linac is used to deliver the high-current high-brightness electron beam for cooling. For the best cooling effect, the electron beam requires low emittance, small energy spread, and uniform longitudinal distribution. In this work, we simulate and optimize the longitudinal laser-beam distribution shaping at the photo?cathode, modeling space charge forces accurately. Machine parameters such as RF cavity phases are optimized in con?junction with the beam distribution using a genetic optimizer. We demonstrate improvement of the cooling distribution in key parameters.

Wang, N.↗