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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts

In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-Solar Ensemble System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by taking into account the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes such as reliability and statistical consistency.

analog ensemble↗

Effect of Buoyancy on the Perfomance of Solar Air Collectors with Different Structures

In order to study the effect of buoyancy on the performance of solar air collector, the theoretical analysis and experimental tests of four solar air collectors with different structures under natural convection and mixed convection are carried out. The results show that the air temperature rise of the protrusion-corrugated plate air collector is the highest in the natural convection, which is 9.17 Chigher than that of the flat plate collector, and the air outlet velocity is 0.19 m/s, increasing by 16.88% than that of the flat plate collector. Observing the effects on the heat transfer performance of mixed convection, it can be found, in addition to the protrusion-corrugated plate air collector, the buoyancy plays a positive role on the other three solar air collectors in the upward flow, while the buoyancy plays a negative role on the other three solar air collectors in the downward flow, and the enhanced degree of the buoyancy to the corrugated plate air collector is the largest, while the enhancement degree of the flat plate collector is the least.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE MAGNETIC HELICITY SIGNATURE OF THE SOLAR WIND TURBULENCE AT 1 AU

The absolute value of the magnetic helicity spectrum of the solar wind turbulence often has a peak at kinetic scales. This helicity signature is important for understanding the mechanism of the turbulent cascade. In this paper, a statistical analysis of the magnetic helicity is performed. For this purpose, a database of the solar wind intervals with the helicity signature was assembled using Wind spacecraft magnetic and plasma data. New statistically significant correlations between the magnetic helicity and the properties of the background plasma are found. The position of the signature within the spectrum depends on the proton gyroscale and the proton inertial scale. Possible mechanisms responsible for the observed trends are discussed. The helicity peak is interpreted as a result of two competing processes, one of which generates the helicity and the other one eliminates it.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Effect of Grain Boundaries on the Performance of Thin-Film-Based Polycrystalline Silicon Solar Cells: A Numerical Modeling

Solar cells/photovoltaic, a renewable energy source, is appraised to be the most effective alternative to the conventional electrical energy generator. A cost-effective alternative of crystalline wafer-based solar cell is thin-film polycrystalline-based solar cell. This paper reports the numerical analysis of dependency of the solar cell parameters (i.e., efficiency, fill factor, open-circuit voltage and short-circuit current density) on grain size for thin-film-based polycrystalline silicon (Si) solar cells. A minority carrier lifetime model is proposed to do a correlation between the grains, grain boundaries and lifetime for thin-film-based polycrystalline Si solar cells in MATLAB environment. As observed, the increment in the grain size diameter results in increase in minority carrier lifetime in polycrystalline Si thin film. A non-equivalent series resistance double-diode model is used to find the dark as well as light (AM1.5) current–voltage (I-V) characteristics for thin-film-based polycrystalline Si solar cells. To optimize the effectiveness of the proposed model, a successive approximation method is used and the corresponding fitting parameters are obtained. The model is validated with the experimentally obtained results reported elsewhere. The experimentally reported solar cell parameters can be found using the proposed model described here.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Review of physics underlying recent improvements in silicon solar-cell performance

This paper provides a unifying view of the physics of silicon solar cells, and uses it as a basis for explaining how recent improvements in the performance of these cells have been achieved. The unification is facilitated by a region-by-region analysis of the solar cell, which is also used to compare several recently proposed cell structures.

Lindholm, F. A.↗

WIYN OPEN CLUSTER STUDY. LVII. OXYGEN ABUNDANCES OF SOLAR-TYPE DWARFS IN THE HYADES AND NGC 752

Oxygen has been proposed to be a superior tracer, compared to iron, for studying galactic chemical evolution. In the context of improving our understanding of the evolution of Galactic oxygen using open clusters, we present a spectroscopic analysis of oxygen and iron abundances in the 650 Myr old Hyades cluster and in the 1.45 Gyr old cluster NGC 752, using high-dispersion 7774 Å O I triplet region spectra of dwarfs in these clusters acquired with the Hydra MOS on the WIYN 3.5 m telescope. Motivated by recent improvements in analysis of the triplet, we use a strictly differential analysis in solar-type stars to obtain reliable O abundances. Using stars whose radial velocities and spectral cross-correlation analyses are consistent with single-star membership, we report Hyades cluster averages of [O/H] = 0.195 ± 0.010 and [Fe/H] = 0.130 ± 0.009 based on 22 stars, and NGC 752 cluster averages of [O/H] = –0.077 ± 0.02 and [Fe/H] = –0.063 ± 0.013 based on 36 stars (where the errors are σ{sub μ}; we discuss possible additional systematic errors). These cluster abundance averages are in very good agreement with most previous determinations. Whereas the [O/H] cluster averages utilize only stars found in the ''prime'' T {sub eff} range straddling the solar T {sub eff}, the [Fe/H] cluster averages come from stars exhibiting a flat [Fe/H]-T {sub eff} relation of over 1000 K for the Hyades and nearly 2000 K for NGC 752. Previous studies of open clusters younger than NGC 752 have reported oxygen triplet over abundances in cool dwarfs, as compared to oxygen abundances of the prime-T {sub eff} range. We report that NGC 752 also shows such overabundances, at a higher level than the Hyades overabundances, and thus contradicts the idea of a decline of such overabundances with increasing age. We discuss evidence for and against correlations of the oxygen overabundances with rotation, X-ray luminosity, chromospheric activity, and metallicity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

STELLAR MAGNETIC CYCLES IN THE SOLAR-LIKE STARS KEPLER-17 AND KEPLER-63

The stellar magnetic field plays a crucial role in the star internal mechanisms, as in the interactions with its environment. The study of starspots provides information about the stellar magnetic field and can characterize the cycle. Moreover, the analysis of solar-type stars is also useful to shed light onto the origin of the solar magnetic field. The objective of this work is to characterize the magnetic activity of stars. Here, we studied two solar-type stars, Kepler-17 and Kepler-63, using two methods to estimate the magnetic cycle length. The first one characterizes the spots (radius, intensity, and location) by fitting the small variations in the light curve of a star caused by the occultation of a spot during a planetary transit. This approach yields the number of spots present in the stellar surface and the flux deficit subtracted from the star by their presence during each transit. The second method estimates the activity from the excess in the residuals of the transit light curves. This excess is obtained by subtracting a spotless model transit from the light curve and then integrating all the residuals during the transit. The presence of long-term periodicity is estimated in both time series. With the first method, we obtained P {sub cycle} = 1.12 ± 0.16 year (Kepler-17) and P {sub cycle} = 1.27 ± 0.16 year (Kepler-63), and for the second approach the values are 1.35 ± 0.27 year and 1.27 ± 0.12 year, respectively. The results of both methods agree with each other and confirm their robustness.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A mass sensitivity analysis of lunar orbiting beam power systems

At NASA Lewis Research Center, the feasibility of beaming power from orbiting satellites to the surface of the moon was studied. Reference microwave and laser beam power concepts were found to be 1/3 to 1/6 the mass of surface solar systems. Further analysis was performed to determine the sensitivity of the reference concepts to technology performance levels and mission architecture scenarios, such as beaming to multiple surface sites and lunar rovers. Previous studies concluded that frequencies above 35 GHz for the microwave systems were not critical for reducing the main base mass; however, when multiple sites and rovers are considered, this may become necessary. In addition, for the laser system, the pointing accuracy of the satellites becomes a critical factor for rover applications. These issues and other important results of the parametric studies, are discussed.

Stavnes, Mark W.↗

Quasi-Static Time-Series PV Hosting Capacity Methodology and Metrics

Distributed photovoltaic systems (DPV) can cause adverse grid impacts, including voltage or thermal violations. The installed capacity at which violations first occur and above which would require system upgrades is called the hosting capacity. Current methods for determining hosting capacity tend to be conservative by either only considering infrequent worst-case snapshots in time and/or only capturing coarse time and spatial resolution. Additionally, current hosting capacity methods do not accurately capture the time-dependence making them unable to capture the behavior of voltage regulating equipment and of some advanced controls mitigations. This can trigger delays from unnecessary engineering analysis or deter solar installations in areas that are actually suitable. We propose a quasi-static-time-series (QSTS) based PV hosting capacity methodology to address these issues. With this approach, we conduct power flow analysis over the course of a full year, to capture time-varying parameters and control device actions explicitly. We show that this approach can more fully capture grid impacts of DPV than traditional methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

p{sup +}-doping analysis of laser fired contacts for silicon solar cells by Kelvin probe force microscopy

Local rear contacts for silicon passivated emitter and rear contact solar cells can be established by point-wise treating an Al layer with laser radiation and thereby establishing an electrical contact between Al and Si bulk through the dielectric passivation layer. In this laser fired contacts (LFC) process, Al can establish a few μm thick p{sup +}-doped Si region below the metal/Si interface and forms in this way a local back surface field which reduces carrier recombination at the contacts. In this work, the applicability of Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM) to the investigation of LFCs considering the p{sup +}-doping distribution is demonstrated. The method is based on atomic force microscopy and enables the evaluation of the lateral 2D Fermi-level characteristics at sub-micrometer resolution. The distribution of the electrical potential and therefore the local hole concentration in and around the laser fired region can be measured. KPFM is performed on mechanically polished cross-sections of p{sup +}-doped Si regions formed by the LFC process. The sample preparation is of great importance because the KPFM signal is very surface sensitive. Furthermore, the measurement is responsive to sample illumination and the height of the applied voltage between tip and sample. With other measurement techniques like micro-Raman spectroscopy, electrochemical capacitance-voltage, and energy dispersive X-ray analysis, a high local hole concentration in the range of 10{sup 19 }cm{sup −3} is demonstrated in the laser fired region. This provides, in combination with the high spatial resolution of the doping distribution measured by KPFM, a promising approach for microscopic understanding and further optimization of the LFC process.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NX Fuels H2 Shot Incubator Phase I (CRADA Final Report)

NX Fuels will work with NREL to perform Life-Cycle Analysis (LCA) and Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) for NX Fuels' solar H 2 system. TEA/LCA modeling developed early on will provide insight on the most critical parameters related to the green H 2 cost and environmental impacts and help us create the business case at scale. This project will advance the Nation’s decarbonization goals by demonstrating the economic feasibility of NX Fuels clean hydrogen production pathway and evaluate its impact on CO 2 emissions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Model-Based Integrated High Penetration Renewables Planning and Control Analysis

Increasing adoption of Solar Photovoltaic (PV) generation at the distribution level poses several changes for the reliable operation of electrical power distribution systems. The addition of a significant amount of PV to a distribution network can introduce a variety of operational problems, including steady-state overvoltages, reverse flows, voltage flicker and excessive controller movement among others. These adverse impacts can be mitigated through a variety of equipment upgrades which represent a cost to either the electric utility or the owner of the PV site. The study performed here aims to quantify the levels of PV generation which present operational problems on a distribution circuit and how those problems might be alleviated. The study performed here included 20 distribution feeders selected from Pepco Holdings, Inc. (PHI) service territory. These feeders are located in the states of Delaware, Maryland and New Jersey. A hosting capacity study was performed on each feeder to determine how much additional PV it could support in its current configuration. Several improvements were then performed on these circuits including phase balancing, capacitor redesign, reducing the voltage regulator set points, fixed power factor operation on the PV inverters and the installation of battery storage. After each of these improvements the hosting capacity of the circuit was reevaluated in order to determine how that particular improvement impacted the amount of PV that could be hosted by the circuit. Each of these improvements represents a real cost in terms of labor and equipment in order to be implemented. They are expected to provide a benefit in terms of the amount of additional PV generation which can be safely interconnected to the distribution feeder. A cost benefit analysis was performed in order to evaluate the expected costs of each feeder improvement and how each one was able to increase the PV hosting capacity of each feeder. It is hoped that these results can be utilized by other distribution utilities in order to understand how they can improve the hosting capacity of their feeders and facilitate the deployment of more PV generation at the distribution level. Admittedly other utility companies will most likely have different feeder architectures and differing labor and equipment costs so the realized cost benefit numbers may be significantly different.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Assessing the Solar Photovoltaic Potential in Puerto Rican Brownfields and Reservoirs: Analysis and Modeling [Slides]

This study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) evaluates the potential for solar photovoltaic (PV) development on brownfields and reservoirs in Puerto Rico. Redeveloping these sites offers significant benefits, such as expanding energy infrastructure, supporting environmental remediation, and enhancing community revitalization. The study identifies up to 3.3 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV capacity, including 213 megawatts (MW) on closed landfills, 1-2.5 GW on contaminated sites, 78 MW on decommissioned plants, 21-50 MW on transmission line rights-of-way, and 636 MW on waterbodies for floating PV. This research highlights the strategic importance of investments and regulatory support to achieve Puerto Rico's goal of 100% clean energy by 2050.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar heating and cooling technical data and systems analysis

The research activities described herein were concentrated on the areas of economics, heating and cooling systems, architectural design, materials characteristics, climatic conditions, educational information packages, and evaluation of solar energy systems and components.

Christensen, D. L.↗

SURVEYING THE INNER SOLAR SYSTEM WITH AN INFRARED SPACE TELESCOPE

We present an analysis of surveying the inner solar system for objects that may pose some threat to Earth. Most of the analysis is based on understanding the capability provided by Sentinel, a concept for an infrared space-based telescope placed in a heliocentric orbit near the distance of Venus. From this analysis, we show that (1) the size range being targeted can affect the survey design, (2) the orbit distribution of the target sample can affect the survey design, (3) minimum observational arc length during the survey is an important metric of survey performance, and (4) surveys must consider objects as small as D=15--30 m to meet the goal of identifying objects that have the potential to cause damage on Earth in the next 100 yr. Sentinel will be able to find 50% of all impactors larger than 40 m in a 6.5 yr survey. The Sentinel mission concept is shown to be as effective as any survey in finding objects bigger than D = 140 m but is more effective when applied to finding smaller objects on Earth-impacting orbits. Sentinel is also more effective at finding objects of interest for human exploration that benefit from lower propulsion requirements. To explore the interaction between space and ground search programs, we also study a case where Sentinel is combined with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and show the benefit of placing a space-based observatory in an orbit that reduces the overlap in search regions with a ground-based telescope. In this case, Sentinel+LSST can find more than 70% of the impactors larger than 40 m assuming a 6.5 yr lifetime for Sentinel and 10 yr for LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Energetic electrons in impulsive solar flares

A new analysis was made of a thermal flare model proposed by Brown, Melrose, and Spicer (1979) and Smith and Lilliequist (1979). They assumed the source of impulsive hard X-rays to be a plasma at a temperature of order 10 to the 8th power K, initially located at the apex of a coronal arch, and confined by ion-acoustic turbulence in a collisionless conduction front. Such a source would expand at approximately the ion-sound speed, C sub S = square root of (k T sub e/m sub i), until it filled the arch. Brown, Melrose, and Spicer and Smith and Brown (1980) argued that the source assumed in this model would not explain the simultaneous impulsive microwave emission. In contrast, the new results presented herein suggest that this model leads to the development of a quasi-Maxwellian distribution of electrons that explains both the hard X-ray and microwave emissions. This implies that the source sizes can be determined from observations of the optically-thick portions of microwave spectra and the temperatures obtained from associated hard X-ray observations. In this model, the burst emission would rise to a maximum in a time, t sub r, approximately equal to L/c sub s, where L is the half-length of the arch. New observations of these impulsive flare emissions were analyzed herein to test this prediction of the model. Observations made with the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft and the Bern Radio Observatory are in good agreement with the model.

Batchelor, D. A.↗

Type II and type III radio bursts and their correlation with solar energetic proton events

Using the Wind/WAVES radio observations from 2010 to 2013, we present an analysis of the 123 decametric–hectometric (DH) type II solar radio bursts during this period, the associated type III burst properties, and their correlation with solar energetic proton (SEP) properties determined from analysis of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) observations. We present a useful catalog of the type II burst, type III burst, Langmuir wave, and proton flux properties for these 123 events, which we employ to develop a statistical relationship between the radio properties and peak proton flux that can be used to forecast SEP events. We find that all SEP events with a peak >10 MeV flux above 15 protons cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} sr{sup −1} are associated with a type II burst and virtually all SEP events, 92%, are also associated with a type III radio burst. Based on a principal component analysis, the radio burst properties that are most highly correlated with the occurrence of gradual SEP events and account for the most variance in the radio properties are the type III burst intensity and duration. Further, a logistic regression analysis with the radio-derived principal component (dominated by the type III and type II radio burst intensity and type III duration) obtains SEP predictions approaching the human forecaster rates, with a false alarm rate of 22%, a probability of detection of 62%, and with 85% of the classifications correct. Therefore, type III radio bursts that occur along with a DH type II burst are shown to be an important diagnostic that can be used to forecast SEP events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ultrahigh resolution photographic films for X-ray/EUV/FUV astronomy

The quest for ultrahigh resolution full-disk images of the sun at soft X-ray/EUV/FUV wavelengths has increased the demand for photographic films with broad spectral sensitivity, high spatial resolution, and wide dynamic range. These requirements were made more stringent by the recent development of multilayer telescopes and coronagraphs capable of operating at normal incidence at soft X-ray/EUV wavelengths. Photographic films are the only detectors now available with the information storage capacity and dynamic range such as is required for recording images of the solar disk and corona simultaneously with sub arc second spatial resolution. During the Stanford/MSFC/LLNL Rocket X-Ray Spectroheliograph and Multi-Spectral Solar Telescope Array (MSSTA) programs, we utilized photographic films to obtain high resolution full-disk images of the sun at selected soft X-ray/EUV/FUV wavelengths. In order to calibrate our instrumentation for quantitative analysis of our solar data and to select the best emulsions and processing conditions for the MSSTA reflight, we recently tested several photographic films. These studies were carried out at the NIST SURF II synchrotron and the Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Laboratory. In this paper, we provide the results of those investigations.

Hoover, Richard B.↗