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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Predicting Field Efficiency of Round-Baling Operations in High-Yielding Biomass Crops

Model simulations for bioenergy harvest planning need to utilize equipment-capacity relationships for equipment operating under the high-yield conditions typical of a biomass crop. These performance assumptions have a direct bearing on the estimates of machine capacity, the number of machines required, and, therefore, the cost to fulfill the biorefinery plant demands for a given harvest window. Typically, two major issues in these models have been poorly understood: the available time required to complete the harvest operation (often called probability of workdays) and the capacity of the harvest equipment as impacted by yield. Simulations use annual yield estimates, which incorporate weather events, to demonstrate year-to-year effects. Some simulations also incorporate potential yield increases from genetically modified energy crops. There are limited field performance data for most current forage equipment used for harvesting high-yield biomass crops. Analysis shows that the impact of wrap/eject time for round balers resulted in a 50% reduction in achieved throughput capacity (Mg/h). After the maximum throughput is reached, the cost of the round bale operation (3.23 USD/Mg) is double that of the large-square baler (1.63 USD/Mg). The round baler achieved throughput capacity is 50% less (32.7 Mg/h compared to 71.0 Mg/h) than the large-square baler.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Modeling Assessment of Residential Air-to-Water Heat Pumps Coupled with Cooling Thermal Storage

This study explored the performance and operating cost viability of air-to-water heat pumps (AWHPs) coupled with thermal energy storage (TES) in efficient new residential construction. AWHPs are an emerging technology in this country, but offer promise in terms of high efficiency, fully contained and factory charged outdoor refrigeration system, and hydronic delivery capabilities, which facilitates zoning, ducts in conditioned space, and TES integration for summer load-shifting. Although this AWHP+TES strategy is not yet mainstream, the authors feel that in ten years as decarbonization efforts proceed and TOU rates become more common, strategies such as this will be more accessible. Validated EnergyPlus simulation models were developed based on detailed monitoring data collected over several years at Pacific Gas and Electric's CVRH laboratory test homes located in Stockton, California. One of the CVRH test homes (1,962 ft 2 two-story) had been testing various AWHP systems and configurations over the past six years. The validated model was then updated with high efficiency IECC ZERH envelope and component requirements for climate zones 1-5, including ducts in conditioned space thermal distribution. Simulations were completed for the 1,962 ft 2 home in each climate zone for a minimum efficiency ASHP, an AWHP coupled with a fan coil, and an AWHP coupled with TES sized to eliminate summer on-peak compressor operation. To maintain consistency in reporting energy use estimates, all cases were run with a similar indoor thermostat control strategy to pre-cool the house below the nominal 76 degrees Fahrenheit set point prior to the on-peak period and float slightly above the set point during the peak period. The AWHP+TES configuration was controlled to alternately condition the indoor space or to charge the TES tanks prior to the beginning of the on-peak. Three composite TOU rates were developed based on existing TOU rates across the U.S. to provide differing economic scenarios to evaluate customer bill impacts throughout the summer. Two of the TOU rates had short three-hour peak periods, while the third rate had a longer seven-hour duration peak period. AWHP modeling projections were based on the observed field performance of the Chiltrix CX34 variable speed unit. Other products on the market or entering the market in the near term would likely perform differently.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Understanding Dynamics and Thermodynamics of ENSO and Its Complexity Simulated by E3SM and Other Climate Models

Despite the seeming success of most state-of-the-art climate models in simulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), there is strong evidence that models achieve realistic levels of ENSO activity do so often for wrong reasons. This is owing to an often occurred near cancelation of large errors in terms of contributions to ENSO growth rate from coupled dynamic and thermodynamic feedback processes. Climate models remain deficient in simulating the observed ENSO’s spatial and temporal complexity that involves interplays of coupled dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks, interactions across multiple scales, nonlinear processes in the tropical atmosphere and ocean system, biases in mean sate and physical processes, and influences external to equatorial Pacific coupled ENSO dynamics. Our proposed research aims at advancing predictive and process-level understandings of ENSO simulated in E3SM and other climate models under current and future climate conditions with two main objectives: (i) better understanding the aforementioned broad range interactive processes and sources that control fundamental properties of ENSO in E3SM and CIMP6 outputs as well as in observational (reanalysis) data sets, using a hierarchical of coupled dynamical frameworks consisting of theoretical analysis, intermediate complexity modeling, and coupled dynamic diagnostics; (ii) to use this understanding to explore pathways towards improving E3SM’s capability of simulating ENSO and its complexity. More specifically, we will focus on four main thrusts of research: (1) ENSO’s dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks; (2) the across-scale interactions of ENSO with annual cycle and MJO/WWB/TIW (Madden Julian Oscillation/Westerly Wind Burst/Tropical Instability Wave) activity; (3) key nonlinear processes of ENSO involving atmospheric convective thresholds, nonlinear ocean dynamic heating, and thermocline outcropping; and (4) the impacts of climate mean-state biases/changes and perturbed physical processes on simulated ENSO and its complexity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Movement Models to Predict Low‐Altitude Flight of Soaring Birds Using Look‐Ahead Environmental Factors

Advances in fine-scale movement modeling of soaring birds can aid efforts to understand and resolve the impacts of anthropogenic activities on such birds. Soaring birds often rely on underlying terrain and low-altitude updrafts to govern their flights at rotor-swept altitudes (≤ 200 m above ground level), which puts them at risk of collision with wind turbines. We developed a data-driven Markov model at 1-s resolution that predicts the fine-scale flight behavior of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) as a function of ecological covariates at the current location as well as those within an eagle's line of sight. We only considered ecological covariates that are readily available in real-time (ground elevation and wind conditions). Latent factors (age, sex, species, behavioral intent, migratory status) were intentionally left out of the model. We calibrated the model using golden eagle telemetry data collected in two different ecoregions of the United States. Given a starting location, the calibrated model simulates multiple stochastic 3D paths to produce a time-explicit and spatially explicit risk map of turbine collisions. We discovered an empirical relation between the rate of change of heading and the orographic updraft conditions within an eagle's line of sight. Our model performed most effectively when predicting predominantly-soaring flights at rotor-swept altitudes during wind conditions in which turbines are likely to be operational. The calibrated model could be used in concert with automated eagle detection and turbine curtailment technologies. Specifically, once an eagle is detected by those systems, our model could then provide accurate predictions of turbines the eagle is likely to interact with in the near term.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Kinetic frustration by limited bond availability controls the LAT protein condensation phase transition on membranes

LAT is a membrane-linked scaffold protein that undergoes a phase transition to form a two-dimensional protein condensate on the membrane during T cell activation. Governed by tyrosine phosphorylation, LAT recruits various proteins that ultimately enable condensation through a percolation network of discrete and selective protein-protein interactions. Here, we describe detailed kinetic measurements of the phase transition, along with coarse-grained model simulations, that reveal that LAT condensation is kinetically frustrated by the availability of bonds to form the network. Unlike typical miscibility transitions in which compact domains may coexist at equilibrium, the LAT condensates are dynamically arrested in extended states, kinetically trapped out of equilibrium. Modeling identifies the structural basis for this kinetic arrest as the formation of spindle arrangements, favored by limited multivalent binding interactions along the flexible, intrinsically disordered LAT protein. These results reveal how local factors controlling the kinetics of LAT condensation enable formation of different, stable condensates, which may ultimately coexist within the cell.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Semi-Analytic Functions to Calculate the Deposition Coefficients for Ice Crystal Vapor Growth in Bin and Bulk Microphysical Models

Numerical cloud models require estimates of the vapor growth rate for ice crystals. Current bulk and bin microphysical parameterizations generally assume that vapor growth is diffusion limited, though some parameterizations include the influence of surface attachment kinetics through a constant deposition coefficient. A parameterization for variable deposition coefficients is provided herein. The parameterization is an explicit function of the ambient ice supersaturation and temperature, and an implicit function of crystal dimensions and pressure. The parameterization is valid for variable surface types including growth by dislocations and growth by step nucleation. Deposition coefficients are predicted for the two primary growth directions of crystals, allowing for the evolution of the primary habits. Comparisons with benchmark calculations of instantaneous mass growth indicate that the parameterization is accurate to within a relative error of 1%. Parcel model simulations using Lagrangian microphysics as a benchmark indicate that the bulk parameterization captures the evolution of mass mixing ratio and fall speed with typical relative errors of less than 10%, whereas the average axis lengths can have errors of up to 20%. The bin model produces greater accuracy with relative errors often less that 10%. The deposition coefficient parameterization can be used in any bulk and bin scheme, with low error, if an equivalent volume spherical radius is provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Incorporating Flexibility Effects into Metal–Organic Framework Adsorption Simulations Using Different Models

High-throughput calculations based on molecular simulations to predict the adsorption of molecules inside metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) have become a useful complement to experimental efforts to identify promising adsorbents for chemical separations and storage. For computational convenience, all existing efforts of this kind have relied on simulations in which the MOF is approximated as rigid. In this paper, we use extensive adsorption–relaxation simulations that fully include MOF flexibility effects to explore the validity of the rigid framework approximation. We also examine the accuracy of several approximate methods to incorporate framework flexibility that are more computationally efficient than adsorption–relaxation calculations. We first benchmark various models of MOF flexibility for four MOFs with well-established CO 2 experimental consensus isotherms. We then consider a range of adsorption properties, including Henry’s constants, nondilute loadings, and adsorption selectivity, for seven adsorbates in 15 MOFs randomly selected from the CoRE MOF database. Our results indicate that in many MOFs adsorption–relaxation simulations are necessary to make quantitative predictions of adsorption, particularly for adsorption at dilute concentrations, although more standard calculations based on rigid structures can provide useful information. Finally, we investigate whether a correlation exists between the elastic properties of empty MOFs and the importance of including framework flexibility in making accurate predictions of molecular adsorption. Our results did not identify a simple correlation of this type.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modelling the Sensitivity of Yukon River Biogeochemical Dynamics to Environmental and Chemical Drivers: Implications for Dissolved Organic Carbon

Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a critical biogeochemical component that transmits information from Arctic soils to the Arctic Ocean, significantly influencing carbon dynamics in this unique ecosystem. As DOC travels downstream, it undergoes transformations that alter its composition and fate. The Yukon River serves as an effective testbed for modelling these dynamics, offering sufficient scale to capture key biogeochemical processes while having a simpler hydrology than other major Arctic rivers, as well as long-term DOC observational data for model validation. To investigate DOC transformations during transit in the Yukon River, we adapted our Arctic Riverine Organic Macromolecular Model by applying regional-specific parameterisations. Our model simulates the transport and transformation of 15 organic macromolecules, including CDOM (coloured dissolved organic matter), proteins, polysaccharides, lipids, lignin phenols, and humic substances. Initial DOC concentrations were derived from observed soil organic carbon stocks in the surrounding watershed, while chemical transformations and hydrological dynamics were modelled along the river's course. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were conducted using a Monte Carlo approach under two experimental setups. Results revealed that variability in DOC and CDOM concentrations at the river mouth were predominantly driven by initial DOC concentration (~70% of variability explained) and dilution at confluence points (~10%). The refractory fraction of DOC explained 21%–88% of the variability in 14 macromolecular concentrations and ranked in the top five sensitive parameters for all outputs when a uniform parameter distribution was assumed. However, when a more likely variability was applied to this parameter, its influence on DOC and CDOM decreased. Given that refractory DOC accounts for ~80% of total DOC in Arctic Rivers, this suggests that most DOC resists degradation and retains its chemical composition during transport to the coastal environment. River velocity, which determines residence time, explained 8%–47% of the variability in protein, polysaccharide, lipid, pigments, and lignin phenols at the river mouth. In contrast, chemical turnover times contributed only 1%–5% to output variability. Our findings underscore the need for improved land-specific headwater observations, including seasonal soil moisture and lateral transport dynamics that control the initial tributary-specific DOC inputs. With accelerated permafrost thaw and increasing river discharge, extending our model to other Arctic River systems and seasons will enhance understanding of Arctic riverine carbon fluxes and their contributions to the Arctic Ocean.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A DFT-based kinetic Monte Carlo simulation of multiphase oxide-metal thin film growth

Functional thin films of nanoscale metal pillars in oxide or nitride matrices known as vertically aligned nanocomposite (VAN) have gained much interest owing to their unique strain-coupled and highly anisotropic properties. So far, the deposition of these films has been explored mostly experimentally. In this work, a density functional theory (DFT)-based kinetic Monte Carlo simulation model using Bortz–Kalos–Lebowitz algorithm was developed to understand the growth of VAN films deposited by pulsed laser technique on mismatching substrates. The model has been parameterized and applied to understand the kinetics of growth thin films consisting of Au pillars in CeO2 matrix deposited on SrTiO3 substrates. The effects of pulsed laser deposition (PLD) conditions including the pulse frequency, deposition flux, and substrate temperature were explored. The simulations indicate that the Au pillar size and shape exhibit significant dependence on the PLD conditions. Namely, increasing the temperature increases the average pillar size and lowers the pillar density, and vice versa. In addition, the simulations revealed that increasing the deposition rate results in lowering the average pillar size and increasing the density. Particularly, the DFT results suggest that Au pillar size can be tuned during the initial growth of the first monolayer due to the significantly low activation barrier. Our analysis showed that the relationship between the average pillar size and pillar density is influenced by the kinetics. Furthermore, autocorrelation analysis showed that pillars self-organize in quasi-ordered patterns at certain windows of the deposition conditions, which is attributed to the complex nature of the chemical interactions in the system, the kinetics, and the deposition parameters.

Physics↗

Novel Results Visualization for Dynamic PSA and New Modeling Features in EMRALD

The Event Modeling Risk Assessment Linked Diagram (EMRALD) tool, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), was designed to simplify the creation of dynamic models and support various research projects. One of the primary goals of EMRALD was to provide visual methods for modeling. EMRALD consists of two main components: a web-based user interface for model development and a solve engine for running model simulations. Over time, it has evolved to meet the diverse needs of its users. Initially, EMRALD's results were simple text outputs with final key state percentages and uncertainty bounds. However, because EMRALD utilizes a three-phase discrete event simulation and tracks the paths of each simulation run leading to a key state, there is significant potential to analyze large sets of path results data, including state paths, events, and timing. Visualizing this data meaningfully posed a challenge. To address this, a novel time-based Sankey diagram was developed. EMRALD exports results data in a format that can be opened in this Sankey viewer, allowing users to visualize paths, occurrences, events, and probability data for the entire simulation run in a single diagram. Moreover, when EMRALD was first created, there were limited tools capable of meeting its graphical requirements, many of which are no longer supported. In 2024, a new web-based interface was developed using modern graphing tools, enabling additional modeling features. This paper discusses the new dynamic PSA results visualization capability and the enhanced modeling tools available in EMRALD.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The 2025 Evaluation of Experimental Thermonuclear Reaction Rates (ETR25)

This work describes the formalism for estimating thermonuclear reaction rates for astrophysical applications, emphasizing modern statistical approaches such as Monte Carlo sampling and Bayesian models. We discuss related topics including the calculation of resonance energies from nuclear Q values, indirect estimates of particle partial widths, and matching of reaction rates at elevated temperatures to statistical model results. We have evaluated available experimental data on cross sections, resonance energies and strengths, partial widths, lifetimes, spin-parities, and spectroscopic factors. Based on these results, we have estimated numerical values of 78 experimental charged-particle thermonuclear reaction rates for target nuclei in the A = 2–40 mass region, for temperatures ranging from 1 MK to 10 GK. For each reaction, three rate values are provided: low, median, and high, corresponding to the 16th, 50th, and 84th percentiles, respectively, of the cumulative reaction rate probability density distribution. Additionally, we present the factor uncertainty of each rate at each temperature grid point. These results enable users to sample the reaction rate probability density in nucleosynthesis calculations, facilitating uncertainty estimates of nuclidic abundances. The rates presented here refer to their laboratory values. For use in stellar model simulations, these values need to be corrected for the effects of thermal excitations of the interacting nuclei. For each reaction, we include graphs that illustrate the fractional contributions to the overall reaction rate along with the associated uncertainty. These visuals are designed to assist both stellar modelers and nuclear experimentalists by identifying the primary sources of rate uncertain=^texttx);ty at specific stellar temperatures. A graphical comparison with earlier Monte Carlo rates is also provided.

Nuclear astrophysics↗

Mean Climate and Tropical Rainfall Variability in Aquaplanet Simulations Using the Model for Prediction Across Scales‐Atmosphere

Abstract Aquaplanet experiments are important tools for understanding and improving physical processes simulated by global models; yet, previous aquaplanet experiments largely differ in their representation of subseasonal tropical rainfall variability. This study presents results from aquaplanet experiments produced with the Model for Prediction Across Scales‐Atmosphere (MPAS‐A)—a community model specifically designed to study weather and climate in a common framework. The mean climate and tropical rainfall variability simulated by MPAS‐A with varying horizontal resolution were compared against results from a recent suite of aquaplanet experiments. This comparison shows that, regardless of horizontal resolution, MPAS‐A produces the expected mean climate of an aquaplanet framework with zonally symmetric but meridionally varying sea‐surface temperature. MPAS‐A, however, has a stronger signal of tropical rainfall variability driven by convectively coupled equatorial waves. Sensitivity experiments with different cumulus parameterizations, physics packages, and vertical grids consistently show the presence of those waves, especially equatorial Kelvin waves, in phase with lower‐tropospheric convergence. Other models do not capture such rainfall‐kinematics phasing. These results suggest that simulated tropical rainfall variability depends not only on the cumulus parameterization (as suggested by previous studies) but also on the coupling between physics and dynamics of climate and weather prediction models.

Rios‐Berrios, R.↗

Residential Building Energy Efficiency Field Studies: Low-Rise Multifamily

In recent years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has conducted a series of research studies to validate energy efficient building technologies in the field. Much of the work has focused on single-family construction, and some has also addressed commercial energy codes. The work detailed in this DOE-funded study (EE0007616) focuses on low-rise multifamily buildings (three stories or fewer above grade) in various regions of the United States, and reports on how state-level building codes are being implemented, both in terms of observed characteristics and also in terms of estimated energy impacts. Nearly 100 buildings across four states—Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington—were sampled, which represent a range of climate types from mild temperature to very cold continental. Both common entry and outdoor entry buildings were included, and a parallel research project evaluated envelope air tightness and current still-evolving air tightness testing methods. Finally, a set of structured interviews of building designers and other relevant professionals was carried to out to gain more insight into this market. To the greatest extent possible, the methodology developed under the project for low-rise multifamily buildings mirrored the approach established by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for single-family residential buildings (https://www.energy.gov/eere/buildings/downloads/residential-building-energy-code-field-study). This included the general approach to sampling, recruitment, and data collection, as well as data analysis and presentation. The range of permitting dates for the sites encompassed two energy code cycles in most regions. All states in the study had adopted a variation of the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for the structure of their state code. The low-rise multifamily occupancy presents a hybrid building type: most of the building’s conditioned floor area was covered by the residential chapter of the code while portions of the building (such as corridors and common spaces) fell under the commercial code chapter. The key items assessed in this work were: Building Shell—exterior wall insulation, ceiling insulation, foundation insulation, windows. Common Areas—HVAC and lighting. Living Units—lighting, ventilation. A few items were not assessed in detail, given their relative paucity in this occupancy type; these included duct leakage, pipe insulation, and hot water circulation controls. Building characteristics were collected via a combination of architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing plan reviews and field inspections, and entered into a spreadsheet-based tool that was later queried to build a database. Data went through quality control both upon arrival and via a later semi-automated review and assurance process. Most of the data are presented graphically so that the reader can quickly assess compliance with the applicable energy codes (both by state and by code year). As a final step, EnergyPlus™ simulations were created for all buildings in the study to estimate both the as-found energy use intensity (EUI) and the energy and CO 2 that could be saved if features that were found to not meet code minimums were brought up to code. The savings estimates were tabulated for each of the four states in the study. The research team found that the single-family approach was largely applicable to low-rise multifamily buildings. This applies to both the data collection and the prototype EUI analysis. Most of the occupied space is living units and falls under residential energy codes, and many characteristics use similar envelope construction and relatively straightforward mechanical systems and lighting. One of the most challenging aspects of this work was to build an effective spreadsheet-based data collection instrument that could allow efficient collection of both building plan and field data. The research team is of the view that other methods could be equally effective if the work is done carefully with diligent quality control. The primary findings for the work center around the thermal envelope and mechanical systems and lighting at the sites: For thermal envelope components, the majority of buildings met or were better than the prescriptive code.This suggests that building designers and builders are aware of code requirements. In some cases, surveyed buildings were designed to qualify for energy efficiency certification programs. These buildings made up at least 20% of sampled buildings in each state. Almost all buildings met mechanical system efficiency requirements (for both living units and common areas). In some cases, sites employed systems that were considerably more efficient than required by the applicable energy code. Dwelling units had a majority of high-efficacy lighting, often in excess of the state’s residential code requirements. While high-efficacy fixtures were also typical in common areas (corridors and stairwells), lighting power densities (LPDs) in these areas were sometimes higher than levels dictated by the applicable part of the state commercial energy code. The simulation models run on a series of low-rise multifamily prototypes, informed by a composite of the field data collected, calculated annual EUIs of between 20 and 50 kBtu/ft2-yr, with the range representing the effects of both building characteristics and building location (climate zone). A detailed process (based on simulations of prototype buildings) was used to estimate the amount of avoided energy use that would occur if 100% adherence to energy codes were attained. The results indicated modest savings are attainable for items such as window thermal performance and common area lighting. The result is overall only a modest potential for additional energy savings, averaging about 10% of EUI.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Control-Oriented Modeling of Lithium-Ion Batteries

Battery management systems (BMSs), which monitor and optimize performance while ensuring safety, require control-oriented models, i.e., models tailored to the design and implementation of estimation and control algorithms. Physics-based electrochemical models describe detailed battery phenomena, but are too computationally intensive for use in estimation and control applications. Single particle models (SPMs), which retain some of the physics of electrochemical models, are often used for control-oriented battery modeling since they are computationally efficient; however, they are only valid over very low frequency ranges and C-rates. Empirical equivalent circuit models (ECMs) are also used for control-oriented battery modeling since they are computationally efficient and can describe battery behavior over wide frequency ranges; however, they provide no physical understanding of the battery and, therefore, have limited applicability. Further, fractional order terms (e.g., Warburg impedances) are often employed, making the models unwieldy for use in the time domain. This work provides a control-oriented battery model that combines the benefits of SPM and ECM models, while overcoming their limitations. The proposed model incorporates some of the battery physics found in electrochemical models, can easily be used in both the time and frequency domains, and describes battery behavior over its entire frequency range. A linearized single particle model, which incorporates key electrochemical parameters, is used for modeling battery physics at very low frequencies. For low frequencies, integer-order linear systems are used to approximate diffusion physics described by Warburg impedances, and high frequency behavior is modeled by the double layer capacitance effect. The proposed battery model is more computationally efficient than full electrochemical models since it does not require the solution of PDEs, is accurate for a wider frequency range than the SPM considered in this paper, and does not suffer from the unwieldiness and limited applicability of empirical ECMs. Finally, the model is validated in the time and frequency domains via a comparison to pseudo-two-dimensional (P2D) model simulations and experimental data.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Mid-century climate change impacts on tornado-producing tropical cyclones

Tornadoes are a co-occurring extreme that can be produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). These tornadoes can exacerbate the loss of life and property damage caused by the TC from which they were spawned. It is uncertain how the severe weather environments of landfalling TCs may change in a future climate and how this could impact tornado activity from TCs. In this study, we investigated four TCs that made landfall in the U.S. and produced large tornado outbreaks. We performed four-member ensembles of convective-allowing (4-km resolution) regional climate model simulations representing each TC in the historical climate and a mid-twenty-first century future climate. To identify potentially tornadic storms, or TC-tornado (TCT) surrogates, we used thresholds for three-hourly maximum updraft helicity and radar reflectivity, as tornadoes are not resolved in the model. We found that the ensemble-mean number of TCT-surrogates increased substantially (56–299%) in the future, supported by increases in most-unstable convective available potential energy, surface-to-700-hPa bulk wind shear, and 0–1-km storm-relative helicity in the tornado-producing region of the TCs. On the other hand, future changes in most-unstable convective inhibition had minimal influence on future TCT-surrogates. This provides robust evidence that tornado activity from TCs may increase in the future. Furthermore, TCT-surrogate frequency between 00Z and 09Z increased for three of the four cases, suggesting enhanced tornado activity at night, when people are asleep and more likely to miss warnings. All of these factors indicate that TC-tornadoes may become more frequent and a greater hazard in the future, compounding impacts from future increases in TC winds and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pressure feedback control of electro-hydraulic actuators using fixed displacement hydraulic machines

This paper presents the development of a control strategy for Electro-Hydraulic Actuator (EHA) systems based on fixed displacement hydraulic machines. Although some previous studies on EHAs show benefits in terms of energy efficiency and regeneration capability compared to conventional hydraulic systems, few studies focus on the dynamic performance of EHAs. Unlike traditional valve-controlled systems, an EHA based on a fixed displacement pump typically relies on variation of the electric motor shaft speed to control the actuator velocity. This study shows that pressure feedback can be used to control the speed of the electric machine, thus achieving the required actuator/machine dynamic response. A simulation model is developed by including the EM, the hydraulic system, and the actuation system, which can give a realistic prediction of the EHA performance for a typical duty cycle. An open-circuit EHA previously proposed by the authors is used to validate the control strategy, and the simulation results show superior dynamic performance, exhibiting a reduction in response time and oscillatory behavior, compared to a feedforward EHA controller. Following the method presented in this study, it is possible to design a controller with a pressure feedback strategy for EHA systems with different size and actuation requirements

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Hydraulic Modeling of Induced and Propagated Fractures: Analysis of Flow and Pressure Data From Hydromechanical Experiments in the COSC-1 Deep Borehole in Crystalline Rock Near Åre, Sweden

To characterize the coupled hydromechanical behavior of rock fractures, the step-rate injection method for fracture in-situ properties (SIMFIP) was conducted with a specialized downhole probe developed by Guglielmi et.al. In June 2019, a field campaign was carried out near Åre, Sweden, where the SIMFIP probe was applied in the Collisional Orogeny in the Scandinavian Caledonides-1 scientific borehole to understand the dynamics of injection-induced fracture initiation, fracture opening, and shearing due to water injection-withdrawal in a borehole interval isolated by two packers. Three intervals were investigated at ~500 m depth: (a) an unfractured section (intact rock), (b) a section with non-conductive fractures, and (c) a section with hydraulically conductive fractures. Pressure, injection flow rate, and borehole wall displacement were simultaneously measured during the tests. In the present study, the geometry of the induced fracture and deformation of existing fractures at different time stages of the tests are determined based on a hydrologic model by using the measured pressure and flow data during each time stage of the experiment. A numerical model for the fluid flow within the fracture and the packed-off borehole interval is implemented within COMSOL Multiphysics. By matching model simulations with observed data for all three sections, estimates of the induced and propagated fractures' radius and aperture at successive time stages have been obtained in each case. We could also determine the non-linear relationship between fracture aperture and pressure for values above fracture opening pressures. The model results provide insights for the understanding of pressure-induced fracture initiation and propagation in crystalline rock.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Kinetic theory of particle-in-cell simulation plasma and the ensemble averaging technique

Abstract We derive the kinetic theory of fluctuations in physically and numerically stable particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of electrostatic plasmas. The starting point is the single-time correlation at the start of the simulation between the statistical fluctuations of the weighted densities of macroparticle centers in the plasma particle phase-space. The fluctuations are associated with different initial conditions, typically due to the random initial conditions (in velocity space) of the macroparticles/simulation plasma, assigned according to their initial distribution of probability. The single-time correlations at all time steps and in each spatial grid cell are then determined from the Laplace–Fourier transforms of the discretized Klimontovich-like equation for the macroparticles and Maxwell’s equations for the fields, as computed by modern PIC codes. We recover the expressions for the electrostatic field and the plasma particle density fluctuation autocorrelation spectra as well as the kinetic equations describing the average evolution of PIC-simulated plasma particles, first derived by Langdon (1970b Proc. 4th Conf. Numerical Simulation of Plasmas ) using a test macroparticle approach perturbing a discretized Vlasovian plasma and then averaging the obtained physical quantity over the initial macroparticle velocity distribution. We generalize and extend these results to the modern algorithms in PIC codes using arbitrary macroparticle weights. Analytical estimates of statistical fluctuation amplitudes are derived as a function of the plasma simulation parameters, using the central limit theorem in the limit of a large number of macroparticles per cell. The theory is then used to analyze the ensemble averaging technique of PIC simulations where statistical averages are performed over ensembles of PIC simulations, modeling the same plasma physics problem but using different statistical realizations of the initial distribution functions of the macroparticles. This method is illustrated by linear Landau damping uncovering (from noise, which is usually considered numerical) the physical fluctuations driven by a single small amplitude electrostatic wave perturbing a PIC simulation plasma in equilibrium.

fluctuations correlations↗