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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Gaussian Process Optimization of Sensitivity-Based Similarity Metrics between New Nuclear Applications and New/Existing Benchmarks

Confidently designing safe, new nuclear criticality experiments requires expert judgement, which could take years of experience. Sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis can be utilized by less experienced individuals to conservatively estimate uncertainties in important parameters, such as k eff , in newly proposed nuclear applications. This type of analysis relies on matching new nuclear applications with existing benchmark experiments. The Whisper-1.1 software package included in MCNP6.2 ®1 contains more than 1,100 International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks. These benchmarks however rarely match new nuclear applications. The number of benchmarks available to match a given set of materials or geometric configurations varies significantly. Furthermore, recently performed benchmark experiments may not have had enough time to be properly documented and published. Benchmarks are vital for determining the accuracy of nuclear data and can assist nuclear physics and evaluators in improving nuclear data libraries. Exhaustively exploring the parameter space using simulations with software such as MCNP is too computationally expensive. In this work, Gaussian process optimization was implemented to reduce the number of simulations needed for optimization over multiple parameters. This optimization scheme was designed to selectively generate new benchmarks with high sensitivity-based similarity metrics to user-defined nuclear applications. Two benchmark models of spherically nested shells containing plutonium, uranium, tantalum, and water were used in the optimization to match an application containing plutonium plates, stacked in a tantalum reflector, surrounded by water.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Resolved gravity waves in the tropical stratosphere: Impact of horizontal resolution and deep convection parametrization

Convectively generated gravity waves (CGGWs) are important for numerical weather prediction due to their effect on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the stratosphere. Here, using global ECMWF IFS simulations at TCo7999 (or 1.25 km), TCo2559 (or 3.9 km) and TCo1279 (or 7.8 km) horizontal resolutions, sensitivity of resolved CGGWs to the horizontal resolution and to the explicit versus parametrized representation of deep convection is elucidated during the westerly shear phase of the QBO. Parametrized deep convection is found to inhibit CGGWs, resulting in a twofold reduction in CGGW forcing. When deep convection is explicitly resolved, the total CGGW forcing is almost unchanged across the horizontal resolutions. However, the contribution of long and mesoscale CGGWs (with horizontal wavelengths 100 km ≤ $λ_h$ < $1,900$ km) to the total CGGW forcing decreases and the contribution of smaller-scale CGGWs (with $λ_h$ < $100$ km) increases as the horizontal resolution increases. At the maximum CGGW forcing altitude, at TCo7999 resolution 43% of the total CGGW forcing is due to long and mesoscale waves, whereas at TCo2559 and TCo1279 resolutions their contribution is 70% and 90%, respectively. While CGGW forcing from long and mesoscale waves is similar at TCo7999 resolution with explicit deep convection and at TCo1279 resolution with parametrized deep convection, CGGW forcing from these waves is artificially enhanced at TCo1279 and TCo2559 resolutions with explicit deep convection. This is due to the explicit deep convection being too strong and having too much variance for 100 km ≤ $λ_h$ < $1,900$ km. Therefore, parametrizations of deep convection and CGGWs (to account for forcing from waves with $λ_h$ < $100$ km) are required even at TCo2559 resolution. Additionally, resolved CGGW forcing at TCo7999 resolution is examined for the easterly shear phase of the QBO; similar to the westerly shear phase, the smaller-scale waves contribute 55% to the total CGGW forcing at the maximum CGGW forcing altitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recalibration of missing low-frequency variability and trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Multi-decadal trends in the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are under-represented by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), consistent with a lack of autocorrelation in their NAO index series. This study proposes and tests two simple “reddening” approaches for correcting this problem in simulated indices based on simple one parameter short-term (AR; Auto-Regressive order 1) and long-term (FD; Fractional-Difference) time series filters. Using CGCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the FD filter successfully improves the autocorrelation structure of the NAO, and in turn the simulation of extreme trends, while the AR filter is less successful. The 1963–1993 NAO trend is the maximum 31-year trend in the historical period. Raw CGCMs underestimate the likelihood of this trend by a factor of ten but this discrepancy is corrected after reddening. CMIP6 future projections show that long-term (2024–2094) NAO ensemble mean trends systematically increase with the magnitude of radiative forcing: -2.4 to 3.5 hPa/century for low-to-high forcing after reddening (more than double the range using raw output). The related likelihood of future maximum 31year trends comparable to 1963–1993 ranges from 3 to 7% whereas none of these CMIP6 projections simulate this without reddening. Near-term projections of the next 31 years (2024–2054) are less sensitive than long term trends to the future scenario, showing weak-to-no forced trend. However, reddening increases the ensemble range by 74% (to +/-1 standard deviation/decade), which could increase/decrease regional climate change signals in the Northern Hemisphere by magnitudes that are underestimated when using raw CGCM output.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Effects of cluster expansion on the locations of phase transition boundary as a first step to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework

Predicting phase diagrams from first principle calculations eliminates the need of tedious experimental trials and errors. Fully automating first principle phase diagram calculations without any sort of human intervention has been a long daunting task and troubling scientific communities for decades. This grand problem remains not fully resolved, largely due to the vastly high-dimensional parameter space associated with density functional theory, cluster expansion, lattice Monte Carlo, and the substantial uncertainty propagating through a set of complex simulations. As a first step to tackle this grand problem, we reported a first demonstration of how sensitive phase boundary locations can be to various cluster expansion fittings and input DFT training data. To the best knowledge of the authors, this study reported the first ever attempt to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework. In addition, a semi-automated phase transition detection algorithm has been devised in this paper to deal with the associated statistical errors and uncertainties from Monte Carlo method and its predecessor DFT calculations and cluster expansions. This algorithm has been applied in a classical cluster expansion Mg-Cd binary alloy system to detect phase transitions at various locations of phase diagram using different cluster expansions to demonstrate its predictive power and quantify uncertainties. The results suggested that using Chebyshev basis function shifted the transition locations toward the dilute solid solution phase and expanded the phase stability of concentrated ordered phases to wider composition range. The addition of perturbed defect configurations into training data set lowered the order-disorder transition temperature to be away from true transition temperature, suggesting the transition nature is indeed configurational disorder dominated rather than defect assisted. Finally, we found that the weighting has negligible effect on the transition locations, except for the case of using Chebyshev basis function to fit all non-weighted configurations that can be susceptible to Monte Carlo sampling hysteresis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Neutron diffraction discriminates between models for the nanoarchitecture of graphene sheets in glassy carbon

Glassy carbon is a chemically inert, biocompatible, disordered material with the graphene sheet as its basic building block. Structural characterisation techniques have so far been unable to provide definitive distinction between the many proposed models for its structure. Computer based simulation methods have made a step forward by predicting structure from interaction potentials, but the results are sensitive to the choice of the potential. Here we use the white neutron beam of the Spallation Neutron Source at Oak Ridge National Laboratory coupled with the SNAP time-of-flight diffractometer to sample the reciprocal space of glassy carbon and calculate accurate radial distribution functions. From the radial distribution information, we determine graphene sheet dimensions, registration, curvature, and assess defect content to rank the proposed structures in terms of their agreement with experimental data. In this work, we find that the recent models derived from empirical potentials give the best agreement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) Protocol

The atmospheric Green's function method is a technique for modeling the response of the atmosphere to changes in the spatial field of surface temperature. While early studies applied this method to changes in atmospheric circulation, it has also become an important tool to understand changes in radiative feedbacks due to evolving patterns of warming, a phenomenon called the “pattern effect.” To better study this method, this paper presents a protocol for creating atmospheric Green's functions to serve as the basis for a model intercomparison project, GFMIP. The protocol has been developed using a series of sensitivity tests performed with the HadAM3 atmosphere-only general circulation model, along with existing and new simulations from other models. Our preliminary results have uncovered nonlinearities in the response of the atmosphere to surface temperature changes, including an asymmetrical response to warming versus cooling patch perturbations, and a change in the dependence of the response on the magnitude and size of the patches. These nonlinearities suggest that the pattern effect may depend on the heterogeneity of warming as well as its location. These experiments have also revealed tradeoffs in experimental design between patch size, perturbation strength, and the length of control and patch simulations. The protocol chosen on the basis of these experiments balances scientific utility with the simulation time and setup required by the Green's function approach. Running these simulations will further our understanding of many aspects of atmospheric response, from the pattern effect and radiative feedbacks to changes in circulation, cloudiness, and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emulation With Uncertainty Quantification of Regional Sea‐Level Change Caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Projecting regional sea‐level change under various climate‐change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice‐mass change, which requires substantial computational cost if applied to probabilistic frameworks requiring thousands to millions of samples. Here we build emulators of regional sea‐level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are evaluated against a numerical sea‐level model applied to an ensemble of ice‐sheet model simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2100. We build a physics‐based emulator using a recent sensitivity kernel approach and compare it to machine learning based emulators (neural network and conditional variational autoencoder methods). In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well‐calibrated prediction intervals for regional sea‐level change via split‐conformal inference and linear regression, and show that Monte Carlo dropout does not yield well‐calibrated uncertainties in this instance. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency using both the physics‐based emulator and neural networks in comparison to the numerical model for the complete regional sea‐level solution. Overall, we find the physics‐based emulator modestly outperforms the machine learning emulators for this problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

First principles reaction discovery: from the Schrodinger equation to experimental prediction for methane pyrolysis

Our recent success in exploiting graphical processing units (GPUs) to accelerate quantum chemistry computations led to the development of the ab initio nanoreactor, a computational framework for automatic reaction discovery and kinetic model construction. In this work, we apply the ab initio nanoreactor to methane pyrolysis, from automatic reaction discovery to path refinement and kinetic modeling. Elementary reactions occurring during methane pyrolysis are revealed using GPU-accelerated ab initio molecular dynamics simulations. Subsequently, these reaction paths are refined at a higher level of theory with optimized reactant, product, and transition state geometries. Reaction rate coefficients are calculated by transition state theory based on the optimized reaction paths. The discovered reactions lead to a kinetic model with 53 species and 134 reactions, which is validated against experimental data and simulations using literature kinetic models. We highlight the advantage of leveraging local brute force and Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis approaches for efficient identification of important reactions. Both sensitivity approaches can further improve the accuracy of the methane pyrolysis kinetic model. The results in this work demonstrate the power of the ab initio nanoreactor framework for computationally affordable systematic reaction discovery and accurate kinetic modeling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Skyshine Calculations for a Large Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage Facility with SCALE 6.2.3

The SCALE code system developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory includes state-of-the-art capabilities for radiation source term and radiation transport simulations that can be used in numerous applications, including dose rate analyses of complex consolidated interim storage facilities (CISFs). A licensed CISF could be used to store tens of thousands of tonnes of spent nuclear fuel discharged from commercial power reactors using various cask and storage pad designs. A CISF design must comply with the regulatory requirements provided in 10 CFR Part 72, including requirements related to annual dose limits applicable to real individuals located beyond the area controlled by the licensee. Therefore, calculating a dose to the public is a necessary part of the licensing process for the construction of a CISF. These calculations are very challenging because of the complexity of the CISF design and the low magnitude of dose rate at large distances from the facility. This paper describes detailed far-field dose rate calculations performed for a proposed CISF using MAVRIC, the Monte Carlo radiation shielding sequence in SCALE 6.2.3, with automated variance reduction based on discrete ordinates calculations. The method presented in this paper uses a detailed Monte Carlo radiation transport simulation in one step from source to dose rate. A series of independent simulations was made using the complete site geometry (all casks present), but with only one cask containing radiation sources to obtain the dose rate maps produced by each storage cask. The CISF dose rate map was obtained by adding the dose rate maps produced by the independent individual cask simulations. Ample volumes of air and soil extending beyond the location of interest for dose rate calculation were included in the calculation model to properly simulate important radiation attenuation and scattering events that affect far-field dose rates. Furthermore, a comprehensive sensitivity study is included in this paper to illustrate the importance of selecting appropriate air volume, mass density, and composition for CISF skyshine dose rate calculations. Dry soil and soil containing water were analyzed to determine their effects on groundshine radiation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Understanding asymmetries using integrated simulations of capsule implosions in low gas-fill hohlraums at the National Ignition Facility

Current capsule implosions at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) using high-density-carbon ablators and laser energies close to 2 MJ have shown neutron yields in excess of 50 kJ. Improving on this performance requires understanding of the different degradation mechanisms. For many NIF implosions, nuclear diagnostic signatures have inferred residual hot-spot velocities that correlate with fuel areal density variations consistent with a low-order mode-1 asymmetry. A current working hypothesis attributes these asymmetries to a combination of beam to beam variations in the laser delivery and possibly coupling to target features, such as the diagnostic holes needed for x-ray imaging. Recently, a new source has been identified, thickness variation in the ablator shell. To gain better understanding and eventually mitigate the causes of <ρR> asymmetries, 3D integrated simulations using the actual delivered laser powers are needed. To capture the effect of the diagnostic holes (DHs) using direct numerical simulation would require significantly large computational resources. Instead, our 3D simulations make use of a subgrid model developed using highly-resolved 2D simulations that include several details of the DH engineering complexity. Simulations of NIF shots using hohlraums without DHs, to isolate the effect of beam-to-beam variations, reproduce fairly well the observed nuclear diagnostic signatures. Similarly, reasonable agreement between data and simulations is also obtained in the presence of diagnostic holes. To account for the remaining discrepancies a sensitivity study of ablator thickness variation showed that 1% thickness asymmetries are comparable in effect to 1% peak drive mode-1 asymmetries. Furthermore, this study identified sensitivity to variations in the imbedded doped layer (needed to shield the DT ice from the high energy x-rays generated in the hohlraum) thickness even when the inner and outer surface of the ablator are perfectly spherical.

radiation hydrodynamics↗

Machine learning visualization tool for exploring parameterized hydrodynamics

We are interested in the computational study of shock hydrodynamics, i.e. problems involving compressible solids, liquids, and gases that undergo large deformation. These problems are dynamic and nonlinear and can exhibit complex instabilities. Due to advances in high performance computing it is possible to parameterize a hydrodynamic problem and perform a computational study yielding $\mathscr{O} (TB)$ of simulation state data. We present an interactive machine learning tool that can be used to compress, browse, and interpolate these large simulation datasets. This tool allows computational scientists and researchers to quickly visualize 'what-if' situations, perform sensitivity analyses, and optimize complex hydrodynamic experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Photosynthetic capacity is reduced by warming but unaffected by elevated CO2 in seedlings of five boreal tree species

Abstract Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations fuel global warming, with boreal regions warming at a faster rate than many other areas. Boreal forests are an important component of the global carbon cycle, yet we have little data on photosynthetic responses of boreal trees to elevated CO2 (EC) and warming. We grew seedlings of 5 widespread North American boreal tree species (from Betula, Larix, Picea, and Pinus) under current (410 ppm) or elevated (750 ppm) CO2 and either ambient (+0 °C) or increased (+4 °C or +8 °C) temperature, then measured photosynthetic traits over a range of leaf temperatures. Our results were generally consistent across species: photosynthetic capacity (maximum rates of Rubisco carboxylation, Vcmax, and electron transport, Jmax) was unaffected by EC but decreased under +8 °C warming. Accordingly, net photosynthesis measured at the growth CO2 concentration (Agrowth) was reduced under warming and increased under EC. The thermal optimum for Agrowth (ToptA) increased by ∼1.8 °C with EC but increased with warming in only two species. In contrast, the activation energies and thermal optima for Vcmax and Jmax, which are used to estimate photosynthesis in Earth System Models, were unaffected by growth environment. There were a few interactions between growth, CO2, and warming. These results suggest increased photosynthesis of widespread boreal tree species under EC may be offset by future reductions in photosynthetic capacity related to warming. We also show that the temperature sensitivities of parameters used to estimate global photosynthesis in large-scale models are generally unaffected by simulated climate change in these species.

Plant Sciences↗

Gravitational Wave Signal for Quark Matter with Realistic Phase Transition

The cores of neutron stars (NSs) near the maximum mass can realize a transitional change to quark matter (QM). Gravitational waves from binary NS mergers are expected to convey information about the equation of state (EOS) sensitive to the QM transition. Here, in this work, we present the first results of gravitational wave simulation with the realistic EOS that is consistent with ab initio approaches of χ⁢EFT and pQCD and is assumed to go through smooth crossover. We compare them to results obtained with another EOS with a first-order hadron-quark phase transition. Our results suggest that early collapse to a black hole in the post-merger stage after NS merger robustly signifies softening of the EOS associated with the QM onset in the crossover scenario. The nature of the hadron-quark phase transition can be further constrained by the condition that electromagnetic counterparts should be energized by the material left outside the remnant black hole.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analysis of a Disturbance Event with Inverter-Based Resources Using EMT Simulations

Increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) necessitates newer methods of planning and analysis of disturbances. The existing phasor-domain transient stability (TS) analysis may not capture the dynamics of IBRs during fault events. Here, in this paper, electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations using high-fidelity detailed model of power grid and one of the affected photovoltaic (PV) plants during the Angeles Forest disturbance in 2018 are performed. In these simulations, the processes to develop EMT models of power grid from traditional phasor-domain TS data and PV plant from collected data are described. Thereafter, using these simulations, the response of the PV plant during the fault event in 2018 is replicated and a sensitivity analysis is performed. The sensitivity analysis consists of making changes to the components within the PV plant and in the power grid to evaluate the impact they have on the response observed by the PV plant during the fault event. This analysis provides an understanding of the components that impact the operation of a PV plant during fault events and provide guidance to system planners on the studies that need to be performed to maintain a reliable power grid as new IBR plants are integrated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modeling Diurnal and Annual Ethylene Generation from Solar-Driven Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction Devices

Integrated solar fuels devices for CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) are a promising technology class towards achieving net-negative carbon emissions. Designing integrated CO 2 R solar fuels devices requires careful co-design of electrochemical and photovoltaic components as well as consideration of the diurnal and seasonal effects of solar irradiance, temperature, and other meteorological factors expected for ‘on-sun’ deployment. Here, using a photovoltaic-electrochemical (PV-EC) platform, we developed a temperature and potential-dependent diurnal and annual model using experimental CO 2 R performance of Cu-based electrocatalysts, local meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRD), and modeled performance of commercial c-Si PVs. We simulated diurnal product outputs with and without the effects of ambient temperature to determine gaseous product temperature sensitivity. From these outputs, we observed seasonal variation in gaseous product generation, with up to two-fold increases in ethylene productivity between the Winter and Summer, analyzed the consequences of dynamic cloud coverage, and identified periods where device cooling/heating mechanisms could be implemented to maximize ethylene generation. Finally, we modeled the annual ethylene generation for a scaled 1 MW solar farm at three different locations (Beijing, CN; Sydney, AUS; Barstow, CA) to determine the consequences of local meteorological climates on PV-EC CO 2 R product output, recording a maximum ethylene output of 18.5 tonne/yr at Barstow. Overall, this model presents a critical tool for streamlining the translation of experimental solar-driven electrochemical research to real-world implementation.

Yap, Kyra M. K.↗

AMOC stability and diverging response to Arctic sea ice decline in two climate models

This study compares the impacts of Arctic sea ice decline on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in two configurations of the Community Earth System Model with different horizontal resolution. In a suite of model experiments, we impose radiative imbalance at the ice surface, replicating a loss of sea ice cover comparable to that observed during 1979–2014, and we find dramatic differences in the AMOC response between the two models. In the lower-resolution configuration, the AMOC weakens by about one-third over the first 100 years, approaching a new quasi-equilibrium. By contrast, in the higher-resolution configuration, the AMOC weakens by ~10% during the first 20–30 years followed by a full recovery driven by invigorated deep water formation in the Labrador Sea and adjacent regions. We investigate these differences using a diagnostic AMOC stability indicator, which reflects the AMOC freshwater transport in and out of the basin and hence the strength of the basin-scale salt-advection feedback. This indicator suggests that the AMOC in the lower-resolution model is less stable and more sensitive to surface perturbations, as confirmed by hosing experiments mimicking Arctic freshening due to sea ice decline. Differences between the models’ mean states, including the Atlantic Ocean mean surface freshwater fluxes, control the differences in AMOC stability. Our results demonstrate that the AMOC stability indicator is indeed useful for evaluating AMOC sensitivity to perturbations. We emphasize that, despite the differences in the long-term adjustment, both models simulate a multidecadal AMOC weakening caused by Arctic sea ice decline, relevant to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Contributions to the BeEST sterile neutrino search

Sterile neutrinos are hypothetical right-handed leptons that have been postulated as extensions to the Standard Model to help explain the origin of neutrino masses and the matter-antimatter asymmetry in the Universe. Sterile neutrinos with keV-scale masses are also a promising candidate for dark matter. LLNL and the Colorado School of Mines are developing an experiment to search for sterile neutrinos by measuring the \Beryllium-7 Electron capture in Superconducting Tunnel junctions (STJs)" (the \BeEST" Experiment). When 7 Be implanted into STJ radiation detectors decays by electron capture, the neutrino escapes and the energy of the recoiling 7 Li nucleus can be measured with high accuracy. Using conservation of energy and momentum, the mass of the emitted neutrino can then be found. Sterile keV neutrinos would generate additional peaks in the spectrum, and the experiment uses high-resolution STJs to observe such a potential signal. During my internship, I contributed to different aspects of the BeEST experiment. I designed a UHV setup for X-ray spectroscopy analysis with STJs. It will allow high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy of different materials to examine the broadening in the BeEST spectra, the origins of which are unknown but may be related to material effects inside the STJ detectors. The design accounts for the specific demands of the BeEST project, but provides a degree of flexibility that makes it useful for other potential STJ projects. Additionally, to test the accuracy of the electronics and data analysis routine, an arbitrary waveform generator (AWG) will be used to generate simulated spectra that contain sterile neutrino signals of a specified mass and admixture. For this I programmed an AWG to output random STJ signals whose amplitudes follow the appropriate user-de ned probability distribution. The AWG signals can be input into the 32-channel preamplifier to simulate any spectrum of interest and test the uniformity of the amplifier chain, as well as the sensitivity of the data analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Adjoint Waveform Tomography for Next Generation Seismic Analyses and Monitoring

The development of methods and capabilities to compute complete waveform simulations in three-dimensional (3D) Earth models along with adjoint methods for computing the fully 3D sensitivity kernels in the 2000's set the stage for new advances in seismic imaging. I believe that the full benefits of adjoint waveform tomography (AWT) are not yet fully realized and this will be an important direction for the future of seismic tomography.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗