Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Scenario optimization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Investigating capacity credit sensitivity to reliability metrics and computational methodologies

Assigning capacity value to renewable energy sources (RES) is a challenge faced in planning their integration with the grid. The difficulties stem from the natural characteristics of variability and intermittency of wind and solar sources. The capacity credit (CC) analysis evaluates the system’s actual power output compared with a constant capacity generator, i.e., conventional generator and determines an effective capacity to use for planning and operation. Herein this paper presents different factors that could affect the CC of a system. Two methods are proposed to determine the CC, namely equivalent firm capacity (EFC) and effective load carrying capability (ELCC). Since these methods are based on satisfying reliability criteria, daily loss of load expectation (LOLE), hourly loss of load (LOLH), and expected energy not served (EENS) have been employed as indices. To obtain the CC value, both methods apply two techniques: traditional and optimization. Genetic algorithm (GA) is the optimization approach used in this paper. Then, this work compares the two techniques and shows the superior performance of the optimization approach. Two hybrid systems, stand-alone (SA) and grid-connected (GC) modes, are proposed and used as case studies. The hybrid systems consist of photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine (WT), and battery energy storage system (BESS). In this work, three different scenarios are used to compare capacity credit: system as a whole, only wind, and no batteries. Finally, sensitivity analysis is carried out to examine the impact of varying the wind speed, solar irradiation, and load. It is demonstrated that the choice of reliability index plays an important role in determining the capacity credit and it is shown that EENS is a more comprehensive and consistent index of reliability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Li-ion battery design through microstructural optimization using generative AI

Lithium-ion batteries are used across various applications, necessitating tailored cell designs to enhance performance. Optimizing electrode manufacturing parameters is a key route to achieving this, as these parameters directly influence the microstructure and performance of the cells. However, linking process parameters to performance is complex, and experimental or modeling campaigns are often slow and expensive. This study introduces a fast computational optimization framework for electrode manufacturing parameters. A generative model, trained on a small dataset of microstructural images associated with different manufacturing parameters, efficiently generates representative microstructures for new parameters. This model is integrated into a Bayesian optimization loop that includes microstructure generation, characterization, and simulation, aiming to find optimal manufacturing parameters for a particular application. Significant improvement in the energy density of a 4680 cell is achieved through bespoke cell design, highlighting the importance of cell-scale normalization. The framework’s modularity allows its application to various advanced materials manufacturing scenarios.

batteries↗

Assessment of the polygeneration approach in wastewater treatment plants for enhanced energy efficiency and green hydrogen/ammonia production

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) offer opportunities to optimize resource utilization and enhance energy efficiency. Here, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of using the polygeneration approach in WWTPs to reduce grid energy dependence, optimize energy distribution, and utilize surplus energy for hydrogen (H 2 ) and ammonia (NH 3 ) production. Several models were employed, including photovoltaic (PV) cells, parabolic trough collectors (PTCs), steam methane reforming, and polymer electrolyte membranes, to assess the feasibility of this approach. Three scenarios were evaluated and compared: Scenario 1 (Baseline) represents the current situation, Scenario 2 maximizes the Net Present Value (NPV), and Scenario 3 minimizes NH 3 production costs. Real data from As-Samra WWTP in Jordan was used to accurately assess the feasibility of each scenario. The results show that Scenario 2 offers the highest profitability and efficiency, with a NPV of 87.48 million USD and an annual NH 3 production of 15,417 tons, reducing both grid dependency and biogas fuel consumption. Both Scenarios 2 and 3 demonstrate the ability to meet thermal demands efficiently while generating significant revenue from NH 3 production. Scenario 3, in particular, achieves competitive H 2 and NH 3 production costs. Environmentally, Scenario 2 significantly reduces annual greenhouse gas emissions by 12.66 kilotons of CO 2eq , with near-zero carbon intensity for thermal energy due to solar reliance. In conclusion, the polygeneration approach offers a promising pathway for WWTPs to achieve greater sustainability, economic gains, and reduced environmental impact, providing valuable insights for decision-makers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comprehensive AI-based System for Control, Sensor Estimation, and Fault Detection of Cascaded Multilevel Inverters

In this paper, an Artificial Intelligence-based (AI) system is proposed for an 11-level cascaded H-bridge multilevel inverter (MLI) with the aims of harmonic suppression and reliability enhancement. The system consists of three seamlessly integrated Neural Networks (NNs). First, a multilayer perceptron is used to generalize the optimal switching angles for selective harmonic elimination under non-equal DC voltages. Next, an autoencoder NN estimates the voltage sensor readings to address potential drifting. Finally, a perceptron NN detects inverter faults based solely on the output voltage of the MLI. Simulation scenarios were evaluated, and the results show that the proposed system provides a comprehensive solution for the robust operation of the MLI. The proposed solution is capable of minimizing the targeted harmonics orders with minimal impact on the fundamental voltage, even when the voltage sensor drifts. Furthermore, the inverter under fault conditions was successfully identified.

Rezende da Costa Reis Kimpara, Renata↗

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE-NE LWRS Integrated Program Plan - Physical Security Pathway

Domestic nuclear power is facing increased financial pressures from a variety of areas and there is pressure on these utilities to reduce their cost of operation. Currently, about 20%-30% of all on-site personnel are related to physical security. The LWRS Program recognized that R&D related to physical security could play a role in providing nuclear utilities technical and staffing efficiency options to meet their physical security commitments, but utilities often lack the technical basis or the ability to create the technical basis to realize or implement these efficiencies; towards this end, the LWRS Program created the Physical Security Pathway in September 2019. The pathway performs R&D to develop methods, tools, and technologies to optimize and modernize a nuclear power facility’s security posture. The pathway will: (1) conduct research on risk-informed techniques for physical security that account for a dynamic adversary; (2) apply advanced modeling and simulation tools to better inform physical-security scenarios and reduce uncertainties in force-on-force modeling; (3) assess benefits from proposed enhancements and novel mitigation strategies and explore changes to best practices, guides, or regulation to enable modernization; and (4) enhance and provide the technical basis for stakeholders to employ new security methods, tools, and technologies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Storage Futures Study: Economic Potential of Diurnal Storage in the U.S. Power Sector

We model the evolution of the U.S. electricity sector from 2020 through 2050 and find significant market potential (>125 GW) for diurnal energy storage across all 19 scenarios considered. Most of this storage has 4-6 hours of duration. We find that storage deployment is driven primarily by the combination of capacity value and energy time-shifting value, and that the combination of these value streams is needed for optimal storage deployment to be realized. We also find a strong correlation of PV penetration and storage market potential. Cost and performance metrics in this study focus on Li-ion batteries because the technology has more market maturity than other emerging technologies but results from this study can be generalized to any technologies that meet the cost and performance projections assumed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Optimization of silicon 8 cm x 8 cm wrapthrough Space Station cells for 'on orbit' operation

The optimization of Space Station cells for on-orbit performance is described. Design trades were performed in which back DAR coating thickness was traded against thermal absorptance and performance under front and back (albedo) illumination. Typical examples of modeled cell performance under different scenarios are given. Experimental illuminated output data under back illumination for specific DAR coating thicknesses are also given. Computer modeling of the solar array using TRASYS and SINDA programs also provide on-orbit thermal data and performance predictions. The overall backside response from albedo illumination was found to make a considerable contribution to the total array performance, particularly during the early stages of space station assembly when the arrays are feathered.

Lillington, D. R.↗

Ares-I-X Vehicle Preliminary Range Safety Malfunction Turn Analysis

Ares-I-X is the designation given to the flight test version of the Ares-I rocket (also known as the Crew Launch Vehicle - CLV) being developed by NASA. As part of the preliminary flight plan approval process for the test vehicle, a range safety malfunction turn analysis was performed to support the launch area risk assessment and vehicle destruct criteria development processes. Several vehicle failure scenarios were identified which could cause the vehicle trajectory to deviate from its normal flight path, and the effects of these failures were evaluated with an Ares-I-X 6 degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) digital simulation, using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories Version 2 (POST2) simulation framework. The Ares-I-X simulation analysis provides output files containing vehicle state information, which are used by other risk assessment and vehicle debris trajectory simulation tools to determine the risk to personnel and facilities in the vicinity of the launch area at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and to develop the vehicle destruct criteria used by the flight test range safety officer. The simulation analysis approach used for this study is described, including descriptions of the failure modes which were considered and the underlying assumptions and ground rules of the study, and preliminary results are presented, determined by analysis of the trajectory deviation of the failure cases, compared with the expected vehicle trajectory.

Beaty, James R.↗

Ares I-X Malfunction Turn Range Safety Analysis

Ares I-X was the designation given to the flight test version of the Ares I rocket which was developed by NASA (also known as the Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) component of the Constellation Program). The Ares I-X flight test vehicle achieved a successful flight test on October 28, 2009, from Pad LC-39B at Kennedy Space Center, Florida (KSC). As part of the flight plan approval for the test vehicle, a range safety malfunction turn analysis was performed to support the risk assessment and vehicle destruct criteria development processes. Several vehicle failure scenarios were identified which could have caused the vehicle trajectory to deviate from its normal flight path. The effects of these failures were evaluated with an Ares I-X 6 degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) digital simulation, using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories Version II (POST2) simulation tool. The Ares I-X simulation analysis provided output files containing vehicle trajectory state information. These were used by other risk assessment and vehicle debris trajectory simulation tools to determine the risk to personnel and facilities in the vicinity of the launch area at KSC, and to develop the vehicle destruct criteria used by the flight test range safety officer in the event of a flight test anomaly of the vehicle. The simulation analysis approach used for this study is described, including descriptions of the failure modes which were considered and the underlying assumptions and ground rules of the study.

Beaty, J. R.↗

Advanced Transmission Technologies – GETs and HPCs Session 2: Advanced Power Flow Control and Transmission Topology Optimization

The INL TADA GETs Cohort Session 2, held on November 7, 2025, conducted in collaboration with ScottMadden, focused on two core Advanced Transmission Technologies (ATTs): Advanced Power Flow Control (APFC) and Transmission Topology Optimization (TTO). These technologies are pivotal in enhancing grid flexibility, reliability, and cybersecurity resilience. APFC, particularly through modular FACTS devices like Modular Static Synchronous Series Compensators (M-SSSCs), enables dynamic voltage injection to reroute power flows. The session highlighted the deployment benefits of APFC, such as rapid installation, minimal civil works, and re-deployability. Regulatory drivers like FERC Order 2023 mandate the inclusion of Grid-Enhancing Technologies (GETs) in interconnection studies. Case studies from Central Hudson, CAISO, and National Grid (UK) demonstrated APFC’s effectiveness in congestion relief and cost savings. The session also addressed cybersecurity concerns, including firmware vulnerabilities, SCADA integration risks, and supply chain dependencies. Participants engaged in interactive exercises to rank cybersecurity and supply chain risks, emphasizing the need for robust digital assurance strategies. TTO involves software-based reconfiguration of transmission networks to optimize power flow without new infrastructure. The session showcased its operational value, with examples from SPP, PJM, and MISO showing significant congestion cost reductions. Cybersecurity vulnerabilities were discussed, particularly in API security and software supply chains, referencing incidents like SolarWinds and attacks on Danish utilities. Digital assurance exercises explored worst-case scenarios, attack paths, and mitigation responsibilities between vendors and utilities. Reliability challenges such as algorithm stability, vendor dependency, and operator trust were also examined. Cross-cutting themes emphasized the importance of digital assurance tools, including Software Bills of Materials (SBOMs) and hardware-in-loop testing. Human performance, training, and operational confidence were identified as critical enablers of technology adoption. The session concluded with a preview of Session 3, which will focus on High Performance Conductors (HPCs) and risk-based cybersecurity tools. Session 2 of 3.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

IoT-based retrofit information diffusion in future smart communities

Community-scale building retrofits are not merely scaled-up versions of single-building retrofits. They involve complex challenges, such as reconciling individual interests with collective goals and managing the dynamic interplay between buildings through mechanisms like power grids and social connections. Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity holds the potential to leverage these interplays to balance individual and collective interests effectively in smart communities. One critical aspect of this interplay is information diffusion, which shapes how retrofit decisions spread among neighbors, influencing individual choices and ultimately impacting community-level retrofit outcomes. In other words, IoT-based smart devices automatically push tailored retrofit notifications to homeowners, which completely changes the format of information diffusion in the future. To investigate this influence by such information diffusion, the study used CityBES to simulate energy performance for different retrofits and applied an information diffusion model to analyze how decisions spread in a networked community of 192 buildings. The diffusion process was modeled on a weighted, directed network, capturing the dynamics of information flow and decision-making across 16 scenarios. Individual retrofit benefits were evaluated through payback years, while community-level retrofit outcomes were assessed using greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The results demonstrate that easier information diffusion among neighbors encourages households to prioritize retrofit measures that align with the majority’s optimal choices, even at the expense of individual financial benefits. In this case, such collective prioritization enhanced community-level retrofit performance, increasing GHG emission reductions by up to 29.4 %. However, this improvement came with trade-offs, as the average payback period for households extended by approximately 1.74 years. These findings highlight the potential of IoT-based information diffusion in future smart communities to coordinate individual interests with collective goals, ultimately accelerating community-level building retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗

Shifting agricultural practices to produce sustainable, low carbon intensity feedstocks for biofuel production

The carbon intensity (CI) of biofuel's well-to-pump life cycle is calculated by life cycle analysis (LCA) to account for the energy/material inputs of the feedstock production and fuel conversion stages and the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during these stages. The LCA is used by the California Air Resources Board's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program to calculate CI and monetary credits are issued based on the difference between a given fuel's CI and a reference fuel's CI. Through the Tier 2 certification program under which individual fuel production facilities can submit their own CIs with their facility input data, the LCFS has driven innovative technologies to biofuel conversion facilities, resulting in substantial reductions in GHG emissions as compared to the baseline gasoline or diesel. A similar approach can be taken to allow feedstock petition in the LCFS so that lower-CI feedstock can be rewarded. Here we examined the potential for various agronomic practices to improve the GHG profiles of corn ethanol by performing feedstock-level CI analysis for the Midwestern United States. Our system boundary covers GHG emissions from the cradle-to-farm-gate activities (i.e. farm input manufacturing and feedstock production), along with the potential impacts of soil organic carbon change during feedstock production. We conducted scenario-based CI analysis of ethanol, coupled with regionalized inventory data, for various farming practices to manage corn fields, and identified key parameters affecting cradle-to-farm-gate GHG emissions. The results demonstrate large spatial variations in CI of ethanol due to farm input use and land management practices. In particular, adopting conservation tillage, reducing nitrogen fertilizer use, and implementing cover crops has the potential to reduce GHG emissions per unit corn produced when compared to a baseline scenario of corn–soybean rotation. This work shows a large potential emission offset opportunity by allowing feedstock producers a path to Tier 2 petitions that reward low-CI feedstocks and further reduce biofuels' CI. The prevalence of significant acreage that has not been optimized for CI suggests that policy changes that incentivize optimization of this parameter could provide significant additionality over current trends in farm efficiency and adoption of conservation practice.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Search for singly produced vectorlike top partners in multilepton final states with 139 fb −1 of 𝑝⁢𝑝 collision data at √𝑠 =13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for the single production of a vectorlike top partner (𝑇) with mass greater than 1 TeV decaying into a 𝑍 boson and a top quark is presented, using the full Run 2 dataset corresponding to 139 fb −1 of 𝑝⁢𝑝 collisions at √𝑠 =13 TeV, collected in 2015–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The targeted final state is characterized by the presence of a pair of electrons or muons with opposite-sign charges which form a 𝑍-boson candidate, as well as by the presence of 𝑏-tagged jets and forward jets. Events with exactly two or at least three leptons are categorized into two independently optimized analysis channels. No significant excess above the background expectation is observed and the results from the two channels are statistically combined to set exclusion limits at 95% confidence level on the masses and couplings of 𝑇. The results are interpreted in several benchmark scenarios to set limits on the mass and universal coupling strength (𝜅) of the vectorlike quark. For singlet 𝑇 quarks, 𝜅 values between 0.22 and 0.64 are excluded for masses between 1000 and 1975 GeV. For 𝑇 quarks in the doublet scenario, where the production cross section is much lower, 𝜅 values between 0.54 and 0.88 are excluded for masses between 1000 and 1425 GeV.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

X33 Reusable Launch Vehicle Control on Sliding Modes: Concepts for a Control System Development

Control of the X33 reusable launch vehicle is considered. The launch control problem consists of automatic tracking of the launch trajectory which is assumed to be optimally precalculated. It requires development of a reliable, robust control algorithm that can automatically adjust to some changes in mission specifications (mass of payload, target orbit) and the operating environment (atmospheric perturbations, interconnection perturbations from the other subsystems of the vehicle, thrust deficiencies, failure scenarios). One of the effective control strategies successfully applied in nonlinear systems is the Sliding Mode Control. The main advantage of the Sliding Mode Control is that the system's state response in the sliding surface remains insensitive to certain parameter variations, nonlinearities and disturbances. Employing the time scaling concept, a new two (three)-loop structure of the control system for the X33 launch vehicle was developed. Smoothed sliding mode controllers were designed to robustly enforce the given closed-loop dynamics. Simulations of the 3-DOF model of the X33 launch vehicle with the table-look-up models for Euler angle reference profiles and disturbance torque profiles showed a very accurate, robust tracking performance.

Shtessel, Yuri B.↗

Lebedev Scheme for Ultrasound Simulation in Composites

The growing use of composite materials for aerospace applications has resulted in a need for quantitative nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods appropriate for characterizing damage in composite components. NDE simulation tools, such as ultrasound models, can aid in enabling optimized inspection methods and establishing confidence in inspection capabilities. In this paper, a mathematical approach using the Lebedev Finite Difference (LFD) method is presented for ultrasonic wave simulation in composites. Boundary condition equations for implementing stress-free boundaries (necessary for simulation of NDE scenarios) are also presented. Quantitative comparisons between LFD guided wave ultrasound simulation results, experimental guided wave data, and dispersion curves are described. Additionally, stability tests are performed to establish the LFD code behavior in the presence of stress-free boundaries and low-symmetry anisotropy. Results show that LFD is an appropriate approach for simulating ultrasound in anisotropic composite materials and that the method is stable in the presence of low-symmetry anisotropy and stress-free boundaries. Studies presented in this paper include guided wave simulation in hexagonal, monoclinic, triclinic and layered composite laminates.

Guided wave↗

Spent nuclear fuel receipt rate analysis within an integrated waste management system (IWMS) architecture that includes consolidated storage

A key parameter in analyzing the performance of an integrated waste management system (IWMS) architecture for the disposition of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) is the SNF receipt rate from reactor and other custodian sites. Receipt rate in this paper means how much SNF is accepted per year for transport in the IWMS from such sites. Introducing one or more federal consolidated interim storage facilities (CISFs) into the IWMS architecture can potentially accelerate the receipt rate profile over time relative to system architectures without a CISF. This raises the question of what an optimal SNF receipt rate profile for an IWMS architecture might be in view of practical constraints and desired system performance attributes and associated metrics. This paper describes a sensitivity study on SNF receipt rates and the associated results for a selected set of IWMS scenarios aimed at informing near-term planning for interim storage capabilities and transportation assets. Two different strategies for CISF operation while awaiting availability of a disposal system to receive SNF are compared: one that relatively quickly fills an initial CISF and then idles the transportation system; and another that aims for more continuous use of transportation assets and receipt capabilities at the CISF. This study examines cost considerations and other factors, such as the timing of clearing reactor sites of SNF, efficient use of capital assets, and some other metrics that might be important to a CISF host community. Based on the analysis, an initial approach is presented that targets a continuous receipt strategy while maintaining the flexibility to step up receipt capabilities to a reasonable degree when needed and beneficial, within overall system constraints.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗