Experimental and Kinetic modeling of soot formation in counterflow flames of surrogate fuel components: n-dodecane and iso-dodecane
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Energy, Chemistry↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “SURROGATE MODELS”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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E3SM Atmosphere surrogate construction using machine learning and reduced order modeling methods.
Abstract not provided.
Chowdhary, Kamaljit↗
Surrogates for Finite Element Simulations Enabling Efficient Material Model Calibration
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Ricciardi, Denielle↗
Enabling Fast, High-Fidelity Time-Dependent NLTE Modeling via a Physics-Informed Deep Learning Surrogate
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Physics - Plasma physics↗
Analysis and Modeling of Explosive Fracturing Process in a Transparent Surrogate of Jointed Rock
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Geosciences↗
Kinetic modeling of soot formation in counterflow flames of surrogate fuel components
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Energy↗
Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19
Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387. Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.
Medical Informatics↗
Stress-constrained topology optimization of lattice-like structures using component-wise reduced order models
We report lattice-like structures can provide a combination of high stiffness with light weight that is useful in many applications, but a resolved finite element mesh of such structures results in a computationally expensive discretization. This computational expense may be particularly burdensome in many-query applications, such as optimization. We develop a stress-constrained topology optimization method for lattice-like structures that uses component-wise reduced order models as a cheap surrogate, providing accurate computation of stress fields while greatly reducing run time relative to a full order model. We demonstrate the ability of our method to produce large reductions in mass while respecting a constraint on the maximum stress in a pair of test problems. The ROM methodology provides a speedup of about 150x in forward solves compared to full order static condensation and provides a relative error of less than 5% in the relaxed stress.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Replicating HCCI-like autoignition behavior: What gasoline surrogate fidelity is needed?
This work seeks to characterize the fidelity needed in a gasoline surrogate with the intent to replicate the complex autoignition behavior exhibited within advanced combustion engines, and specifically Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI). A low-temperature gasoline combustion (LGTC) engine operating in HCCI mode and a rapid compression machine (RCM) are utilized to experimentally quantify fuel reactivity, through autoignition and preliminary heat release characteristics. Fuels considered include a research grade E10 U.S. gasoline (RD5-87), three multi-component surrogates (PACE-1, PACE-8, PACE-20), and a binary surrogate (PRF88.4). Each fuel was studied at lean/HCCI-like conditions covering a wide range of temperatures and pressures that are representative of naturally aspirated to high boost engine operation. Detailed chemical kinetic modeling is also undertaken using a recently updated gasoline surrogate kinetic model to simulate the RCM experiments and to provide chemical insight into surrogate-to-surrogate differences. The LGTC engine experiments demonstrate nearly identical reactivity between PACE-20 and RD5-87 across studied conditions, while faster phasing is seen for both PACE-1 and PACE-8 due to their stronger intermediate- and low-temperature heat release (ITHR/LTHR) at naturally aspirated and boosted conditions, respectively. The RCM experiments reveal typical low-temperature, negative temperature coefficient (NTC) and intermediate-temperature autoignition behaviors at all pressure conditions for RD5-87, which are qualitatively reproduced by all surrogates. Quantitative discrepancies in both autoignition and preliminary heat release are observed for all surrogates, while their ability to replicate RD5-87 autoignition behavior follows the order of PACE-20 > PACE-1 > PACE-8 > PRF88.4. Excellent mapping is obtained between the LGTC engine and the RCM, where the engine pressure-time trajectories can be characterized by the regimes represented by the RCM autoignition isopleths. The kinetic model performs commendably when simulating both autoignition and preliminary heat release of PACE-20, while typically overpredicting ignition delay times for PACE-1, PACE-8 and PRF88.4 at high-pressure and low-temperature/NTC conditions. Sensitivity and rate of production (ROP) analyses highlight surrogate-to-surrogate differences in the governing chemical kinetics where n-pentane initiates rapid OH branching at a faster rate and an earlier timing for PACE-20 than iso-pentane does for PACE-1 and PACE-8, making it computationally more reactive than the other surrogates. The current study highlights the need to include non-standardized properties, such as the lean/HCCI-like autoignition characteristics, in addition to ASTM properties (e.g., RON, MON) as metrics of fuel reactivity and targets to be matched when formulating high-fidelity surrogates that fully capture gasoline advanced combustion behavior such as HCCI-like autoignition.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Tritium Fires: Simulation and Safety Assessment
This is the Sandia report from a joint NSRD project between Sandia National Labs and Savannah River National Labs. The project involved development of simulation tools and data intended to be useful for tritium operations safety assessment. Tritium is a synthetic isotope of hydrogen that has a limited lifetime, and it is found at many tritium facilities in the form of elemental gas (T 2 ). The most serious risk of reasonable probability in an accident scenario is when the tritium is released and reacts with oxygen to form a water molecule, which is subsequently absorbed into the human body. This tritium oxide is more readily absorbed by the body and therefore represents a limiting factor for safety analysis. The abnormal condition of a fire may result in conversion of the safer T 2 inventory to the more hazardous oxidized form. It is this risk that tends to govern the safety protocols. Tritium fire datasets do not exist, so prescriptive safety guidance is largely conservative and reliant on means other than testing to formulate guidelines. This can have a consequence in terms of expensive and/or unnecessary mitigation design, handling protocols, and operational activities. This issue can be addressed through added studies on the behavior of tritium under representative conditions. Due to the hazards associated with the tests, this is being approached mainly from a modeling and simulation standpoint and surrogate testing. This study largely establishes the capability to generate simulation predictions with sufficiently credible characteristics to be accepted for safety guidelines as a surrogate for actual data through a variety of testing and modeling activities.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Finding Electronic Structure Machine Learning Surrogates without Training
A myriad of phenomena in materials science and chemistry rely on quantum-level simulations of the electronic structure in matter. While moving to larger length and time scales has been a pressing issue for decades, such large-scale electronic structure calculations are still challenging despite modern software approaches and advances in high-performance computing. The silver lining in this regard is the use of machine learning to accelerate electronic structure calculations – this line of research has recently gained growing attention. The grand challenge therein is finding a suitable machine-learning model during a process called hyperparameter optimization. This, however, causes a massive computational overhead in addition to that of data generation. We accelerate the construction of machine-learning surrogate models by roughly two orders of magnitude by circumventing excessive training during the hyperparameter optimization phase. We demonstrate our workflow for Kohn-Sham density functional theory, the most popular computational method in materials science and chemistry.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Computationally efficient and error aware surrogate construction for numerical solutions of subsurface flow through porous media
Limiting the injection rate to restrict the pressure below a threshold at a critical location can be an important goal of simulations that model the subsurface pressure between injection and extraction wells. The pressure is approximated by the solution of Darcy’s partial differential equation for a given permeability field. The subsurface permeability is modeled as a random field since it is known only up to statistical properties. This induces uncertainty in the computed pressure. Solving the partial differential equation for an ensemble of random permeability simulations enables estimating a probability distribution for the pressure at the critical location. These simulations are computationally expensive, and practitioners often need rapid online guidance for real-time pressure management. An ensemble of numerical partial differential equation solutions is used to construct a Gaussian process regression model that can quickly predict the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. The Gaussian process surrogate analyzes the ensemble of numerical pressure solutions at the critical location as noisy observations of the true pressure solution, enabling robust inference using the conditional Gaussian process distribution. Our first novel contribution is to identify a sampling methodology for the random environment and matching kernel technology for which fitting the Gaussian process regression model scales as O ( n log n ) instead of the typical O ( n 3 ) rate in the number of samples n used to fit the surrogate. The surrogate model allows almost instantaneous predictions for the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. Our second contribution is a novel algorithm to calibrate the uncertainty in the surrogate model to the discrepancy between the true pressure solution of Darcy’s equation and the numerical solution. Finally, although our method is derived for building a surrogate for the solution of Darcy’s equation with a random permeability field, the framework broadly applies to solutions of other partial differential equations with random coefficients.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
MFNets: data efficient all-at-once learning of multifidelity surrogates as directed networks of information sources
We present an approach for constructing a surrogate from ensembles of information sources of varying cost and accuracy. The multifidelity surrogate encodes connections between information sources as a directed acyclic graph, and is trained via gradient-based minimization of a nonlinear least squares objective. While the vast majority of state-of-the-art assumes hierarchical connections between information sources, our approach works with flexibly structured information sources that may not admit a strict hierarchy. The formulation has two advantages: (1) increased data efficiency due to parsimonious multifidelity networks that can be tailored to the application; and (2) no constraints on the training data—we can combine noisy, non-nested evaluations of the information sources. Finally, numerical examples ranging from synthetic to physics-based computational mechanics simulations indicate the error in our approach can be orders-of-magnitude smaller, particularly in the low-data regime, than single-fidelity and hierarchical multifidelity approaches.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
An mRNA vaccine encoding the Ebola virus glycoprotein induces high neutralizing antibody titers and provides strong protection against lethal infections in mouse models
Ebola virus (EBOV) is the causative agent of Ebola disease (EBOD), a viral hemorrhagic fever with a notably high case fatality rate. Current treatments for EBOD are limited to monoclonal antibodies or two licensed viral vector vaccines, a recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus (rVSV)-vectored vaccine or an adenovirus and modified vaccinia Ankara regimen. However, comparisons of protection, efficacy, and durability with alternative nucleotide platforms remain understudied. Here, we evaluated the immunogenicity of an mRNA vaccine expressing the EBOV glycoprotein (GP) in parallel with rVSV- and DNA-based vaccine platforms. The mRNA EBOV-GP vaccine, formulated in lipid nanoparticles, elicited significantly higher levels of total IgG and neutralizing antibody titers compared to the rVSV-EBOV-GP vaccine. Linear antibody epitope analysis indicated a preference for targeting the mucin-like domain in EBOV-GP1 following rVSV-based vaccination, while the mRNA platform distinctly targeted the internal fusion loop of EBOV-GP2. After characterizing the immunogenicity of the mRNA vaccine, two models of EBOD were used to demonstrate its protective efficacy: a surrogate rVSV-based challenge model of EBOD using type-I interferon deficient C57BL/6 mice and infection of BALB/c mice with authentic mouse-adapted EBOV. In both studies, the EBOV mRNA vaccine fully protected the mouse cohorts against morbidity and mortality. Additionally, the EBOV mRNA vaccine produced greater neutralizing antibody titers compared to the DNA EBOV-GP vaccine. These results suggest that an mRNA vaccine expressing EBOV-GP can induce robust, functional humoral responses that are protective against EBOD, warranting further development as an alternative to, or as part of a vaccine strategy including, viral vectored vaccines.
DNA vaccines↗
Particle-in-cell (hPIC) data
Data generated from the hPIC particle-in-cell code to construct a surrogate ion energy-angle distribution (IEAD) model.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Convoluted filtering for process cycle modeling
Principles of materials science and engineering, physics, mathematics, and information science are used to extract knowledge and insights from the process-structure–property-performance relationships hidden in materials data. The process-structure modeling can be accelerated without loss of interpretability, with artificial intelligence tools that mimic the salient features of the process and process-structure relations. In this work, a novel convoluted model-filtering technique was exploited to build and successfully train the Convoluted Filter (CoFi) artifacts for Fe-based alloy heat treatment cycles. The artifacts were pre-trained to filter out deep models that change the surrogate microstructure state after the heat treatment at ambient conditions. Direct representation of the thermal cycle features within knowledge Graph facilitated development of meaningful data models for microstructure evolution, which reduce overfitting to limited datasets.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
A two-phase three-field modeling framework for heat pipe application in nuclear reactors
Heat pipes and two-phase thermosyphons are highly efficient heat transfer devices utilizing continuous evaporation and condensation of working fluid for two-phase heat transport in closed systems. Because of the nearly isothermal and fully passive phase-change heat transfer mechanism, heat pipes and thermosyphons have found many applications in nuclear engineering, space technologies, and other energy systems. High-temperature heat pipes are used in nuclear microreactors to remove fission power from the primary system and are coupled with power conversion systems or process heat applications. Modeling of the two-phase flow phenomena inside a heat pipe is essential to its design and safety analysis. In this study, a comprehensive one-dimensional two-phase three-field flow model has been developed for the analysis of heat pipes in normal operation conditions and transients. The conservation or field equations of mass, momentum, and energy were developed for the liquid film, vapor, and droplet. In addition, constitutive models or correlations were reviewed thoroughly and provided for the closure of the three-field equations. Specific constitutive equations regarding interfacial mass and heat transfer at two interfaces, namely film-gas interface and gas-droplet interface, were reviewed for droplet entrainment and deposition rates as well as film and droplet evaporation rates. Furthermore, mechanistic correlations of annular flow film thickness were recommended for the modeling of the thermosyphons without a wick as a critical constitutive correlation. Furthermore, experimental data needs from new experiments using a prototype working fluid or surrogate fluids for the model validation of high-temperature heat pipes in microreactors were recommended for future research.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Differentiable Multiphysics Codes: A Breakthrough Technology for Simulation and Computing
This document summarizes the findings of a strategic planning exercise commissioned by the Weapons Simulation and Computing, Computational Physics (WSC/CP) program at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in FY24. During the year, the committee met with multiple stakeholder communities to gather input, opinions, suggestions and concerns which have been incorporated throughout this document. The key findings from this exercise are summarized: • The development of multiphysics modelling and simulation (mod/sim) codes and software technologies, their deployment on exascale compute platforms, and their broad adoption across the NNSA is a major success of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program and the Exascale Computing Project (ECP). Sustained investment in these core technologies is essential. • Today’s state of the art involves running ensembles of O(100K) simulations to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) and design studies using multiple statistical methods such as Bayesian optimization to understand sensitivities of our models and explore parameterized design spaces. Even with exascale computing, we are practically limited to O(10) parameters in these studies since the number of simulations required to sample the space scales exponentially with the number of design parameters. • The data from these simulation ensembles is increasingly being used to train machine learned (ML) surrogates (or reduced order models, ROMs) which can then be used for optimization or real time design exploration. However, the trained surrogates are still limited in the number of parameters they can represent due to the sampling limitations previously noted. • Augmenting our suite of integrated multiphysics simulation codes, both current and emerging, with the ability to compute gradients (solution derivatives) of arbitrary simulation outputs with respect to (some or all) simulation inputs would be a breakthrough technology, opening the door to a new era of efficient and automated inverse design based on verified and validated mod/sim capabilities. • This capability, which we refer to as differentiable multiphysics codes (DMCs), would revolutionize both UQ and optimization studies by breaking the curse of dimensionality that presently limits our “gradient-free” ensemble based computing approach. A similar breakthrough occurred in the AI/ML community once the ability to compute gradients of arbitrary loss functions using back-propagation became commonplace. Gradient information from the multiphysics codes can also be used to dramatically improve the efficiency and scale of training of ML/ROM surrogates for rapid assessments. • Achieving this in our suite of codes will be a grand challenge, similar to the amount of effort that was required to transition from CPU to GPU computing. It will require buy-in from the entire WSC/CP program and beyond, including all integrated codes, physics and engineering models, third-party library dependencies and performance portability abstractions. It will also require investment in research and development of numerical methods for computing adjoints of coupled physics across multiple adaptively refined moving meshes and of stochastic (Monte Carlo) and mesh free (SPH) methods. • New software and numerical techniques, largely pioneered by the AI/ML community, make this feasible. Chief among these is automatic differentiation (AD), the ability to employ AD at point-wise locations in a physics calculation (instead of traditional black-box approaches) and the ability to perform “back-propagation in time” (or reverse mode AD) for non-linear partial differential equations (PDEs). Fundamentally, the conclusion of this strategic planning exercise is that the time is right to undertake a large scale effort in WSC, centered on the existing integrated codes, to continue the natural evolution of mod/sim in the age of AI/ML. Instead of attempting to replace mod/sim with purely data driven AI/ML models, we believe the key to success is to integrate AI/ML by building on top of the decades of hard-won knowledge and the verified/validated multiphysics modelling capability that is the hallmark of the ASC program.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗