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Topics treated in this presentation include continuous mold line technologies and linearizing non-linear models in support of airworthiness assessments.
NASA is currently evaluating different methods to predict how much time crewmembers will spend conducting repair and maintenance activities on future space missions. As mission scope and spacecraft architectures change, it will be necessary to understand how crew repair and maintenance timelines are impacted by mission operations and technology changes. Past work has been done using historical ISS data to accurately predict crew habitation and operation timelines, resulting in the development of NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). However, understanding crew maintenance and repair requirements has posed a unique challenge due to the complexity of available datasets, the probabilistic nature of sub-system failures, and the impacts of reliability growth on failure rates. This paper presents a methodology to collect and condition empirical repair and maintenance time data from available data sets, to extrapolate from that data to estimate projected maintenance and repair times for a lunar Surface Habitat, and to assess how uncertainty in repair time could impact utilization time on the lunar surface. NASA International Space Station (ISS) maintenance and crew time data are logged into two central databases, the Maintenance Data Collection (MDC) and the Operations Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS) respectively. Separately, each of these two datasets capture only portions of the complete set of data required to generate an accurate assessment of crew time spent on maintenance activities at a sub-system level. MDC provides a detailed catalog of failure events and an overview of the failure’s required maintenance and OPTimIS provides a description of crew activities and crew time durations dedicated to maintenance. To create a more useful crew time estimate for maintenance timelines, the authors developed a methodology to capture relevant data from each set and combine and utilize that data by linking crew time requirements to specific components. The authors compare the failure logs in the MDC to crew activity logs pulled from OPTimIS and then process the data to estimate required repair times for each failure event. Data is also classified by the outcome of each repair event, whether the failed component was replaced or whether it was repaired in place. The entire maintenance activity dataset is then categorized based on the class of failed component to allow for a statistically significant sample size for each class and to provide accurate crew time estimates for any components lacking relevant data. This resultant component repair time data can be used in the future to generate Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) estimates and confidence intervals for each class of component based on a probabilistic distribution of documented maintenance events. These improved MTTR values can then be applied to candidate element sub-system architectures, along with component Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) data to generate distributions for potential required system crew repair time estimates for a given mission. Repair time distributions can then be used to develop more accurate crew schedules and to assess potential available utilization time.
Compact and automated sensors are desired for assessing the health of cell cultures in biotechnology experiments in microgravity. Measurement of cell culture medium allows for the optirn.jzation of culture conditions on orbit to maximize cell growth and minimize unnecessary exchange of medium. While several discrete sensors exist to measure culture health, a multi-parameter sensor would simplify the experimental apparatus. One such sensor, the Paratrend 7, consists of three optical fibers for measuring pH, dissolved oxygen (p02), dissolved carbon dioxide (pC02) , and a thermocouple to measure temperature. The sensor bundle was designed for intra-arterial placement in clinical patients, and potentially can be used in NASA's Space Shuttle and International Space Station biotechnology program bioreactors. Methods: A Paratrend 7 sensor was placed at the outlet of a rotating-wall perfused vessel bioreactor system inoculated with BHK-21 (baby hamster kidney) cells. Cell culture medium (GTSF-2, composed of 40% minimum essential medium, 60% L-15 Leibovitz medium) was manually measured using a bench top blood gas analyzer (BGA, Ciba-Corning). Results: A Paratrend 7 sensor was used over a long-term (>120 day) cell culture experiment. The sensor was able to track changes in cell medium pH, p02, and pC02 due to the consumption of nutrients by the BHK-21. When compared to manually obtained BGA measurements, the sensor had good agreement for pH, p02, and pC02 with bias [and precision] of 0.02 [0.15], 1 mm Hg [18 mm Hg], and -4.0 mm Hg [8.0 mm Hg] respectively. The Paratrend oxygen sensor was recalibrated (offset) periodically due to drift. The bias for the raw (no offset or recalibration) oxygen measurements was 42 mm Hg [38 mm Hg]. The measured response (rise) time of the sensor was 20 +/- 4s for pH, 81 +/- 53s for pC02, 51 +/- 20s for p02. For long-term cell culture measurements, these response times are more than adequate. Based on these findings , the Paratrend sensor could offer automated, continuous monitoring of cell cultures with a temporal resolution of 1 minute, which is not attainable by sampling via handheld blood analyzer (i-STAT). Conclusion: The resulting bias and precision found in these cell culture-based studies is comparable to Paratrend sensor clinical results. Although the large error in p02 measurements (+/-18 mm Hg) may be acceptable for clinical applications, where Paratrend values are periodically adjusted to a BGA measurement, the O2 sensor in this bundle may not be reliable enough for the single-calibration requirement of sensors used in NASA's bioreactors. The pH and pC02 sensors in the bundle are reliable and stable over the measurement period, and can be used without recalibration to measure cell cultures in rn.jcrogravity biotechnology experiments. Future work will test additional Paratrend sensors to provide statistical assessment of sensor performance.
A key capability required for the exploration of planetary bodies is the ability to land on the surface. Previous work performed by NASA and other institutions has primarily focused on landing small spacecraft on planetary surfaces and the associated small-to-medium thrusters required for the soft landing. In the case of human exploration—particularly the establishment of long duration exploration and habitation outposts—the ability to land large landers, such as the SpaceX Starship, is necessary. These larger landing systems require the use of more powerful engines, with higher engine exhaust temperatures and higher landing loads. Understanding the excavation of material by the engines, as well as the potential for the landing legs to sink into the subsurface, is key in ensuring reliable and safe landings. A further improvement in landing reliability can be achieved by constructing landing / launch pads, especially with in-situ resources. Some material excavation by the plume is inevitable, leaving at least a portion of the surface scoured and uneven under the lander and ejecting regolith particles and rocks at very high velocities. One possible solution would be to robotically build landing / launch pads (ideally autonomously) at the destination using in-situ materials. In this case, the first one or few landers will need to land on unimproved surfaces at higher risk; however, they would bring the required equipment to build the landing pads with mostly local resources, thus increasing the reliability of safe landing for subsequent larger landers. A number of methods to build in-situ landing and launch pads have already been developed. These methods include no, or some, addition of required binder additives to the local regolith material, different processing approaches and result in varying landing pad strengths. A sub-scale rocket engine plume, was used to simulate some of the conditions of a landing on the Moon to assess the effectiveness of various materials for an in-situ built landing pad, The GO2/GCH4rocket engine fired on a 1m2area coupons of representative pad materials. The results will allow continued development towards materials that satisfy the landing pad properties required for the effective risk reduction and increased reliability for landing people and equipment on the lunar surface. This work contained two parts: (1) computer modeling of a large rocket engine plume interacting with regolith on the Moon, using the Granular Gas Flow Solver (GGFS) provided by CFD Research Corporation as well as other computational fluid dynamics codes (CFD) such as Loci/CHEM. (2) Developing landing/launch pad materials that could be used for in-situ construction on the lunar surface in the future, to mitigate the calculated effects of a large vehicle rocket engine landing and launching on the Moon.
NASA is currently evaluating different methods to predict how much time crewmembers will spend conducting repair and maintenance activities on future space missions. As mission scope and spacecraft architectures change, understanding how crew repair and maintenance timelines are impacted by mission operations and technology changes is vital for future mission planning. Past work has been done using historical International Space Station (ISS) data to accurately predict crew habitation and operation timelines, resulting in the development of NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). However, understanding crew maintenance and repair requirements has posed a unique challenge due to the complexity of available datasets, the probabilistic nature of sub-system failures, and the impacts of reliability growth on failure rates. This paper presents a methodology to collect and condition empirical repair and maintenance time data from available datasets, to extrapolate from that data to estimate projected maintenance and repair times for a lunar Surface Habitat (SH), and to assess how uncertainty in repair time could impact utilization time on the lunar surface. NASA ISS maintenance and crew time data are logged into two central databases: the Maintenance Data Collection (MDC) and the Operations Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS). Separately, each of these two datasets capture only portions of the complete set of data required to generate an accurate assessment of crew time spent on maintenance activities at a sub-system level. To create a more useful crew time estimate for maintenance timelines, the authors developed a methodology to capture relevant data from each set and combine and utilize that data by linking crew time requirements to specific components. The authors compare the failure logs in the MDC to crew activity logs pulled from OPTimIS and then process the data to estimate required repair time for each failure and repair event. The entire maintenance activity dataset is then categorized based on the class of failed component to ensure a significant sample size for each class and accurate crew time estimates for any components lacking relevant data. This resultant component repair time data can be used in the future to generate Mean Time to Repair (MTTR) estimates and confidence intervals for each class of component based on a probabilistic distribution of documented maintenance events. These improved MTTR values can then be applied to candidate element sub-system architectures, along with component Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) data to generate distributions for potential required system crew repair time estimates for a given mission. The authors applied these modeling methods to a case study of a crewed mission to the planned SH and produced expected corrective maintenance crew time distributions. The results produced an expected corrective maintenance crew time at over 24 hours per mission, and a maintenance crew time distribution that reflects the importance of planning for sufficient maintenance requirements each mission. Repair time distributions can then be used to develop more accurate crew schedules and to assess potential available utilization time.
Survey and questionnaire techniques were used to gather data from users and manufacturers on the failure rates in the field of plastic encapsulated semiconductors. It was found that such solid state devices are being successfully used by commercial companies which impose certain screening and qualification procedures. The reliability of these semiconductors is now adequate to support their consideration in NASA systems, particularly in low cost systems. The cost of performing necessary screening for NASA applications was assessed.
The major objectives and FY 1980 accomplishments are described of a long term program designed to determine the usefulness, cost, and extent to which aerospace remote sensing data can be integrated into existing or future USDA systems to improve the objectivity, reliability, timeliness, and adequacy of information. A general overview, the primary and participating agencies, and the technical highlights of each of the following projects are presented: early warning/crop condition assessment; foreign commodity production forecasting; yield model development; supporting research; soil moisture; domestic crops and land cover; renewable resources inventory; and conservation and pollution.
NASA's Space Station Technology Steering Committee has undertaken the definition of the level of technology that is desirable for use in the initial design and operation of an evolutionary, long service life space station, as well as the longer term technology required for the improvement of capabilities. The technology should initially become available in 1986, in order to support a space station launch as early as 1990. Toward this end, the committee seeks to assess technology forecasts based on existing research and testing capacity, and then plan and monitor a program which will move current technology to the requisite level of sophistication and reliability. The Space Shuttle is assumed to be the vehicle for space station delivery, assembly, and support on a 90-day initial cycle. Space station tasks will be military, commercial, and scientific, including on-orbit satellite servicing.
Theoretical and experimental research on the effects of buoyancy on gas-jet diffusion flames is described. Part of this research involves an assessment of existing data obtained under reduced-gravity conditions. The results show that uncertainties in the current understanding of flame structure exist and further research is required before reliable predictions of ignition, stabilization, and propagation of flames under microgravity conditions can be made. Steady-state and transient theories have been developed and used in the analysis of existing drop-tower data and new data obtained from a stationary experiment involving inverted flames. The result of this research has led to the definition of a microgravity experiment to be performed in space.
This program has been conducted to develop the technology for critical structural joints of a composite wing structure meeting design requirements for a 1990 commercial transport aircraft. A prime objective of the program was to demonstrate the ability to reliably predict the strength of large bolted composite joints. Load sharing between bolts in multirow joints was computed by a nonlinear analysis program (A4FJ) which was used both to assess the efficiency of different joint design concepts and to predict the strengths of large test articles representing a section from a wing root chord-wise splice. In most cases, the predictions were accurate to within a few percent of the test results. A highlight of these tests was the consistent ability to achieve gross-section failure strains on the order of 0.005 which represents a considerable improvement over the state of the art. The improvement was attained largely as the result of the better understanding of the load sharing in multirow joints provided by the analysis. The typical load intensity on the structural joints was about 40 to 45 thousand pound per inch in laminates having interspersed 37 1/2-percent 0-degree plies, 50-percent + or - 45-degrees plies and 12 1/2-percent 90-degrees plies. The composite material was Toray 300 fiber and Ciba-Geigy 914 resin, in the form of 0.010-inch thick unidirectional tape.
Spacecraft on-board synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image generation is an extremely difficult problem because of the requirements for high computational rates (usually on the order of Giga-operations per second), high reliability (some missions last up to 10 years), and low power dissipation and mass (typically less than 500 watts and 100 Kilograms). Recently, a JPL study was performed to assess the feasibility of on-board SAR image generation for EOS-type missions. This paper summarizes the results of that study. Specifically, it proposes a processor architecture using a VLSI time-domain parallel array for azimuth correlation. Using available space qualifiable technology to implement the proposed architecture, an on-board SAR processor having acceptable power and mass characteristics appears feasible for EOS-type applications.
The paper presents the results of a concept development study of heat rejection systems for Space Station solar dynamic power systems. The thermal performance and weights of each of the heat rejection subsystems have been addressed in detail, and critical technologies which require development tests and evaluation for successful demonstration were assessed and identified. Baseline and several alternate heat rejection system configurations and optimum designs were developed for both Brayton and Rankine cycles. The thermal performance, mass properties, assembly requirements, reliability, maintenance requirements, and life cycle costs were determined for each of the system configurations. Trade studies were performed on each configuration with respect to the heat pipe wall thickness and the amount of redundancy to determine the effects on system reliability, maintenance requirements, and life cycle costs. An optimum design was then selected for each configuration.
The results are presented of a concept development study of heat rejection systems for Space Station solar dynamic power systems. The heat rejection concepts are based on recent developments in high thermal transport capacity heat pipe radiators. The thermal performance and weights of each of the heat rejection subsystems is addressed in detail, and critical technologies which require development tests and evaluation for successful demonstration are assessed and identified. Baseline and several alternate heat rejection system configurations and optimum designs are developed for both Brayton and Rankine cycles. The thermal performance, mass properties, assembly requirements, reliability, maintenance requirements and life cycle cost are determined for each configuration. A specific design was then selected for each configuration which represents an optimum design for that configuration. The final recommendations of heat rejection system configuration for either the Brayton or Rankine cycles depend on the priorities established for the evaluation criteria.
An evolutionary strategy for the Shuttle is presented which aims at achieving reliable low-cost transportation through a process of continuous enhancement and evolution of existing systems. The strategy is based on a methodology which supports the identification and quantitative assessment of potential Shuttle evolutionary paths. Key inputs supporting this methodology include candidate STS enhancements and the definition of long-term goals and requirements. Some of the proposed enhancements are discussed.
A key to predicting climate change is to observe an understand the global distribution of clouds and their physical properties such as optical thickness and droplet size. Since clouds change rapidly over short time and space intervals, they are difficult to simulate in computer models. But it is essential that global climate models predict realistic spatial and temporal distribution of cloud optical depth. The best way to verify these distributions is to infer optical depth from global coverage satellite data. However, satellite methods have many sources of uncertainty; thus, independent and reliable ground-based estimates are essential for validation. For aerosol, there is the AERONET - a ground based monitoring network that consists of identical multi-channel radiometers for assessing aerosol optical properties and validating their satellite retrievals. In addition to AEROSOL, we want the network monitoring CLOUD optical properties. It will use AERONET "time" (inappropriate for aerosol studies) to make basic new measurements related to cloud physics. In the presentation we will report on a new technique that retrieves cloud optical thickness for even broken clouds above green vegetation from surface measurements of zenith radiance in the visible (VIS) and near-IR (NIR) spectral regions. The idea of the method is simple: since green vegetation reflects 40-50% of incoming radiation in the NIR and only 5-10% in the VIS region, ground measurements under thin clouds have little spectral contrast between VIS and NIR, while thick clouds reflect much more of the surface-reflected radiation in the NIR than in VIS. Based on this idea, we use a combination of measurements (spectral indices) in VIS and NIR to estimate cloud optical thickness. By analogy with NDVI, the simplest index that can be defined is the Normalized Difference Cloud Index (NDCI) which is a ratio between the difference and the sum of two radiances measured for two narrow spectral bands in VIS and NIR.
A key capability required for the exploration of planetary bodies is the ability to land on the surface. Previous work performed by NASA and other institutions has primarily focused on landing small spacecraft on planetary surfaces and the associated small-to-medium thrusters required for the soft landing. In the case of human exploration—particularly the establishment of long duration exploration and habitation outposts—the ability to land large landers, such as the SpaceX Starship, is necessary. These larger landing systems require the use of more powerful engines, with higher engine exhaust temperatures and higher landing loads. Understanding the excavation of material by the engines, as well as the potential for the landing legs to sink into the subsurface, is key in ensuring reliable and safe landings. A further improvement in landing reliability can be achieved by constructing landing / launch pads, especially with in-situ resources. Some material excavation by the plume is inevitable, leaving at least a portion of the surface scoured and uneven under the lander and ejecting regolith particles and rocks at very high velocities. One possible solution would be to robotically build landing / launch pads (ideally autonomously) at the destination using in-situ materials. In this case, the first one or few landers will need to land on unimproved surfaces at higher risk; however, they would bring the required equipment to build the landing pads with mostly local resources, thus increasing the reliability of safe landing for subsequent larger landers. A number of methods to build in-situ landing and launch pads have already been developed. These methods include no or some addition of required binder additives to the local regolith material, different processing approaches and result in varying landing pad strengths. A sub-scale rocket engine plume, was used to simulate some of the conditions of a landing on the Moon to assess the effectiveness of various materials for an in-situ built landing pad, The GO2/GCH4 rocket engine fired on 1m2 area coupons of representative pad materials. The results will allow continued development towards materials that satisfy the landing pad properties required for the effective risk reduction and increased reliability for landing people and equipment on the lunar surface. This work contained two parts: (1) computer modeling of a large rocket engine plume interacting with regolith on the Moon, using the Granular Gas Flow Solver (GGFS) provided by CFD Research Corporation as well as other computational fluid dynamics codes (CFD) such as Loci/CHEM. (2) Developing landing/launch pad materials that could be used for in-situ construction on the lunar surface in the future, to mitigate the calculated effects of a large vehicle rocket engine landing and launching on the Moon. The resulting computed values of plume impingement surface temperature, stagnation pressure, gas velocity, shear stress and heat flux were then matched as closely as possible in the Earth’s atmosphere in a sub-scale rocket engine GO2/CH4 test which was provided by Masten Space Systems in Mojave, California. The rocket engine was mounted on a test stand with vertical translation capabilities so that the landing operations of a lander could be simulated (Figure 1).The pad materials test coupons were placed at the surface of a large bin containing simulated lunar basalt regolith and subjected to a test firing as shown in Figure 2. The results of this testing will be presented with related findings, analysis and discussion.
The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning man), program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility.
The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning many program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility. This paper presents the plans for the newly established role. Described is how the Independent Program Assessment Office, working with all NASA Centers, NASA Headquarters, other Government agencies, and industry, is focused on creating cost estimation and analysis as a professional discipline that will be recognized equally with the technical disciplines needed to design new space and aeronautics activities. Investments in selected, new analysis tools, creating advanced training opportunities for analysts, and developing career paths for future analysts engaged in the discipline are all elements of the plan. Plans also include increasing the human resources available to conduct independent cost analysis of Agency programs during their formulation, to improve near-term capability to conduct economic cost-benefit assessments, to support NASA management's decision process, and to provide cost analysis results emphasizing "full-cost" and "full-life cycle" considerations. The Agency cost analysis improvement plan has been approved for implementation starting this calendar year. Adequate financial and human resources are being made available to accomplish the goals of this important effort, and all indications are that NASA's cost estimation and analysis core competencies will be substantially improved within the foreseeable future.