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Initialization and Restart in Stochastic Local Search: Computing a Most Probable Explanation in Bayesian Networks

For hard computational problems, stochastic local search has proven to be a competitive approach to finding optimal or approximately optimal problem solutions. Two key research questions for stochastic local search algorithms are: Which algorithms are effective for initialization? When should the search process be restarted? In the present work we investigate these research questions in the context of approximate computation of most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). We introduce a novel approach, based on the Viterbi algorithm, to explanation initialization in BNs. While the Viterbi algorithm works on sequences and trees, our approach works on BNs with arbitrary topologies. We also give a novel formalization of stochastic local search, with focus on initialization and restart, using probability theory and mixture models. Experimentally, we apply our methods to the problem of MPE computation, using a stochastic local search algorithm known as Stochastic Greedy Search. By carefully optimizing both initialization and restart, we reduce the MPE search time for application BNs by several orders of magnitude compared to using uniform at random initialization without restart. On several BNs from applications, the performance of Stochastic Greedy Search is competitive with clique tree clustering, a state-of-the-art exact algorithm used for MPE computation in BNs.

Mengshoel, Ole J.

The Gravity Field, Orientation, and Ephemeris of Mercury from MESSENGER Observations After Three Years in Orbit

We have analyzed three years of radio tracking data from the MESSENGER spacecraft in orbit around Mercury and determined the gravity field, planetary orientation, and ephemeris of the innermost planet. With improvements in spatial coverage, force modeling, and data weighting, we refined an earlier global gravity field both in quality and resolution, and we present here a spherical harmonic solution to degree and order 50. In this field, termed HgM005, uncertainties in low-degree coefficients are reduced by an order of magnitude relative to the earlier global field, and we obtained a preliminary value of the tidal Love number k(sub 2) of 0.451+/-0.014. We also estimated Mercury's pole position, and we obtained an obliquity value of 2.06 +/- 0.16 arcmin, in good agreement with analysis of Earth-based radar observations. From our updated rotation period (58.646146 +/- 0.000011 days) and Mercury ephemeris, we verified experimentally the planet's 3: 2 spin-orbit resonance to greater accuracy than previously possible. We present a detailed analysis of the HgM005 covariance matrix, and we describe some near-circular frozen orbits around Mercury that could be advantageous for future exploration.

MESSENGER

Spillway Preheating

In traditional models only an order one fraction of energy is transferred from the inflaton to radiation through nonperturbative resonance production in preheating immediately after inflation, due to backreaction effects. We propose a particle production mechanism that could improve the depletion of the inflaton energy density by up to four orders of magnitude. The improvement comes from the fast perturbative decays of resonantly produced daughter particles. They act as a “spillway” to drain these daughter particles, reducing their backreaction on the inflaton and keeping the resonant production effective for a longer period. Thus we dub the scenario “spillway preheating”. We also show that the fraction of energy density remaining in the inflaton has a simple inverse power-law scaling in the scenario. In general, spillway preheating is a much more efficient energy dissipation mechanism, which may have other applications in model building for particle physics.

Cosmology of Theories beyond the SM

Linear Parameter-Varying Control Compatible with Excitation for Real-Time Modeling

The Modeling and Control for Agile Aircraft Development project (MCAAD) seeks to reduce the time spent on wind tunnel testing and computational fluid dynamic modeling when developing control laws for new commercial and military aircraft. MCAAD uses advanced dynamic modeling procedures coupled with real-time control design which can reduce the time and cost spent on traditional aircraft development methods. This is done in-flight by using a real-time modeling procedure where programmed test inputs (PTI) deflect the aircraft control surfaces, and the responses are measured in order to create a dynamic model. This paper presents an 𝐻∞-based linear parameter-varying (LPV) control law designed on a nonlinear rigid-body dynamic model which commands control surface deflections at frequencies above the PTI frequency band. Thus the controller will not suppress the response due to the PTI. The LPV controller is compared with a previously designed Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion (NDI) controller and the coherence between the commanded control surface deflections and the PTI is plotted for both controllers. The LPV controller is shown to distort the PTI less than the NDI controller.

Luke J. Miller

Real-time adaptive aircraft scheduling

One of the most important functions of any air traffic management system is the assignment of ground-holding times to flights, i.e., the determination of whether and by how much the take-off of a particular aircraft headed for a congested part of the air traffic control (ATC) system should be postponed in order to reduce the likelihood and extent of airborne delays. An analysis is presented for the fundamental case in which flights from many destinations must be scheduled for arrival at a single congested airport; the formulation is also useful in scheduling the landing of airborne flights within the extended terminal area. A set of approaches is described for addressing a deterministic and a probabilistic version of this problem. For the deterministic case, where airport capacities are known and fixed, several models were developed with associated low-order polynomial-time algorithms. For general delay cost functions, these algorithms find an optimal solution. Under a particular natural assumption regarding the delay cost function, an extremely fast (O(n ln n)) algorithm was developed. For the probabilistic case, using an estimated probability distribution of airport capacities, a model was developed with an associated low-order polynomial-time heuristic algorithm with useful properties.

Kolitz, Stephan E.

Investigation of the Potential of Repurposing Medium-Density Fiberboard Waste as an Adsorbent for Heavy Metal Ion Removal

Medium-density fiberboard (MDF) waste generation has increased steadily over the past decades, and therefore, the investigation of novel methods to recycle this waste is very important. The potential of repurposing MDF waste as an adsorbent for the treatment of Cd(II), Cu(II), Pb(II), and Zn(II) ions in water was investigated using MDF offcuts. The highest adsorption potential in single-metal ion solution systems was observed for Pb(II) ions. The experimental data of Pb(II) ions fit well with the Freundlich isotherm and pseudo-second-order kinetic models. Complexation and electrostatic interactions were identified as the adsorption mechanisms. The adsorption behavior of multi-metal ion adsorption systems was investigated by introducing Cd(II) ions as a competitive metal ion. The presence of the Cd(II) ions reduced the adsorption potential of Pb(II) ions, yet the preference for the Pb(II) ions remained. Regeneration studies were performed by using 0.1 M HCl as a regeneration agent for both systems. Even though a significant amount of adsorbed metal ions were recovered, the adsorption potential of the MDF was reduced in the subsequent adsorption cycles. Based on these results, MDF fines have the potential to be used as an economical adsorbent for remediation of wastewater containing heavy metal ions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Comparison of finite-difference schemes for analysis of shells of revolution

Several finite difference schemes are applied to the stress and free vibration analysis of homogeneous isotropic and layered orthotropic shells of revolution. The study is based on a form of the Sanders-Budiansky first-approximation linear shell theory modified such that the effects of shear deformation and rotary inertia are included. A Fourier approach is used in which all the shell stress resultants and displacements are expanded in a Fourier series in the circumferential direction, and the governing equations reduce to ordinary differential equations in the meridional direction. While primary attention is given to finite difference schemes used in conjunction with first order differential equation formulation, comparison is made with finite difference schemes used with other formulations. These finite difference discretization models are compared with respect to simplicity of application, convergence characteristics, and computational efficiency. Numerical studies are presented for the effects of variations in shell geometry and lamination parameters on the accuracy and convergence of the solutions obtained by the different finite difference schemes. On the basis of the present study it is shown that the mixed finite difference scheme based on the first order differential equation formulation and two interlacing grids for the different fundamental unknowns combines a number of advantages over other finite difference schemes previously reported in the literature.

Noor, A. K.

Computational methods of robust controller design for aerodynamic flutter suppression

The development of Riccati iteration, a tool for the design and analysis of linear control systems is examined. First, Riccati iteration is applied to the problem of pole placement and order reduction in two-time scale control systems. Order reduction, yielding a good approximation to the original system, is demonstrated using a 16th order linear model of a turbofan engine. Next, a numerical method for solving the Riccati equation is presented and demonstrated for a set of eighth order random examples. A literature review of robust controller design methods follows which includes a number of methods for reducing the trajectory and performance index sensitivity in linear regulators. Lastly, robust controller design for large parameter variations is discussed.

Anderson, L. R.

Turbofan engine control system design using the LQG/LTR methodology

Application of the linear-quadratic-Gaussian with loop-transfer-recovery methodology to design of a control system for a simplified turbofan engine model is considered. The importance of properly scaling the plant to achieve the desired target feedback loop is emphasized. The steps involved in the application of the methodology are discussed via an example, and evaluation results are presented for a reduced-order compensator. The effect of scaling the plant on the stability robustness evaluation of the closed-loop system is studied in detail.

Garg, Sanjay

Combustion noise and combustion instabilities in propulsion systems

This paper is concerned with some aspects of non-linear behavior of unsteady motions in combustion chambers. The emphasis is on conditions under which organized oscillations having discrete frequencies may exist in the presence of random motions. In order to treat the two types of motions together, and particularly to investigate coupling between noise and combustion instabilities, the unsteady field is represented as a synthesis of acoustic modes having time-varying amplitudes. Each of the amplitudes are written as the sum of two parts, one associated with the random field and the remainder representing the organized oscillations. After spatial averaging, the general problem is reduced to solution of a set of second-order ordinary differential equations whose structure depends on the sorts of nonlinear processes accounted for. This formulation accommodates any physical process; in particular, terms are included to represent noise sources, although only limited modeling is discussed. Our results suggest that random sources of noise have only small effects on combustion instabilities and seem not to be a cause of unstable motions. However, the coupling between the two sorts of unsteady motions may be important as an essential process in a proposed scheme for noise control. It is now a familiar observation that many nonlinear deterministic systems are capable of exhibiting apparently random motions called 'chaos.' This is a particularly interesting possibility for systems which also executed non-deterministic random motions. In combustion chambers, a nonlinear deterministic system (acoustical motions) exists in the presence of noise produced by flow separation, turbulent motions, and energy released by combustion processes. The last part of the paper is directed to the matter of discovering whether or not chaotic motions exist in combustion systems. Analysis has not progressed sufficiently far to answer the question. We report here recent results of processing data taken in one combustor to determine the dimensions of any attractors in the motions. No evidence has been found for chaos in the strict sense, but the method seems to be an important means of investigating the nonlinear behavior of combustion systems.

F. E. C. Culick

USM3D Analysis of Low Boom Configuration

In the past few years considerable improvement was made in NASA's in house boom prediction capability. As part of this improved capability, the USM3D Navier-Stokes flow solver, when combined with a suitable unstructured grid, went from accurately predicting boom signatures at 1 body length to 10 body lengths. Since that time, the research emphasis has shifted from analysis to the design of supersonic configurations with boom signature mitigation In order to design an aircraft, the techniques for accurately predicting boom and drag need to be determined. This paper compares CFD results with the wind tunnel experimental results conducted on a Gulfstream reduced boom and drag configuration. Two different wind-tunnel models were designed and tested for drag and boom data. The goal of this study was to assess USM3D capability for predicting both boom and drag characteristics. Overall, USM3D coupled with a grid that was sheared and stretched was able to reasonably predict boom signature. The computational drag polar matched the experimental results for a lift coefficient above 0.1 despite some mismatch in the predicted lift-curve slope.

Carter, Melissa B.

A Regional CO2 Observing System Simulation Experiment for the ASCENDS Satellite Mission

Top-down estimates of the spatiotemporal variations in emissions and uptake of CO2 will benefit from the increasing measurement density brought by recent and future additions to the suite of in situ and remote CO2 measurement platforms. In particular, the planned NASA Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) satellite mission will provide greater coverage in cloudy regions, at high latitudes, and at night than passive satellite systems, as well as high precision and accuracy. In a novel approach to quantifying the ability of satellite column measurements to constrain CO2 fluxes, we use a portable library of footprints (surface influence functions) generated by the WRF-STILT Lagrangian transport model in a regional Bayesian synthesis inversion. The regional Lagrangian framework is well suited to make use of ASCENDS observations to constrain fluxes at high resolution, in this case at 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude and weekly for North America. We consider random measurement errors only, modeled as a function of mission and instrument design specifications along with realistic atmospheric and surface conditions. We find that the ASCENDS observations could potentially reduce flux uncertainties substantially at biome and finer scales. At the 1 degree x 1 degree, weekly scale, the largest uncertainty reductions, on the order of 50 percent, occur where and when there is good coverage by observations with low measurement errors and the a priori uncertainties are large. Uncertainty reductions are smaller for a 1.57 micron candidate wavelength than for a 2.05 micron wavelength, and are smaller for the higher of the two measurement error levels that we consider (1.0 ppm vs. 0.5 ppm clear-sky error at Railroad Valley, Nevada). Uncertainty reductions at the annual, biome scale range from 40 percent to 75 percent across our four instrument design cases, and from 65 percent to 85 percent for the continent as a whole. Our uncertainty reductions at various scales are substantially smaller than those from a global ASCENDS inversion on a coarser grid, demonstrating how quantitative results can depend on inversion methodology. The a posteriori flux uncertainties we obtain, ranging from 0.01 to 0.06 Pg C yr-1 across the biomes, would meet requirements for improved understanding of long-term carbon sinks suggested by a previous study.

remote sensing

Air Traffic Management TestBed Data Exchange Model

The Air Traffic Management (ATM) TestBed is a Platform as a Service that is being developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to help design, configure, integrate, run, and monitor air traffic simulations. The platform is designed to provide cloud services including back-end, big-data analytics tools, on-demand computing resource management, data storage, and communication middleware. The ATM TestBed reduces the time to test concepts and technologies, supports interactions among various methods such as human-in-the-loop and automation-in-the-loop simulations, and enables collaborative simulations by sharing technologies and tools in the ATM community. In order to allow easier access to simulation components, TestBed provides a messaging support layer for connectivity using a consistent set of input/output interfaces. In addition, a standard data format is introduced to facilitate communication between the components. The data exchange model, supported in the messaging support layer, standardizes the format of the information to be exchanged among the components. This document describes the messaging data model currently developed in TestBed and provides data dictionaries for references to component developers as well as simulation engineers.

air traffic simulation

Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) Final Test Report of DM LHP TV Testing

Two loop heat pipes (LHPs) are to be used for thermal control of the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS), planned for flight in 2001. One LHP will be used to transport 100 W from a laser to the radiator, the other will transport 210 W from electronic boxes to the radiator. In order to verify the LHP design for the GLAS application, an LHP Development Model has been fabricated, and ambient and thermal vacuum tested. Two aluminum blocks of 15 kg and 30 kg, respectively, were attached to the LHP to simulate the thermal masses connected to the heat sources. A 20 W starter heater was installed on the evaporator to aid the loop startup. A new concept to thermally couple the vapor and liquid line was also incorporated in the LHP design. Such a thermal coupling would reduce the power requirement on the compensation chamber in order to maintain the loop set point temperature. To avoid freezing of the liquid in the condenser during cold cases, propylene was selected as the working fluid. The LHP was tested under reflux mode and with adverse elevation. Tests conducted included start-up, power cycle, steady state and transient operation during hot and cold cases, and heater power requirements for the set point temperature control of the LHP. Test results showed very successful operation of the LHP under all conditions. The 20 W starter heater proved necessary in order to start the loop when a large thermal mass was attached to the evaporator. The thermal coupling between the liquid line and the vapor line significantly reduced the heater power required for loop temperature control, which was less than 5 watts in all cases, including a cold radiator. The test also demonstrated successful operation with a propylene working fluid, with successful startups with condenser temperatures as low as 100 C. Furthermore, the test demonstrated accurate control of the loop operating temperature within +/- 0.2 C, and a successful shutdown of the loop during the survival mode of operation.

Baker, Charles

Algorithms for Performance, Dependability, and Performability Evaluation using Stochastic Activity Networks

Modeling tools and technologies are important for aerospace development. At the University of Illinois, we have worked on advancing the state of the art in modeling by Markov reward models in two important areas: reducing the memory necessary to numerically solve systems represented as stochastic activity networks and other stochastic Petri net extensions while still obtaining solutions in a reasonable amount of time, and finding numerically stable and memory-efficient methods to solve for the reward accumulated during a finite mission time. A long standing problem when modeling with high level formalisms such as stochastic activity networks is the so-called state space explosion, where the number of states increases exponentially with size of the high level model. Thus, the corresponding Markov model becomes prohibitively large and solution is constrained by the the size of primary memory. To reduce the memory necessary to numerically solve complex systems, we propose new methods that can tolerate such large state spaces that do not require any special structure in the model (as many other techniques do). First, we develop methods that generate row and columns of the state transition-rate-matrix on-the-fly, eliminating the need to explicitly store the matrix at all. Next, we introduce a new iterative solution method, called modified adaptive Gauss-Seidel, that exhibits locality in its use of data from the state transition-rate-matrix, permitting us to cache portions of the matrix and hence reduce the solution time. Finally, we develop a new memory and computationally efficient technique for Gauss-Seidel based solvers that avoids the need for generating rows of A in order to solve Ax = b. This is a significant performance improvement for on-the-fly methods as well as other recent solution techniques based on Kronecker operators. Taken together, these new results show that one can solve very large models without any special structure.

Deavours, Daniel D.

A Quantitative Study of Oxygen as a Metabolic Regulator

An acute reduction in oxygen (O2) delivery to a tissue is generally associated with a decrease in phosphocreatine, increases in ADP, NADH/NAD, and inorganic phosphate, increased rates of glycolysis and lactate production, and reduced rates of pyruvate and fatty acid oxidation. However, given the complexity of the human bioenergetic system and its components, it is difficult to determine quantitatively how cellular metabolic processes interact to maintain ATP homeostasis during stress (e.g., hypoxia, ischemia, and exercise). Of special interest is the determination of mechanisms relating tissue oxygenation to observed metabolic responses at the tissue, organ, and whole body levels and the quantification of how changes in tissue O2 availability affect the pathways of ATP synthesis and the metabolites that control these pathways. In this study, we extend a previously developed mathematical model of human bioenergetics to provide a physicochemical framework that permits quantitative understanding of O2 as a metabolic regulator. Specifically, the enhancement permits studying the effects of variations in tissue oxygenation and in parameters controlling the rate of cellular respiration on glycolysis, lactate production, and pyruvate oxidation. The whole body is described as a bioenergetic system consisting of metabolically distinct tissue/organ subsystems that exchange materials with the blood. In order to study the dynamic response of each subsystem to stimuli, we solve the ordinary differential equations describing the temporal evolution of metabolite levels, given the initial concentrations. The solver used in the present study is the packaged code LSODE, as implemented in the NASA Lewis kinetics and sensitivity analysis code, LSENS. A major advantage of LSENS is the efficient procedures supporting systematic sensitivity analysis, which provides the basic methods for studying parameter sensitivities (i.e., changes in model behavior due to parameter variation). Sensitivity analysis establishes relationships between model predictions and problem parameters (i.e., initial concentrations, rate coefficients, etc). It helps determine the effects of uncertainties or changes in these input parameters on the predictions, which ultimately are compared with experimental observations in order to validate the model. Sensitivity analysis can identify parameters that must be determined accurately because of their large effect on the model predictions and parameters that need not be known with great precision because they have little or no effect on the solution. This capability may prove to be important in optimizing the design of experiments, thereby reducing the use of animals. This approach can be applied to study the metabolic effects of reduced oxygen delivery to cardiac muscle due to local myocardial ischemia and the effects of acute hypoxia on brain metabolism. Other important applications of sensitivity analysis include identification of quantitatively relevant pathways and biochemical species within an overall mechanism, when examining the effects of a genetic anomaly or pathological state on energetic system components and whole system behavior.

Radhakrishnan, Krishnan

Preliminary estimates of Gulf Stream characteristics from TOPEX data and a precise gravimetric geoid

TOPEX sea surface height data has been used, with a gravimetric geoid, to calculate sea surface topography across the Gulf Stream. This topography was initially computed for nine tracks on cycles 21 to 29. Due to inaccurate geoid undulations on one track, results for eight tracks are reported. The sea surface topography estimates were used to calculate parameters that describe Gulf Stream characteristics from two models of the Gulf Stream. One model was based on a Gaussian representation of the velocity while the other was a hyperbolic representation of velocity or the sea surface topography. The parameters of the Gaussian velocity model fit were a width parameter, a maximum velocity value, and the location of the maximum velocity. The parameters of the hyperbolic sea surface topography model were the width, the height jump, position, and sea surface topography at the center of the stream. Both models were used for the eight tracks and nine cycles studied. Comparisons were made between the width parameters, the maximum velocities, and the height jumps. Some of the parameter estimates were found to be highly (0.9) correlated when the hyperbolic sea surface topography fit was carried out, but such correlations were reduced for either the Gaussian velocity fits or the hyperbolic velocity model fit. A comparison of the parameters derived from 1-year TOPEX data showed good agreement with values derived by Kelly (1991) using 2.5 years of Geosat data near 38 deg N, 66 deg W longitude. Accuracy of the geoid undulations used in the calculations was of order of +/- 16 cm with the accuracy of a geoid undulation difference equal to +/- 15 cm over a 100-km line in areas with good terrestrial data coverage. This paper demonstrates that our knowledge or geoid undulations and undulation differences, in a portion of the Gulf Stream region, is sufficiently accurate to determine characteristics of the jet when used with TOPEX altimeter data. The method used here has not been shown to be more accurate than methods that average altimeter data to form a reference surface used in analysis to obtain the Gulf Stream characteristics. However, the results show the geoid approach may be used in areas where lack of current meandering reduces the accuracy of the average surface procedure.

Rapp, Richard H.

Stresses in a three-dimensional unidirectional composite containing broken fibers

An approximate solution is developed for the determination of the interlaminar normal and shear stresses in the vicinity of a crack in a three dimensional composite containing unidirectional linearly elastic fibers in an infinite linearly elastic matrix. In order to reduce the complexity of the formulation, certain assumptions are made as to the physically significant stresses to be retained. These simplifications reduce the partial differential equations of elasticity to differential-difference equations which are tractable using Fourier transform techniques. This 'material modeling' approach is in contrast with solutions developed by considering each lamina as a homogeneous, orthotropic layer. The resulting solution does not contain the classical singular stress field for the fibers and the influence of broken fibers on unbroken fibers is felt by a change in stress concentration factors. The matrix stresses however, are unbounded as the fiber spacing vanishes and an equivalent fiber-matrix geometry is proposed which gives the correct singular behavior. The numerical solution is considered in detail and several specific examples are presented. The potential for damaged or debonded zones to be generated by an embedded crack is discussed, and stress concentration factors for fibers near the crack are given. Detailed comparisons are made between the present solution, the analogous two-dimensional problem, and corresponding shear-lag models.

Goree, J. G.