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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Synchronverter-based Control of Multi-Port Autonomous Reconfigurable Solar Plants (MARS)

Control of integrated photovoltaic (PV) plants with energy storage systems (ESSs) has become an important research and development topic in recent times. In this context, a Multi-port Autonomous Reconfigurable Solar (MARS) plant that integrates PV and ESS to alternating current transmission grid and high-voltage direct current (HVdc) link is studied in this paper. With penetration of power electronic based resources in the grid, the grid’s capability to recover from frequency or voltage disturbances are reduced. Therefore, one of the vital objectives of any new grid integrated power electronic resource is to provide advanced control functions like voltage and frequency support to the grid during disturbances. In this research work, a detailed implementation of a synchronverter-based control algorithm of MARS is presented. The proposed control algorithm and the MARS control architecture are evaluated through simulations on PSCAD/EMTDC simulation platform to showcase the performance in different operating conditions. In addition, they are evaluated in Opal-RT offline simulation models which can also be used to perform control-hardware-in-the-loop (cHIL) tests.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali↗

Introducing the 9500 Node Distribution Test System to Support Advanced Power Applications: An Operations-Focused Approach

The 9500 Node Test System is a representative section of distribution power system model developed as a part of the GridAPPS-D™ project, an effort funded by DOE as a part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium (GMLC) program. The test system was developed to fulfill a growing need to represent the rapidly evolving state of electric distribution systems by combining elements of legacy infrastructure systems, modern feeder topologies, and an anticipated future with smart grid technologies. It also provides a network model capable of supporting the simulation of operational scenarios such as the ones in a utility distribution control center. This test system allows the evaluation of the performance of advanced power applications in real-time, such as one that simulates the operations of an Advanced Distribution Management Systems (ADMS), Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems (DERMS), etc. in a Distribution control center. This model is an extension of the widely used IEEE 8500 Node Test Feeder and is currently being validated to become an IEEE test case to help increase adoption and widespread usage among both academia and industry. It is a full-size model representative of a section of a utility’s distribution system with multiple feeders fed from different substations. The model includes multiple distribution circuits, a sub-transmission system, multiple substations, behind the meter customer rooftop photovoltaics (PV), and multiple utility-scale distributed energy resources. To enable accurate simulations of operational scenarios, the 9500 Node Test System is designed to support procedure-based operations, with the ability to realistically demonstrate switching operations, feeder reconfiguration, adjustment of volt-var control equipment, dispatch of distributed generation, and response to planned and unplanned outages. The 9500 Node Test System includes three radial distribution feeders with 12.3 MVA of average load, consisting of both medium voltage and low voltage equipment each supplied by a different distribution substation. The three distribution feeders are connected to each other through Normally-Open switches which can be closed when needed to simulate restoration scenarios due to a fault. One feeder represents today’s grid with low penetration of customer-side renewables. The second represents a potential future grid with microgrids and 100% renewable penetration. The third has no customer generation resources, a district steam plant, and a utility-scale solar farm. The three diverse circuits were created to allow the simulation of both today’s situation as well as potential future scenarios. All three feeders have customers connected by low-voltage secondary triplex lines. This test system meets all requirements outlined in the report for creating a simulation environment that would enable discussion between key technical stakeholders as well as having the potential to accelerate operational application development and their subsequent testing and integration. The new model is a possible representation of what we believe the distribution grid may look like in the future: a high penetration of renewables, reconfigurable radial and mesh topology, numerous DERs, islanded microgrids, and significantly increased data and measurement density. The system supports both the solution of existing and newer algorithms but also enables the evaluation of applications in a realistic operational environment defined by task oriented procedural steps that represent the interaction between the control center operator and field personnel.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Progress in Spacecraft Environment Interactions: International Space Station (ISS) Development and Operations

The set of spacecraft interactions with the space flight environment that have produced the largest impacts on the design, verification, and operation of the International Space Station (ISS) Program during the May 2000 to May 2007 time frame are the focus of this paper. In-flight data, flight crew observations, and the results of ground-based test and analysis directly supporting programmatic and operational decision-making are reported as are the analysis and simulation efforts that have led to new knowledge and capabilities supporting current and future space explorations programs. The specific spacecraft-environment interactions that have had the greatest impact on ISS Program activities during the first several years of flight are: 1) spacecraft charging, 2) micrometeoroids and orbital debris effects, 3) ionizing radiation (both total dose to materials and single event effects [SEE] on avionics), 4) hypergolic rocket engine plume impingement effects, 5) venting/dumping of liquids, 6) spacecraft contamination effects, 7) neutral atmosphere and atomic oxygen effects, 8) satellite drag effects, and 9) solar ultraviolet effects. Orbital inclination (51.6deg) and altitude (nominally between 350 km and 460 km) determine the set of natural environment factors affecting the performance and reliability of materials and systems on ISS. ISS operates in the F2 region of Earth s ionosphere in well-defined fluxes of atomic oxygen, other ionospheric plasma species, solar UV, VUV, and x-ray radiation as well as galactic cosmic rays, trapped radiation, and solar cosmic rays. The micrometeoroid and orbital debris environment is an important determinant of spacecraft design and operations in any orbital inclination. The induced environment results from ISS interactions with the natural environment as well as environmental factors produced by ISS itself and visiting vehicles. Examples include ram-wake effects, hypergolic thruster plume impingement, materials out-gassing, venting and dumping of fluids, and specific photovoltaic (PV) power system interactions with the ionospheric plasma. Vehicle size (L) and velocity (v), combined with the magnitude and direction of the geomagnetic field (B) produce operationally significant magnetic induction voltages (VxB.L) in ISS conducting structure during high latitude flight (>+/- 45deg) during each orbit. In addition, ISS is a large vehicle and produces a deep wake structure from which both ionospheric plasma and neutrals species are largely excluded. ISS must fly in a very limited number of approved flight attitudes, so that exposure of a particular material or system to environmental factors depends upon: 1) location on ISS, 2) ISS flight configuration, 3) ISS flight attitude, and 4) variation of solar exposure (Beta angle), and hence thermal environment, with time. Finally, an induced ionizing radiation environment is produced by trapped radiation and solar/cosmic ray interactions with the relatively massive ISS structural shielding.

Koontz, Steve↗

Stakeholder-guided holistic, Adaptive Framework for enhancing community Energy Resilience (SAFER) (Final Technical Report)

The Stakeholder-guided holistic, Adaptive Framework for enhancing community Energy Resilience (SAFER) project advances resilience science and engineering by addressing challenges in rural Kansas communities where aging infrastructure, extreme weather, and socioeconomic disparities heighten vulnerability to energy disruptions. Traditional approaches often focus on technical performance while overlooking community concerns and priorities. SAFER responds by integrating community perspectives with advanced analytical frameworks to create a holistic model for measuring and improving resilience. Project objectives included developing novel resilience metrics, advancing modeling frameworks that capture interdependencies across infrastructures, and embedding community-centric indicators directly into planning processes for distributed energy resources. The key technical innovations included the creation of self-organizing map (SOM)-based indices for objective resilience quantification, hetero-functional graph theory (HFGT) models linking power, water, transportation, and community assets, and graph neural network (GNN) tools for identifying critical nodes in complex systems. Community-centric energy planning was demonstrated through optimal siting and sizing of (photovoltaic) PV and battery storage, ensuring resilience enhancements also addressed energy burden and energy insecurity. SAFER engaged community partners in Dodge City and Ford County through surveys, focus groups, and workshops, generating more than 600 responses that established baseline measures of energy burden, financial insecurity, and willingness-to-pay to avoid outages. This data, organized in terms of a community capitals framework, informed the development of weighted reliability indices that better reflect community costs than traditional utility metrics. SAFER’s GNN-based critical node identification framework identified expert-labelled critical nodes with over 99% accuracy, while also uncovering additional functionalities essential for proactive resilience planning. The project’s models demonstrated that optimal PV and storage deployment could improve resilience indices by over 11 percent, with dispatch strategies further enhancing outcomes, confirming both the technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of these approaches. Through its combined emphasis on rigorous modeling, community-focused planning, and community engagement, SAFER advances the state of resilience research while delivering direct benefits to rural communities. The project provides tools, guidelines, and resilience heatmaps that help utilities, local governments, and residents better anticipate disruptions, prioritize investments, and strengthen the capacity to withstand and recover from energy-related hazards. Furthermore, the developed HFG and GNN frameworks are designed for transferability, allowing them to be adapted for resilience planning in other communities with minimal retraining. This inductive learning capability provides a scalable pathway to extend the SAFER project’s impact. Thus, creating a foundation for a nationally applicable model of infrastructure resilience. Additionally, the HFG can also be extended to include other FEMA community lifelines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Diagnosis of PV Cell Passivation Degradation Resulting from Hot-Humid, High Voltage Potential Aging

Corrosion of the antireflective coating on the cell ("AR c corrosion") was previously observed in studies using hot-humid test conditions with external high voltage (HV) bias. Because AR c corrosion is not well understood, mini-modules (MiMos) were examined in a comparative experiment using PERC and PERT as well as legacy Al-BSF cells. For separate MiMos with the cell circuit electrical at +1500 V, -1500 V, or unbiased "V oc", test conditions in the comparative study included 60degrees C/60% RH for 96 h, as in IEC TS 62804-1; 70degrees C/70%RH for 200 h; and 85degrees C/85% RH for 200 h. Characterizations at each read point included: camera and electroluminescence (EL) imaging, colorimetry, and I-V curve tracing. Characterizations at the final read point included: SunsVoc; spatially mapping external quantum efficiency (EQE); high resolution: photoluminescence (PL), EL, and dark lock-in thermographic (DLIT) imaging. Forensics were performed on extracted cores, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) and scanning Auger microscopy (SAM). Forensics were also conducted on MiMos (stepped HV aging) and full-sized modules (outdoor aging) from previous studies. AR c corrosion was specifically observed for the glass/encapsulant/cell side of +1500 V (HV+) stressed MiMos, where appearance, color, and reflectance were the characteristics most distinguished relative to simultaneously occurring degradation modes. SEM/EDS and SAM identified conversion of silicon nitride to silicon oxide or hydrous silica, preferentially occurring at the edges and tips of the pyramidal textured cell surface.

aging↗

Annual simulation of photovoltaic retrofits within existing parabolic trough concentrating solar powerplants

Solar power for electricity production comes from either photovoltaics or concentrating solar power plants. The former has seen rapid growth and expansion due to the rapid fall in global prices, while the latter has seen moderate growth due to ability to cheaply store thermal energy for later use. Hybridization, or combining photovoltaics with concentrating solar power represents a potential way for lowering cost while enabling long term storage. Over 5 GW of capacity exist worldwide using parabolic trough style technology for concentrating solar power which presents a unique option for optimization in the form of a photovoltaic retrofit. While it is possible to analyze the performance with detailed physics models, it is necessary to create a model that can handle simulating the plant level performance to fully understand the potential performance. Here, the first utility scale plant level model of a hybrid photovoltaic-concentrating solar power plant is developed. The model is applied to existing concentrating solar power plants around the world utilizing RP-3 mirrors without thermal energy storage to understand the impact on electricity production. Model results indicate that the photovoltaic retrofit can increase yearly electricity production by up to 30% for plants with solar multiples exceeding 1.5, and that increasing the fraction of solar energy reflected further increases the yield. The increased electrical production declines as the plant solar multiple is decreased. The minimum LCOE observed was $0.07/kWh for plants with larger solar multiple and fraction of solar energy reflected to the PV is 50% of the total aperture.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Diagnosis of PV Cell Antireflective Coating Degradation Resulting From Hot-Humid High-Voltage Potential Aging

Corrosion of the antireflective coating on a photovoltaic cell ("ARc corrosion") has previously been observed in studies using hot-humid test conditions with external high-voltage (HV) bias. This study primarily focuses on known vulnerable legacy aluminum back surface field cells in mini-modules (MiMos) put through comparative stepped stress tests. Each cell type had MiMos at +1500 V, -1500 V, or unbiased ("Voc") potential, which were sequentially subjected to test conditions of 60 degrees C/60% relative humidity (RH) for 96 h, as in International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Specification 62804-1; 70 degrees C/70% RH for 200 h; and 85 degrees C/85% RH for 200 h. Characterizations at each step included visual camera and electroluminescence (EL) imaging, colorimetry, and current-voltage curve tracing. Final characterizations included: Suns-Voc, spatial mapping of external quantum efficiency, high-resolution photoluminescence, EL, and dark lock-in thermography imaging. Forensics were performed on extracted cores, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and scanning Auger microscopy (SAM). Forensics were also conducted on MiMos from previous studies that underwent stepped HV aging and separate outdoor aged full-sized modules. ARc corrosion was specifically seen for the glass/encapsulant/cell side of the +1500 V (HV+) stressed MiMos and modules. Appearance, color, and reflectance were the most distinguishing characteristics relative to glass corrosion, gridline corrosion and delamination, and other concurrent degradation modes. SEM/EDS and SAM identified the conversion of silicon nitride to hydrated silica, hydrous silica, or hydrated amorphous silica, which preferentially occurred at the edges and tips of the pyramidal textured cell surface.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Performance of Hybrid Renewable Energy Power System for a Residential Building

Using fossil fuels as the primary way to generate electricity causes a significant effect on the environment. In 2019, more than 64% of the electricity in the United States of America was generated using fossil-fuel resources, while renewable energy (RE) resources contributed to only 17% of the U.S. electricity generation for the same year. Additionally, due to the complex terrain distribution of many states in the U.S., a massive opportunity of utilizing RE resources in rural and remote areas can reduce the cost of electrical grid installation for such areas. In this study, a typical residential building with an average energy utilization of 30.25 kWh/day with a demand peak of 5.34 kW was considered a case study in each state to optimize a hybrid RE system and find the best alternative electrical grid system. This study presents the best configuration between solar and wind energy with different types of energy storage. It was discovered the photovoltaic (PV) solar panels—diesel generators with battery best services in all states. The daily radiation and diesel prices substantially affect the levelized cost of energy (COE) values in each state.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluating the Performance and Reliability of Screen-Printable Fire-Through Copper Paste on PERC Solar Cells

A bifacial silicon heterojunction solar cell demands approximately 210 mg usage of silver paste (9 busbars, 24.5%, bifacial, M6 size wafer). Copper is an excellent alternative to silver: 100x cheaper, similar elecvtrical resistivities, and 1000x more abundant. Successful demonstration of large area selective emitter PERC solar cells using Cu fire-through paste with FF approximately 75% and approximately 19%. Paste chemistry results in oxide-based Cu diffusion barrier, leading to good reliability of the devices: 1000h DHT giving a 3.5% efficiency drop. The additional series resistance still needs to be lowered. Printed and fired cell performance is governed mostly by pFF, especially J02 ; same for DHT degradation. Further improvement in printing and firing optimization for lower series resistance and higher FF.

Ag↗

Influence of Diffuse and Ground-Reflected Irradiance on the Spectral Modeling of Solar Reference Cells

Thermal Energy Storage (TES) is a key component for solar thermal applications to bridge the gap between the demand for thermal energy and the supply of solar energy, whose availability depends on the time of day and season. Thus, cost-effective packed-bed thermal containers filled with a solid storage medium have been proposed for high-temperature sensible heat storage as materials are abundant and relatively cheap. Thus, it is necessary to investigate their performance and temperature profiles during the charge-discharge cycle. Several models are available for this purpose. Typically, the more detailed a model, the greater the computational effort required to solve it, and hence a time-efficient model is needed to prevent excessively long computation times for long-term analysis. At the more basic level, the common Hughes E-NTU model and the less realistic simplified Infinite-NTU model are very important for their less time and computational effort. In this paper, the appropriateness of employing the Infinite-NTU model was evaluated to investigate the performance of a typical and scalable rock-bed TES as a case study. The results presented provide a methodology to quickly test the validity of the model and predict the temperature profile for the case under study. Accordingly, such simple charge-discharge cycle thermal performance predictions are important to plan, design, and rapidly deploy a reliable and economical solar thermal system for the supply of valuable heat to high-temperature demanding applications of power generation and industrial processes as part of a rapid shift towards non-polluting renewable energy. Keywords: Solar Thermal, TES, Packed-bed, NTU model, Temperature profile

PV modeling↗

LDES-Sizing-and-siting-model (Power grid test cases for long-duration energy storage (LDES) siting) [SWR-25-75]

This repository contains code and data for performing a siting analysis of long-duration energy storage (LDES) in the 5-bus and RTS systems using the Sienna suite developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for production cost modeling (PCM). This analysis involves moving the LDES component to different buses in the system, running a simulation, and considering the production cost of the simulation. Different system configurations are also analyzed with these scripts (such as moving load or renewable dispatch generators to different buses) to observe the impacts the system configuration has on optimal siting. This repository contains three sub directories discussed below. Both the 5-bus and RTS systems have two different initial configurations for the renewable energy components in them, one that is predominantly PV-driven and one that is predominantly wind-driven. Sienna suite can be found here: https://github.com/NREL-Sienna

Cole, David [University of Wisconsin]↗

Assessing geothermal/solar hybridization – Integrating a solar thermal topping cycle into a geothermal bottoming cycle with energy storage

Geothermal and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies typically use heat at different temperatures in their commercial deployments. This enables a technically viable hybridization of a solar topping cycle and a geothermal bottoming cycle at locations where both resources are available. In this article, an underperforming geothermal power system based at Burley, Idaho is used as a baseline to investigate the technical and economic potential of such a hybrid cycle. A direct thermal energy storage (TES) system is also integrated to overcome the intermittency of the solar resource. Design and off-design behavior of key components are modelled to simulate the annual performance of the hybrid system on an hourly basis. The sizing of the solar field and thermal storage is investigated and is seen to significantly impact the annual electricity generation and efficiency. Various cost scenarios for the solar field and thermal energy storage are investigated. An economic metric - levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) - is used to optimize the solar field sizing and TES capacity. The hybrid plant converts the additional solar heat input into additional work with an efficiency of 32.9%. Retrofitting a geothermal plant with solar and eight hours of energy storage can achieve an LCOE of 0.136 $/kWhe in current cost scenarios and 0.081 $/kWhe in a future cost reduction scenario. Although the hybrid system cannot directly compete with current PV systems without batteries, it has an LCOE 32% lower than that of a PV-battery system. This paper provides insights into the research and development of the future grid with a high renewable energy penetration and encourages further study of energy hybridization for improved efficiencies and economics.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Ganged-PV System Evaluation

The following report contains data and data summaries collected for the SkySun LLC elevated Ganged PV arrays. These arrays were fabricated as a series of PV panels in various orientations, suspended by cables, at the National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF) at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Starting in February of 2021, Sandia personnel have collected power and accelerometer data for these arrays to assess design and operational efficacy of varying ganged- PV configurations. The purpose of this power data collection was to see how the various array orientations compare in power collection capability depending on the time of day, year, and the specific daily solar direct normal irradiance (DNI). The power data was collected as a measurement of the power output from the various series strings. The project team measured direct current (DC) voltage and current from the respective arrays. The accelerometer data was collected with the purpose of demonstrating potential destructive mode shapes that could take place with each of the arrays when exposed to high winds. This allowed the team to evaluate whether impacts with respect to specific array orientations using suspended cables is a safe design. All data collection was performed during calendar year 2021.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Design/Install Labor Quantification (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report)

The goals of this project were to quantify the rate and/or total expected labor expenditure of engineers designing solar arrays and electricians installing solar across a spectrum of project sizes and configurations. Specifically, procuring and analyzing labor data from solar engineering firms relating to the amount of time it takes an engineer to design a solar project, the amount of time it takes an engineer to perform a wiring or stringing design, the amount of time it takes an electrician to install a solar project and the amount of time it takes electricians to install the strings of a solar array. Then these details could be analyzed to evaluate labor intensity for solar design/installation. These goals were unable to be completed because the participant was unable to collect the necessary data for analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Diagnosis of PV Cell Antireflective Coating Degradation Resulting from Hot-Humid, High Voltage Potential Aging

Corrosion of the antireflective coating on a photovoltaic cell ("ARc corrosion") has previously been observed in studies using hot-humid test conditions with external high-voltage (HV) bias. This study primarily focuses on known vulnerable, legacy aluminum back surface field (Al-BSF) cells in mini-modules (MiMos) put through comparative stepped stress tests. Each cell type had MiMos at +1500 V, -1500 V, or unbiased ("Voc") potential, which were sequentially subjected to test conditions of 60deg C/60% relative humidity (RH) for 96 h, as in International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Technical Specification 62804-1; 70 deg C/70% RH for 200 h; and 85 deg C/85% RH for 200 h. Characterizations at each step included visual camera and electroluminescence (EL) imaging, colorimetry, and current-voltage (I-V) curve tracing. Final characterizations included: Suns-Voc; spatial mapping of external quantum efficiency (EQE); high-resolution photoluminescence (PL), EL, and dark lock-in thermography (DLIT) imaging. Forensics were performed on extracted cores, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and scanning Auger microscopy (SAM). Forensics were also conducted on MiMos from previous studies that underwent stepped HV aging and separate outdoor aged full-sized modules. ARc corrosion was specifically seen for the glass/encapsulant/cell side of the +1500V (HV+) stressed MiMos and modules. Appearance, color, and reflectance were the most distinguishing characteristics relative to glass corrosion, gridline-corrosion and -delamination as well as other concurrent degradation modes. SEM/EDS and SAM identified conversion of silicon nitride to hydrated silica, hydrous silica, or hydrated amorphous silica, which preferentially occurred at the edges and tips of the pyramidal textured cell surface.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quantifying Error in Photovoltaic Installation Metadata: Preprint

In this research, we quantify the level of metadata error for a fleet of 2860 photovoltaic (PV) systems, using metadata values provided by fleet owners. Using satellite imagery and time series analysis techniques available in open-source Python packages Panel-Segmentation and PVAnalytics, respectively, we evaluate the accuracy of PV system metadata such as location, azimuth, tilt, and mounting configuration (fixed tilt vs. tracking). We find that approximately 75% of provided latitude-longitude coordinates are within 190 meters of the actual solar installation. We were unable to link 7.8% of latitude-longitude coordinates to any solar installation via satellite imagery analysis. We evaluate the level of error in owner-provided mounting configuration (fixed tilt vs. single-axis tracking), finding only 8 systems with an incorrect mounting configuration. When evaluating azimuth and tilt parameters, we find that approximately 64% of the data is correct, with data for 860 systems (approximately 30%) not provided by system owners. To illustrate the importance of having correct solar metadata, we evaluate how incorrect metadata affects solar performance estimates by modeling system AC energy output at ground-truth vs. incorrect latitude-longitude coordinates, mounting configurations, and azimuth-tilt configurations. Energy output estimates can vary significantly if incorrect metadata parameters are used, with incorrect mounting configuration leading to the largest discrepancy with over 20% variation in expected energy output.

azimuth↗

Silver-carbon-nanotube composite metallization for increased durability of silicon solar cells against cell cracks

One of the ways to reduce the cost of solar electricity is to reduce the degradation rate of solar modules and extend their lifetime well beyond 30 years. The extended module lifetime translates to increased bankability of utility-scale PV projects. In this work, we specifically address cell-crack-induced degradation by introducing crack-tolerant metallization. Herein, we make use of low-cost, multi-walled carbon nanotubes embedded in commercial screen-printable silver pastes as a highly integratable engineering solution. When the carbon nanotubes are appropriately functionalized and incorporated into commercial silver pastes, the resulting metal contacts on solar cells, after screen-printing and firing, show exceptional fracture toughness. These composite metal contacts possess increased ductility, electrical gap-bridging capability greater than 50 µm, and “self-healing” to regain electrical continuity even after cycles of complete electrical failure under large strain. While providing crack-tolerant mechanical properties, the composite paste delivers similar beginning-of-life cell performance as the conventional silver paste.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗