Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Operational forecasting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,081 records · Page 60
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Implementation of the Land, Atmosphere Near Real-Time Capability for EOS (LANCE)

The past decade has seen a rapid increase in availability and usage of near real-time data from satellite sensors. Applications have demonstrated the utility of timely data in a number of areas ranging from numerical weather prediction and forecasting, to monitoring of natural hazards, disaster relief, agriculture and homeland security. As applications mature, the need to transition from prototypes to operational capabilities presents an opportunity to improve current near real-time systems and inform future capabilities. This paper presents NASA s effort to implement a near real-time capability for land and atmosphere data acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) instruments on the Terra, Aqua, and Aura satellites. Index Terms- Real time systems, Satellite applications

Michael, Karen↗
NASA NTRS2014

Verification of a New NOAA/NSIDC Passive Microwave Sea-Ice Concentration Climate Record

A new satellite-based passive microwave sea-ice concentration product developed for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Climate Data Record (CDR) programme is evaluated via comparison with other passive microwave-derived estimates. The new product leverages two well-established concentration algorithms, known as the NASA Team and Bootstrap, both developed at and produced by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The sea ice estimates compare well with similar GSFC products while also fulfilling all NOAA CDR initial operation capability (IOC) requirements, including (1) self describing file format, (2) ISO 19115-2 compliant collection-level metadata,(3) Climate and Forecast (CF) compliant file-level metadata, (4) grid-cell level metadata (data quality fields), (5) fully automated and reproducible processing and (6) open online access to full documentation with version control, including source code and an algorithm theoretical basic document. The primary limitations of the GSFC products are lack of metadata and use of untracked manual corrections to the output fields. Smaller differences occur from minor variations in processing methods by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (for the CDR fields) and NASA (for the GSFC fields). The CDR concentrations do have some differences from the constituent GSFC concentrations, but trends and variability are not substantially different.

Passive Microwave↗
NASA NTRS2023

LunaNet Position, Navigation, and Timing Services and Signal, Enabling the Future of Lunar Exploration

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group established in 2018 the 3rd edition of the Global Exploration Roadmap (ISECG, 2018) that aims to achieve Mars human surface activities and identifies the exploration of the Moon as a critical intermediate step. A supplement covering updates on surface exploration scenarios was released in 2020 (ISECG, 2020). The Artemis Accords (NASA Artemis, 2020), first signed in October 2020, now includes over two dozen nations, in an agreement on the principles for best practices, including interoperability. September 2022 introduced the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Moon to Mars Objectives highlighting recurring tenets of collaboration with international and industry partners and interoperability, along with infrastructure objectives for Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT). The successful Artemis 1 mission paved the way to the ambitious plans to establish a sustainable human presence on the Moon. Just a few months after Artemis 1 launch (NASA, 2022), iSpace HAKUTO-R Mission1 (iSpace, 2022) launched, being the first-ever commercial mission, launched by a commercial launch service provider, aiming to land on the lunar surface. The NASA Artemis programme plans initial crewed landings and traverses in 2025, supported by the Lunar Gateway, followed by regular launches to build the lunar systems (NASA Artemis Plan, 2020), (NASA, 2022). NASA’s contracts with Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS, (NASA, n.d.)) to deliver science and technology to the Moon, with launches starting in November 2023. The European Space Agency (ESA) Argonaut (ESA Argonaut, 2022) programme plans to have recurrent missions to bring payloads to the lunar surface, supporting lunar exploration. These are just a few examples of planned missions that will target the Earth’s natural satellite in the next decade, with forecasts of tens of missions per year (NSR, 2022), (Euroconsult, 2020). The large number of missions and the complexity of landing and operating are expected to demand a change of paradigm from the current Earth-based communication and navigation services. In recent years, several agencies have proposed to deploy cislunar communication and navigation services to support lunar missions (NASA LCRNS, 2022), (ESA Moonlight, 2022), (JAXA, 2022)). All these proposals seek to deploy service-providing satellites in lunar orbit to ease the user missions’ operations. The PNT services objective is to support all types of lunar users (e.g.: orbiters, landers, ascent vehicles, and surface crew and rovers). At the same time, NASA and ESA initiated an effort to define a common framework to ensure interoperability among different service providers: the LunaNet framework. The LunaNet Interoperability Specification (NASA and ESA, 2023) covers communication, PNT, and auxiliary services, by establishing a common set of requirements to ensure interoperability. This conference contribution will present the LunaNet PNT services, focusing on the Lunar Augmented Navigation Service (LANS) that resembles the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) concept on Earth: constellations of satellites broadcasting a radio navigation signal synchronized to a common reference clock, with augmentations to accommodate users’ needs in an environment away from Earth. This includes a description of the high-level LANS concept and the basic principles defined to ensure interoperability. In addition, it will describe the common S-band PNT Augmented Forward Signal (AFS) and common messages to be adopted for compliance with the LunaNet framework, and the justification of the selected approach.

LunaNet↗
NASA NTRS2023

Lunanet Position, Navigation, and Timing Services and Signals, Enabling the Future of Lunar Exploration

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group established in 2018 the 3rd edition of the Global Exploration Roadmap (ISECG, 2018) that aims to achieve Mars human surface activities and identifies the exploration of the Moon as a critical intermediate step. A supplement covering updates on surface exploration scenarios was released in 2020 (ISECG, 2020). The Artemis Accords (NASA Artemis, 2020), first signed in October 2020, now includes over two dozen nations, in an agreement on the principles for best practices, including interoperability. In September 2022 the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) introduced the Moon to Mars Objectives highlighting recurring tenets of collaboration with international and industry partners and interoperability, along with infrastructure objectives for Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT). The successful Artemis 1 mission paved the way to the ambitious plans to establish a sustainable human presence on the Moon. Just a few months after Artemis 1 launch (NASA, 2022), iSpace HAKUTO-R Mission1 (iSpace, 2022) launched, being the first-ever mission launched by a commercial launch service provider aiming to land on the lunar surface. The NASA Artemis program plans initial crewed landings and surface traverses in 2025, supported by the Lunar Gateway. Regular launches will follow to build the lunar systems for a sustained presence as presented in the Artemis Plan (NASA Artemis Plan, 2020), (NASA, 2022). NASA’s contracts with commercial providers through the Commercial Lunar Payload Services program (CLPS, (NASA, n.d.)) will deliver science and technology demonstration missions to the Moon starting in November 2023. The European Space Agency (ESA) Argonaut (ESA Argonaut, 2022) program plans to have recurrent missions to bring payloads to the lunar surface, supporting lunar exploration. These are just a few examples of planned missions that will target Earth’s natural satellite in the next decade, with forecasts of tens of missions per year (NSR, 2022), (Euroconsult, 2020). The large number of missions and the complexity of landing and operating are expected to demand a change of paradigm from the current Earth-based communication and navigation services, that may be combined with onboard sensors. In recent years, several agencies have proposed to deploy cislunar communication and navigation services to support lunar missions (NASA LCRNS, 2022), (ESA Moonlight, 2022), (JAXA, 2022)). All these proposals seek to deploy service-providing satellites in lunar orbit to ease the user missions’ operations. The PNT services objective is to support all types of lunar users (e.g.: orbiters, landers, ascent vehicles, surface crew, rovers, and deployed science payloads). At the same time, NASA and ESA initiated an effort to define a common framework to ensure interoperability among different service providers: the LunaNet framework. The LunaNet Interoperability Specification (NASA and ESA, 2023) covers communication, PNT, and auxiliary services, by establishing a common set of requirements to ensure interoperability. This conference contribution will present the LunaNet PNT services, focusing on the Lunar Augmented Navigation Service (LANS) that would be provided by a system that resembles the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) concept on Earth: constellations of satellites broadcasting a radio navigation signal synchronized to a common reference clock, with augmentations to accommodate users’ needs in an environment away from Earth. This paper includes a description of the high-level LANS concept, and the basic principles defined to ensure interoperability. In addition, it will describe the common S-band PNT Augmented Forward Signal (AFS) and common messages to be adopted for compliance with the LunaNet framework, and the justification of the selected approach.

LunaNet↗
NASA NTRS2002

Impact of Quikscat Data on Numerical Weather Prediction

One of the important applications of satellite surface wind observations is to increase the accuracy of weather analyses and forecasts. Satellite surface wind data can improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts by contributing to improved analyses of the surface wind field and air sea fluxes. Through the data assimilation process,these data can also improve atmospheric mass and motion fields in the free atmosphere above the surface. The SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikScat satellite was launched in July 1999 and represented a dramatic departure in design from the other scatterometer instruments launched during the past decade (ERS-1,2 and NSCAT). The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) was the first data assimilation center to assimilate QuikScat Seawinds data and evaluate their impact on numerical weather prediction. Following the launch of QuikScat, a detailed evaluation of the initial surface wind data sets was performed as part of a collaborative project between the Environmental Modeling Center of NCEP, NESDIS and the DAO. More recently, the impact of Quikscat data was evaluated in detailed experiments using the NCEP operational data assimilation system. As a result of the beneficial impact obtained, NCEP began operational utilization of Quikscat data. Results from these experiments as well as recent DAO assimilation experiments showing the impact of Quikscat data on stratospheric analyses and forecasts will be presented at the meeting.

Atlas, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2008

Performance of a Local Mesoscale Model with Data Denial

Forecasters at the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) use observations from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) wind tower network and daily rawinsonde observations (RAOB) to issue and verify wind advisories, watches, and warnings for operations. They are also used by the Spaceflight Meteorology Group and Melbourne, Florida National Weather Service to initialize locally run mesoscale models. Due to impending budget cuts, some or all of the mainland wind towers and RAOBs may be eliminated, The loss of these data may significantly impact the forecast capability of the 45 WS and SMG. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to conduct an objective independent modeling study to determine how important these observations are to the accuracy of the model output used by the forecasters as input to their forecasts. To accomplish this, the AMU performed a sensitivity study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run with and without KSC/CCAFS wind tower and CCAFS RAOB observations and assessed the accuracy of model forecasts by comparing them to the observations.

Watson, Leela↗
NASA NTRS2011

Medical Updates Number 5 to the International Space Station Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) Model Using the Integrated Medical Model

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project has been developing a probabilistic risk assessment tool, the IMM, to help evaluate in-flight crew health needs and impacts to the mission due to medical events. This package is a follow-up to a data package provided in June 2009. The IMM currently represents 83 medical conditions and associated ISS resources required to mitigate medical events. IMM end state forecasts relevant to the ISS PRA model include evacuation (EVAC) and loss of crew life (LOCL). The current version of the IMM provides the basis for the operational version of IMM expected in the January 2011 timeframe. The objectives of this data package are: 1. To provide a preliminary understanding of medical risk data used to update the ISS PRA Model. The IMM has had limited validation and an initial characterization of maturity has been completed using NASA STD 7009 Standard for Models and Simulation. The IMM has been internally validated by IMM personnel but has not been validated by an independent body external to the IMM Project. 2. To support a continued dialogue between the ISS PRA and IMM teams. To ensure accurate data interpretation, and that IMM output format and content meets the needs of the ISS Risk Management Office and ISS PRA Model, periodic discussions are anticipated between the risk teams. 3. To help assess the differences between the current ISS PRA and IMM medical risk forecasts of EVAC and LOCL. Follow-on activities are anticipated based on the differences between the current ISS PRA medical risk data and the latest medical risk data produced by IMM.

Butler, Doug↗
NASA NTRS2006

Time Relevance of Convective Weather Forecast for Air Traffic Automation

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is handling nearly 120,000 flights a day through its Air Traffic Management (ATM) system and air traffic congestion is expected to increse substantially over the next 20 years. Weather-induced impacts to throughput and efficiency are the leading cause of flight delays accounting for 70% of all delays with convective weather accounting for 60% of all weather related delays. To support the Next Generation Air Traffic System goal of operating at 3X current capacity in the NAS, ATC decision support tools are being developed to create advisories to assist controllers in all weather constraints. Initial development of these decision support tools did not integrate information regarding weather constraints such as thunderstorms and relied on an additional system to provide that information. Future Decision Support Tools should move towards an integrated system where weather constraints are factored into the advisory of a Decision Support Tool (DST). Several groups such at NASA-Ames, Lincoln Laboratories, and MITRE are integrating convective weather data with DSTs. A survey of current convective weather forecast and observation data show they span a wide range of temporal and spatial resolutions. Short range convective observations can be obtained every 5 mins with longer range forecasts out to several days updated every 6 hrs. Today, the short range forecasts of less than 2 hours have a temporal resolution of 5 mins. Beyond 2 hours, forecasts have much lower temporal. resolution of typically 1 hour. Spatial resolutions vary from 1km for short range to 40km for longer range forecasts. Improving the accuracy of long range convective forecasts is a major challenge. A report published by the National Research Council states improvements for convective forecasts for the 2 to 6 hour time frame will only be achieved for a limited set of convective phenomena in the next 5 to 10 years. Improved longer range forecasts will be probabilistic as opposed to the deterministic shorter range forecasts. Despite the known low level of confidence with respect to long range convective forecasts, these data are still useful to a DST routing algorithm. It is better to develop an aircraft route using the best information available than no information. The temporally coarse long range forecast data needs to be interpolated to be useful to a DST. A DST uses aircraft trajectory predictions that need to be evaluated for impacts by convective storms. Each time-step of a trajectory prediction n&s to be checked against weather data. For the case of coarse temporal data, there needs to be a method fill in weather data where there is none. Simply using the coarse weather data without any interpolation can result in DST routes that are impacted by regions of strong convection. Increasing the temporal resolution of these data can be achieved but result in a large dataset that may prove to be an operational challenge in transmission and loading by a DST. Currently, it takes about 7mins retrieve a 7mb RUC2 forecast file from NOAA at NASA-Ames Research Center. A prototype NCWF6 1 hour forecast is about 3mb in size. A Six hour NCWFG forecast with a 1hr forecast time-step will be about l8mb (6 x 3mb). A 6 hour NCWF6 forecast with a l5min forecast time-step will be about 7mb (24 x 3mb). Based on the time it takes to retrieve a 7mb RUC2 forecast, it will take approximately 70mins to retrieve a 6 hour NCWF forecast with 15min time steps. Until those issues are addressed, there is a need to develop an algorithm that interpolates between these temporally coarse long range forecasts. This paper describes a method of how to use low temporal resolution probabilistic weather forecasts in a DST. The beginning of this paper is a description of some convective weather forecast and observation products followed by an example of how weather data are used by a DST. The subsequent sections will describe probabilistic forecasts followed by a descrtion of a method to use low temporal resolution probabilistic weather forecasts by providing a relevance value to these data outside of their valid times.

Chan, William N.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Assimilation of SeaWinds Scatterometer Data in the GEOS Data Assimilation System

The first SeaWinds scatterometer was launched in to space aboard the Quikscat satellite on June 19, 1999 at 7:15 p.m. PDT. Flying in a near polar orbit 800 km above the earth's surface, SeaWinds uses an advanced scatterometer design to measure surface wind velocity over 90 percent of the ice free oceans ever 24 hours. This first SeaWinds mission is designed to replace the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) which ceased providing wind velocity data when the ADEOS I satellite failed. A second SeaWinds is scheduled to be launched late in 2000 aboard ADEOS II. Previous scatterometer assimilation experiments conducted by the NASA Data Assimilation Office, using both ERS and NSCAT wind observations, have demonstrated considerable potential for this type of data to improve both atmospheric analyses and forecasts, however much of the smaller scale information content of the scatterometer data could not be taken into account in the early coarse resolution versions of the Goddard (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS) or in operational data assimilation systems. In this paper, we will describe data assimilation experiments in which the new higher resolution versions of the GOES DAS are used to assimilate SeaWinds scatterometer winds. Following a brief discussion of the SeaWinds design and the methodology used to assimilate scatterometer data in the GOES DAS, the quality of the SeaWinds data and the impact of SeaWinds on GOES analyses and forecasts at different resolutions will be presented.

Atlas, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1977

The promise of air cargo-system aspects and vehicle design

A review of the current operation of the air cargo system is presented and the prospects for the future are discussed. Attention is given to air cargo demand forecasts, the economics of air cargo transport, the development of an integrated air cargo system, and the evolution of airfreighter design. Particular emphasis is placed on the span-distributed load concept, examining the Boeing, Douglas, and Lockheed spanloaders.

Whitehead, A. H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Survey: Automated Field Operations and Services (AFOS)

The National Weather Service (NWS) is currently implementing a program for improving operations through automation of routine functions, improved communications capability, and improved management and presentation of data. The program, designated as Automation of Field Operations and Services (AFOS), uses high-speed data circuits, minicomputers, and dynamic display devices to rapidly collect, disseminate, and present data to forecasters and users on both a broadcast and a request basis. The initial system will be configured to serve facilities within the continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, with eventual expansion to provide international capability. This report discusses AFOS users, functions, and network and site configurations. The sections discuss current and future capability and workload in terms of the 10 data systems elements designated by NASA.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1979

Aircraft icing: Introduction

The objectives of the Workshop were as follows: (1) to assess the current understanding of fixed wing and rotorcraft operational icing environments and problems (2) to evaluate facilities requirements for R&D and certification purposes (3) to examine means of improving icing forecasts (4) to identify shortcomings in aeronautical icing knowledge which can be alleviated by new research and instrumentation development.

Enders, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Geophysical forecasting at AFGWC

Methods for forecasting the state of the space environment, Sun, interplanetary field, magnetosphere, and ionosphere are discussed. Areas requiring scientific advancements to support the increasing operational requirements of systems that use or are affected by the environment above 50 km are identified.

Thompson, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Forecasting trends in NASA flight software development tools

The experience gained in the design and development of Shuttle flight and ground support embedded software systems along with projections of increasing role and size of software in the proposed Space Station and other future NASA projects provides the basis for forecasting substantial changes in the tools and methodologies by which embedded software systems are developed and acquired. Similar changes in software architectures and operator interfaces will lead to substantial changes in the approach and techniques involved in software test and system integration. Increasing commonality among different flight systems and between flight and supporting ground systems is projected, along with a more distributed approach to software acquisition in highly complex projects such as Space Station.

Garman, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Predictability in the extended range

This paper describes the results of extended range predictability experiments using an efficient two-level spherical quasi-geostrophic model. The experiments have an initial rms doubling time of about two days. This growth rate, along with an initial error of about one-half the initial error of present operational models, produces an rms error equal to the climatological rms error and a correlation of 0.5 on about day 12 of the forecast. On the largest scales, this limiting point is reached shortly thereafter. The error continues to grow at a decreasing rate until at about 30 days the forecast skill is extremely small and comparable to the skill of a persistence forecast. Various time averages at various lags are examined for skill in the extended range. Filters that weighted most strongly in the initial forecast days provide increased skill.

Roads, John O.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A snow wetness retrieval algorithm for SAR

The objectives of this study are: (1) to evaluate the backscattering signals response to snow wetness; and (2) to develop an algorithm for snow wetness measurement using C-band polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR). In hydrological investigations, modeling and forecasting of snowmelt runoff requires information about snowpack properties and their spatial variability. In particular, timely measurement of snow parameters is needed for operational hydrology. The liquid water content of snowpack is one of the important parameters. Active microwave sensors are highly sensitive to liquid water in the snowpack because of the large dielectric contrast between ice and water in the microwave spectrum. They are not affected by weather and have a spatial resolution compatible with the topographic variation in alpine regions. However, a quantitative algorithm for retrieval snow wetness has not yet been developed.

Shi, Jian-Cheng↗
NASA NTRS2000

NOAA-L

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have jointly developed a valuable series of polar-orbiting Earth environmental observation satellites since 1978. These satellites provide global data to NOAA's short- and long-range weather forecasting systems. The system consists of two polar-orbiting satellites known as the Advanced Television Infrared Observation Satellites (TIROS-N) (ATN). Operating as a pair, these satellites ensure that environmental data, for any region of the Earth, is no more than six hours old. These polar-orbiting satellites have not only provided cost-effective data for very immediate and real needs but also for extensive climate and research programs. The weather data (including images seen on television news programs) has afforded both convenience and safety to viewers throughout the world. The satellites also support the SARSAT (Search and Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking) part of the COSPAS-SARSAT constellation. Russia provides the COSPAS (Russian for Space Systems for the Search of Vessels in Distress) satellites. The international COSPAS-SARSAT system provides for the detection and location of emergency beacons for ships, aircraft, and people in distress and has contributed to the saving of more than 10,000 lives since its inception in 1982.

McCain, Harry G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

SIAM-SERVIR: An Environmental Monitoring and Decision Support System for Mesoamerica

In 2002/2003 NASA, the World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) joined with the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD) to develop an advanced decision support system for Mesoamerica (named SERVIR) as part of the Mesoamerican Environmental Information System (SIAM). Mesoamerica, composed of the seven Central American countries and the five southernmost states of Mexico, make up only a small fraction of the world's land surface. However, the region is home to seven to eight percent of the planet's biodiversity (14 biosphere reserves, 31 Ramsar sites, 8 world heritage sites, 589 protected areas) and 45 million people including more than 50 different ethnic groups. Today Mesoamerica's biological and cultural diversity is severely threatened by extensive deforestation, illegal logging, water pollution, and uncontrolled slash and burn agriculture. Additionally, Mesoamerica's distinct geology and geography result in disproportionate vulnerability to natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, drought, and volcanic eruptions. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, together with the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and the SIAM-SERVIR partners are developing state-of-the-art decision support tools for environmental monitoring as well as disaster prevention and mitigation in Mesoamerica. These partners are contributing expertise in space-based observation with information management technologies and intimate knowledge of local ecosystems to create a system that is being used by scientists, educators, and policy makers to monitor and forecast ecological changes, respond to natural disasters and better understand both natural and human induced effects. In its first year of development and operation, the SIAM-SERVIR project has already yielded valuable information on Central American fires, weather conditions, and the first ever real-time data on red tides. This paper presents the progress thus far in the development of SIAM-SERVIR and the plans for the future.

Irwin, D. E.↗