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Kim, Hyojin↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Model prediction”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Turbulence-parameter estimation for current-energy converters using surrogate model optimization
Surrogate models maximize information utility by building predictive models in place of computational or experimentally expensive model runs. Marine hydrokinetic current energy converters require large-domain simulations to estimate array efficiencies and environmental impacts. Meso-scale models typically represent turbines as actuator discs that act as momentum sinks and sources of turbulence and its dissipation. An OpenFOAM model was developed where actuator disc k-ε turbulence was characterized using an approach developed for flows through vegetative canopies. Turbine-wake data from laboratory flume experiments collected at two influent turbulence intensities were used to calibrate parameters in the turbulence-source terms in the k-ε equations. Additionally, parameter influences on longitudinal wake profiles were estimated using Gaussian process regression with subsequent optimization minimizing the objective function within 3.1% of those obtained using the full model representation, but for 74% of the computational cost (far fewer model runs). This framework facilitates more efficient parameterization of the turbulence-source equations using turbine-wake data.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Source Characterization of the Declared North Korean Nuclear Tests From Regional Distance Coda Wave Spectral Ratios
Abstract Seismic observations of underground nuclear explosions provide crucial data on source yield and depth that cannot easily be estimated from other geophysical methods. However, it is difficult to obtain reliable yield estimates for test sites for which we do not have direct seismic calibration experiments. To obtain source information from uncalibrated sites and paths, local and regional seismic records of six, proximal, declared underground nuclear explosions in North Korea are used to compute spectral ratios of narrow‐band waveform envelopes of body‐wave coda that remove path and site effects to reveal precise, relative source moment. The yields of these explosions are obtained from the observed source ratios by simultaneously fitting the classical source model of Mueller and Murphy (1971), https://doi.org/10.1785/bssa0610061675 to all event pairs. The source model provides an impressive fit to the observations considering that the P phase coda derived source spectral ratios did not require a prior knowledge of the source or regionally calibrated corrections to be applied to the data. However, the observed corner frequencies from S wave coda spectral ratios are lower than the source model predictions, but are well fit by models calculated using the corner frequency consistent with the Fisk conjecture. The results presented here provide novel constraints on the spectral distributions of the energy radiated by the sources of the DPRK test series, and allows for an independent evaluation of existing estimated source model parameters.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
An experimental and computational study of thin-layer Rayleigh–Taylor instability development during deceleration with and without an externally applied magnetic field
The importance of mitigating the Rayleigh–Taylor instability (RTI) in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) is critical to successfully achieve high gain fusion yield. Consequently, understanding the seed mechanisms of RTI and the potential evolution of RTI in ICF relevant conditions is crucial. Single feature perturbations consistently demonstrate non-linear RTI evolution, for which an experimental platform on OMEGA-EP is developed. Manufacturing defects introduced into the target design require exploration of unanticipated changes to RTI development and an identification of targets that will still render quantifiable physics results. Consequently, it is presented that the inherent 3D nature of experimental targets necessitates 3D modeling for accurate design work and predictive modeling of experimental targets, especially when high resolution imaging diagnostics, like Fresnel Zone Plates, are utilized. A study of the morphology of the RTI evolution due to changing initial conditions and the presence of an externally applied magnetic field are also explored. Experimental data show thin-layer RTI morphology comparable to resistive magneto hydrodynamic 3D results. A discussion on the impacts of an externally applied magnetic field makes the case for continued efforts to observe a magnetic field's impact on RTI morphology.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Inter-ELM pedestal turbulence dynamics dependence on q 95 and temperature gradient
A series of dedicated experiments from DIII-D tokamak provide spatially and temporally resolved measurements of electron density and temperature, and multiscale and multichannel fluctuations over a wide range of conditions. Measurements of long wavelength density fluctuations in the type-I ELMing H-mode pedestal routinely revealed a coexistence of multiple instabilities that exhibit dramatic different dynamic behaviors as q 95 and temperature gradient are varied, apparently responsible for limiting pedestal temperature profiles. Two distinct frequency bands of density fluctuations are modulated with ELM cycle with frequency above 200kHz propagating in the electron diamagnetic direction in the lab frame (electron mode) and below 200kHz propagating in the ion diamagnetic direction (ion mode). The electron mode amplitude peaks near the electron temperature gradient region and increases with q 95 which seems to be correlated with the increased χ e at higher q 95 , similar to the characteristics expected for Micro-tearing Mode (MTM). At higher q 95 , during the inter-ELM period, the ion mode decays at later phase of the ELM cycle. Consistently, the poloidal correlation length of the ion mode is also found to reduce which suggests the possible E×B flow shear suppression of ion mode at later phase of the ELM cycle as the Er well recovers. In contrast, the electron mode grows during the ELM cycle and reaches saturation at around 50-60% of ELM period. Linear gyrokinetic simulations find the MTMs as the most unstable mode in the pedestal electron temperature gradient region. The higher q 95 and lower magnetic shear destabilize MTMs. These observations provide key insights of the underlying physics of multifield properties and rich dataset of experimental 'fingerprints' that enable new tests of the theoretical pedestal models and lead to developing a predictive model for pedestal formation on ITER and future burning plasma experiments.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Predicting the Cetane Number, Sooting Tendency, and Energy Density of Terpene Fuel Additives
Abstract Discovering renewable fuels and fuel additives is paramount in reducing carbon emissions from internal combustion engines. Terpenes, a group of compounds that can be synthesized from plant matter and microorganisms, have gained significant interest in recent years as promising candidates for fuels/additives. Terpenes are a diverse class of compounds that contain rings and methyl branches, resulting in high energy densities and optimal cold weather behavior. Their variation in bond order, carbon chains, and functional groups lead to varying degrees of soot formation and performance in existing engines. The present work leverages predictive models, namely artificial neural networks, to predict the cetane number (CN), sooting tendency (quantified with yield sooting index, YSI), and energy density (quantified with lower heating value, LHV) of terpenes and hydrogenated terpenes whose sooting propensities were previously determined through experimental means. Predicted sooting propensities of these terpenes are compared with experimental values, and predicted cetane numbers and energy densities are used to comment on the compounds’ ability to act as fuels/additives. Expected prediction errors for CN, YSI, and LHV, defined by blind test set median absolute error, are within 5.56 cetane units, 3.63 yield sooting index units, and 0.77 MJ/kg respectively. Additionally, the present work investigates a variety of correlation/dependence metrics for property-property relationships, furthering our understanding of how combustion-relevant properties are related.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Long-Term Vehicle Speed Prediction via Historical Traffic Data Analysis for Improved Energy Efficiency of Connected Electric Vehicles
Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) are expected to provide enhanced safety, mobility, and energy efficiency. While abundant evidence has been accumulated showing substantial energy saving potentials of CAVs through eco-driving, traffic condition prediction has remained to be the main challenge in capitalizing the gains. The coupled power and thermal subsystems of CAVs necessitate the use of different speed preview windows for effective and integrated power and thermal management. Real-time vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications can provide an accurate speed prediction over a short prediction horizon (e.g., 30 s to 60 s), but not for a long range (e.g., over 180 s). Therefore, advanced approaches are required to develop detailed speed prediction for robust optimization-based energy management of CAVs. This paper presents an integrated speed prediction framework based on historical traffic data classification and real-time V2I communications for efficient energy management of electrified CAVs. The proposed framework provides multi-range speed predictions with different fidelity over short and long horizons. The proposed multi-range speed prediction is integrated with an economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the battery thermal management (BTM) of connected and automated electric vehicles (EVs). The simulation results over real-world urban driving cycles confirm the enhanced prediction performance of the proposed data classification strategy over a long prediction horizon. Despite the uncertainty in long-range CAVs’ speed predictions, the vehicle-level simulation results show that 14% and 19% energy savings can be accumulated sequentially through eco-driving and BTM optimization (eco-cooling), respectively, when compared with normal driving (i.e., human driver) and conventional BTM strategy.
Engineering↗
Null Space Monte Carlo Evaluation of the Plateau to River Model
The Plateau to River Groundwater Model (P2R Model) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1-1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model provides a computational framework to simulate the F&T of contaminants in groundwater associated with the 200-PO-1, 200-UP-1, 200-BP-5, and 200-ZP-1 Groundwater Operable Units (OUs) in the Hanford Site Central Plateau. In addition, the model includes adjacent areas and facilities (e.g., the State Approved Land Disposal Site). Intended and anticipated uses of the model include calculating water levels, hydraulic gradients, and groundwater flows throughout the model domain (encompassing the 200 West and 200 East Areas) for use in subsequent F&T calculations for contaminants of concern and developing scale-appropriate, telescopic-mesh refinement models for detailed evaluation of areas within the model domain where required. The overall objective of the modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed remedial action decisions based on descriptions of current and expected future contaminant concentrations in groundwater at decision points within the OU boundaries. The objective for the model development phase is to create a common modeling platform that can be used for investigations of the Central Plateau groundwater OUs and areas downgradient toward the Columbia River. The P2R Model calibration to historical data observed at the Hanford Site is documented in CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3. The purpose of this environmental calculation is to describe a null space Monte Carlo (NSMC) evaluation was conducted with the historic calibration of the P2R model. Use of numerical groundwater models is always accompanied with uncertainty in the results produced by a model because models are approximations of reality. Thus, by definition, lack the detail to fully represent observed behavior. Use of numerical techniques, such as a NSMC analysis, can help in identifying and quantifying the potential uncertainties associated with a numerical model such as the P2R Model. Use of the NSMC approach results in 100 groundwater flow models that are variants of the calibrated P2R Model. These variant models can be used to evaluate uncertainty in model predictions made by the calibrated P2R Model for other analyses. A secondary purpose of the environmental calculation is to establish these variant models for use with other applications.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Eddy Current Flow Meter Measurements and Modeling Validation
The goal of the eddy current flow meter (ECFM) is to monitor velocities and temperatures of conductive liquid metals. The ECFM can also detect voids in two-phase liquid metal flows. Measurement of these flows can greatly improve the accuracy of the empirical formulas used for fluid dynamics near the reactor core and aid in mapping any non-uniformities in fluid flow such as estimates of temperature and phase. While the eventual goal is to develop the ECFM for the liquid sodium surrounding the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) core, this report focuses on modeling and experimental validation of ECFM for a moving solid test rod and for liquid mercury in the Target Test Facility (TTF) flow loop to better understand and further develop ECFM measurement capabilities by validating model predictions with benchmark experiments. Eventually the models could be used to design and optimize future ECFMs for specific applications such as monitoring flow within the VTR pool.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Scalable Enrichment of 48 Ca at the Solid/liquid Interface by Chemical and Electrochemical Methods
This award targets to develop methods to enrich 48 Ca, which is a critical isotope for synthesizing superheavy elements and testing the standard model through neutrinoless double beta decay. The team first tested chemical exchange-based separation between solids and liquids, which is based on the free energy change due to the different vibrational frequencies caused by Ca isotopes in a material. However, the separation factor (alpha), which is defined as the ratio of 40 Ca/ 48 Ca ratios in the two phases, only reach ~1.01. The team then developed liquid centrifugation-based isotope separation, where a Ca salt aqueous solution is centrifuged at a speed of ~60 kRPM, and 48 Ca is enriched at the bottom of a centrifuge tube due to its larger mass. A high α of ~1.2-1.4 is achieved for 40 Ca/ 48 Ca at 40 °C. This method is further approved to be generic for any isotope that can be dissolved in a liquid solution or form liquid chemicals near room temperature. The experimental results also align well with modeling prediction. The team further develop a model to evaluate isotope separation in countercurrent liquid centrifugation. The team found that the countercurrent configuration can also enhance isotope separation in liquids, similar with gas centrifugation, which boost separation for isotopes which are difficult to be gasified near room temperature.
07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
Developing Data-Driven Synthetic Infrastructure Models for Resilience Analysis
Research on infrastructure resilience has produced promising methods to simulate and optimize complex networks to improve performance. However, restrictions on sharing infrastructure models and the steep cost of developing and maintaining infrastructure models presents a roadblock to adoption. To overcome this limitation, this research focuses on methods to create data-driven infrastructure models that will help improve infrastructure resilience and security. The analysis couples incomplete utility data, geospatial data, machine learning, and synthetic network generation methods to rapidly develop and update infrastructure models. The methods are validated using realistic utility models and site-specific data, with a focus on Puerto Rico due to its unique infrastructure challenges and available data. This research highlights promising opportunities for the use of synthetic network generation and machine learning to create infrastructure models when very little data is available. Results demonstrate that hybrid methods, which combine sparse utility data with synthetic models, can enhance model accuracy, and machine learning can predict model attributes using training data from other models. However, the complexity of infrastructure systems means that even minor changes in network connectivity can significantly impact simulation results. Resilience analysis using synthetic infrastructure models shows that while some system behaviors are preserved, the magnitude of disruptions may not be accurately represented, indicating the need for more research and validation before using synthetic models for critical infrastructure investment decisions. The framework outlined in this report represents a significant advance to infrastructure model development and could be applied to additional domains and sites. Future research will continue to streamline and validate methods to help reduce roadblocks to resilience analysis.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
HT Model Dataset
This website contains the dataset that was used for writing the manuscript "HT Model: Using the Molecular Transformer for predicting hydrotreating reactions" (PNNL-SA-186589) The dataset includes a collection of hydrotreating reactions compiled from 41 peer-reviewed literature sources. These sources contain experimental data related to hydrotreating reactions. These reactions involve the reaction of chemical compounds with hydrogen gas in the presence of a catalyst to remove heteroatoms or to convert specific functional groups. The dataset contains reactions both with and without reaction conditions. Reaction conditions refer to the specific parameters under which the reaction takes place, such as temperature and pressure. For each reaction, the dataset includes both SMILES and SELFIES representations. SMILES (Simplified Molecular Input Line Entry System) and SELFIES (SELF-referencIng Embedded Strings) are two popular notations used to represent chemical structures in a compact and standardized format. The dataset was created with the aim of training a predictive model, specifically using the Molecular Transformer architecture.
bioprocessing, hydrotreating, deep learning algori↗
IceCube Search for Neutrino Emission from X-Ray Bright Seyfert Galaxies
The recent IceCube detection of TeV neutrino emission from the nearby active galaxy NGC 1068 suggests that active galactic nuclei (AGNs) could make a sizable contribution to the diffuse flux of astrophysical neutrinos. The absence of TeV γ-rays from NGC 1068 indicates neutrino production in the vicinity of the supermassive black hole, where the high radiation density leads to γ-ray attenuation. Therefore, any potential neutrino emission from similar sources is not expected to correlate with high-energy γ-rays. Disk-corona models predict neutrino emission from Seyfert galaxies to correlate with keV X-rays because they are tracers of coronal activity. Using through-going track events from the Northern Sky recorded by IceCube between 2011 and 2021, we report results from a search for individual and aggregated neutrino signals from 27 additional Seyfert galaxies that are contained in the Swift's Burst Alert Telescope AGN Spectroscopic Survey. Besides the generic single power law, we evaluate the spectra predicted by the disk-corona model assuming stochastic acceleration parameters that match the measured flux from NGC 1068. Assuming all sources to be intrinsically similar to NGC 1068, our findings constrain the collective neutrino emission from X-ray bright Seyfert galaxies in the northern sky, but, at the same time, show excesses of neutrinos that could be associated with the objects NGC 4151 and CGCG 420-015. These excesses result in a 2.7σ significance with respect to background expectations.
Abbasi, R. [Loyola University, Chicago, IL (United↗
Multi-range vehicle speed prediction using vehicle connectivity for enhanced energy efficiency of vehicles
An integrated speed prediction framework based on historical traffic data mining and real-time V2I communications for CAVs. The present framework provides multi-horizon speed predictions with different fidelity over short and long horizons. The present multi-horizon speed prediction is integrated with an economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the battery thermal management (BTM) of connected and automated electric vehicles (EVs) as a case study. The simulation results over real-world urban driving cycles confirm the enhanced prediction performance of the present data mining strategy over long prediction horizons. Despite the uncertainty in long-range CAV speed predictions, the vehicle level simulation results show that 14% and 19% energy savings can be accumulated sequentially through eco-driving and BTM optimization (eco-cooling), respectively, when compared with normal-driving and conventional BTM strategy.
Amini, Mohammad Reza↗
Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multimodel Seasonal Skill Comparison
This study quantifies the state of the art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multimodel dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–20 for predictions of pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on 1 June, 1 July, 1 August, and 1 September. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multimodel median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least 3 months in advance.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Collaborative Distribution System Restoration Planning and Real-Time Dispatch Considering Behind-the-Meter DERs
Modern distribution systems are becoming more resilient against power outages thanks to the flexible generation capacity provided by the increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs). Compared to utility-scale DERs, which can be directly controlled by system operators, small-scale, behind-the-meter DERs are much more difficult to coordinate despite being the vast majority. Two major obstacles to the implementation of DERs for service restoration are the coordination of behind-the-meter DERs and the management of uncertainty. In this paper, a novel distribution system restoration strategy is proposed to overcome these two obstacles. The flexibility of be-hind-the-meter DERs is quantified and integrated into the restoration planning models within a hierarchical structure. The model predictive control technique is employed to enable adaptive restoration planning solution adjustments to accommodate fault scenarios and forecast errors. Besides, real-time power dispatch models are proposed to maintain power balance using available DER capability. Comprehensive integration of adaptive restoration planning schemes and real-time dispatch results are achieved through a collaborative restoration framework. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed restoration strategy is verified through a modified IEEE 123-bus system and a real-world utility system.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Multi-Fidelity Modeling and Control for Building Temperature Control
The ability to control energy loads such as a building's heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system can help facilitate increased penetration of variable renewable energy sources into the electric grid. To be able to control these HVAC systems more effectively, detailed simulations of the corresponding building physics is becoming increasingly important. These detailed simulations can be complex, nonlinear, and can require immense computational power when used in an advanced control method such as model predictive control (MPC), prompting the need to explore less computationally intensive strategies. In this work, a multi-fidelity approach is proposed to combine samples from a complex, high-fidelity model with a simple, low-fidelity model within the MPC control loop. More specifically, the parameters of a reduced-order, linear building model are periodically updated with knowledge from its high-fidelity counterpart - an EnergyPlus model - in an online fashion using a Gaussian Process surrogate model. Hence, highly accurate predictions of current and future conditions in a building are maintained with a substantially reduced computational burden compared to using the high-fidelity models alone. In other words, this linear parameter varying model preserves the low computational requirements of a low-order linear model while accurately modeling a building's dynamics. This allows a building controller to take highly informed actions without requiring a large computational budget.
building modeling↗
Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases
Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.
CFD↗