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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,081 records · Page 60
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Advancing Data Assimilation in Operational Hydrologic Forecasting: Progresses, Challenges, and Emerging Opportunities

Data assimilation (DA) holds considerable potential for improving hydrologic predictions as demonstrated in numerous research studies. However, advances in hydrologic DA research have not been adequately or timely implemented in operational forecast systems to improve the skill of forecasts for better informed real-world decision making. This is due in part to a lack of mechanisms to properly quantify the uncertainty in observations and forecast models in real-time forecasting situations and to conduct the merging of data and models in a way that is adequately efficient and transparent to operational forecasters. The need for effective DA of useful hydrologic data into the forecast process has become increasingly recognized in recent years. This motivated a hydrologic DA workshop in Delft, the Netherlands in November 2010, which focused on advancing DA in operational hydrologic forecasting and water resources management. As an outcome of the workshop, this paper reviews, in relevant detail, the current status of DA applications in both hydrologic research and operational practices, and discusses the existing or potential hurdles and challenges in transitioning hydrologic DA research into cost-effective operational forecasting tools, as well as the potential pathways and newly emerging opportunities for overcoming these challenges. Several related aspects are discussed, including (1) theoretical or mathematical aspects in DA algorithms, (2) the estimation of different types of uncertainty, (3) new observations and their objective use in hydrologic DA, (4) the use of DA for real-time control of water resources systems, and (5) the development of community-based, generic DA tools for hydrologic applications. It is recommended that cost-effective transition of hydrologic DA from research to operations should be helped by developing community-based, generic modeling and DA tools or frameworks, and through fostering collaborative efforts among hydrologic modellers, DA developers, and operational forecasters.

forecasting↗
NASA NTRS2021

MBSE Validation and Verification: Case Study for LADEE

The Lunar Atmosphere Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) mission orbited the moon in order to measure the density, composition, and time variability of the lunar dust environment. The successful mission launched September 7, 2013 and was de-orbited and impacted the moon's surface on April 17, 2014. The ground-side and onboard flight software for the mission was developed using a “Model-Based Software Engineering” (MBSE) methodology combined with strong reuse of Government and Commercial Off-The Shelf (G/COTS) components. Models of the spacecraft and flight software were developed in a graphical dynamics modeling package. Flight Software requirements were prototyped and refined using the simulated models. After the model was shown to work as desired in the simulation framework, C-code software was automatically generated from the models. The auto-generated software was then tested in real-time Processor-in-the-Loop and Hardware-in-the-Loop test beds. “Traveling Road Show” test beds were used for early integration tests with payloads and other subsystems. Traditional techniques for verifying computational sciences models were used to characterize the spacecraft simulation. A lightweight set of formal methods analysis, static analysis, formal inspection, and code coverage analyses were utilized to further reduce defects in the onboard flight software artifacts. These techniques were applied early and often in the development process, iteratively increasing the capabilities of software and fidelity of vehicle models and test beds.

Model-Based Software Engineering, Validation and V↗
DOE OSTI2017

Biokinetics of yttrium and comparison with its geochemical twin holmium

The transition metal yttrium (Y, atomic number 39) is chemically similar to elements in the lanthanide family (atomic numbers 57-71, lanthanum through lutetium) and is always present with the lanthanides in rare earth ores. Yttrium and the lanthanide holmium are particularly close chemical and physical analogues and are referred to as geochemical twins because they typically show little fractionation in geological material. Extensive measurements on rocks, soils, and meteorites indicate that the Y/Ho mass concentration ratio rarely falls far from the “chondritic” or “solar system” ratio of ~26. Our paper presents a new biokinetic model for yttrium in adult humans and examines whether yttrium and holmium may be biological as well as geochemical twins. Collected data on yttrium and holmium in plants and human tissues do not allow precise derivations of Y/Ho concentration ratios but with occasional exceptions yield ratios that are reasonably consistent with chondritic values. Predictions of the time-dependent behavior of yttrium in adult humans based on the yttrium model presented here closely approximate predictions of the behavior of holmium based on a previously developed model for holmium. We know that yttrium and holmium are close biological analogues, but the available comparative data are too limited and imprecise to reveal whether there are any significant differences in their biological behavior.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coupled Multiphysics Modeling of Lithium-Ion Batteries for Automotive Crashworthiness Applications

Considerable advances have been made in battery safety models, but achieving predictive accuracy across a wide range of conditions continues to be challenging. Interactions between dynamically evolving mechanical, electrical, and thermal state variables make model prediction difficult during mechanical abuse scenarios. In this study, we develop a physics-based modeling approach that allows for choosing between different mechanical and electrochemical models depending on the required level of analysis. We demonstrate the use of this approach to connect cell-level abuse response to electrode-level and particle-level transport phenomena. A pseudo-two-dimensional model and simplified single-particle models are calibrated to electrical-thermal cycling data and applied to mechanically induced short-circuit scenarios to understand how the choice of electrochemical model affects the model prediction under abuse scenarios. These models are implemented using user-defined subroutines on ls-dyna finite element software and can be coupled with existing automotive crash safety models.

analysis and design of components↗
DOE OSTI2021

Open Source Fault-tolerant Grid Frequency Measurement for Solar Inverters

The Discrete Fourier transform (DFT) based measurement algorithms are one of the most common measurement algorithms for grid parameter estimation such as rms, phase angle, frequency. Over the past few years, many DFT based algorithms have been developed to enhance its measurement accuracy under steady-state and/or dynamic grid conditions. For example, an adaptive band-pass filter utilizing exponential modulation filter has been proposed to reduce measurement errors at the presence of large frequency deviations. Measurement accuracy of different algorithms including FIR filter, extended Kalman filtering (EKF), and enhanced DFT method have been compared in detail under different grid conditions. Two artificial signals that have 90-degree phase difference were constructed by the Clarke transformation to address the frequency spectrum leakage of DFT. A multi-module approach was developed to enhance both steady-state and dynamic measurement accuracies, in which each module was developed to eliminate some specific errors. Besides DFT-based measurement algorithms, some signal model-based algorithms have been developed to further improve the accuracy under dynamic conditions. However, a key drawback of the state-of-the-art algorithms is that they cannot perform measurements accurately during system transient faults. In the Blue Cut Fire event, there was a phase angle jump of about 26 degrees in the voltage waveform during the transient fault. The phase angle jump fault will cause waveform discontinuity, and these algorithms will fail to provide reliable measurements during this period because they typically assume the waveform to be measured is continuous, no matter what method (DFT, PLL, EKF, FIR, or Taylor WLS) is used for estimation. In fact, the measurement errors during the system transient faults like phase-jump is not required in the IEEE Standard. As a result, although a measurement instrument can pass the strict IEEE Standard, it could still be the source of the problem in the future if we have similar system transient faults, which could happen again. Therefore, developing the fault-tolerant measurement technology is the key to solve the problem.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Review of Hypersonics Aerodynamics, Aerothermodynamics and Plasmadynamics Activities within NASA's Fundamental Aeronautics Program

The research program of the aerodynamics, aerothermodynamics and plasmadynamics discipline of NASA's Hypersonic Project is reviewed. Details are provided for each of its three components: 1) development of physics-based models of non-equilibrium chemistry, surface catalytic effects, turbulence, transition and radiation; 2) development of advanced simulation tools to enable increased spatial and time accuracy, increased geometrical complexity, grid adaptation, increased physical-processes complexity, uncertainty quantification and error control; and 3) establishment of experimental databases from ground and flight experiments to develop better understanding of high-speed flows and to provide data to validate and guide the development of simulation tools.

Salas, Manuel D.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Prediction of Noise Due to Jet Turbulence Convecting Past Flight Vehicle Trailing Edges

High intensity acoustic radiation occurs when turbulence convects past airframe trailing edges. A mathematical model is developed to predict this acoustic radiation. The model is dependent on the local flow and turbulent statistics above the trailing edge of the flight vehicle airframe. These quantities are dependent on the jet and flight vehicle Mach numbers and jet temperature. A term in the model approximates the turbulent statistics of single-stream heated jet flows and is developed based upon measurement. The developed model is valid for a wide range of jet Mach numbers, jet temperature ratios, and flight vehicle Mach numbers. The model predicts traditional trailing edge noise if the jet is not interacting with the airframe. Predictions of mean-flow quantities and the cross-spectrum of static pressure near the airframe trailing edge are compared with measurement. Finally, predictions of acoustic intensity are compared with measurement and the model is shown to accurately capture the phenomenon.

Miller, Steven A. E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Prediction Model of Risk Factors for COVID-19 Developing into Severe Illness Based on 1046 Patients with COVID-19

This study analyzed the risk factors for patients with COVID-19 developing severe illnesses and explored the value of applying the logistic model combined with ROC curve analysis to predict the risk of severe illnesses at COVID-19 patients’ admissions. The clinical data of 1046 COVID-19 patients admitted to a designated hospital in a certain city from July to September 2020 were retrospectively analyzed, the clinical characteristics of the patients were collected, and a multivariate unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors for severe illnesses in COVID-19 patients during hospitalization. Based on the analysis results, a prediction model for severe conditions and the ROC curve were constructed, and the predictive value of the model was assessed. Logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR = 3.257, 95% CI 10.466–18.584), complications with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR = 7.337, 95% CI 0.227–87.021), cough (OR = 5517, 95% CI 0.258–65.024), and venous thrombosis (OR = 7322, 95% CI 0.278–95.020) were risk factors for COVID-19 patients developing severe conditions during hospitalization. When complications were not taken into consideration, COVID-19 patients’ ages, number of diseases, and underlying diseases were risk factors influencing the development of severe illnesses. The ROC curve analysis results showed that the AUC that predicted the severity of COVID-19 patients at admission was 0.943, the optimal threshold was −3.24, and the specificity was 0.824, while the sensitivity was 0.827. The changes in the condition of severe COVID-19 patients are related to many factors such as age, clinical symptoms, and underlying diseases. This study has a certain value in predicting COVID-19 patients that develop from mild to severe conditions, and this prediction model is a useful tool in the quick prediction of the changes in patients’ conditions and providing early intervention for those with risk factors.

Lian, Zhichuang↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of the risk of perchlorate exposure in a population of late-gestation pregnant women in the United States: Application of probabilistic biologically-based dose response modeling

The risk of ubiquitous perchlorate exposure and the dose-response on thyroid hormone levels in pregnant women in the United States (U.S.) have yet to be characterized. In the current work, we integrated a previously developed perchlorate submodel into a recently developed population-based pregnancy model to predict reductions in maternal serum free thyroxine (fT4) levels for late-gestation pregnant women in the U.S. Our findings indicated no significant difference in geometric mean estimates of fT4 when perchlorate exposure from food only was compared to no perchlorate exposure. The reduction in maternal fT4 levels reached statistical significance when an added contribution from drinking water (i.e., 15 μg/L, 20 μg/L, or 24.5 μg/L) was assumed in addition to the 90th percentile of food intake for pregnant women (0.198 μg/kg/day). We determined that a daily intake of 0.45 to 0.50 μg/kg/day of perchlorate was necessary to produce results that were significantly different than those obtained from no perchlorate exposure. Adjusting for this food intake dose, the relative source contribution of perchlorate from drinking water (or other non-dietary sources) was estimated to range from 0.25–0.3 μg/kg/day. Assuming a drinking water intake rate of 0.033 L/kg/day, the drinking water concentration allowance for perchlorate equates to 7.6–9.2 μg/L. In summary, we have demonstrated the utility of a probabilistic biologically-based dose-response model for perchlorate risk assessment in a sensitive life-stage at a population level; however, there is a need for continued monitoring in regions of the U.S. where perchlorate exposure may be higher. - Highlights: • Probabilistic risk assessment for perchlorate in U.S. pregnant women was conducted. • No significant change in maternal fT4 predicted due to perchlorate from food alone. • Drinking water concentration allowance for perchlorate estimated as 7.6–9.2 μg/L.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Controlled Environments Enable Adaptive Management in Aquatic Ecosystems Under Altered Environments

Ecosystems worldwide are impacted by altered environment conditions resulting from climate, drought, and land use changes. Gaps in the science knowledge base regarding plant community response to these novel and rapid changes limit both science understanding and management of ecosystems. We describe how CE Technologies have enabled the rapid supply of gap-filling science, development of ecosystem simulation models, and remote sensing assessment tools to provide science-informed, adaptive management methods in the impacted aquatic ecosystem of the California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The Delta is the hub for California's water, supplying Southern California agriculture and urban communities as well as the San Francisco Bay area. The changes in environmental conditions including temperature, light, and water quality and associated expansion of invasive aquatic plants negatively impact water distribution and ecology of the San Francisco Bay/Delta complex. CE technologies define changes in resource use efficiencies, photosynthetic productivity, evapotranspiration, phenology, reproductive strategies, and spectral reflectance modifications in native and invasive species in response to altered conditions. We will discuss how the CE technologies play an enabling role in filling knowledge gaps regarding plant response to altered environments, parameterization and validation of ecosystem models, development of satellite-based, remote sensing tools, and operational management strategies.

Remote Sensing↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Designing Molten Salt Eutectics: A Combined Thermodynamic Modeling and Machine Learning Approach

Designing stable electrolytes with target properties is an important challenge in realizing next generation energy storage devices. Molten salt eutectics-based electrolytes are known for their stability with minimal parasitic reactions when compared to traditional organic electrolytes and are an attractive option for different battery chemistries. The operating temperature of the molten salt batteries depends on the melting temperature of the eutectic and hence there is a necessity to discover novel low melting temperature molten salt eutectic mixtures for energy storage applications. In this work we develop a high throughput computational screening approach for molten salt mixtures using thermodynamic modeling and machine learning (ML). COSMO-SAC model and ML approaches were independently developed based on the existing experimental data and these models were further used to predict the eutectic melting temperature and composition of several new binary, ternary, and quaternary mixtures. We show that combining ML and thermodynamic modeling strategies is effective in exploring the vast design space of molten salt mixtures.

Thermodynamics↗
DOE OSTI2018

Detailed Hydrodynamic Feasibility Assessment for Leque Island and Zis a Ba Restoration Projects

Numerous restoration projects are underway in Puget Sound, Washington, USA with the goal of re-establishing intertidal wetlands that were historically lost due to dike construction for flood protection and agricultural development. One such effort is the restoration effort within the Stillaguamish Delta, benefitting from the cumulative effects from the Leque Island and zis a ba restoration projects. The preferred restoration design calls for the removal of perimeter dikes at the two sites and the creation of tidal channels to facilitate the drainage of tidal flows. A 3-D high-resolution unstructured-grid coastal ocean model based on FVCOM was developed to evaluate the hydrodynamic response of the estuary to restoration alternatives. A series of hydrodynamic modeling simulations were then performed to quantify the hydrodynamic response of the nearshore restoration project, such as periodic inundation, suitable currents, and desired habitat/salinity levels. Sediment impacts were also examined, including the potential for excessive erosion or sedimentation requiring maintenance. Simulation results indicate that the preferred alternative scenario provides the desired estuarine response, which is consistent with the planned design. A decrease in velocities and bed shear in the main river channels was noted for the restored condition associated with the increased inundation of tidal flat area and reduced tidal flows through the main channels. High bed shear near the restored tidal channel entrances indicates that the inlets may evolve in size until equilibrium is established.

hydrodynamics, feasibility assessments, nearshore ↗
DOE OSTI2019

Dynamic Data Reconciliation and Validation of a Dynamic Model for Solvent-Based CO 2 Capture Using Pilot-Plant Data

This paper is focused on the development and validation of a dynamic model for an MEA-based CO 2 capture unit. Starting with a rigorous steady-state process model, the dynamic model is developed in Aspen Plus Dynamics ® using a modified Murphree-efficiency approach and is validated using dynamic data collected from the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) in Wilsonville, Alabama. The dynamic test runs were designed with due consideration of process excitation and process nonlinearities constrained by the available time to conduct the test runs and implement the experimental designs in the plant control system. The experimental data include solvent composition and loading. Since the experimental data were found to violate mass and energy balances, filtering algorithms coupled with dynamic data reconciliation techniques were used. Without adjusting any model parameters, the dynamic model satisfactorily predicted dynamic response of CO 2 capture due to step changes in the solvent flowrate, flue gas flowrate, and steam flowrates. Transient studies show that the process gain and time constants can considerably change depending on the direction of the disturbance or manipulated variables, indicating process nonlinearities. Due to a storage tank between the absorber and stripper, the time constant of the full plant can be considerably longer than the time constants of the absorber or stripper individually. Furthermore, impact of the control system on the process efficiency while following an optimal CO 2 capture schedule was also studied.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Phase space effects on fast ion distribution function modeling in tokamaks

Integrated simulations of tokamak discharges typically rely on classical physics to model energetic particle (EP) dynamics. However, there are numerous cases in which energetic particles can suffer additional transport that is not classical in nature. Examples include transport by applied 3D magnetic perturbations and, more notably, by plasma instabilities. Focusing on the effects of instabilities, ad-hoc models can empirically reproduce increased transport, but the choice of transport coefficients is usually somehow arbitrary. New approaches based on physics-based reduced models are being developed to address those issues in a simplified way, while retaining a more correct treatment of resonant wave-particle interactions. The kick model implemented in the tokamak transport code TRANSP is an example of such reduced models. It includes modifications of the EP distribution by instabilities in real and velocity space, retaining correlations between transport in energy and space typical of resonant EP transport. The relevance of EP phase space modifications by instabilities is first discussed in terms of predicted fast ion distribution. Results are compared with those from a simple, ad-hoc diffusive model. It is then shown that the phase-space resolved model can also provide additional insight into important issues such as internal consistency of the simulations and mode stability through the analysis of the power exchanged between energetic particles and the instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2006

An Agent-Based Model for Analyzing Control Policies and the Dynamic Service-Time Performance of a Capacity-Constrained Air Traffic Management Facility

Simple agent-based models may be useful for investigating air traffic control strategies as a precursory screening for more costly, higher fidelity simulation. Of concern is the ability of the models to capture the essence of the system and provide insight into system behavior in a timely manner and without breaking the bank. The method is put to the test with the development of a model to address situations where capacity is overburdened and potential for propagation of the resultant delay though later flights is possible via flight dependencies. The resultant model includes primitive representations of principal air traffic system attributes, namely system capacity, demand, airline schedules and strategy, and aircraft capability. It affords a venue to explore their interdependence in a time-dependent, dynamic system simulation. The scope of the research question and the carefully-chosen modeling fidelity did allow for the development of an agent-based model in short order. The model predicted non-linear behavior given certain initial conditions and system control strategies. Additionally, a combination of the model and dimensionless techniques borrowed from fluid systems was demonstrated that can predict the system s dynamic behavior across a wide range of parametric settings.

Conway, Sheila R.↗
DOE OSTI2012

Prediction of Total Dissolved Gas Exchange at Hydropower Dams

Total dissolved gas (TDG) supersaturation in waters released at hydropower dams can cause gas bubble trauma in fisheries resulting in physical injuries and eyeball protrusion that can lead to mortality. Elevated TDG pressures in hydropower releases are generally caused by the entrainment of air in spillway releases and the subsequent exchange of atmospheric gasses into solution during passage through the stilling basin. The network of dams throughout the Columbia River Basin (CRB) are managed for irrigation, hydropower production, flood control, navigation, and fish passage that frequently result in both voluntary and involuntary spillway releases. These dam operations are constrained by state and federal water quality standards for TDG saturation which balance the benefits of spillway operations designed for Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed fisheries versus the degradation to water quality as defined by TDG saturation. In the 1970s, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), under the federal Clean Water Act (Section 303(d)), established a criterion not to exceed the TDG saturation level of 110% in order to protect freshwater and marine aquatic life. The states of Washington and Oregon have adopted special water quality standards for TDG saturation in the tailrace and forebays of hydropower facilities on the Columbia and Snake Rivers where spillway operations support fish passage objectives. The physical processes that affect TDG exchange at hydropower facilities have been studied throughout the CRB in site-specific studies and routine water quality monitoring programs. These data have been used to quantify the relationship between project operations, structural properties, and TDG exchange. These data have also been used to develop predictive models of TDG exchange to support real-time TDG management decisions. These empirically based predictive models have been developed for specific projects and account for both the fate of spillway and powerhouse flows in the tailrace channel and resultant exchange in route to the next downstream dam. Currently, there exists a need to summarize the general finding from operational and structural TDG abatement programs conducted throughout the CRB and for the development of a generalized prediction model that pools data collected at multiple projects with similar structural attributes. A generalized TDG exchange model can be tuned to specific projects and coupled with water regulation models to allow the formulation of optimal daily water regulation schedules subject to water quality constraints for TDG supersaturation. A generalized TDG exchange model can also be applied to other hydropower dams that affect TDG pressures in tailraces and can be used to develop alternative operational and structural measures to minimize TDG generation. It is proposed to develop a methodology for predicting TDG levels downstream of hydropower facilities with similar structural properties as a function of a set of variables that affect TDG exchange; such as tailwater depth, spill discharge and pattern, project head, and entrainment of powerhouse releases. TDG data from hydropower facilities located throughout the northwest region of the United States will be used to identify relationships between TDG exchange and relevant dependent variables. Data analysis and regression techniques will be used to develop predictive TDG exchange expressions for various structural categories.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2012

An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life (EOL) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due to the presence of process noise and uncertainty in the future inputs to the system. Prognostics algorithm must account for this inherent uncertainty. In addition, these algorithms never know exactly the state of the system at the desired time of prediction, or the exact model describing the future evolution of the system, accumulating additional uncertainty into the predicted EOL. Prediction algorithms that do not account for these sources of uncertainty are misrepresenting the EOL and can lead to poor decisions based on their results. In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainty in the prediction problem. We develop a general model-based prediction algorithm that incorporates these sources of uncertainty, and propose a novel approach to efficiently handle uncertainty in the future input trajectories of a system by using the unscented transformation. Using this approach, we are not only able to reduce the computational load but also estimate the bounds of uncertainty in a deterministic manner, which can be useful to consider during decision-making. Using a lithium-ion battery as a case study, we perform several simulation-based experiments to explore these issues, and validate the overall approach using experimental data from a battery testbed.

Daigle, Matthew J.↗