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NASA NTRS2020

Ultrafast Melting at Metal-Semiconductor Interfaces: A Molecular Dynamics Study

Quantifying the thermodynamics of interfacial melting is important for several applications such as laser machining and designing radiation hardened electronic devices. Due to the short time and length scales that are involved in the process, molecular simulations provide an ideal path for understating the interfacial melting phenomena. In this work we investigate tungsten (W) – silicon carbide (SiC) interfaces which are relevant in modern high-power electronic devices. Classical molecular dynamics simulations along with the two-temperature model (TTM) were used to study the radiation induced melting of the interface while a neural network-based machine learning framework was used to track the transient re-crystallization process. The damage endured by the semiconductor at the interface following the radiation event is discussed in detail while the re-crystallization of the metal is described in terms of the classical nucleation theory.

Ashwin Ravichandran↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term. The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Disasters↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bioinspired Heat Exchanger Design for Electric Aircraft

This document is prepared for an invited talk to a class at The State University of New York – Buffalo. The topic is on bioinspired heat exchanger design, and how NASA is utilizing this concept to design heat exchangers for electric aircraft. Utilizing machine learning in the design process is also discussed.

Fractal↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters II: Enhancing a Statistical Flood Risk Model to Continue Improving Early Warning Systems and Public Safety in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flooding events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of technological advancements and applied science are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters II project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, the project improved the original statistical flood risk model, FLuME (Flood Learning Model Environment), programmed by the first DEVELOP term The enhancements incorporated an additional six years of precipitation and soil moisture data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), modeled using Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission TRMM Microwave Imager. These Earth observations were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the US Geological Survey. The resultant flood risk model FLASH (Flood Learning Environment and Severity Assessment Hub) was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The addition of an advanced deep learning framework known as long short-term memory improved the model’s ability to capture relationships between variables. To assess the effectiveness of the new model, FLASH produced a model efficiency metric of 0.99, a significant improvement over the 0.85 value produced by the previous model. The project assisted the OEM in pursuing the integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a threat matrix capable of informing near real-time decision making.

Disasters↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AEGIS: Autonomous Entity Global Intelligence System for Urban Air Mobility

This paper presents a global intelligence system that synthesizes aerial vehicles’ real-time physical data, planned actions, and historical behavior into engineered data frames representing the collective state of the airspace and suitable for efficient machine learning consumption. These data frames are then learnt by a deep neural net to build a prediction model that estimates the expected evolution path of the current state, thereby identifying potential future conflicts. This approach lends itself to an automated early warning system that the aerial vehicles can implement onboard with a suitable edge computing module more efficiently and effectively than non-AI methods, and eventually take preventive or corrective measures towards self/collaborative resolution of the issues. Contrary to a centralized early warning system where all vehicles’ task-space eventually converges to a global optimum state, the presented distributed global intelligence system brings in a balance between local utility functions of each vehicle and the global operating framework. This contributes to effectively handle the potential massive scaling in urban air mobility in the near future.

Artificial Intelligence↗

NASA NTRS2020

Robust Algorithm for Estimating Total Suspended Solids (TSS) in Inland and Nearshore Coastal Waters

One of the challenging tasks in modern aquatic remote sensing is the retrieval of near-surface concentrations of Total Suspended Solids (TSS). This study aims to present a Statistical, inherent Optical property (IOP) -based, and muLti-conditional Inversion proceDure (SOLID) for enhanced retrievals of satellite-derived TSS under a wide range of in-water bio-optical conditions in rivers, lakes, estuaries, and coastal waters. In this study, using a large in situ database (N > 3500), the SOLID model is devised using a three-step procedure: (a) water-type classification of the input remote sensing reflectance (R(sub rs)), (b) retrieval of particulate backscattering (b(sub bp)) in the red or near-infrared (NIR) regions using semi-analytical, machine-learning, and empirical models, and (c) estimation of TSS from b(sub bp) via water-type-specific empirical models. Using an independent subset of our in situ data (N = 2729) with TSS ranging from 0.1 to 2626.8 [g/m (exp 3)], the SOLID model is thoroughly examined and compared against several state-of-the-art algorithms (Miller and McKee, 2004; Nechad et al., 2010; Novoa et al., 2017; Ondrusek et al., 2012; Petus et al., 2010). We show that SOLID outperforms all the other models to varying degrees, i.e., from 10 to > 100%, depending on the statistical attributes (e.g., global versus water-type-specific metrics). For demonstration purposes, the model is implemented for images acquired by the MultiSpectral Imager aboard Sentinel-2A/B over the Chesapeake Bay, San-Francisco-Bay-Delta Estuary, Lake Okeechobee, and Lake Taihu. To enable generating consistent, multimission TSS products, its performance is further extended to, and evaluated for, other missions, such as the Ocean and Land Color Instrument (OLCI), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), and Operational Land Imager (OLI). Sensitivity analyses on uncertainties induced by the atmospheric correction indicate that 10% uncertainty in Rrs leads to < 20% uncertainty in TSS retrievals from SOLID. While this study suggests that SOLID has a potential for producing TSS products in global coastal and inland waters, our statistical analysis certainly verifies that there is still a need for improving retrievals across a wide spectrum of particle loads.

Total suspended solids↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Surface Temperature and the Compositional Effects of Electron Bombardment on Dione

Saturn’s icy moons are composed of mostly water ice with minor “contaminants,” such as CO2 ice, and a dark component thought to be organics, hematite and/or metallic Fe [1]. The space weathering process of electron bombardment is expected to be particularly important on the surfaces of Saturn’s inner moons (Mimas, Tethys, Dione, and Rhea), as they orbit within the extended plasma sheet of Saturn’s magnetosphere. Terrains exhibiting thermal anomalies (i.e., colder temperatures in the day and warmer temperatures at night than surrounding areas) correspond to regions of high energy electron bombardment [2; 3]. Energetic electrons impact the surfaces, fracturing ice particles into sub-micron sized grains, and this process becomes more effective for increasing particle energies [4]. In addition to alteration of ices, the dark material may also be modified or generated within icy surfaces by interaction with solar UV radiation, cosmic rays, or by particles trapped in Saturn’s magnetic field [5]. CO2 could be sourced from irradiation of dark organic material [7]. Many of these alterations should be observable in Visible and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) spectra [8]. We used surface temperatures derived from Cassini’s Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) to help isolate areas where space weathering due to electron bombardment is more predominant and investigated the subtle changes in VIMS spectra using machine learning techniques. We present our results here for Dione. On ocean worlds, space weathering products would be present along with any potential indications of life. We will need to understand the manifestation of space weathering in the data to separate the two processes.

Cindy Lee Young↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Building a Real-Time Flood Prediction Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the use of applied remote sensing analyses is increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP National Program partnered with the local government of Howard County, Maryland, to investigate the use of machine learning for advanced flood risk detection, and to test the feasibility of integrating this approach into the county’s flood early warning system. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM), the project developed a statistical model capable of hindcasting the two severe flash flood events that devastated Ellicott City and transitioned to a ‘Long Short-Term Memory’ based sequence-to-sequence deep learning model with 8-hour forecast capability. The team combined data inputs from public sources including river and precipitation gauges, NASA and NOAA Earth observations, and numerical weather model products using scripts written in the Google Colaboratory Python scripting environment. In addition to designing the deep learning architecture, the team trained and tested the model, and evaluated its performance using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. The final product, the Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM) predicts stage height for the Hudson Branch gauge in Ellicott City using data products available in near real-time, including the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model’s accumulated precipitation forecasts supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM and the U.S. Geological Survey. STREAM was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface capable of triggering the alarms that initiate emergency response protocols up to 8 hours in advance of a predicted severe flood event. The project demonstrated the potential for the integration of open data and Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing near real-time decision making.

NASA DEVELOP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Intelligent Lemma Selection for Formal Methods Proofs

To help in formally verifying the correctness of various systems, NASA constructs mathematical proofs using the proof assistant PVS (Prototype Verification System). Throughout this effort, NASA has amassed a library of tens of thousands of proven lemmas. While these lemmas can often be applied to new problems, their abundance can make lemma selection a non-trivial task. This project focuses on creating a lemma selector for use in PVS based on existing systems MePo, MaSh, and MeSh, which were written for other proof assistants. An initial benchmark system makes selections based on symbol-level similarity while the final lemma selector is a hybrid system, combining the classical approach used in the benchmark with a machine learning approach which leverages the lemmas' past usage.

Connor T Baumler↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Electron Bombardment on Dione: Surface Compositional Effects and Temperature Anomalies

Saturn’s icy moons are composed primarily of water ice with minor other “contaminants,” such as CO2 ice, and a dark component thought to be organics, hematite and/or metallic Fe [1]. The space weathering process of electron bombardment is expected to be particularly important on the surfaces of Saturn’s inner moons (Mimas, Tethys, Dione, and Rhea), as they orbit within Saturn’s inner magnetosphere. Terrains exhibiting thermal anomalies (i.e., colder temperatures in the day and warmer temperatures at night than surrounding areas) correspond to regions of high energy electron bombardment [2; 3; 4; 5]. Energetic electrons impact the surfaces, sintering ice grains together, and this process becomes more effective for increasing particle energies [6]. Solar UV radiation, cosmic rays, dust in-fall, and cold plasma particles trapped in Saturn’s magnetic field also play an important role in altering the nature and the structure of the native surface ices by the implantation of contaminants, ionization, sputtering, and dissociation of water ice molecules [7]. Additionally, CO2 could be sourced from irradiation of dark organic material [8]. Many of these surface alterations are observable in Cassini’s Visible and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) spectra [9]. We used similar methodologies as have been employed in previous works [e.g., 10] to derive surface temperatures from Cassini’s Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS), which helped to isolate areas where space weathering due to electron bombardment is more predominant. The subtle changes in VIMS spectra were investigated using machine learning techniques. We present here our results for Dione.

Cindy Lee Young↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters II - Building a Real-Time Predictive Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the uses of applied remote sensing analyses are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters III project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems in Ellicott City, Maryland. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, this term built on the predictive capability of the long-short term memory (LSTM) model created by the second term of this DEVELOP project to create a Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM). Enhancements to the model included the integration of both real-time and predicted weather products from the National Weather Service to increase predictive capacity. These weather products were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM as well as real-time radar products. The resultant flood risk model was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The model, upgraded to predict stage height up to 8 hours in advance, was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface. The project demonstrated the potential for integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing real-time decision-making.

Erika Munshi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Measurement of material recession and shock standoff in plasma windtunnel using neural nets

Arcjets are plasma wind tunnels used to test the performance of heatshield materials for spacecraft atmospheric entry. These facilities present an extremely harsh flow environment with heat fluxes up to 10^9 W/m^2 for up to 30 minutes. The plasma is low-temperature (~1 eV) but high pressure (> 10 kPa) creating high-enthalpy supersonic flows similar to atmospheric entry conditions. Typically, material samples are measured before and after a test to characterize the total recession. However, this does not capture time-dependent effects such as material expansion and non-linear recession. This work will present new analysis of arcjet test videos which measure both the time-dependent 2D recession of the material samples and the shock standoff distance. New results showing non-linear material erosion rates will be highlighted. The material and shock edges are extracted from the videos by training and applying a convolutional neural network. Due to the consistent camera settings, the machine learning model achieves high accuracy (~99%) on new data with only a small number of training frames (~80). The new results will be discussed in the context of temperature dependent plasma-surface interaction.

Magnus A Haw↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evolution of Airspace Operations and Safety

NASA's vision of how the airspace will evolve and change by 2045. The progression will be driven in waves by technology with advances in automation and machine learning driving more dense traffic and more types of aircraft.

Airspace Operations and Safety↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Common Scientific and Technological Interests Between Astrobiology and Space Biology

The disciplines of astrobiology (AB) and space biology (SB) clearly have common interests, however they have not been pursued jointly. SB and AB are inextricably linked, both intellectually and technologically. They can now be effectively linked operationally. Cross-cutting joint collaborations will enhance innovation and increase cost effectiveness. Session topics include joint science questions, technologies, instrumentation, and missions. Examples include life detection, overlapping planetary protection concerns, biofilms, radiation, hyper- and hypogravity, applications of artificial intelligence and machine learning, interoperable databases, facilities (i.e., spacecraft, lunar surface efforts, simulation chambers, analog sites, etc.), training opportunities, and other topics relevant to AB and SB joint ventures. We welcome contributions on this very broad topical area to facilitate cross-fertilization of these disciplines that are of great importance to NASA.

astrobiology↗

NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters III: Building a Real-Time Statistical Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

Erika Munshi↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Use of Design of Experiments in Determining Neural Network Architectures for Loss of Control Detection

We describe empirical methods for selecting a neural network architecture to implement belief state inference on generic commercial transport aircraft. We highlight a case study on the planning, execution, and analysis of a set of experiments to determine the configurations of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE). Our main contribution is the application of a structured method that can be used for machine learning in many aerospace applications. This method optimizes the structure and training parameters of a neural network for belief state inference, using Design of Experiments (DOE) statistical methodologies. The motivation for this specific DOE analysis was to identify the appropriate hyperparameters for measuring the CVAE reconstruction probability and latent space, such that the measurements can be used to infer qualitative state changes for the aircraft. We demonstrate that this process yields information about a trained neural network’s utility for this specific application, along with a quantifiable range of certainty. We execute 84 experiments using loss-of-control flight maneuver data from the NASA T-2 aircraft, demonstrating that this empirical process allows us to construct cheap and simple models with specific attributes amenable to belief state inference in aerospace applications.

Loss of Control↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Market Survey 2020: Commercial Clinical Decision Support Systems and Wellness Tools

For long-duration, deep space exploration missions, current methods for managing and supporting crew health and medical conditions will be unsuitable. Communication and data transmission lags will necessitate the use of a sophisticated clinical decision support system (CDSS) that will tailor diagnosis and treatment guidance that is context-sensitive for anticipated astronaut health, wellness, and medical conditions. A variety of clinical decision support (CDS) and wellness tools (WT) are currently available in the commercial market and a broad-brush survey of this market can provide an initial impression of the current state of the art which, in turn, can inform the roadmap of NASA deep space CDSS development and associated requirements. Such a survey was undertaken during the first six months of 2020 using directed convenience sampling to obtain information provided by vendors on their websites; both commercially available CDS and WT (such as those used to track and monitor nutrition, exercise, and sleep) were included. Areas assessed were item type (e.g., software/application, device); primary purpose of the item (e.g., diagnostic support, nutrition tracking); additional purposes (if any); reported features, capabilities, and functionality; setting of use (e.g., inpatient, outpatient); intended user (e.g., clinician, patient); location and sources of data/information used or produced by the item; integration with patient electronic health record (EHR); compliance with interoperability ontologies and standards (e.g., Health Level 7 [HL7], Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine – Clinical Terminology [SNOMED-CT]); and whether the item is knowledge-based (derived from research findings) or non-knowledge-based (derived through artificial intelligence, machine learning, advanced probability and statistics), among others. Ninety-seven (97) vendor websites describing 196 CDS and 73 WT (269 total) were reviewed and coded. The primary purpose of the majority of CDS reviewed is diagnosis or diagnosis/treatment/drug decision support—targeted for clinician use— and the primary purpose of the majority of WT reviewed is the monitoring of different health metrics, most often through the use of a biosensor device (e.g., blood pressure)—targeted for patient use. Very few CDS or WT appear to comply with major international interoperability standards or can be integrated with a patient’s EHR data. None consider contextual factors, such as conditions of the physical environment (e.g., CO2 levels). The majority of CDS and WT reviewed are non-knowledge, cloud- or web-based applications or software. Forty-three (43) major findings were identified and the implications those findings have for NASA will be discussed. Example major findings include: CDS-WT capabilities range from diagnosis to treatment applications, CDS-WT may be wearable or non-wearable and are technologically advanced and only a few CDS-WT tools referenced compliance to ensure interoperability, among other findings. Recommendations will also be offered that will help to address ExMC Gap, Medical-701: Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system.

market survey↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Electron Bombardment on Dione: Surface Compositional Effects and Temperature Anomalies

Saturn’s icy moons are composed primarily of water ice with minor other “contaminants,” such as CO2 ice, and a dark component thought to be organics, hematite and/or metallic Fe. The space weathering process of electron bombardment is expected to be particularly important on the surfaces of Saturn’s inner moons (Mimas, Tethys, Dione, and Rhea), as they orbit within Saturn’s inner magnetosphere. Terrains exhibiting thermal anomalies (i.e., colder temperatures in the day and warmer temperatures at night than surrounding areas) correspond to regions of high energy electron bombardment. Energetic electrons impact the surfaces, sintering ice grains together, and this process becomes more effective for increasing particle energies. Solar UV radiation, cosmic rays, dust in-fall, and cold plasma particles trapped in Saturn’s magnetic field also play an important role in altering the nature and the structure of the native surface ices by the implantation of contaminants, ionization, sputtering, and dissociation of water ice molecules. Additionally, CO2 could be sourced from irradiation of dark organic material. Many of these surface alterations are observable in Cassini’s Visible and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) spectra. We used similar methodologies as have been employed in previous works to derive surface temperatures from Cassini’s Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS), which helped to isolate areas where space weathering due to electron bombardment is more predominant. The subtle changes in VIMS spectra were investigated using machine learning techniques. We present here our results for Dione.

C L Young↗