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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Aeroservoelastic Stability of a Floating Wind Turbine

The problem of negative damping undermines the aeroservoelastic stability of floating offshore wind turbines. The negative damping problem is most prevalent around rated wind speed, where the sensitivity of thrust to wind speed is the largest. This paper investigates the implementation of peak shaving, a controller feature that limits the rated thrust by pitching the blades before rated wind speed is reached. Two controller designs are investigated: a de-tuned controller and a nacelle-feedback controller. A time-domain metric is defined, inspired by Lyapunov theory, in order to compute and assess the stability of floating offshore wind turbines. The model of the International Energy Agency 15-MW reference wind turbine mounted on the University of Maine VolturnUS-S floater is simulated in HAWC2 with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory reference open-source controller. Peak shaving is applied to the two controller designs and stability is assessed. According to the chosen metric, peak shaving does not improve the stability of the system. This is due to the trade-off between loads and error tracking: although the loads and displacements in the fore-aft direction of the turbine are reduced, the rotor-speed tracking is poorer, which increases the shaft torsion fatigue load.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Thermal extremes in regulated river systems under climate change: an application to the southeastern U.S. rivers

High river temperatures, or “thermal extremes”, can cause fish mortality and thermoelectric powerplant derating. Under climate change, projected higher air temperature and stronger surface energy fluxes will lead to increased water temperatures, exacerbating thermal extremes. However, cold hypolimnetic releases from thermally stratified reservoirs can depress tailwater temperatures and therefore alleviate thermal extremes. Thermal extremes are more harmful when they coincide with low flows, which we refer to as “hydrologic hot-dry events”. To assess multisectoral impacts of climate change over large regions, we evaluate thermal events according to three impact attributes: duration (D), intensity (I), and severity (S). We apply an established model framework to simulate streamflow and stream temperature over the southeastern US regulated river system. We quantify climate change impacts (by the 2080s under RCP8.5) by comparing historical and future periods and quantify regulation impacts by comparing unregulated and regulated scenarios. We find that climate change will exacerbate thermal extremes (all three metrics) in both unregulated and regulated scenarios, albeit less in the regulated scenario. Thermal mitigation from reservoir regulation will be stronger under climate change, decreasing the three metrics compared to the unregulated case. Even so, thermal extremes in the regulated scenario will still be more severe under climate change, and only 12.2%, 19.7%, and 26.0% of D, I, and S can be mitigated by reservoirs. Despite stronger reservoir stratification, the number of regulated river segments that experience simultaneous high temperature and low flow events (hydrologic hot-dry events) will increase by 21.4% by the 2080s under RCP8.5. These events will have a median annual duration of 10.3 days/year, over 10 times the historical value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global mean frequency increases of daily and sub-daily heavy precipitation in ERA5

Abstract Changes in heavy precipitation frequency can be viewed as a change in the event return period, a common metric of risk. Compared with intensity, frequency changes are less well-studied and past work has largely been constrained to analysis of well-instrumented regions. We exploit the latest ERA5 reanalysis and its global hourly accumulations at 1/4° spatial resolution and apply a metric that captures frequency changes across both wet and dry regions. According to ERA5 and in a global average sense, during 1989–2018, hourly events that occurred once per year in 1979–1988 increased in frequency by 71 (53–93, 95% range) %, while the one day per year heavy event frequency increased by 44 (37–54) %. Thus, hourly events that occurred once per year in the baseline decade are on track to double in frequency by 2021–2030, and the daily events by 2047–2056. Furthermore, our results replicate prior findings that relative frequency increases are larger for increasingly rare events, and for the first time we quantify that mean frequency increases have been greater over ocean than land. Ocean increases are larger by factors of 3.0 and 2.1 for the hourly and daily events that occurred once per year in 1979–1988, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Impacts of abiotic and biotic factors on tundra productivity near Utqiaġvik, Alaska

Abstract Earlier snowmelt, warmer temperatures and herbivory are among the factors that influence high-latitude tundra productivity near the town of Utqiaġvik in northern Alaska. However, our understanding of the potential interactions between these factors is limited. MODIS observations provide cover fractions of vegetation, snow, standing water, and soil, and fractional absorption of photosynthetically active radiation by canopy chlorophyll (fAPAR chl ) per pixel. Here, we evaluated a recent time-period (2001–2014) that the tundra experienced large interannual variability in vegetation productivity metrics (i.e. fAPAR chl and APAR chl ), which was explainable by both abiotic and biotic factors. We found earlier snowmelt to increase soil and vegetation cover, and productivity in June, while warmer temperatures significantly increased monthly productivity. However, abiotic factors failed to explain stark decreases in productivity during August of 2008, which coincided with a severe lemming outbreak. MODIS observations found this tundra ecosystem to completely recover two years later, resulting in elevated productivity. This study highlights the potential roles of both climate and herbivory in modulating the interannual variability of remotely retrieved plant productivity metrics in Arctic coastal tundra ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Little prairie under the panel: testing native pollinator habitat seed mix establishment at three utility-scale solar sites in Minnesota

Abstract As more land is being utilized for large-scale solar energy projects, there are increasing discussions from stakeholders on how to utilize land under solar panels to promote biodiversity. One path is to plant habitat beneficial to pollinators and other insects, but there have been few long-term studies that examine how different vegetation and seed mixes establish underneath solar panels. This study addresses a scientific gap to determine whether native pollinator seed mixes successfully establish over time under solar arrays using a systematic assessment of eight seed mixes planted at three utility-scale solar sites in Minnesota. We assess establishment with a percent native coverage metric, which is an assessment of native species observations compared to total observations during percent cover analyses in our vegetative test plots. The percent native coverage metric allows for a measurement of how the seed mix established and how the seed mix persists over time. The percent native coverage under and in between the solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays rose from 10% after one year of planting to 58% after three years across all sites, while the native coverage of the full sun control area rose from 9.6% to 70% under the same period, showing that native prairie and pollinator plants successfully established under the array, although to a lesser extent than in full sun conditions. Percent native coverage under the PV arrays rose 5- to 8-fold for each of the three sites from over the course of the study, while the coverage of weeds decreased for all three sites over the same period. Percent native coverage varied by seed mix over the project years, but every seed mix experienced a higher percent native coverage year after year under the PV arrays. Our results did not indicate a difference in establishment across placement within the array; the center, west, and east portions of the areas in between panels had similar establishment rates at two out of three sites, indicating that the same seed mix can be applied throughout the array. Out of 101 plant species seeded, we observed the establishment of 68 species in our vegetative test plots, and we detailed the top 20 observed species to inform future seed mix development. Based on these findings, native pollinator vegetation can establish over time at solar arrays, and it can be suitable for creating habitat at utility-scale solar sites.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

How different power plant types contribute to electric grid reliability, resilience, and vulnerability: a comparative analytical framework

Abstract This work explores the dependability tradeoffs provided by the most common types of central power plants in the United States. Historically, the electricity sector has lacked consensus on how reliability , resilience , and vulnerability differ and how those metrics change depending on the power plant fleet composition. We propose distinct definitions for these metrics and an analytical framework to evaluate power plant fleet dependability. Using data analysis and literature review, we identify fifteen dependability attributes across which we rank eleven power plant types relative to natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) plants. We use NGCC as the benchmark because it is common to many locations and is of relatively recent vintage. The framework shows that each power plant type has unique dependability benefits and drawbacks. We provide examples of how researchers may use the framework to evaluate grid dependability qualitatively under different scenarios. We find that assuming all attributes that contribute to grid dependability are equally important and additive, electric grid dependability is best supported when power plant fleets include a mixture of power generation technologies. Then, we discuss scenario characteristics that could alter the prioritization and relationships of attributes. We also find that if current capacity installation trends continue to favor low- and zero-carbon power plants, US power grids may benefit from increased resilience and reduced vulnerability at the cost of decreased reliability. We conclude by recommending methods for adapting the framework and quantifying relationships between attributes in individual scenarios.

Ramirez-Meyers, K. (ORCID:0000000291216952)↗

A comparative analysis of US state-level policies and programs to advance energy justice

Abstract The US energy system is undergoing massive changes that have environmental, technological, and societal implications. Decisions and actions taken now will dramatically alter the trajectory of our future energy system. Though new technologies can lessen the dangers of anthropogenic climate change, an effective and sustainable transition requires addressing social justice issues as a priority. To this end, many states have implemented policies and programs that address energy justice. A formal survey of state-level energy justice policies and programs is needed to better understand the methods used to assist communities targeted and the impacts of these efforts. Such an analysis should include an analysis of the metrics used to judge the effectiveness of the enacted policies and programs. In this paper, we analyze the energy justice policies and programs of seven different US states. From this analysis, we identify three important aspects of state energy policies. First, most policies and programs do not articulate their goals, nor cite metrics to judge their successes. This lack of transparency and accountability is a major roadblock to truly just solutions. Second, states focus on a very narrow range of solutions for energy justice issues. The most prevalent being utility bill assistance, which does not address the systemic and enduring challenges faced by many low-income or historically marginalized communities. Lastly, comprehensive energy policy does not acknowledge and address housing, employment, education, and healthcare inequities that exacerbate energy system inequities. The work presented in this paper sheds light on the progress of state-level energy justice policies and programs across the United States, and we argue more work needs to be done to understand best practices in energy justice policymaking.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Polariton creation in coupled cavity arrays with spectrally disordered emitters

Abstract Integrated photonics has been a promising platform for analog quantum simulation of condensed matter phenomena in strongly correlated systems. To that end, we explore the implementation of all-photonic quantum simulators in coupled cavity arrays with integrated ensembles of spectrally disordered emitters. Our model is reflective of color center ensembles integrated into photonic crystal cavity arrays. Using the Quantum Master equation and the Effective Hamiltonian approaches, we study energy band formation and wavefunction properties in the open quantum Tavis–Cummings–Hubbard framework. We find conditions for polariton creation and (de)localization under experimentally relevant values of disorder in emitter frequencies, cavity resonance frequencies, and emitter-cavity coupling rates. To quantify these properties, we introduce two metrics, the polaritonic and nodal participation ratios, that characterize the light-matter hybridization and the node delocalization of the wavefunction, respectively. These new metrics combined with the Effective Hamiltonian approach prove to be a powerful toolbox for cavity quantum electrodynamical engineering of solid-state systems.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Climate Nowcasting

The climate is changing so rapidly that climatologies based on historical statistics cannot reliably capture the current risk of extreme weather events hazardous to society. Decision relevant projections of weather extreme probability over the next 10–15 years are needed to enable adaptation and resilience in the face of this evolving risk. Current weather forecasts/predictions and long-term climate projections for decades into the future are inadequate for providing this information to stakeholders that need it, targeting forecast horizons either too short or too far into the future. We argue that a new approach is needed: climate nowcasting. Climate nowcasting would focus on user-inspired extreme metrics over the next 10–15 year time frame, targeting specific impacts and locations down to a local scale, by engaging with stakeholders to understand their needs and provide information in a format relevant for decision making. Importantly, climate nowcasting will not consist of a single approach or data set, involving rather data fusion from different sources of information: simulations, observations and data driven methods, likely through different weights depending on the metric of interest. Predictions must be accompanied by serious engagement with stakeholders facing climate risks, and clearly present uncertainties and limitations of any prediction. Such a vision is very different from how typical climate or weather forecasts are applied today.

Gettelman, Andrew↗

Artificial intelligence in cryo-EM protein particle picking: recent advances and remaining challenges

Abstract Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) has revolutionized structural biology by enabling the determination of high-resolution 3-Dimensional (3D) structures of large biological macromolecules. Protein particle picking, the process of identifying individual protein particles in cryo-EM micrographs for building protein structures, has progressed from manual and template-based methods to sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI)-driven approaches in recent years. This review critically examines the evolution and current state of cryo-EM particle picking methods, with an emphasis on the impact of AI. We conducted a comparative evaluation of popular AI-based particle picking methods, using both general machine learning metrics and specific cryo-EM structure determination metrics. This analysis involved constructing the 3D density map from the picked protein particles and assessing the obtained resolution and particle orientation diversity, underscoring the significant impact of AI on cryo-EM particle picking. Despite the advancements, we also identified key obstacles, such as handling complex micrographs with small proteins. The analysis provides insights into the future development of more sophisticated and fully automated AI methods in cryo-EM particle recognition.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

Identifying strengths and weaknesses of methods for computational network inference from single-cell RNA-seq data

Single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) offers unparalleled insight into the transcriptional programs of different cellular states by measuring the transcriptome of thousands of individual cells. An emerging problem in the analysis of scRNA-seq is the inference of transcriptional gene regulatory networks and a number of methods with different learning frameworks have been developed to address this problem. Here, we present an expanded benchmarking study of eleven recent network inference methods on seven published scRNA-seq datasets in human, mouse, and yeast considering different types of gold standard networks and evaluation metrics. We evaluate methods based on their computing requirements as well as on their ability to recover the network structure. We find that, while most methods have a modest recovery of experimentally derived interactions based on global metrics such as Area Under the Precision Recall curve, methods are able to capture targets of regulators that are relevant to the system under study. Among the top performing methods that use only expression were SCENIC, PIDC, MERLIN or Correlation. Addition of prior biological knowledge and the estimation of transcription factor activities resulted in the best overall performance with the Inferelator and MERLIN methods that use prior knowledge outperforming methods that use expression alone. We found that imputation for network inference did not improve network inference accuracy and could be detrimental. Comparisons of inferred networks for comparable bulk conditions showed that the networks inferred from scRNA-seq datasets are often better or at par with the networks inferred from bulk datasets. Our analysis should be beneficial in selecting methods for network inference. At the same time, this highlights the need for improved methods and better gold standards for regulatory network inference from scRNAseq datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Seismic moment tensor classification using elliptical distribution functions on the hypersphere

Discrimination of underground explosions from naturally occurring earthquakes and other anthropogenic sources is one of the fundamental challenges of nuclear explosion monitoring. In an operational setting, the number of events that can be thoroughly investigated by analysts is limited by available resources. The capability to rapidly screen out events that can be robustly identified as not being explosions is, therefore, of great potential benefit. Nevertheless, possible mis-classification of explosions as earthquakes currently limits the use of screening methods for verification of test-ban treaties. Moment tensors provide a physics-based classification tool for the characterization of different seismic sources and have enabled the advent of new techniques for discriminating between earthquakes and explosions. Following normalization and projection of their six-degree vectors onto the hypersphere, existing screening approaches use spherically symmetric metrics to determine whether any new moment tensor may have been an explosion. Here, we show that populations of moment tensors for both earthquakes and explosions are anisotropically distributed on the hypersphere. Distributions possessing elliptical symmetry, such as the scaled von Mises–Fisher distribution, therefore provide a better description of these populations than the existing spherically symmetric models. We describe a method that uses these elliptical distributions in combination with a Bayesian classifier to achieve successful classification rates of 99 per cent for explosions and 98 per cent for earthquakes using existing catalogues of events from the western United States. The 1983 May 5 Crowdie underground nuclear test and 2018 July 20 DAG-1 deep-borehole chemical explosion are the only two explosions out of 140 that are incorrectly classified. Application of the method to the 2006–2017 nuclear tests in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea yields 100 per cent identification rates and we provide a simple routine MTid for general usage. The approach provides a means to rapidly assess the likelihood of an event being an explosion and can be built into monitoring workflows that rely on simultaneously assessing multiple different discrimination metrics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating multistation phase picking algorithm phase neural operator (PhaseNO) on local seismic networks

Reliable automatic phase picking is important for many seismic applications. With the development of machine learning approaches, many algorithms are proposed, evaluated and applied to different areas. Many of these algorithms are single station based, while recent proposed methods start to combine surrounding stations into consideration in the problem of phase picking. Among these algorithms, the phase neural operator (PhaseNO) shows promising results on regional data sets comparing to existing algorithms. But there are many use cases for the local seismic networks in our community, therefore in this paper we evaluate the performance of PhaseNO on four different local data sets and compare the results to PhaseNet and EQTransformer. We used both individual phase picking metrics as well as association metrics to illustrate the performance of PhaseNO. By manually reviewing the newly detected events, we find that the PhaseNO model outperforms the single station-based approaches in the local-scale use cases due to its consideration of coherent signals from multiple stations. We also explored PhaseNO’s behaviours when only using one station, as well as gradually increasing the number of stations in the seismic network to better understand its behaviour. Overall, using the off-the-shelf machine learning based phase pickers, PhaseNO demonstrated its good performance on local-scale seismic networks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating algorithmic bias on biomarker classification of breast cancer pathology reports

Objectives: This work evaluated algorithmic bias in biomarkers classification using electronic pathology reports from female breast cancer cases. Bias was assessed across 5 subgroups: cancer registry, race, Hispanic ethnicity, age at diagnosis, and socioeconomic status. Materials and Methods: We utilized 594 875 electronic pathology reports from 178 121 tumors diagnosed in Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Seattle, and Utah to train 2 deep-learning algorithms to classify breast cancer patients using their biomarkers test results. We used balanced error rate (BER), demographic parity (DP), equalized odds (EOD), and equal opportunity (EOP) to assess bias. Results: We found differences in predictive accuracy between registries, with the highest accuracy in the registry that contributed the most data (Seattle Registry, BER ratios for all registries >1.25). BER showed no significant algorithmic bias in extracting biomarkers (estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2) for race, Hispanic ethnicity, age at diagnosis, or socioeconomic subgroups (BER ratio <1.25). DP, EOD, and EOP all showed insignificant results. Discussion: We observed significant differences in BER by registry, but no significant bias using the DP, EOD, and EOP metrics for socio-demographic or racial categories. This highlights the importance of employing a diverse set of metrics for a comprehensive evaluation of model fairness. Conclusion: A thorough evaluation of algorithmic biases that may affect equality in clinical care is a critical step before deploying algorithms in the real world. We found little evidence of algorithmic bias in our biomarker classification tool. Artificial intelligence tools to expedite information extraction from clinical records could accelerate clinical trial matching and improve care.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Saccadic Component Measure on Smooth Pursuit Tests

ABSTRACT Introduction Despite the advancement of eye-tracking technology for smooth pursuit (SP) eye movement evaluation, qualitative observation offers much information that is not captured by computers; hence, both objective and qualitative information should be utilized to evaluate SP. This study examined the consistency among our clinicians when evaluating SP using normal (N), grossly normal (GN), mildly abnormal (MA), and abnormal (AB) as classifications. We then evaluated the effect of combining GN and MA into a single subclinical (SUBC) category. We also evaluated the computerized percent saccade (PS) metric by determining its sensitivity and specificity in classifying SP. Materials and Methods Retrospective horizontal and vertical SP test videos and numerical data for 70 participants were obtained from the Neuro Kinetics Neuro-Otologic Test Center and de-identified. From this, eye-tracking videos, time plots of eye-tracking positional data, and tables of SP eye-tracking performance data were generated for 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5 Hz in both horizontal and vertical planes, totaling 6 tests per subject. Three clinicians rated each subject’s SP performance as N, GN, MA, or AB for a total of 6 ratings (3 frequencies, horizontal and vertical). This process was repeated using N, SUBC, and AB as rating categories. Clinicians also provided an overall SP rating for each plane as follows: AB if the results were abnormal for 2 or more frequencies tested. Alternatively, if fewer than 2 frequencies presented with a rating of AB, then an overall rating of MA, GN, or N was determined at the respective clinician’s discretion. Results When the 3 clinicians were tasked with classifying SP videos using 4 clinical categories, fair overall agreement was demonstrated. However, when MA and GN categories were combined into an SUBC category, the overall agreement for the 3 clinicians improved slightly for both horizontal SP (HSP) and vertical SP (VSP). This pattern of agreement did not differ considerably when comparing HSP versus VSP, and good consistency and reliability was observed across clinicians. Again, inter-rater consistency was smaller for VSP versus HSP despite the reduction in clinical categories. Cut-off values were generated for the PS metric and demonstrated good specificity and sensitivity when they were exceeded for 2 or more frequencies in a particular plane when evaluating a subject’s SP test. Conclusions

General & Internal Medicine↗

Concordance cosmology?

ABSTRACT We propose a new intuitive metric for evaluating the tension between two experiments, and apply it to several data sets. While our metric is non-optimal, if evidence of tension is detected, this evidence is robust and easy to interpret. Assuming a flat Lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmological model, we find that there is a modest 2.2σ tension between the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 results and the Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background. This tension is driven by the difference between the amount of structure observed in the late-time Universe and that predicted from fitting the Planck data, and appears to be unrelated to the tension between Planck and local estimates of the Hubble rate. In particular, combining DES, baryon acoustic oscillations, big bang nucleosynthesis, and supernovae measurements recover a Hubble constant and sound horizon consistent with Planck, and in tension with local distance–ladder measurements. If the tension between these various data sets persists, it is likely that reconciling all current data will require breaking the flat ΛCDM model in at least two different ways: one involving new physics in the early Universe, and one involving new late-time Universe physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dissect two-halo galactic conformity effect for central galaxies: the dependence of star formation activities on the large-scale environment

We investigate the two-halo galactic conformity effect for central galaxies, which is the spatial correlation of the star formation activities for central galaxies to several Mpcs, by studying the dependence of the star formation activities of central galaxies on their large-scale structure in our local Universe using the SDSS data. Here we adopt a novel environment metric using only central galaxies quantified by the distance to the nth nearest central galaxy. This metric measures the environment within an aperture from ∼1 to ≳ 10 Mpc, with a median value of ∼4 Mpc. We found that two kinds of conformity effects in our local Universe. The first one is that low-mass central galaxies are more quenched in high-density regions, and we found that this effect mainly comes from low-mass centrals that are close to a more massive halo. A similar trend is also found in the IllustrisTNG simulation, which can be entirely explained by backsplash galaxies. The second conformity effect is that massive central galaxies in low-density regions are more star-forming. This population of galaxies also possesses a higher fraction of spiral morphology and lower central stellar velocity dispersion, suggesting that their low quiescent fraction is due to less-frequent major merger events experienced in the low-density regions and, as a consequence, less-massive bulges and central black holes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantum properties of non-Dirichlet boundary conditions in gravity

The Euclidean path integral for gravity is enriched by the addition of boundaries, which provide useful probes of thermodynamic properties. Common boundary conditions include Dirichlet conditions on the boundary induced metric; microcanonical conditions, which refers to fixing some components of the Brown-York boundary stress tensor; and conformal conditions, in which the conformal structure of the induced metric and the trace of the extrinsic curvature are fixed. Boundaries also present interesting problems of consistency. The Dirichlet problem is known, under various (and generally different) conditions, to be inconsistent with perturbative quantization of graviton fluctuations, to exhibit thermodynamic instability, or to require infinite fine-tuning in the presence of matter fluctuations. We extend some of these results to other boundary conditions. We find that similarly to the Dirichlet problem, the graviton fluctuation operator is not elliptic with microcanonical boundaries, and the nonelliptic modes correspond to “boundary-moving diffeomorphisms.” However, we argue that microcanonical factorization of path integrals—essentially, the insertion of microcanonical constraints on two-sided surfaces in the bulk—is not affected by the same issues of ellipticity. We also show that for a variety of matter field boundary conditions, matter fluctuations renormalize the gravitational bulk and boundary terms differently, so that the classical microcanonical or conformal variational problems are not preserved unless an infinite fine-tuning is performed.

Draper, Patrick [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champ↗