Approximate Forest Completion and Learning-Augmented Algorithms for Metric Minimum Spanning Trees
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Advancing Medium–and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Adoption Models With Novel Natural Language Processing Metrics
Thesis to support the requirements for graduation with the degree of Master of Science in Systems Engineering.
Ouren, Fletcher↗
An investigation of fighter aircraft agility
This report attempts to unify in a single document the results of a series of studies on fighter aircraft agility funded by the NASA Ames Research Center, Dryden Flight Research Facility and conducted at the University of Kansas Flight Research Laboratory during the period January 1989 through December 1993. New metrics proposed by pilots and the research community to assess fighter aircraft agility are collected and analyzed. The report develops a framework for understanding the context into which the various proposed fighter agility metrics fit in terms of application and testing. Since new metrics continue to be proposed, this report does not claim to contain every proposed fighter agility metric. Flight test procedures, test constraints, and related criteria are developed. Instrumentation required to quantify agility via flight test is considered, as is the sensitivity of the candidate metrics to deviations from nominal pilot command inputs, which is studied in detail. Instead of supplying specific, detailed conclusions about the relevance or utility of one candidate metric versus another, the authors have attempted to provide sufficient data and analyses for readers to formulate their own conclusions. Readers are therefore ultimately responsible for judging exactly which metrics are 'best' for their particular needs. Additionally, it is not the intent of the authors to suggest combat tactics or other actual operational uses of the results and data in this report. This has been left up to the user community. Twenty of the candidate agility metrics were selected for evaluation with high fidelity, nonlinear, non real-time flight simulation computer programs of the F-5A Freedom Fighter, F-16A Fighting Falcon, F-18A Hornet, and X-29A. The information and data presented on the 20 candidate metrics which were evaluated will assist interested readers in conducting their own extensive investigations. The report provides a definition and analysis of each metric; details of how to test and measure the metric, including any special data reduction requirements; typical values for the metric obtained using one or more aircraft types; and a sensitivity analysis if applicable. The report is organized as follows. The first chapter in the report presents a historical review of air combat trends which demonstrate the need for agility metrics in assessing the combat performance of fighter aircraft in a modern, all-aspect missile environment. The second chapter presents a framework for classifying each candidate metric according to time scale (transient, functional, instantaneous), further subdivided by axis (pitch, lateral, axial). The report is then broadly divided into two parts, with the transient agility metrics (pitch lateral, axial) covered in chapters three, four, and five, and the functional agility metrics covered in chapter six. Conclusions, recommendations, and an extensive reference list and biography are also included. Five appendices contain a comprehensive list of the definitions of all the candidate metrics; a description of the aircraft models and flight simulation programs used for testing the metrics; several relations and concepts which are fundamental to the study of lateral agility; an in-depth analysis of the axial agility metrics; and a derivation of the relations for the instantaneous agility and their approximations.
Valasek, John↗
Quantifying Thermal Performance of the Building Envelope - Beyond Common Practice
Performance metrics serve as useful tools and indicators for many applications. For the building industry, various metrics exist; typically, these metrics do not assess the whole building performance. Instead, these represent separate components or heat transfer mechanisms of a building like R-value, U-factor/value, and airtightness. The mechanisms defined under these metrics all contribute significantly to the overall thermal performance of a building but will rarely act independently. There are metrics that account for the overall energy performance of a building, such as Energy Use Intensity (EUI). However, these metrics tend to be highly influenced by how the building is operated and used. There are also metrics which provide assessment on a relative basis. These indices are based upon comparison to a baseline, which complicates meaningful metric-based energy analyses. This paper presents a performance metric developed to account for various thermal properties and behaviors of a building. The metric accounts for all the relevant mechanisms that influence heat losses and gains in buildings and is thus directly related to the energy performance. In addition, the metric is designed to comprise air infiltration and allows users to account for workmanship quality, and imperfections of the building thermal resistance due to penetrations and other installations. This paper will describe how the metric can be applied for various building types and in different climates.
Pallin, Simon B.↗
Image Correlation Pattern Optimization for Micro-Scale In-Situ Strain Measurements
The accuracy and precision of digital image correlation (DIC) is a function of three primary ingredients: image acquisition, image analysis, and the subject of the image. Development of the first two (i.e. image acquisition techniques and image correlation algorithms) has led to widespread use of DIC; however, fewer developments have been focused on the third ingredient. Typically, subjects of DIC images are mechanical specimens with either a natural surface pattern or a pattern applied to the surface. Research in the area of DIC patterns has primarily been aimed at identifying which surface patterns are best suited for DIC, by comparing patterns to each other. Because the easiest and most widespread methods of applying patterns have a high degree of randomness associated with them (e.g., airbrush, spray paint, particle decoration, etc.), less effort has been spent on exact construction of ideal patterns. With the development of patterning techniques such as microstamping and lithography, patterns can be applied to a specimen pixel by pixel from a patterned image. In these cases, especially because the patterns are reused many times, an optimal pattern is sought such that error introduced into DIC from the pattern is minimized. DIC consists of tracking the motion of an array of nodes from a reference image to a deformed image. Every pixel in the images has an associated intensity (grayscale) value, with discretization depending on the bit depth of the image. Because individual pixel matching by intensity value yields a non-unique scale-dependent problem, subsets around each node are used for identification. A correlation criteria is used to find the best match of a particular subset of a reference image within a deformed image. The reader is referred to references for enumerations of typical correlation criteria. As illustrated by Schreier and Sutton and Lu and Cary systematic errors can be introduced by representing the underlying deformation with under-matched shape functions. An important implication, as discussed by Sutton et al., is that in the presence of highly localized deformations (e.g., crack fronts), error can be reduced by minimizing the subset size. In other words, smaller subsets allow the more accurate resolution of localized deformations. Contrarily, the choice of optimal subset size has been widely studied and a general consensus is that larger subsets with more information content are less prone to random error. Thus, an optimal subset size balances the systematic error from under matched deformations with random error from measurement noise. The alternative approach pursued in the current work is to choose a small subset size and optimize the information content within (i.e., optimizing an applied DIC pattern), rather than finding an optimal subset size. In the literature, many pattern quality metrics have been proposed, e.g., sum of square intensity gradient (SSSIG), mean subset fluctuation, gray level co-occurrence, autocorrelation-based metrics, and speckle-based metrics. The majority of these metrics were developed to quantify the quality of common pseudo-random patterns after they have been applied, and were not created with the intent of pattern generation. As such, it is found that none of the metrics examined in this study are fit to be the objective function of a pattern generation optimization. In some cases, such as with speckle-based metrics, application to pixel by pixel patterns is ill-conditioned and requires somewhat arbitrary extensions. In other cases, such as with the SSSIG, it is shown that trivial solutions exist for the optimum of the metric which are ill-suited for DIC (such as a checkerboard pattern). In the current work, a multi-metric optimization method is proposed whereby quality is viewed as a combination of individual quality metrics. Specifically, SSSIG and two auto-correlation metrics are used which have generally competitive objectives. Thus, each metric could be viewed as a constraint imposed upon the others, thereby precluding the achievement of their trivial solutions. In this way, optimization produces a pattern which balances the benefits of multiple quality metrics. The resulting pattern, along with randomly generated patterns, is subjected to numerical deformations and analyzed with DIC software. The optimal pattern is shown to outperform randomly generated patterns.
Bomarito, G. F.↗
Understanding software faults and their role in software reliability modeling
This study is a direct result of an on-going project to model the reliability of a large real-time control avionics system. In previous modeling efforts with this system, hardware reliability models were applied in modeling the reliability behavior of this system. In an attempt to enhance the performance of the adapted reliability models, certain software attributes were introduced in these models to control for differences between programs and also sequential executions of the same program. As the basic nature of the software attributes that affect software reliability become better understood in the modeling process, this information begins to have important implications on the software development process. A significant problem arises when raw attribute measures are to be used in statistical models as predictors, for example, of measures of software quality. This is because many of the metrics are highly correlated. Consider the two attributes: lines of code, LOC, and number of program statements, Stmts. In this case, it is quite obvious that a program with a high value of LOC probably will also have a relatively high value of Stmts. In the case of low level languages, such as assembly language programs, there might be a one-to-one relationship between the statement count and the lines of code. When there is a complete absence of linear relationship among the metrics, they are said to be orthogonal or uncorrelated. Usually the lack of orthogonality is not serious enough to affect a statistical analysis. However, for the purposes of some statistical analysis such as multiple regression, the software metrics are so strongly interrelated that the regression results may be ambiguous and possibly even misleading. Typically, it is difficult to estimate the unique effects of individual software metrics in the regression equation. The estimated values of the coefficients are very sensitive to slight changes in the data and to the addition or deletion of variables in the regression equation. Since most of the existing metrics have common elements and are linear combinations of these common elements, it seems reasonable to investigate the structure of the underlying common factors or components that make up the raw metrics. The technique we have chosen to use to explore this structure is a procedure called principal components analysis. Principal components analysis is a decomposition technique that may be used to detect and analyze collinearity in software metrics. When confronted with a large number of metrics measuring a single construct, it may be desirable to represent the set by some smaller number of variables that convey all, or most, of the information in the original set. Principal components are linear transformations of a set of random variables that summarize the information contained in the variables. The transformations are chosen so that the first component accounts for the maximal amount of variation of the measures of any possible linear transform; the second component accounts for the maximal amount of residual variation; and so on. The principal components are constructed so that they represent transformed scores on dimensions that are orthogonal. Through the use of principal components analysis, it is possible to have a set of highly related software attributes mapped into a small number of uncorrelated attribute domains. This definitively solves the problem of multi-collinearity in subsequent regression analysis. There are many software metrics in the literature, but principal component analysis reveals that there are few distinct sources of variation, i.e. dimensions, in this set of metrics. It would appear perfectly reasonable to characterize the measurable attributes of a program with a simple function of a small number of orthogonal metrics each of which represents a distinct software attribute domain.
Munson, John C.↗
Systems Engineering Techniques for ALS Decision Making
The Advanced Life Support (ALS) Metric is the predominant tool for predicting the cost of ALS systems. Metric goals for the ALS Program are daunting, requiring a threefold increase in the ALS Metric by 2010. Confounding the problem, the rate new ALS technologies reach the maturity required for consideration in the ALS Metric and the rate at which new configurations are developed is slow, limiting the search space and potentially giving the perspective of a ALS technology, the ALS Metric may remain elusive. This paper is a sequel to a paper published in the proceedings of the 2003 ICES conference entitled, "Managing to the metric: an approach to optimizing life support costs." The conclusions of that paper state that the largest contributors to the ALS Metric should be targeted by ALS researchers and management for maximum metric reductions. Certainly, these areas potentially offer large potential benefits to future ALS missions; however, the ALS Metric is not the only decision-making tool available to the community. To facilitate decision-making within the ALS community a combination of metrics should be utilized, such as the Equivalent System Mass (ESM)-based ALS metric, but also those available through techniques such as life cycle costing and faithful consideration of the sensitivity of the assumed models and data. Often a lack of data is cited as the reason why these techniques are not considered for utilization. An existing database development effort within the ALS community, known as OPIS, may provide the opportunity to collect the necessary information to enable the proposed systems analyses. A review of these additional analysis techniques is provided, focusing on the data necessary to enable these. The discussion is concluded by proposing how the data may be utilized by analysts in the future.
Rodriquez, Luis F.↗
“One Table to Rule Them All”: How a Single Table can Enable Extensive Insights, Analytics and Assessment on Human Mobility Data
While much research has been conducted in Human Mobility Science, most studies on the analytics/insights part generally focus on one of the following: processing and analytics on human stop-trip behavior, design of individual mobility metrics (often in silos), calculation and characterization of only a handful (typically 5-6) of human mobility metrics on geospatial-temporal human mobility data of interest. Although human mobility research offers a vast and diverse array of available metrics, most individual studies typically compute only a small subset of five or six metrics at a time when analyzing trajectory datasets of human mobility across different areas of interest. This paper is motivated by the critical need to repeatedly compute an extensive array of human mobility metrics across several trajectory datasets and perform individual metric-level benchmarking to establish a new, standardized Test and Evaluation (T&E) suite for the field of Human Mobility Science. We first present our findings on the minimal yet sufficient pre-processing required to reliably and efficiently compute a wide range of human mobility metrics. The key findings are specifically related to the proposed Composite Stop Locations table, which serves as a core pre-processing data layer. Subsequently, we present a case study demonstrating how the Composite Stop Locations table facilitates computation of at least 14 distinct human mobility metrics (unlike 5-6 different set of metrics used for studies in the literature) using the popular and open-source OpenPFLOW dataset. Finally, we have also presented an example of our benchmarking methodology to evaluate the quality and performance of the trajectory dataset of interest, assessed across multiple human mobility metrics.
De, Debraj [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000233630020)↗
Wind tunnel balance
A flow-through balance is provided which includes a non-metric portion and a metric portion which form a fluid-conducting passage in fluid communication with an internal bore in the sting. The non-metric and metric portions of the balance are integrally connected together by a plurality of flexure beams such that the non-metric portion, the metric portion and the flexure beams form a one-piece construction which eliminates mechanical hysteresis between the non-metric and the metric portion. The system includes structures for preventing the effects of temperature, pressure and pressurized fluid from producing asymmetric loads on the flexure beams. A temperature sensor and a pressure sensor are located within the fluid-conducting passage of the balance. The system includes a longitudinal bellows member connected at two ends to one of the non-metric portion and the metric portion and at an intermediate portion thereof to the other of (1) and (2). A plurality of strain gages are mounted on the flexure beams to measure strain forces on the flexure beams. The flexure beams are disposed so as to enable symmetric forces on the flexure beams to cancel out so that only asymmetric forces are measured as deviations by the strain gages.
Horne, Warren L.↗
Optimizing Rate of Penetration and Tripping Decision-Making using Real-Time Bit Wear Monitoring While Drilling Geothermal Wells
Understanding bit wear while drilling is critical to minimizing non-productive time (NPT) and optimizing rate of penetration (ROP). Lengthening drilling runs with damaged bits does not only lower the ROP, but also elevates the risk of inducing severe bit damage, which could potentially lead to time-consuming fishing operations. When drillers believe the bit has worn off substantially, the bit is tripped out to be replaced. On geothermal wells, tripping can take up to 20% of the overall well construction time, and this is generally acknowledged as an opportunity for improvement. Ideally, a bit run should be terminated before the bit is damaged beyond repair. At the same time, premature bit pulls are to be avoided as well. This study aims to leverage bit and tooth wear metrics that can be obtained in real time to characterize bit condition in order to optimize ROP and determine the optimal time to pull the bit. Two metrics were explored in this study: a bit wear metric that incorporated depth-of-cut, and a tooth wear metric developed by Bourgoyne & Young characterizing the state of bit teeth dull. Both metrics were computed using recorded data from 12¼ inches roller cone insert bit runs in five geothermal wells targeting a granodiorite formation in the western United States. Together with the actual dull grades, determined after the bits were pulled to surface, the metric trends were interpreted to characterize the downhole bit condition and identify the point at which the bit should have optimally been tripped out. The insights from studying the actual dull grades and how they relate to the two metrics were used to establish a reliable bit pull criterion. The bit wear metric trend correctly showed a noticeable departure from baseline for bits experiencing major dulling behavior. Additionally, the tooth wear model predicted the cutter dull within two dull grades for most runs, with better performance in predicting the inner teeth dull. Moreover, the combination of the bit wear and tooth wear metrics was effective in revealing the cause of the bit performance impairment. Proactive tracking of these two metrics in real-time can facilitate geothermal drilling ROP optimization and better-informed tripping decision-making, thereby avoiding wasted time and cost.
Ashari, Rahmat↗
Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles
Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.
Baker, Noel C.↗
Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles
Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.
Baker, Noel C.↗
MH-1A Sturgis Decommissioning and Dismantlement - 20281
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) with its prime contractor, Aptim Federal Services, LLC (APTIM), recycled 5,260 metric tons (11.6 million pounds) of material from Sturgis Barge (Sturgis) during the Decommissioning and Dismantlement of the MH-1A nuclear power reactor. The overall objective of the project was to reduce residual radioactivity associated with MH-1A to levels that permitted release of Sturgis for dismantlement and termination of the Army Reactor Office permit. By effectively applying waste hierarchy's three Rs - reduce, reuse and recycle - the Sturgis project not only minimized the amount of waste that required disposal at landfills, but also reduced the potential for long-term environmental liability emanating from these landfills. The project team completed the physical decommissioning efforts in June 2018 in Galveston, TX. In September 2018, radiological surveys were completed to demonstrate the vessel could be released for shipbreaking. Sturgis was towed from Galveston, TX to Brownsville, TX in late September 2018. Shipbreaking, dismantlement and recycling efforts began in early October 2018 and were completed on 15 March 2019. As part of the decommissioning effort in Galveston, the team shipped 69 shipments (860 metric tons) of low-level radioactive waste and radioactive components to the Waste Control Specialist (WCS) facility in Andrews TX for disposal. Certain radioactive components had to be transferred to the Department of Energy prior to placing the materials into the Federal Waste Facility located within WCS. However, most of the radioactive waste was characterized, profiled, approved and managed under the WCS permitted radioactive waste exemption process authorized and implemented by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and the Radioactive Materials Division. This allows LLRW and LLMW to be shipped as regulated waste and then upon receipt at WCS through satisfying the relevant waste acceptance criteria the waste is exempted and placed into the WCS RCRA permitted cell. An additional 35 shipments (544 metric ton) of contaminated hazardous waste water were transported to U.S. Ecology in Robstown, TX for treatment/disposal. An additional 36 shipments (500 metric tons) of non-hazardous wastewater was sent to Republic Waste Services' facility in Fresno, TX. The disposal of these materials required close coordination with State of Texas regulators. During decommissioning, the project team recycled approximately 270 metric tons (600,000 pounds) of lead and steel. As part of the dismantlement in Brownsville, TX the team recycled approximately 5,000 metric tons (11 million pounds) of ferrous and non-ferrous material, limiting our disposal requirements to about 180 metric tons (400,000 pounds) of material (<4% from entire shipbreaking activity). Although the primary hazard being mitigated by this project was radiological, recycling was always a priority for the project. The team strived to achieve sustainability goals as we implemented this one of a kind project. Scrap metal recycling has a large positive impact on the environment and can also favorably impact project disposal costs. Steel is among the most recycled material in the world. Nearly 40% of the world's steel production is made from scrap. Recycling steel also requires 75% less energy than producing it from raw materials. By using recycled steel rather than virgin materials, 2.33 kg of carbon emissions are eliminated per kg of steel [1]. The project recycled more than 4,500 metric tons (10 million pounds) of steel, which eliminated about 10,400 metric tons (23 million pounds) of CO{sub 2}. By implementing a recycling initiative for the Sturgis project, the team was able to realize cost avoidance for disposal of scrap, cost savings from the metals recycled, plus the project provided benefits to the environment through our recycling efforts. Once the dismantlement was complete, the team prepared a detailed decommissioning closure report, which allowed for the termination of the Army Reactor Decommissioning Permit. While it not only reduced any potential long-term environmental liability, this project to decommission and dismantle a floating nuclear power plant is truly unprecedented - it is a prime example of the USACE mission which is: 'Engineering solutions for the Nation's toughest challenges'. This unique, one of a kind, historical power plant was never designed to be taken apart, and the available information about its construction was lacking in many details. The hazards that required mitigation dictated a painstaking and deliberate process in order to avoid any release to the environment and the community, and to protect the health and safety of the workers involved while keeping the waste hierarchy's three R's - reduce, reuse and recycle at the forefront. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Quantifying the effect of hydride microstructure on zirconium alloys embrittlement using image analysis
Since hydride microstructure can significantly influence Zr alloy nuclear fuel cladding’s ductility, a new metric has been developed to quantify hydride microstructure in 2D micrographs and relate it to crack propagation. As cladding failure usually results from a hoop stress, this new metric, called the Radial Hydride Continuous Path (RHCP), is based on quantifying the continuity of brittle hydride particles along the radial direction of the cladding tube. Compared to previous metrics, this approach more closely relates to the propensity of a crack to propagate radially through the cladding tube thickness. The RHCP takes into account hydride length, orientation, and connectivity to choose the optimal path for crack propagation through the cladding thickness. The RHCP can therefore be more closely linked to hydride embrittlement of the Zr alloy material, thus creating a relationship between material structure, properties, and performance. The new definition, along with previously proposed metrics such as the Radial Hydride Fraction (RHF), the Hydride Continuity Coefficient (HCC), and the Radial Hydride Continuity Factor (RHCF), have been implemented and automated in MATLAB. These codes are made available with this publication as supplementary materials. These metrics were verified by comparing their predictions of hydride morphology against expected values in simple cases, and the implementation of the new metric was validated by comparing its predictions with manual measurements of hydride microstructure performed on ImageJ. The RHCP was also validated against experimental measurements of fracture behavior and it was shown to correlate with cladding failure better than previous metrics. The information provided by these metrics will help accurately assess cladding integrity during operation, transportation, and storage.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
The Power of Many: An Ensemble Approach to Spectral Similarity
Quantifying the similarity between two mass spectra─a known reference mass spectrum and an unidentified sample mass spectrum─is at the heart of compound identification workflows in gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The reference spectrum most like the sample is assigned as its identification (provided some quantitative similarity threshold is met, e.g., 80%) and thus accurately measuring similarity is essential. Significant research has gone toward developing metrics for this purpose, each of which has attempted to improve upon existing methods by incorporating GC-MS-specific information (e.g., peak ratios or retention times) or adopting various statistical and algorithmic frameworks. While this active development has led to a plethora of similarity metrics with demonstrated value across different contexts, the unfortunate consequence has been confusion surrounding which metric should be used as a global standard. No such metric is currently accepted as the standard method because different metrics have demonstrated optimal performance in different contexts. In this work, we propose an ensemble approach to spectral similarity scoring that combines the collective information from across existing similarity metrics to form an improved, globally representative similarity metric as a step toward establishing a global standard method. In conclusion, the resulting ensemble metrics are evaluated on over 88,000 spectra of varying complexity and demonstrate improved abilities to accurately rank the correct reference spectrum as the top-matching candidate for a sample relative to the rankings generated by individual similarity scores.
Carbohydrates↗
A Guide for Improved Resource Adequacy Assessments in Evolving Power Systems: Institutional and Technical Dimensions
This paper identifies and evaluates issues in traditional resource adequacy (RA) assessment practices, and how adjusting these practices may affect and depend on existing institutional arrangements for planning and procurement. The paper proposes a technical-institutional roadmap that would allow regulators in vertically-integrated jurisdictions and system planners and operators in restructured jurisdictions to revise RA practices across a range of components. First, we compile a critical review of current RA assessment practices based on (1) interviews with RA practitioners and (2) a review of recent technical literature. We find that (i) RA may need to expand beyond capacity adequacy to ensure energy adequacy – relevant for energy-limited resources such as storage – and potentially some form of ancillary service adequacy (e.g. enough ramping-up and ramping-down capability in the system); (ii) chronological hourly simulations for all hours in the year are the current best practice; (iii) metrics and models used do not reflect economic criteria in system operation and loss of load; and (iv) there is a need to improve representation of weather dependencies and weather data. Second, we review planning and RA reports for several private and public entities that plan generation and/or transmission infrastructure in the continental U.S. to look for existing practices involving resilience assessments. We find no systematic treatment of the costs of extreme weather and other hazards, the benefits of resilience, and resilience metrics in planning analyses and no systematic treatment of resilience metrics, methods, and outcomes for resource adequacy purposes. Third, we create a technical framework for probabilistic RA assessment and use it to study how key choices about how to model power system operations affect the values that are obtained for RA metrics. We find that (i) non-economic dispatch schemes that ignore economic objectives can lead to accurate RA assessments when coordinated with detailed operational strategies; (ii) multi-year data is critical to capture a wide variety of system conditions; (iii) not incorporating transmission limits into RA assessment could lead to substantial underestimation of traditional “expected value” RA metrics; and (iv) new RA metrics that capture event-specific shortfall characteristics should be used as supplements to traditional metrics. Finally, we examine RA assessments and use this information to propose a guide of evolving industry standards for resource adequacy assessments in resource planning and transmission planning. We report minimum, best, and frontier practices for temporal resolution of assessments, metrics and targets, weather data, load forecasting, characterization of variable renewable resources, characterization of transmission and market transactions, RA modeling and integration with planning processes, and capacity accreditation.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Development of a Comparison Framework for Evaluating Environmental Contours of Extreme Sea States
Environmental contours of extreme sea states are often utilized for the purposes of reliability-based offshore design. Many methods have been proposed to estimate environmental contours of extreme sea states, including, but not limited to, the traditional inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) and subsequent modifications, copula methods, and Monte Carlo methods. These methods differ in terms of both the methodology selected for defining the joint distribution of sea state parameters and in the method used to construct the environmental contour from the joint distribution. It is often difficult to compare the results of proposed methods to determine which method should be used for a particular application or geographical region. The comparison of the predictions from various contour methods at a single site and across many sites is important to making environmental contours of extreme sea states useful in practice. The goal of this paper is to develop a comparison framework for evaluating methods for developing environmental contours of extreme sea states. This paper develops generalized metrics for comparing the performance of contour methods to one another across a collection of study sites, and applies these metrics and methods to develop conclusions about trends in the wave resource across geographic locations, as demonstrated for a pilot dataset. These proposed metrics and methods are intended to judge the environmental contours themselves relative to other contour methods, and are thus agnostic to a specific device, structure, or field of application. The metrics developed and applied in this paper include measures of predictive accuracy, physical validity, and aggregated temporal performance that can be used to both assess contour methods and provide recommendations for the use of certain methods in various geographical regions. The application and aggregation of the metrics proposed in this paper outline a comparison framework for environmental contour methods that can be applied to support design analysis workflows for offshore structures. This comparison framework could be extended in future work to include additional metrics of interest, potentially including those to address issues pertinent to a specific application area or analysis discipline, such as metrics related to structural response across contour methods or additional physics-based metrics based on wave dynamics.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Using System Mass (SM), Equivalent Mass (EM), Equivalent System Mass (ESM) or Life Cycle Mass (LCM) in Advanced Life Support (ALS) Reporting
The Advanced Life Support (ALS) has used a single number, Equivalent System Mass (ESM), for both reporting progress and technology selection. ESM is the launch mass required to provide a space system. ESM indicates launch cost. ESM alone is inadequate for technology selection, which should include other metrics such as Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and also consider perfom.arxe 2nd risk. ESM has proven difficult to implement as a reporting metric, partly because it includes non-mass technology selection factors. Since it will not be used exclusively for technology selection, a new reporting metric can be made easier to compute and explain. Systems design trades-off performance, cost, and risk, but a risk weighted cost/benefit metric would be too complex to report. Since life support has fixed requirements, different systems usually have roughly equal performance. Risk is important since failure can harm the crew, but it is difficult to treat simply. Cost is not easy to estimate, but preliminary space system cost estimates are usually based on mass, which is better estimated than cost. Amass-based cost estimate, similar to ESM, would be a good single reporting metric. The paper defines and compares four mass-based cost estimates, Equivalent Mass (EM), Equivalent System Mass (ESM), Life Cycle Mass (LCM), and System Mass (SM). EM is traditional in life support and includes mass, volume, power, cooling and logistics. ESM is the specifically defined ALS metric, which adds crew time and possibly other cost factors to EM. LCM is a new metric, a mass-based estimate of LCC measured in mass units. SM includes only the factors of EM that are originally measured in mass, the hardware and logistics mass. All four mass-based metrics usually give similar comparisons. SM is by far the simplest to compute and easiest to explain.
Jones, Harry↗