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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,081 records · Page 60
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A tale of two towers: comparing NEON and AmeriFlux data streams at Bartlett Experimental Forest

Long-term ecological data are essential for detecting impacts of climate change and other global change factors, and for making informed predictions about future change. However, long-term measurements are rarely replicated at the site level, which raises questions about their representativeness. We used a multiscale approach to evaluate the agreement of parallel observations from AmeriFlux and NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network) towers at Bartlett Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA. The two towers are separated by a horizontal distance of 93 m. Here, we focused our analysis on standard meteorological variables; fluxes of CO 2 , sensible heat, and latent heat measured by eddy covariance; and phenology derived from PhenoCam imagery. Results suggest excellent agreement between AmeriFlux and NEON in meteorology and phenology, and good agreement in fluxes at the half-hourly scale. However, large disagreements in CO 2 and latent heat fluxes occurred at the annual scale, with implications especially for the forest carbon balance. The AmeriFlux tower measurements indicate a site that is close to carbon-neutral (-8 ± 65 g C m -2 y -1 , mean ± 1 SD), whereas the NEON tower measurements indicate a forest that is a carbon sink (-137 ± 10 g C m -2 y -1 ). Causes of this disagreement may include measurement height (26 m vs. 35 m), which resulted in different flux footprints being measured by the two towers, and differences in the flux measurement systems. Our results suggest the need for caution when attempting to merge long-term flux data from two different measurement platforms, and when using measurements from any one measurement platform to inform decision-making on issues related to carbon accounting or natural climate solutions.

Carbon cycle↗
DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities for bioenergy crops to support transitions from irrigated agriculture and conserve the U.S. High Plains Aquifer

This study investigates potential economic and groundwater driven transitions from irrigated maize production—the dominant irrigated cropping system in the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) region—to alternative crops such as sorghum and switchgrass, two common bioenergy feedstocks. Unsustainable groundwater extraction in the U.S. High Plains presents critical challenges including reduced irrigation capacities, diminished crop yields, lower land values, and escalating energy costs. Using a spatially explicit optimization framework combined with comprehensive economic and hydrogeological data, we evaluate optimal land-use strategies and irrigation system investments over a 30-year planning period. Results indicate significant regional variability in the future economic viability of irrigated agriculture, driven by differences in aquifer recharge rates, groundwater availability, and market conditions. Nebraska and parts of northern Texas can sustain irrigated maize profitability due to relatively favorable groundwater conditions and lower land rents, respectively. In contrast, many portions of Kansas and southern Texas are more likely to transition to dryland agriculture within two decades. Colorado and New Mexico show potential for significant adoption of switchgrass production as an alternative biomass-based energy crop. Overall, over the 30-year horizon, our model implies that approximately 23% of currently irrigated maize area across the HPA region may transition to dryland farming under business-as-usual conditions. This transition is complemented by a threefold increase in non-irrigated sorghum production, from 0.20 to 0.77 Mt yr−1, indicating that groundwater-driven shifts in agricultural production may support a larger regional base for bioenergy feedstocks. The study also reveals opportunities for producers to optimize economic returns and biomass production potential.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression

Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extension of SCALE/Sampler’s sensitivity analysis

Nuclear data are a major source of uncertainties in reactor physics calculations. The propagation of nuclear data uncertainties to important system responses is instrumental when determining appropriate safety margins in reactor safety analyses. It is also important to understand the major contributors to the observed uncertainties to make recommendations for further measurements and evaluations and aid in the understanding of the studied system. The SCALE code system allows for nuclear data uncertainty analysis based on the random sampling approach as implemented in SCALE’s Sampler sequence. Sampler was recently extended by a sensitivity analysis in terms of the calculation of two correlation-based sensitivity indices. This analysis allows for the identification of the top contributing nuclear reactions to any analyzed output uncertainty. This paper presents the sensitivity indices, along with their interpretation and limitations. It demonstrates the application in an eigenvalue and decay heat analysis for a boiling water reactor fuel assembly.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

A study on the impact of using a subchannel resolution for modeling of large break loss of coolant accidents

The nuclear industry is investigating the feasibility of transitioning from 18- to 24-month fuel cycles because of the positive impact it would have on the operational costs for the current fleet of light-water reactors. A challenge to making this change is the increased risk of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) due to the known potential for ceramic fuel to pulverize into fine particles at the higher discharge burnups. Previous work has been performed by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program to assess FFRD risk in high-burnup cores using the BISON fuel performance code and a coarse mesh thermal hydraulics (T/H) solution for a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) using the TRACE system T/H code. Because of the importance of the T/H solution for FFRD assessment, this study seeks to investigate the impact of using higher-fidelity subchannel techniques for modeling of the LOCA transient. CTF was used to model a subregion of a high-burnup core that was depleted by the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) multiphysics core simulator. Both coarse-mesh and pin-resolved models were created in CTF, and a consistent coarse-mesh TRACE model was also developed to allow for benchmarking the code results. Further, a large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) reflood transient was simulated using these three models, and results were compared. Results showed some consistent differences between the CTF and TRACE coarse models, including a higher peak cladding temperature (PCT) prediction in CTF and later quenching in CTF; however, the transient clad temperature behavior was similar, and these differences are likely due to post-critical heat flux heat transfer modeling differences and minimum film boiling temperature model differences. The pin-resolved results indicate that the PCT in the lumped model is often under-predicted by as much as 70 °C and that PCT occurs at a different location than the high-power pin in the assembly. The lumped model predicts a difference of 10 °C or less between the average and hot pins in the assembly, whereas the pin-resolved model predicts a range of over 100 °C. These results indicate that higher-fidelity T/H results may have an impact on predicted core behavior during LOCA, which may be important to consider when assessing FFRD risk.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Canonical scalar field inflation with a Woods–Saxon potential

This paper focuses on the realization of an inflationary model from a canonical scalar field theory with a Woods–Saxon potential, in the slow-roll approximation. Our analysis indicates that the observable quantities derived theoretically from our model, namely the spectral index of the primordial scalar curvature perturbations and the tensor-to-scalar ratio, are compatible with the latest Planck collaboration data. We also discuss the qualitative features of the potential, and we show that the value of the scalar field for which the graceful exit occurs, coincides with the inflection point of the scalar potential. We also attempt to study the post-inflation reheating phase of the model, in order to further examine the viability of the Woods–Saxon scalar field model, and as we demonstrate the results indicate viability of the model for this era too, however the instantaneous reheating is not allowed for the model at hand.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of the locally self-consistent embedding approach to the Anderson model with non-uniform random distributions

Highlights: • Typical Medium Theory (TMT) for the Anderson Localization. • Locally Self-Consistent Multiple Scattering Method (LSMS) for Random Disordered Systems. • Linear Scaling Computational Method for Random Disordered Systems. We apply the recently developed embedding scheme for the locally self-consistent method to random disorder electrons systems. The method is based on the locally self-consistent multiple scattering theory and the typical medium theory. The locally self-consistent multiple scattering theory divides a system into many small designated local interaction zones. The subsystem within each local interaction zone is embedded in a self-consistent field from the typical medium theory. This approximation allows the study of random systems with large numbers of sites. We present results for the three dimensional Anderson model with different random disorder potential distributions. Using the typical density of states as an indicator of Anderson localization, we find that the method can capture the localization for commonly studied disorder potentials. These include the uniform distribution, the Gaussian distribution, and even the unbounded Cauchy distribution.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Redox oxide@molten salt as a generalized catalyst design strategy for oxidative dehydrogenation of ethane via selective hydrogen combustion

Here, the current study demonstrates a redox oxide @ molten salt core-shell architecture as a generalized redox catalyst design strategy for chemical looping – oxidative dehydrogenation of ethane. 17 combinations of redox active oxides and molten salts were prepared, evaluated, and characterized. X-ray diffraction indicates that the redox oxides and molten salts are fully compatible, forming separate and stable phases. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy demonstrates that the molten salts aggregate at the redox oxide surface, forming a core-shell structure to block the non-selective sites responsible for CO x formation. Up to ~74% single-pass olefin yields were achieved using the proposed redox catalyst design strategy. Statistical analyses of the performance data indicate the potential to achieve up to 86.7% single-pass yield by simply optimizing the operating conditions using the redox catalysts reported in this study. Meanwhile, the generalizability of the catalyst design strategy offers exciting opportunities to further optimize the composition and performance of the redox catalysts for ethane ODH under a chemical looping scheme with significantly reduced energy consumption and CO 2 emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Influence of residual chlorine on Ru/TiO 2 active sites during CO 2 methanation

Titania-supported ruthenium (Ru/TiO 2 ) is an established catalyst for the hydrogenation of carbon dioxide to methane (Sabatier reaction). Chlorine contamination, owed to the RuCl 3 precursor, is demonstrated to have a detrimental impact on methanation activity. After calcination and reduction the catalyst contains residual chlorine, shown by XPS. An aqueous ammonia wash removes Cl without leaching Ru. The washed catalysts exhibit improvements in CH 4 site-time yields. Low Ru loading catalysts encounter the greatest activity enhancements after washing (~4.5-fold). DFT calculations indicate that chlorine and CO 2 directly compete for adsorption on Ru step sites, with Cl impeding the adsorption of CO 2 at under-coordinated sites and at higher Cl coverages. H 2 -chemisorption/TPR show that Cl removal lowers the onset of low temperature H 2 dissociation on Ru. Finally, DRIFTS provide evidence that the removal of Cl facilitates low temperature dissociative binding of CO 2 , indicated by the formation of surface bound linear CO species.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ni5Ga3 Catalysts for CO2 Reduction to Methanol: Exploring the Role of Ga Surface Oxidation/reductions on Catalytic Activity

Ad-Ni5Ga3/SiO2 catalyst, which is highly active and stable for thermal CO2 hydrogenation to methanol, was investigated to understand its surface dynamics during reaction conditions. The catalyst was prepared, tested and characterized using a multitude of techniques, including ex-situ XRD, TEM, H2-TPR, CO chemisorption and in-situ ETEM and APXPS. The formation of Ga2O3 upon air exposure was observed and the consequences on catalytic activity were investigated. Results revealed that upon air exposure Ga migrates from the subsurface region to the surface of the nanoparticles forming a Ga-oxide shell surrounding a metallic core. The oxide shell can be reduced completely at high temperatures and the temperature of the reduction activation treatment plays a crucial role on the catalytic activity. This air exposure-reduction procedure results in a redistribution of the Ga species in the surface/subsurface region, promoted by a higher Ga affinity for oxygen. XRD analysis of the post-reaction samples provide evidence for the partial transformation of a Ni5Ga3 intermetallic phase into a Ni-rich Ni3Ga phase. APXPS data indicate that the Ni-rich phase forms in the subsurface region. A Ga-rich phase exists on the surface, where the Ni/Ga ratio reaches 2/3 upon activation in hydrogen. At low reduction temperatures an amorphous Ga2O3 shell remains, indicating a promotion effect on methanol synthesis activity.

Ni-Ga, intermetallic, methanol synthesis, in-situ ↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effect of non-redox promoters (AlO x , PO x , SiO x and ZrO x ) and surface sulfates on supported V 2 O 5 -WO 3 /TiO 2 catalysts in selective catalytic reduction of NO with NH 3

The SCR activity of MO x (M=Al, P, Si, Zr) promoted V 2 O 5 -WO 3 /TiO 2 was investigated before and after sulfation. In situ IR spectroscopy indicated that the VO x active sites preferentially anchor on promoter generated surface hydroxyl. In situ Raman spectroscopy confirmed that all oxides are completely dispersed on the TiO 2 surface. In situ NH 3 -IR spectroscopy showed that the oxides can increase the Lewis (AlO x and ZrO x ) and Brønsted (PO x , SiO x , VO x , WO x and SO x ) acid site concentrations. The SiO x and ZrO x promoters had little effect on NO conversion, while the AlO x and PO x promoters and surface sulfation generally inhibited it. The SiO x promoted catalyst was highly SCR active despite lacking Lewis acid sites, indicating that they are not vital for SCR. Finally, the N 2 O formation activity of the catalyst was inhibited by surface sulfation and the promoters, correlating with the promoter and SO x induced increase in the Brønsted acid sites’ strength.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tailoring olefin distribution via tuning rare earth metals in bifunctional Cu-RE/beta-zeolite catalysts for ethanol upgrading

Bioethanol to middle distillate technologies have offered a unique solution to produce renewable aviation fuel for decarbonizing the hard-to-electrify sectors. Here, we have developed the series of bimetallic Cu- and rare earth-containing (RE) Beta zeolite catalysts that yield high C 3+ alkene selectivity from ethanol upgrading (>80% selectivity at ~100% conversion, 623 K). The formation rates of butene isomers to C 5+ alkenes are linearly correlated with the strength of Lewis acidic RE identity, which follows the sequence of Yb 12 /Beta >Y 7 /Beta > Gd 12 /Beta > Ce 10 /Beta > La 12 /Beta. Rate measurements indicate that the RE selection plays the vital role in altering the rate of the key competitive reactions within the ethanol-to-alkenes reaction network, namely C 4 alcohol dehydration and C-C chain growth, which dictate alkene product distributions. Finally, these findings indicate a feasible and promising method for tailoring alkene product distributions from ethanol upgrading, which is of notable significance to the generation of renewable middle distillates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Co-optimizing water-alternating-carbon dioxide injection projects using a machine learning assisted computational framework

In this report, a robust machine-learning-based computational framework that couples multi-layer neural network (MLNN) proxies and a multi-objective particle swarm optimizer (MOPSO) to design water-alternating-carbon dioxide injection (CO 2 -WAG) projects is presented. The proposed optimization protocol considers various objectives, including oil recovery and CO 2 storage volume. Expert MLNN systems are trained and employed as surrogate models of the high-fidelity compositional simulator in the optimization workflow. When multiple objective functions are considered, two approaches are employed to treat the objectives: the weighted sum method and the Pareto-front-based scheme. A field-scale implementation focusing on tertiary recovery in the Morrow B formation at Farnsworth Unit (FWU) is presented. The developed Pareto-optimal solutions indicate the maximal available oil production can be 1.64 × 10 7 barrels and maximal carbon storage can achieve 2.35 × 10 7 tons. Trade-offs factor is defined to divide the constructed Pareto front into 4 sections with the trade-off factors’ value ranges from 0.35 to 49.9. This work also compares the optimum solution found by the aggregative objective function and the solution repository covered by the Pareto front that considers the physical and operational constraints and reduces uncertainties involved by the multi-objective optimization process. Our comparison indicates multiple solutions exist to satisfy the objective criteria of the WAG design, and these results cannot be found using the traditional weighted sum method. The Pareto front solution can provide more options for project designers, but decisions regarding necessary trade-offs must be made using the solution repository to balance the project economics and CO 2 storage amount.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Biodiesel production from engineered sugarcane lipids under uncertain feedstock compositions: Process design and techno-economic analysis

In this study, different process schemes were designed and evaluated for biodiesel production from engineered cane lipids with uncertain fatty acid compositions. Four different process schemes were compared under (i) thermal glycerolysis and (ii) enzymatic glycerolysis approaches. These schemes were based on the biodiesel yield and economic indicators such as the net present value (NPV) and the minimum selling price (MSP) of biodiesel. A scheme with polar lipid separation under thermal glycerolysis resulted in the maximum NPV ($\$96.5$ million) and minimum MSP ($\$1107$ /ton biodiesel), respectively. Through local sensitivity analysis, it was concluded that the cane lipid percentage is the most significant factor influencing process economics. A conjoint analysis of the lipid procurement price and cane lipid percent suggested that 15% cane lipids with a low lipid procurement price ($\$0.536$ /kg) results in a positive NPV. When the cane lipid price is higher (> $\$0.80$ /kg), a 20% lipid content should be considered to achieve a positive NPV. At 20% cane lipids, the worst-case and best-case scenarios were evaluated by analyzing the interplay of the three most important parameters, Here, the best-case scenario revealed that the minimum NPV under any process scheme could yield more than $\$100$ million (or MSP: $\$0.80$ /L), and the worst-case analysis showed that losses incurred by the plant could be as high as 80 million (MSP: $\$1.36$ /L). A Monte Carlo simulation indicated that there is a 70% chance of the plant being profitable (NPV > 0).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Carbon emission responsive building control: A case study with an all-electric residential community in a cold climate

In the United States, buildings account for 35% of total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, making them important contributors to decarbonization. Carbon intensities in the power grid are time-varying and can fluctuate significantly within hours, so shifting building loads in response to the carbon intensities can reduce a building’s operational carbon emissions. This paper presents a rule-based carbon responsive control framework that controls the setpoints of thermostatically controlled loads responding to the grid’s carbon emission signals in real time. Based on this framework, four controllers are proposed with different combinations of carbon accounting methods and control rules. To evaluate their performance, we performed simulation studies using models of a 27-home, all-electric, net zero energy residential community located in Basalt, Colorado, United States. The carbon intensity data of four future years from the Cambium data set are adopted to account for the evolving resource mix in the power grid. Various performance metrics, including energy consumption, carbon emission, energy cost, and thermal discomfort, were used to evaluate the performance of the controllers. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to determine how the control thresholds and intervals affect the controllers’ performance. Simulation results indicate that the carbon responsive controllers can reduce the homes’ annual carbon emissions by 6.0% to 20.5%. However, the energy consumption increased by 0.9% to 6.7%, except in one scenario where it decreased by 2.2%. Compared to the baseline, the change in energy cost was between –2.9% and 3.4%, and thermal discomfort was also maintained within an acceptable range. The little impact on energy cost and thermal discomfort indicates there are no potential roadblocks for customer acceptance when rolling out the controllers in utility programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

A comparison of building system parameters between affordable and market-rate housing in New York City

Low-income households in the United States experience higher than average energy burdens (defined as the proportion of household income spent on energy utilities), and many of these households struggle to simultaneously pay for rent, energy, and basic household necessities. The analysis presented here in this study examines whether the underlying characteristics of buildings and their energy systems could contribute to this disparity for affordable housing residents in New York City. It combines an energy audit dataset of 7,328 multifamily buildings with a database of properties receiving local, state, or federal housing subsidies. The results of this analysis indicate that the building-level installed equipment in large (greater than 50,000 square feet) affordable housing buildings in New York City is more efficient than that in market-rate buildings, but this trend largely disappears when considering overall building characteristics, such as location, size, or age. Significant differences in the types of systems installed in affordable and market-rate housing are also observed, as well as the types of energy efficiency recommendations made by energy auditors. However, these latter data were not normalized by building system characteristics, as that analysis is much more difficult to interpret for categorical data such as heating system type. These findings indicate that retrofit policies and building performance standards focused on affordable housing will likely need to account for underlying differences in building characteristics between affordable and market-rate housing to achieve intended impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Opportunities for wave energy in bulk power system operations

Wave energy resources have high, yet largely untapped potential as candidate generation technology. In this paper, we perform a data-driven analysis to characterize the impact of wave energy integration on bulk-scale power systems and market operations. Through data-driven sensitivity studies centered on an optimization-based production cost modeling formulation, our work characterizes the inflection point beyond which wave integration starts impacting power system operations, considering present day transmission infrastructure. Furthermore, our analysis also considers the joint effects of wave energy integration and system-wide transmission expansion. Finally, potential resilience scenarios such as wildfire-driven transmission contingencies and heat wave events are investigated, whereby the contributions of grid-integrated wave energy in alleviating the effects of the resilience events are analyzed. As our demonstration test bed, we consider a reduced-order network topology for the U.S. Western Interconnection with wave energy generation integrated at carefully selected sites across the coastal areas of Washington, Oregon, and northern California. Our results indicate that over a representative year of operations, wave energy integration systematically reduces locational marginal prices (LMPs) of energy and price volatility, especially during periods of high wave resource availability (winter months for the U.S. west coast). Average, maximum, and minimum of hourly LMPs over a typical year of operation was reduced by 2.95, 51.28, and 1.13 $\$$/MWh respectively (over a baseline scenario with no wave energy integration), when the selected network model had a total of 5000 MW wave power installed capacity during the representative year of study. The effects of wave energy integration can remain localized with existing transmission infrastructure (identified to be most pronounced in the Pacific Northwest region in the example we studied). However, with concurrent transmission expansion, the impacts of wave energy integration are likely to have a higher geographical spread. Our results also indicate that wave energy may be able to assist power system operations during resilience events such as major transmission contingencies and heat wave events, although such benefits might be dependent on factors such as proximity of affected area to wave resources, availability of adequate resource potential and adequate transmission capacity.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

A method for assessing economic, environmental, and reliability tradeoffs of interregional transmission connecting ERCOT (the Texas grid) to the eastern and western grids

Reliable development of the power grid is an evolving concern for humanity due to extreme weather that frequently threatens power sector infrastructure. The state of Texas is a uniquely structured testbed for grid planners to study when looking for solutions to development, innovation, and overcoming such challenges. Because of its size and islanded structure, Texas is small enough to model, but big enough to matter. Texas is a global leader in energy production, energy consumption, and maintains an unusually diverse fuel mix. In addition, the state has experienced winter freezes, heat waves, wind storms, droughts and floods that have threatened power sector infrastructure or caused recent blackouts and calls for demand side conservation. One of the most devastating of these events was the North American winter storm, dubbed “Winter Storm Uri” by the Weather Channel, that froze the region in February 2021 and led to an extended power outage event that put the majority of Texan residents in darkness for days. While preparing to avoid such outage events in the future, various tools have been proposed to improve grid reliability, including energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. An additional option would be to develop interregional transmission that connects the Texas grid to other national grids. To assess the merits of this idea, we developed a novel, universally-applicable and internationally-relevant framework to study how the Texas grid would evolve alongside access to various interregional ties. This method allows us to stress the synthetic grid structure and analyze how it would respond to the shock of a simulated winter storm event. Our method leverages open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX to synthesize unique zonal grid data, construct a consolidated network of model regions, and simulate different developmental pathways of capacity expansion and operational dispatch. We demonstrate our method with an analysis connecting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid that serves most of Texas, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), the grid that serves the western half of the contiguous U.S., and the Eastern Interconnect, the grid that serves the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. Our results indicate that the cost-optimal capacity of interregional transmission connecting the ERCOT grid to other grids lies between 9–13 GW assuming baseline conditions. Building this amount of connecting capacity in one or multiple directions lowers the costs and emissions of development and operation by up to $16 billion and 257 million metric tonnes (MMT) respectively. Additionally, our results show that the interregional connections between ERCOT and other national grids reduce the amount of total load shed required through mild winter storm events. However, our results also show that there is a threshold of very extreme winter storm conditions, spanning multiple service areas, above which the connections exacerbate resource adequacy problems. Therefore, the results indicate that the connections need to be carefully planned alongside the rest of the grid infrastructure to avoid over-reliance on specific resources or technology options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗