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NASA NTRS2000

The Strategy for the Second Phase of Aerobraking Mars Global Surveyor

On February 19, 1999, the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft was able to propulsively establish its mapping orbit. This event followed the completion of the second phase of aerobraking for the MGS spacecraft on February 4, 1999. For the first time, a spacecraft at Mars had successfully employed aerobraking methods in order to reach its desired pre-launch mapping orbit. This was accomplished despite a damaged spacecraft solar array. The MGS spacecraft was launched on November 7, 1996, and after a ten month interplanetary transit was inserted into a highly elliptical capture orbit at Mars on September 12, 1997. Unlike other interplanetary missions, the MGS spacecraft was launched with a planned mission delta-V ((Delta)V) deficit of nearly 1250 m/s. To overcome this AV deficit, aerobraking techniques were employed. However, damage discovered to one of the spacecraft's two solar arrays after launch forced major revisions to the original aerobraking planning of the MGS mission. In order to avoid a complete structural failure of the array, peak dynamic pressure levels for the spacecraft were established at a major spacecraft health review in November 1997. These peak dynamic pressure levels were roughly one-third of the original mission design values. Incorporating the new dynamic pressure limitations into mission replanning efforts resulted in an 'extended' orbit insertion phase for the mission. This 'extended' orbit insertion phase was characterized by two distinct periods of aerobraking separated by an aerobraking hiatus that would last for several months in an intermediate orbit called the "Science Phasing Orbit" (SPO). This paper describes and focuses on the strategy for the second phase of aerobraking for the MGS mission called "Aerobraking Phase 2." This description will include the baseline aerobraking flight profile, the trajectory control methodology, as well as the key trajectory metrics that were monitored in order to successfully "guide' the spacecraft to its desired mapping orbit. Additionally, the actual aerobraking progress is contrasted to the planned aerobraking flight profile. (A separate paper will describe the navigation aspects of MGS aerobraking in detail.) Key to the success of the MGS mission is the delivery of the spacecraft to its final mapping orbit and the synergy the instrument complement provides to its scientific investigators when science data is returned from that orbit. The MGS mapping orbit is characterized as a low altitude, near-circular, near-polar orbit that is Sun-synchronous with the descending equatorial crossing at 2:00 AM local mean solar time (LMST).

Johnston, M. D.↗
NASA NTRS1998

High-Performance Monitoring Architecture for Large-Scale Distributed Systems Using Event Filtering

Monitoring is an essential process to observe and improve the reliability and the performance of large-scale distributed (LSD) systems. In an LSD environment, a large number of events is generated by the system components during its execution or interaction with external objects (e.g. users or processes). Monitoring such events is necessary for observing the run-time behavior of LSD systems and providing status information required for debugging, tuning and managing such applications. However, correlated events are generated concurrently and could be distributed in various locations in the applications environment which complicates the management decisions process and thereby makes monitoring LSD systems an intricate task. We propose a scalable high-performance monitoring architecture for LSD systems to detect and classify interesting local and global events and disseminate the monitoring information to the corresponding end- points management applications such as debugging and reactive control tools to improve the application performance and reliability. A large volume of events may be generated due to the extensive demands of the monitoring applications and the high interaction of LSD systems. The monitoring architecture employs a high-performance event filtering mechanism to efficiently process the large volume of event traffic generated by LSD systems and minimize the intrusiveness of the monitoring process by reducing the event traffic flow in the system and distributing the monitoring computation. Our architecture also supports dynamic and flexible reconfiguration of the monitoring mechanism via its Instrumentation and subscription components. As a case study, we show how our monitoring architecture can be utilized to improve the reliability and the performance of the Interactive Remote Instruction (IRI) system which is a large-scale distributed system for collaborative distance learning. The filtering mechanism represents an Intrinsic component integrated with the monitoring architecture to reduce the volume of event traffic flow in the system, and thereby reduce the intrusiveness of the monitoring process. We are developing an event filtering architecture to efficiently process the large volume of event traffic generated by LSD systems (such as distributed interactive applications). This filtering architecture is used to monitor collaborative distance learning application for obtaining debugging and feedback information. Our architecture supports the dynamic (re)configuration and optimization of event filters in large-scale distributed systems. Our work represents a major contribution by (1) survey and evaluating existing event filtering mechanisms In supporting monitoring LSD systems and (2) devising an integrated scalable high- performance architecture of event filtering that spans several kev application domains, presenting techniques to improve the functionality, performance and scalability. This paper describes the primary characteristics and challenges of developing high-performance event filtering for monitoring LSD systems. We survey existing event filtering mechanisms and explain key characteristics for each technique. In addition, we discuss limitations with existing event filtering mechanisms and outline how our architecture will improve key aspects of event filtering.

Maly, K.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Ocean Carbon From Space: Current Status and Priorities for the Next Decade

The ocean plays a central role in modulating the Earth’s carbon cycle. Monitoring how the ocean carbon cycle is changing is fundamental to managing climate change. Satellite remote sensing is currently our best tool for viewing the ocean surface globally and systematically, at high spatial and temporal resolutions, and the past few decades have seen an exponential growth in studies utilising satellite data for ocean carbon research. Satellite-based observations must be combined with in-situ observations and models, to obtain a comprehensive view of ocean carbon pools and fluxes. To help prioritise future research in this area, a workshop was organised that assembled leading experts working on the topic, from around the world, including remote-sensing scientists, field scientists and modellers, with the goal to articulate a collective view of the current status of ocean carbon research, identify gaps in knowledge, and formulate a scientific roadmap for the next decade, with an emphasis on evaluating where satellite remote sensing may contribute. A total of 449 scientists and stakeholders participated (with balanced gender representation), from North and South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. Sessions targeted both inorganic and organic pools of carbon in the ocean, in both dissolved and particulate form, as well as major fluxes of carbon between reservoirs (e.g., primary production) and at interfaces (e.g., air-sea and land–ocean). Extreme events, blue carbon and carbon budgeting were also key topics discussed. Emerging priorities identified include: expanding the networks and quality of in-situ observations; improved satellite retrievals; improved uncertainty quantification; improved understanding of vertical distributions; integration with models; improved techniques to bridge spatial and temporal scales of the different data sources; and improved fundamental understanding of the ocean carbon cycle, and of the interactions among pools of carbon and light. We also report on priorities for the specific pools and fluxes studied, and highlight issues and concerns that arose during discussions, such as the need to consider the environmental impact of satellites or space activities; the role satellites can play in monitoring ocean carbon dioxide removal approaches; economic valuation of the satellite based information; to consider how satellites can contribute to monitoring cycles of other important climatically-relevant compounds and elements; to promote diversity and inclusivity in ocean carbon research; to bring together communities working on different aspects of planetary carbon; maximising use of international bodies; to follow an open science approach; to explore new and innovative ways to remotely monitor ocean carbon; and to harness quantum computing. Overall, this paper provides a comprehensive scientific roadmap for the next decade on how satellite remote sensing could help monitor the ocean carbon cycle, and its links to the other domains, such as terrestrial and atmosphere.

oceanography↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions

Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from this behavior could impact estimates of required net-zero timings and negative emissions requirements to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets. However, existing ESM diagnostic experiments do not allow for direct estimation of these deviations as a function of defined emissions pathways. Here, we perform a set of climate model diagnostic experiments for the assessment of transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC), and climate reversibility metrics in an emissions-driven framework. The emissions-driven experiments provide consistent independent variables simplifying simulation, analysis and interpretation, with emissions rates more comparable to recent levels than existing protocols using model-specific compatible emissions from the CMIP DECK 1pctCO2 experiment, where emissions rates tend to increase during the experiment, such that at the time of CO2 doubling in year 70, emissions are much greater than present-day values. A base experiment, “esm-flat10”, has constant emissions of CO2 of 10 GtC per year (near-present-day values), and initial results show that the TCRE estimated in this experiment is about 0.1 K less than that obtained using 1pctCO2. A subset of ESMs exhibit land carbon sinks that saturate during this experiment. A branch experiment, esm-flat10-zec, illustrates that both positive and negative ZEC effects are less pronounced under esm-flat10 than under 1pctCO2 – the magnitude of ZEC50 in ESMs is, on average, reduced by 30 % compared with 1pctCO2 branch experiments. A final experiment, esm-flat10-cdr, assesses climate reversibility under negative emissions, where we find that peak warming may occur before or after net zero and that the asymmetry in temperature at a given level of cumulative emissions between the positive and negative emissions phases is well described by ZEC in most models. Further, we find that existing probabilistic simple climate model (SCM) ensembles tend to overestimate temperature reversibility compared with ESMs, highlighting the need for additional constraints. We propose a set of climate diagnostic indicators to quantify various aspects of climate reversibility. These experiments were suggested as potential candidates in CMIP7 and have since been adopted as “fast track” simulations.

Sanderson, Benjamin M↗
DOE OSTI2020

5G Enabled Energy Innovation: Advanced Wireless Networks for Science (Workshop Report)

Rapidly expanding, new telecommunications infrastructure based on 5G technologies will disrupt and transform how we design, build, operate, and optimize scientific infrastructure and the experiments and services enabled by that infrastructure, from continental-scale sensor networks to centralized scientific user facilities, from intelligent Internet of Things devices to supercomputers. Concurrently, 5G will introduce, or exacerbate, challenges related to protecting infrastructure and associated scientific data as well as to fully leveraging opportunities related to expanded infrastructure scale and complexity. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science operates scientific infrastructure, supporting some of the nation’s most advanced intellectual discoveries, spanning the country and including 30 world-class user facilities from supercomputers to accelerators. Along with field experiments and remote observatories, every aspect of DOE’s scientific enterprise will be affected by 5G, which amounts to a complete renovation of the underpinnings of the nation’s information infrastructure. In this report we explore the scientific opportunities and new research challenges associated with 5G, ranging from scalability to heterogeneity to cybersecurity. The rapid commercial deployment of 5G opens the opportunity to rethink and reinvent DOE’s scientific infrastructure and experimentation, from intelligent sensor networks at unprecedented scales to a digital continuum of cyberinfrastructure spanning low-power sensors, high-performance computing embedded within and at the edge of the network, and DOE’s large-scale user instrument and computing facilities. New programming paradigms, workflow and data frameworks, and AI-based system design, operation, and autonomous adaptation and optimization will be necessary in order to exploit these new opportunities. Field deployments and centralized scientific instruments can also be revolutionized, moving (without traditional performance penalties) from wired to wireless connectivity for data and control systems, improving flexibility, and opening new sensing modalities, including the use of the 5G electromagnetic spectrum itself as an environmental probe. For DOE science, in contrast to commercial 5G applications and settings, devices will be deployed in extreme environments such as cryogenically cooled instrument control systems and in remote settings with harsh conditions, requiring the design of new materials for RF communication and edge processing to operate in these regimes. Concurrently, 5G infrastructure comprises both hardware and sophisticated software systems - currently closed and proprietary. The cybersecurity challenges to 5G-empowered reinvention mirror the complexity and variety of new 5G features, from virtualization to private network slices to ubiquitous access. Research is also needed in order to accelerate the development of secure and open 5G software infrastructure, reducing reliance on hardware and software produced outside the United States and providing the transparency and rigorous evaluation and testing afforded through open software. Twelve broad research thrusts are laid out in four chapters, with a companion fifth chapter (and three additional research thrusts) underscoring the needs and opportunities for an aggressive testbed program co-designed by networking experts and scientists involved in the 15 research thrusts. The urgency of undertaking this research is fueled by a global, accelerating deployment of new telecommunications infrastructure that is designed for entertainment and commercial applications - barely scratching the surface of what 5G can do to extend U.S. leadership in scientific discovery.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2011

Pulsed Lidar for Measurement of C02 Concentrations for the ASCENDS Mission - Update

We have been developing a laser-based sounding technique for the remote measurement of the tropospheric CO2 concentrations from orbit for NASA is ASCENDS mission. The mission's goals are to provide measurements of tropospheric CO2 abundance with global-coverage, a few hundred km spatial and monthly temporal resolution. These are needed to better understand CO2 fluxes and the processes that regulate CO2 storage by the land and oceans. For the lIP, we are developing and demonstrating the lidar techniques and key lidar technology that will permit measurements of the CO2 column abundance in the lower troposphere from aircraft. Our final goal is to demonstrate the key capabilities needed for a space lidar and mission approach for the ASCENDS mission. We use a pulsed lidar technique, which is much less sensitive to errors from cloud and atmospheric scattering and to noise from solar background. It allows continuous measurements of CO2 mixing ratio in the lower troposphere during day and night. Our approach uses the 1570nm CO2 band and a two-wavelength laser absorption spectrometer, which continuously measures at nadir from a circular polar orbit. It directs the narrow co-aligned laser beams from the instrument's lasers toward nadir, and measures the energy of the laser echoes reflected from land and water surfaces. It uses a pair of tunable laser transmitters, which allowing measurement of the extinction from a single selected CO2 absorption line in the 1570 nm band and from a line pair in the Oxygen A-band near 765 nm. These regions have temperature insensitive absorption lines are free from interference from other gases. The lasers pulse at 10KHz, use tunable diode seed lasers followed by laser amplifiers, and have MHz spectral widths. During the measurement the lasers are stepped across the selected lines at a kHz rate. The receiver uses a 1-m class telescope and photon sensitive detectors and measures the background light and energies of the laser echoes from the surface. The extinction and column densities for the CO2 and O2 gases are estimated from the ratio of the on and off line echo pulse energies via the integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) technique. Our technique exploits the atmospheric pressure broadening of the lines to weight the measurement sensitivity to the atmospheric column below 5 km. Pulsed laser signals, time gated receiver are used to isolate the surface laser echo signals and to exclude photons scattered from clouds and aerosols. We have successfully demonstrated many key aspects of the approach and lidar technology in the laboratory. We have demonstrated CO2 column measurements in airborne flights during the summers of 2009 and 2010. These included measurements from 3-l3 km altitudes made over a variety of surfaces and through thin and broken clouds. We demonstrated initial airborne measurements of O2 column density to 10 km altitudes during the summer 2010 flights. More details approach, key technologies, and demonstration measurements will be given in the presentation.

Abshire, James↗
DOE OSTI2020

Low Temperature Activation of Methane on Metal-Oxides and Complex Interfaces: Insights from Surface Science

The abundance of inexpensive, natural gas has transformed the energy landscape, whereby revealing new possibilities for sustainable chemical technologies or impacting those that have relied on traditional fossil fuels. The primary component, methane, is underutilized and wastefully exhausted, leading to anthropogenic global warming. Historically, the manipulation of methane remained “ clavis aurea ,” an insurmountable yet rewarding challenge and thus the focus of intense research. This is primarily due to an inability to dissociate C–H bonds in methane selectively, which requires a high energy penalty and is an essential prerequisite for the direct conversion of methane into a large set of value-added products. The discovery of such processes would promise an energy gainful use of natural gas benefiting several essential chemical processes associated with C1 chemistry. This first C–H bond dissociation step of the methane molecule appears in numerous catalytic mechanisms as the rate-determining step or most essential barrier sequence for all subsequent steps that follow in the production of C–C, C–O, or C x –H y –O z bonds found in value added products. A main goal is to catalytically reduce the energy barrier for the first C–H bond dissociation to be able to achieve the activation of methane at low or moderate temperatures. As such there is great value in understanding the fundamental nature of the active sites responsible for bond breaking or formation and thus be able to facilitate better control of this chemistry, leading to the development of new technologies for fuel production and chemical conversion. Surface science studies offer enhanced perspectives for a careful manipulation of bonds over the last layer atoms of catalyst surfaces, an essential factor for the design of atomically precise catalysts and unravelling of the reaction mechanism. With the advent of new surface imaging, spectroscopy, and in situ tools, it has been possible to decipher the surface chemistry of complex materials systems and further our understanding of atomic active sites on the surfaces of metals, oxides, and carbides or metal–oxide and metal–carbide interfaces. The once considered near impossible step of C–H bond activation is now observed at low temperatures with high propensity over a collection of oxide, metal–oxide, and metal–carbide systems in a conventional or inverse configuration (oxide or carbide on metal). The enabling of C–H activation at low temperature has opened interesting possibilities for the specific production of chemicals such as methanol directly from methane, a step toward facile synthesis of liquid fuels. We highlight the most recent of these results and present the key aspects of active site configurations engineered from surface science studies which enable such a simple reactive event through careful manipulation of the last surface layer of atoms found in the catalyst structure. New concepts which help in the activation and conversion of methane are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations

Abstract. Climate model output emulation has long been attempted to support impact research, mainly to fill in gaps in the scenario space. Given the computational cost of running coupled earth system models (ESMs), which are usually the domain of supercomputers and require on the order of days to weeks to complete a century-long simulation, only a handful of different scenarios are usually chosen to externally force ESM simulations. An effective emulator, able to run on standard computers in times of the order of minutes rather than days could therefore be used to derive climate information under scenarios that were not run by ESMs. Lately, the necessity of accounting for internal variability has also made the availability of initial-condition ensembles, under a specific scenario, important, further increasing the computational demand. At least so far, emulators have been limited to simplified ESM-like output, either seasonal, annual, or decadal averages of basic quantities, like temperature and precipitation, often emulated independently of one another. With this work, we propose a more comprehensive solution to ESM output emulation. Our emulator, STITCHES, uses existing archives of earth system models' (ESMs) scenario experiments to construct ESM-like output under new scenarios or enrich existing initial-condition ensembles, which is what other emulators also aim to do. Importantly, however, STITCHES' output has the same characteristics of the ESM output it sets out to emulate: multivariate, spatially resolved, and high frequency, representing both the forced component and the internal variability around it. STITCHES extends the idea of time sampling – according to which climate outcomes are stratified by the global warming level at which they manifest themselves, irrespective of the scenario and time at which they occur – to the construction of a continuous history of ESM-like output over the whole 21st century, consistent with a 21st-century trajectory of global surface air temperature (GSAT) derived from the scenario that has been chosen as the target of the emulation. STITCHES does so by first splitting the target GSAT trajectory into decade-long windows, then matching each window in turn to a decade-long window within an existing model simulation from the available scenario runs according to its proximity to the target in absolute size of the temperature anomaly and its rate of change. A look-up table is therefore created of a sequence of existing experiment–time-window combinations that, when stitched together, create a GSAT trajectory “similar” to the target. Importantly, we can then stitch together much more than GSAT from these windows, i.e., any output that the ESM has saved for these existing experiment–time-window combinations, at any frequency and spatial scale available in its archive. We show that the stitching does not introduce artifacts in the great majority of cases (we look at temperature and precipitation at monthly frequency and on the native grid of the ESM and at an index of ENSO activity, the Southern Oscillation Index). This is true even if the criteria for the identification of the decades to be stitched together are chosen to work for a smoothed time series of annual GSAT, a result we expect given the larger amount of noise affecting most other variables at finer spatial scales and higher frequencies, which therefore are more “forgiving” of the stitching. We successfully test the method's performance over many ESMs and scenarios. Only a few exceptions surface, but these less-than-optimal outcomes are always associated with a scarcity of the archived simulations from which we can gather the decade-long windows that form the building blocks of the emulated time series. In the great majority of cases, STITCHES' performance is satisfactory according to metrics that reward consistency in trends, interannual and inter-ensemble variance, and autocorrelation structure of the time series stitched together. The method therefore can be used to create ESM-like output according to new scenarios, on the basis of a trajectory of GSAT produced according to that scenario, which could be easily obtained by a simple climate model. It can also be used to increase the size of existing initial-condition ensembles. There are aspects of our emulator that will immediately disqualify it for specific applications, like when climate information is needed whose characteristics result from accumulated quantities over windows of times longer than those used as pieces by STITCHES, droughts longer than a decade for example. But for many applications, we argue that a stitched product can satisfy the climate information needs of impact researchers. STITCHES cannot emulate ESM output from scenarios that result in GSAT trajectories outside of the envelope available in the archive, nor can it emulate trajectories with shapes different from existing ones (overshoots with negative derivative, for example). Therefore, the size and characteristics of the available archives of ESM output are the principal limitations for STITCHES' deployment. Thus, we argue for the possibility of designing scenario experiments within, for example, the next phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project according to new principles, relieved of the need to produce a number of similar trajectories that vary only in radiative forcing strength but more strategically covering the space of temperature anomalies and rates of change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Downscaling Analysis of the Urban Influence on Rainfall: TRMM Satellite Component AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography

A recent publication by Shepherd et al. (2002) demonstrated the feasibility of using TRMM precipitation radar (PR) estimates to identify precipitation anomalies caused by urbanization. The approach is particularly useful for investigating this global process because TRMM data span large portions of the globe and comprise an extended temporal dataset. Recent literature suggests that urbanized regions of Houston, Texas may be influencing lightning and precipitation formation over and downwind of the city. Possible mechanisms include: (1) enhanced convergence through interactions between the sea breeze, Galveston bay breeze, and urban heat island circulations, (2) enhanced convergence due to increased surface roughness over the city and/or destabilization of the boundary layer by the UHI, or (3) enhanced cloud condensation nuclei due to urban and industrial aerosol sources. In this study, a downscaling analysis of spatial and temporal trends in rainfall around the Houston Area is being conducted. The downscaling analysis concept involves identifying and quantifying urban rainfall anomalies at progressively smaller spatial and temporal scales using the TRMM satellite, ground-based radar, and a dense network of rain gauges. The goal is to test the hypothesis that the Houston urban district and regions in the climatological downwind region of the city exhibit enhanced rainfall amounts relative to the climatological upwind regions. TRMM was launched in 1997 and currently operates in a low-inclination (35 deg), non-sun-synchronous orbit at an altitude of 402 km (350 km prior to August 2001). The satellite analysis follows the methodologies described in Shepherd et al. (2002). Nearly five years of TRMM PR-derived mean monthly rainfall estimates are utilized to produce annual and warm season isohyetal analyses around Houston. Early results indicate that rainfall rates (mm/h) for the entire period are largest within 100 km northeast and east of Houston (e.g. the "hypothesized downwind region"). The mean rainfall rate over the Houston urban center is 30.5% larger than the upwind control region. The mean rainfall rate in the downwind region is 34.4% larger than the upwind region. An analysis of a parameter called the urban rainfall ratio (URR) illustrates that 65% (88%) of the satellite-derived rainfall rates in the downwind (upwind control) region are greater (less) than the mean background rainfall rate of the entire study region. When the data is stratified by summer months from 1998 to 2001 (June-August), even greater influence over and downwind of the urban area is observed in the statistics. This result is consistent with published reports of urban-generated rainfall being more prevalent in the warm season. The research demonstrates that the evolving TRMM satellite climatology is a credible way to detect mesoscale precipitation signatures that may be linked to urbanization. Early results also corroborate recent findings on Houston-induced convection/drainfall anomalies. Burian and Shepherd will report on other aspects of the downscaling analysis in future forums, but early rain gauge results are consistent with the satellite-based observations.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Earth Systems Digital Twins (ESDT)

"Similarly to artificial intelligence, which is now revolutionizing many aspects of our daily lives, Earth system digital twin technologies have the potential to revolutionize the way Earth Science research will be conducted in the future, and how results and knowledge from this research will provide information to support decision making and yield impactful societal benefits. An Earth System Digital Twin or ESDT is a dynamic and interactive information system that first provides a digital replica of the past and current states of the Earth or Earth system as accurately and timely as possible; second, allows for computing forecasts of future states under nominal assumptions and based on the current replica; and third, offers the capability to investigate many hypothetical scenarios under varying impact assumptions. In other words, an ESDT provides the integrated What-Now, What-Next, and What-If pictures of the Earth or Earth system, by continuously ingesting newly observed data and by leveraging multiple interconnected models, machine learning as well advanced computing and visualization capabilities. Digital twins have been developed in engineering since 2002, but the interest in digital twins for the Earth domain is more recent and stems from the convergence of several developments: - The huge amount of diverse data that has now been collected continuously for more than 50 years, and that is becoming more and more difficult to access, understand, and utilize. - At the same time, because of climate change and its impacts the information produced by all of this data is becoming of interest to many new non-traditional users for analyzing and predicting various phenomena. - Because of advances in computational and visualization capabilities and the parallel unprecedented development of machine learning (ML), extracting relevant information from these large amounts of data and running complex models faster has become possible. As a result, it is becoming necessary and possible to build intuitive and interactive frameworks that will enable users with various skill levels and/or organizational hierarchy levels to easily access large amounts of targeted information along with the relevant tools and models (Earth system and human activity models), to support them in analyzing and visualizing this information, to help them understand interactions among models, to visualize the potential outcomes of various impacts, and to support decision or policy making. The full power of digital twins is that, through an integrated representation and standardized tools and software technologies, the same digital replica can address the needs of multiple users at various resolutions (spatial and temporal) and for various applications (science, economic, policy, etc.) – “from farmer to scientist”. With all these interests at stake, the challenges of building optimal digital twins are many and complex. The first challenge is to determine if a Digital Twin should be global or local, and multi-domain or thematic. For example, some domains such as Climate or Weather will require a global Digital Twin or Digital Twin capabilities while science areas such as Biodiversity might be more local. We can also envision that multiple thematic ESDTs, e.g., Air Quality, Wildfires, Hydrology could be federated or provide input to other ESDTs, either on a regional level or to a more global ESDT. Overall, we can imagine a future “web” of Digital Twins co-existing in a hierarchy or in a network, and capable of being connected or federated depending on the needs. This last point brings up the very important challenge of interoperability, including standards and protocols that will need to be built into these systems from the beginning. Each individual digital twin would have full flexibility in internal construction but would need standards-based interfaces (input and output) or hooks to make it compatible with others. Another challenge when building digital twins will be to decide how to organize each digital replica. Based on the applications targeted by the DT under implementation, various amounts and types of raw data, Analysis Ready Data (ARD) and information will need to be incorporated. Depending on the required latencies and needs of the users, various solutions can be considered, including Data Cubes, Data Lakes, pointers, or computing information on demand. We envision that each ESDT will choose a solution adapted to its specific objectives. Another important challenge is the type(s) of visualization that will be used, as well as the level of interactivity and refresh rate that will be required. Again, this will depend on the objectives of the ESDT, but also on the various users’ needs. In most cases, several types of visualizations and human interfaces will need to be offered depending on the projected users of that system. In parallel to the challenges highlighted above, there are also many tools and technologies that will need to be developed or improved for all types of digital twins. Among those are improved machine learning technologies, for example providing explainability, but also ML techniques for causality and providing a better integration of physics models. Additionally, reliable uncertainty quantification methods will be needed for all ESDT components, from validating data fusion and assimilation to assessing the accuracy of ML models and weighing the values of decisions supported by those systems. This presentation introduces the ESDT concept, presents several ESDT use cases, and a proposed ESDT architecture framework, as well as various technologies being developed by the Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program."

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-resolution Arctic Shrub Cover Dataset Derived from UAS and Airborne SfM and LiDAR (2013-2025)

We synthesized 177 unoccupied aerial system flights and 77 airborne flights across the Arctic and created a multi-resolution benchmark data of low-to-tall shrub fractional cover leveraging Structure-from-Motion and Light Detection and Ranging. The resulting dataset covered a total of 1899 km2 across Alaska, Western Canada, Sweden, and Siberian Arctic, including key sites from the Oro Arctic to the High Arctic. The dataset is organized into 6 primary data collection directories (“Abisko,” “AWI,” “ERE,” “Fairbanks,” “NGEE,” “Toolik”), each containing site and flight subdirectories. Flight directories include shrub cover rasters (*.tifs) at 1 m, 5 m, and 30 m resolution, the canopy height model at 1 m resolution (*.tifs), and a bounding box *.kml file. For the AWI, Abisko, NGEE, and Fairbanks collections, we also include the GCC raster at 1 m resolution (*.tif). Files are organized by Collection > Site > Flight Name > Data Files. Flight rasters are in the local UTM zone and the .kml files are in the geographic coordinate system EPSG 4326. We also include a .csv file that details the source datasets for every flight. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

canopy height model↗
NASA NTRS2007

Laser Sounder for Global Measurement of CO2 Concentrations in the Troposphere from Space

Measurements of tropospheric CO2 abundance with global-coverage, a few hundred km spatial and monthly temporal resolution are needed to quantify processes that regulate CO2 storage by the land and oceans. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) is the first space mission focused on atmospheric CO2 for measuring total column CO, and O2 by detecting the spectral absorption in reflected sunlight. The OCO mission is an essential step, and will yield important new information about atmospheric CO2 distributions. However there are unavoidable limitations imposed by its measurement approach. These include best accuracy only during daytime at moderate to high sun angles, interference by cloud and aerosol scattering, and limited signal from CO2 variability in the lower tropospheric CO2 column. We have been developing a new laser-based technique for the remote measurement of the tropospheric CO2 concentrations from orbit. Our initial goal is to demonstrate a lidar technique and instrument technology that will permit measurements of the CO2 column abundance in the lower troposphere from aircraft. Our final goal is to develop a space instrument and mission approach for active measurements of the CO2 mixing ratio at the 1-2 ppmv level. Our technique is much less sensitive to cloud and atmospheric scattering conditions and would allow continuous measurements of CO2 mixing ratio in the lower troposphere from orbit over land and ocean surfaces during day and night. Our approach is to use the 1570nm CO2 band and a 3-channel laser absorption spectrometer (i.e. lidar used an altimeter mode), which continuously measures at nadir from a near polar circular orbit. The approach directs the narrow co-aligned laser beams from the instrument's lasers toward nadir, and measures the energy of the laser echoes reflected from land and water surfaces. It uses several tunable fiber laser transmitters which allowing measurement of the extinction from a single selected CO2 absorption line in the 1570 nm band. This band is free from interference from other gases and has temperature insensitive absorption lines. During the measurement the lasers are tuned on- and off- a selected CO2 line near 1572 nm and a selected O2 line near 768 nm in the Oxygen A band at kHz rates. The lasers use tunable diode seed lasers followed by fiber amplifiers, and have spectral widths much narrower than the gas absorption lines. The receiver uses a 1-m diameter telescope and photon counting detectors and measures the background light and energies of the laser echoes from the surface. The extinction and column densities for the CO2 and O2 gases are estimated from the ratio of the on and offline surface echo via the differential optical absorption technique. Our technique rapidly alternates between several on-line wavelengths set to the sides of the selected gas absorption lines. It exploits the atmospheric pressure broadening of the lines to weight the measurement sensitivity to the atmospheric column below 5 km. This maximizes sensitivity to CO2 in the boundary layer, where variations caused by surface sources and sinks are largest. Simultaneous measurements of O2 column will use an identical approach with an O2 line. Thee laser frequencies are tunable and have narrow (MHz) line widths. In combination with sensitive photon counting detectors these enables much higher spectral resolution and precision than is possible with passive spectrometer. 1aser backscatter profiles are also measured, which permits identifying measurements made to cloud tops and through aerosol layers. The measurement approach using lasers in common-nadir-zenith path allows retrieving CO2 column mixing ratios in the lower troposphere irrespective of sun angle. Pulsed laser signals, time gated receiver and a narrow receiver field-of-view are used to isolate the surface laser echo signals and to exclude photons scattered from clouds and aerosols. Nonetheless, the optical absorption change due to a change of a few ppO2 is small, <1 % which makes achieving the needed measurement sensitivities and stabilities quite challenging. Measurement SNRs and stabilities of >600:1 are needed to estimate CO2 mixing ratio at the 1-2 ppm level. We have calculated characteristics of the technique and have demonstrated aspects of the laser, detector and receiver approaches in th e laboratory We have also measured O2 in an absorption cell, and made C02 measurements over a 400 m long (one way) horizontal path using a sensor breadboard. We will describe these and more details of our approach in the paper.

Abshire, James B.↗