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At least 1,081 records · Page 60
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Probing the galaxy–halo connection with total satellite luminosity

ABSTRACT We demonstrate how the total luminosity in satellite galaxies is a powerful probe of dark matter haloes around central galaxies. The method cross-correlates central galaxies in spectroscopic galaxy samples with fainter galaxies detected in photometric surveys. Using models, we show that the total galaxy luminosity, Lsat, scales linearly with host halo mass, making Lsat an excellent proxy for Mh. Lsat is also sensitive to the formation time of the halo. We demonstrate that probes of galaxy large-scale environment can break this degeneracy. Although this is an indirect probe of the halo, it yields a high signal-to-noise ratio measurement for galaxies expected to occupy haloes at <1012 M⊙, where other methods suffer from larger errors. In this paper, we focus on observational and theoretical systematics in the Lsat method. We test the robustness of our method of finding central galaxies and our methods of estimating the number of background galaxies. We implement this method on galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data, with satellites identified in fainter imaging data. We find excellent agreement between our theoretical predictions and the observational measurements. Finally, we compare our Lsat measurements to weak lensing estimates of Mh for red and blue subsamples. In the stellar mass range where the measurements overlap, we find consistent results, where red galaxies live in larger haloes. However, the Lsat approach allows us to probe significantly lower mass galaxies. At these masses, the Lsat values are equivalent. This example shows the potential of Lsat as a probe of dark haloes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lattice QCD calculation of 𝑥-dependent meson distribution amplitudes at physical pion mass with threshold logarithm resummation

We present a lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) calculation of the 𝑥-dependent pion and kaon distribution amplitudes (DA) in the framework of large momentum effective theory. This calculation is performed on a fine lattice of 𝑎 = 0.076 fm at physical pion mass, with the pion boosted to 1.8 GeV and kaon boosted to 2.3 GeV. We renormalize the matrix elements in the hybrid scheme and match to Math output error with a subtraction of the leading renormalon in the Wilson-line mass. The perturbative matching is improved by resumming the large logarithms related to the small quark and gluon momenta in the soft-gluon limit. After resummation, we demonstrate that we are able to calculate a range of 𝑥 ∈[𝑥 0 ,1 − 𝑥 0 ] with 𝑥 0 = 0.25 for pion and 𝑥 0 = 0.2 for kaon with theoretical systematic errors under control. The kaon DA is shown to be slighted skewed, and narrower than pion DA. Although the 𝑥-dependence cannot be direct calculated beyond these ranges, we estimate higher moments of the pion and kaon DAs by complementing our calculation with short-distance factorization.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Principle of Maximum Conformality Correctly Resolves the Renormalization-Scheme-Dependence Problem

In this paper, we clarify a serious misinterpretation and consequent misuse of the Principle of Maximum Conformality (PMC), which also can serve as a mini-review of PMC. In a recently published article, P. M. Stevenson has claimed that “the PMC is ineffective and does nothing to resolve the renormalization-scheme-dependence problem”, concluding incorrectly that the success of PMC predictions is due to the PMC being a “laborious, ad hoc, and back-door” version of the Principle of Minimal Sensitivity (PMS). We show that such conclusions are incorrect, deriving from a misinterpretation of the PMC and an overestimation of the applicability of the PMS. The purpose of the PMC is to achieve precise fixed-order pQCD predictions, free from conventional renormalization schemes and scale ambiguities. We demonstrate that the PMC predictions satisfy all the self-consistency conditions of the renormalization group and standard renormalization-group invariance; the PMC predictions are thus independent of any initial choice of renormalization scheme and scale. The scheme independence of the PMC is also ensured by commensurate scale relations, which relate different observables to each other. Moreover, in the Abelian limit, the PMC dovetails into the well-known Gell-Mann–Low framework, a method universally revered for its precision in QED calculations. Due to the elimination of factorially divergent renormalon terms, the PMC series not only attains a convergence behavior far superior to that of its conventional counterparts but also deftly curtails any residual scale dependence caused by the unknown higher-order terms. This refined convergence, coupled with its robust suppression of residual uncertainties, furnishes a sound and reliable foundation for estimating the contributions from unknown higher-order terms. Anchored in the bedrock of standard renormalization-group invariance, the PMC simultaneously eradicates the factorial divergences and eliminates superfluous systematic errors, which inversely provides a good foundation for achieving high-precision pQCD predictions. Consequently, owing to its rigorous theoretical underpinnings, the PMC is eminently applicable to virtually all high-energy hadronic processes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling land use and land cover change: using a hindcast to estimate economic parameters in gcamland v2.0

Abstract. Future changes in land use and cover have important implications for agriculture, energy, water use, and climate. Estimates of future land use and land cover differ significantly across economic models as a result of differences in drivers, model structure, and model parameters; however, these models often rely on heuristics to determine model parameters. In this study, we demonstrate a more systematic and empirically based approach to estimating a few key parameters for an economic model of land use and land cover change, gcamland. Specifically, we generate a large set of model parameter perturbations for the selected parameters and run gcamland simulations with these parameter sets over the historical period in the United States to quantify land use and land cover, determine how well the model reproduces observations, and identify parameter combinations that best replicate observations, assuming other model parameters are fixed. We also test alternate methods for forming expectations about uncertain crop yields and prices, including adaptive, perfect, linear, and hybrid approaches. In particular, we estimate parameters for six parameters used in the formation of expectations and three of seven logit exponents for the USA only. We find that an adaptive expectation approach minimizes the error between simulated outputs and observations, with parameters that suggest that for most crops, landowners put a significant weight on previous information. Interestingly, for corn, where ethanol policies have led to a rapid growth in demand, the resulting parameters show that a larger weight is placed on more recent information. We examine the change in model parameters as the metric of model error changes, finding that the measure of model fitness affects the choice of parameter sets. Finally, we discuss how the methodology and results used in this study could be used for other regions or economic models to improve projections of future land use and land cover change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rapid Initial-State Preparation for the Quantum Simulation of Strongly Correlated Molecules

Studies on quantum algorithms for ground-state energy estimation often assume perfect ground-state preparation; however, in reality the initial state will have imperfect overlap with the true ground state. Here, we address that problem in two ways: by faster preparation of matrix-product-state (MPS) approximations and by more efficient filtering of the prepared state to find the ground-state energy. We show how to achieve unitary synthesis with a Toffoli complexity about 7 × lower than that in prior work and use that to derive a more efficient MPS-preparation method. For filtering, we present two different approaches: sampling and binary search. For both, we use the theory of window functions to avoid large phase errors and minimize the complexity. We find that the binary-search approach provides better scaling with the overlap at the cost of a larger constant factor, such that it will be preferred for overlaps less than about 0.003 . Finally, we estimate the total resources to perform ground-state energy estimation of Fe - S cluster systems, including the Fe Mo cofactor by estimating the overlap of different MPS initial states with potential ground states of the Fe Mo cofactor using an extrapolation procedure. With a modest MPS bond dimension of 4000 , our procedure produces an estimate of approximately 0.9 overlap squared with a candidate ground state of the Fe Mo cofactor, producing a total resource estimate of 7.3 × 10 10 Toffoli gates; neglecting the search over candidates and assuming the accuracy of the extrapolation, this validates prior estimates that have used perfect ground-state overlap. This presents an example of a practical path to prepare states of high overlap in a challenging-to-compute chemical system. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Berry, Dominic W. (ORCID:0000000334461449)↗
DOE OSTI2025

NREL ASSIST Barge / Thermodynamic retrievals TROPoe v0.19

This dataset contains daily files with thermodynamic profiles retrieved with the optimal estimation physical retrieval TROPoe v0.19 (Turner and Löhnert, 2014; Turner and Blumberg, 2019; Turner and Löhnert, 2021). The profiles are retrieved every 10 minutes from instantaneous observations from the NREL ASSIST-II (SN 12) infrared spectrometer. Observations are noise-filtered but not averaged in time to minimize errors due to non-uniform clouds. Additional input data in TROPoe are cloud base height from a collocated NREL Vaisala CL51 ceilometer (when available) or vertically staring Halo XR lidar, and surface temperature, relative humidity, and pressure from the collocated Oregon State University met tower. The full pipeline to run the retrieval is available at https://github.com/StefanoWind/TROPoe_processor. In addition to these temporally resolved input data, TROPoe requires an a priori dataset (prior) that provides mean climatological estimates of thermodynamic profiles and specifies how temperature and humidity covary with height as an input (for details see, e.g., Djalalova et al., 2022). The prior is a key component of the retrieval and provides a constraint on the ill-posed inversion problem. A monthly prior was computed from operational radiosonde launches at Upton, NY.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Point-Spread Function Modeling

We present the point-spread function (PSF) modeling for weak lensing shear measurement using the full six years of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y6) data. We review the PSF estimation procedure using the PIFF (PSFs In the Full FOV) software package and describe the key improvements made to PIFF and modeling diagnostics since the DES year three (Y3) analysis: (i) use of external Gaia and infrared photometry catalogs to ensure higher purity of the stellar sample used for model fitting, (ii) addition of color-dependent PSF modeling, the first for any weak lensing analysis, and (iii) inclusion of model diagnostics inspecting fourth-order moments, which can bias weak lensing measurements to a similar degree as second-order modeling errors. Through a comprehensive set of diagnostic tests, we demonstrate the improved accuracy of the Y6 models evident in significantly smaller systematic errors than those of the Y3 analysis, in which all g band data were excluded due to insufficiently accurate PSF models. For the Y6 weak lensing analysis, we include g band photometry data in addition to the riz bands, providing a fourth band for photometric redshift estimation. Looking forward to the next generation of wide-field surveys, we describe several ongoing improvements to PIFF, which will be the default PSF modeling software for weak lensing analyses for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sparsifying priors for Bayesian uncertainty quantification in model discovery

We propose a probabilistic model discovery method for identifying ordinary differential equations governing the dynamics of observed multivariate data. Our method is based on the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) framework, where models are expressed as sparse linear combinations of pre-specified candidate functions. Promoting parsimony through sparsity leads to interpretable models that generalize to unknown data. Instead of targeting point estimates of the SINDy coefficients, we estimate these coefficients via sparse Bayesian inference. The resulting method, uncertainty quantification SINDy (UQ-SINDy), quantifies not only the uncertainty in the values of the SINDy coefficients due to observation errors and limited data, but also the probability of inclusion of each candidate function in the linear combination. UQ-SINDy promotes robustness against observation noise and limited data, interpretability (in terms of model selection and inclusion probabilities) and generalization capacity for out-of-sample forecast. Sparse inference for UQ-SINDy employs Markov chain Monte Carlo, and we explore two sparsifying priors: the spike and slab prior, and the regularized horseshoe prior. UQ-SINDy is shown to discover accurate models in the presence of noise and with orders-of-magnitude less data than current model discovery methods, thus providing a transformative method for real-world applications which have limited data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measuring the Loschmidt Amplitude for Finite-Energy Properties of the Fermi-Hubbard Model on an Ion-Trap Quantum Computer

Calculating the equilibrium properties of condensed-matter systems is one of the promising applications of near-term quantum computing. Recently, hybrid quantum-classical time-series algorithms have been proposed to efficiently extract these properties from a measurement of the Loschmidt amplitude ⟨ ψ | e − i H ^ t | ψ ⟩ from initial states | ψ ⟩ and a time evolution under the Hamiltonian H ^ up to short times t . In this work, we study the operation of this algorithm on a present-day quantum computer. Specifically, we measure the Loschmidt amplitude for the Fermi-Hubbard model on a 16 -site ladder geometry (32 orbitals) on the Quantinuum H2-1 trapped-ion device. We assess the effect of noise on the Loschmidt amplitude and implement algorithm-specific error-mitigation techniques. By using a thus-motivated error model, we numerically analyze the influence of noise on the full operation of the quantum-classical algorithm by measuring expectation values of local observables at finite energies. Finally, we estimate the resources needed for scaling up the algorithm. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elliptically-Contoured Tensor-variate Distributions with Application to Image Learning

Statistical analysis of tensor-valued data has largely used the tensor-variate normal (TVN) distribution that may be inadequate for data arising from distributions with heavier or lighter tails. We study a general family of elliptically contoured (EC) TV distributions and derive its characterizations, moments, marginal, and conditional distributions. We describe procedures for maximum likelihood estimation from data that are (1) uncorrelated draws from an EC distribution, (2) from a scale mixture of the TVN distribution, and (3) from an underlying but unknown EC distribution, for which we extend Tyler’s robust estimator. A detailed simulation study highlights the benefits of choosing an EC distribution over the TVN for heavier-tailed data. We develop TV classification rules using discriminant analysis and EC errors and show that they better predict cats and dogs from images in the Animal Faces-HQ dataset than the TVN-based rules. A novel tensor-on-tensor regression and TV analysis of variance (TANOVA) framework under EC errors is also demonstrated to better characterize gender, age, and ethnic origin than the usual TVN-based TANOVA in the celebrated labeled faces of the wild dataset.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Frequency Division Multiplexing and Neural Networks in the Operation and Diagnosis of the Stator Current and Shaft Position Sensors Used in Electric/Hybrid Vehicles

Fast, precise and robust sensing of currents and motor shaft angle is essential for the excellent performance of electric and hybrid vehicles (EV/HEV). Multiplexing techniques are commonly applied in data acquisition systems (DAQs) to digitize the signals sensed in EV/HEV drives. Frequency-division multiplexing (FDM) applied to get the signals from current sensors and resolver angular position sensor has advantages over conventional multiplexing approaches. However, problems such as aging and mechanical imperfections distort the outputs of those sensors, producing measurement errors of the angular position and currents. Conventional techniques designed to compensate for those errors cannot be applied in signals multiplexed in frequency. This paper proposes online techniques to detect and compensate for the distortions in the resolver sensor and current sensors. The demultiplexing process was adjusted to allow distortion detection and compensation. An auto-associative neural network (ANN) compensates for the current measurement error, while an energy-based technique is applied to compensate for the distortions in the resolver outputs. The obtained results show that the distortions were compensated, allowing a more accurate estimation of stator currents and angular position when FDM is applied in EV/HEV DAQs.

Pereira Pinto, Joao↗
DOE OSTI2025

Informed total-error-minimizing priors: Interpretable cosmological parameter constraints despite complex nuisance effects

While Bayesian inference techniques are standard in cosmological analyses, it is common to interpret resulting parameter constraints with a frequentist intuition. This intuition can fail, for example, when marginalizing high-dimensional parameter spaces onto subsets of parameters, because of what has come to be known as projection effects or prior volume effects. We present the method of informed total-error-minimizing (ITEM) priors to address this problem. An ITEM prior is a prior distribution on a set of nuisance parameters, such as those describing astrophysical or calibration systematics, intended to enforce the validity of a frequentist interpretation of the posterior constraints derived for a set of target parameters (e.g., cosmological parameters). Our method works as follows. For a set of plausible nuisance realizations, we generate target parameter posteriors using several different candidate priors for the nuisance parameters. We reject candidate priors that do not accomplish the minimum requirements of bias (of point estimates) and coverage (of confidence regions among a set of noisy realizations of the data) for the target parameters on one or more of the plausible nuisance realizations. Of the priors that survive this cut, we select the ITEM prior as the one that minimizes the total error of the marginalized posteriors of the target parameters. As a proof of concept, we applied our method to the density split statistics measured in Dark Energy Survey Year 1 data. We demonstrate that the ITEM priors substantially reduce prior volume effects that otherwise arise and that they allow for sharpened yet robust constraints on the parameters of interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cosmology intertwined: A review of the particle physics, astrophysics, and cosmology associated with the cosmological tensions and anomalies

The standard Λ Cold Dark Matter (ΛCDM) cosmological model provides a good description of a wide range of astrophysical and cosmological data. However, there are a few big open questions that make the standard model look like an approximation to a more realistic scenario yet to be found. In this paper, we list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, taking into account the current discordances between the different cosmological probes, such as the disagreement in the value of the Hubble constant H 0 , the σ 8 – S 8 tension, and other less statistically significant anomalies. While these discordances can still be in part the result of systematic errors, their persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the necessity for new physics or generalisations beyond the standard model. In this paper, we focus on the 5.0 σ tension between the Planck CMB estimate of the Hubble constant H 0 and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the H 0 evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we list a few interesting new physics models that could alleviate this tension and discuss how the next decade's experiments will be crucial. Moreover, we focus on the tension of the Planck CMB data with weak lensing measurements and redshift surveys, about the value of the matter energy density Ω m , and the amplitude or rate of the growth of structure ( σ 8 , f σ 8 ). We list a few interesting models proposed for alleviating this tension, and we discuss the importance of trying to fit a full array of data with a single model and not just one parameter at a time. Additionally, we present a wide range of other less discussed anomalies at a statistical significance level lower than the H 0 – S 8 tensions which may also constitute hints towards new physics, and we discuss possible generic theoretical approaches that can collectively explain the non-standard nature of these signals. Finally, we give an overview of upgraded experiments and next-generation space missions and facilities on Earth that will be of crucial importance to address all these open questions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the applicability of the Redlich-Kister framework for viscosity estimation of molten halide salt mixtures

For molten halide salt mixtures already being utilized or under consideration for carbon-free energy production systems, it is crucial that their viscosity is well understood so that system thermal hydraulics can be reliably assessed. Because of the difficulty in accurately measuring molten halide viscosity and the sheer size of the matrix of possible higher order salt mixtures that may be of interest to the energy industry, there are several gaps in the quantified understanding of molten halide viscosity across this matrix. As such, both first-principles and semi-empirical modeling techniques may be crucial for rapidly assessing this broad, complex compositional domain. Herein, the Redlich-Kister framework is applied to assess the feasibility of broadly interpolating and estimating the viscosity of several pseudobinary and pseudoternary molten halide salt systems that may be of key interest to the energy industry. The framework is based on the assumption that an ideal component and a nonideal component collectively describe the viscosity as a function of composition and temperature for a given molten halide system. Three different ideal models were considered for the ideal component, including Grunburg-Nissan, Katti-Chaudhri, and Gambill methods. Regarding the pseudobinary interpolations, the Redlich-Kister models with either the Grunburg-Nissan or Katti-Chaudhri models as the ideal component resulted in either highly (average error less than 5%) or reasonably (average error less than 15%) accurate interpolations of pseudobinary halide viscosity; BeF 2 - or UF 4 -bearing salts tended to result in reasonably accurate interpolations, whereas other pseudobinary mixtures tended to show high accuracy. Regarding the pseudoternary extrapolations, the Redlich-Kister framework shows reasonable success at estimating the extent to which a pseudoternary system may indicate deviations from ideal Grunburg-Nissan mixing, where discrepancies with comparative experimental data generally stay within 30%. Finally, the primary reasons identified for such discrepancies are (1) inaccuracy in the underlying experimental data, (2) different complexation behavior in the higher order systems compared to the pseudobinary subsystems, and (3) extrapolation into temperatures too far out of the domain, which is valid for the underlying experimental data feeding the Redlich-Kister model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

OzDES Reverberation Mapping Programme: the first Mg ii lags from 5 yr of monitoring

ABSTRACT Reverberation mapping is a robust method to measure the masses of supermassive black holes outside of the local Universe. Measurements of the radius–luminosity (R−L) relation using the Mg ii emission line are critical for determining these masses near the peak of quasar activity at z ≈ 1−2, and for calibrating secondary mass estimators based on Mg ii that can be applied to large samples with only single-epoch spectroscopy. We present the first nine Mg ii lags from our 5-yr Australian Dark Energy Survey reverberation mapping programme, which substantially improves the number and quality of Mg ii lag measurements. As the Mg ii feature is somewhat blended with iron emission, we model and subtract both the continuum and iron contamination from the multiepoch spectra before analysing the Mg ii line. We also develop a new method of quantifying correlated spectroscopic calibration errors based on our numerous, contemporaneous observations of F-stars. The lag measurements for seven of our nine sources are consistent with both the H β and Mg ii R−L relations reported by previous studies. Our simulations verify the lag reliability of our nine measurements, and we estimate that the median false positive rate of the lag measurements is $4{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Computational Information Criterion for Particle-Tracking with Sparse or Noisy Data

Traditional probabilistic methods for the simulation of advection-diffusion equations (ADEs) often overlook the entropic contribution of the discretization, e.g., the number of particles, within associated numerical methods. Many times, the gain in accuracy of a highly discretized numerical model is outweighed by its associated computational costs or the noise within the data. Herein, we address the question of how many particles are needed in a simulation to best approximate and estimate parameters in one-dimensional advective-diffusive transport. To do so, we use the well-known Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and a recently-developed correction called the Computational Information Criterion (COMIC) to guide the model selection process. Random-walk and mass-transfer particle tracking methods are employed to solve the model equations at various levels of discretization. Numerical results demonstrate that the COMIC provides an optimal number of particles that can describe a more efficient model in terms of parameter estimation and model prediction compared to the model selected by the AIC even when the data is sparse or noisy, the sampling volume is not uniform throughout the physical domain, or the error distribution of the data is non-IID Gaussian.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A rigorous physics-based enhanced parameter estimation (EPE) methodology for calibration of building energy simulations

Buildings rarely perform as designed/simulated and there are numerous tangible benefits if this gap is reconciled. A new scientifically rigorous yet pragmatic methodology for calibrating building energy simulations - called Enhanced Parameter Estimation (EPE) - is proposed that allows physically relevant parameter estimation rather than a blind force-fit to energy use data. Starting with a rapidly created simulation model, calibration is performed in two stages: (a) building shell calibration with the HVAC system replaced by an ideal system that meets the loads (b) HVAC system calibration with the building shell and all internal loads replaced by a box with only process loads. In the first stage, EPE identifies a small number of high-level heat flows in the energy balance, calculates them with specifically tailored individual driving functions, introduces physically significant parameters to best accomplish energy balance, and, estimates the parameters and their uncertainty bounds. Calibration is thus done with corrective heat flows without any arbitrary tuning of input parameters. Calibration accuracy is enhanced by machine learning of the residual errors. The EPE methodology is demonstrated by means of: a synthetic building and an actual 75,000 sq. ft. building in Pennsylvania. Future work needed for widespread application is discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fingerprints of external forcings on Sahel rainfall: aerosols, greenhouse gases, and model-observation discrepancies

Over the 20th and 21st centuries, both anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases and changes in anthropogenic aerosols have affected rainfall in the Sahel. Using multiple characteristics of Sahel precipitation, we construct a multivariate fingerprint that allows us to distinguish between the model-predicted responses to greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Models project the emergence of a detectable signal of aerosol forcing in the middle of the 20th century and a detectable signal of greenhouse gas forcing at the beginning of the 21st. However, the signals of both aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing in observations emerge earlier and are stronger than in the models, far stronger in the case of aerosols. The similarity between the response to aerosol forcing and the leading mode of internal variability makes it difficult to attribute this model-observation discrepancy to errors in the forcing, errors in the forced response, model inability to capture the amplitude of internal variability, or some combination of these. For greenhouse gases, however, the forced response is distinct from internal variability as estimated by models, and the observations are largely commensurate with the model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗