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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Hydrodynamic computations of high-power laser drives generating metal ejecta jets from surface grooves

Understanding dynamic fragmentation in shock-loaded metals and predicting properties of the resulting ejecta are of considerable importance for both basic and applied science. The nature of material ejection has been shown to change drastically when the free surface melts on compression or release. In this work, we present hydrodynamic simulations of laser-driven microjetting from micron-scale grooves on a tin surface. We study microjet formation across a range of shock strengths from drives that leave the target solid after release to drives that induce shock melting in the target. The shock-state particle velocity (Up) varies from 0.3 to 3 km/s and the shock breakout pressure is 3–120 GPa. The microjet tip velocity is 1–8 km/s and the free-surface velocity varies from 0.1 to 5 km/s. Two tin equations of state are examined: a “soft” model (LEOS 501) where the target melts for U p > 1 km/s and a more detailed multiphase model (SESAME 2161) that melts for U p > 1.4 km/s. We use these two models to examine the influence of phase change and the choice of the material model on microjet formation and evolution. We observe in our computational results that jet formation can be classified into three regimes: a low-energy regime where material strength affects jet formation, a moderate-energy regime dominated by the changing phase of tin material, and a high-energy regime where results are insensitive to the material model and jet formation is described by an idealized steady-jet theory. Using an ensemble of 2D simulations, we show that these trends hold across a wide range of drive energies and groove angles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Fundamental microscopic properties as predictors of large-scale quantities of interest: Validation through grain boundary energy trends

Correlations between fundamental microscopic properties computable from first principles, which we term canonical properties, and complex large-scale quantities of interest (QoIs) provide an avenue to predictive materials discovery. Here, we propose that such correlations can be efficiently discovered through simulations utilizing approximate interatomic potentials (IPs), which serve as an ensemble of “synthetic materials”. As a proof of principle we build a regression model relating canonical properties to the symmetric tilt grain boundary (GB) energy curves in face-centered cubic crystals, characterized by the scaling factor in the universal lattice matching model of Runnels et al. (2016), which we take to be our QoI. Our analysis recovers known correlations of GB energy to other properties and discovers new ones. We also demonstrate, using available density functional theory (DFT) GB energy data, that the regression model constructed from IP data is consistent with DFT results, confirming the assumption that the IPs and DFT belong to same statistical pool and thereby validating the approach. Regression models constructed in this fashion can be used to predict large-scale QoIs based on first-principles data and provide a general method for training IPs for QoIs beyond the scope of first-principles calculations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The role of SAXS and molecular simulations in 3D structure elucidation of a DNA aptamer against lung cancer

Aptamers are short, single-stranded DNA or RNA oligonucleotide molecules that function as synthetic analogs of antibodies and bind to a target molecule with high specificity. Aptamer affinity entirely depends on its tertiary structure and charge distribution. Therefore, length and structure optimization are essential for increasing aptamer specificity and affinity. Here, we present a general optimization procedure for finding the most populated atomistic structures of DNA aptamers. Based on the existed aptamer LC-18 for lung adenocarcinoma, a new truncated LC-18 (LC-18t) aptamer LC-18t was developed. A three-dimensional (3D) shape of LC-18t was reported based on small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) experiments and molecular modeling by fragment molecular orbital or molecular dynamic methods. Molecular simulations revealed an ensemble of possible aptamer conformations in solution that were in close agreement with measured SAXS data. The aptamer LC-18t had stronger binding to cancerous cells in lung tumor tissues and shared the binding site with the original larger aptamer. The suggested approach reveals 3D shapes of aptamers and helps in designing better affinity probes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Assessments of epistemic uncertainty using Gaussian stochastic weight averaging for fluid-flow regression

Here, we use Gaussian stochastic weight averaging (SWAG) to assess the epistemic uncertainty associated with neural-network-based function approximation relevant to fluid flows. SWAG approximates a posterior Gaussian distribution of each weight, given training data, and a constant learning rate. Having access to this distribution, it is able to create multiple models with various combinations of sampled weights, which can be used to obtain ensemble predictions. The average of such an ensemble can be regarded as the 'mean estimation', whereas its standard deviation can be used to construct 'confidence intervals', which enable us to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) with regard to the training process of neural networks. We utilize representative neural-network-based function approximation tasks for the following cases: (i) a two-dimensional circular-cylinder wake; (ii) the DayMET dataset (maximum daily temperature in North America); (iii) a three-dimensional square-cylinder wake; and (iv) urban flow, to assess the generalizability of the present idea for a wide range of complex datasets. SWAG-based UQ can be applied regardless of the network architecture, and therefore, we demonstrate the applicability of the method for two types of neural networks: (i) global field reconstruction from sparse sensors by combining convolutional neural network (CNN) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP); and (ii) far-field state estimation from sectional data with two-dimensional CNN. We find that SWAG can obtain physically-interpretable confidence-interval estimates from the perspective of epistemic uncertainty. This capability supports its use for a wide range of problems in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Amorphous Calcium Carbonate: Interpretation of Pair Distribution Function and X-Ray Absorption Spectroscopy Data

The structure and transformation of hydrous amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC) are key to understanding biomineralization pathways and their relationship with the properties of the resulting material. Quantitative interpretation of scattering experiments aimed at elucidating the structure of ACC is challenging, due to the amorphous nature of this material, and, therefore, requires models for the structure and the scattering physics. Here, we generate physically realistic ensembles of hydrated ACC structures and their vibrational disorder from ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations with an emphasis on enabling the consistent interpretation of the finer details of three complementary structural probes: neutron and x-ray pair distribution experiments and x-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS). In each case, we simulate the signal directly in reciprocal space and then manipulate it into the real-space pair distribution function (PDF) or spectrum using the same procedures for the experimental and theoretical data. Good agreement with experiment was obtained across the three techniques with the simulations accounting well for all features in the spectra. Remaining small discrepancies pointed to differences between real samples and the idealized simulated systems such as deviations from the nominal CaCO3·nH2O stoichiometry. Additionally, the simulations offered a more accurate description of the local coordination environment of calcium than previous shell-by-shell fits to spectra of synthetic ACC and classical molecular dynamics simulations. This work demonstrates that AIMD is a powerful approach for extracting detailed structural information from neutron PDF, x-ray PDF, and XAS of amorphous carbonate phases.

Prange, Micah P.↗

Resolving Mesoscale Convective Systems: Grid Spacing Sensitivity in the Tropics and Midlatitudes

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a critical global water cycle component and drive extreme precipitation events in tropical and midlatitude regions. However, simulating deep convection remains challenging for modern numerical weather and climate models due to the complex interactions of processes from microscales to synoptic scales. Recent models with kilometer‐scale horizontal grid spacings offer notable improvements in simulating deep convection compared to coarser‐resolution models. Still, deficiencies in representing key physical processes, such as entrainment, lead to systematic biases. Additionally, evaluating model outputs using process‐oriented observational data remain difficult. This study presents an ensemble of MCS simulations with spanning the deep convective gray zone ( from 12 km to 125 m) in the Southern Great Plains of the U.S. and the Amazon Basin. Comparing these simulations with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) wind profiler observations, we find greater sensitivity in the Amazon Basin compared to the Great Plains. Convective drafts converge structurally at sub‐kilometer scales, but some deficiencies remain. In both regions, simulated up and downdrafts are too deep and extreme downdrafts are not strong enough. Furthermore, Amazonian updrafts are too strong. Overall, we observe higher sensitivity in the tropics, including an artificial buildup in vertical kinetic energy at scales of , suggesting a need for 250 m in this region. Nevertheless, bulk convergence—agreement of storm‐average statistics—is achievable with kilometer‐scale simulations within a 10% error margin with 1 km providing a good balance between accuracy and computational cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing a complete AI-accelerated workflow for superconductor discovery

The quest to identify new superconducting materials with enhanced properties is hindered by the prohibitive cost of computing electron-phonon spectral functions, severely limiting the materials space that can be explored. Here, we introduce a Bootstrapped Ensemble of Equivariant Graph Neural Networks (BEE-NET), a machine-learning model trained to predict the Eliashberg spectral function and superconducting critical temperature with a mean-absolute-error of 0.87 K relative to DFT-based Allen-Dynes calculations. Intriguingly, BEE-NET achieves a true-negative-rate of 99.4%, enabling highly efficient screening for the rare property of superconductivity. Integrated into a multi-stage, AI-accelerated discovery pipeline that incorporates elemental-substitution strategies and machine-learned interatomic potentials, our workflow reduced over 1.3 million candidate structures to 741 dynamically and thermodynamically stable compounds with DFT-confirmed T c > 5 K. We report the successful synthesis and experimental confirmation of superconductivity in two of these previously unreported compounds. This study establishes a data-driven framework that integrates machine learning, quantum calculations, and experiments to systematically accelerate superconductor discovery.

Gibson, Jason B. [Quantum Formatics, Cambridge, MA↗

Holevo information and ensemble theory of gravity

Holevo information is an upper bound for the accessible classical information of an ensemble of quantum states. In this work, we use Holevo information to investigate the ensemble theory interpretation of quantum gravity. We study the Holevo information in random tensor network states, where the random parameters are the random tensors at each vertex. Based on the results in random tensor network models, we propose a conjecture on the holographic bulk formula of the Holevo information in the gravity case. As concrete examples of holographic systems, we compute the Holevo information in the ensemble of thermal states and thermo-field double states in the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev model. The results are consistent with our conjecture.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Popnet : computer vision based deep learning model for forecasting gridded population

Here, this study introduces Popnet, a deep learning model for forecasting 1 km-gridded populations, integrating U-Net, ConvLSTM, a Spatial Autocorrelation module and deep ensemble methods. Using spatial variables and population data from 2000 to 2020, Popnet predicts South Korea’s population trends by age groups (under 14, 15-64 and over 65) up to 2040. In validation, it outperforms traditional machine learning and state-of-the-art computer vision models. The output of this model discovered significant polarisation: population growth in urban areas, especially the capital region, and severe depopulation in rural areas. Popnet is a robust tool for offering significant insights to policymakers and related stakeholders about the detailed future population, which allows them to establish detailed, localised planning and resource allocations.

computer vision↗

Improved Representations of Land‐Atmosphere Interactions Over the Continental U.S. Through Dynamic Root Modeling

Previous studies have identified the oversimplified root system representation as a key factor leading to inaccuracies in vegetation‐atmosphere feedbacks. In this study, a dynamic root water uptake scheme in the Noah‐MP land surface model has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate its impact on the surface hydroclimate variables and land‐atmosphere interactions. To evaluate the impact of the dynamic root, two coupled simulations were conducted, one with the dynamic root water uptake scheme (DynRt) and one with the static root water uptake scheme (StcRt), which is based on the default root representation in Noah‐MP, with slight modifications, primarily in vegetation‐related parameters. Both DynRt and StcRt simulations were conducted with a small ensemble of three members to account for variations in physical parameterizations, initial and boundary forcing and model setup. When compared with reference data sets, the DynRt simulations show improved results than the StcRt simulations, reducing biases in the simulated leaf area index, surface energy fluxes, soil moisture and precipitation. Two different mechanisms through which roots affect land‐atmosphere coupling have been identified. Over the transitional climate zone between the dry and wet climate, the dynamic root scheme affects surface climate and land‐atmosphere coupling mainly through changes in soil moisture through hydraulic redistribution by plant root system. Over the energy‐limited mesic zone, the dynamic root affects regional land‐atmosphere coupling mainly through changes in carbon allocation. This work highlights the importance of dynamic root representation in improving vegetation‐atmosphere simulations by enhancing predictions of water, energy, and carbon fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermodynamic modeling of the Pd–Zn system with uncertainty quantification and its implication to tailor catalysts

Pd–Zn intermetallic catalysts show encouraging combinations of activity and selectivity on well-defined active site ensembles. Thermodynamic description of the Pd–Zn system, delineating phase boundaries and enumerating site occupancies within intermediate alloy phases, is essential to determining the ensembles of Pd–Zn atoms as a function of composition and temperature. Combining the present extensive first-principles calculations based on density functional theory (DFT) and available experimental data, the Pd–Zn system was remodeled using the CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) approach. High throughput modeling tools with uncertainty quantification, i.e., ESPEI and PyCalphad, were incorporated in the phase analysis. Here, the site occupancies across the γ phase composition region were given special attention. A four-sublattice model was used for the γ phase owing to its four Wyckoff positions, i.e., the outer tetrahedral (OT) site 8c, the inner tetrahedral (IT) site 8c, the octahedral (OH) site 12e, and the cuboctahedral (CO) site 24g. The site fractions of Pd and Zn calculated from the present thermodynamic model show the occupancy preference of Pd in the OT and OH sublattices in agreement with experimental observations. The force constants obtained from DFT-based phonon calculations further supports the tendency of Pd occupying the OH sublattice compared with the IT and CO sublattice. The catalytic ensembles changing from Pd monomers (Pd 1 ) to trimers (Pd 3 ) on the surface of γ phase are attributed to the increase of Pd occupancy in the OH sublattice.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cyclone Fani: the tug-of-war between regional warming and anthropogenic aerosol effects

Before Cyclone Amphan took place in 2020, Cyclone Fani (May 2019) is the strongest pre-monsoon cyclone in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) since 1991, killing 90 people in eastern India and Bangladesh while causing US$1.81 billion of damages. Fani developed during a period of high concentration of anthropogenic aerosols in the BOB with abnormally high sea surface temperature (SST), thereby presenting an opportunity to understand the compound effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional climate warming on a tropical cyclone. A quantitative attribution analysis was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) run at the convection-permitting (4 km) grid spacing, accompanied by an ensemble of coarser-resolution simulations to quantify the uncertainty. The removal of post-1990 trends in the tropospheric variables and SST from WRF-Chem's initial conditions (IC) and boundary conditions (BC, including the lateral and lower boundary conditions) resulted in a reduction of cyclone precipitation by about 51% during the 5 d of April 28-May 2. The removal of tropospheric warming shows approximately twice as strong an effect on Fani (39% reduction in precipitation) as that of SST warming (22% reduction). When aerosol's direct and indirect effects were removed from the simulations, i.e., no aerosol influence on radiation and cloud microphysics, Fani initially strengthened but later weakened, as measured by geopotential height and precipitation amounts. These results suggest that aerosol and its interaction with the atmosphere acted to mitigate the strengthening effect of anthropogenic warming on Fani, but was not strong enough to entirely counteract it. Although the ensemble of coarser simulations appears to overestimate Cyclone Fani in terms of precipitation, the direction of the effects is in agreement with that obtained from the 4 km simulations. Given the increasing anthropogenic aerosols in the BOB, future attribution studies using more sophisticated dynamical aerosol models on BOB tropical cyclones are urged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Response of Precipitation Extremes to the Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Global Temperature Change in a Comprehensive Suite of CESM1 Large Ensemble Simulation: Revisiting the Role of Forcing Agents Vs. the Role of Forcing Magnitudes

The response of precipitation extremes (PEs) to global warming is found to be nonlinear in Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and other global climate models (Pendergrass et al., 2019), which led to the concern that it is not accurate to approximate the response of PE to a single forcing as the difference between simulations with all forcing agents and those that exclude one specific forcing. This calls into question previous model-based results that the sensitivity of PE with warming due to aerosol forcing is significantly larger than that due to greenhouse gases (GHGs). We reevaluate the PE sensitivity to GHGs and aerosols using available CESM1 ensemble simulations. We show that although the PE response to warming is nonlinear in CESM1, especially for the high warming projected in the twenty-first-century, PE sensitivity to aerosols is still significantly stronger than that due to GHGs when the comparison is made within similar warming regimes to avoid the bias induced by the nonlinear behavior. But the difference is smaller than previously estimated. We also conclude that the additivity assumption is largely valid to isolate the PE response due to aerosol forcing from the paired simulations including the “all forcing” experiment when the warming regime is small (e.g., 1°C–2°C in the next few decades when aerosol forcing is projected to decline and becomes a major source of uncertainty for model projection).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On the quantification and efficient propagation of imprecise probabilities with copula dependence

This paper addresses the problem of quantification and propagation of uncertainties associated with dependence modeling when data for characterizing probability models are limited. Practically, the system inputs are often assumed to be mutually independent or correlated by a multivariate Gaussian distribution. However, this subjective assumption may introduce bias in the response estimate if the real dependence structure deviates from this assumption. In this work, we overcome this limitation by introducing a flexible copula dependence model to capture complex dependencies. Here, a hierarchical Bayesian multimodel approach is proposed to quantify uncertainty in dependence model-form and model parameters that result from small data sets. This approach begins by identifying, through Bayesian multimodel inference, a set of candidate marginal models and their corresponding model probabilities, and then estimating the uncertainty in the copula-based dependence structure, which is conditional on the marginals and their parameters. The overall uncertainties integrating marginals and copulas are probabilistically represented by an ensemble of multivariate candidate densities. A novel importance sampling reweighting approach is proposed to efficiently propagate the overall uncertainties through a computational model. Through an example studying the influence of constituent properties on the out-of-plane properties of transversely isotropic E-glass fiber composites, we show that the composite property with copula-based dependence model converges to the true estimate as data set size increases, while an independence or arbitrary Gaussian correlation assumption leads to a biased estimate.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Collaborative Research: Advancing Arctic Climate Projection Capability at Seasonal to Decadal Scales (Final Technical Report)

The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) at process resolving configurations has been used to (i) advance understanding of physical processes and feedbacks involved in Arctic amplification and (ii) understand and potentially reduce uncertainty in prediction of arctic climate change at seasonal to decadal scales. RASM consists the atmosphere (Weather and Research Forecasting model, WRF), ocean (Parallel Ocean Program, POP), sea ice (CICE), land hydrology (Variable Infiltration Capacity model, VIC), river routing scheme (RVIC), marine biogeochemistry components and the coupling framework (CPL7). Its domain is pan-Arctic, with the atmosphere and land components configured on a 50-km or 25-km grid and four configurations of the ocean and sea ice components: 1/12°(~9.3km) or 1/48°(~2.4km) and 45 or 60 vertical layers. These RASM configurations have been motivated by the emerging exascale capability for high performance computing to improve model fidelity. The dynamical downscaling of reanalysis allows comparison of RASM results with observations in place and time to: (i) advance system level understanding of physical processes and coupling involved in an event, (ii) optimize model parameter space, (iii) diagnose and reduce model biases and (iv) produce realistic and consistent across all the components initial conditions for predictions and predictability studies, which are all unique capabilities not available in global Earth System Models (ESMs). An evaluation of RASM 1.0 (Cassano et al. 2017) revealed that it had a cold bias over the oceans and a warm bias over land areas due largely to cloud and radiation biases in the model, with too little cloud cover simulated over land and too much cloud cover simulated over sub-polar oceans. This study has motivated an upgrade to WRF version 3.7.1 in RASM and allowed for the inclusion of the radiative impact of convective clouds. A variety of atmospheric physics parameterizations were evaluated against observations (e.g. data from the Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment (ACSE); Sedlar et al. 2020) to identify an optimal suite of WRF physics options in RASM. The RASM with the optimized WRF physics were used to study the impact of strong mesoscale winds over the ocean around the southern tip of Greenland (DuVivier and Cassano 2016) and their impact on oceanic convection (DuVivier et al. 2017a). Data from the PolarWinds field campaign were used to evaluate WRF boundary layer physics and resolution impacts on the simulation of a Greenland barrier wind event (DuVivier et al. 2017b). The RVIC streamflow routing model has been implemented in RASM to realistically represent high-resolution streamflow processes (Hamman et al. 2017) and to couple the land buoyancy fluxes to the ocean. The RASM-RVIC high-resolution data set of all coastal freshwater fluxes for the Arctic drainage basin and surrounding areas for 1979-2014 was published as a separate product (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.293037). The fidelity of atmospheric momentum transfer to and the response of polar marine Ekman layer in RASM and Community Earth System Model (CESM) was investigated by Roberts et al. (2015). The increased frequency of oceanic flux exchange in CESM, following the RASM guidance, caused a considerable increase in the median inertial ice speed across the Southern Ocean and parts of the Arctic. A comprehensive evaluation of the RASM1.0 atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land interface was completed by Brunke et al. (2018). RASM was also demonstrated for its capability to simulate extreme events in agreement with observations in space and time (Lee et al. submitted). In particular, the development of three open water events, known as polynyas, have been simulated north of Greenland in February of 2011, 2017 and 2018, in agreement with satellite observations for the past four decades. The optimized RASM sea ice results have been favorably evaluated against satellite observations and a subset of eleven CMIP6 models (Watts et al. submitted). In a complementary project, Jin et al. (2018) have shown that RASM with higher-resolution and new sea-ice processes contributed to lower model errors in sea-ice conditions, concentrations of nutrients and ice algae, in comparison to results from the coarse-resolution (1°) CESM. In two other complementary studies, RASM results were used (i) to explain areas of concentrated use by bowhead whales, the seasonal progression in the use, and the physical environment within those areas (Citta et al. 2015) and (ii) for a synthesis of fall bowhead whales distribution and migration in the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort (BCB) Sea to investigate whale movements and feeding to the local ocean hydrography and currents (Citta et al. 2018). However, the multi-decadal output from the CESM Large Ensemble yielded unrealistic forcing. Instead, the shorter NCEP CFSv2 9-month forecasts were successfully tested and afforded an increased ensemble size (~30) to demonstrate gains of dynamical downscaling at sub-seasonal to intra-annual time scales. The improved model physics and coupling among RASM model components have yielded more realistic representation of the sea ice cover and consistent across all model components initial conditions. Consequently, RASM demonstrates significant gains compared to simulation of sea ice in the NCEP reanalysis. In addition, RASM 6-month ensemble forecasts yield very realistic sea ice distribution, which demonstrates both significant gains of dynamical downscaling and the continued impact of the initial conditions on forecasts out to 6 months (https://nps.edu/web/rasm/predictions). A follow up study using RASM for dynamical downscaling of the more realistic CESM initialized Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble output is currently ongoing as part of the DOE RGMA HiLAT-RASM project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Weakened Orographic Influence on Cool-Season Precipitation in Simulations of Future Warming Over the Western US

High-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations of global warming consistently predict larger percentage increases in precipitation in the lee of midlatitude mountain ranges than on their windward slopes, indicating a weakening of the orographic rain shadow. This redistribution of precipitation could have profound consequences for water resources and ecosystems, but its underlying mechanisms are unknown. Here we show that rain-shadow weakening is just one manifestation of a more general decrease in the influence of orography on precipitation under global warming. We introduce a simple model of precipitation change based on this principle, and find that it agrees well with an ensemble of high-resolution simulations performed over the western United States. We argue that diminished orographic influence can be explained by the unique vertical structure of orographically forced ascent, which tends to maximize in the lower atmosphere where condensation is thermodynamically less sensitive to warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Representative Phenomena of Cyclic Turbulent Combustion in High-Pressure Fuel Sprays

Abstract Cyclic variations in conventional diesel combustion engines can lead to large differences in engine out emissions even at steady operation. This study uses an optically accessible constant-pressure flow chamber to acquire fuel injections in quick succession to analyze mixing, auto-ignition, and combustion of diesel-surrogate n-heptane using multiple high-speed optical diagnostics. Prior studies have utilized fewer injections and/or they rely on analysis of ensemble average behavior. These approaches do not yield information on injection-to-injection variation or provide confidence in utilizing individual injection measurements for high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics(CFD) model validation. In this study, a large set of 500 injections is used to obtain global parameters including liquid length, vapor penetration length, ignition delay time, and lift-off length. Results for multiple injections are presented to illustrate large injection to injection variations. Potential sources for these variations are analyzed to conclude localized, small scale turbulence and rate of injection variations as the likely sources. Then, a statistical method based on z-scores is proposed and implemented to identify instantaneous injections that best represent the bulk data-set of jet boundaries measured independently by three different diagnostics. This synthesis of statistics-guided screening of data set and ensemble-average analysis offers higher confidence for CFD model validation relying upon both a representative single and average injection results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Statistics of base polytopes in F-theory

We propose a new statistical ensemble of toric bases for elliptic Calabi-Yaus used in F-theory models, by focusing on only the convex hull of the base, i.e., the base polytope. This physically motivated coarse-graining greatly simplifies the combinatorial complexity of the part of the 4d F-theory landscape with toric bases. We develop a Monte Carlo approach that randomly samples the base polytopes within fixed boxes, with proper statistical weights. We first apply the algorithm to the set of 2d base polytopes, generating an enlarged set of toric 2d bases that include certain types of codimension-two (4,6) points, and we validate our approach against exact numbers. We then explore the set of 3d base polytopes which fit in a set of “maximal” 3d boxes, and estimate the total number of inequivalent 3d base polytopes to be 10 85 –10 90 . We provide statistical data such as the distribution of non-Higgsable gauge groups on these bases. Amusingly, a similar method can also be applied to generate reflexive polytopes in various dimensions. In both the reflexive and base polytope cases, the number of relevant polytopes obeys a Gaussian distribution as a function of the number of vertices, which can be understood in terms of other results on random polytopes in the math literature.

Differential and algebraic geometry↗