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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

Does UV CETI Suffer from the MAD Syndrome?

Data have been reduced and partially analyzed and models have been fitted. ASCA data indicate a metal-poor corona, with metals down by a factor of 3 or more relative to the photospheric values. EUVE data show a FIP effect, which is expected if the metals are enhanced rather than depleted. An absolute measure of the metal abundance has not yet been performed for the EUVE data. Either the FIP effect is in operation in the presence of a global depletion of metals, or the ASCA analysis is giving the wrong answer. The latter could be the case if the plasma models applied are incomplete. Further investigation into this is warranted prior to publication.

Drake, Jeremy↗

KSI UMA and the FIP Effect Versus Metal Poor Coronae Conundrum

Analysis of the data has been completed. ASCA data indicate a metal-poor corona, with metals down by a factor of 3 or more relative to the photospheric values. EUVE data show a FIP Effect, which is Expected if the metals are enhanced rather than depleted. Some finishing touches need to be applied to an absolute measure of metal Abundance based on the EUVE data. A paper aimed for the Astrophysical journal is in preparation.

Drake, Jeremy↗

Light Absorption of Stratospheric Aerosols: Long-Term Trend and Contribution by Aircraft

Measurements of aerosol light-absorption coefficients are useful for studies of radiative transfer and heating rates. Ogren appears to have published the first light- absorption coefficients in the stratosphere in 1981, followed by Clarke in 1983 and Pueschel in 1992. Because most stratospheric soot appears to be due to aircraft operations, application of an aircraft soot aerosol emission index to projected fuel consumption suggests a threefold increase of soot loading and light absorption by 2025. Together, those four data sets indicate an increase in mid-visible light extinction at a rate of 6 % per year. This trend is similar to the increase per year of sulfuric acid aerosol and of commercial fleet size. The proportionality between stepped-up aircraft operations above the tropopause and increases in stratospheric soot and sulfuric acid aerosol implicate aircraft as a source of stratospheric pollution. Because the strongly light-absorbing soot and the predominantly light-scattering sulfuric acid aerosol increase at similar rates, however, the mid-visible stratospheric aerosol single scatter albedo is expected to remain constant and not approach a critical value of 0.98 at which stratospheric cooling could change to warming.

Pueschel , R. F.↗

Carbon-Carbon Recuperators in Closed-Brayton-Cycle Nuclear Space Power Systems: A Feasibility Assessment

The feasibility of using carbon-carbon recuperators in closed-Brayton-cycle (CBC) nuclear space power conversion systems (PCS) was assessed. Recuperator performance expectations were forecast based on projected thermodynamic cycle state values for a planetary mission. Resulting thermal performance, mass and volume for a plate-fin carbon-carbon recuperator were estimated and quantitatively compared with values for a conventional offset-strip-fin metallic design. Material compatibility issues regarding carbon-carbon surfaces exposed to the working fluid in the CBC PCS were also discussed.

Barrett, Michael J.↗

Carbon-Carbon Recuperators in Closed-Brayton-Cycle Space Power Systems

The feasibility of using carbon-carbon (C-C) recuperators in conceptual closed-Brayton-cycle space power conversion systems was assessed. Recuperator performance expectations were forecast based on notional thermodynamic cycle state values for potential planetary missions. Resulting thermal performance, mass and volume for plate-fin C-C recuperators were estimated and quantitatively compared with values for conventional offset-strip-fin metallic designs. Mass savings of 30 to 60 percent were projected for C-C recuperators with effectiveness greater than 0.9 and thermal loads from 25 to 1400 kWt. The smaller thermal loads corresponded with lower mass savings; however, 60 percent savings were forecast for all loads above 300 kWt. System-related material challenges and compatibility issues were also discussed.

Barrett, Michael J.↗

Development of Aluminum-Lithium 2195 Gores by the Stretch Forming Process

Aluminum-Lithium alloy 2195 exhibits higher mechanical properties and lower density than aluminum alloy 2219, which is the current baseline material for Space Launch System (SLS) cryogenic tank components. Replacement of Al 2219 with Al-Li 2195 would result in substantial weight savings, as was the case when this replacement was made on the shuttle external tank. A key component of cryogenic tanks are the gores, which are welded together to make the rounded ends of the tanks. The required thicknesses of these gores depend on the specific SLS configuration and may exceed the current experience base in the manufacture of such gores by the stretch forming process. Here we describe the steps taken to enhance the formability of Al-Li 2195 by optimizing the heat treatment and stretch forming processes for gore thicknesses up to 0.75", which envelopes the maximum expected gore thicknesses for SLS tanks. An annealing treatment, developed at Marshall Space Flight Center, increased the forming range and strain hardening exponent of Al-Li 2195 plates. Using this annealing treatment, one 0.525" thick and two 0.75" thick gores were manufactured by the stretch forming process. The annealing treatment enabled the stretch forming of the largest ever cross sectional area (thickness x width) of an Al-Li 2195 plate achieved by the manufacturer. Mechanical testing of the gores showed greater than expected ultimate tensile strength, yield strength, modulus, and elongation values. The gores also exhibited acceptable fracture toughness at room and LN2 temperatures. All of the measured data indicate that the stretch formed gores have sufficient material properties to be used in flight domes.

Volz, M. P.↗

Development of Aluminum-Lithium 2195 Gores by the Stretch Forming Process

Aluminum-Lithium alloy 2195 exhibits higher mechanical properties and lower density than aluminum alloy 2219, which is the current baseline material for Space Launch System (SLS) cryogenic tank components. Replacement of Al 2219 with Al-Li 2195 would result in substantial weight savings, as was the case when this replacement was made on the shuttle external tank. A key component of cryogenic tanks are the gores, which are welded together to make the rounded ends of the tanks. The required thicknesses of these gores depend on the specific SLS configuration and may exceed the current experience base in the manufacture of such gores by the stretch forming process. Here we describe the steps taken to enhance the formability of Al-Li 2195 by optimizing the heat treatment and stretch forming processes for gore thicknesses up to 0.75", which envelopes the maximum expected gore thicknesses for SLS tanks. An annealing treatment, developed at Marshall Space Flight Center, increased the forming range and strain hardening exponent of Al-Li 2195 plates. Using this annealing treatment, one 0.525" thick and two 0.75" thick gores were manufactured by the stretch forming process. The annealing treatment enabled the stretch forming of the largest ever cross sectional area (thickness x width) of an Al-Li 2195 plate achieved by the manufacturer. Mechanical testing of the gores showed greater than expected ultimate tensile strength, yield strength, modulus, and elongation values. The gores also exhibited acceptable fracture toughness at room and LN2 temperatures. All of the measured data indicate that the stretch formed gores have sufficient material properties to be used in flight domes.

Volz, M. P.↗

Detection of Extremes with AIRS and CrIS

Climate change is expected to be detected first as changes in extreme values rather than in mean values. The availability of data of from two instruments in the same orbit, AIRS data for the past eleven years and AIRS and CrIS data from the past year, provides an opportunity to evaluate this using examples of climate relevance: Desertification, seen as changes in hot extremes, severe storm, seen as a change in extremely cold clouds and the warming of the polar zone. We use AIRS to establish trends for the 1%tile, the mean and 99%tile brightness temperatures measured with the 900 cm(exp -1) channel from AIRS for the past 11 years. This channel is in the clearest part of the 11 micron atmospheric window. Substantial trends are seen for land and ocean, which in the case of the 1%tile (cold) extremes are related to the current shift of deep convection from ocean to land. Changes are also seen in the 99%tile for day tropical land, but their interpretation is at present unclear. We also see dramatic changes for the mean and 99%tile of the North Polar area. The trends are an order of magnitude larger than the instrument trend of about 3 mK/year. We use the statistical distribution from the past year derived from AIRS to evaluate the accuracy of continuing the trends established with AIRS with CrIS data. We minimize the concern about differences in the spectral response functions by limiting the analysis to the channel at 900 cm(exp -1).While the two instruments agree within 100 mK for the global day/night land/ocean mean values, there are significant differences when evaluating the1% and 99%tiles. We see a consistent warm bias in the CrIS data relative to AIRS for the 1%tile (extremely cold, cloudy) data in the tropical zone, particularly for tropical land, but the bias is not day/night land/ocean consistent. At this point the difference appears to be due to differences in the radiometric response of AIRS and CrIS to differences in the day/night land/ocean cloud types. Unless the effect can be mitigated by a future reprocessing the CrIS data, it will significantly complicate the concatenation of the AIRS and CrIS data records for the continuation of trends in extreme values.

sampling bias↗

Regional-Scale High-Latitude Extreme Geoelectric Fields Pertaining to Geomagnetically Induced Currents

Motivated by the needs of the high-voltage power transmission industry, we use data from the high-latitude IMAGE magnetometer array to study characteristics of extreme geoelectric fields at regional scales. We use 10-s resolution data for years 1993-2013, and the fields are characterized using average horizontal geoelectric field amplitudes taken over station groups that span about 500-km distance. We show that geoelectric field structures associated with localized extremes at single stations can be greatly different from structures associated with regionally uniform geoelectric fields, which are well represented by spatial averages over single stations. Visual extrapolation and rigorous extreme value analysis of spatially averaged fields indicate that the expected range for 1-in-100-year extreme events are 3-8 V/km and 3.4-7.1 V/km, respectively. The Quebec reference ground model is used in the calculations.

polar regions↗

Quantifying the Influence of Redox Conditions on the Seismic Properties of Olivine

A series of eight olivine specimens were fabricated by hot-pressing at 1200 degrees Celsius and 300 megapascals (MPa). Each hot-pressed specimen was then wrapped in Pt, Ni or NiFe foil to vary oxygen fugacity (fO2), and interrogated via forced torsional oscillation. Mechanical testing was conducted at 10 oscillation periods between 1 and 1000 seconds, at a confining pressure of 200 MPa, during a slow staged-cooling from a maximum temperature of 1200 degrees Celsius to room temperature. After mechanical testing, each specimen was axially sectioned and EBSD (Electron BackScatter Diffraction) was used for the determination of the representative grain size, and grain size distribution of each sample. In addition, each longitudinal section was mapped via FTIR (Fourier Transform InfraRed spectroscopy) to determine the spatial distribution and concentrations of chemically bound and molecular water. Amongst these specimens, chemically bound ‘water’ contents were observed to vary between 0 and 1150 atom ppm (parts per million) H/Si, and molecular water concentrations varied between 0 and 245 atom ppm H/Si. Our forced-oscillation results demonstrate that the measured magnitude of anelastic relaxation within the experimental ‘window’ of oscillation periods is unrelated to the water content. Rather, a relationship was observed between the magnitude of anelastic relaxation and the prevailing redox conditions, which is influenced by the choice of metal sleeving used during the mechanical test. Further, regardless of water content or metal sleeving, each specimen exhibits coupled variations in shear modulus and dissipation within the observational window, indicative of ‘high-temperature background’ behavior, that can be described by a Burgers-type model. During initial fitting of the Burgers models, the unrelaxed shear modulus at a reference temperature of 900 degrees Celsius (G (sub UR)) and the temperature derivative of the unrelaxed shear modulus (dG (sub U)/dT), were treated as adjustable parameters. For all Fe-bearing olivine samples (but not a hydrous and oxidized Fe-free sample) we observe deficits of G (sub UR), and increased values of dG (sub U)/dT, relative to the expected elastic (anharmonic) behavior of Fo90 olivine. This behavior is indicative of anelastic relaxation occurring at shorter periods than observable within the ‘window’ of oscillation periods used in the mechanical test. Moving towards a comprehensive seismologically applicable Burgers model, which includes this newly observed effect of redox conditions on anelastic relaxation, we will present our progress in reconciling truly anharmonic and elastic behavior of Fo (sub 90) olivine with our observed forced-oscillation data.

Cline, Christopher, II↗

Principles from Two Small SRM-Based Launcher Design/Developments

Two solid rocket motor based launch vehicles are in design and development at MSFC, a 4-stage Earth-to-Orbit vehicle cube-satellite launcher, and the 2-stage Mars Ascent Vehicle for the Mars sample return mission. Trade studies that refined these designs have benefited from developments in understanding sensitivities and approximate modeling. The development and practice of that has demonstrated 3 principles: PRINCIPLE I: Identify mission-specific key design drivers — particularly interactions (and focus knowledge-development on those). PRINCIPLE II: Agility — don’t lock down your derived requirements early — keep trading, and characterizing sensitivities. PRINCIPLE III: Use multi-fidelity tools to improve “understanding value generated per modeling effort cost.” The designer should expect different design solution techniques to derive from different mission needs. This paper shows how two launch vehicle designs developed and adapted to those needs.

Kibbey, Timothy P.↗

Changes in Satellite Retrievals of Atmospheric Composition over Eastern China During the 2020 COVID-19 Lockdowns

We examined daily level-3 satellite retrievals of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CO, Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) SO2 and NO2, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth (AOD) over eastern China to understand how COVID-19 lockdowns affected atmospheric composition. Changes in 2020 were strongly dependent on the choice of background period since 2005 and whether trends in atmospheric composition were accounted for. Over central east China during the 23 January–8 April lockdown window, CO in 2020 was between 3 % and 12 % lower than average depending on the background period. The 2020 CO was not consistently less than expected from trends beginning between 2005 and 2016 and ending in 2019 but was 3 %–4 % lower than the background mean during the 2017–2019 period when CO changes had flattened. Similarly for AOD, 2020 was between 14 % and 30 % lower than averages beginning in 2005 and 14 %–17 % lower compared to different background means beginning in 2016. NO2 in 2020 was between 30 % and 43 % lower than the mean over different background periods and between 17 % and 33 % lower than what would be expected for trends beginning later than 2011. Relative to the 2016–2019 period when NO2 had flattened, 2020 was 30 %–33 % lower. Over southern China, 2020 NO2 was between 23 % and 27 % lower than different background means beginning in 2013, the beginning of a period of persistently lower NO2. CO over southern China was significantly higher in 2020 than what would be expected, which we suggest was partly because of an active fire season in neighboring countries. Over central east and southern China, 2020 SO2 was higher than expected, but this depended strongly on how daily regional values were calculated from individual retrievals and reflects background values approaching the retrieval detection limit. Future work over China, or other regions, needs to take into account the sensitivity of differences in 2020 to different background periods and trends in order to separate the effects of COVID-19 on air quality from previously occurring changes or from variability in other sources.

atmospheric composition↗

Bayesian inference of fine features of the nuclear equation of state from future neutron star radius measurements to 0.1 km accuracy

To more precisely constrain the equation of state (EOS) of supradense neutron-rich nuclear matter, future high-precision x-ray and gravitational wave observatories are proposed to measure the radii of neutron stars (NSs) with an accuracy better than about 0.1 km. However, it remains unclear what particular aspects (other than the stiffness generally spoken of in the literature) of the EOS and to what precision they will be better constrained. In this work, within a Bayesian framework using a metamodel EOS for NSs, we infer the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of incompressibility K 0 and skewness J 0 of symmetric nuclear matter (SNM) as well as the slope L, curvature K sym , and skewness J sym characterizing the density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy E sym ⁡(ρ), respectively, from mean values of NS radii consistent with existing observations and an expected accuracy Δ⁢R ranging from about 1.0 to 0.1 km. Here, we found that (1) the Δ⁢R has little effect on inferring the stiffness of SNM at suprasaturation densities, (2) smaller Δ⁢R reveals more accurately not only the PDFs but also pairwise correlations among parameters characterizing high-density E sym ⁡(ρ), (3) a double-peak feature of the PDF(K sym ) corresponding to the strong K sym – J sym and K sym – L anticorrelations is revealed when Δ⁢R is less than about 0.2 km, and the locations of the two peaks are sensitive to the maximum value of J sym reflecting the stiffness of E sym ⁡(ρ) above about 3 times the saturation density ρ 0 of SNM, and (4) the high-precision radius measurement for canonical NSs is more useful than that for massive ones for constraining the EOS of nucleonic matter around (2–3)⁢ρ 0 .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evaluating Diesel/Biofuel Blends Using Artificial Neural Networks and Linear/Nonlinear Equations

Abstract The use of biomass-derived additives in diesel fuel mixtures has the potential to increase the fuel’s efficiency, decrease the formation of particulate matter during its combustion, and retain the fuel’s behavior in cold weather. To this end, identifying compounds that enable these behaviors is paramount. The present work utilizes a series of linear and non-linear equations in series with artificial neural networks to predict the cetane number, yield sooting index, kinematic viscosity, cloud point, and lower heating value of multi-component blends. Property values of pure components are predicted using artificial neural networks trained with existing experimental data, and these predictions and their expected errors are propagated through linear and non-linear equations to obtain property predictions for multi-component blends. Individual component property prediction errors, defined by blind prediction median absolute error, are 4.91 units, 7.84 units, 0.06 cSt, 4.00 °C, and 0.55 MJ/kg for cetane number, yield sooting index, kinematic viscosity, cloud point, and lower heating value respectively. On average, property predictions for blends are shown to be accurate to within 6% of the blends’ experimental values. Further, a multitude of compounds expected to be produced from catalytically upgrading products of fast pyrolysis are evaluated with respect to their behavior in diesel fuel blends.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Search for Higgs boson pairs decaying to WW*WW*, WW* ττ , and ττττ in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

The results of a search for Higgs boson pair (HH) production in the WW*WW*, WW*$ττ$, and $ττττ$ decay modes are presented. The search uses 138 fb –1 of proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV from 2016 to 2018. Analyzed events contain two, three, or four reconstructed leptons, including electrons, muons, and hadronically decaying tau leptons. No evidence for a signal is found in the data. Upper limits are set on the cross section for nonresonant HH production, as well as resonant production in which a new heavy particle decays to a pair of Higgs bosons. For nonresonant production, the observed (expected) upper limit on the cross section at 95% confidence level (CL) is 21.3 (19.4) times the standard model (SM) prediction. The observed (expected) ratio of the trilinear Higgs boson self-coupling to its value in the SM is constrained to be within the interval –6.9 to 11.1 (–6.9 to 11.7) at 95% CL, and limits are set on a variety of new-physics models using an effective field theory approach. The observed (expected) limits on the cross section for resonant HH production range from 0.18 to 0.90 (0.08 to 1.06) pb at 95% CL for new heavy-particle masses in the range 250–1000 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Hybrid power plants: An effective way of decreasing loss-of-load expectation

Diversifying variable renewable resources by combining wind, solar photovoltaic, and battery assets in a hybrid power plant can increase renewable energy usage efficiency and improve system flexibility, particularly in distributed energy systems. However, the resilience impact of these systems, particularly outage mitigation, can be difficult to quantify due to uncertainty in resource, energy demand, and outage occurrence. Here, this study outlines a framework to quantify the incremental benefit of hybrid power plant assets for reducing loss-of-load expectation during random outage events. Hybrid power plant performance during outages (considering varying duration and severity) is simulated using a Monte Carlo methodology to reflect uncertainty associated with renewable resource, load demand, and outage timing. Results demonstrate the additional incremental value from increasingly hybrid designs, in which relative capacities of wind, solar photovoltaic, and storage assets contribute to lower loss-of-load expectation than the constituent technologies would alone. The value of added wind or solar capacity increases as the plant composition approaches an equal split. The value of added battery capacity depends on the outage duration and severity, but the first 50 MWh of added storage capacity is the most valuable for reducing the loss-of-load expectation for all plant designs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Constraints on the Higgs boson self-coupling from the combination of single and double Higgs boson production in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV

The Higgs boson (H) trilinear self-coupling, λ 3 , is constrained via its measured properties and limits on the HH pair production using the proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV . The combination of event categories enriched in single-H and HH events is used to measure κ λ , defined as the value of λ 3 normalized to its standard model prediction, while simultaneously constraining the Higgs boson couplings to fermions and vector bosons. Values of κ λ outside the interval -1.2 < κ λ < 7.5 are excluded at 2σ confidence level, which is compatible with the expected range of -2.0 < κ λ < 7.7 under the assumption that all other Higgs boson couplings are equal to their standard model predicted values. Relaxing the assumption on the Higgs couplings to fermions and vector bosons the observed (expected) κ λ interval is constrained to be within -1.4 < κ λ < 7.8 (-2.3 < κ λ < 7.8) at 2σ confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The CO/SiO radiative instability in cool star atmospheres revisited

We revisit the formation of radiative instabilities in cool star atmospheres and compare our results with those given by Muchmore, Nuth, & Stencel. We have considered the combined influence of CO and SiO molecules and have computed models for a grid of effective temperatures and geometrical dilution factors for the stellar radiation. Our results are based on the analysis of the energy balance of gas elements with prescribed thermodynamic properties. Our results show that radiative instabilities are most likely primarily caused by CO, whereas SiO is expected to play only a minor role, except when the CO density is reduced compared to Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (LTE) values or the CO band can be assumed to be optically thick. The onset of radiative instabilities is expected to be strongly modified when dynamic phenomena such as stochastic shocks are present. Our results provide strong evidence that dust formation can most likely occur via a radiative instability alone. Therefore, we present a revised version of the Muchmore et al. dust formation paradigm, which also considers hydrodynamic cooling. The new paradigm is particularly relevant in cases where dust is formed relatively close to the stellar photosphere.

Cuntz, M.↗